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Week 17 Motivation... (1 Viewer)

Joe Bryant

Joe Bryant

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Staff member
I always find this week interesting. Our Dan Hindery breaks it down.

www.footballguys.com

Week 17 Motivation

A game-by-game look at how motivated each team will be in Week 17
www.footballguys.com www.footballguys.com

Usually don't have to worry too much about this until Week 18, but there are some key players who could get rested in Week 17 fantasy championships. And there are definitely some teams that could turn their attention to the 2023 season and get an early look at some of their younger players.

Here's what I've got for each team's level of motivation:

Cowboys-Titans
  • Does not matter for Titans who are out of the Wild Card hunt. Basically a playoff game with Jacksonville in Week 18 for the four seed. Might make sense to rest Derrick Henry and other key guys.
  • A roughly 90% chance this game ends up meaningless for Dallas because it only matters should the Eagles lose their last two games. Otherwise, Dallas is five seed. Thursday kickoff before Eagles-Saints means they likely start everyone but might get backups in early depending on game script and whether the Titans are resting guys.
Cardinals-Falcons
  • Just playing for draft position.
Panthers-Buccaneers
  • Basically a playoff game with NFC South on the line. Can bank on max motivation.
Lions-Bears
  • Lions need to win out and get just a little bit of help to make playoffs. Full motivation.
  • Bears have nothing to play for but are probably motivated to play spoiler to a division rival.
Commanders-Browns
  • Washington controls its own destiny. Need to win this week and beat Dallas in Week 18 (Cowboys may rest guys).
  • Cleveland has nothing to play for but pride.
Chiefs-Broncos
  • Chiefs need to win out and hope the Bills drop a game to get the bye and home field. Max motivation.
  • Denver has no first-rounder to worry about.
Giants-Colts
  • Giants need to win one of their last two to make playoffs. Full motivation.
  • Colts jockeying for rookie quarterback draft positioning.
Jags-Texans
  • Jaguars have a 2% chance to get into the playoffs with a win this week and a loss in Week 18. Game matters only fractionally in comparison to the big one next week but probably have to play to win.
  • Texans could lose the #1 pick with a win.
Dolphins-Patriots
  • Dolphins are in if they win both their last two (Jets in Week 18). Would need some help if they split but over 50% chance if they win either. Full motivation.
  • Patriots eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. Control their own destiny if they also beat Buffalo in Week 18.
Eagles-Saints
  • Eagles need to win one of their last two to lock up the division and the one seed. Guessing Hurts plays and this is business as usual.
  • Saints need to win out and get a ton of help - 20% chance even if they do win both - but assume full motivation
Jets-Seahawks
  • Both teams need to win out and get a little bit of help. Full motivation.
49ers-Raiders
  • Raiders are technically still alive but would only have about a 7% chance even if they do win out. Should play everyone.
  • 49ers are pretty much locked into the two or three seed (3% chance of a bye if they win out). Spot where we could see less than full motivation. Limited touches for McCaffrey?
Rams-Chargers
  • Rams don’t have a first-round pick to worry about.
  • Chargers clinched a Wild Card and are currently the six seed. Could move up to the five seed if they win out and get some help or drop to seven if they lose out and other teams win. But is it worth the effort for a team that has been banged up all year to jockey for wild card positioning? Worried about guys like Ekeler and Williams.
Vikings-Packers
  • Packers will be fully motivated. Need the win to keep playoff hopes alive.
  • If Philly wins their early game, it will clinch the bye, and Vikings will be locked into either two or three seed. I’m guessing the potential two seed combined with the chance to knock out the Packers matters enough that they will go all out.
Click to expand...
Steelers-Ravens
  • Steelers need to win out and get a ton of help but will be fully motivated. They still have a chance of keeping the non-losing season streak alive too.
  • Ravens have a playoff spot locked up. Winning their last two would get them the three seed and a home playoff game. They should be relatively motivated, but probably not enough so to rush Lamar Jackson back.
Bills-Bengals
  • Bills need to win out to lock up the one seed and first-round bye. Full motivation.
  • Bengals need to win out and hope the Chiefs drop one to win the one seed. A win this week and a loss by Baltimore would clinch the division. Fully motivated.
Click to expand...

Plus a table at the article https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-week-17-motivation
 
houston said:
Good stuff here.

Chubb, Ekeler, Henry, and CMC seem to be the bigger concerns at first glance.
Click to expand...
The Chargers as a 6th seed likely play @CIN or @BUF. As a 5th seed, @JAC. The Ravens game vs the Steelers is Sunday night, after the Chargers game, so there'll be a chance for them to get the 5th seed when they host the Rams Sunday afternoon. I think they'll play everyone as normal, including Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, and Williams.
 
Hard to fathom any team wanting to rest players in week 17 except the Tenn/Jax situation is one of the more bizarre situations we have seen with week 17 meaning nothing and week 18 meaning everything. Derrick Henry is a concern for that reason. Not sure on Jacksonville players though I suspect they play since they are on a roll.

I can't imagine Chubb or CMC sitting or anyone else unless injured in week 17
 
You guys sitting CMC vs Raiders ? ya me neither. That one is a non issue your are playing him no matter what. The #2 seed is a heck of a lot better than the #3 seed as you get a home game vs #3 seed if you have the #2 so not having much to play for I don't bye that one for a second for SF.
 
Gottabesweet said:
Great article. CMC now scares me and my Herbert/K. Allen stack.

Even the Cowboys may not go full throttle.
Click to expand...
Quiet honestly it's a pretty poor article if that's your take away and could lead to people making poor decisions.

LAC - The difference between playing Jax/Tenn or KC is freaking enormous. On top of that, if you listened to their coach and herbert after the game yesterday you would know that they are trying to get on track for the playoffs and have beens struggling to reach the level the want to be at (Note: you would know wasn't directed at you personally, however the author should know this).

SF - First of all, as mentioned the difference between 2 and 3 is huge. That alone makes probably motivated wrong. Toss into the equation that you have a starting QB that likely took minimal snaps for most of the year and is learning on the job. It's actually critical that SF continues to fine tune the offense so CMC will needs snaps with Purdy to accomplish that.

Dallas - No different than any other week. Will likely demolish Tenn. Sure the starters might not play much after hanging 30 is 4 safeties and pick six.
 
SoBeDad said:
houston said:
Good stuff here.

Chubb, Ekeler, Henry, and CMC seem to be the bigger concerns at first glance.
Click to expand...
The Chargers as a 6th seed likely play @CIN or @BUF. As a 5th seed, @JAC. The Ravens game vs the Steelers is Sunday night, after the Chargers game, so there'll be a chance for them to get the 5th seed when they host the Rams Sunday afternoon. I think they'll play everyone as normal, including Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, and Williams.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Chargers get to play the AFC South with the 5. So they will be very motivated I think.
 
Joe Bryant said:
I always find this week interesting. Our Dan Hindery breaks it down.

www.footballguys.com

Week 17 Motivation

A game-by-game look at how motivated each team will be in Week 17
www.footballguys.com www.footballguys.com

Usually don't have to worry too much about this until Week 18, but there are some key players who could get rested in Week 17 fantasy championships. And there are definitely some teams that could turn their attention to the 2023 season and get an early look at some of their younger players.

Here's what I've got for each team's level of motivation:

Cowboys-Titans
  • Does not matter for Titans who are out of the Wild Card hunt. Basically a playoff game with Jacksonville in Week 18 for the four seed. Might make sense to rest Derrick Henry and other key guys.
  • A roughly 90% chance this game ends up meaningless for Dallas because it only matters should the Eagles lose their last two games. Otherwise, Dallas is five seed. Thursday kickoff before Eagles-Saints means they likely start everyone but might get backups in early depending on game script and whether the Titans are resting guys.
Cardinals-Falcons
  • Just playing for draft position.
Panthers-Buccaneers
  • Basically a playoff game with NFC South on the line. Can bank on max motivation.
Lions-Bears
  • Lions need to win out and get just a little bit of help to make playoffs. Full motivation.
  • Bears have nothing to play for but are probably motivated to play spoiler to a division rival.
Commanders-Browns
  • Washington controls its own destiny. Need to win this week and beat Dallas in Week 18 (Cowboys may rest guys).
  • Cleveland has nothing to play for but pride.
Chiefs-Broncos
  • Chiefs need to win out and hope the Bills drop a game to get the bye and home field. Max motivation.
  • Denver has no first-rounder to worry about.
Giants-Colts
  • Giants need to win one of their last two to make playoffs. Full motivation.
  • Colts jockeying for rookie quarterback draft positioning.
Jags-Texans
  • Jaguars have a 2% chance to get into the playoffs with a win this week and a loss in Week 18. Game matters only fractionally in comparison to the big one next week but probably have to play to win.
  • Texans could lose the #1 pick with a win.
Dolphins-Patriots
  • Dolphins are in if they win both their last two (Jets in Week 18). Would need some help if they split but over 50% chance if they win either. Full motivation.
  • Patriots eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. Control their own destiny if they also beat Buffalo in Week 18.
Eagles-Saints
  • Eagles need to win one of their last two to lock up the division and the one seed. Guessing Hurts plays and this is business as usual.
  • Saints need to win out and get a ton of help - 20% chance even if they do win both - but assume full motivation
Jets-Seahawks
  • Both teams need to win out and get a little bit of help. Full motivation.
49ers-Raiders
  • Raiders are technically still alive but would only have about a 7% chance even if they do win out. Should play everyone.
  • 49ers are pretty much locked into the two or three seed (3% chance of a bye if they win out). Spot where we could see less than full motivation. Limited touches for McCaffrey?
Rams-Chargers
  • Rams don’t have a first-round pick to worry about.
  • Chargers clinched a Wild Card and are currently the six seed. Could move up to the five seed if they win out and get some help or drop to seven if they lose out and other teams win. But is it worth the effort for a team that has been banged up all year to jockey for wild card positioning? Worried about guys like Ekeler and Williams.
Vikings-Packers
  • Packers will be fully motivated. Need the win to keep playoff hopes alive.
  • If Philly wins their early game, it will clinch the bye, and Vikings will be locked into either two or three seed. I’m guessing the potential two seed combined with the chance to knock out the Packers matters enough that they will go all out.
Click to expand...
Steelers-Ravens
  • Steelers need to win out and get a ton of help but will be fully motivated. They still have a chance of keeping the non-losing season streak alive too.
  • Ravens have a playoff spot locked up. Winning their last two would get them the three seed and a home playoff game. They should be relatively motivated, but probably not enough so to rush Lamar Jackson back.
Bills-Bengals
  • Bills need to win out to lock up the one seed and first-round bye. Full motivation.
  • Bengals need to win out and hope the Chiefs drop one to win the one seed. A win this week and a loss by Baltimore would clinch the division. Fully motivated.
Click to expand...

Plus a table at the article https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-week-17-motivation
Click to expand...
I love love LOVE this article!

I’ve been wondering about this for a week now - perfect timing. It’s great to see that basically all of my key players are “full motivation” while my opponent has quite a few “might rest/limit this player” options.

Thanks!
 
I might not agree with all the calls, but having something like this in one spot makes a ton of sense. Even more so for next week (I don't have any week 18 finals but for those that do, big time).
 
I can tell you this, and it’s from a NFL player- the media may think it’s more important for a team to play/avoid teams. To the team, it’s more important that they are healthy. There will be plenty of spots where coaches and players will try to achieve personal goals for bonuses though. The great news from a Vegas perspective is they add this must-win narrative to the line.
 
It's stuff like this that makes me wonder if it isn't a good idea to make fantasy PLAYOFFS best ball even if the regular season is lineup driven.

Most of us prefer doing lineups, but maybe it doesn't make sense to add these extra and complicated factors into the decision making during the most important games of the year? When auto starts like Henry become agonizing decisions I feel like it takes away some of the joy....that's not where the tough decisions are supposed to be.


Just spitballing.
 
renesauz said:
It's stuff like this that makes me wonder if it isn't a good idea to make fantasy PLAYOFFS best ball even if the regular season is lineup driven.

Most of us prefer doing lineups, but maybe it doesn't make sense to add these extra and complicated factors into the decision making during the most important games of the year? When auto starts like Henry become agonizing decisions I feel like it takes away some of the joy....that's not where the tough decisions are supposed to be.


Just spitballing.
Click to expand...

My initial fantasy commish gut take on an 18-week NFL season was no problem. We'll just ignore the extra week, maintain our perfect 14-team round robin and keep fantasy playoffs in weeks 14, 15, & 16. Any small risk of an NFL teams shutting things down in the penultimate week has now completely vanished.

...and then my fantasy football nirvana was shattered by the decision to make week 14 NFL bye weeks a thing.

Instead I have an imbalanced schedule in my 14-team league, I'm writing a healthy D. Henry out of my lineup in championship week, expecting a lighter workload for CMC, and now I'm also learning that Zeke, the RB I acquired to avert any disaster such as these to Henry and CMC... oh, his team doesn't have much to play for either.


This hobby and the amount of time and effort I'm putting into it, is really making me ask some questions in 2022.
 
renesauz said:
It's stuff like this that makes me wonder if it isn't a good idea to make fantasy PLAYOFFS best ball even if the regular season is lineup driven.

Most of us prefer doing lineups, but maybe it doesn't make sense to add these extra and complicated factors into the decision making during the most important games of the year? When auto starts like Henry become agonizing decisions I feel like it takes away some of the joy....that's not where the tough decisions are supposed to be.


Just spitballing.
Click to expand...
If anything it just justifies switching back to only playing 16 weeks. More likely to have good players play in the champ game if it's week 16 than 17.
 
Insein said:
renesauz said:
It's stuff like this that makes me wonder if it isn't a good idea to make fantasy PLAYOFFS best ball even if the regular season is lineup driven.

Most of us prefer doing lineups, but maybe it doesn't make sense to add these extra and complicated factors into the decision making during the most important games of the year? When auto starts like Henry become agonizing decisions I feel like it takes away some of the joy....that's not where the tough decisions are supposed to be.


Just spitballing.
Click to expand...
If anything it just justifies switching back to only playing 16 weeks. More likely to have good players play in the champ game if it's week 16 than 17.
Click to expand...

... Except for the week 14 byes. Would hate to make the playoffs but my stud has the week off in Round 1.
 
Insein said:
renesauz said:
It's stuff like this that makes me wonder if it isn't a good idea to make fantasy PLAYOFFS best ball even if the regular season is lineup driven.

Most of us prefer doing lineups, but maybe it doesn't make sense to add these extra and complicated factors into the decision making during the most important games of the year? When auto starts like Henry become agonizing decisions I feel like it takes away some of the joy....that's not where the tough decisions are supposed to be.


Just spitballing.
Click to expand...
If anything it just justifies switching back to only playing 16 weeks. More likely to have good players play in the champ game if it's week 16 than 17.
Click to expand...
Agreed except for the great point brought up above about the week 14 byes still occurring. Would suck to have key guys out for first week of playoffs. Yeah I guess plan accordingly and have depth etc but that still stinks royally.
 
Runkle said:
Insein said:
renesauz said:
It's stuff like this that makes me wonder if it isn't a good idea to make fantasy PLAYOFFS best ball even if the regular season is lineup driven.

Most of us prefer doing lineups, but maybe it doesn't make sense to add these extra and complicated factors into the decision making during the most important games of the year? When auto starts like Henry become agonizing decisions I feel like it takes away some of the joy....that's not where the tough decisions are supposed to be.


Just spitballing.
Click to expand...
If anything it just justifies switching back to only playing 16 weeks. More likely to have good players play in the champ game if it's week 16 than 17.
Click to expand...

... Except for the week 14 byes. Would hate to make the playoffs but my stud has the week off in Round 1.
Click to expand...
Yea forgot they do that now. Good point.
 
Insein said:
renesauz said:
It's stuff like this that makes me wonder if it isn't a good idea to make fantasy PLAYOFFS best ball even if the regular season is lineup driven.

Most of us prefer doing lineups, but maybe it doesn't make sense to add these extra and complicated factors into the decision making during the most important games of the year? When auto starts like Henry become agonizing decisions I feel like it takes away some of the joy....that's not where the tough decisions are supposed to be.


Just spitballing.
Click to expand...
If anything it just justifies switching back to only playing 16 weeks. More likely to have good players play in the champ game if it's week 16 than 17.
Click to expand...
Which would work, except that having byes during round 1 is even worse
 
Runkle said:
Insein said:
renesauz said:
It's stuff like this that makes me wonder if it isn't a good idea to make fantasy PLAYOFFS best ball even if the regular season is lineup driven.

Most of us prefer doing lineups, but maybe it doesn't make sense to add these extra and complicated factors into the decision making during the most important games of the year? When auto starts like Henry become agonizing decisions I feel like it takes away some of the joy....that's not where the tough decisions are supposed to be.


Just spitballing.
Click to expand...
If anything it just justifies switching back to only playing 16 weeks. More likely to have good players play in the champ game if it's week 16 than 17.
Click to expand...

... Except for the week 14 byes. Would hate to make the playoffs but my stud has the week off in Round 1.
Click to expand...
At the same time, your stud is contributing for every single week of the regular season and increases your chances of making the playoffs accordingly. It's swings and roundabouts. You can see the schedule in advance, if you don't want a player to sit round one, draft someone else. Sure, it sucks if you have a player traded to someone with a week 14 bye, but if you're relying on Chase Claypool...
 
Yes, but the byes are known ahead of time by everyone in the league. You can factor that into the draft price. No surprises.
 
Runkle said:
Insein said:
renesauz said:
It's stuff like this that makes me wonder if it isn't a good idea to make fantasy PLAYOFFS best ball even if the regular season is lineup driven.

Most of us prefer doing lineups, but maybe it doesn't make sense to add these extra and complicated factors into the decision making during the most important games of the year? When auto starts like Henry become agonizing decisions I feel like it takes away some of the joy....that's not where the tough decisions are supposed to be.


Just spitballing.
Click to expand...
If anything it just justifies switching back to only playing 16 weeks. More likely to have good players play in the champ game if it's week 16 than 17.
Click to expand...

... Except for the week 14 byes. Would hate to make the playoffs but my stud has the week off in Round 1.
Click to expand...
Well, if you know that ahead of time......
Seriously though, why the week 14 byes? Dumb
 
Considering shutting down Henry. I see no reason why they would risk him, so maybe he plays a half at best against a Dallas D that will key on him for sure. I think Kirk is another sit, but I was planning on that anyways.
 
Gold Fox said:
Yes, but the byes are known ahead of time by everyone in the league. You can factor that into the draft price. No surprises.
Click to expand...
Draft price?

Some (I'd say MANY) of us play mostly dynasty. I have no idea who will have byes in week 14 next year. Regardless....I loathe the idea of byes during playoffs.
 
crushedspirit said:
Considering shutting down Henry. I see no reason why they would risk him, so maybe he plays a half at best against a Dallas D that will key on him for sure. I think Kirk is another sit, but I was planning on that anyways.
Click to expand...
Henry now listed as doubtful.
 
In the end, this is a problem we face every year though. There's almost always a handful of teams with little to nothing to play for with 2 weeks left.
 
renesauz said:
In the end, this is a problem we face every year though. There's almost always a handful of teams with little to nothing to play for with 2 weeks left.
Click to expand...

Obviously the answer is to have your championship in week 1 when everyone is fresh and healthy, then play the rest of the games to earn the spot (whoever wins the most in weeks 2-18 gets their week 1 points in the super bowl).
 
  • A roughly 90% chance this game ends up meaningless for Dallas because it only matters should the Eagles lose their last two games. Otherwise, Dallas is five seed. Thursday kickoff before Eagles-Saints means they likely start everyone but might get backups in early depending on game script and whether the Titans are resting guys.
Click to expand...

And the reality was Dak, Lamb, and Schultz lighting it up in the last third game. Everyone knows one of those guys that has to speak on every subject even when they aren't adding value...this article is that guy. It's one thing to stick with facts like team X and clinched and the coach has said they will rest players and quite another to assume you know what another's motivation might be.
 
BassNBrew said:
  • A roughly 90% chance this game ends up meaningless for Dallas because it only matters should the Eagles lose their last two games. Otherwise, Dallas is five seed. Thursday kickoff before Eagles-Saints means they likely start everyone but might get backups in early depending on game script and whether the Titans are resting guys.
Click to expand...

And the reality was Dak, Lamb, and Schultz lighting it up in the last third game. Everyone knows one of those guys that has to speak on every subject even when they aren't adding value...this article is that guy. It's one thing to stick with facts like team X and clinched and the coach has said they will rest players and quite another to assume you know what another's motivation might be
Click to expand...
I wasn't worried about the Cowboys mindset, but I was worried the Titans would be so uncompetitive that Dallas would pivot to a don't screw this up offense and try to win 20-6. Thankfully Tennessee did just enough to not put Dallas in such a script. The only one of the main 4 that could be justified as a bench was Dak though.
 
  • 49ers are pretty much locked into the two or three seed (3% chance of a bye if they win out). Spot where we could see less than full motivation. Limited touches for McCaffrey?
  • Chargers clinched a Wild Card and are currently the six seed. Could move up to the five seed if they win out and get some help or drop to seven if they lose out and other teams win. But is it worth the effort for a team that has been banged up all year to jockey for wild card positioning? Worried about guys like Ekeler and Williams.
Click to expand...
Maybe this article should be shelved until week 18 next year. Potentially cost people a title if they got cute and sat guys like CMac and Ekeler. If you're going to counter that you don't sit your studs then what's the point discussing motivation.
 
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