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We're Too Down On Russell Wilson and Too High On Geno Smith (1 Viewer)

FairWarning

Footballguy
The hot take freak out reactions on this board this season have been insane. During the Thursday night season opener the rams were "DONE FOREVER WORST TEAM IN THE NFL" by the second half.
There's just no long term objectivity here.
I’ll give a hot take - what happened last year doesn’t guarantee anything this year. Too many player and coaching changes affect everything . QB may be the most consistent, but people are betting on a 34-YO. If you disagree, just look at the 1st round of redrafts every year and look at the failure rate.
We're a quarter through the season so it's no longer a hot take. I'm talking half way through the first game.
First couple of games, totally agree. I deal with a lot of day trader memorabilia people. It drives me nuts.
 

mr roboto

Footballguy
You can get Russell Wilson for two years at his current cap hit or Geno Smith for two years and his current cap hit… Who are you gonna take for your team?
 

panhead55

Footballguy
Wilson cut his teeth and his reputation by using his legs. If he stays in the pocket, he struggles to see over the line. If you look at his spray chart he threw either deep or short to the sidelines, but seldom over the middle. With his quick feet Russell escaped the pass rush with his patented spin move, giving WRs time to get deep. Wilson's deep ball was a thing of beauty. With his legs he often took off on QB options. Defenses had to take that into account as well. I've watched Wilson's leg become increasingly less effective the last two years. His skill set does not allow him to be effective standing in the pocket. He needs to move around to buy time, but his legs are letting him down.

No question a latissimus dorsi tear can effect his throwing velocity and accuracy, but it has no impact on his decision making, which has been poor last year in Seattle and this year in Denver. I agree with a poster above that Wilson is probably a top 15 QB. I think that is likely where he'll finish in fantasy, but many considered him elite. If you accept the fact that his legs are critical to his success, then you must accept the fact that he is a descending talent, both in real life and in fantasy.
 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
I’m not sure what is going on with Russ, but he looks like a QB in the last year of his career. Doesn’t run anymore and is making awful decisions.

Fun to see Geno blossoming into an actually good NFL QB. He certainly paid his dues in the league.

I wonder how many QBs get tossed on the scrap heap that were viable NFL starters and just never hooked up with the right team/coaching.?
 

Desert_Power

Footballguy
I’m not sure what is going on with Russ, but he looks like a QB in the last year of his career. Doesn’t run anymore and is making awful decisions.

Fun to see Geno blossoming into an actually good NFL QB. He certainly paid his dues in the league.

I wonder how many QBs get tossed on the scrap heap that were viable NFL starters and just never hooked up with the right team/coaching.?
This is the thesis Matt Rhule seems to have, minus the good coaching.
 

IHEARTFF

Footballguy
Agree with OP that this could be a slight overreaction on each guy here
I'm willing to be a little more patient with Wilson in part b/c ww qb is garbage, but also b/c he has many solid qb1 games in his career
Denver O looks terrible, and some of that is certainly Wilson missing stuff, but would anyone really be that surprised if they were a top 10 offense ROS?
 

Truebluey

Footballguy
Agree with OP that this could be a slight overreaction on each guy here
I'm willing to be a little more patient with Wilson in part b/c ww qb is garbage, but also b/c he has many solid qb1 games in his career
Denver O looks terrible, and some of that is certainly Wilson missing stuff, but would anyone really be that surprised if they were a top 10 offense ROS?
Yes!
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
I'm not really sold on either.

With respect to Geno, we've already seen Wentz and Goff turn back into pumpkins after hot starts. Would anyone be shocked if that happened to Geno, too?

As far as Russ, I'm really coming around to the view that he's cooked. Maybe it's the injury, maybe it's Hackett, but for fantasy purposes, does it really matter? Either way, you're unlikely to get the old Russ by the end of the season.

I'm putting in a claim tonight to drop Russ for Geno, because even if I don't totally buy it, Geno at least does have upside if he continues this level of play
 

The General

Footballguy
This whole thread didn't age well, really. Geno has been pretty darn good and Russell hasn't found it yet. Mea culpa.
I don’t see why Geno can’t continue to do what he is doing. Play within the system, pick spots, throw ball away. He had shown glimpses in the past with Seattle. But this is for sure a pretty amazing story.

Russell turning to hot garbage so fast is much more a shock. Him being a bit of an odd dude not so much :lol:
 

rockaction

Footballguy
I don’t see why Geno can’t continue to do what he is doing

Even his lousiest game of the year against Tampa Bay was almost a comeback because of his solid play down the stretch. I don't see why, given the evidence we have, why he shouldn't continue.

But weird stuff happens every year and the league might adjust. That said, he has a huge percentage of big time throws -- throws that are in tight windows and tough to make. Good for him.
 

Hooper31

Footballguy
As for Richard Sherman, he is just mad that Wilson didn't bail him out in the SB. Let's face it, Sherman and his D blew that game. They blew a double digit 4th quarter lead in the Super Bowl. Any notions of them being one of the all-time great defenses went out the window in that hour.

Seriously? They led the league in fewest points given up in 5 consecutive seasons. Not even the 70s Steelers did that. What happens in one quarter of one game in one season doesn't define "all-time great defense".

Correction: It was only four straight seasons starting in 2012. In 2016 they finished 3rd in points allowed.
 
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barackdhouse

Footballguy
Pro Bowler. Crow eaten here.
Wilson was easily my worst pick of the year in several leagues. Went heavy with him and AlbertO. Somehow didn't really get much Sutton or Javonte and was fading Jeudy regardless so not *too* much impact but dang was I wrong about Wilson.

I was high on Geno but never would have said Pro Bowl. One thing about him "emerging" late - there had been a narrative that developed in the last several years that a QB prime may be their early 30s. I think that narrative has quieted considerably over the last couple of years with so many young QBs being successful right out of the gate. But the trend may still hold water, in that sometimes guys can emerge later. I would almost put Tannehill into that category, too. Alex Smith. Obviously, system/team changes can mean everything. Many of the older greats like Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers really excelled in their early mid 30s. So it shouldn't be *too* shocking when someone like Geno breaks out, but still amazing nonetheless.

I still maintain and have said many times that I don't think Wilson has been able to throw the ball very accurately ever since his finger injury last year. Also, and I know this has been amplified and exaggerated for clicks, etc., but he really does come across as being pretty out of his mind.
 

massraider

Footballguy
It's very interesting to me that the Geno Smith redemption thread is hanging out by the Let's get some hammers and Beat Zach Wilson in front of his family thread.
 

IHEARTFF

Footballguy
I’ve given up on him this season, but I still don’t buy that Russ is done for. Maybe more injured than let on. Short leash for next season though in case I am blind.
 

rockaction

Footballguy
I’ve given up on him this season, but I still don’t buy that Russ is done for

I don't, either. I also think Geno might turn back into a pumpkin next year, but he deserves his due for this one so far. Really good year considering what everyone thought SEA would look like.
 

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