What are the most important areas in grading players? (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

I strayed away from what I am comfortable with the past couple years and I think a lot of it had to do with the revolution of so many 2 back systems. I used to implore a formula that had 5 categories in it...# of touches, offesive philosophy, talent surrounding the player, ability, and intangibles. Some of that is flawed and some of that is a little less impacted by the changes in the game.

I believe # of touches is still pretty crucial. Chris Johnson had 400 touches last year and was the #1 RB in FF, not surprising. Guys have missed the #1 spot while gettingthe most touches but it does factor into things so I would keep that as a category. For WRs this would mean targets. Qbs would mean attempts I guess.

What are the main things you are looking for when evaluating production or expectations for players in the upcoming year. Mostly dealing redraft here, not dynasty as much althhough is some overlap. Appreciate the help folks.

 

[Donsmith753]

Without wanting to seem obvious, talent.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Without wanting to seem obvious, talent.

How do you gauge that though? A lot of NFL players are highly talented but that doesn't always translate to the field.

 

[Donsmith753]

Without wanting to seem obvious, talent.

How do you gauge that though? A lot of NFL players are highly talented but that doesn't always translate to the field.

It's very difficult, that's why people are paid a lot of money to do so. I think what I was trying to get at is that touches don't dictate talent/fantasy production, talent dictates touches. If Matt Leinart gets the same amount of attempts as Kurt Warner did last year he wouldn't be so productive. Warner gets those touches because he's talented and not the other way around.I think when you get to the elite guys then touches do become important. Assuming Johnson, ADP and Rice are all equally "talented". If one touches it 4-5 times more per game they'll most likely be more successful. I'd say it's a good way of splitting players within tiers but that I wouldn't use it purely to grade players.

 

[footballman_696969]

Without wanting to seem obvious, talent.

I've decided that in years past I've looked too much into the numbers and haven't focused enough on talent. I'm throwing that out the window this year. I'm now gunning for players who pass the eyeball test. I don't want to miss out on those guys that make me go "wow" when I watch them play. Some examples would include Jamaal Charles, Beannie Wells and Felix Jones.

 

[Donsmith753]

Without wanting to seem obvious, talent.

I've decided that in years past I've looked too much into the numbers and haven't focused enough on talent. I'm throwing that out the window this year. I'm now gunning for players who pass the eyeball test. I don't want to miss out on those guys that make me go "wow" when I watch them play. Some examples would include Jamaal Charles, Beannie Wells and Felix Jones.

Be careful not to get caught up with home-run hitters and miss out on some good grinders. I know what you mean though.

 

[DawnBTVS]

1: Talent on the field. This is kind of obvious but do they translate the skills that they show off the field (the vertical jump, the 40 yard dash, the 3 cone drill) when playing in the games at the college level. If so, how does that project to not only the NFL but to the team that they are going to? RB Jonathan Dwyer's an interesting example. I liked his ability to break tackles and run inside and if he gets goal line touches in Pittsburgh, he could have success in that role.

2: Have they consistently improved both "behind the scenes" and on the field? This is kind of murky but I look for guys that the current staff may be high on and push said player up the depth chart. An example would be QB Brian Hoyer in New England. He comes in as an undrafted free agent and not only sends other touted quarterbacks on the team out but managed to secure the #2 QB spot behind Tom Brady. That's a huge vote of confidence and the fact that he's still the back up this year bodes well for his development and the confidence in him. An old school example of this would be Tom Brady moving up to #2 behind Drew Bledsoe for the 2001 Season despite being a 6th Round pick in 2000.

3: As you said, MOP, I like looking at offensive philosophy. What's the background of an OC? With a guy like Mike Martz coming into Chicago, I'll bump up Jay Cutler slightly due to his pass first mentality. I like Matt Cassel as a sleeper because Kansas City has Charlie Weis at OC. Despite his tenure at ND, he still had a big hand in developing both Brady Quinn and Jimmy Clausen into touted Draft prospects.

 

[footballman_696969]

Without wanting to seem obvious, talent.

I've decided that in years past I've looked too much into the numbers and haven't focused enough on talent. I'm throwing that out the window this year. I'm now gunning for players who pass the eyeball test. I don't want to miss out on those guys that make me go "wow" when I watch them play. Some examples would include Jamaal Charles, Beannie Wells and Felix Jones.

Be careful not to get caught up with home-run hitters and miss out on some good grinders. I know what you mean though.

No worries there. I also love the Hines Ward and Derrick Masons of fantasy football. The old guys who get it done and outperform their draft position year after year.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I gotta second the thought on passing the eye ball test......not a big stat guy, I take a look, but for me nothing is more important than watching a guy play......watching a meaningless STL vs CAR preseason game, or a late night college football game.....we have all watched a ton of football, and for the most part the games look the same....then all of a sudden BAM, something happens and you are like whoa!....I think we all watch games and enjoy them simply cause it is a great game, but those in here also watch them with fantasy googles on.....

I would use Jermichael Finley as an example of this from last year.....

It doesn't work every time, cause I felt the same way about Naanee....even though I haven't given up on that one yet.....sometimes the eyeball test takes a while to pan out......

I'll throw out Shawn Nelson as another guy that has passed the eye ball test, but hasn't quite panned out....yet

 

[Ray_T]

I strayed away from what I am comfortable with the past couple years and I think a lot of it had to do with the revolution of so many 2 back systems. I used to implore a formula that had 5 categories in it...# of touches, offesive philosophy, talent surrounding the player, ability, and intangibles. Some of that is flawed and some of that is a little less impacted by the changes in the game. I believe # of touches is still pretty crucial. Chris Johnson had 400 touches last year and was the #1 RB in FF, not surprising. Guys have missed the #1 spot while gettingthe most touches but it does factor into things so I would keep that as a category. For WRs this would mean targets. Qbs would mean attempts I guess. What are the main things you are looking for when evaluating production or expectations for players in the upcoming year. Mostly dealing redraft here, not dynasty as much althhough is some overlap. Appreciate the help folks.

I think you have a lot of it there. A lot of what I look at would classify as intangibles.while I do look at # of touches, I also look at the team and try to figure out if this is likely to continue. For example, Chris Johnson had 400 Touches last year, and it would be tough to plan for him to have another 400 this year. I'd scale back the expectations for him to about 350-360 touches.I also look at what attributes made the player successful when a player does well and analyze whether those attributes still exist. Case in Point: LJ. had what may have been the best line in the NFL when he started, but injuries & retirements of key players on the line have made the line play weak and his production dropped radically when this happened. This should not have been a surprise. Ditto for LT as the Line in San Diego was converted from a run block system to a pass block system. LT's numbers dropped. Of course, hes aged and is not the player he was, but there were plays where I saw the line didnt get the job done, but LT showed the talent was still there and made a play out of it. I am expecting LT to be more productive in New York, than he was in San Diego last year (due to the road grader O-line in New York) but I do not think he will be a top 5 back ever again.