Team Smokin'
Footballguy
ARSB if active and healthy enough to go, then Herbert if Monty is out, otherwise C Samuel is a good play this week. Doubs is interesting, but the other guys seem like better plays.
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Week 05 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chaka
- Start date
Starting two of AJ Brown, Marquise Brown, Curtis Samuel and Chris Godwin. Matchup dominator has AJ Brown, Godwin, Samuel and M. Brown at 12,13,15 and 16, but I'm hesitant about Godwin. I can see him being very boom/bust. For me, it's between Godwin and M. Brown along with AJ Brown since I don't trust Carson Wince at all. 1/2 PPR league.
Any advice?
Any advice?
Chaka
Footballguy
Gotta roll with AJ. Good volume on a high scoring offense. Gotta be honest, I regret sleeping on the Eagles. They have to be the favorite to make the Super Bowl in the NFC.
Samuel is the floor play but even then I think Marquise, with the stupid volume he is getting makes Samuel a non factor.
I completely understand being hesitant on Godwin even in a truly plus matchup. Which is why it's awesome you have Marquise to fall back on. Besides this may be a Fournette game in TB tomorrow.
Brown has 44 targets on the season, 38 over the last three, plays on the highest volume passing offense in the league that has no running game and is facing a potent scoring team (#4). The Cardinals may start slow but I have to imagine Murray is going to throw 40-50 times this week.
AJ>Brown>Godwin>Samuel
That's how I was leaning and just needed some affirmation. Thank you!
It'll be interesting how Marquise does when Hopkins gets back.
Chaka
Footballguy
My biggest issue with ARSB this week may have to do with recency bias. And it is completely unfair to ARSB.
Last season I was riding Mike Williams volcanic start, 30-471-6, over his first five games, then he banged up his knee. The reports were positive enough with limited practice that week, going into Baltimore. There was even a quick video of the team leaving practice and MW did a little high step for the camera. He was pretty much a dud RoS.
I know ARSB is not Mike Williams. ARSB has HoF fire inside him. He 100% reminds me of Hines Ward, which really shows up when you watch him block. He doesn't just put his body in front of a DB, he tries to drive LBs into the dirt. Dude is ferocious. He works in his craft like Jerry Rice, and that isn't even an exaggeration.
I logically understand if he is on the field we will get a maximum effort. But I still worry this ankle injury is worse than reported and he won't be able to defeat coverage as easily, turning him into more of a blocker & decoy.
ATM in my PPR I have:
Samuel>ARSB>Doubs>Herbert
Gotta wait for game day inactives before I consider changing it.
Last season I was riding Mike Williams volcanic start, 30-471-6, over his first five games, then he banged up his knee. The reports were positive enough with limited practice that week, going into Baltimore. There was even a quick video of the team leaving practice and MW did a little high step for the camera. He was pretty much a dud RoS.
I know ARSB is not Mike Williams. ARSB has HoF fire inside him. He 100% reminds me of Hines Ward, which really shows up when you watch him block. He doesn't just put his body in front of a DB, he tries to drive LBs into the dirt. Dude is ferocious. He works in his craft like Jerry Rice, and that isn't even an exaggeration.
I logically understand if he is on the field we will get a maximum effort. But I still worry this ankle injury is worse than reported and he won't be able to defeat coverage as easily, turning him into more of a blocker & decoy.
ATM in my PPR I have:
Samuel>ARSB>Doubs>Herbert
Gotta wait for game day inactives before I consider changing it.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Not to mess with your lineup, but I'm seeing Godwin climb in the rankings from a WR #3 to a WR #2 and with upside WR #1 when healthy, which it sounds like he is. He's my WR #3 this week with C Samuel on the bench because Pierce > Samuel in my Flex. Kupp and Higgins 1 & 2. I'm still rooting for C Samuel on my bench. You gotta go AJ Brown then it's close after that, Sit with M Brown and C Godwin and plug in your best choice once you gather as much info as you can.
Chaka
Footballguy
Can't entirely answer until we know if Montgomery is active tomorrow.
Problem is, Dillon rolls early.
Look, Dillon has disappointed so far but he's still getting a consistent 18 opportunities/game. It's a plus matchup and you have to expect a correction is coming.
If Montgomery is out I would start Herbert over Dillon but that is really a question of how risk averse you are, not which player is the better start.
Jacobs is an auto-start IMO. 20, 18 & 34 opportunities the last three games. He is the Raiders backfield and McDaniels is running the offense through him.
For me:
Jacobs>Dillon>Herbert
Thanks in advance and appreciate the feedback:
Standard scoring and PPR. Bonus at 100 yds receiving or rushing (not combined)
Need 2 RB:
Kareem Hunt
Jeff Wilson
Rashad Penny
Taylor hurt and Mitchell on IR
Need 2 WR:
Hunter Renfrow
Adam Thielen
Romeo Doubs
Josh Palmer (practiced in full on Friday)
Keenan out
Need 1 flex from any player not selected above - Thank You
Standard scoring and PPR. Bonus at 100 yds receiving or rushing (not combined)
Need 2 RB:
Kareem Hunt
Jeff Wilson
Rashad Penny
Taylor hurt and Mitchell on IR
Need 2 WR:
Hunter Renfrow
Adam Thielen
Romeo Doubs
Josh Palmer (practiced in full on Friday)
Keenan out
Need 1 flex from any player not selected above - Thank You
FairWarning
Footballguy
What is also bad about ARSB is they have a bye next week. I’m deciding between him, Reynolds, dobbs, and renfrew in PPR.
Chaka
Footballguy
PPR?
Tough call, I'm not 100% sure to think about Dobbins yet. He's clearly getting good usage but he hasn't done much with his opportunities. The short yardage TDs are nice and Baltimore will likely continue to score a lot but I hate feeling TD dependent, particularly when facing a tough defense.
Olave has a really nice matchup and is getting a ton of looks too. With Thomas out, again, I expect that to continue.
Definitely a close call, if it's PPR:
Olave>Dobbins
Chaka
Footballguy
Much as I love Hunt I think you have two good alternatives. He gets about 15 opportunities/game and is definitely a threat to house one, plus he's playing an average defense. He's very much a good option, and if you are a big fan then go with him.
NO has not been the great defense we all assumed they would be. And Penny reminded us all last week what he is capable of. I hate relying on it but I also hate benching it.
Wilson is going to get about 18 opportunities for 70-90 yards and a shot at a short yardage TD. He is the most locked in for opportunity of all your options.
Wilson>Penny>Hunt
Thr receivers are tough.
I think Thielen is a good combination of opportunity and TD upside IMO. The only potential problem is the Bears rushing defense has been terrible. But I think that may lead to more plays run overall and hopefully scoring opportunities.
Palmer made a lot more sense before getting one target last week (also no Keenan).
Doubs looks like he might be an 8 target/game with TD upside. The Giants d looks good on paper but they have faced Tannehill, Mayfield, Rush and Fields so that ranking may be skewed.
Renfrow may be an 8 target guy but we still don't know where he fits in that offense and I don't see a ton of TD upside. He's unlikely to house one from way out and he may be the third or fourth read near the goal line. He may be a lot better than that but I feel more uncertainty with him.
Thielen>Doubs>Palmer>Renfrow
For your flex I think Hunt makes the most sense. Too much upside IMO.
Hunt>Palmer>Renfrow
Chaka
Footballguy
This seems like a slam dunk for Rhamondre.
There is really no argument to start a low volume guy like Henderson against the Cowboys.
Etienne & White only gain potential value if they blow out their opponents so convincingly and so early they decide to rest starters. I could absolutely see that happen but, if it doesn't you're looking at maybe 8-10 opportunities for 30-40 yards.
Pickens is the most tantalizing and, therefore the most fun to root for, but this is a brutal matchup. Best passing yardage defense,seven interceptions, 13 sacks and a rookie QB. You can make the "Garbage time" stats argument and I would kindly point you to the Rams & Titans. Of course it could happen but the odds don't support it. You're hoping for an OBJ style game with multiple miracle catches.
Rhamondre and his 15, or so, opportunities against a points sieve defense.
Rhamondre>>Pickens>>the rest
Thanks for the great breakdown..much appreciated...
Wrigley
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
That's tougher. Also 0.5 PPR?
Detroit feels very much like a "must start against" opportunity. Particularly for a ~15 opportunity RB who gets more usage in close games or when trailing. But I do have a suspicion there will be, at least somewhat of a correction at some point. But that D has been so bad how much of a correction can we expect?
Wilson, IMO, is locked into ~18 opportunities as much as any RB in the league. I also think he has a better than league average chance of getting goal line opportunities, unlike Rhamondre who may get those touches but more often cedes them to Harris. However, this is a cross country roadie against a pretty good defense who has only given up 3 rush TDs (the Lions have given up 10
)It's a coin flip and you should go with your gut, but I feel they have similar floors but Rhamondre has a better ceiling.
Rhamondre>Wilson
Wrigley
Footballguy
Thanks Brother, good luck this weekend.That's tougher. Also 0.5 PPR?
Detroit feels very much like a "must start against" opportunity. Particularly for a ~15 opportunity RB who gets more usage in close games or when trailing. But I do have a suspicion there will be, at least somewhat of a correction at some point. But that D has been so bad how much of a correction can we expect?
Wilson, IMO, is locked into ~18 opportunities as much as any RB in the league. I also think he has a better than league average chance of getting goal line opportunities, unlike Rhamondre who may get those touches but more often cedes them to Harris. However, this is a cross country roadie against a pretty good defense who has only given up 3 rush TDs (the Lions have given up 10
It's a coin flip and you should go with your gut, but I feel they have similar floors but Rhamondre has a better ceiling.
Rhamondre>Wilson
ZADO
Footballguy
Yes sir , PPR
I guess my concern with Olave is the Red Rocket , but i agree , the passes will be funneled thru Olave
Chaka
Footballguy
You too, man. Ultimately, it really is luck that drives this hobby but we all try our best and, IMO chance favors the prepared mind.
Chaka
Footballguy
Dalton is one of the best backup QB's in the league. He'll spread the ball around more but he give Olave a puncher's chance.
But it is very much a close call and you should absolutely go with your gut.
ZADO
Footballguy
i do like the fact that Hill is out...ugh...i like Dobbins fire right now ...hes running like hes got sumthin to rove ...thanks for the back n forth Chaka
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Think I lean J Rob here...seems like more opportunity share and game script friendly. CEH needs to keep getting those TD's on limited volume, but he does look pretty good out there.
I guess Robinson for floor, CEH for higher risk / reward ceiling.
TartanLion
Footballguy
Anyone like Zach Wilson this week ?
Considering starting him over Stafford & Bridgewater
Considering starting him over Stafford & Bridgewater
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
RB2 slot: 6/TD, 1/PPR
Montgomery @MIN or Pacheco vs LV
Monty sounds like he could be back, but with an ankle, I'd assume it will be limited work easing him back in.
Montgomery @MIN or Pacheco vs LV
Monty sounds like he could be back, but with an ankle, I'd assume it will be limited work easing him back in.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Robinson
rockaction
Footballguy
His line is massacred. Just thought you'd like to know from a Jets fan. I don't know who they're trotting out there, honestly. I know Vera-Tucker was getting moved from guard to tackle if Duane Brown couldn't go. It might get ugly.
FairWarning
Footballguy
I see a lot of love for Corey Davis. It does seem like chasing points.
rockaction
Footballguy
Wilson's picks don't count against Davis, though, and Wilson sure loves him some Davis. We shall see today. I hope for nothing but good things for my Jets. That's coming up in four and a half hours. Will I still be up, caffeinated as heck?
You might betcha.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Good to know. Trying to sort his role out with the other higher draft picks they have. I hear them and none of them really resonate with me. I don’t watch the jets much either.
Playing Monty is risky but if he is okay he will probably get the majority of the carries. Not sure if he will outproduce Herbert or how healthy he is. Do you have any other options?
eighsse2
Footballguy
Really struggling with this one.
CeeDee Lamb @ the Rams
or
Chris Godwin vs the Falcons
It would be an easy call to go with Lamb considering the targets he's been getting. But Jalen Ramsey worries me, especially since Lamb has had trouble at times getting open and making his catches.
CeeDee Lamb @ the Rams
or
Chris Godwin vs the Falcons
It would be an easy call to go with Lamb considering the targets he's been getting. But Jalen Ramsey worries me, especially since Lamb has had trouble at times getting open and making his catches.
Chaka
Footballguy
Man, Gabe Davis, if he had simply not performed with opportunities, like Allen Robinson, it would be easy to send him to the bench but we have an injury excuse so, really, I have no idea what to expect.
I do expect Errz to get a good number of opportunities, maybe 8-10, and, psychologically I like to believe he will have a little something extra for the Eagles. However, logically I don't think that holds up. Errz won't get you a yardage bonus and he's only scores in 4 of 15 games with Arizona. I think his realistic ceiling is probably 8-75-1 with a floor around 4-40-0
I might regret it but I'm rolling big play here (maybe for the last time this year):
Gabe>Ertz
Amari is very boom/bust that's his career M.O. This week I like as one of his boom's, but they are 100% unpredictable so I can't really defend why. Good opponent, Cleveland may have to play to keep up like Houston did last week.
Love Cooks, hate the Texans. He seems to have a safe-ish floor (4-50-0) but I don't think he has a great ceiling in Houston and this looks like a tough roadie.
Amari>Cooks
FairWarning
Footballguy
I’m in the same boat and starting Montgomery, mainly because he can catch. He will play more because they really need his blocking, it’s Herbert’s biggest weakness. I don’t have much confidence in starting him though.
Chaka
Footballguy
Tough call. Honestly it's a coin toss.
CEH has been amazing and I could easily see the Chiefs roll the Raiders. His volume is low but he gets high quality opportunities and he is a bigger factor in the passing game.
Robinson has been getting great volume behind a solid offensive line and he's shown big play ability. This is also a game they should win which may lead to close to 20 opportunities.
Yeah, I'm going back and forth on this one. Total guess:
Robinson>CEH
dkp993
Footballguy
Yeah, this has been a challenge so far And haven’t chosen correctly yet. Last week I played Robinson, he got me two points while CEH went off on my bench. Lost me the week because of it.
Chaka
Footballguy
I like Wilson because the Jets don't seem particularly committed, have good receivers , a bad defense and Miami has a banged up secondary.
The problem is everything I said about the Jets applies to Miami, maybe moreso. Better receivers, less committed to the run, Jets D not good. Bridgewater is also more accurate, by a good margin, and presses the ball down field better.
Not playing Stafford against Dallas.
Bridgewater>Wilson>Stafford
GoBirds
Footballguy
Akers
Chaka
Footballguy
I think, on the most basic level, if Montgomery plays you have to assume he'll see more opportunities than Pacheco.
If the Chiefs roll, and they might, Pacheco may see another 11 opportunities with, likely no targets. Dude is still returning kicks after all, CEH/McKinnon are't ceding opportunities in most games...yet
Montgomery>Pacheco
Chaka
Footballguy
I have no earthly idea. I mean, really I got nothing to help here.
Is it PPR? Maybe Montgomery if it is because he's a bigger factor in the passing game. But, again, I don't think I can help here.
FWIW Herbert is on my bench for James Robinson and Curtis Samuel.
Chaka
Footballguy
If the games are reasonably close I think both guys are in for about 18 opportunities.
In this case I'll go with the better matchup:
Robinson>Wilson
ZADO
Footballguy
I was looking at Z.Wilson or Bridgwater
The deciding factor for me was the potential for BIG plays ,i can see Hill or Waddle breaking a long TD or 2 ,big bonus points for Teddy
Chaka
Footballguy
PPR? That's important info.
Both good options so go with your gut comfortably.
Personally I don't let Ramsey concern me too much. He seems to get burned a lot, IMO. My bigger concern, I guess is we are all expecting the wheels to fall off Cooper Rush and we are all expecting the Rams to turn things around. But none of those things are obligated to happen.
On the flip side TB could/should roll Atlanta. That could turn into a Fournette game.
Flip a coin. For me:
CeeDee>Godwin
TartanLion
Footballguy
Thanks guys. I’d somehow thought Hill was out today and now I see that he’s likely playing which helps answer the question as well. Think it has to be Bridgewater, he’s a reliable enough passer to facilitate Waddle and Hill against a poor D
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