Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 6 - Starting to warm to some of the games, but not jumping up and down on a screaming "All In" type pick at this point. It'll come, but for now..... the theme of the week is a bit "exotic".... Let's talk.
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (OVER 44) - (1 star)
The Chargers are giving up the most passing yards in the NFL, and now Matt Cassel is starting to feel comfortable in the pocket. Imagine that - enjoying being an NFL QB when you have Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Go figure. Add to this that the Pats have figured out that Laurence Maroney is more of a trivia question answer than an answer to their run game. As for the Chargers, we've seen them score lots of points this season and are certainly capable of 20-30 points any given week. It also helps that the Pats D is closer to retirement than to the Pro Bowl. Points-a-plenty here.
Baltimore Ravens (+4) at Indianapolis Colts - (1 star)
I believe the subtitle to the Ravens playbook is "Winning Ugly". They should have won last week against the Titans (bad penalty call), but losing to a solid Titan team (how often do I get to wrtie that one? Not much) brings no shame on you. Now, as far as teams that don't deserve a win, look no further than the Colts. Sage Rosenfels, the Christmas cards from Indiana will be flowing this year.
I've heard the arguments of why the Colts will roll here - they are at home, Peyton is Peyton, yadda yadda. Guess what? The monstrosity that is the new Oil Slick Stadium (whatever it's called) for the Colts has never hosted a home team victory - not in the regular season (0-2) nor in the preseason (0-2). Short timetable, yes, but this is a team that is used to winning all of their home games and 12 or more games every year.
History plays no part in this one for the Colts. Peyton is not what he once was for whatever reason this year. Could it be the ghost that is Marvin Harrison, since he's not playing like the Marvin of old? Could it be the injury to Peyton? We'll never know that. What we do know is that the O-line is suspect now and that's affecting Addai (who's a sham of an "elite" RB) and Peyton is not that good under pressure. Don't think for a second that Rex Ryan isn't ready to blow that up.
The Ravens will run the ball down their throats. With no Bob Sanders, the Colts are the worst team against the run, averaging almost 200 yards against on the ground (188). Ladies and Gentlemen, meet Le'Ron McClain. And Willis McGahee. Give each 20 carries or more and call it a day. Not only do the Ravens cover, but I'll call for the win (but I'll take the points, thanks).
I know it sounds like I should love this game, but I can't go heavy on a Ravens game / offense just yet. I will do a little something with this game a little later......
Arizona Cardinals (+5) vs. Dallas Cowboys - (1 star)
Normally when you take away a Pro Bowl WR, an offense struggles. Tell that to Kurt Warner sometime. Better yet, don't - he's doing just fine. Dallas' defense is overrated and their secondary is porous even more with no Terence Newman. Add in the 1-2 punch of Edge and Tim Hightower and you can see where the Cards can get some points. The question is, will Arizona do enough on defense to keep this one close? Look for them to come after Romo to try and force some turnovers, but ultimately this will come down to whomever scores the most in a shootout. Defenses won't decide this - only the offense will have a say. If one of those units falters, that is your ballgame. I think Arizona is experienced in offensive slugfests and will keep this one very close - and may even pull off the victory.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys (OVER 51) - (1 star)
See above - 27-24 feels like the minimum score in this one.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
None.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
None. I said I don't love the games yet, but hey - we want to play, don't we?
Now I said I'd go a little exotic for you, so here's one more:
SIX POINT TEASER
Arizona Cardinals (+11) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Baltimore Ravens (+10) at Indianapolis Colts - (1 star)
I really think that both teams can win these games so I feel pretty good about teasing them together for double-digits. Then again, putting so many eggs in the basket of just 1-2 games can really ruin a week. So that leads me down the "1-star" path once again. Risk management in effect.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 6 - Starting to warm to some of the games, but not jumping up and down on a screaming "All In" type pick at this point. It'll come, but for now..... the theme of the week is a bit "exotic".... Let's talk.
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (OVER 44) - (1 star)
The Chargers are giving up the most passing yards in the NFL, and now Matt Cassel is starting to feel comfortable in the pocket. Imagine that - enjoying being an NFL QB when you have Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Go figure. Add to this that the Pats have figured out that Laurence Maroney is more of a trivia question answer than an answer to their run game. As for the Chargers, we've seen them score lots of points this season and are certainly capable of 20-30 points any given week. It also helps that the Pats D is closer to retirement than to the Pro Bowl. Points-a-plenty here.
Baltimore Ravens (+4) at Indianapolis Colts - (1 star)
I believe the subtitle to the Ravens playbook is "Winning Ugly". They should have won last week against the Titans (bad penalty call), but losing to a solid Titan team (how often do I get to wrtie that one? Not much) brings no shame on you. Now, as far as teams that don't deserve a win, look no further than the Colts. Sage Rosenfels, the Christmas cards from Indiana will be flowing this year.
I've heard the arguments of why the Colts will roll here - they are at home, Peyton is Peyton, yadda yadda. Guess what? The monstrosity that is the new Oil Slick Stadium (whatever it's called) for the Colts has never hosted a home team victory - not in the regular season (0-2) nor in the preseason (0-2). Short timetable, yes, but this is a team that is used to winning all of their home games and 12 or more games every year.
History plays no part in this one for the Colts. Peyton is not what he once was for whatever reason this year. Could it be the ghost that is Marvin Harrison, since he's not playing like the Marvin of old? Could it be the injury to Peyton? We'll never know that. What we do know is that the O-line is suspect now and that's affecting Addai (who's a sham of an "elite" RB) and Peyton is not that good under pressure. Don't think for a second that Rex Ryan isn't ready to blow that up.
The Ravens will run the ball down their throats. With no Bob Sanders, the Colts are the worst team against the run, averaging almost 200 yards against on the ground (188). Ladies and Gentlemen, meet Le'Ron McClain. And Willis McGahee. Give each 20 carries or more and call it a day. Not only do the Ravens cover, but I'll call for the win (but I'll take the points, thanks).
I know it sounds like I should love this game, but I can't go heavy on a Ravens game / offense just yet. I will do a little something with this game a little later......
Arizona Cardinals (+5) vs. Dallas Cowboys - (1 star)
Normally when you take away a Pro Bowl WR, an offense struggles. Tell that to Kurt Warner sometime. Better yet, don't - he's doing just fine. Dallas' defense is overrated and their secondary is porous even more with no Terence Newman. Add in the 1-2 punch of Edge and Tim Hightower and you can see where the Cards can get some points. The question is, will Arizona do enough on defense to keep this one close? Look for them to come after Romo to try and force some turnovers, but ultimately this will come down to whomever scores the most in a shootout. Defenses won't decide this - only the offense will have a say. If one of those units falters, that is your ballgame. I think Arizona is experienced in offensive slugfests and will keep this one very close - and may even pull off the victory.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys (OVER 51) - (1 star)
See above - 27-24 feels like the minimum score in this one.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
None.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
None. I said I don't love the games yet, but hey - we want to play, don't we?
Now I said I'd go a little exotic for you, so here's one more:
SIX POINT TEASER
Arizona Cardinals (+11) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Baltimore Ravens (+10) at Indianapolis Colts - (1 star)
I really think that both teams can win these games so I feel pretty good about teasing them together for double-digits. Then again, putting so many eggs in the basket of just 1-2 games can really ruin a week. So that leads me down the "1-star" path once again. Risk management in effect.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
I agree - but you have to respect the potential of the Colts' offense. If they can somehow get 20-21 points, the Ravens may struggle to reach that number. If BAL plays their game though, I can see this being a big game for ToP to the Ravens and lots of run plays.
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