Full PPR, 4 pt passing
1 QB Browning @ MIN, Goff @ BAL, Stroud @ Jax
1 Flex Boutte v PIT, T Henderson v PIT, Judkins v GB, Pacheco @ NYG
1 K Bates @ BAL, Loop v DET, Prater v MIA, Shrader @ TEN
1 DST DEN @ LAC, IND @ TEN, TB v NYJ
leaning Browning, Boutte, Prater & TB
TIA
Yeah, the Lions on the road, particularly in Baltimore should give everyone pause. But, I'm not loving your other options so much either. Browning may be one of the better backup QBs in the NFL. He's been amazingly accurate with a passable TD/INT ratio (1.4/1). If we just look at his 7 consecutive starts in 2023 he looks great with 267 pass yards and 1.6/1 TD/INT with 13 yards rushing per game. I don't love it as a road game in Minnesota but, he has some talent and one of the best offensive supporting casts in the league.
Stroud is struggling. Let's face it, he regressed pretty badly from year one to year two and he looks even worse now. Jacksonville isn't a terrifying defense but they're not terrible and certainly on par with Tampa Bay. I honestly think DeMeco Ryans may be on the hot seat at this point. They could "circle the wagons" but, I don't know if I want to rely on that.
The Lions are going to end the season as one of the five highest scoring teams in the league. The Lions are facing a team that will finish as one of the five highest scoring teams in the league. Should be a track meet, right? But, there is a belief that home and road splits are dramatic. I decided to dig into it just a bit and, in 2024 it wasn't as stark as I thought. He averaged 75%, 282 yards, 2.33 TD, 0.67 INT & 1.8 sacks at home and 74%, 261 yards, 2 TD, 0.75 INT, & 1.9 sacks on the road. That surprised me probably because I'm still a bit traumatized from the 2023 game in Baltimore, in which the Lions were shellacked 38-6. Goff threw for 284 (62%), 0 TD, 1 INT and he was sacked 5 times. But, this may be a different Lions team than the 2023 version...
I still view it as a risk but:
Goff>Browning>Stroud
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Your flex call is tough. I'm leaning Judkins just because of how fast he was named the starter. Clearly the Browns are desperate for any spark and, I expect they will try to give him as much work as they can before they are entirely in 2/6 minute mode, so... probably 2 PM on Saturday.
I honestly don't feel I can trust Henderson ATM. I think I underestimated the McDaniels factor and Rhamondre will see plenty of work unless & until he starts fumbling. So Henderson feels more like a big play option at this point.
Boutte got one target in a 33-27 game... one. And Drake Maye only threw the ball 23 times. This is a really tough team to predict. Boutte does see the biggest snap share of all the WRs (77%, Hollins and Diggs are next at 59% & 54%) so he should see enough looks to make him startable most weeks. I just worry there will be plenty of duds along the way.
The Giants have the worst run D in the league by, virtually every metric. A lot of that is masked by 68 yards from Daniels in week one but, they're still not very good against the run. Pacheco sees a 55% snap share compared to 39% for Hunt but, he has only 3 more opportunities and 2 more touches. And his efficiency is worse than Hunt, although they both suck ATM. Starting him is banking on a TD, and I think that isn't a terrible bet this week with KC so very desperate for a win. Could the Chiefs really be a bad team this year? I doubt it but, Kelce and Chris Jones are old and slowing down. This might be the year they have to retool. Still, I can't bet against them in week two against a bad Giants team.
It's really a gut call but:
Boutte>Pacheco>Judkins>Henderson
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Kickers? Seriously, bruh? Loop, I guess. I take the kicker from winning teams who score a lot. Yeah, yeah "But...but...TD conversion rates..." whatever.
Loop>Mr. Rodgers>The Waterboy
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Say it with me "Defenses are random number generators."
Probably the Bucs but, they just played a very tough game, lost Cancey and it's a short week.
Probably the Broncos but, they have started very slow and are playing one of the early season's best teams on the road.
Probably the Colts because they have been surprisingly good and are playing a lesser opponent.
IDK
Colts>Bucs>Broncos
