JohnnyU
Footballguy
ADP causes bias and clouds judgment. The best ammunition in fantasy football is player knowledge between your ears.
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Some of the biggest traps most fall victim to in Redraft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
FarFromHome
Footballguy
100%. A winning manager has an open mind and surrounds themselves on message boards with people way smarter then they are. They help shape your rankings.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I like this thought and I understand. I'm not really advocating folks grab a guy 120 at say Pick 60, but I might not wait until Pick 100 to get him either.
QB Example - I love the sweet spot with Goff-Stafford-Tua, there's more but the train starts rolling in the 8th-10th depending on format, I might grab one in the 7th r 8th first if I have a preference but then I'm coming right back in the next round and that's probably after I feast on RB value in the 5th-6th-7th
I tend to like the WRs early although i have a couple RBs that are 2nd round bullseyes unless I get an end pick like 10 or 12 and then I might take one at the end of the 1st and then start whacking away at WRs in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, maybe TE 5th and build what call the blade at WR, I like to be top heavy there and when they go off they can almost cover 2 or 3 of those slots, and if 2 hit on the same weekend which happens a lot, you just need everyone else to show up and not bagel.
Just my opinion.
Good post
FarFromHome
Footballguy
You could at least mention who those couple of RBS that are 2nd round bullseyes for u.
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
I don't know if it's been mentioned already, but consensus ADP matters. Sure, you can be an outside the box thinker and totally disregard herd mentality. That's great, and probably you are having more fun than anyone, taking pride in YOUR players. But I guarantee you, Puka would not have drafted himself as the 4th WR off the board last year. There's reaching for your players, and then there's just being dumb.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
The main thing I use ADP for is if I like 2 players I'm taking the higher ranked one first. It's my best chance to get both.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Always looking from the lens of a FF manager instead of that of the coaches who decide who is on the field. If an RB can't pass protect he loses value no matter how good he is at other things, no coach wants his franchise QB blown up because some running back whiffs on a block. And he can't just put him out there on running plays without telegraphing a run to the defense. The best ability is availability, and that doesn't just mean injured players, being a complete player means something even on plays where they don't touch the ball.
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I agree in your general concept but where would you draw the line between flag plant and being dumb? 2 rounds, 6 rounds, 10 rounds?
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
By doing this you start the QB train a little early. It throws the other managers off their game and shifts their attention to the QB position while you're scooping up other positions of value. I often do the same. Sometimes it works out and sometimes I'm just the dude taking a QB a round or two too early.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Good question, really. The further you get into the rounds the more you can reach. I don't want to draw the line in here, because there will always be someone who wants to argue for the sake or arguing. For example, if I said drafting MVS at 1.1 is dumb, someone would join in and state why it's OK to grab your player. As a general rule, if I feel very confident my player will make it back to me, I will take the risk and pass on them.
For me, I think it depends on how confident I am in my evaluation and how disappointed I will be missing out on that guy. I don't think there is a hard line here which is why I asked the question. To me it is not about "dumb" or reasonable. If you feel strongly enough about not missing a guy you believe in do what you gotta do.
Would I do the same, maybe not but who am I to say it was dumb? I mean you wait and some other guy takes the player 4 rounds above ADP how bummed will you be? Maybe that was dumb waiting then.
It's all a best guess anyway. Have fun and get your guys. I get your take and it seems reasonable.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Lemme ask - do you think drafting MVS at 1.1 is dumb? Because anyone who says no is dumb.
Maybe it's a league made up of all MVS's family and the only way you get him is taking him 1.01. Each league has its own nuances....hahahhaLemme ask - do you think drafting MVS at 1.1 is dumb? Because anyone who says no is dumb.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I'll answer. 4 rounds ahead of ADP is dumb. 3 rounds is just you being drunk. 2 rounds or less is all right all right all right.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
.....or worrying about either. I don't think that is as important as some want to think it is.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
If you guys want to reach because it's more enjoyable or your in a "guppy" league, then have at it.
If you're playing bigger contests or highly competitive leagues then the math is going to win out over time. Two of the best articles ever written....
www.footballguys.com
www.footballguys.com
If you're playing bigger contests or highly competitive leagues then the math is going to win out over time. Two of the best articles ever written....
Expected VBD: Explaining How and Why We Draft
www.footballguys.com
The Best Draft Strategy for 2023 (And Every Other Year)
www.footballguys.com
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Totally depends on what type of league you are playing in.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Tier your players!
Your tiers should tie into ADP - additionally, you can have your list of unicorns that you value beyond their ADP but overdrafting a player beyond their ADP is silly, unless you have a known outlier (injury, suspension, etc.).
I stick to my tiers and ADP and you should only reach beyond a full turn in your draft.
If you are in a 12 team league and pick 24 & 25 but you have a player you covet ranked 26th-47th, you will probably have to select him at 25. This all depends on if you value the guy at 25 higher than the guy with an ADP between 26th-47th. That is why tiering players, to me, is the best remedy for the issue. You can go through your tiers of players and organize your draft. It helps owners understand players available to them at their picks later in the draft, etc.
I don't really find a need in tiering out the first couple rounds. I think tiering and draft approach comes in handy with what the tiers and ADP do to 4th round through 11th round. That is where your draft really starts taking shape. I do not believe drafting a player more than 24 draft spots ahead of his ADP is ever wise, without a change in situation.
Your tiers should tie into ADP - additionally, you can have your list of unicorns that you value beyond their ADP but overdrafting a player beyond their ADP is silly, unless you have a known outlier (injury, suspension, etc.).
I stick to my tiers and ADP and you should only reach beyond a full turn in your draft.
If you are in a 12 team league and pick 24 & 25 but you have a player you covet ranked 26th-47th, you will probably have to select him at 25. This all depends on if you value the guy at 25 higher than the guy with an ADP between 26th-47th. That is why tiering players, to me, is the best remedy for the issue. You can go through your tiers of players and organize your draft. It helps owners understand players available to them at their picks later in the draft, etc.
I don't really find a need in tiering out the first couple rounds. I think tiering and draft approach comes in handy with what the tiers and ADP do to 4th round through 11th round. That is where your draft really starts taking shape. I do not believe drafting a player more than 24 draft spots ahead of his ADP is ever wise, without a change in situation.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Just had a guy draft Breece Hall at 1.1 as a flag plant in a ppr league. What's laughable is...
1. He selected the 1.1 slot.
2. He passed up hundreds of points in Dodd's value not trading down.
But yeah, he's not following the herd.
This is a larger league and just for giggles I checked his finish last year. 22-57. What I expected with a move like that.
1. He selected the 1.1 slot.
2. He passed up hundreds of points in Dodd's value not trading down.
But yeah, he's not following the herd.
This is a larger league and just for giggles I checked his finish last year. 22-57. What I expected with a move like that.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The torture is when two value players with similar ADP have fallen to you, and you know whichever one you don’t pick will be gone before the next round. Especially when picking somewhere in the middle.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
You can’t just start a slow clap.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
How does what kind of league you're in matter if you choose not to pay attention to ADP?
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Zow
Footballguy
Pretty much what I do. "Trust the process."
Zow
Footballguy
Additionally, I think the biggest "trap" we fall in to is overvaluing the draft. With the market now so saturated with information and rankings, even a novice drafter is going to still draft a reasonably decent team. In other words, I think we can only hope to gain a very marginal advantage at the draft. So, don't put too much pressure on the draft (i.e. just don't screw it up) and, instead, focus your efforts on trades, the waiver wire, and weekly lineup decisions as that's where the league is most often won.
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Zow
Footballguy
Uh, I do think it's objectively dumb to take a player 4 rounds ahead of his ADP.
Zow
Footballguy
Interesting - I try to do the opposite of what you preach here and don't ever designate players as "not my guys" A player may certainly not be "my guy" at his ADP, but eventually he will fall so far that he naturally becomes "my guy" if he falls to where I have him valued/ranked.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
If it's part of a larger contest like the FBG league, if you take Marvin Harrison in the mid first (because you project him at WR2 overall) rather than mid second, you basically traded your first round pick for a second round pick to every other Harrison owner. Trading your first round pick for a second isn't a winning strategy.
If you are in a league of skilled owners, even if you're 3% better at talent evaluation then the rest, if you're giving up that advantage burning up draft capital.
If you are in a league with your kids and their girlfriends, then you can afford to plant your flags whenever you want because your talent evaluation skills will overcome burning up draft capital and ADP won't mean much anyway.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I don't give a hill of beans about ADP. I choose players because of my knowledge of them and how I perceive them mentally. If that is ranking mentally, so be it.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
I don't care much about ADP because I play auction leagues and the average draft values don't really mean all that much. Auctions are much more league specific. Much more fun IMO.
joey
Footballguy
I don't know how folks can brush off ADP so easily.
Say I do my own projections for every player in a vacuum to predict how **I** think they'll finish.
It's not like I'm just ending up with a list of a single player I'll take in each round. I'll always have groups/tiers of players to chose from.
If I LOVE Players A and B to both have great years based on my own projections, why would I want to ignore where OTHERS are taking those two players in case there's a chance I can get BOTH of them, say if one of the players goes in round 4 and the other's ADP is round 7?
I just don't get how ADP isn't a logical part of the formula that we don't all instinctively bring to the table.
Heck, a simpler version is if I'm picking at the 11 slot, and the owner at the turn will take 2 players, OF COURSE I'm going consider which of my top ranked players I think will more likely be available in 3 picks.
2.5 cents
Say I do my own projections for every player in a vacuum to predict how **I** think they'll finish.
It's not like I'm just ending up with a list of a single player I'll take in each round. I'll always have groups/tiers of players to chose from.
If I LOVE Players A and B to both have great years based on my own projections, why would I want to ignore where OTHERS are taking those two players in case there's a chance I can get BOTH of them, say if one of the players goes in round 4 and the other's ADP is round 7?
I just don't get how ADP isn't a logical part of the formula that we don't all instinctively bring to the table.
Heck, a simpler version is if I'm picking at the 11 slot, and the owner at the turn will take 2 players, OF COURSE I'm going consider which of my top ranked players I think will more likely be available in 3 picks.
2.5 cents
Scoresman
Footballguy
ADP is such a valuable tool in so many ways.
In my auction league, I plot this year's ADP vs. the last few years on a line graph. This is to help estimate player prices as player prices are strongly correlated with ADP. Predicting player prices and planning accordingly is the single best piece of research I do specific to my auction league.
For snake drafts, I follow ADP to a point. I do feel that if you feel strongly about a player, it's worth getting them even if it's a bit ahead of ADP if you think there's a decent chance they will not be there next round.
In my auction league, I plot this year's ADP vs. the last few years on a line graph. This is to help estimate player prices as player prices are strongly correlated with ADP. Predicting player prices and planning accordingly is the single best piece of research I do specific to my auction league.
For snake drafts, I follow ADP to a point. I do feel that if you feel strongly about a player, it's worth getting them even if it's a bit ahead of ADP if you think there's a decent chance they will not be there next round.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
People are entitled to play however they want. You might enjoy shooting 2pt jumpers or be the best 2pt shooter in the hood, but you are leaving points on the table by not stepping back to the 3pt range.
Depends on the league and how much you believe in a guy. By this I mean, ADP is an average. Your league may not follow the "average" part of the ADP and if you know your league you know when you need to 'reach" if it's a guy you believe in.
The concept of drafting a guy 4 rounds above ADP being a detriment is true in a perfect world. But the ADP is not correct with actual outcomes. I would guess it is probably never right and has swings of at least a round or two in actual performance.
I could get behind the concept of staying within a round of ADP if it was based on actual performance. Unfortunately, it is nothing more than a general groupthink and it gets skewed by any bit of news which can then lead to a snowball effect of moving a guy up or down in the "rankings".
ADP is a piece of information to be used a starting point and general guideline. Knowing your league and how they draft then allows you to adjust off of that general guideline. It's not an end all be all. It's just one more piece to the puzzle.
Zow
Footballguy
So you're just willing to say that you won't draft a guy, period?
For example, if like an Xavier Worthy is there in the 16th or whatever but you think he can never get off the line of scrimmage you're just gonna pass on him and take like a backup TE or something? That seems odd to me.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Yup
It's the 5th round and I'm eying two players:
John Football - Enormous flag plant, 6/7 turn ADP
Joe Touchdown - Normal flag plant, 5th rd ADP
I'm taking Joe Touchdown in the 5th and the 90% chance I get John Football in the 6th over
taking John Football in the 5th and the 10% chance I get Joe Touchdown in the 6th.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Didn’t say that, but I will say that, sure.
There are players who burn the FF community every year, and then the next year some hype builds - best shape of his life, X receiver left, so Y receiver will step up, etc, etc.
And then the guys I was talking about who I’m just not a fan of, who I’ve avoided in the past, but then I get to my pick & “they’re such a value here”.
That value is largely on paper based on group think, and I believe it’s wise to ignore that and follow your gut.
There are definitely players I am comfortable saying I won’t draft, but that’s 99% because their ADP is similar to guys I want to draft.
But even if that GIDNWTD is there a full round later, I’ll still draft a GIWTD over him, “value” be damned.
That seems less “odd” and more like the textbook definition of a straw man so you could make a point for me then call it “odd”. Cmon. Be better than that.
For one, Worthy won’t be there in the 16th, and for 2, that in no way even vaguely resembles the point I was making about *players I’ve never been high on but who have proved me wrong in the past*.
Worthy’s a rookie last time I checked so he doesn’t at all fit that scenario.
And I never said I was writing this in stone -I won’t know until I’m in the position to make that decision. But I am very comfortable saying there are players I won’t be drafting because I don’t want them on my team at or even past their ADP.
Ridley is one of those guys this year. I bit last year despite not really wanting him, but “the value was too good” in the 5th. He was maddeningly inconsistent and when I look back at the 4-5 players I was choosing between, all ended up having better, more consistent seasons.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Man, I haven’t heard of either of those dudes.
I really need to start my draft prep.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Key words in this sentence are "my top ranked players". Whether that is "your" ADP or ranking or an "ADP" or ranking from some website, some of us have mentally ranked players and don't need to reference some list. Nor do I want to. I think I have an idea how player A compares to players B, C, D without having to reference some ranking, whether mine, and especially not someone else's ranking.
Part of making this choice is also dependent upon knowing your leagues. That percentage that J Football makes it back can be anywhere between 20-90%. If this is a Philly league and the player in question is DeVonta Smith there is no way he makes it to the 6/7 turn and if you really believe in that guy you better take him over the J TD guy.
I also don't really see much different between a guy with a 5 ADP or a 6/7 ADP in the grand scheme of things. Talking in these hypotheticals is kind of silly. There are too many variables for either pick to be right or wrong because ADP is nothing more than an average draft slot based on groupthink standards in many different scenarios and has no direct bearing on how that player will perform.
An interesting study would be to take the ADP of a particular year and use that to list all players from 1 to X. Then compare that to the actual finish at the end of the year. I would be curious to see how close those matched. My gut feel says it will be wildly different with an ever increasing difference the later you go and even the first couple rounds being quite a bit different in ADP vs Actual.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
My post above showed a study over 10 years. End of year VBD correlated with ADP. Group think wins out.
Interesting. I would never have guessed that it would follow EXACTLY to ADP. I mean every single player falls in line so that the #1 QB by ADP was always better than the #2 and so on and so forth....for every position.
Intuitively it doesn't make sense to me. Things are never that perfect. I wonder if there is some mixing of data and that the ADP number is actually QB1 based on final standings of points scored which would make sense that QB1>QB2>QB3 etc and follows for every single position (RB/WR/TE/K/TD). And it would make sense to follow a strict ADP model if the ADP QB1 was always the QB1 at the end of the season but we know that isn't true. I wonder what percentage of time the ADP QB1 finishes at the End of Year (EOY) QB1. If I have time I will see if I can find some previous ADP data and compare that to final finishes (the data you referenced didn't specifically show that kind of information - or at least it didn't define it in those straight terms).
ETA: Just looking at the last two years it doesn't hold at all. Here is what I found using Fantasy Pros ADP data vs Actual Finish in a 6 pt All TD format:
2023:
- ADP1: Mahomes (actual finish QB11)
- ADP2: Hurts (QB3)
- ADP3: Allen (QB1)
- ADP4: Lamar (QB5)
- ADP5: Burrow (QB23)
- ADP6: Herbert (QB15)
- ADP7: Fields (QB18)
- ADP8: Lawrence (QB16)
- ADP9: Watson (QB34)
- ADP10: Dak (QB2)
- ADP1: Allen (QB2)
- ADP2: Mahomes (QB1)
- ADP3: Herbert (QB12)
- ADP4: Lamar (QB15)
- ADP5: Hurts(QB3)
- ADP6: Burrow (QB4)
- ADP7: Rodgers (QB14)
- ADP8: R. Wilson (QB18)
- ADP9: Dak (QB17)
- ADP10: Cousins (QB7)
That data is all over the place and doesn't seem to follow the ADP1 is the best pick for the position as the data referenced seems to show. I may be missing something and would love further explanation if I am.
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
I'll have to re-read it because it's been awhile. I think what it means is that if you took all the finishes of the QB1 over the ten years that they would be higher than the QB2 which would be higher than the QB3, etc. Over any specific year it will fluctuate.
Now that doesn't rule out you knowing Joe Burrow sucks, starts slow, and always disappoints and reaping the rewards by avoiding him. In terms of this study, he would be in a different ADP most years and dragging all the ADP slots down.
Bottom line is that their are a lot of smart nerds generating rankings which set ADP. Many get paid to do it for a living. I'd put it a step below Vegas, but the same principle applies. Everyone thinks they know where the weaknesses are in the Vegas lines, but only a select few actually do in reality. I'll go so far as to say that one of you, Johnny U, Hot Sauce, or MOP knows more than the ADP. Problem is three of you don't.
And I get that part of the fun can be doing it yourself. Sort of like playing daily FF tournaments where Fandual is taking almost 19% vig. Only a handful of people are beating that over the long term, but it's still fun to play.
If this is the case then ADP is irrelevant to those tables because they are based on after the fact numbers.
That was my point from the beginning. ADP would matter more if people drafted perfectly but that doesn't happen.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
ADP 1- 4, 8, 1, 4, 10 = 5.4
ADP 2 - 1, 15, 4, 3, 9 = 6.4
ADP 3 - 7, 20, 1, 8, 3 = 7.8
3 ADP positions and their actual finishing position over 5 years. In any given year the end result looks random, over time it reflects the ADP. The early the masses draft a player the more likely the outcome will be better. If you draft to maximize ADP value, over time your results will be better than the average.
Going back to an actual example from today. 72 teams in this league so there are 6 copies of every player. One guy took Breece at 1.1. The other two copies available today went at #3 and #6. The guy who took Breece at 1 spotted the guy at 6 302 draft points. How much value is that? 1.1 and 4.7 = 1.6 and 2.12. He has basically spotted anyone getting Hall at 1.6 or later a 2.12 for a 4.7. So now not only does his flag plant on Hall have to be right, he has to find an early 3rd round talent with his 4.12 pick just to be on par.
The problem is 1 season is a finite situation. This may be true over 1000 seasons on average (although I don't agree that there is any difference between taking Hall 1.01, 1.03, or 1.06 since they are all first round picks) but our seasons are finite. It's one season.
I will agree that taking a guy X rounds early puts you at a theoretical disadvantage but I think your league has more to do what that exact round differential comes into play.
I also believe that luck plays too big a role in who actually wins that the marginal difference of taking a couple guys a few rounds earlier than ADP really has no bearing on your overall reaults.
I get the theoretical math. I just think there are too many variables at play for an individual league for strict adherence to ADP to make a difference. Plus it's not fun and this is supposed to be fun.
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