Some of the biggest traps most fall victim to in Redraft (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

I have a few of these but what I'm about to share is going to be painful for some of you.

-I used to sit there and run stats all day in the 90s, then the internet and sites like this one made it a little easier to get a grand total and make a few adjustments, I did that for a while.
Here is the truth, a few players at all the positions are consistent year in and year out and it's really not that many, very few WRs can post 1,000 yds a year 3-4-5 years in a row, it's not common.

Why do we try and pigeon hole ourselves by being chained to a bunch of stats that are not likely to show up the same as last season or as they are projected?
Many will giggle and laugh at me but I use index cards and just keep making notes on the back after the season and so on and so forth and sometimes I have to staple a 2nd index card to keep writing season after season. Sometimes we forget about big things that happen during the season that we should try and remember when we are evaluating players in July for Redrafts

Many times stats don't tell the whole story and we forget sometimes why we like or dislike a player.
I might write something like this on the back, scored but was busted coverage in a blowout, that's important IMHO, when are these stats coming and are they sustainable?

Not exactly blowing your kilt up yet you say? I have a few more for you to chew on.


-ADP or Average Draft Position...now I love me some ADP but not for the reasons you might think.
This is MoP on the com, we're not passing out popcorn and lollipops right now, you need to know why this tool is so valuable in my eyes vs what most use it for.
I'm a rotten no good Son of a Biscuit and when the herd takes off, MoP uses that info not only to go another way but to also circumvent you and your ability to take players off my personal draft board that might be coveted. I cannot tell you the number of times I read things like "What was I gonna do on the 4/5 turn?"...well what difference does it make what round it is other than the fact you have a certain number of roster spots?

Outside the Box: What if you knew players that were going later in other rounds or very late or even undrafted but you could peer into the future and see their stats?
What if in order to get these guys and not run out of roster spots, you had to start drafting guys in the 8th or 9th round, double digits but it's the 4/5 turn and there isn't anyone down the board next 2-3 rounds that will help you because you can see their stats as well, what would you do? Would you just keep taking guys that aren't gonna help you? Hell Bleeping No, you would start collecting all the top players even if you have to reach because its really not a reach when you get comfortable with your evaluations of players.

I have news some of you, there are guys going in the 1st round that shouldn't which is scary and we're gonna hear these folks cry about it before we even get out of September
There are guys going in the 2nd and 3rd round, maybe a little further out that I think will be 1st round picks next year, see what I did there? Who will be drafted in the 1st round of 2025?
And if you think that's a goofball way of thinking, all the better for MoP

BTW: Underdog $3 best ball leagues, payout is 27-10-6, no waivers, just draft and forget about it.
Best ball vs setting a line up each week but no real management needed. If you haven't checked it out, I would tell you it's a great way to practice up for some of your other more established leagues, don't get hung up that it's best ball, that's the best format for what they are doing or offering here.

My 3rd entry into this OP is going to focus on what I find to be misleading many times and folks fall for it every year time and time again...just to really land the plane I am going to share something some of you may not be aware of but you would if you frequent the FFA...75% of all TV ads running right now are put there by Pharmaceutical companies "Talk to Your Doctor" Without going on a complete sidetrack I just want to get your attention and understand that ALL of us are victims to wanting to find answers and then we get served some info that really does not help but appears like a real solution such as "O-O-O-OZempic, you knowwwwww, never believe what we say"

And so I turn to the Sports media/social media outlets/media of all kinds
Now I like a good camp report as much as the next person, eyes on the field and can see who the fastest guy is, which WR is having the best connection with the QB, etc...
But the reality is most of these folks get paid to report on the team, however they cannot come right out and say this team sucks in preseason

Chris Perkins
Omar Kelly
Armando Salguero...he carried that Miami flag for many years when they SUCKED
Barry
Greg Cote, yes him too
David Hyde
and I can keep naming the local beat writers for the Miami Dolphins, there's 1 or 2 that are not connected directly to the Miami Herald, The Palm Beach Post...these guys that write have to be welcome into the building of the teams they support. If you're banned from the stadium for being honest, you can't exactly get a good interview after the game. Most of these writers are *** kissers to be honest with you. I had a guy inside that was working with Miami back in 2010-2011, somewhere around that time I felt lucky to have am inside connection. I can't reveal this guy's name for what I'm about to share but when I would go to support him at events and mingle, I quickly discovered he had a rather large cocaine problem and I don't judge, we've all been there...oh we haven't? OK, but here is what I know about people who are trying to work professionally and are addicted to drugs, they usually cannot filter and will make bad decisions at terrible times and find themselves out of a job...this guy was too honest and he didn't last long around here.

The guys who keep their jobs on the local level tend to kiss up to the owner and players, it's just part of the job
Who do you think leaks out info to the public when "sources" within the organization want to use a media member for their selfish purposes?
We all got to make a living, these guys are no different and they try not to bite the hand that feeds them but we gotta call it like it is.

-Let's take that and expand out on a lot of websites that are not really local but spit out info faster than you can print and read it on the run up to the season starting
I would bet there are numerous articles online I can find that will tell you Cooper Kupp is toast and Puka Nacua is now the bonafide No 1 in L.A.
And I bet there are numerous articles that are telling you to grab Cooper Kupp and cash in on his discount in the 3rd-4th round
Whatever player you want to find out about, you'll find an article online to meet your needs, I just don't think many writers can watch games the same as I do and I definitely don't think they take down note cards and keep an ongoing list of items to draw from.

From opening kick off to about the last whistle on SNF, i try and watch as many/ALL of them. You know people in your leagues that don't and yet they will draft players they've rarely seen play and hope for the best.
And I know what a few of you are thinking and that brings me to FBG which I feel is one of the more/most honest sites and they should be, not affiliated with any one team, just a passion for what we do here in the Shark Pool, reporting the facts as they see it. Joe has every game covered on Sunday, he has people that will watch all 3 hours without much interruption, most newspaper writers have deadlines and a lot of their article is already written by about midway thru the 3rd quarter and a few of them are too busy drinking and eating hot dogs up in the press box to really focus on the game.

-Media bad, dishonest and spits out misinformation, you're far better off watching the games yourself and forming your own opinions...in a nutshell

I like the Twitter clips where guys break down film as we are watching it, I find those to be somewhat informative but again they just focus on one or two plays sometimes, doesn't tell the whole story. Did I say Twitter? Sorry, what's it called now, Y or Z?

And with this I am going to pause and conclude the OP but i want to hear from many of you and you tell me what traps you find common
I have more but this is a good place to stop and digest some of this. I'm sure a few of you are going to tell me I'm nuts and have counter POV, all good

 

[Gally]

Outside the Box: What if you knew players that were going later in other rounds or very late or even undrafted but you could peer into the future and see their stats?
What if in order to get these guys and not run out of roster spots, you had to start drafting guys in the 8th or 9th round, double digits but it's the 4/5 turn and there isn't anyone down the board next 2-3 rounds that will help you because you can see their stats as well, what would you do? Would you just keep taking guys that aren't gonna help you? Hell Bleeping No, you would start collecting all the top players even if you have to reach because its really not a reach when you get comfortable with your evaluations of players.

This is why people that talk about getting "value" every pick are fooling themselves. Nobody knows what "value" is because nobody knows what will happen. This is a flawed concept and ties into your ADP statment. Too many people base value on selection vs ADP. The fact is nobody knows what is true or not. I don't mind "reaching" for the guys I believe in based on my evaluations. It's probably why I like being on an end when drafting in a snake draft. It forces me to trust my evals and go after players I believe in because in many cases they won't come back. Do I get it right all the time? heck no, But it's much more fun trusting myself then going off some random cheatsheet created by someone else.

Who will be drafted in the 1st round of 2025?
And if you think that's a goofball way of thinking, all the better for MoP

I think this is a genius way to look at it and it's something I do even if I have never really put it into those words. This game is about predicting the future not assuming the past will happen again because it rarely does. By thinking along these lines it can give you clarity as to what will happen. It's a great mindset when drafting.

 

[Mister CIA]

I was going to say that keeping my rose-colored dynasty glasses on during redraft is a trap I always fall for (don't play in any big money redrafts), but I think you just convinced me otherwise (that see into the future thing).

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Drafting with a forward lens vs backwards one is critical, but I do think the FF community is getting wiser to this. But that's a good way of putting it.

...here are a few of mine.

DST's matter: Time and time again, I hear...'wait until Round 16 to get your DST'. But I prefer to grab my DST early. And quite frankly, sometimes I'll grab 2. Generally, by going this route, you can get 1/2 Top 5 units. And they make great in-season deal additives and invariably everyone elses pre-season favorite sleepers bust and the WW starts to get picked clean at this position.

Time is a flat circle: 2 years ago when DeAndre Hopkins was suspended for 6 games, he was ridiculosuly cheap. But because he was missing Weeks 1-6, he generated no interest. In 9 games, he went 64/717/3...close to WR1 production...for WR4 prices. Draft a 14 week team...not just what looks good Week 1. Whether it's PUP guys, suspended guys...think about full season impact.

Boring is beautiful: Tyler Lockett has made a (fantasy) career out of continually over performing his ADP. The dirty secret about ADP is not only is it largely a popularity contest, but there's sex appeal attached to it as well. But our goal should be to buy production so look for situations as much as players and build your structure by reverse engineering your team.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Here's my personal favorite redraft trap:

Injuries matter. They do ... just not in the way you think. There are a small subset of freak athletes (looking at you, Jordan Reed) whose bodies are just not built to withstand the rigors of the NFL. But other than those edge cases, 95% of injuries are random. I assume that a guy who missed significant time last year with a non-catastrophic injury (Achilles, multiple knee ligaments, etc.) will be no more likely to miss time this year than his healthy counterpart, and guess what? I'm usually right. But I can get him at a discount - sometimes a big one.

If a guy is capable of taking over games and being an elite option at his position, I generally want him on my roster, and let the injury chips fall where they may. Give me alllllll the shares of Jonathan Taylor, Mark Andrews, Cooper Kupp, and so on this season.

 

[travdogg]

Time is a flat circle: 2 years ago when DeAndre Hopkins was suspended for 6 games, he was ridiculosuly cheap. But because he was missing Weeks 1-6, he generated no interest. In 9 games, he went 64/717/3...close to WR1 production...for WR4 prices. Draft a 14 week team...not just what looks good Week 1. Whether it's PUP guys, suspended guys...think about full season impact.

Taylor and Kamara were huge for teams that stole them as RB3s last year.

Here's my personal favorite redraft trap:

Injuries matter. They do ... just not in the way you think. There are a small subset of freak athletes (looking at you, Jordan Reed) whose bodies are just not built to withstand the rigors of the NFL. But other than those edge cases, 95% of injuries are random. I assume that a guy who missed significant time last year with a non-catastrophic injury (Achilles, multiple knee ligaments, etc.) will be no more likely to miss time this year than his healthy counterpart, and guess what? I'm usually right. But I can get him at a discount - sometimes a big one.

If a guy is capable of taking over games and being an elite option at his position, I generally want him on my roster, and let the injury chips fall where they may. Give me alllllll the shares of Jonathan Taylor, Mark Andrews, Cooper Kupp, and so on this season.

These are my favorite things to take advantage of year in and year out. Guys who are not playing week 1, and guys who were injured the season before but not majorly. I think people very much think WAY too many guys are injury prone when like you said its 95% random. To add to your list, I'm all in on DeVon Achane, Josh Jacobs, and Tank Dell as well. Maybe not Taylor, but that's only as a top-10 pick.

 

[packdog]

they key to all the points in this thread is this...everyone is wrong! i include myself. whether it be due to injury, or buying into empty hype, or just plain old disappointment it effects everyone. i recognize from the jump i will be wrong but it ain't no thing. the draft is just the draft. i like variance for this reason (i also have 30-40 leagues every year). guys i like in mid and later rounds i will tend to stack. but otherwise just be active on waivers. far more important than the draft. the insane amount of puka and kyren i had last year bumped up quite a few of my teams. seemed a lot were iffy on jumping in right away. just like jrob some years before. the first couple weeks always seem to bear the tastiest fruit. every year i make the playoffs in 60-70% of my leagues. sure a few stinkers will be in there on ones i was super wrong on. but just make the playoffs and hope for the best. being active and not scared to blow your FAAB or top waiver claim is what could propel your teams to glory and profit

 

[packdog]

Here's my personal favorite redraft trap:

Injuries matter. They do ... just not in the way you think. There are a small subset of freak athletes (looking at you, Jordan Reed) whose bodies are just not built to withstand the rigors of the NFL. But other than those edge cases, 95% of injuries are random. I assume that a guy who missed significant time last year with a non-catastrophic injury (Achilles, multiple knee ligaments, etc.) will be no more likely to miss time this year than his healthy counterpart, and guess what? I'm usually right. But I can get him at a discount - sometimes a big one.

If a guy is capable of taking over games and being an elite option at his position, I generally want him on my roster, and let the injury chips fall where they may. Give me alllllll the shares of Jonathan Taylor, Mark Andrews, Cooper Kupp, and so on this season.

i don't know many skill position players where i'd classify Achilles as minor. that's like a nail in a RB's coffin particularly. only rb in recent memory that overcame that was foreman kinda. akers and jrob were recent deaths. dobbins is the test case this year

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Here's my personal favorite redraft trap:

Injuries matter. They do ... just not in the way you think. There are a small subset of freak athletes (looking at you, Jordan Reed) whose bodies are just not built to withstand the rigors of the NFL. But other than those edge cases, 95% of injuries are random. I assume that a guy who missed significant time last year with a non-catastrophic injury (Achilles, multiple knee ligaments, etc.) will be no more likely to miss time this year than his healthy counterpart, and guess what? I'm usually right. But I can get him at a discount - sometimes a big one.

If a guy is capable of taking over games and being an elite option at his position, I generally want him on my roster, and let the injury chips fall where they may. Give me alllllll the shares of Jonathan Taylor, Mark Andrews, Cooper Kupp, and so on this season.

i don't know many skill position players where i'd classify Achilles as minor. that's like a nail in a RB's coffin particularly. only rb in recent memory that overcame that was foreman kinda. akers and jrob were recent deaths. dobbins is the test case this year

I think he meant to say that those were examples of catastrophic injuries. At least that’s how I interpreted it. Seems like a few words are missing.

 

[packdog]

Here's my personal favorite redraft trap:

Injuries matter. They do ... just not in the way you think. There are a small subset of freak athletes (looking at you, Jordan Reed) whose bodies are just not built to withstand the rigors of the NFL. But other than those edge cases, 95% of injuries are random. I assume that a guy who missed significant time last year with a non-catastrophic injury (Achilles, multiple knee ligaments, etc.) will be no more likely to miss time this year than his healthy counterpart, and guess what? I'm usually right. But I can get him at a discount - sometimes a big one.

If a guy is capable of taking over games and being an elite option at his position, I generally want him on my roster, and let the injury chips fall where they may. Give me alllllll the shares of Jonathan Taylor, Mark Andrews, Cooper Kupp, and so on this season.

i don't know many skill position players where i'd classify Achilles as minor. that's like a nail in a RB's coffin particularly. only rb in recent memory that overcame that was foreman kinda. akers and jrob were recent deaths. dobbins is the test case this year

I think he meant to say that those were examples of catastrophic injuries. At least that’s how I interpreted it. Seems like a few words are missing.

ah, you are right. wrong again for me as usual

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I was going to say that keeping my rose-colored dynasty glasses on during redraft is a trap I always fall for (don't play in any big money redrafts), but I think you just convinced me otherwise (that see into the future thing).

Amen Brother!

-Easily one of my biggest warnings for those who frequent these boards are the amount of Dynasty players that wade into Redraft strategies, these heretics are loaded with rookie info coming out of their brains in May because that's mostly all they can do to change their arc outside of trades of course.

-They play long ball or down the road, 2-3 seasons and I'm only interested in who is going to be Drafted in the 1st round of 2025, typically that's who is going to have a field day in 2024, just how it works as I've come to find out over the years.

-One of the things I used to do in Dynasty when I played and I was late to the party on that, coming redraft many times I could win a title my first year taking over someone else's team if I was willing to trade away the best prospects and picks for the May rookie drafts, i could usually make a quick run that same season, because I had a Redraft mindset and I found quickly I did not have the patience to slowly build out

-And finally, always remember that when they close up shop in December, most of their team is coming back with them the following year, i'm lucky if I have even 3 or 4 of the same players from the previous year on my roster.

Different mentality and mindsets, love my Dynasty Heads for keeping me informed on all the new rookies entering the league, I'm usually ahead of the others and that I'm thankful for
But I distance myself from most when it comes Redraft and I usually step on several toes and feet because I have a negative outlook on players they have invested in for the future but all I care about the upcoming Sept thru Dec outlook

i was hard on Anthony Richardson last season and for good reason but I got pummeled by Dynasty players that loved him coming out of Florida.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Drafting with a forward lens vs backwards one is critical, but I do think the FF community is getting wiser to this. But that's a good way of putting it.

...here are a few of mine.

DST's matter: Time and time again, I hear...'wait until Round 16 to get your DST'. But I prefer to grab my DST early. And quite frankly, sometimes I'll grab 2. Generally, by going this route, you can get 1/2 Top 5 units. And they make great in-season deal additives and invariably everyone elses pre-season favorite sleepers bust and the WW starts to get picked clean at this position.

Time is a flat circle: 2 years ago when DeAndre Hopkins was suspended for 6 games, he was ridiculosuly cheap. But because he was missing Weeks 1-6, he generated no interest. In 9 games, he went 64/717/3...close to WR1 production...for WR4 prices. Draft a 14 week team...not just what looks good Week 1. Whether it's PUP guys, suspended guys...think about full season impact.

Boring is beautiful: Tyler Lockett has made a (fantasy) career out of continually over performing his ADP. The dirty secret about ADP is not only is it largely a popularity contest, but there's sex appeal attached to it as well. But our goal should be to buy production so look for situations as much as players and build your structure by reverse engineering your team.

You've been a great poster for a long time, we kinda lose you in the off season but you always are vocal about this time of year. I know you will have a sleeper thread or something to get some discussion going on a few dark horses and it draws people in and many want to voice their picks alongside yours

Really appreciate your contribution here over many seasons
Thanks!

 

[Grid71]

Cheap Underdog drafts are fantastic for getting in tune with ADP. If you are only doing a small number of drafts, makes sense to do exactly what you say. Identify your guys and reach to get em. Believe in your inner Carnac players. You can get away with that in the small 12 team format. However, that is a trap in large contests like BBMV for 1.5 million top prize. Same with larger field small priced contests like the puppies.

Trap in large contests because when you reach on too many players it puts you at a disadvantage to other teams.

Example, let’s say last year you had super duper inside info from Sean McVey and correctly predicted Kyren Williams would finish top 5 with an 18th round ADP. Taking him in the 2nd or 3rd puts you at a disadvantage vs all the other Kyren teams in the playoffs. Your 2nd round Kyren pairs with your 18th round player vs the playoff Field Kyren paired with their 2nd round CeeDee Lamb.

You’d have to be incredibly correct with all your other takes after reaching on a player ahead of ADP.

Other trap in large underdog contests is just picking players you like without correlation. Each draft should tell a story. Making a bet on a player is often betting on a team exceeding expectations. BBM4 winning team rostered Aman-Ra and Sam Laporta betting on Detroit being better than expected with a week 17 bring back vs Dallas’ CeeDee Lamb. He also had Miami and Green Bay stacks with bring backs. Told a story if Miami, GB or Detroit game turns into a major shootout, he has key pieces correlated to give him an edge over teams without. So your super duper hodgepodge team is less likely to beat out teams that hit on a monster week 17 Minnesota Green Bay barn burner.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Don’t fall into the trap of the “perfect draft” - you’ll read 37 perfect draft articles & every single one of them will be a monumental waste of time.

Having a plan is good.

Knowing your league & the other managers tendencies is better.

Letting the draft come to you & being prepared to abandon your original plan at any time is best.

It’s good to have an idea of which players you like & where they go ADP-wise, but I find it’s better to hit the mental refresh button every time I’m on the clock.

Each round, I’ll look at my roster, and I’ll look at each list of players by position. Maybe my plan was to go WR-WR-WR, but there I am in the late 2nd and a RB I’m very high on fell further than expected. Maybe it represents a larger tier break to the next RB than the WR there does to the next group of WRs. I’m at least going to take the time to make that evaluation before blindly sticking to my perfect draft plan.

The fact is there’s no such thing as a perfect draft. Every draft has its own life, and often times ADP goes sideways when you’re playing with seasoned managers. As with @Gally, folks in my league aren’t afraid to reach by a lot to get their guy. That can lead to some wonky ADP, and can also make it so that sleeper you were targeting late gets gobbled up 2 rounds before you expected.

Finally, in the same theme of draft flow, pay attention to the rosters of the managers between you and your next pick. I know a 90 or 120 second clock isn’t the most time, but more often than not it’s worth the time this one takes. Especially close to the turn. If you’re at the 3rd draft position & about to go QB, but teams 1.01 & 1.02 have Allen ~> Mahomes, there’s absolutely no logical reason for you to take a QB in an even round. Take the best non-QB player, then grab your guy on the way back*. Every year I see league mates do this and it’s mystifying to me.

*one year in this exact scenario the dude at 1.02 who already had an elite QB took a 2nd top 5 QB, but I consider that to be rare. People do squirrelly s**t sometimes & I’m not in that league any more.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Don’t fall into the trap of the “perfect draft” - you’ll read 37 perfect draft articles & every single one of them will be a monumental waste of time.

Having a plan is good.

Knowing your league & the other managers tendencies is better.

Letting the draft come to you & being prepared to abandon your original plan at any time is best.

It’s good to have an idea of which players you like & where they go ADP-wise, but I find it’s better to hit the mental refresh button every time I’m on the clock.

Each round, I’ll look at my roster, and I’ll look at each list of players by position. Maybe my plan was to go WR-WR-WR, but there I am in the late 2nd and a RB I’m very high on fell further than expected. Maybe it represents a larger tier break to the next RB than the WR there does to the next group of WRs. I’m at least going to take the time to make that evaluation before blindly sticking to my perfect draft plan.

The fact is there’s no such thing as a perfect draft. Every draft has its own life, and often times ADP goes sideways when you’re playing with seasoned managers. As with @Gally, folks in my league aren’t afraid to reach by a lot to get their guy. That can lead to some wonky ADP, and can also make it so that sleeper you were targeting late gets gobbled up 2 rounds before you expected.

Finally, in the same theme of draft flow, pay attention to the rosters of the managers between you and your next pick. I know a 90 or 120 second clock isn’t the most time, but more often than not it’s worth the time this one takes. Especially close to the turn. If you’re at the 3rd draft position & about to go QB, but teams 1.01 & 1.02 have Allen ~> Mahomes, there’s absolutely no logical reason for you to take a QB in an even round. Take the best non-QB player, then grab your guy on the way back*. Every year I see league mates do this and it’s mystifying to me.

*one year in this exact scenario the dude at 1.02 who already had an elite QB took a 2nd top 5 QB, but I consider that to be rare. People do squirrelly s**t sometimes & I’m not in that league any more.

Good stuff, I'm going to expand on something you touch on here where a guy took 2 Top 5 QBs...
-I think most in here seem very comfy not grabbing a QB until about Rd 7-8 and further but at some point if you have a full league doing this could be hard to pass on certain QBs if they are falling a full round beyond their ADP somebody is gonna pull the trigger and then usually more follow.

On occasion and it's not always QB, I will draft a guy that has fallen too far IMHO and I might already have enough at the position, could be that 3rd RB I didn't expect to be sitting there in Rd 6-7-8 or something and someone elbows me and says "Hey Bud, you can't start but 2 of them, maybe a Flex" and that usually means I grabbed a guy that person was hoping for and so I do take guys on occasion with the intent they might not be on my team very long. I am notorious for going after players before opening Kickoff on Thursday and when I can't do that I will just wait, usually there is a significant injury to a fairly high drafted player by about Week 3? Last year we got Rodgers going down opening night?

Opportunities arise, it's always good to have starters up and down your roster even if you can't use them all, easier to make trades happen with others that always seem to sustain injuries because they always seem to draft high risk players.

Always have to be open to going off script when value appears in the Draft, agreed

 

[habsfan]

The one I see is "great player going to great new situation is going to be great". It happens but it seems more common that players are not just plug and play.

The other one is "high on WRs, down on QB". How is that going to work? Check your math.

 

[Gally]

Here's my personal favorite redraft trap:

Injuries matter. They do ... just not in the way you think. There are a small subset of freak athletes (looking at you, Jordan Reed) whose bodies are just not built to withstand the rigors of the NFL. But other than those edge cases, 95% of injuries are random. I assume that a guy who missed significant time last year with a non-catastrophic injury (Achilles, multiple knee ligaments, etc.) will be no more likely to miss time this year than his healthy counterpart, and guess what? I'm usually right. But I can get him at a discount - sometimes a big one.

If a guy is capable of taking over games and being an elite option at his position, I generally want him on my roster, and let the injury chips fall where they may. Give me alllllll the shares of Jonathan Taylor, Mark Andrews, Cooper Kupp, and so on this season.

The addendum to this is that not all injuries are created equal. You are kind of saying this by highlighting catastrophic injuries but I will say it goes more than just those. Certain types of injuries are more in the Jordan Reed subset and I will weight them more than other kinds of injuries. These tend to be things like concussions, and soft tissue injuries (muscle pulls for example). Sprained ankles, injured shoulders, sports hernia type injuries are of the random variety and can happen to anybody at anytime. I don't over think those. However, hamstring pulls that happen every year to the same guy will cause me to flag them a bit (not a huge amount). Watson is a prime example. He has had hamstring issues every year. That seems to lead to a chronic condition which he has confirmed. He is now saying he knows why it was happening and thinks he found a solution. He might have but in general these types of things do factor in a bit negatively to the ranking for me.

 

[Gally]

so I do take guys on occasion with the intent they might not be on my team very long.

I would definitely caution against drafting a guy with the main/sole intent to trade them later. That never seems to work out as planned. This is more for the "grabbing multiple QB's" guy than getting a 3rd or 4th RB when you can only start 2 or 3 case.

The QB guy takes two top 5 guys with the main intent to trade one of them for profit. Well everyone in the league knows this and typically they won't give in with market value or above market value in trade. Then it becomes a game of chicken where QB guy says, fine I will just let this guy rot on my bench if nobody makes a good offer which totally defeats his main intent by using up 2 top 5 picks on QB's. I have never seen this work.

The RB or WR hoarding is different because you will typically always be able to use that extra guy at some point due to injury or underperforming. Those are more volatile positions so it leads to more than just trade bait on those guys.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Drinking too much.

 

[Soulfly3]

Value is dead.

Been saying it for years, and maybe it has caught on a bit.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Don’t fall into the trap of the “perfect draft” - you’ll read 37 perfect draft articles & every single one of them will be a monumental waste of time.

Having a plan is good.

Knowing your league & the other managers tendencies is better.

Letting the draft come to you & being prepared to abandon your original plan at any time is best.

It’s good to have an idea of which players you like & where they go ADP-wise, but I find it’s better to hit the mental refresh button every time I’m on the clock.

Each round, I’ll look at my roster, and I’ll look at each list of players by position. Maybe my plan was to go WR-WR-WR, but there I am in the late 2nd and a RB I’m very high on fell further than expected. Maybe it represents a larger tier break to the next RB than the WR there does to the next group of WRs. I’m at least going to take the time to make that evaluation before blindly sticking to my perfect draft plan.

The fact is there’s no such thing as a perfect draft. Every draft has its own life, and often times ADP goes sideways when you’re playing with seasoned managers. As with @Gally, folks in my league aren’t afraid to reach by a lot to get their guy. That can lead to some wonky ADP, and can also make it so that sleeper you were targeting late gets gobbled up 2 rounds before you expected.

Finally, in the same theme of draft flow, pay attention to the rosters of the managers between you and your next pick. I know a 90 or 120 second clock isn’t the most time, but more often than not it’s worth the time this one takes. Especially close to the turn. If you’re at the 3rd draft position & about to go QB, but teams 1.01 & 1.02 have Allen ~> Mahomes, there’s absolutely no logical reason for you to take a QB in an even round. Take the best non-QB player, then grab your guy on the way back*. Every year I see league mates do this and it’s mystifying to me.

*one year in this exact scenario the dude at 1.02 who already had an elite QB took a 2nd top 5 QB, but I consider that to be rare. People do squirrelly s**t sometimes & I’m not in that league any more.

Good stuff, I'm going to expand on something you touch on here where a guy took 2 Top 5 QBs...
-I think most in here seem very comfy not grabbing a QB until about Rd 7-8 and further but at some point if you have a full league doing this could be hard to pass on certain QBs if they are falling a full round beyond their ADP somebody is gonna pull the trigger and then usually more follow.

On occasion and it's not always QB, I will draft a guy that has fallen too far IMHO and I might already have enough at the position, could be that 3rd RB I didn't expect to be sitting there in Rd 6-7-8 or something and someone elbows me and says "Hey Bud, you can't start but 2 of them, maybe a Flex" and that usually means I grabbed a guy that person was hoping for and so I do take guys on occasion with the intent they might not be on my team very long. I am notorious for going after players before opening Kickoff on Thursday and when I can't do that I will just wait, usually there is a significant injury to a fairly high drafted player by about Week 3? Last year we got Rodgers going down opening night?

Opportunities arise, it's always good to have starters up and down your roster even if you can't use them all, easier to make trades happen with others that always seem to sustain injuries because they always seem to draft high risk players.

Always have to be open to going off script when value appears in the Draft, agreed

For sure, but taking 2x too 5 QBs inside 5 rounds is generally considered bizarre behavior in a 1 QB format.

Any other position, I agree. Ok, maybe not K, but RB/WR/TE, take as many as your roster limits allow.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Drinking too much.

This one got me last year.

But to be fair (to be faaaaaaaaair) it was because The FBG draft Dominator didn’t correctly identify how my CBS league had edge DE vs LB. Spending a 7th on Micah Parsons makes a lot of sense when he’s a DE. When he’s a LB he’s a 15th round pick. Unfortunately I didn’t catch it until the sticker was on the board.

I’m very much hoping that’s fixed this year, but it does lead back to this topic:

If you play IDP, always check to see what position your host site has a player listed as. Don’t trust draft software unless you’re positive it’s accurate.

 

[Gold Fox]

Drinking too much.

This one got me last year.

But to be fair (to be faaaaaaaaair) it was because The FBG draft Dominator didn’t correctly identify how my CBS league had edge DE vs LB. Spending a 7th on Micah Parsons makes a lot of sense when he’s a DE. When he’s a LB he’s a 15th round pick. Unfortunately I didn’t catch it until the sticker was on the board.

I’m very much hoping that’s fixed this year, but it does lead back to this topic:

If you play IDP, always check to see what position your host site has a player listed as. Don’t trust draft software unless you’re positive it’s accurate.

FBG Draft Dominator needs a beverage consumption modifier.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I would definitely caution against drafting a guy with the main/sole intent to trade them later. That never seems to work out as planned. This is more for the "grabbing multiple QB's" guy than getting a 3rd or 4th RB when you can only start 2 or 3 case.

Exactly.

That dude in my example spent the next 2 months trying to deal that 2nd top QB, but no one wanted to pay what he wanted. He ended up trading the QB he took in the 5th for a RB someone took in the 8th + a mediocre backup QB.

That didn’t work out for him at all. He’d have been much better off taking a better RB that was available to him in the 5th.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

FBG Draft Dominator needs a beverage consumption modifier.

The more I think about this, the better the idea seems.

Just have a little button for “drink tracker”.

After 4 or 5, maybe a little pop up shows up like, “have you considered a nice cold glass of water?”

After 6, the app does double verification - you’ll click your selection and it’ll pop up “Are you sure you want a 4th WR with the same BYE week or is that the bourbon talking, Scott?”

@Joe Bryant - this seems like a winning idea.

 

[JohnnyU]

For those who play redraft and dynasty, I would think putting too much values in rookies is a bad move in redraft. Those who only play redraft are smarter than this. Better value can be had later in drafts than throwing darts at the Leggett’s and Coleman’s of the world.

 

[wlwiles]

For those who play redraft and dynasty, I would think putting too much values in rookies is a bad move in redraft. Those who only play redraft are smarter than this. Better value can be had later in drafts than throwing darts at the Leggett’s and Coleman’s of the world.

I tend to fall in the opposite trap. I scout the rookies for dynasty, but then end up mostly avoiding them for redraft because "they'll need time to acclimate/ramp up/prove themselves/etc." and then I ignore the LaPorta's and Puka's of the redraft world.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

I think I drafted Arian Foster as a rookie and know I drafted Alfred Morris in the 14th round, as a rookie. Rookies didn't used to be this hyped. You could still get some guys will a path to playing time in the late rounds. Now, Nabers is going in the 4-6 range and Marvin Harrison Jr is getting drafted like Marvin Harrison Sr. did back in the day. Very difficult to find "value" from a guy we have propped up and drafted like it is Calvin Johnson.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think I drafted Arian Foster as a rookie and know I drafted Alfred Morris in the 14th round, as a rookie. Rookies didn't used to be this hyped. You could still get some guys will a path to playing time in the late rounds. Now, Nabers is going in the 4-6 range and Marvin Harrison Jr is getting drafted like Marvin Harrison Sr. did back in the day. Very difficult to find "value" from a guy we have propped up and drafted like it is Calvin Johnson.

On a related note, keep track of the rookies you believe will be over drafted, causing more relevant teammates to get overlooked.

Brooks in CAR is a good example. The team has stated they're in no rush to bring him back from his injury, and Chuba took the job from Sanders last season. Right now Brooks is getting well ahead of Chuba.

On Fantasy Football Calculator, Brooks is 92 overall, while Chuba is 119. Of course there's the redraft opportunity to draft both, but I'd rather have Chuba this year.

 

[JohnnyU]

For those who play redraft and dynasty, I would think putting too much values in rookies is a bad move in redraft. Those who only play redraft are smarter than this. Better value can be had later in drafts than throwing darts at the Leggett’s and Coleman’s of the world.

I tend to fall in the opposite trap. I scout the rookies for dynasty, but then end up mostly avoiding them for redraft because "they'll need time to acclimate/ramp up/prove themselves/etc." and then I ignore the LaPorta's and Puka's of the redraft world.

Exceptions are part of the redraft and dynasty game aren't they?

 

[Chaka]

Rule #1 - Just use the Draft Dominator and have a beer. You pay these guys to be forward thinking, and everything else that has been said in this thread already, for you.

Great leaders surround themselves with coaching talent and delegate, Josh McDaniels micromanages everything.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m very much hoping that’s fixed this year,

Update: This has indeed been fixed this year, and all Edge LB are synched correctly with CBS. Yay! More time for drinking!

 

[TheWinz]

Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it. In-person drafts seem to be a thing of the past, but they are truly my favorite few hours of the entire season. Have some beers with the friends, and enjoy it.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@RaidersAreOne

-You were seeking help when you came here middle of the year last season, welcome btw
You are going to want to seek the Travdogg threads in here, he will rank all the players top to bottom for all the positions and then you can just pick'em a part like I do, J/K TD

RAO, have you purchased your FBG subscription? They do a lot of the heavy lifting and you get a pretty good bang for your buck there.
I'm not usually plugging commercials but Joe Bryant over the years has pulled many of his writers and staff from these very boards
I admire what they have built over a long time.

Some of us go all the way back to when this place was called "Cheatsheets" like 25 years ago...yep

 

[BassNBrew]

I find the ADP hate interesting. The best way to consistently win is to draft players after their ADP. This is exactly like gambling. Best way to consistently win is to get Green Bay at -2.5 when everyone else has them at -3.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I find the ADP hate interesting. The best way to consistently win is to draft players after their ADP. This is exactly like gambling. Best way to consistently win is to get Green Bay at -2.5 when everyone else has them at -3.

Certainly that's one way to do it...but just for arguments sake let's say that 3-4 guys you feel genuinely strong about are going in about the 7th-8th round and you are in the 4th-5th and there really isn't a difference maker you can find for the next 20 picks...why would you wait until the 8th and only take 1 guy you know is going to finish Top 10 at their position, you'd be a fool

I'm just trying to flip the script/table and get folks to start thinking outside the box
I understand what you are saying but some of these guys in the middle rounds and later should be drafted higher

Marvin Harrison Jr on the 1/2 turn or somewhere in the 2nd, Top 10 overall


But the website told me I should take this guy because all these other sheep/herd took him high
Has anyone ever tried to completely shut out what any outside forces are telling you be it social media, websites, granny cooking pasta...you might be surprised what you come up with when you keep little note cards on all the players with your personal thoughts and not some guy writing a rogue article for Southwest Sports Alliance

BTW: Micahel Wilson 6-2/220 38/565/3 TDs as a ROOKE
He will be starting outside from Harrison
Garbage time stats and being wide open because Harrison is WR9-10 in FF...see that's my wacky mind at work

"MoP, you're taking my card away, that's my guy."
-There's lots of them in the deck...wait a minute there's lots of them?
"Queen, Queen, Queen"

WR10 vs WR73...who is the better value?

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

www.youtube.com

"I know you planned it, I'm gonna set it straight"

-I'm telling ya'll it's SABOTAGE!

TY BnB, none of these is pointed at you, talking to the larger community but I appreciate you posting this, got me excited to write

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I find the ADP hate interesting. The best way to consistently win is to draft players after their ADP. This is exactly like gambling. Best way to consistently win is to get Green Bay at -2.5 when everyone else has them at -3.

With exceptions of course. There’s good ADP fallers and bad ADP fallers.

Player with know hammy issues tweaks hammy in practice. Drops 2 rounds by your draft day. Bad faller.

Player on the bird at a need position 11 picks past ADP? Good faller.

I love ADP, but there are limits to how much faith I put into the groupthink. I’m not going to take a player just because he’s a good value. I need to feel good about that player.

A day before each of my drafts I tend to go over ADP lists and highlight who I believe the value picks are for the respective format.

ADP’s a tool like any other in that there are a number of ways to use it.

 

[Gally]

The best way to consistently win is to draft players after their ADP.

I wholeheartedly disagree with this statement. The best way to win are taking players that perform and don't get injured.

ADP is a tool to gage the publics thoughts on players. Whether you get players above or below ADP is really irrelevant. Getting players that perform is what matters. Using ADP to know when you have to "reach" for your flag plants is more important to me than always getting someone later than their ADP.

 

[Scoresman]

I don't think most here fall into any real traps. Here's a trap I still see in all of my live drafts.

People using magazines printed in May to draft their teams.

 

[FarFromHome]

I find the ADP hate interesting. The best way to consistently win is to draft players after their ADP. This is exactly like gambling. Best way to consistently win is to get Green Bay at -2.5 when everyone else has them at -3.

With exceptions of course. There’s good ADP fallers and bad ADP fallers.

Player with know hammy issues tweaks hammy in practice. Drops 2 rounds by your draft day. Bad faller.

Player on the bird at a need position 11 picks past ADP? Good faller.

I love ADP, but there are limits to how much faith I put into the groupthink. I’m not going to take a player just because he’s a good value. I need to feel good about that player.

A day before each of my drafts I tend to go over ADP lists and highlight who I believe the value picks are for the respective format.

ADP’s a tool like any other in that there are a number of ways to use it.

I started playing before ADP was really available. Or internet. Then I remember when myfantasyleague.com came into my life and had versions of ADP data available. Fantasyfootballcalculator.com changed everything for me. I became adp dependent for YEARS. Would make my rankings based on where other drafted them to get that value Then 5 years ago I stopped. I just decided who cares where other people draft players. It's my team. For discussions its still nice but I rarely factor ADP in when drafting. I take my guys. I can tell u I know guys in my long term leagues that live by it and definitely try to use it to make trades. Don't really have a point to this post really. Just interesting topic for me.

 

[Gally]

I just decided who cares where other people draft players. It's my team.

This is really the crux of it for me. It is no fun just drafting off someone else's rankings. It's so much better trusting yourself and getting it right. And if I get it wrong I can live with it.

 

[FarFromHome]

I just decided who cares where other people draft players. It's my team.

This is really the crux of it for me. It is no fun just drafting off someone else's rankings. It's so much better trusting yourself and getting it right. And if I get it wrong I can live with it.

Yep. Furthermore, I got tired of not drafting the guy I really wanted in round 3 because his ADP was round 4. For a long period in my life getting bad ADP value was as bad as one of my kids getting arrested. Today, Id rather have my guy.

 

[Scoresman]

I find the ADP hate interesting. The best way to consistently win is to draft players after their ADP. This is exactly like gambling. Best way to consistently win is to get Green Bay at -2.5 when everyone else has them at -3.

With exceptions of course. There’s good ADP fallers and bad ADP fallers.

Player with know hammy issues tweaks hammy in practice. Drops 2 rounds by your draft day. Bad faller.

Player on the bird at a need position 11 picks past ADP? Good faller.

I love ADP, but there are limits to how much faith I put into the groupthink. I’m not going to take a player just because he’s a good value. I need to feel good about that player.

A day before each of my drafts I tend to go over ADP lists and highlight who I believe the value picks are for the respective format.

ADP’s a tool like any other in that there are a number of ways to use it.

I started playing before ADP was really available. Or internet. Then I remember when myfantasyleague.com came into my life and had versions of ADP data available. Fantasyfootballcalculator.com changed everything for me. I became adp dependent for YEARS. Would make my rankings based on where other drafted them to get that value Then 5 years ago I stopped. I just decided who cares where other people draft players. It's my team. For discussions its still nice but I rarely factor ADP in when drafting. I take my guys. I can tell u I know guys in my long term leagues that live by it and definitely try to use it to make trades. Don't really have a point to this post really. Just interesting topic for me.

How has your success been since doing this? Not being argumentative. Just curious. I'm starting to do the same, and the teams I end up mocking look a lot better than when I'm marrying myself to ADP.

 

[JohnnyU]

I find the ADP hate interesting. The best way to consistently win is to draft players after their ADP. This is exactly like gambling. Best way to consistently win is to get Green Bay at -2.5 when everyone else has them at -3.

With exceptions of course. There’s good ADP fallers and bad ADP fallers.

Player with know hammy issues tweaks hammy in practice. Drops 2 rounds by your draft day. Bad faller.

Player on the bird at a need position 11 picks past ADP? Good faller.

I love ADP, but there are limits to how much faith I put into the groupthink. I’m not going to take a player just because he’s a good value. I need to feel good about that player.

A day before each of my drafts I tend to go over ADP lists and highlight who I believe the value picks are for the respective format.

ADP’s a tool like any other in that there are a number of ways to use it.

I started playing before ADP was really available. Or internet. Then I remember when myfantasyleague.com came into my life and had versions of ADP data available. Fantasyfootballcalculator.com changed everything for me. I became adp dependent for YEARS. Would make my rankings based on where other drafted them to get that value Then 5 years ago I stopped. I just decided who cares where other people draft players. It's my team. For discussions its still nice but I rarely factor ADP in when drafting. I take my guys. I can tell u I know guys in my long term leagues that live by it and definitely try to use it to make trades. Don't really have a point to this post really. Just interesting topic for me.

How has your success been since doing this? Not being argumentative. Just curious. I'm starting to do the same, and the teams I end up mocking look a lot better than when I'm marrying myself to ADP.

I’ve been saying a long time not to follow the herd with ADP. I never use ADP when drafting or trading. If someone doesn’t want to trade because of ADP of the deal doesn’t line up with their thinking process, that’s OK too.

 

[FarFromHome]

I find the ADP hate interesting. The best way to consistently win is to draft players after their ADP. This is exactly like gambling. Best way to consistently win is to get Green Bay at -2.5 when everyone else has them at -3.

With exceptions of course. There’s good ADP fallers and bad ADP fallers.

Player with know hammy issues tweaks hammy in practice. Drops 2 rounds by your draft day. Bad faller.

Player on the bird at a need position 11 picks past ADP? Good faller.

I love ADP, but there are limits to how much faith I put into the groupthink. I’m not going to take a player just because he’s a good value. I need to feel good about that player.

A day before each of my drafts I tend to go over ADP lists and highlight who I believe the value picks are for the respective format.

ADP’s a tool like any other in that there are a number of ways to use it.

I started playing before ADP was really available. Or internet. Then I remember when myfantasyleague.com came into my life and had versions of ADP data available. Fantasyfootballcalculator.com changed everything for me. I became adp dependent for YEARS. Would make my rankings based on where other drafted them to get that value Then 5 years ago I stopped. I just decided who cares where other people draft players. It's my team. For discussions its still nice but I rarely factor ADP in when drafting. I take my guys. I can tell u I know guys in my long term leagues that live by it and definitely try to use it to make trades. Don't really have a point to this post really. Just interesting topic for me.

How has your success been since doing this? Not being argumentative. Just curious. I'm starting to do the same, and the teams I end up mocking look a lot better than when I'm marrying myself to ADP.

My Yahoo rating is Diamond. Ha ha. I think like most regular members on this site, I've been pretty successful. I think for me, my biggest strength is listening to good arguments around me and making adjustments. Which takes us back to the question of this thread about traps. A massive trap is not changing how you value players. At least weekly. Hell, daily. I think I've had Josh Jacobs as high as 5 and as low as 30 for me already on my RB rankings. Ha ha

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I just decided who cares where other people draft players. It's my team.

This is really the crux of it for me. It is no fun just drafting off someone else's rankings. It's so much better trusting yourself and getting it right. And if I get it wrong I can live with it.

Yep. Furthermore, I got tired of not drafting the guy I really wanted in round 3 because his ADP was round 4. For a long period in my life getting bad ADP value was as bad as one of my kids getting arrested. Today, Id rather have my guy.

And this is exactly what I'm talking about...when I see guys slowing down in the 3rd round and they are only looking at 2-3 guys...I'm starting to look ahead because now they are locked in to players ADP and which 3 guys they can choose from, I start ripping to the 4th and 5th, also this kind of drafting makes others nervous and suddenly the guy they want int he 7th or 8th gets snagged in the 4th and they turn and say "Well, i don't want MoP getting my guys, he's not following the script" and you know what that does...it pushes value down to you because now guys are truly reaching

I'm not saying this would always work with Sharks in here, but most of our live local long time redraft leagues, you guys are likely the top of the heap in most of those
Those folks don't pile in here

 

[Gally]

Yep. Furthermore, I got tired of not drafting the guy I really wanted in round 3 because his ADP was round 4.

I have never really understood this mentality. I have never had the mindset that I must follow ADP. It is info for a general range a player will last but that is just to known when a guy I really want should he reached for. I don't think I have ever had the mindset of not drafting a guy in the round because his ADP was a different round. That just seems odd to me.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Another one I thought about today was the opposite of “getting my guys”. Leaving the guys who aren’t “your guy”, ADP be damned.

Last year I had a couple situations mid-draft where a player fell, and it was a player I’d never rostered, because I didn’t like that player and had never been high on them. But time and again that dude proved me wrong, so I picked that player - and of course they had their worst year ever.

Maybe that’s just a “murphy’s law” sorta thing, but this year I’m listening to my gut on those calls. If he ain’t my guy, he ain’t my guy.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Not sure that anyone thinks you should blindly follow adp or that it is the only way to get value. But it can help you organize your board and decide when and where you want to pick your spots. If I like someone as more of a sleeper with high upside and his adp is 120, I would rather wait until closer to there if I can and use earlier picks on some other types of guys that I want to fill out my roster.

 

[FarFromHome]

Yep. Furthermore, I got tired of not drafting the guy I really wanted in round 3 because his ADP was round 4.

I have never really understood this mentality. I have never had the mindset that I must follow ADP. It is info for a general range a player will last but that is just to known when a guy I really want should he reached for. I don't think I have ever had the mindset of not drafting a guy in the round because his ADP was a different round. That just seems odd to me.

I can only speak to me. I had been playing for years before ADP info was ever really a thing. Then when it really became accessible, don't quote me but around 1995?, it seemed so shiny and new and it just felt logical to me.