What do you see for Malcom Floyd? (1 Viewer)

[fridayfrenzy]

All signs are pointing to a V-Jax hold out for a significant amount of time.

If V-Jax and the Chargers do not come to an agreement what type of production should we expect out of Malcom Floyd with the increased playing time, red zone opportunities, increased targets, etc?

Floyd may not be the #1 receiver on the Chargers (most likely would be Gates), but he should take over the WR1 spot.

What type of production would you see out of Malcom Floyd?

 

[finito]

65 950 5 TDs (ish)

 

[spider321]

V-Jax won't hold out.

 

[werdnoynek]

V-Jax won't hold out.

 

[craxie]

V-Jax won't hold out.

If he wasn't going to play for $3 mill, he certainly isn't going to play for $600k

 

[werdnoynek]

V-Jax won't hold out.

If he wasn't going to play for $3 mill, he certainly isn't going to play for $600k

i find it odd he's so certain he wont hold out yet he's already begun to lol...

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I need to revise my projections. I don't think there's a realistic chance at this point that V.Jax will report before week ten. Then he'll probably have a suspension to serve after that.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

V-Jax won't hold out.

If he wasn't going to play for $3 mill, he certainly isn't going to play for $600k

i find it odd he's so certain he wont hold out yet he's already begun to lol...

holding out in camp <> holding out during the seasonthat said I wouldn't count on VJAX this season

 

[sholditch]

Of all the players who have threatened holdouts over the past few seasons, how many have?

Always bet against the holdout. Vjax comes in for the last week of camp, mends fences, plays week 1, deal gets done during the season.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Of all the players who have threatened holdouts over the past few seasons, how many have?Always bet against the holdout. Vjax comes in for the last week of camp, mends fences, plays week 1, deal gets done during the season.

I think there's nearly zero chance that he'll report before week ten if he's set to make ~$37K/game.For him to report before week ten, he'll need a new deal. But according to what the Chargers have said, he won't get a new deal before Gates does. And it's not a great time to sign any players to a new deal given the uncertainty of the 2011 season.There's a chance that the Chargers could re-institute their $3.2m offer, and there's a chance he'd play for that. But at this point I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Of all the players who have threatened holdouts over the past few seasons, how many have?

Always bet against the holdout. Vjax comes in for the last week of camp, mends fences, plays week 1, deal gets done during the season.

I think there's nearly zero chance that he'll report before week ten if he's set to make ~$37K/game.For him to report before week ten, he'll need a new deal. But according to what the Chargers have said, he won't get a new deal before Gates does. And it's not a great time to sign any players to a new deal given the uncertainty of the 2011 season.

There's a chance that the Chargers could re-institute their $3.2m offer, and there's a chance he'd play for that. But at this point I wouldn't bet on it.

Lets keep this on track guys...The assumption is that V-Jax will hold out for a significant amount of time and the implications for Malcom Floyd.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

If VJax is gone you're presumably splitting up his 68 catches, plus the 10 that Chambers and Osgood had. This holds Gates at 79 (a big year already) and doesn't redistribute additional WR/TE plays to the RBs (who already had about 100 catches in 2009):

2009 Floyd 45

2009 Naanee 24

2009 Davis 6

2010 Floyd 70-1000-7 (13-14 ppg)

2010 Naanee 57-741-5 (~10 ppg)

2010 Davis 26-320-2 (4-5 ppg)

 

[AngryPatriot]

I like Floyd this year WITH Jackson, wr 3 with wr 2 upside. If Jackson holds out he jumps right into solid wr 2 with good TD production, maybe better. The problem is not knowing the future.

 

[MAC_32]

Naanee > Floyd.

Floyd's good, but he's not a #1. Naanee could be.

 

[Lash]

i see Floyd highfiving Naanee a bunch

68 - 980 - 7 for Naanee

54 - 770 - 5 for Floyd

 

[BoltBacker]

I hate it when people throw players under the "hold-out" umbrella when they don't have a deal and simply don't think the deal they are being offered right now is fair. Much different than players that sign a contact then refuse to honor a contract they have signed.

That said he's in a terrible bargaining position and I would guess he comes to terms with a multi-year extention before the regular season(maybe JUST BEFORE) and since he's familiar with both Rivers and the offense it won't set him back very far.... especially if he's working out with the team during a possible suspension.

How many times in the past decade have players "held out for" 10 or more games? And now, in June, there are people expecting both VJ and McNeil to sit out most of the season on the same team in the same season? I don't buy it.

Sell Malcolm Floyd now imo. If you're drafting soon and want a lottery ticket I'd be more likely to take Naane or Buster Davis(thanks for the links craxie) with that last pick.

 

[EBF]

Floyd got the maximum tender from the team (1st and a 3rd, same as V-Jax). That speaks volumes about their opinion of his importance. I would expect him to be the WR1 and perform reasonably well (maybe 60-65 catches for 900-1000 yards) if V-Jax misses most of the season. Naanee couldn't beat out Floyd last season, so there's no good reason to think he'll be the man here.

 

[Tau837]

Naanee > Floyd.Floyd's good, but he's not a #1. Naanee could be.

Based on what? I disagree. IMO Floyd basically has all the same skills as Jackson, he just doesn't have as much experience. He is already set to start opposite Jackson... Naanee isn't. What makes you think Naanee can be a #1? In 3 seasons, he has 40/375/2 receiving - less than 10 ypr and only 1 TD for every 20 catches. Meanwhile, Floyd averages 16.5 ypr for his career and has 9 TDs in 97 career catches. IMO Floyd will have a breakout season if Jackson sits out 10+ games.

 

[Tau837]

Floyd got the maximum tender from the team (1st and a 3rd, same as V-Jax). That speaks volumes about their opinion of his importance. I would expect him to be the WR1 and perform reasonably well (maybe 60-65 catches for 900-1000 yards) if V-Jax misses most of the season. Naanee couldn't beat out Floyd last season, so there's no good reason to think he'll be the man here.

Great post. I really don't get why so many people seem to think highly of Naanee but completely dismiss Floyd.

 

[We Tigers]

Floyd'll do well--he's a good player and that's a great situation--but I'd be paying attention to Gates. I see a Jackson holdout giving him a significant boost, especially in TDs.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

i have both naanee and floyd. c'mon VJ, sit out the season

 

[MAC_32]

Naanee > Floyd.Floyd's good, but he's not a #1. Naanee could be.

Based on what? I disagree. IMO Floyd basically has all the same skills as Jackson, he just doesn't have as much experience. He is already set to start opposite Jackson... Naanee isn't. What makes you think Naanee can be a #1? In 3 seasons, he has 40/375/2 receiving - less than 10 ypr and only 1 TD for every 20 catches. Meanwhile, Floyd averages 16.5 ypr for his career and has 9 TDs in 97 career catches. IMO Floyd will have a breakout season if Jackson sits out 10+ games.

The unknown, from what I've seen out of Floyd I think he is going to be a solid #2 somewhere, but I think he'd be over matched as a #1. He has play making ability, but his bouts with consistency leave me thinking he wouldn't cut it as a lead guy. A V Jax hold out and a strong September from Floyd and I hope I can deal him.It's my unhealthy infatuation with young upside, when I'm choosing between a guy who is more likely to be nothing but could be great and a guy who should be mediocre, could be good, but won't be great I usually hold out for the likely nothing but potential great piece. Throw enough of them out there and a Miles Austin or Mike Sims Walker is bound to hit, just have to be good with sending a lot of busted wild cards back to the player pool and take a shot on another one.

 

[craxie]

I'd be more likely to take Naane or Buster Davis(thanks for the links craxie) with that last pick.

One new caution for Davis is the signing of Josh Reedhttp://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/ju...-receiver-spot/

“He’s different,” coach Norv Turner said. “He and Buster are similar. All our other guys (Jackson, Floyd and Legedu Naanee) are big guys that are up the field.”

. . .

“Josh and Buster are going to compete for those types of plays,” Turner said.

and then there's this comment from Bill Barnwell

http://footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/...-sign-josh-reed

The Chargers have picked up Josh Reed, formerly of the Bills. Reed had a remarkable 10.1 +/- in 2008, but that figure fell to -1.7 in 2009.

I like the move -- Reed isn't a great player, but he's a good route-runner and intermediate receiver that should blend well with the Chargers' current group of big downfield targets. I don't buy the idea that he's Vincent Jackson insurance.

 

[Bri]

Naanee > Floyd.Floyd's good, but he's not a #1. Naanee could be.

Based on what? I disagree. IMO Floyd basically has all the same skills as Jackson, he just doesn't have as much experience. He is already set to start opposite Jackson... Naanee isn't. What makes you think Naanee can be a #1? In 3 seasons, he has 40/375/2 receiving - less than 10 ypr and only 1 TD for every 20 catches. Meanwhile, Floyd averages 16.5 ypr for his career and has 9 TDs in 97 career catches. IMO Floyd will have a breakout season if Jackson sits out 10+ games.

IIRC Floyd's been there a long time and was a developmental project (of James Lofton?) years ago. There's a significant investment in Floyd, if not money, then in time and coaching. As someone else said, that tender indicates something-I guess they believe he's progressed well and is ready.I like Nanee a lot. I figure both will do well. That is definitely in the Chargers best interest and not this one-guy stuff.

 

[Tau837]

The unknown, from what I've seen out of Floyd I think he is going to be a solid #2 somewhere, but I think he'd be over matched as a #1. He has play making ability, but his bouts with consistency leave me thinking he wouldn't cut it as a lead guy.

What do you mean by the bolded? I'm not following.

 

[Tau837]

FWIW, ProFootballFocus ranked Floyd as the 7th best WR last season and the 11th best WR in 2008. And Football Outsiders shows him with the 7th best DVOA among WRs last season.

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

FWIW, ProFootballFocus ranked Floyd as the 7th best WR last season and the 11th best WR in 2008. And Football Outsiders shows him with the 7th best DVOA among WRs last season.

LOL, anyone that would rank Davone Bess as the 10th best WR loses all credibility.

 

[HoleFiller]

As the deadline to sign their one-year RFA tenders came and went on Monday night, the situation has gotten very dire with San Diego Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson and left tackle Marcus McNeill. As Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote on Tuesday, "the players did not let their full one-year tenders get replaced with a fractional amount just to turn around and show up for training camp -- or even for the first 2.5 months of the season."Bolts GM A.J. Smith appears ready to turn the page. "We are trying to build a championship team, and losing the services of both Vincent and Marcus just made that more difficult -- but not impossible. In due time, Coach (Norv) Turner will name two new starters," he said Tuesday, per Acee. Even more telling was this summation: "It was a very unpleasant situation we all had to deal with. It came to a conclusion today. We will now move forward and focus on the upcoming season."Acee relays word from a source that the two are unlikely to report until after the tenth game of the season, and furthermore, that both have made financial arrangements in case there is a lockout in 2011. Seems like they are both very well entrenched.But as we've seen in the past, Smith is usually not the type to cave either, so this ten-week holdout idea is a very possible outcome. The Bolts already made some roster moves last week to bolster their depth in case the two hold out, adding OT Tra Thomas -- who was immediately inserted into the first-team offense, per Acee -- and WR Josh Reed, who is a candidate to be the starter at slot receiver.

from espn, could get serious

 

[baconisgood]

Floyd got the maximum tender from the team (1st and a 3rd, same as V-Jax). That speaks volumes about their opinion of his importance

The maximum tender doesn't mean much- its a one year contract for 110% of last years salary? It is simply a huge advantage for the owners that kicked in thanks to random circumstances due to the CBA. In the case of Floyd the Chargers clearly have some issues (or potential issues) at WR this year and are using the tender to reduce uncertainty. They did the same thing with Sproles the past 2 seasons in tagging him when they had uncertainty at RB. They paid him as much or probably more per year the past two years but had the luxury of not having to give a large signing bonus or risk losing him before they found someone else. One might have said that the Chargers showed a huge amount of confidence in him when they tagged him again this year but then they traded up in the 1st round for a RB. Tenders and tags are great for teams especially under uncertain circumstances, a long term contract for Floyd would have meant a lot but a tender could just easily mean "lets see what happens with Jackson, Naanee, and Buster this year before we commit anything substantial to Floyd.

 

[baconisgood]

Floyd'll do well--he's a good player and that's a great situation--but I'd be paying attention to Gates. I see a Jackson holdout giving him a significant boost, especially in TDs.

I agree with watching Gates- he could well end up with a career year- which given his career would be HUGE.

 

[MAC_32]

The unknown, from what I've seen out of Floyd I think he is going to be a solid #2 somewhere, but I think he'd be over matched as a #1. He has play making ability, but his bouts with consistency leave me thinking he wouldn't cut it as a lead guy.

What do you mean by the bolded? I'm not following.

His reps throughout a given game. He seems to make a couple big plays/game, and sometimes even great plays per game, but the rest of the time he's either missing them, going less than full speed, or he disappears. I'd be curious about an explanation, but until the media picks up on him, if they ever do, these sorts of stories rarely seem to surface until well after the fact, if at all. It's probably something as simple as not getting off the line well and gets knocked off his routes easily, which is common for bigger WR's.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The maximum tender doesn't mean much- its a one year contract for 110% of last years salary?

No, that's the minimum tender (which all tenders can revert to after June 15). Floyd's tender was for ~$3.2 million.

 

[Mikey16x]

He'll have a slight bump in production. I think he'll have a better season then Naanee as well. The real bump is the obvious choice IMO, and it's Gates.

 

[Tau837]

The unknown, from what I've seen out of Floyd I think he is going to be a solid #2 somewhere, but I think he'd be over matched as a #1. He has play making ability, but his bouts with consistency leave me thinking he wouldn't cut it as a lead guy.

What do you mean by the bolded? I'm not following.

His reps throughout a given game. He seems to make a couple big plays/game, and sometimes even great plays per game, but the rest of the time he's either missing them, going less than full speed, or he disappears. I'd be curious about an explanation, but until the media picks up on him, if they ever do, these sorts of stories rarely seem to surface until well after the fact, if at all. It's probably something as simple as not getting off the line well and gets knocked off his routes easily, which is common for bigger WR's.

I don't see the same issue you do with his "reps throughout a given game." Floyd didn't become a starter until the Chargers' 7th game last year. In the first 6 games, he had 16 targets - less than 3 per game. From the 7th game on, not including week 17, he averaged 5 targets per game. In week 17, Jackson and Naanee did not play, and Floyd had 14 targets (and 9 catches for 140 yards).I think the issue you are citing is simply a result of the fact that the Chargers have had a lot of other very talented receiving options (Gates, Jackson, Sproles, Tomlinson, Chambers).

 

[Sweet Love]

FWIW, ProFootballFocus ranked Floyd as the 7th best WR last season and the 11th best WR in 2008. And Football Outsiders shows him with the 7th best DVOA among WRs last season.

That is a pretty crazy math equation, but considering it has Brandon Marshall ranked as the #32 WR, it isn't worth the paper it is not printed on. If we do delve into their criteria, I know # of plays is a factor...yet, if a guy can't get on the field consistently, it is worthless from a FF standpoint. Even if you "exit" V-Jax, I would guess that ranking goes way down...kind of like a pinch hitter who hits .357 in limited appearances. If you insert him into the starting lineup, would anyone think he would continue at that clip. The fact that the guy has played for one team and is going to be 29, leads me to believe he is not going to "get it" at this point. I think this is more of an opportunity for Davis or Naane than Floyd...he has intermittently had his chances and done very little with them.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Another question to throw into the mix....

Assuming V-Jax misses 10 games, where does that place him in the redraft WR rankings?

Its a big risk considering you only get 6 games out of him, and the first couple he may not even be up to speed. He could make a huge difference in the playoffs for some team though, assuming that the team is able to make the playoffs without him.

I am sure his ranking would be all over the board depending on the risk tolerance of the owner making the rankings.

 

[Tau837]

Another question to throw into the mix....Assuming V-Jax misses 10 games, where does that place him in the redraft WR rankings?Its a big risk considering you only get 6 games out of him, and the first couple he may not even be up to speed. He could make a huge difference in the playoffs for some team though, assuming that the team is able to make the playoffs without him. I am sure his ranking would be all over the board depending on the risk tolerance of the owner making the rankings.

Don't forget that he will likely have to serve a suspension when he gets back. If he sits out 10 games and then serves a 2-4 game suspension upon his return, it's possible his first game will be week 16, championship week in many leagues.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Another question to throw into the mix....Assuming V-Jax misses 10 games, where does that place him in the redraft WR rankings?Its a big risk considering you only get 6 games out of him, and the first couple he may not even be up to speed.

If he reports after the tenth game, he won't play six games. There's going to be a suspension -- maybe two games, maybe four.He'd essentially be gone for the whole fantasy regular season, becoming available during the fantasy playoffs.ETA: To answer the question, right now he's not in my top 60 fantasy WRs. I am the only staffer taking that stance, however.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

not a ton of stats to back any of this up....just what I see.....

I don't see Floyd all of a sudden having a huge bump in production.....I would expect him to post similiar numbers that he has in the past....

Naanee seems to have the "look" and the skill set of a guy that could breakout.....he looked very impressive at times last year....granted some/most of that was in pre-season.....but he just seems to have "it" kinda of like a J. Finley.....I think he will push for some serious time this year especially with the VJ situation......

on a side note...SD should send a message to VJ and sign TO to a one year deal............

 

[Comer]

How does this effect Matthews.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

People are drinking the kool aid on Nannee. Guys that tend to breakout were also productive in college. Nannee was hardly productive in Boise State at all places. My bet is Rivers' numbers drop, Gates numbers increases, or Craig Davis emerges.

Floyd will still be a 700 yd guy.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

FWIW, ProFootballFocus ranked Floyd as the 7th best WR last season and the 11th best WR in 2008. And Football Outsiders shows him with the 7th best DVOA among WRs last season.

That is a pretty crazy math equation, but considering it has Brandon Marshall ranked as the #32 WR, it isn't worth the paper it is not printed on.

More on that here.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

by the time drafts come around, Floyd's stock will probably be rising, but it will be rising because of opportunity, not neccessarily because of talent.....in the fantasy world that doesn't really matter, it's all about the points.....so at some point you have to decide if Floyd is really that talented and is going to produce fantasy stats at his now higher ADP because of his opportunity......then you have to look at the fact that he has had opportunity in the past and hasn't done a ton with it....

for where you can get these guys, Naanee may be the better value/gamble....

if you think that they could put up somewhat similiar numbers, Naanee will be the better value and to me he looks like he has more talent, which might help him take advantage of an opportunity....

even after editing...that didn't make much sense....bottom line I think Naanee has more talent and is developing....I could easily see him ending up with better numbers and I think his ceiling is higher and he has breakout potential.....you can get him much later and the reward could be much higher...

 

[Sweet Love]

FWIW, ProFootballFocus ranked Floyd as the 7th best WR last season and the 11th best WR in 2008. And Football Outsiders shows him with the 7th best DVOA among WRs last season.

That is a pretty crazy math equation, but considering it has Brandon Marshall ranked as the #32 WR, it isn't worth the paper it is not printed on.

More on that here.

I think I have a little throw-up in my mouth...yep, I do. Bobby Meachem as the best "Value Per Play"...sure, when you play as little as he does and have plays designed for you for very specific situations (with guys drawing the main attention), I can see it. I'd like to see what he does without Colston/Bush and Shockey in the lineup. It goes back to my point about pinch hitters...stats can be manipulated any way you want and consistency tends to show the true colors...give Meachem 154 and lets see what he does with them. I also like Avant as the #2 for positive outcomes...guy is a third WR and is has 3rd and long written all over him (even if a decoy). If the team is good at 3rd down conversion, so is Avant. In the end, would you trade V-Jax and Randy Moss for Bobby Meachem and Jason Avant?ETA: In 2008 and 2007, Derrick Ward and Jerrious Norwood led the league in YPC for RBs. I guess it is safe to assume they were the most dynamic backs in those respective years?

 

[ckl81]

FWIW, ProFootballFocus ranked Floyd as the 7th best WR last season and the 11th best WR in 2008. And Football Outsiders shows him with the 7th best DVOA among WRs last season.

That is a pretty crazy math equation, but considering it has Brandon Marshall ranked as the #32 WR, it isn't worth the paper it is not printed on.

More on that here.

I think I have a little throw-up in my mouth...yep, I do. Bobby Meachem as the best "Value Per Play"...sure, when you play as little as he does and have plays designed for you for very specific situations (with guys drawing the main attention), I can see it. I'd like to see what he does without Colston/Bush and Shockey in the lineup. It goes back to my point about pinch hitters...stats can be manipulated any way you want and consistency tends to show the true colors...give Meachem 154 and lets see what he does with them. I also like Avant as the #2 for positive outcomes...guy is a third WR and is has 3rd and long written all over him (even if a decoy). If the team is good at 3rd down conversion, so is Avant. In the end, would you trade V-Jax and Randy Moss for Bobby Meachem and Jason Avant?ETA: In 2008 and 2007, Derrick Ward and Jerrious Norwood led the league in YPC for RBs. I guess it is safe to assume they were the most dynamic backs in those respective years?

Floyd is similar to VJ in terms of skill set, but he's worse pretty much across the board. He's not quite as fast, he has worse hands, not as good a route runner, etc. He will not blow up even if VJ is out. He's a decent for a #2, but he's not a threat. That being said, no one else in the receiving corp will be able to replace VJ. Buster Davis has been getting good reviews during OTAs, but I'm not holding my breath on him. Same with Josh Reed. Nanee will be getting some of the shorter slants and such, he could be a great football player, but he's not going to be a great fantasy player. The biggest beneficiary of this will be Gates, as someone said above. He makes plays regardless of how he's covered, somehow he always finds a seam or settles in a soft spot, every time. Look for defenses to see a healthy dose of Gates and Mathews this year, with a little bit of Sproles mixed in. Floyd, Nanee, Reed and Buster Davis will split the rest, with Floyd likely getting the most action (low end #2 numbers), but I don't see any other solid producers. Sadly, I think the SD offense will disappoint this year, relative to 2009.

 

[_lurker_]

People are drinking the kool aid on Nannee. Guys that tend to breakout were also productive in college. Nannee was hardly productive in Boise State at all places.

Wasn't he a QB in college?Since most NFL WRs were WRs throughout college, it stands to reason that his development would be delayed, yeah?This is certainly a make-break year for Naanee.

 

[Routilla]

Warming up to Floyd with VJ out 3 games minimum plus the hold out.