Daaaaa Bears?? Anyone think Detroit can upset them? I feel kinda shaky putting a chance at 4 grand on the shoulders of Kyle Orton. The 7 people left in my poll all have Chicago available and will all probably use them...I might go a different direction and hope for Chi Town to go down, but who?? Already used Tampa, Jacksonville, NY Giants, Minny...am I really considering using Indy at home against New England in an absolutely must win. Someone talk me out of it...
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Week 9 Suicide Pick Strategy (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JSH21
- Start date
gkza
Footballguy
I'd love to save the Bears for later this season. If you have balls (because this is a tough week) save the Bears till they play the saints in december. most people use them this week and that is a nice pick to have down the stretch.
I wish I had the Giants, because I think they tear Dallas apart this week. This is the game that undoes the '08 cowboys.
I wish I had the Giants, because I think they tear Dallas apart this week. This is the game that undoes the '08 cowboys.
Leo2228
Footballguy
ATL over OAK
Shermanator
Footballguy
I wouldnt bet HOU to lose to any team right now. You would seriously take MN in a suicide pool this late in the year?
Islander
Footballguy
The Bears against the Saints? This is far from a done deal and they probably won't be more than 6 pt favorites, and I am being generous. The Lions matchup is far easier. I would like to save the Bears if I saw a decent option down the road, but I am not seeing any. I do have the Giants left, but I still think the Bears are much safer so I think I cannot pick any differently. MIN over HOU is living on the edge, and I like ATL but I would never take them on the road in a survivor pool.I think the only comfortable picks this week are CHI followed by NYG. I know most will take CHI, but that's not enough of a reason to deter me from taking them. I will let some random others take the risk of doing the odd thing. I can separate from the crowd on another week. Plenty of games left.
gkza
Footballguy
I completely agree with you that Detroit is an easier matchup. At home coming off a bye to the worst team in the league is a no brainer. However I love Chicago in a cold, windy game against a saints team that is just not the same outside a dome. I will probably take the Bears 2x as I am still alive in 2 pools. This week is way to hard as I have already used the Giants. I keep hearing people talk about the Eagles this week. I just don't get it. Seahawks just whupped SF (not that big of an accomplisment) and hung pretty good on the long trip to Tampa. If you still have the Eagles, why not save them for the late home matchup vs. the Borwnies which the likelihood of Brady Quinn playing is very high...my strategy ar least for Philly
Twilight
Footballguy
How'd the "Save the Cowboys" strategy in week 5 work out for people? One injury, and the Bears may be just as useless in two weeks.
gkza
Footballguy
So you're saying independant thinking is not of use in Suicide pools? When there is $20k plus on the line you need to have a vision, particularly when playing against saavy opponent.Not to discount what you said. A valid point. My thinking was more a function of the Saints not performing on the road and outdoors.
I'm one of the ones who saved Dallas and still think it could be huge for me if I make it to week 12 or 13 to use them against SF or Seattle at home.
But seriously...anyone want to talk me out of Indy this week because as of now that's who I'm really considering using. An absolutely must win, at home, on prime time, against their biggest rival. Bob Sanders should be back, NE really has no huge RB threat, and Cassell at QB. I really see Indy winning this game by 14+.
But seriously...anyone want to talk me out of Indy this week because as of now that's who I'm really considering using. An absolutely must win, at home, on prime time, against their biggest rival. Bob Sanders should be back, NE really has no huge RB threat, and Cassell at QB. I really see Indy winning this game by 14+.
Anonymous Internet User
Footballguy
as a rule of thumb, i never pick a division game unless there are absolutely no options. avoiding chicago versus detroit for this reason.
this week i went with denver (3-1 at home) over miami (1-2 on the road).
this week i went with denver (3-1 at home) over miami (1-2 on the road).
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ceisenhower66
Footballguy
I have TB, Chicago, and Atlanta that I am looking at this week. I think everyone left in my pool is going to take Chicago. I might have to do the same, because I really don't love Chicago anywhere else (saving Dallas didn't really pan out). I'm very tempted to go with TB, even though they are on the road. I think they are going to bounce back nicely and stomp KC. Atlanta should win with Turner having a monster game, but that seems too risky for me at this point.
I still have NE, Ten, Ind, NYG, Was, Dal, Chi, GB, and TB at my disposal...hoping I can turn that into some cash...
I don't know that I will ever have the cajones to touch NO and Den. Those two teams, along with Was and Jax are on my s-list for years past, LOL.
I still have NE, Ten, Ind, NYG, Was, Dal, Chi, GB, and TB at my disposal...hoping I can turn that into some cash...
I don't know that I will ever have the cajones to touch NO and Den. Those two teams, along with Was and Jax are on my s-list for years past, LOL.
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Twilight
Footballguy
It isn't discouraging independent thinking. Just don't do it to "save" a team. These pools are real vulnerable to overthinking. Let those other savvy opponents pick the bigger longshots because they are saving a team.
A
awesomeness
Guest
Besides Chicago i think Tampa will easily dispose of KC. Tampa will have no trouble running the ball all over KC, wasting the clock the whole way forcing Thigpen to pass early and often. I can see Tampa winning 34-7 or something big.
mannybeingmanny
Footballguy
I think everyone is overlooking Buffalo. The Jets looked horrible last week against the Chiefs and although the Bills lost in Miami, the Dolphins aren't as bad as people think and it is a big rivalry game. I think the Bill's will roll over the Jets in this game.
They host Houston two weeks later, which is a better matchup. So are the late-season home games against Detroit and Cincinnati.In general you'll probably want to avoid a 3-4 team playing against a 5-2 team unless you have no other options....
Shermanator
Footballguy
I totally agree with this philosophyWolfpacker
Footballguy
I have the same thought about Chicago. Everyone in my pool has Chicago available and they are by far the biggest favorite in the NFL this week. I also don't see how there can possibly be an easier future match-up for the Bears so I think a majority will select them. I could play it safe and take them also. But, just suppose Detroit beats Chicago. If you are one of the few people who don't take the Bears, you are gold, Jerry, gold. Regarding some of the teams previously discussed...I never select away teams (Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Philly, Jax); I don't trust Minnesota and Denver after their previous performances prior to the bye (and Miami and Houston aren't awful); abrecher has a good point about avoiding Indy (3-4) against New England (5-2). And, like Anonymous Internet User, I don't like division games (Buf-NYJ, Chi-Det,) and I would never bet a Cowboys-Giants game anyway.
That leaves me looking at Tennessee (-5 1/2) over Green Bay. Tennessee has easier options in weeks 12 and 14, but there are other teams I can use those weeks. Tennessee is a good running team and Green Bay is relatively weak against the run. Other than Chicago, is Tennessee the best option available? Is Tennesse due for a let-down after beating a big rival on Monday night? Tennessee short week vs. Green Bay bye week make a big difference? Is there something I'm missing?
baldgriff
Footballguy
I have Jacksonville left and am looking at them over Cincy. While I dont usually like taking teams that are on the road, this may be the game I take. The Bungles have been absolutely awful on both sides of the ball and dont appear to have any heart. I could be wrong on this one, but of all of the games that look like traps (Chi vs Det), this may be the safest of those games.
I honestly dont like the games this week. There just isnt a favorite play here.
I honestly dont like the games this week. There just isnt a favorite play here.
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Agree, I've been dreading this week for the past 2-3 (yes, I look ahead, but only to break ties as I do not believe in "saving" a team).As a general rule, I try to avoid:
- road teams
- divisional games
- teams playing desperate opponents
- teams coming off a short week
- teams coming off a "big" win
Coversely, I prefer to pick:
- good teams
- who are well-disciplined
- are coming off a bye
- playing a weak opponent
- at home
- in a must win situation
The problem this week is that there aren't any teams who meet even MOST of the above criteria. FWIW, I really dislike Tenn as I think they are due for a let-down after beating the long-standing divisional powerhouse at home on Monday night.
As much as I prefer to avoid divisional match-ups, I think I'll be going with Chicago and NYG.
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
Hmmmm...seems like the Vikings (at home to Houston) fit right in w/ your thinking here...
I may have just talked myself into taking the Vikings.As a general rule, I try to avoid:
- road teams CHECK (HOU is 0-3 on the road)
- divisional games CHECK
- teams playing desperate opponents CHECK (MIN needs a win badly)
- teams coming off a short week
- teams coming off a "big" win
Coversely, I prefer to pick:
- good teams
- who are well-disciplined CHECK
- are coming off a bye CHECK
- playing a weak opponent CHECK (HOU 3 wins are against team that are 3-19 combined)
- at home CHECK
- in a must win situation CHECK
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acjohnson83
Footballguy
I can't see picking against Houston right now. Last week I went with Philly over the Falcons and was called crazy in my office for picking against a 4-2 team. It showed me records don't mean anything (or much anyway).Pool participants that are left are fairly brainless and will most likely herd toward Chicago. I hate picking against winless teams but it doesn't get much worse than the Bengals right now. Talk about a lifeless team.Hmmmm...seems like the Vikings (at home to Houston) fit right in w/ your thinking here...I may have just talked myself into taking the Vikings.As a general rule, I try to avoid:
- road teams CHECK (HOU is 0-3 on the road)
- divisional games CHECK
- teams playing desperate opponents CHECK (MIN needs a win badly)
- teams coming off a short week
- teams coming off a "big" win
Coversely, I prefer to pick:
- good teams
- who are well-disciplined CHECK
- are coming off a bye CHECK
- playing a weak opponent CHECK (HOU 3 wins are against team that are 3-19 combined)
- at home CHECK
- in a must win situation CHECK
However, the Colts keep drawing my interest. Backs against the wall, Sunday night, and (kind of obscure) Peyton Manning has a career 101.3 QB rating in night games compared with 93.4 during the day. It's worth taking a closer look and getting beyond the records.
puckalicious
Footballguy
To me it's between JAX at CIN and CHI vs DET. I know CIN and DET most likely won't go winless all season, but JAX is the clear favorite on the road at CIN, and CHI is at home against possibly the worst 0-7 team in history.
I agree this is a tough week to make a pick, but no way do I touch a game like IND vs NE. Division rivalry games are suspect so I would stay away from CHI, leaving JAX for me.
Already used TB, PHI, BUF, MIN. Saving TEN for later, and because GB has a good shot of upsetting them.
I agree this is a tough week to make a pick, but no way do I touch a game like IND vs NE. Division rivalry games are suspect so I would stay away from CHI, leaving JAX for me.
Already used TB, PHI, BUF, MIN. Saving TEN for later, and because GB has a good shot of upsetting them.
Bermuda_Chub
Footballguy
In complete agreement. As upsets can always happen, and Detroit beat Chicago at Soldier Field last season, I'm leaning towards Jax. Both of my pools are down to a handful, and I expect most everyone to take Chicago. This seems as good of reason as any to go a different route. IF Detroit can pull off a minor miracle, and IF Jacksonville takes care of business in a must win game -- they typically are very solid on the road, and have just endured about the toughest schedule the AFC has to offer -- Sunday could be a $5K payday.
Personally I'm going Philly over Seattle but Chicago is favored by 13 and at home....... I would say that now is not the time for you to take what you think is the 2nd best choice for you and hope the best choice looses. Ask yourself:When else are you going to pick the Bears with confidence this year?Do they play the Lions again at home this year? But....do they have a letdown after the bye or are they rejuvenated after the Bye?Actually I've talked myself out of Philly now and must go edit my selection in the Shark league pool. Go Bears!!!!
Man...I went halfsies with my friend on the suicide poll and we almost had a brawl earlier today discussing who we were gonna take. He loves Chicago vs Detroit and I love Indy vs New England...hopefully we work something out, if not one of us is coming out of this week with a broken nose.
Cincy is 1-9 s/u in its last 10 vs Jax, Jax lost to Cleveland last week, Del Rio will not lose this game..my pick most likely this week.
For those Bears lovers, DET is 3-7 s/u in it's last 10 in Chicago..division game however, and most will be on this wagon has me staying away this week. Beat Chicago last year in Chicago 16-7
Seattle has lost last two at home to Philly, also, road team has won last 6 in series. Like Philly this week as well.
My top three for the week.
For those Bears lovers, DET is 3-7 s/u in it's last 10 in Chicago..division game however, and most will be on this wagon has me staying away this week. Beat Chicago last year in Chicago 16-7
Seattle has lost last two at home to Philly, also, road team has won last 6 in series. Like Philly this week as well.
My top three for the week.
JFT Ben
Footballguy
Granted, I'm a Packer homer, but if I were you, I'd stay far, far away from this game. Green Bay coming off a bye, their defense (finally!) getting healthy, Rodgers doing better with the shoulder, offensive fire-power with a game planner in McCarthy who could exploit match-ups, including bringing back the "Big 5" WR package now that his WRs are all healthy, etc. Think about it, if GB can get out to a lead (which granted, most have not been able to do against TEN, but bear with me for a minute), esp. something like 2 TDs, can TEN and Collins fight their way back in? I think GB will win and have accurately predicted the last three win/losses including the ATL loss at home. I think these all factor into a close game and one I wouldn't touch in a survivor pool with a 10 foot pole. I'm taking TB in the one I'm in FWIW. I also tend to stay away from divisional games like others in the pool unless there are no other reasonable choices, otherwise Chicago is the pick.
Oh the Humanity
Footballguy
I took Chicago, even knowing that everyone else will. The Giants would be a good alt. play if I had them left. Buffalo is playable, I think the Jets game vs KC is actually pretty close to indicitive of how good their team is, but they host SF in week 13 and the Bears have no good play after this week.
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Wolfpacker
Footballguy
Thanks for the input, JFT. I've almost talked myself out of this anyway. I'm now leaning heavily towards just joining the masses, picking Chicago, and moving on to next week (hopefully). I keep thinking about what Islander wrote: "I know most will take CHI, but that's not enough of a reason to deter me from taking them. I will let some random others take the risk of doing the odd thing. I can separate from the crowd on another week. Plenty of games left." I made a list of pros and cons of picking a team other than Chicago. The only pro was that IF everyone picked Chicago and IF Chicago lost, I would be one of the few still standing. There's a longer list of cons, the most important of which is that this is the only week I can see that Chicago is the safest pick for the remainder of the season. Almost everyone else in my pool will have picked Chicago and I will have selected someone (Tennessee, for example) that would be a safer play down the road for everyone except me.
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gkza
Footballguy
Is anyone at all considering TB over KC?
KC is down to 3rd string RB and QB.
TB has a great secondary (maybe the best in the league), and have not let up a rushing TD all year. With the exception of this being a road game, what is not to like? If TB is a playoff team they MUST win this game quite frankly.
KC is down to 3rd string RB and QB.
TB has a great secondary (maybe the best in the league), and have not let up a rushing TD all year. With the exception of this being a road game, what is not to like? If TB is a playoff team they MUST win this game quite frankly.
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
Rebirtha
Footballguy
Teams that are favored by 6.5-12 points the week before their bye are 33-6 ATS since 2001. Tampa would qualify this week.
Also, with the Bucs, Gruden is 6-0 ATS and 6-0 SU the week before their bye.
I was leaning towards Jax but these #'s make me think TB is the pick this week. That and the fact that they are playing KC of course.
Also, with the Bucs, Gruden is 6-0 ATS and 6-0 SU the week before their bye.
I was leaning towards Jax but these #'s make me think TB is the pick this week. That and the fact that they are playing KC of course.
I'd be all over Tampa if I didn't use them 2 weeks ago against Seattle.
Something just doesn't seem right about this Chicago - Detroit game to me at all. Detroit beat them at Chicago last year, it's a division game, Detroit is bound to win atleast one game, Orton is bound to have a stinker, and most of all I've seen it happy too many times where the clear cut highest line on the board goes down.
Something just doesn't seem right about this Chicago - Detroit game to me at all. Detroit beat them at Chicago last year, it's a division game, Detroit is bound to win atleast one game, Orton is bound to have a stinker, and most of all I've seen it happy too many times where the clear cut highest line on the board goes down.
Rebirtha
Footballguy
I have NO idea how TB won that game but I'll take it. Movin' on...
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
puckalicious
Footballguy
I still believe JAX lost to CIN. 
Should have listened to everyone and picked CHI. But you have to admit that was not a gimmie. Detroit worked hard at losing that game!
Should have listened to everyone and picked CHI. But you have to admit that was not a gimmie. Detroit worked hard at losing that game!
