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Wayne vs. Colston vs. Bowe (1 Viewer)

Not a fan of Bowe -- I don't like Smith throwing to WRs.

Wayne is aging and while he caught a lot of yards last year, his TDs were down. If he loses a step this year, he might fall off the map. Risk here.

Colston is the safest to be a stud out of the three. Brees throwing the ball for 5000 should guarantee Colston 1000+ with a bunch of TDs.

 
Colston

Bowe

Wayne

My logic, Colston has the best QB and offense. System is proven. Bowe is second based on being the clear #1 target in the Chiefs passing game. Its a new system, but Reid chucks the ball a lot. Wayne is 3rd basically due to age. At some point, he has to show he's human and slow down.

 
Bowe

Colston

Wayne

Bowe has played with some bad QBs in KC and still put up good numbers. I'd say Smith is definitely an upgrade and he will be playing in a better offense under Reid now. I just think he has the most upside of the 3 listed.

Colston is probably the most consistent of the 3 and I wouldn't be shocked to see him have the best numbers. But I don't think he has the upside of Bowe, which is why I have Bowe higher.

Wayne is still solid, but I think last year was a last hoorah for him. I don't see him putting up those kinds of numbers again.

 
Bowe

Colston

Wayne

Bowe has played with some bad QBs in KC and still put up good numbers. I'd say Smith is definitely an upgrade and he will be playing in a better offense under Reid now. I just think he has the most upside of the 3 listed.

Colston is probably the most consistent of the 3 and I wouldn't be shocked to see him have the best numbers. But I don't think he has the upside of Bowe, which is why I have Bowe higher.

Wayne is still solid, but I think last year was a last hoorah for him. I don't see him putting up those kinds of numbers again.
I'm unsure about Smith but hes an upgrade over Cassel. I really hope we see sometype of connection from the 2 in the next pre-season game. But right now I'll still take Bowe by a hair over the other 2

 
Bowe - this is the best QB, coach and offense he will have ever been a part of in his career and he's proven capable of doing a lot in the past. I think he's the best talent at this stage of his career as well.

Colston - Best QB and in a great system for numbers. There are a lot of mouths to dead in NO though so I give Bowe the edge as the clear #1 guy in KC.

Wayne - Still a solid WR and guy who will post nice numbers but there suddenly is some competition for the ball in Indy. They added DHB and Hiltn looks pretty good. Also, the TEs are a year older with experience and Wayne is getting up there.

 
I think Bowe has the highest upside of this group.

Wayne is the safest and has the lowest floor.

Colston's overall stats will be good when healthy but his variance game to game will drive you nuts.

Who you grab depends what you prefer: upside v floor/safe v best ball format.

 
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Colston has the highest upside. I can see him having a career year, the receiving corp for the Saints is dwindling from the days of having Henderson, Meachem and the likes taking garbage time TD's away. And Payton seems like the type of a coach who will try to run up scores just to say i love you for his suspension.

Wayne has the highest floor but the lowest ceiling. Wayne will be Wayne, consistency is his best asset and I expect to see him keep it up this year. TY Hilton's development will be a huge factor for TD numbers for Wayne, but catches and yards will come.

Of the three Bowe comes with the highest risk. Worst QB of the bunch, worst offense of the bunch, and the only team with a legit RB1 on the team. I'm not sure how high his ceiling is, I would say better than Wayne probably, but better than Colston?

 
Bowe - this is the best QB, coach and offense he will have ever been a part of in his career and he's proven capable of doing a lot in the past. I think he's the best talent at this stage of his career as well.

Colston - Best QB and in a great system for numbers. There are a lot of mouths to dead in NO though so I give Bowe the edge as the clear #1 guy in KC.

Wayne - Still a solid WR and guy who will post nice numbers but there suddenly is some competition for the ball in Indy. They added DHB and Hiltn looks pretty good. Also, the TEs are a year older with experience and Wayne is getting up there.
Bowe had chemisty w/ Cassel though, haven't seen any yet w/ Smith

 
Colston scares me yearly with his glass appendages but is nearly a lock for a 80/1000/8 stat line.

I think Hilton eats into Wayne's targets this year (he has something like 194 last year) and subsequently his production.

Bowe is clearly the riskiest of the bunch but I agree, highest upside.

I'm not big on any of them tbh, but I'd likely go Bowe.

 
One thing to keep in mind. NO and Indy have worse defenses compared to KC and will need to score all the time to win games.....especially NO. This helps get a lot of points late in games

 
Colston

Bowe

Wayne

My logic, Colston has the best QB and offense. System is proven. Bowe is second based on being the clear #1 target in the Chiefs passing game. Its a new system, but Reid chucks the ball a lot. Wayne is 3rd basically due to age. At some point, he has to show he's human and slow down.
Wouldn't change a word agree completely.

 
I'd project them all very close, with Wayne having next to no upside whatsoever, Colston having some amount of upside, and Bowe having genuine monster upside.

Bowe is only the second physically dominant wideout Reid has ever coached. McNabb was a better QB than Smith, but I'm not sure he was a better passer. T.O. certainly had a better career than Bowe ever will, but Bowe would have too, playing on T.O.'s teams. It's a risk, but since Bowe's ADP remains relatively low, I see no downside, so it's a risk I'm happy to take this year.

 
People hating on Wayne here

Elite QB

Below average def

Consistency and no headaches week to week. Ill take that all day in my line-up

 
Colston has missed a lot of practices and has said he is not 100%
I'm surprised people aren't concerned about this.
Marques Colston (foot) admitted Tuesday that he's still not 100 percent.
This injury dates all the way back to last season, when Colston battled through a September bout with plantar fasciitis. He still played in all 16 games, posting an 83/1154/10 line and finishing as fantasy's No. 11 wideout. It's an injury a football player can manage with rest and treatment -- but it cripples basketball players' careers because they have to play 4-5 times per week. Colston, an underrated No. 1 receiver in arguably the game's premier passing offense, can still be drafted with confidence.
 
People hating on Wayne here

Elite QB

Below average def

Consistency and no headaches week to week. Ill take that all day in my line-up
I don't think anyone's hating on Wayne here. These guys are all grouped pretty close together, and all pretty high.

I do think it's premature to call Luck an elite QB though. I like him and have high hopes for his future. But he certainly wasn't one last year.

 
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Colston scares me yearly with his glass appendages but is nearly a lock for a 80/1000/8 stat line.

I think Hilton eats into Wayne's targets this year (he has something like 194 last year) and subsequently his production.

Bowe is clearly the riskiest of the bunch but I agree, highest upside.

I'm not big on any of them tbh, but I'd likely go Bowe.
I view it the same way...Wayne will likely take a decent step back this year with all the rookies having more experience...Colston is still battling a foot injury...he'll play but it's never a good way to start the season. Bowe is by far the best WR target on the team and Reid loves to pass.

 
People hating on Wayne here

Elite QB

Below average def

Consistency and no headaches week to week. Ill take that all day in my line-up
Finally, a voice of reason in a bag full of nuts.

Also add that Wyane hasn't missed a game in a decade, doesn't rely on speed as part of his game, doesn't have Colston's bad knees or Bowe's nood armed QB.

Its maddening to see people post things like "Wayne has the least upside". You don't need upside when you have been a top 5-10 WR for the last 5-6 years. The upside you are thinking about is what the other guys have to get to to get to Wayne's baseline.

Has Bowe and Colston had a great season or twom here or there? Yeah. But Wayne has them EVERY year and unlike Colston, he isn't a walking injury report every week and unlike Bow he didn't have the luxury of playing the NFL's historical worst collection of defenses in the one year he really blew up.

Some people overthink things.

 
People hating on Wayne here

Elite QB

Below average def

Consistency and no headaches week to week. Ill take that all day in my line-up
don't hate but I think last year was the perfect storm for him and he still "only" finished 15th with an absurd number of targets. I expect those to be spread more among their more mature receiving core. He's also 35 so the wheels can come off quick when you start to hit this range.

I just think he's being drafted at his ceiling.

 
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People hating on Wayne here

Elite QB

Below average def

Consistency and no headaches week to week. Ill take that all day in my line-up
Finally, a voice of reason in a bag full of nuts.

Also add that Wyane hasn't missed a game in a decade, doesn't rely on speed as part of his game, doesn't have Colston's bad knees or Bowe's nood armed QB.

Its maddening to see people post things like "Wayne has the least upside". You don't need upside when you have been a top 5-10 WR for the last 5-6 years. The upside you are thinking about is what the other guys have to get to to get to Wayne's baseline.

Has Bowe and Colston had a great season or twom here or there? Yeah. But Wayne has them EVERY year and unlike Colston, he isn't a walking injury report every week and unlike Bow he didn't have the luxury of playing the NFL's historical worst collection of defenses in the one year he really blew up.

Some people overthink things.
When Bowe has been healthy, even if you completely toss out his monster year, he's averaged about 1100/6 since his rookie year. That's not huge, but it would have been right in the same neighborhood as what Wayne scored last year. It would, of course, be foolish to entirely throw out his monster year, so even conservative projections ought to be at least in the neighborhood of Wayne's 2012, before you account for the new system.

Add to which Bowe's situation has improved drastically, while Wayne lost a pass happy OC, saw a young receiver improve dramatically, and became even longer in the tooth, and it makes projecting him ahead of Bowe an iffy proposition.

Doubly so if your premise is that Wayne has been consistently better in recent years, which he clearly hasn't.

 
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People hating on Wayne here

Elite QB

Below average def

Consistency and no headaches week to week. Ill take that all day in my line-up
don't hate but I think last year was the perfect storm for him and he still "only" finished 15th with an absurd number of targets. I expect those to be spread more among their more mature receiving core. He's also 35 so the wheels can come off quick when you start to hit this range.

I just think he's being drafted at his ceiling.
I think he will still get his targets.

Through 2 preseason games Wayne has 7 targets off 22 possible throws from Luck (includes penalties etc). The problem is that he has a low ypc so his efficiency per target is not the best.

He's a safe, solid pick.

 
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Another big part of the Wayne ceiling, of course, is that he clearly doesn't have the speed to break away deep or run away from defenders any more, nor the strength and explosiveness to beat them in jump ball situations with any regularity.

He's almost 100% positioning, route running, and veteran savvy now. Which makes him a QB's best friend, but severely limits his TD potential. And it's that number, more than anything, that reflects what people mean when they say "low ceiling." He's only been a situational TD producer this decade. That isn't going to change as he gets older.

 
Colston has missed a lot of practices and has said he is not 100%
I'm surprised people aren't concerned about this.
It's like this every year and he always seems to put up great numbers.
Colston is Hyman Roth.

Michael Corleone: 'The man's been dying from the same heart attack for 20 years.'

I rank them:

Bowe

Wayne

Colston

I like them all, I think Bowe is most likely to put up stud numbers for his owner, especially TD numbers. He's younger than the other two, in a Reid offense, and has no competition really worth mentioning for red zone targets. I think he and Charles will lead the team in catches. I like Avery as an end of the roster guy, but I don't think he cuts into Bowe's numbers.

 
I know where they go ADP-wise, but I disagree with that.

I have them:

Wayne

Colston

Bowe

Wayne is still a stud, and Luck is an elite QB but not enough people are buying just how good he is. Colston is brittle and replacable with any number of targets on the Saints. Brees make that team go, not Colston. Bowe is a potential sell high candidate. Always seems to have a few early decent statlines and fizzles once the playoffs are out of reach. I don't like his mental makeup when playing out the string.

If you are deciding between these three, you are likely in the same order team, so you get to pick only one, and the next two teams have that choice forced on them. I'd be happy with Wayne, ok with Colston, and probably considering other options if Bowe was the boobie prize.

 
According to ADP, Wes Welker seems to also join this trio in the 4th round. Thoughts on where he fits here?
Welker is, IMO, just ludicrously hard to project into that already crowded Denver system. His numbers could fall anywhere. If I had to guess, I'd guess that he'll fall right in line with the group we're discussing. Probably 3rd among the 4 in both yardage and TD's, to take a stab. But my level of confidence there would be way lower than for the other 3 guys. So my plan is to just artificially devalue him and let somebody else take the risk of figuring him out.

I can't see any possible role for him where he explodes and puts up WR1 numbers, and that's the only scenario that would make me regret passing.

 
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Colston

Bowe

Wayne

My logic, Colston has the best QB and offense. System is proven. Bowe is second based on being the clear #1 target in the Chiefs passing game. Its a new system, but Reid chucks the ball a lot. Wayne is 3rd basically due to age. At some point, he has to show he's human and slow down.
This... though I flop wayne and bowe in PPR this year.

 
I'm bullish on Bowe. You don't pay a guy 55 million if you don't plan on using him a ton. He's gonna be a target monster.

 
I'm avoiding Wayne. His raw totals looked good last year, but that was thanks to a ton of targets on an offense that threw the ball a lot and made a point of getting him the ball. His 195 targets last year was a career high (and the second-highest in the NFL during the past decade), while his 6.9 yards per target was a career low. He's 35 now, and his yards per target have been steadily declining for several years:

year tar yards yd/tar
2001 49 345 7.0
2002 62 716 11.5
2003 107 838 7.8
2004 115 1210 10.5
2005 122 1055 8.6
2006 137 1310 9.6
2007 156 1510 9.7
2008 130 1145 8.8
2009 149 1264 8.5
2010 176 1355 7.7
2011 132 960 7.3
2012 195 1355 6.9

Bowe vs. Colston is a tossup; I'm leaning slightly towards Colston but probably won't end up drafting either.

 
I'm avoiding Wayne. His raw totals looked good last year, but that was thanks to a ton of targets on an offense that threw the ball a lot and made a point of getting him the ball. His 195 targets last year was a career high (and the second-highest in the NFL during the past decade), while his 6.9 yards per target was a career low. He's 35 now, and his yards per target have been steadily declining for several years:

year tar yards yd/tar

2001 49 345 7.0

2002 62 716 11.5

2003 107 838 7.8

2004 115 1210 10.5

2005 122 1055 8.6

2006 137 1310 9.6

2007 156 1510 9.7

2008 130 1145 8.8

2009 149 1264 8.5

2010 176 1355 7.7

2011 132 960 7.3

2012 195 1355 6.9

Bowe vs. Colston is a tossup; I'm leaning slightly towards Colston but probably won't end up drafting either.
But Indy's D is gonna stink again this year and they will not have a great running game given Bradshaw is gimpy at best and Ballard is no RB1. So expect lots of passing again

 
I'm avoiding Wayne. His raw totals looked good last year, but that was thanks to a ton of targets on an offense that threw the ball a lot and made a point of getting him the ball. His 195 targets last year was a career high (and the second-highest in the NFL during the past decade), while his 6.9 yards per target was a career low. He's 35 now, and his yards per target have been steadily declining for several years:

year tar yards yd/tar

2001 49 345 7.0

2002 62 716 11.5

2003 107 838 7.8

2004 115 1210 10.5

2005 122 1055 8.6

2006 137 1310 9.6

2007 156 1510 9.7

2008 130 1145 8.8

2009 149 1264 8.5

2010 176 1355 7.7

2011 132 960 7.3

2012 195 1355 6.9

Bowe vs. Colston is a tossup; I'm leaning slightly towards Colston but probably won't end up drafting either.
But Indy's D is gonna stink again this year and they will not have a great running game given Bradshaw is gimpy at best and Ballard is no RB1. So expect lots of passing again
They probably will still throw it 600 times, but I doubt that 195 of them will go to Wayne. Luck's passing numbers weren't any better on passes thrown towards Wayne than on passes thrown elsewhere, and I doubt that Hamilton will forcefeed Wayne the way that Arians did. Wayne will need to match last year's stats to be worth his ADP - he was WR14 last year, and Wayne, Colston, and Bowe are going at WR14-16.

If we drop Wayne's targets down to 160 just based on standard regression to the mean (which would still be the third highest of his career, and would have ranked 6th in the NFL last year) and reduce his other stats proportionally, then he's down to WR22. Bump his TDs back up to 7 (which is roughly what he has averaged for his career), and that still only leaves him at WR18. In order to outperform the WR14 draft slot, Wayne will either need to get a ridiculously high number of targets again (not just 6th most in the NFL), or he'll need to have his best season efficiency-wise since 2009.

There's a chance that one (or both) of those things will happen, but I suspect that there is a bigger chance that he'll do what guys like Driver, Ward, and Mason did when they were around his age and fade. The median case is probably around WR20 (maybe 1100/6), and that is paired with high risk and low upside. Not attractive in the 4th round.

 
I'm avoiding Wayne. His raw totals looked good last year, but that was thanks to a ton of targets on an offense that threw the ball a lot and made a point of getting him the ball. His 195 targets last year was a career high (and the second-highest in the NFL during the past decade), while his 6.9 yards per target was a career low. He's 35 now, and his yards per target have been steadily declining for several years:

year tar yards yd/tar

2001 49 345 7.0

2002 62 716 11.5

2003 107 838 7.8

2004 115 1210 10.5

2005 122 1055 8.6

2006 137 1310 9.6

2007 156 1510 9.7

2008 130 1145 8.8

2009 149 1264 8.5

2010 176 1355 7.7

2011 132 960 7.3

2012 195 1355 6.9

Bowe vs. Colston is a tossup; I'm leaning slightly towards Colston but probably won't end up drafting either.
But Indy's D is gonna stink again this year and they will not have a great running game given Bradshaw is gimpy at best and Ballard is no RB1. So expect lots of passing again
They probably will still throw it 600 times, but I doubt that 195 of them will go to Wayne. Luck's passing numbers weren't any better on passes thrown towards Wayne than on passes thrown elsewhere, and I doubt that Hamilton will forcefeed Wayne the way that Arians did. Wayne will need to match last year's stats to be worth his ADP - he was WR14 last year, and Wayne, Colston, and Bowe are going at WR14-16.

If we drop Wayne's targets down to 160 just based on standard regression to the mean (which would still be the third highest of his career, and would have ranked 6th in the NFL last year) and reduce his other stats proportionally, then he's down to WR22. Bump his TDs back up to 7 (which is roughly what he has averaged for his career), and that still only leaves him at WR18. In order to outperform the WR14 draft slot, Wayne will either need to get a ridiculously high number of targets again (not just 6th most in the NFL), or he'll need to have his best season efficiency-wise since 2009.

There's a chance that one (or both) of those things will happen, but I suspect that there is a bigger chance that he'll do what guys like Driver, Ward, and Mason did when they were around his age and fade. The median case is probably around WR20 (maybe 1100/6), and that is paired with high risk and low upside. Not attractive in the 4th round.
I think this is very well argued.

 
I'm avoiding Wayne. His raw totals looked good last year, but that was thanks to a ton of targets on an offense that threw the ball a lot and made a point of getting him the ball. His 195 targets last year was a career high (and the second-highest in the NFL during the past decade), while his 6.9 yards per target was a career low. He's 35 now, and his yards per target have been steadily declining for several years:

year tar yards yd/tar

2001 49 345 7.0

2002 62 716 11.5

2003 107 838 7.8

2004 115 1210 10.5

2005 122 1055 8.6

2006 137 1310 9.6

2007 156 1510 9.7

2008 130 1145 8.8

2009 149 1264 8.5

2010 176 1355 7.7

2011 132 960 7.3

2012 195 1355 6.9

Bowe vs. Colston is a tossup; I'm leaning slightly towards Colston but probably won't end up drafting either.
But Indy's D is gonna stink again this year and they will not have a great running game given Bradshaw is gimpy at best and Ballard is no RB1. So expect lots of passing again
They probably will still throw it 600 times, but I doubt that 195 of them will go to Wayne. Luck's passing numbers weren't any better on passes thrown towards Wayne than on passes thrown elsewhere, and I doubt that Hamilton will forcefeed Wayne the way that Arians did. Wayne will need to match last year's stats to be worth his ADP - he was WR14 last year, and Wayne, Colston, and Bowe are going at WR14-16.

If we drop Wayne's targets down to 160 just based on standard regression to the mean (which would still be the third highest of his career, and would have ranked 6th in the NFL last year) and reduce his other stats proportionally, then he's down to WR22. Bump his TDs back up to 7 (which is roughly what he has averaged for his career), and that still only leaves him at WR18. In order to outperform the WR14 draft slot, Wayne will either need to get a ridiculously high number of targets again (not just 6th most in the NFL), or he'll need to have his best season efficiency-wise since 2009.

There's a chance that one (or both) of those things will happen, but I suspect that there is a bigger chance that he'll do what guys like Driver, Ward, and Mason did when they were around his age and fade. The median case is probably around WR20 (maybe 1100/6), and that is paired with high risk and low upside. Not attractive in the 4th round.
Very good insight here, thanks.
 

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