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Week 2 waiver wire (1 Viewer)

I only had a couple of new draft leagues this year and I had already evolved my strategy and it has paid off early.  I avoided RB in the early rounds and then loaded heavy on them after that.  Time will tell but I got a lot of lower tier starters and short term early starters like Ware and DeAngelo.  I figured to run them until the starters were back and then look to fill holes from there.
Yeah that is kindof where I was going with that, I just think now the people that are serious and pay attention will all start to do this now.  No sense in wasting a pick from rounds 1-4ish on a Running back where there are good odds they are going to miss significant time.  Just wonder how to adjust the zero RB strategy if everyone is doing it

 
If anyone is interested I put together a spreadsheet with players snaps, utilization and etc. to get a better look at the landscape before waivers run. Based purely on snaps and utilization, I'm looking at the following in deeper leagues..

Doctson - played on 28% of snaps (33% increase from week 1), saw 5 targets and 3 RZ looks

Perriman - played on 41% of snaps (32% increase), saw 5 targets

Ferguson - played on 37% of snaps (118% increase), saw 4 targets and 2 carries
Just want to say this is some excellent work. Thanks SSND.  :thumbup:

 
That doesn't sound too good to me.  New McKinnon or Asiata owners may be pretty happy...
I had an opportunity to go after Asiata, I decided to go with Washington instead. Washington's situation may be longer lasting. What I don't like about the MIN situation is that even AP didn't have any room to run. He was struggling and I don't think it was necessarily father time catching up with him. So now there are 2 guys that we aren't sure of how their shares are going to be divided, running in an offense that hasn't been very productive on the ground yet this year. Even if AP is out a while, I'm not sure how excited I would be to have either of these guys.

 
If anyone is interested I put together a spreadsheet with players snaps, utilization and etc. to get a better look at the landscape before waivers run. Based purely on snaps and utilization, I'm looking at the following in deeper leagues..

Doctson - played on 28% of snaps (33% increase from week 1), saw 5 targets and 3 RZ looks

Perriman - played on 41% of snaps (32% increase), saw 5 targets

Ferguson - played on 37% of snaps (118% increase), saw 4 targets and 2 carries
Could you put Filters on the headers?

 
Yeah that is kindof where I was going with that, I just think now the people that are serious and pay attention will all start to do this now.  No sense in wasting a pick from rounds 1-4ish on a Running back where there are good odds they are going to miss significant time.  Just wonder how to adjust the zero RB strategy if everyone is doing it
My first 4 picks were David Johnson, Mike Evans, CJ Anderson & Matt Forte... Will it work out for 15 weeks? I don't know but its worked out a lot better than the guy who started his draft: Gronk, Keenan Allen, Cobb, manny Sanders. 

 
Ferguson - played on 37% of snaps (118% increase), saw 4 targets and 2 carries
This is not an insignificant trend in my view re: Ferguson. 

From footballoutsiders.com:

Week 1: 


Player


Team


Position


Started


Total Snaps


Off Snaps


Off Snap Pct


Def Snaps


Def Snap Pct


ST Snaps


ST Snap Pct


34-J.Ferguson


IND


RB


NO


23


12


17%


0


0%


11


33%


33-R.Turbin


IND


RB


NO


29


12


17%


0


0%


17


52%


28-J.Todman


IND


RB


NO


16


0


0%


0


0%


16


48%


23-F.Gore


IND


RB


YES


48


48


69%


0


0%


0


0%



Week 2: 


Player


Team


Position


Started


Total Snaps


Off Snaps


Off Snap Pct


Def Snaps


Def Snap Pct


ST Snaps


ST Snap Pct


34-J.Ferguson


IND


RB


NO


41


27


37%


0


0%


14


47%


33-R.Turbin


IND


RB


NO


21


12


16%


0


0%


9


30%


28-J.Todman


IND


RB


NO


18


0


0%


0


0%


18


60%


23-F.Gore


IND


RB


YES


34


34


47%


0


0%


0


0%



It's only one week of trend, but Ferguson's snaps went up considerably in week 2 at the expense of Gore, not Turbin (whose offensive snaps stayed the same).

If Gore continues to struggle and wear down, it might not even take an injury to Gore for Ferguson to be fantasy relevant.

 
I had an opportunity to go after Asiata, I decided to go with Washington instead. Washington's situation may be longer lasting. What I don't like about the MIN situation is that even AP didn't have any room to run. He was struggling and I don't think it was necessarily father time catching up with him. So now there are 2 guys that we aren't sure of how their shares are going to be divided, running in an offense that hasn't been very productive on the ground yet this year. Even if AP is out a while, I'm not sure how excited I would be to have either of these guys.
Well yeah - I'd rather own Washington... have you been to his thread?  I'm driving that bandwagon...

But I think with the Peterson surgery, someone's going to emerge in MN too, and I've kinda got a hunch that Asiata is going to be more valuable than McKinnon.

 
Well yeah - I'd rather own Washington... have you been to his thread?  I'm driving that bandwagon...

But I think with the Peterson surgery, someone's going to emerge in MN too, and I've kinda got a hunch that Asiata is going to be more valuable than McKinnon.
I just posted there.

Of course this news for AP posted after WW was done. Asiata was snagged up at the same time I got Washington after WW was done. A lot of people drool over McKinnon, but Asiata has the track record of getting the looks. I've seen reports about one guy getting 60% of the carries and other reports that the other guy will get that amount. We won't know until gameday.

After AP's crazy injury recover before, I had a feeling he wasn't going to be out as long. I'm kicking myself for not snagging Asiata as well, but I guess the run offense still hasn't looked good. The entire team has 50 carries for 95 yards right now. The opportunities will be there, and there will be some sort of split going on, but the production I'm not sure is going to come. Their next 4 games are not easy either. They play Carolina, Giants (who stifled Ingram & Ezekiel Elliiot so far), Houston, and the Eagles (who I predicted to be a sleeper D due to Jim Schwartz).

It's possible that the bad running efficiency continues and whoever turns out to be getting the opportunities could be dropped in some of these leagues after that bad 4 game stretch.

 
I think after this season entire strategies of fantasy will evolve.  The incredible slew of injuries carried over from last year must make one reevaluate how a person drafts.  I know AA wasnt that highly drafted I am just speaking in generalities.  Seems like a ton of RB's are getting popped just 2 weeks in. 
By all means, draft them early and often.

 
This is not an insignificant trend in my view re: Ferguson.

It's only one week of trend, but Ferguson's snaps went up considerably in week 2 at the expense of Gore, not Turbin (whose offensive snaps stayed the same).

If Gore continues to struggle and wear down, it might not even take an injury to Gore for Ferguson to be fantasy relevant.
People are off him because of his preseason but I liked what I saw from him vs. DEN or at least the way he was utilized as it pertains to PPR. Plus, Moncrief is done for 4-6 weeks which may be conducive to him receiving even more work in the passing game. He had two catch and runs last week where it looked like he was born to make the first defender miss. I'll likely be uploading a video sooner than later.

 
Crazy to drop bilal for asiata in standard ?
I wouldn't. Given the OL blocking (which has been horrendous) neither back may do much in FF. According to FootballOutsiders, MIN is the worst run blocking OL in the league right now. 

 
Crazy to drop bilal for asiata in standard ?
I'm trying like hell to convince the Forte owner to trade me for him so I don't have to.  Forte can't keep up this pace, can he?

eta---not for Asiata but any other upside guy, ie Dixon

 
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People are off him because of his preseason but I liked what I saw from him vs. DEN or at least the way he was utilized as it pertains to PPR. Plus, Moncrief is done for 4-6 weeks which may be conducive to him receiving even more work in the passing game. He had two catch and runs last week where it looked like he was born to make the first defender miss. I'll likely be uploading a video sooner than later.
It would be cool if there was a way I could follow new topics you create so I can see when these videos get uploaded

 
I'm trying like hell to convince the Forte owner to trade me for him so I don't have to.  Forte can't keep up this pace, can he?
I didn't see his week 1 performance but his totals for the Bills game were misleading. He was bottled up for most of the game. I still don't believe he scored that 1st TD, but it was the pass game that got the ball down the field. When they got close they gave it to Forte, but I wouldn't expect that to be a trend. He didn't have much success running until the Bills knew they were going to run (figure that one out). Otherwise he was contained throughout the day for the most part. Like I said, not sure how he did against the Bengals but didn't see anything that light the world on fire in week 2.

 
I wouldn't. Given the OL blocking (which has been horrendous) neither back may do much in FF. According to FootballOutsiders, MIN is the worst run blocking OL in the league right now. 
To late lol. I may regret it but even if forte goes down I just don't think Powell is very good. Asiata isn't either don't get me wrong but in standard i see more red zone chances for the purple sloth.

 
I'm trying like hell to convince the Forte owner to trade me for him so I don't have to. Forte can't keep up this pace, can he?
He's on pace for 462 touches which is almost certainly unsustainable.

It would be cool if there was a way I could follow new topics you create so I can see when these videos get uploaded
I post links to the vids in this thread. It'll be bumped up sometime today. Plus, here's a link to the channel.

Thoughts on dropping Booker for Asiata. I already have McKinnon.
That's a tough one. I still think Booker is one of the premiere handcuffs right now. If I'm a CJA owner, getting him on my roster would be my top priority.

It depends on what you need. If you need production now I suppose you could pick up Asiata but yeah, Booker is still one of my favorite lottery tickets.

 
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McKinnon or Dwayne Washington?
I won't tell anybody who to pick up as it could go either way.

McKinnon was just named the starter. AP is going to be out for the season most likely. 3-4 month timeframe is what was given but that could be early or late, we don't know. So it's difficult to assess which situation is going to be long-term as Abdullah could return from IR depending on his recovery. So both could be short or long term, it's a crap shoot.

As for production, the Lions actually run the ball better than Minnesota, let that sink in for a minute. Minnesota has carried the ball 50 times for 95 total yards on the season so far. Surprisingly the team is 2-0 right now.

Riddick is going to be the pass catching, 3rd down back for Detroit. So Washington is likely to be primarily out there on 1st & 2nd, although Riddick will steal some of those snaps as well. Washington was the GL back so that shouldn't change. McKinnon was named the starter, but Asiata is also going to be there to potentially steal some snaps/carries as well. I would expect some sort of committee in both situations.

Based on production thus far in the run game and the upcoming schedule for Minnesota (@CAR, NYG, HOU, @PHI) I am inclined to think Washington is the better play. The Giants have kept Ingram and Ezekiel Elliot (with the #1 OL in the league) contained. Philly is a much improved defense thanks to new DC Jim Schwartz (the same DC that made Buffalo a top 10 defense). Bad production + tough schedule = tough sell for me.

 
My gut tells me to pick Washington over McKinnon. We already have a pretty good idea of what's going to happen with McKinnon (based on 2014). And I think I'd rather take a shot at the potential for a stud, rather than settle for the 6-7 points per game I'd likely get out of McKinnon.

 
My gut tells me to pick Washington over McKinnon. We already have a pretty good idea of what's going to happen with McKinnon (based on 2014). And I think I'd rather take a shot at the potential for a stud, rather than settle for the 6-7 points per game I'd likely get out of McKinnon.
I would prefer Washington to McKinnon...

 
Vikings o-line wasn't getting much push with AP in the backfield, I dont know if things will change for Mckinnon/Asiata/Hillman. I'd rather have Washington.

 
Vikings o-line wasn't getting much push with AP in the backfield, I dont know if things will change for Mckinnon/Asiata/Hillman. I'd rather have Washington.
The other teams were stacking the box with Peterson. That won't happen with McKinnon which should open up the run game now that Bradford has opened up the passing game.  Looking at 2014 may not tell you much as McKinnon was a rookie learning the position then since he was a QB in college and he really didn't do much until the very end of the season.  Washington still has Zenner in front of him and a very capable Riddick hanging around.  I'll take McKinnon over Washington.

 
The other teams were stacking the box with Peterson. That won't happen with McKinnon which should open up the run game now that Bradford has opened up the passing game.  Looking at 2014 may not tell you much as McKinnon was a rookie learning the position then since he was a QB in college and he really didn't do much until the very end of the season.  Washington still has Zenner in front of him and a very capable Riddick hanging around.  I'll take McKinnon over Washington.
So if they were stacking the box against the Vikings this year, you don't think they were in 2015 when AP averaged 4.5 YPC and had 1485 yards & 11 TDs? I don't see much that has changed offensively that would allow them to key on him this year and unable to last year. I have a hard time buying that he is simply the victim of a defense keying on him. After all, Bradford isn't much of an upgrade, if one at all, over Bridgewater in terms of NFL ability (not FF).

As for Washington having Zenner in front of him, this is the first I'm hearing of that. Is there a source that is saying this to be true?

 
The other teams were stacking the box with Peterson. That won't happen with McKinnon which should open up the run game now that Bradford has opened up the passing game.  Looking at 2014 may not tell you much as McKinnon was a rookie learning the position then since he was a QB in college and he really didn't do much until the very end of the season.  Washington still has Zenner in front of him and a very capable Riddick hanging around.  I'll take McKinnon over Washington.
I agree with the first bolded part. Bradford has shown that he can be effective leading this kind of offense. Granted, it's been one week and teams will get more looks at the tape and so forth as MIN's game plan becomes more apparent with Bradford at the helm. Regardless, I think the running game may offer more production with an arm people will actually have to fear. 

The second bolded part, no, Washington does NOT have Zenner in front of him. I'm not sure where you are getting your news from but everywhere else has stated Washington beat Zenner for the spot and it's Washington who will get first crack after Riddick. 

I'd take Washington for the sole fact that Washington could be the bellcow for the rest of the season, minus passing situations with Riddick, and if Riddick were to get hurt you'd have a true 20+ touch a game player. McKinnon is going to split time for what, a month? Maybe less? Maybe more? Abdullah is out for the season. AP is out for undetermined. 

 
He is on IR. He could potentially be designated for return depending on his health.
I believe they can only designate one person a year for this, so I suppose it's at least 8 weeks, which alright; would you rather have a guy for 4 weeks maybe or guaranteed at least 8 weeks? 

In my experience, an injury to the foot that 1- required a foot specialist 2- is still being kept secret and 3- is resulting in at lesat 2 months of missed time is not an injury that is going to result in them coming back at all for the year. And by the time he is back it's very possible he's not in football shape and has lost his starting job

 
I agree with the first bolded part. Bradford has shown that he can be effective leading this kind of offense. Granted, it's been one week and teams will get more looks at the tape and so forth as MIN's game plan becomes more apparent with Bradford at the helm. Regardless, I think the running game may offer more production with an arm people will actually have to fear. 

The second bolded part, no, Washington does NOT have Zenner in front of him. I'm not sure where you are getting your news from but everywhere else has stated Washington beat Zenner for the spot and it's Washington who will get first crack after Riddick. 

I'd take Washington for the sole fact that Washington could be the bellcow for the rest of the season, minus passing situations with Riddick, and if Riddick were to get hurt you'd have a true 20+ touch a game player. McKinnon is going to split time for what, a month? Maybe less? Maybe more? Abdullah is out for the season. AP is out for undetermined. 
rotowire has Zenner listed ahead

 
I agree with the first bolded part. Bradford has shown that he can be effective leading this kind of offense. Granted, it's been one week and teams will get more looks at the tape and so forth as MIN's game plan becomes more apparent with Bradford at the helm. Regardless, I think the running game may offer more production with an arm people will actually have to fear. 

The second bolded part, no, Washington does NOT have Zenner in front of him. I'm not sure where you are getting your news from but everywhere else has stated Washington beat Zenner for the spot and it's Washington who will get first crack after Riddick. 

I'd take Washington for the sole fact that Washington could be the bellcow for the rest of the season, minus passing situations with Riddick, and if Riddick were to get hurt you'd have a true 20+ touch a game player. McKinnon is going to split time for what, a month? Maybe less? Maybe more? Abdullah is out for the season. AP is out for undetermined. 
Where are you getting a month? All reports are saying recovery time for meniscus surgery is 3-4 months. Outside of a possible return in the last couple weeks of the season/playoffs (ie, beyond fantasy usefulness), my guess is we've seen the last of both Abdullah *and* Peterson for the year.

 
BTW, just realized that the initial alert on my phone re: Peterson did say 3-4 weeks. They later corrected it to 3-4 months. That could be the source of the confusion.

 
Where are you getting a month? All reports are saying recovery time for meniscus surgery is 3-4 months. Outside of a possible return in the last couple weeks of the season/playoffs (ie, beyond fantasy usefulness), my guess is we've seen the last of both Abdullah *and* Peterson for the year.
Meniscectomy takes about 4 weeks. Meniscus repair would take 4 months. The initial report I read said 4 weeks, which I figured he was getting it removed. Obviously wrong. 

I don't know why he's getting the repair, makes no sense to me unless it was a massive tear and would essentially put him as a RBBC guy due to pain if they removed the tear versus repairing it has the best chance of saving his career. Or there's more going on that they are being hush hush over

 
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Meniscectomy takes about 4 weeks. Meniscus repair would take 4 months. The initial report I read said 4 weeks, which I figured he was getting it removed. Obviously wrong. 

I don't know why he's getting the repair, makes no sense to me unless it was a massive tear and would essentially put him as a RBBC guy due to pain if they removed the tear versus repairing it has the best chance of saving his career. Or there's more going on that they are being hush hush over
Will Caroll on twitter said the surgery he was having was complex and the return was difficult and lengthy.  It's something called a bucket handle tear...

 
Will Caroll on twitter said the surgery he was having was complex and the return was difficult and lengthy.  It's something called a bucket handle tear...
Yes I'm very familiar with the terminology, injury, etc. It's what I get paid to do. Many bucket handles are removed. The meniscus has a very poor blood supply so the success of repairs is actually very minimal, hense the long recovery time. He won't be able to bear weight on his knee for at least 4 weeks... 

 
I believe they can only designate one person a year for this, so I suppose it's at least 8 weeks, which alright; would you rather have a guy for 4 weeks maybe or guaranteed at least 8 weeks? 

In my experience, an injury to the foot that 1- required a foot specialist 2- is still being kept secret and 3- is resulting in at lesat 2 months of missed time is not an injury that is going to result in them coming back at all for the year. And by the time he is back it's very possible he's not in football shape and has lost his starting job
I wasn't advocating one way or another. Just clarifying.

 
I agree with the first bolded part. Bradford has shown that he can be effective leading this kind of offense. Granted, it's been one week and teams will get more looks at the tape and so forth as MIN's game plan becomes more apparent with Bradford at the helm. Regardless, I think the running game may offer more production with an arm people will actually have to fear. 

The second bolded part, no, Washington does NOT have Zenner in front of him. I'm not sure where you are getting your news from but everywhere else has stated Washington beat Zenner for the spot and it's Washington who will get first crack after Riddick. 

I'd take Washington for the sole fact that Washington could be the bellcow for the rest of the season, minus passing situations with Riddick, and if Riddick were to get hurt you'd have a true 20+ touch a game player. McKinnon is going to split time for what, a month? Maybe less? Maybe more? Abdullah is out for the season. AP is out for undetermined. 
Everything I have seen says AP is out for the year (slight chance to make it back for real football playoffs). Plus they named McKinnon the starter for this week. Given that I would gamble on McKinnon. 

 

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