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Week 09 2023 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

Start 2 QB league - heavy points for passing yards. Starting Josh Allen....need to pick 1 from these three
  • Pickett vs. Tenn
  • AOC vs. Giants
  • Geno @ Baltimore
I think it has to be Geno. Pickett has more games without a TD pass than with and only one game with multiple TDs. And he's busted up a little bit. And as much as I want to predict that O'Connell is the next Gannon and that the Raiders will see a post house cleaning bump in production, I think 1) it's highly unlikely and 2) I do think it will happen but we'll see it from Jacobs & the defense mostly.

Geno>O'Connell>Pickett
 
Speaking of Stroud, how about:

Stroud vs Bucs
Howell vs Pats

Stroud has been pretty mid the last 3 games (only hit 15 points once) and Howell is coming off a monster game, maybe the WFT has figured something out.

(4 pt td, 2 pt bonus for 300 yd)
The Commanders throw the ball a lot more than the Texans and they do it regardless of game script. Stroud has been more consistent and probably more efficient but Howell just does more and he is a better runner. Stroud has also been trending down a little bit over his last three games. Stroud may be a bit of a safer play, because Howell had had some very low floor games, then again it's hard to go much lower than Stroud did against Carolina.

Howell>Stroud
 
PPR League. The question is, "Start T. Spears Tonight or wait on other options?"

I have FIVE players on bye. Ugh. At least I get it out of the way at once. That leaves me with some terrible options in a 12 team league.

Options to consider over T. Spears:

* Z. Charbonnet (@BALT) -- More snaps than Walker last week. Walker not on injury report though. Tough BALT matchup.
* D. Pierce (vs TB) - DNP yesterday so this may not be an option. Bad matchup. He's been terrible. Splitting with Singletary. Hoping he finally falls into the endzone.
* K. Ingram (@CLE) -- E. Demarcado banged up as is D. Williams. Deep sleeper. There's a chance he's the last one standing.
* D. Foreman (@NO) - Splitting with R. Johnson, D. Evans. Indy did just run all over the NO's run D.

As for T. Spears, PITT getting Heyward back in the middle of D Line. My hypothesis for this game is Levi is going to get more pressure and it could be a long night for the TN offense. My opponent is starting D. Henry and D. Hopkins. If my projection for the TN holds, I'd benefit by NOT starting Spears and hope Henry and Hopkins bust.

So, sit Spears and kick this decision down the road a couple days?

Or start him because he has the best upside of a bunch of terrible options?

Thanks
People are getting too worried about Darrynton Evans. He had one first half touch, an 11 yard TD and didn't see the field on any of the Bears three third quarter drives. He didn't see the ball again until the beginning of the fourth when the score was 30-7 and he didn't do much from that point. This is Foreman & Roschon's backfield.

I have no problem waiting for Foreman or Charbonnet.
 
Half ppr

Pop Douglas vs was
Rice vs Mia
Rice, because Mahomes. Also because everything about his season is trending in the right direction. Snap share, utilization (particularly relative to the other KC WRs) and production.

I also simply can't [won't] rely on a random 6th round rookie just because he's the last man standing. If it was full PPR, I might consider it but 6 targets to Douglas from Jones<<<<<<<<<<<<6 targets to Rice from Mahomes. Being in London or Munich or Outer Mongolia doesn't change that for me.

Rice>Douglas
 
PPR League. The question is, "Start T. Spears Tonight or wait on other options?"

I have FIVE players on bye. Ugh. At least I get it out of the way at once. That leaves me with some terrible options in a 12 team league.

Options to consider over T. Spears:

* Z. Charbonnet (@BALT) -- More snaps than Walker last week. Walker not on injury report though. Tough BALT matchup.
* D. Pierce (vs TB) - DNP yesterday so this may not be an option. Bad matchup. He's been terrible. Splitting with Singletary. Hoping he finally falls into the endzone.
* K. Ingram (@CLE) -- E. Demarcado banged up as is D. Williams. Deep sleeper. There's a chance he's the last one standing.
* D. Foreman (@NO) - Splitting with R. Johnson, D. Evans. Indy did just run all over the NO's run D.

As for T. Spears, PITT getting Heyward back in the middle of D Line. My hypothesis for this game is Levi is going to get more pressure and it could be a long night for the TN offense. My opponent is starting D. Henry and D. Hopkins. If my projection for the TN holds, I'd benefit by NOT starting Spears and hope Henry and Hopkins bust.

So, sit Spears and kick this decision down the road a couple days?

Or start him because he has the best upside of a bunch of terrible options?

Thanks
People are getting too worried about Darrynton Evans. He had one first half touch, an 11 yard TD and didn't see the field on any of the Bears three third quarter drives. He didn't see the ball again until the beginning of the fourth when the score was 30-7 and he didn't do much from that point. This is Foreman & Roschon's backfield.

I have no problem waiting for Foreman or Charbonnet.

Thanks. It's looking like I now have no choice to start Foreman because Pierce is DNP for the 2nd day in a row and it looks like they are preparing Singletary to start. May be a good thing to avoid Pierce.

Looks like it's coming down to T. Spears or Z. Charbonnet. Both in similar situations.

Leaning Charbonnet because:

* Think TN/PIT could be a low scoring slugfest. That said, close enough score where TN doesn't have to play catchup and throw to Spears.
* Walker still could be banged up with that calf so maybe Charbonnet gets more than usual carries.
* Understanding BALT and L. Jackson's history of killing NFC teams, maybe SEA gets behind and Charbonnet benefits from some catchup receptions.

Agree with logic?

Thanks!
 
6 points per passing TDs;

Levis vs Steelers

Daniel Jones vs the Raiders

Thanks in advance
Man. Jones is probably the right call. BUT I have multiple concerns. I think the Raiders will see a bump with McDaniels out the door and will play better this week, particularly on defense. That doesn't mean they will be good but the Giants offense isn't very good to begin with. The defense has played somewhat well this year, particularly against the pass, but a lot of that has to do with team simply choosing to run against them, which is another knock on Jones. I am also a bit concerned that Jones could leave the game early if he reaggravates his neck. This feels like a chronic thing and I wonder if some doctors want to tell him he shouldn't be playing football. He also doesn't have his best receiver with Waller missing the game.

The issue with Levis is he is facing a very different team this week than he did last week. IIRC it was @Bri who pointed out that Levis had the most time in the pocket of any QB last week (2.7 seconds or something like that) and the Falcons apparently had multiple defensive starters miss time. The Titans apparently grade out in the bottom 5 in pass protection this year and they will now be facing TJ Watt and the return of Cam Heyward. He was able to get rid of the ball well enough when facing blitzes last week but not for much yardage (I want to say 4 of 6 for 9 yards). And Hopkins is also nursing a toe.

Like I said, you should probably roll with Jones, if for no other reason than his mobility but I don't have much confidence in either option.

Jones>Levis
 
Massive quandary! I need to pick 3 WRS and either another WR or Hubbard in flex. Half PPR.
Nakua versus GB
Cooper versus Arizona
Metcalf versus ravens
Pickens versus titans
Pittman versus Carolina
Rice versus Miami

And possibly Hubbard versus Indy

Thoughts? I’m going against a high scoring team.

TIA!
 
Non-PPR. Pick two
  • Brian Robinson @ NE
  • Moss @ CAR
  • Henderson @ GB
  • Freeman @ GB
Leaning BRob and Moss because I don't know if I trusted that LA situation even before Stafford went down.

Moss feels like driving a car where the gas gauge is on empty but it somehow keeps going. I've been sitting him ever since Taylor came back, and it keeps costing me. So if I start him this week it will definitely mean that Taylor is getting all the touches.

BRob has become the quintessential RB2. Doesn't really crap the bed, doesn't blow up. Just gets his 70 or so YFS and you hope he falls into the end zone.
I like Moss for sure. He is getting solid usage on a team that wants to run the ball. Even with Taylor back they are giving him opportunities, including at the goal line and he has a terrific matchup.

And I probably lean to Henderson as your other option. He saw more utilization and seems to be more of a three down guy for the Rams than Freeman. He was also signed to the active roster yesterday.

Robinson should be the choice here but something has definitely changed in the way the team wants to use him and he seems closer to a 12 touch guy than a 17 touch guy we thought he might be over the first four games.

Moss>Henderson>Robinson>Freeman
 
0.5 PPR:

  • WR Diontae Johnson vs. Titans
  • WR Romeo Doubs vs. Rams
  • WR Demario Douglas vs. Commanders
  • RB Spears vs. Steelers
  • RB Charbonnet vs. Ravens
Leaning towards Diontae but I hate these Thursday night matchups.
I think it has to be Diontae, unless we get a practice report from today showing Walker was limited or something.

Doubs is also a solid play if you decide to wait on Charbonnet/Walker but the news is not good for you. But his target share is very inconsistent and Diontae looks like he's going to be the 10 target guy most of us expect him to be and he has a decent matchup. He's your only true #1 player to choose from.

Diontae>waiting on news
 
In a 2 player keeper league with bye week issues (McCaffery, Mitchell, Ridley and Jameson Williams all on bye). Playing the top competition for the #1 seed. I'm stuck choosing between Jeff Wilson (vs KC) and Roschon Johnson (vs NO) in the flex, in half PPR. There are free agents like Demercado (vs Cle), Demairo Douglas (vs Was), Shaheed (vs Chi), Doubs (vs LAR) and Freeman (vs PHI)....but I feel iffy about dropping anyone for them.
I would consider Shaheed for sure. He's certainly volatile but it's a great matchup and he can do so much on so few touches.

Demercado seems like a decent enough volume play, even if it is a terrible matchup and Doubs is always good for a potential TD

I am not sure what to expect from Wilson at this point. Maybe they are easing him back into the lineup or maybe he's just a role player and every week he loses value as Achane get ready to come back. But if your going to drop him or Roschon I probably drop Wilson. I think Roschon has a bit more potential to seize a larger market share through his play than Wilson does.

If you set on keeping your guys, and are looking for a one week play I guess I close my eyes and back the better offense. That's Miami.

Wilson>Roschon
 
Start Drake London against the Vikings or jahan Dotson against the patriots ?
Drake missed practice again today so your decision may be made for you.

But assuming they both play, it's tough. Both have been very inconsistent this year. Actually, scratch that. London has been inconsistent. Dotson has been actively bad until last week. But with Samuel likely out, that could continue.

I'd go London if he plays because we've seen more from him this year
 
Let's try this one:
FFPC scoring:
Need ONE of the following:

T.Lockett @ Balt
R.Shaheed vs Chi
D.Schultz vs TB
I think you understand the issues you're facing here. Lots of pros and cons for each one. Lockett & Schultz are probably safer plays than Shaheed.

Shaheed is probably too low volume to trust completely. I love watching him blow the doors off DBs and he'll probably get at least one shot to do so every week but it's difficult to rely on those type of chunk plays.

Lockett is great. He is productive and he has a nose for the end zone. Last year he reeled off TDs in six consecutive games starting week eight after one game with a TD in the first seven. Sounds kind of familiar. It's tough to predict something so outlandish but it does bring to light that maybe you can't count this guy out, ever.

The bye week was not Schultz's friend. Was last week a bump in the road or did the Texans finally hit some tire spikes? IDK. I don't like how Stroud has been trending down as a passer the last three games but I am also hesitant to call it a trend, but something we should pay attention to with both Bryce and Stroud is they have each put up seven games of film now that defensive coordinators can pick apart. It may be time to be a little bearish with Stroud.

Lockett>Schultz>Shaheed
 
6 points per passing TDs;

Levis vs Steelers

Daniel Jones vs the Raiders

Thanks in advance
Man. Jones is probably the right call. BUT I have multiple concerns. I think the Raiders will see a bump with McDaniels out the door and will play better this week, particularly on defense. That doesn't mean they will be good but the Giants offense isn't very good to begin with. The defense has played somewhat well this year, particularly against the pass, but a lot of that has to do with team simply choosing to run against them, which is another knock on Jones. I am also a bit concerned that Jones could leave the game early if he reaggravates his neck. This feels like a chronic thing and I wonder if some doctors want to tell him he shouldn't be playing football. He also doesn't have his best receiver with Waller missing the game.

The issue with Levis is he is facing a very different team this week than he did last week. IIRC it was @Bri who pointed out that Levis had the most time in the pocket of any QB last week (2.7 seconds or something like that) and the Falcons apparently had multiple defensive starters miss time. The Titans apparently grade out in the bottom 5 in pass protection this year and they will now be facing TJ Watt and the return of Cam Heyward. He was able to get rid of the ball well enough when facing blitzes last week but not for much yardage (I want to say 4 of 6 for 9 yards). And Hopkins is also nursing a toe.

Like I said, you should probably roll with Jones, if for no other reason than his mobility but I don't have much confidence in either option.

Jones>Levis
Thanks

Yeah, pretty bad option but lost Cousins and was only rostering one QB because Cousins NEVER gets hurt and had a week 13 bye.

Appreciate the input
 
I need help bad this week! Playing against the #1 team (highest scorer and undefeated)

I need 2 WRs and a flex for a full ppr league, out of this mediocrity:

Puka @ GB (hammy and no Stafford)
M Thomas v CHI (NOS Offense stinks, hurt?)
Gabe Davis @ CIN (Boom or bust)
R Rice v MIA (KC O and his name isn’t Travis)
Lockett @ BAL (limited with hammy)
J Palmer at NYJ (high ceiling, maybe? loooow floor)

Tony Pollard (Philly homer- hate rooting for him fantasy wise vs my best beloved. Plus, PHI D is gonna shut him down and I can’t even count on PPR points)
Palmer was DNP today so I wouldn't consider him unless we hear some great news about him tomorrow & Saturday.

Puka without Stafford is not something I am willing to experiment with.

I don't consider Davis to be so Boom/Bust, or at least I would pay attention to the shift in how they utilized him last game. He was running short precision routes and peppering him with targets. It was an unusual departure from they normally deploy him on deeper routes. Was that a trend or something they thought they could exploit in the Buccaneers defense? IDK but there is nothing wrong with having a boom/bust guy in your lineup each week. Particularly when facing the #1 scoring team in your league. You need to swing for the fences, not grind base hits.

We should wait on today's practice report before being overly concerned with Lockett missing yesterday. Wednesday is a typical veteran rest day. He gets nice volume, has a good connection with Geno, has a reputation for finding the end zone and is one of the best deep ball artists in the game. If he is a full go today I probably choose him as one of my WRs.

Thomas has been a total metronome as a WR this year. 8-55 yards with a 15% chance at a TD. He's certainly as safe a floor guy as you're going to find. But I don't see a bunch of upside to him.

Rice is trending in all the directions you would hope for in the Chiefs offense. He has become their leading WR in targets, receptions, TDs and last week he led the WRs in snap share. I don't know if he's really going to be come an 90%+ full time snap share guy and I have trouble seeing him as a 10 target guy, but I think he can be in the 80% range and start seeing 8 or so targets per week. Personally, if I'm going to play a guy getting 8 targets I would prefer those targets come from Patrick Mahomes than any other guy on your list. And I am not sure any of your options are more interesting as a prospect than Rice right now.

Pollard is very frustrating for sure, but if you look at his game logs all of his low utilization games came in blowouts. Either the Cowboys blowing out the Pats and Rams or getting blown out by the 49ers. And he still saw heavy usage in big Cowboy wins against the Giants & Jets. If you see the Eagles crushing the Cowboys then you may want to sit Pollard but, from my perspective I don't think I can bench a 20 touch back.

Pollard>Rice>Davis>Lockett>Thomas>Puka>Palmer

It's pretty much a coin toss between Davis & Lockett in this scenario and I could easily see flip flopping it. But Davis is your home run hitter just a little more so than Lockett.
 
Non-PPR. Pick two
  • Brian Robinson @ NE
  • Moss @ CAR
  • Henderson @ GB
  • Freeman @ GB
Leaning BRob and Moss because I don't know if I trusted that LA situation even before Stafford went down.

Moss feels like driving a car where the gas gauge is on empty but it somehow keeps going. I've been sitting him ever since Taylor came back, and it keeps costing me. So if I start him this week it will definitely mean that Taylor is getting all the touches.

BRob has become the quintessential RB2. Doesn't really crap the bed, doesn't blow up. Just gets his 70 or so YFS and you hope he falls into the end zone.
I like Moss for sure. He is getting solid usage on a team that wants to run the ball. Even with Taylor back they are giving him opportunities, including at the goal line and he has a terrific matchup.

And I probably lean to Henderson as your other option. He saw more utilization and seems to be more of a three down guy for the Rams than Freeman. He was also signed to the active roster yesterday.

Robinson should be the choice here but something has definitely changed in the way the team wants to use him and he seems closer to a 12 touch guy than a 17 touch guy we thought he might be over the first four games.

Moss>Henderson>Robinson>Freeman
Curious how much you're factoring in the Rams' QB situation into the equation. Does it change your view on Hendu/Freeman if Stafford is out?

For me, it does a little, but my bigger concern is that we don't really know what the two RBs' roles are, and are mostly guessing at small sample sizes. Whereas at least with BRob I know what I'm getting, even if it's uninspiring. Then again, I'm an underdog, so maybe I do want more of a ceiling play
 
Need a backup for Waller. PPR

Chigoziem Okonkwo @ Pitt
D. Parham @ Jets
Oh man... no clue.

I guess I go with the better QB and hope that Herbert finds that 6'8" frame in the end zone. We just know so little about how Levis will respond to playing under the lights.

Parham>Chigoziem
 
Non-PPR. Pick two
  • Brian Robinson @ NE
  • Moss @ CAR
  • Henderson @ GB
  • Freeman @ GB
Leaning BRob and Moss because I don't know if I trusted that LA situation even before Stafford went down.

Moss feels like driving a car where the gas gauge is on empty but it somehow keeps going. I've been sitting him ever since Taylor came back, and it keeps costing me. So if I start him this week it will definitely mean that Taylor is getting all the touches.

BRob has become the quintessential RB2. Doesn't really crap the bed, doesn't blow up. Just gets his 70 or so YFS and you hope he falls into the end zone.
I like Moss for sure. He is getting solid usage on a team that wants to run the ball. Even with Taylor back they are giving him opportunities, including at the goal line and he has a terrific matchup.

And I probably lean to Henderson as your other option. He saw more utilization and seems to be more of a three down guy for the Rams than Freeman. He was also signed to the active roster yesterday.

Robinson should be the choice here but something has definitely changed in the way the team wants to use him and he seems closer to a 12 touch guy than a 17 touch guy we thought he might be over the first four games.

Moss>Henderson>Robinson>Freeman
Curious how much you're factoring in the Rams' QB situation into the equation. Does it change your view on Hendu/Freeman if Stafford is out?

For me, it does a little, but my bigger concern is that we don't really know what the two RBs' roles are, and are mostly guessing at small sample sizes. Whereas at least with BRob I know what I'm getting, even if it's uninspiring. Then again, I'm an underdog, so maybe I do want more of a ceiling play
Not really. I mean, do we really have a reason to feel the Rams will favor Freeman with Stafford out? To me it looked like the Rams sent up the white flag early and just started throwing #### against the wall at that point. I don't think Freeman's usage correlated in any way to who was at QB.
 
.5 ppr

Need 1 RB and 1 Flex out of this bunch

Z Moss @ CAR
Robinson @ NE
Hunt vs ARZ
Stevenson vs WAS
Lockett @ BAL
Cooper vs ARZ
 
Non-PPR. Pick two
  • Brian Robinson @ NE
  • Moss @ CAR
  • Henderson @ GB
  • Freeman @ GB
Leaning BRob and Moss because I don't know if I trusted that LA situation even before Stafford went down.

Moss feels like driving a car where the gas gauge is on empty but it somehow keeps going. I've been sitting him ever since Taylor came back, and it keeps costing me. So if I start him this week it will definitely mean that Taylor is getting all the touches.

BRob has become the quintessential RB2. Doesn't really crap the bed, doesn't blow up. Just gets his 70 or so YFS and you hope he falls into the end zone.
I like Moss for sure. He is getting solid usage on a team that wants to run the ball. Even with Taylor back they are giving him opportunities, including at the goal line and he has a terrific matchup.

And I probably lean to Henderson as your other option. He saw more utilization and seems to be more of a three down guy for the Rams than Freeman. He was also signed to the active roster yesterday.

Robinson should be the choice here but something has definitely changed in the way the team wants to use him and he seems closer to a 12 touch guy than a 17 touch guy we thought he might be over the first four games.

Moss>Henderson>Robinson>Freeman
Curious how much you're factoring in the Rams' QB situation into the equation. Does it change your view on Hendu/Freeman if Stafford is out?

For me, it does a little, but my bigger concern is that we don't really know what the two RBs' roles are, and are mostly guessing at small sample sizes. Whereas at least with BRob I know what I'm getting, even if it's uninspiring. Then again, I'm an underdog, so maybe I do want more of a ceiling play
Not really. I mean, do we really have a reason to feel the Rams will favor Freeman with Stafford out? To me it looked like the Rams sent up the white flag early and just started throwing #### against the wall at that point. I don't think Freeman's usage correlated in any way to who was at QB.
Oh, I meant more in terms of will Rypien make the offense so bad that you just want to fade both of them? (I suppose the counterargument is that backup QB = more reliance on the running game + checkdowns).
 
Here’s a weird one:

PPR flex: R. White (vs. MIN) or Pitts (@HOU and assuming London sits)

White isn’t doing anything in the running game but heavily in the passing game. If London sits, have to think Pitts will finally get more involved in the passing game.

Leaning White for more guaranteed volume, but it’s closer than it should be based on the lackluster Tampa running game.
 
Chaka, thanks again for doing this.
I am tired of my underachievers, so I am questioning everything.
Non-PPR

Chose two from RB's:
Pollard @ Philly, Bjan vs Minny, Cook @ Cincy or Hubbard vs Indy.

Need three from the WR/TE:
Kupp @ GB, Allen @ NYJ, Hopkins @ Pit., Rice vs Miami, Kincaid @ Cincy, Dell vs TB or Mike Thomas vs Chi.

I am a mess and do not know to start the no brainers that are no longer no brainers.

Thanks brother!
 
Guillotine league. non-ppr, need help selecting three WRs

  1. Diggs is in
  2. G Wilson also likely in
  3. C Kupp with injured Stafford or Brett Rypien.

Very short bench has only other WR Aiyuk on bye, but I could swap out Kupp or Wilson for Nico Collins or Amari Cooper.

Stick with top three or drop Kupp or Wilson for Collins or Cooper?
I don't know what a Guillotine league is but if it means you can only use each player once, I definitely bench Kupp if Rypien plays. I probably bench him regardless since it's not PPR, I could see Rypien peppering him with 12+ targets but that only amounting to 8 for 43 yards and 0 TDs or something like that. Which is fine in PPR but hurts in every other format.

It's difficult to trust Amari with PJ looking to get another start. He has always been a volatile WR so that monster 3 TD game will probably happen eventually but he's not a weekly set-and-forget starter right now so he hurts people often when they try to chase that game. It is a great matchup so worth considering at the very least.

Nico has tapered off over the las three games. 16 total targets over that span is very disappointing, I mentioned up thread that I am concerned that defensive coordinators have enough film on Stroud that they can now defend him more effectively.

I do think Kupp definitely has the highest target ceiling/floor so he probably is your safest play but I don't have high expectations for him at all. If I was going to swap him it's really a coin toss but I probably lean to Nico.

Not much real way to distinguish these guys without trying to get into advanced metrics like how they do against specific coverages and the defensive tendencies of their opponents. But I don't have access to that info and, if I did I would probably have to start charging for my time.

Wish I could be more definitive but you have a very tough call here.
 
Need to start a QB2 (Mahomes is my QB1 and I lost Anthony Richardson)
Will Levis @ PIT
Jordan Love vs LA Rams
I kept recommending Love hoping he would start to show what he did in the first two weeks. For weeks I have said "This is the week the Packers turn it around." I am not sure I can buy into that anymore.

Unfortunately the rookie is facing a tough challenge on a short week and he isn't facing the Falcons.

So many unknowns. I think, bad as Love has been, he somehow manages to find the end zone. He has multiple TDs in five of seven games. I think you have to rely on his floor over the unknown. And I think his ceiling is probably close to what we saw from Levis last week.

Levis is definitely more fun to root for ATM but

Love>Levis
 
I want to start Diontae against the titans on Thursday but who do you bench?
Kupp vs Green Bay
G Wilson vs chargers MNF
Evans vs Houston

Or use him as flex over K Walker (bal), Henry (pit), ekeler (NYJ) or Barkley? (LV)?

🤷‍♂️
I don't start Diontae. Probably under any circumstance with your options but particularly not with Pickett having a rib injury that makes it difficult to torque his throws.

Why are you eager to start him?
Does your answer change at all with Rypien? Could also start Metcalf over Kupp or Diontae.
Well, Pickett allegedly is a full go tonight and Stafford has missed two straight practices, I think Rypien is now a likely start. That puts Diontae and Kupp on a similar level as they both are probably in line for double digit targets. I guess have more faith in Pickett to give Diontae slightly better targets than Rypien can for Kupp.

Diontae>Kupp

ETA: Sorry, forgot Metcalf was also an option. I think DK is just a good play most weeks even if he is having a down year so far. He's tough to figure out, as is the entire Seattle offense at this point. If you want to wait on Stafford's status DK is a great fallback option as I would definitely start him over Kupp if Rypien is playing.

Between Diontae tonight & DK, I am a little nervous about Diontae but...with very little confidence I think I stick with Diontae.
 
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PPR League. The question is, "Start T. Spears Tonight or wait on other options?"

I have FIVE players on bye. Ugh. At least I get it out of the way at once. That leaves me with some terrible options in a 12 team league.

Options to consider over T. Spears:

* Z. Charbonnet (@BALT) -- More snaps than Walker last week. Walker not on injury report though. Tough BALT matchup.
* D. Pierce (vs TB) - DNP yesterday so this may not be an option. Bad matchup. He's been terrible. Splitting with Singletary. Hoping he finally falls into the endzone.
* K. Ingram (@CLE) -- E. Demarcado banged up as is D. Williams. Deep sleeper. There's a chance he's the last one standing.
* D. Foreman (@NO) - Splitting with R. Johnson, D. Evans. Indy did just run all over the NO's run D.

As for T. Spears, PITT getting Heyward back in the middle of D Line. My hypothesis for this game is Levi is going to get more pressure and it could be a long night for the TN offense. My opponent is starting D. Henry and D. Hopkins. If my projection for the TN holds, I'd benefit by NOT starting Spears and hope Henry and Hopkins bust.

So, sit Spears and kick this decision down the road a couple days?

Or start him because he has the best upside of a bunch of terrible options?

Thanks
People are getting too worried about Darrynton Evans. He had one first half touch, an 11 yard TD and didn't see the field on any of the Bears three third quarter drives. He didn't see the ball again until the beginning of the fourth when the score was 30-7 and he didn't do much from that point. This is Foreman & Roschon's backfield.

I have no problem waiting for Foreman or Charbonnet.

Thanks. It's looking like I now have no choice to start Foreman because Pierce is DNP for the 2nd day in a row and it looks like they are preparing Singletary to start. May be a good thing to avoid Pierce.

Looks like it's coming down to T. Spears or Z. Charbonnet. Both in similar situations.

Leaning Charbonnet because:

* Think TN/PIT could be a low scoring slugfest. That said, close enough score where TN doesn't have to play catchup and throw to Spears.
* Walker still could be banged up with that calf so maybe Charbonnet gets more than usual carries.
* Understanding BALT and L. Jackson's history of killing NFC teams, maybe SEA gets behind and Charbonnet benefits from some catchup receptions.

Agree with logic?

Thanks!
So you are starting Foreman and the question is Spears v Charbonnet?

It's getting late and we haven't seen a practice report for Seattle yet, or at least I haven't. The problem is Charbonnet has been a 25% snap share guy until last week. If Walker is healthy doesn't Charbonnet go back to being that guy? And even with a 59% snap share in a close game he saw all of 7 opportunities. In this scenario, with Foreman out of the picture I think I lean.

Spears>Charbonnet
 
Massive quandary! I need to pick 3 WRS and either another WR or Hubbard in flex. Half PPR.
Nakua versus GB
Cooper versus Arizona
Metcalf versus ravens
Pickens versus titans
Pittman versus Carolina
Rice versus Miami

And possibly Hubbard versus Indy

Thoughts? I’m going against a high scoring team.

TIA!
Pittman is an auto start IMO.

Pickens has also been playing too well and consistently to bench.

Metcalf is probably the smart option here. Been a disappointment for sure but so has Amari and at least DK doesn't have PJ Walker throwing to him. Both are capable of putting up a monster game so I'll lean towards the better QB in the tougher game in that scenario.

I don't like Nakua with Rypien at QB.

I love everything about what Rice is doing and more where he appears to be heading. He won't be Tyreek but it's reasonable to hope that he is developing into (or has already become) Mahomes favorite WR.

I haven't been following the Panthers too closely but Hubbard is apparently the #1 RB. Unfortunately it's a bad team and he hasn't been very good. What is a reasonable expectation for him? His high water mark was 90 yards on 20 touches. Then it's been 69, 54, 53 blah. He had 5 receptions in week two but has maxed out at two targets every other week. I just findel him uninteresting.

To me it comes down to Amari v Rice. Personally I am leaning Rice ATM. But I can see an argument of rolling both Amari & DK and hoping to catch a monster. That really depends on your personal philosophy.

In a vacuum
Rice>Amari
 
.5 ppr

Need 1 RB and 1 Flex out of this bunch

Z Moss @ CAR
Robinson @ NE
Hunt vs ARZ
Stevenson vs WAS
Lockett @ BAL
Cooper vs ARZ
I'm tired of waiting on Rhamondre and Robinson feels like you can't trust him either ATM. The Command definitely changed the way they deploy him over the last four games.

Hunt feels like the best bet for a TD in a game I think the Browns should win. He is the goal line guy and the Browns have given him plenty of opportunities. With Ford still limited I think 14 touches is reasonable and I think he can put up a decent game.

Moss is still seeing plenty of action, including at the GL. He also has a great matchup but Taylor is a bigger impediment to Moss than Ford to Hunt and I have a small concern that Reich wants to stick it to the Colts a little bit. Whether or not they can accomplish that is another story.

Amari is always capable of a monster but I'm not excited about him with PJ at QB. Too much floor and I question his ceiling in this offense ATM. I also consider the Browns may try to run the ball 40 times.

Lockett is also a bit of a disappointment but I favor his situation and he is definitely capable of reeling off multiple games with a TD. Tough matchup but that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Hunt>Lockett>Amari>Moss
 
1.0PPR, 6/TD

I have K. Allen (LAC) currently in my lineup, but the jets matchup has me spooked... to the point I'm considering putting in T. McLaurin (WSH) instead. Would I be crazy for sitting a stud going up against Sauce?
 
Here’s a weird one:

PPR flex: R. White (vs. MIN) or Pitts (@HOU and assuming London sits)

White isn’t doing anything in the running game but heavily in the passing game. If London sits, have to think Pitts will finally get more involved in the passing game.

Leaning White for more guaranteed volume, but it’s closer than it should be based on the lackluster Tampa running game.
I am not sure I want to risk Pitts ATM. @Bri made a great comment when talking about Pitts. ATM he's not a "generational talent" at the TE position, he actually OJ Howard. All the tools seem to be there but at some point you have to wonder if the issue is really the QBs and coaches or if it's him. Maybe it's work ethic, maybe he never had to learn how to beat defenders because he was so much more physically gifted. The bottom line is we're 35 games into his career and he hasn't done much of anything. 35 games 3 100 yard games, 4 TDs.

White>Pitts
 
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Chaka, thanks again for doing this.
I am tired of my underachievers, so I am questioning everything.
Non-PPR

Chose two from RB's:
Pollard @ Philly, Bjan vs Minny, Cook @ Cincy or Hubbard vs Indy.

Need three from the WR/TE:
Kupp @ GB, Allen @ NYJ, Hopkins @ Pit., Rice vs Miami, Kincaid @ Cincy, Dell vs TB or Mike Thomas vs Chi.

I am a mess and do not know to start the no brainers that are no longer no brainers.

Thanks brother!
You're overthinking your RBs...by a wide margin. You can talk about benching either Bijan or Pollard but not for Cook and certainly not for Hubbard. I get it but no, just no.

Keenan is auto start even against the Jets. Their D is good, not great.

I can see benching Kupp as it looks like Rypien is going to get the start and this is non PPR.

I probably bench Dell because his volume has dropped a lot and it's not PPR.

Kincaid had a nice game against TB and is a reasonable call here. But something about the way the Bills scheme last week felt different and very specific to their matchup. Still Kincaid has an opportunity with Knox out.

I have been very high on Rice this week, now I'm thinking it's unreasonably so. Everything about him is trending up and he seems like he's going to be Mahomes's #1 WR. He already is and has barely played 50% of the snaps. He is used near the GL too. He seems like a 6 target guy but with his trends I think we may be seeing 8 targets consistently in the near future. But it's still tough to have complete confidence in him and you probably have other guys.

Thomas, for example is already an 8 target guy. Like, every week is 8-55. But I don't like his TD upside as Carr is one of the worst QBs in the RZ and I don't think Thomas has that breakaway gear anymore. Still he's a fine play.

The real question is Hopkins. So hard to trust and totally chasing points but, I like a WR that my QB is going to put the ball up deep to no matter what. It's the kind of philosophy that turns a dud game into something nice in a hurry, so why not take the risk with him? At the very least it'll be super fun to root for.

Keenan>Hopkins>Rice*/Kincaid>Kupp>Thomas>Dell

*Coin toss, I lean Rice
 
10-team PPR. 5 WRs for 4 spots. Who sits?

Adams vs. NYG with AOC at QB
Addison @ ATL with Dobbs or someone else at QB
Kupp @ GB with a gimpy Stafford or someone else at QB
R. Rice vs. MIA (Mahomes!)
D. Smith vs. DAL (Hurts!)
In a way this is like the worst possible question for a thread like this, because the answer depends almost entirely on your general fantasy philosophy. I look at that list and think there's no way I'm starting Rice over those four proven commodities. But that doesn't mean I'm right, it's just the way I approach my decisions. I totally get the argument that the first three guys' situations should scare you off, especially since in two of those cases we've seen crappy production in recent weeks
I am definitely willing to bench “proven commodities” if it makes sense to. Football is too variable and volatile to assume the chalk play is usually/always the best play.
 
1.0PPR, 6/TD

I have K. Allen (LAC) currently in my lineup, but the jets matchup has me spooked... to the point I'm considering putting in T. McLaurin (WSH) instead. Would I be crazy for sitting a stud going up against Sauce?
Crazy? No. But the Jets defense is good, not great. I have no issue starting Keenan v the Jets.

Particularly as, as much as I like Terry there are tons of concerns with the Commanders going into New England. Howell has been great at times but he's also been terrible at times and he really distributes the ball a lot.

For me I'll trust Herbert do
Keenan>McLaurin

But there is definitely nothing wrong with opting for McLaurin of you're feeling it.
 
All my Lions (& I own a gaggle of them) on bye, need a Flex in full PPR:
  • Freeman off the WW at GB (would have to cut Josh Reynolds or Roschon or McManus or BAL)
  • Warren v TEN
  • J Green v LAR
  • Roschon at NO
Depending on source, my win probability for my little 3-5 7th place squad over the 7-1 1st place team is 73% or 76% or 79%. The villain is missing JJ + Aiyuk + Monty on a bye, but I also have a juggernaut that might not lose another game in 2023. Then again I've lost FIVE so who knows what magical disaster might happen; I just know I can't lose one if I wanna climb into the top 6.

TIA
Do you mean Jayden Reed? I think probably.

In a full PPR I think Warren is probably the smart play. He has the safest floor for sure even if he doesn't have much ceiling. The Titans run defense isn't nearly as vaunted as it was last year, or appeared to be early this year either. He's pretty much the Toyota Camry of RBs, safe and reliable; that isn't a bad way to start out your week.

I can't trust Roschon, can you? I don't think Darrynton Evans is really a concern. He had one touch in the first half of a 17-0 game and didn't see the ball again until the fourth quarter down 23 points. But it's just difficult to trust the Bears backfield, moreso against a tough opponent.

No harm in cutting Reynolds or McManus. There are probably 10 guys on your wire that have just as much...whatever it is you think Reynolds has. McManus is a great kicker to have but isn't there a Zeurlein or Moody type available? But if you don't want to risk either of those guys I don't think there is a huge difference between Freeman and your other options. The thing to like about Freeman is the Rams seem pretty committed to running the ball inside the five yard line and Green Bay is definitely vulnerable to the run.

Reed has been somewhat solid and should reliably see 4-5 targets with maybe a 20-25% chance of a TD. It's really difficult to say, however what is going to happen with this Packers team. You would think they want to run the ball more but that really depends on the health of Aaron Jones. He was limited yesterday but let's see what happens today and tomorrow. The health of Stafford will also have a big impact and I think we will see GB try to run more and control the game if Stafford is out. That all makes it tough to figure out what to expect.

Warren>It depends on stuff you have to wait for

I did mean Jayden Reed. Pretty sure no one is considering the Lions 7th round WR on a bye.

Nice work here, went with Warren and happy as a clam for the 14.30 off a 9.11 projection. Win probability up to 81%.

Which means - with the Lions on a bye - I can go to church whilst ignoring the London game, then spend all afternoon with wifey going to brunch, then shopping, and pretending I don't even care about football.

Newlywed 101: Of course I love doing things you love to do
 
Guillotine league. non-ppr, need help selecting three WRs

  1. Diggs is in
  2. G Wilson also likely in
  3. C Kupp with injured Stafford or Brett Rypien.

Very short bench has only other WR Aiyuk on bye, but I could swap out Kupp or Wilson for Nico Collins or Amari Cooper.

Stick with top three or drop Kupp or Wilson for Collins or Cooper?
I don't know what a Guillotine league is but if it means you can only use each player once, I definitely bench Kupp if Rypien plays. I probably bench him regardless since it's not PPR, I could see Rypien peppering him with 12+ targets but that only amounting to 8 for 43 yards and 0 TDs or something like that. Which is fine in PPR but hurts in every other format.

It's difficult to trust Amari with PJ looking to get another start. He has always been a volatile WR so that monster 3 TD game will probably happen eventually but he's not a weekly set-and-forget starter right now so he hurts people often when they try to chase that game. It is a great matchup so worth considering at the very least.

Nico has tapered off over the las three games. 16 total targets over that span is very disappointing, I mentioned up thread that I am concerned that defensive coordinators have enough film on Stroud that they can now defend him more effectively.

I do think Kupp definitely has the highest target ceiling/floor so he probably is your safest play but I don't have high expectations for him at all. If I was going to swap him it's really a coin toss but I probably lean to Nico.

Not much real way to distinguish these guys without trying to get into advanced metrics like how they do against specific coverages and the defensive tendencies of their opponents. But I don't have access to that info and, if I did I would probably have to start charging for my time.

Wish I could be more definitive but you have a very tough call here.
A guillotine league is one where the lowest scoring team each week is eliminated. Each of the remaining teams continues to get stronger, so toward the end selecting your starters is even more of a necessity because most all of the teams are strong. In my league there are only six teams left. Even though I encouraged some up thread here to go with Diontae Johnson and he was available in my league that we are discussing, I decided to go with Kupp over Diontae, primarily because Pickett has been so erratic. However, one of the weaker of the six teams picked him up and now has a 15 point score posted. It's a very fun type of league that demands a lot of time and tough decisions. Our league may be made more of a challenge because we start eight and only have a total roster of 12 providing valuable players almost always.

Great thread here and really enjoyed the comments, particularly yours.
 
All my Lions (& I own a gaggle of them) on bye, need a Flex in full PPR:
  • Freeman off the WW at GB (would have to cut Josh Reynolds or Roschon or McManus or BAL)
  • Warren v TEN
  • J Green v LAR
  • Roschon at NO
Depending on source, my win probability for my little 3-5 7th place squad over the 7-1 1st place team is 73% or 76% or 79%. The villain is missing JJ + Aiyuk + Monty on a bye, but I also have a juggernaut that might not lose another game in 2023. Then again I've lost FIVE so who knows what magical disaster might happen; I just know I can't lose one if I wanna climb into the top 6.

TIA
Do you mean Jayden Reed? I think probably.

In a full PPR I think Warren is probably the smart play. He has the safest floor for sure even if he doesn't have much ceiling. The Titans run defense isn't nearly as vaunted as it was last year, or appeared to be early this year either. He's pretty much the Toyota Camry of RBs, safe and reliable; that isn't a bad way to start out your week.

I can't trust Roschon, can you? I don't think Darrynton Evans is really a concern. He had one touch in the first half of a 17-0 game and didn't see the ball again until the fourth quarter down 23 points. But it's just difficult to trust the Bears backfield, moreso against a tough opponent.

No harm in cutting Reynolds or McManus. There are probably 10 guys on your wire that have just as much...whatever it is you think Reynolds has. McManus is a great kicker to have but isn't there a Zeurlein or Moody type available? But if you don't want to risk either of those guys I don't think there is a huge difference between Freeman and your other options. The thing to like about Freeman is the Rams seem pretty committed to running the ball inside the five yard line and Green Bay is definitely vulnerable to the run.

Reed has been somewhat solid and should reliably see 4-5 targets with maybe a 20-25% chance of a TD. It's really difficult to say, however what is going to happen with this Packers team. You would think they want to run the ball more but that really depends on the health of Aaron Jones. He was limited yesterday but let's see what happens today and tomorrow. The health of Stafford will also have a big impact and I think we will see GB try to run more and control the game if Stafford is out. That all makes it tough to figure out what to expect.

Warren>It depends on stuff you have to wait for

I did mean Jayden Reed. Pretty sure no one is considering the Lions 7th round WR on a bye.

Nice work here, went with Warren and happy as a clam for the 14.30 off a 9.11 projection. Win probability up to 81%.

Which means - with the Lions on a bye - I can go to church whilst ignoring the London game, then spend all afternoon with wifey going to brunch, then shopping, and pretending I don't even care about football.

Newlywed 101: Of course I love doing things you love to do
Bolded those two very important choices that I support completely. If you can be disciplined and completely ignore the much less important football games, you can then later watch games that you recorded and spend less time, while keeping the excitement of the games, because you still do not know the outcomes.
 
Bolded those two very important choices that I support completely. If you can be disciplined and completely ignore the much less important football games, you can then later watch games that you recorded and spend less time, while keeping the excitement of the games, because you still do not know the outcomes.

I put a lot into my fanaticism most years but especially 2023 bc this is a special year for Detroit. FF always takes a backseat to wifey & the kids on Sundays bc you don’t get the time back. If I have prepared well and used good process I don’t need to sweat, that doesn’t change anything.

Jesus is my every day must start. My day begins and ends with him, it is the foundation of our family and my rock in good times or bad. He’s never given me a goose egg when I needed him most, he’s even steadfast when I’m being a turkey and put him on ignore. Love the Lord and am so blessed by our local community of faith (Redeemer Presbyterian in Manhattan - founded by the late Tim Keller, an extraordinary author and friend to wifey for 30+ years.)
 
So I am trying to corner the market on 2nd half WR that goes off

Need 2 - .5 PPR

Watson v LAR
Rice v Mia
D Douglas v Wash
Gabe at Bengals
Shaheed v Bears

Plus QJ, JSN neither of who I am going to start
 
So I am trying to corner the market on 2nd half WR that goes off

Need 2 - .5 PPR

Watson v LAR
Rice v Mia
D Douglas v Wash
Gabe at Bengals
Shaheed v Bears

Plus QJ, JSN neither of who I am going to start
Interesting spec plays. I am not trusting Douglas until he actually does something. As a sixth round rookie being the last man standing doesn't move the needle for me, particularly in anything less than a full PPR league.

I'm kind of over Watson for a bit ATM. I think Love can finish with decent production any given week (2 TDs in five of seven games) but the distribution seems to be everywhere so you're looking for a big play from Watson. If it's a big play you're waiting on I think you have two better options is Gabe & Shaheed.

I am way, way up on Rice and I worry that I may be a week or two early on this one. But I love his production so far overall and when you factor in his season long snap share, it becomes more impressive. I think he is Mahomes's #1 WR (obviously still a distant second to Kelce overall) and I think his target share is going to go up to the eight range on a weekly basis. He has been very impressive with only an average of 5 targets per game averaging 4-45-0.4 so I am hoping to see him closer to 6-70-0.5 with big game upside. But, like I said I may be a week or two early on this one but I really like this kid.

The question is if you want to maximize your home run potential, play for the floor or go for a mix. To me I go for the mix which I also think is your floor play

Rice>Gabe>Shaheed>Watson

For the home run play it's
Gabe>Shaheed>Watson>Rice
 
Puka @ GB
OR
Ford vs. AZ

Flex spot, PPR, Bonuses @ 100 yards rec and rush, Bonuses for long TDs. thanks
 
1/2 Pt PPR- bottom of barrel as McCaffrey on bye, Achane and Herbert on IR.
my choices are..
McKinnon vs Miami
Ahmed vs KC
Dowdle vs Philly

yes gross…hoping for a TD
 
Need a WR. PPR league.

* J. Njigba @BALT -- Not a great matchup. Lockett and Metcalf cleared for takeoff. That guy Bobo in the mix as well.

* W. Dale Robinson @LV -- D. Jones back. Not sure if that's good or bad. Had eyes for Robinson before getting hurt. With D. Waller out, there could be a volume opportunity for Robinson. LV statistically tough against the pass. Could be a lot of Barkley here.

* K. Shakir @Cinci -- Had 6 for 90+ last week. Surprise. D. Knox being out clearly had something to do with it, but it could also be a shift in philosophy of throwing short and taking what the D gives you. No idea if this is the start of a trend or just a blip on the radar.

Honestly, I'd love 10+ points out of one of these guys.

Note: I'd have to drop J. Njigba for one of the other two.

Which one?

Thanks!
 
Jahan Dotson against the patriots or jakobi Meyers against the giants?
I probably go with Dotson. His problem hasn't really been volume so much as bewildering inefficiency. The last two games have shown some promise and his role & QB seem stable. Don't like the matchup at all but I think he's the right choice.

The problem with Jakobi is we don't know what to expect with O'Connell and the new OC. My feeling in this situation is if we see an offensive bump it will come to Davante & Jacobs and my crystal ball refuses to look any further. In his only start Jakobi saw only four targets to 13 for Davante.

Dotson>Meyers
 
Puka @ GB
OR
Ford vs. AZ

Flex spot, PPR, Bonuses @ 100 yards rec and rush, Bonuses for long TDs. thanks
After a full practice and the news that Deshaun is starting I am starting to warm up to the idea of Ford this week. It's a plus matchup and I expect the Browns to try and protect Desahun's shoulder and lean on the running game. I am concerned about Hunt & Strong but, if he's healthy I think Ford is still the lead back even if he is on more of a snap count than we would like to see.

Stafford is DNP on Wed, Thu & today. The idea that the Rams list him as "Questionable" feels like a bad joke. If he plays I question his efficiency even in a decent matchup.

Either guy represents a big risk but ATM I lean
Ford>Puka
 

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