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What does the loss of McNabb do to Palmer's value? (1 Viewer)

Alias

Alias

Footballguy
may sound like a joke, but a serious question.

Looking at last week's 250 forward (I would wait for it to come out this week but it is notoriously late and this is a short week - sorry FBG crew), Manning & McNabb were 1a & 1b. I wouldn't expect Palmer to shoot up to 1b, but you have to figure his value would at least split the difference so if Manning was let's say #15 overall (McNabb @ 16) and Palmer at 32, do you think his new value would be around 24? Higher or lower?

What say ye?

 
Isotopes said:
You lost me. How are the 2 connected?
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positional strengthA) If your pool of starting QB's goes from 32 to 31 the rankings change.B) If the QB in example A above was QB2 then all of the remaining 30 QB's get a bump up and a new QB32 is introduced ala Garcia or Feeley :)
 
I don't get this. Palmer isn't going to score more points because McNabb is out. Palmer may move up to QB 1B, but he still would likely be a lesser player than the other players that were ranked ahead of him? I don't get the FBG rankings, but why does it matter if he moves up in the top 250 anyway, all he does is move up in the QB rankings as the next best option behind Peyton. And at this point in time, I would move Brees above Palmer, that's just my opinion. Maybe even Manning too, considering that NO will be fighting for a playoff spot, and Indy starters are likely to be riding the pine the last week or two anyway.

 
It bumps him one spot in the rankings... and it lowers the base value (i.e. last starter or else) of the QBs - thus bumping Palmer a bit more in "general" (i.e. with other positions in the equation)...

 
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The point of this thread is for trade evaluations. With the (significant) loss of McNabb, owners are looking for replacements. Perhaps I went too far justifying trade offers for Palmer by bumping his value. But I am certain if Palmer is QB2 in the next set of rankings his position jumps quite a bit. I was just trying to get ahead of the curve.

 
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I don't think the question is strange at all. I think it is a great point.

The overall value of a player at a given position goes up as his ranking within that position goes up. If Peyton went down for the year also, Palmer's value would go up even more, as he is now the top guy at the QB position, and the previous top two guys were replaced in the top 12 (assuming a 12 team league) by the guys previously ranked 13 and 14.

If LT goes down, LJ becomes more valuable. And so on.

 
kutta said:
I don't think the question is strange at all. I think it is a great point.The overall value of a player at a given position goes up as his ranking within that position goes up. If Peyton went down for the year also, Palmer's value would go up even more, as he is now the top guy at the QB position, and the previous top two guys were replaced in the top 12 (assuming a 12 team league) by the guys previously ranked 13 and 14.If LT goes down, LJ becomes more valuable. And so on.
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Two things should be observed related to this thread.1. Palmer will still score the same regardless of what other QB's are doing. I think we all understand that.2. Law of supply and demand makes it's way into the redraft discussion. With McNabb out, Palmer's demand increases, hence he is more valuable. Of course this is meaningless outside of trading him or trading for him. Less impact to dynasty but there is speculative concern regarding McNabb's future, especially for next year.
 
Someone should post a link to VBD for those who don't get the question.

Of course RB "B" is more valuable than QB "B".

However, if the drop from QB "B" to QB "C" is larger than the drop from RB "B" to RB "C" based on that scoring system then QB "B" may indeed be worth more "value" than RB "C" or even RB "B".

For this excerise I would think the best choice is to try to tier the top QB's and decide if the loss of McNabb creates enough of a void that it bumps up another QB artificially.

I would think Manning, Brees, and Palmer are at or around the top 3. If there are others in this category there is probably a drop for example down to Brady and Romo among others.

 
I fully understand your point, the loop hole is that the reason those 2 were at the top, was becuase they out perform their class so much. . . .back to the reason many of us draft QB's so late in the draft.

SO if you eliminate McNabb & Manning. . .yes Palmer/Brees moves up, but so do the rest of the QB's in the league essential. . .simply becuase the distance between each QB isnt very much. . .so instead of having 2 QB's so far out ahead of the pack, you now have 10 that are much closer to the top. . . .

SO, yes, the trade value of Palmer and Brees is going up, but that has more to do with their recent play as opposed to injury . . .they are performing in that upper tier. . . .they don't get in because there is an open seat. . . .they get in becuase their performance is giving them their Yellow Jacket.

If Palmer was performing the way he was several weeks ago would McNabbs injury mean anything? Nope. . .so it doesnt mean anything now. . . .the fact is that Palmer is finaly playing like he did last year.

 
StuntMonkee said:
I fully understand your point, the loop hole is that the reason those 2 were at the top, was becuase they out perform their class so much. . . .back to the reason many of us draft QB's so late in the draft. SO if you eliminate McNabb & Manning. . .yes Palmer/Brees moves up, but so do the rest of the QB's in the league essential. . .simply becuase the distance between each QB isnt very much. . .so instead of having 2 QB's so far out ahead of the pack, you now have 10 that are much closer to the top. . . .SO, yes, the trade value of Palmer and Brees is going up, but that has more to do with their recent play as opposed to injury . . .they are performing in that upper tier. . . .they don't get in because there is an open seat. . . .they get in becuase their performance is giving them their Yellow Jacket.If Palmer was performing the way he was several weeks ago would McNabbs injury mean anything? Nope. . .so it doesnt mean anything now. . . .the fact is that Palmer is finaly playing like he did last year.
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:eek:
 
This becomes oh so more important when you are trading a WR for a QB due to positional scarcity.

Sure there may be some impact when you evaluate QB for QB trades, but once you cross over positions the value changes - specific to the example at hand.

Also since it was such a high ranked QB that went down I think the effect is magnified, when someone like Drew Bledsoe goes down in '06 there is much much less of an impact, essentially only affecting the QB's ranked lower then him, yes the QB's ranked ahead of him also get a slight bump but not as much as the lower tier QB's.

 
The other consideration is that McNabb going out devalues QB's rather than raises their value such that just riding a Harrington/Favre type platoon may be just as viable to an owner as having to give up a stud elsewhere to restock QB.

 
Alias said:
This becomes oh so more important when you are trading a WR for a QB due to positional scarcity.

Sure there may be some impact when you evaluate QB for QB trades, but once you cross over positions the value changes - specific to the example at hand.

Also since it was such a high ranked QB that went down I think the effect is magnified, when someone like Drew Bledsoe goes down in '06 there is much much less of an impact, essentially only affecting the QB's ranked lower then him, yes the QB's ranked ahead of him also get a slight bump but not as much as the lower tier QB's.
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That's fair, but I think it does more for the QB's above in this situation. . . .which leaves Manning. I don't think the injury raises Palmers value as much as the timing that Palmer is playing well right now.You have the same situation with Colson & CJ right now. . . .CJ's value is off the market right now, but that's more to do with the fact that he's posted nearly 500 yards and 5 td's in 2 weeks. . . .not becuase Colston is out.

Yes, both of their Trade values are up. . . .but again. . .I think its 90% performance and 10% injury.

The same argument can be made from a "Under Performance" point of view. from the begining of the season you can look at what each position has done when players like Jordan, Moss, Brooks have all underperformed significantly and incase raised the value of players around their levels.

Don't get me wrong. . .I'm a giddy school girl. . .boy with. . .uh. . . Palmer in my pocket (lol. . .good one), but if anything he's turned into a player that you just don't trade.

DAMN, I had more. . .back to work. . . .ill check in later

 
Seems to me, Palmer's value only goes up in the eyes of the McNabb owner.

But the McNabb situation should not change any other owner's valuation of Palmer. They won't want Palmer any more this week due to some other poor schmoe's bad luck.

Of course, every other QB1-caliber quarterback's value also goes up in the eyes of the McNabb owner (how much depends upon how strong his backup is).

Net-net, the impact on Palmer is minimal.

 
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Palmers value crashed because it means its a matter of time before he gets hurt again...

Sorry, this is one of the dumbest threads out there

 
Well since I had both these guys on my Roster...I'd Say Palmer is Very Valuable to me right now.

Time too go snatch up Joey Harrington!!! :cry:

 
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Alias said:
may sound like a joke, but a serious question.

Looking at last week's 250 forward (I would wait for it to come out this week but it is notoriously late and this is a short week - sorry FBG crew), Manning & McNabb were 1a & 1b. I wouldn't expect Palmer to shoot up to 1b, but you have to figure his value would at least split the difference so if Manning was let's say #15 overall (McNabb @ 16) and Palmer at 32, do you think his new value would be around 24? Higher or lower?

What say ye?
Click to expand...
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