Some of the biggest traps most fall victim to in Redraft (1 Viewer)

[jumper]

I'll have to re-read it because it's been awhile. I think what it means is that if you took all the finishes of the QB1 over the ten years that they would be higher than the QB2 which would be higher than the QB3, etc. Over any specific year it will fluctuate.

If this is the case then ADP is irrelevant to those tables because they are based on after the fact numbers.

That was my point from the beginning. ADP would matter more if people drafted perfectly but that doesn't happen.

ADP 1- 4, 8, 1, 4, 10 = 5.4
ADP 2 - 1, 15, 4, 3, 9 = 6.4
ADP 3 - 7, 20, 1, 8, 3 = 7.8

3 ADP positions and their actual finishing position over 5 years. In any given year the end result looks random, over time it reflects the ADP. The early the masses draft a player the more likely the outcome will be better. If you draft to maximize ADP value, over time your results will be better than the average.

Going back to an actual example from today. 72 teams in this league so there are 6 copies of every player. One guy took Breece at 1.1. The other two copies available today went at #3 and #6. The guy who took Breece at 1 spotted the guy at 6 302 draft points. How much value is that? 1.1 and 4.7 = 1.6 and 2.12. He has basically spotted anyone getting Hall at 1.6 or later a 2.12 for a 4.7. So now not only does his flag plant on Hall have to be right, he has to find an early 3rd round talent with his 4.12 pick just to be on par.

I think you're completely wrong to look at it this way. I think you're overstating the difference if you picked Breece Hall at 1.01 when his ADP was 1.06. If it's redraft, you both got Hall with your 1st round pick so there's no "draft value" gained or lost. You're not "spotting" the guy who took Hall at 1.6 ANY draft value. Plus I've not yet been in a redraft league where you can trade picks, so "trade down and accumulate draft capital" is moot.

If you're in a different league structure that does allow trading picks, then you both have to (A) find a trade partner and (B) actually get Hall with the pick you traded down into - you aren't guaranteed to get Hall in the trade down scenario. If you don't, then you're comparing "value of Hall at 1.01" vs. "value of whoever you got (who wasn't Hall) at the tradedown spot + who you get with the extra draft picks for making the trade."

 

[BassNBrew]

I'll have to re-read it because it's been awhile. I think what it means is that if you took all the finishes of the QB1 over the ten years that they would be higher than the QB2 which would be higher than the QB3, etc. Over any specific year it will fluctuate.

If this is the case then ADP is irrelevant to those tables because they are based on after the fact numbers.

That was my point from the beginning. ADP would matter more if people drafted perfectly but that doesn't happen.

ADP 1- 4, 8, 1, 4, 10 = 5.4
ADP 2 - 1, 15, 4, 3, 9 = 6.4
ADP 3 - 7, 20, 1, 8, 3 = 7.8

3 ADP positions and their actual finishing position over 5 years. In any given year the end result looks random, over time it reflects the ADP. The early the masses draft a player the more likely the outcome will be better. If you draft to maximize ADP value, over time your results will be better than the average.

Going back to an actual example from today. 72 teams in this league so there are 6 copies of every player. One guy took Breece at 1.1. The other two copies available today went at #3 and #6. The guy who took Breece at 1 spotted the guy at 6 302 draft points. How much value is that? 1.1 and 4.7 = 1.6 and 2.12. He has basically spotted anyone getting Hall at 1.6 or later a 2.12 for a 4.7. So now not only does his flag plant on Hall have to be right, he has to find an early 3rd round talent with his 4.12 pick just to be on par.

I think you're completely wrong to look at it this way. I think you're overstating the difference if you picked Breece Hall at 1.01 when his ADP was 1.06. If it's redraft, you both got Hall with your 1st round pick so there's no "draft value" gained or lost. You're not "spotting" the guy who took Hall at 1.6 ANY draft value. Plus I've not yet been in a redraft league where you can trade picks, so "trade down and accumulate draft capital" is moot.

If you're in a different league structure that does allow trading picks, then you both have to (A) find a trade partner and (B) actually get Hall with the pick you traded down into - you aren't guaranteed to get Hall in the trade down scenario. If you don't, then you're comparing "value of Hall at 1.01" vs. "value of whoever you got (who wasn't Hall) at the tradedown spot + who you get with the extra draft picks for making the trade."

Most of my small leagues allow trading draft picks. But let’s focus on the large leagues where there are hundreds of Breece owners. Every one of those owners getting Hall at 1.6 have access to better talent at 2.7 than the Hall owner with a 2.12 pick. Now you not only have to be right on Hall to beat the non Hall owners, you have to do better at your 2.12 than all the guys at 2.7. Studies say your odds are slim.

Note that in the types of contests above this more so applies to middle rounds when in theory you should have multiple options to chose from. The most successful owners will have several plant your flag guys and be able to pivot to the ones that are price appropriately

 

[jumper]

I'll have to re-read it because it's been awhile. I think what it means is that if you took all the finishes of the QB1 over the ten years that they would be higher than the QB2 which would be higher than the QB3, etc. Over any specific year it will fluctuate.

If this is the case then ADP is irrelevant to those tables because they are based on after the fact numbers.

That was my point from the beginning. ADP would matter more if people drafted perfectly but that doesn't happen.

ADP 1- 4, 8, 1, 4, 10 = 5.4
ADP 2 - 1, 15, 4, 3, 9 = 6.4
ADP 3 - 7, 20, 1, 8, 3 = 7.8

3 ADP positions and their actual finishing position over 5 years. In any given year the end result looks random, over time it reflects the ADP. The early the masses draft a player the more likely the outcome will be better. If you draft to maximize ADP value, over time your results will be better than the average.

Going back to an actual example from today. 72 teams in this league so there are 6 copies of every player. One guy took Breece at 1.1. The other two copies available today went at #3 and #6. The guy who took Breece at 1 spotted the guy at 6 302 draft points. How much value is that? 1.1 and 4.7 = 1.6 and 2.12. He has basically spotted anyone getting Hall at 1.6 or later a 2.12 for a 4.7. So now not only does his flag plant on Hall have to be right, he has to find an early 3rd round talent with his 4.12 pick just to be on par.

I think you're completely wrong to look at it this way. I think you're overstating the difference if you picked Breece Hall at 1.01 when his ADP was 1.06. If it's redraft, you both got Hall with your 1st round pick so there's no "draft value" gained or lost. You're not "spotting" the guy who took Hall at 1.6 ANY draft value. Plus I've not yet been in a redraft league where you can trade picks, so "trade down and accumulate draft capital" is moot.

If you're in a different league structure that does allow trading picks, then you both have to (A) find a trade partner and (B) actually get Hall with the pick you traded down into - you aren't guaranteed to get Hall in the trade down scenario. If you don't, then you're comparing "value of Hall at 1.01" vs. "value of whoever you got (who wasn't Hall) at the tradedown spot + who you get with the extra draft picks for making the trade."

Most of my small leagues allow trading draft picks. But let’s focus on the large leagues where there are hundreds of Breece owners. Every one of those owners getting Hall at 1.6 have access to better talent at 2.7 than the Hall owner with a 2.12 pick. Now you not only have to be right on Hall to beat the non Hall owners, you have to do better at your 2.12 than all the guys at 2.7. Studies say your odds are slim.

Note that in the types of contests above this more so applies to middle rounds when in theory you should have multiple options to chose from. The most successful owners will have several plant your flag guys and be able to pivot to the ones that are price appropriately

Let's presume you get randomly assigned your draft slot or otherwise can't trade it. If you think Hall is the #1 best pick in fantasy football, why would you not pick him with the 1.01 draft slot?

The entire premise of this thought experiment is "I think Hall is the best possible pick in the draft." If I have the 1.01 draft pick, why would I not pick him at 1.01 just because his ADP is 1.06? If instead I pick someone else other than Hall whose ADP is higher, then I'm getting lower expected points from that player.

"I think the player whose ADP is 1.06 will score 50 more fantasy points in 2024 than the player whose ADP is 1.01, so I should pick the 1.01 ADP player and score 50 less points this season so my opponents don't gain "draft value"?

I don't know about you but I don't get extra points in my league for "I drafted this player for less than his expected ADP cost." I get points for the actual yards gained, touchdowns scored, and other stuff. There's no scoring category for "this guy had a 3rd round ADP, but I drafted him in the 7th round" that gives me fantasy points.

 

[TripItUp]

Twitter Hype

 

[JohnnyU]

I think a trap a lot of people fall into is not understanding what Average means when considering Average Draft Position. Knowing the range is probably more important than knowing the Average.

.....or worrying about either. I don't think that is as important as some want to think it is.

Totally depends on what type of league you are playing in.

How does what kind of league you're in matter if you choose not to pay attention to ADP?

If it's part of a larger contest like the FBG league, if you take Marvin Harrison in the mid first (because you project him at WR2 overall) rather than mid second, you basically traded your first round pick for a second round pick to every other Harrison owner. Trading your first round pick for a second isn't a winning strategy.

If you are in a league of skilled owners, even if you're 3% better at talent evaluation then the rest, if you're giving up that advantage burning up draft capital.

If you are in a league with your kids and their girlfriends, then you can afford to plant your flags whenever you want because your talent evaluation skills will overcome burning up draft capital and ADP won't mean much anyway.

I don't give a hill of beans about ADP. I choose players because of my knowledge of them and how I perceive them mentally. If that is ranking mentally, so be it.

People are entitled to play however they want. You might enjoy shooting 2pt jumpers or be the best 2pt shooter in the hood, but you are leaving points on the table by not stepping back to the 3pt range.

You funny guy.

 

[Gally]

Every one of those owners getting Hall at 1.6 have access to better talent at 2.7 than the Hall owner with a 2.12 pick.

This isn't true in reality. Those other Hall owners are in a completely different draft and likely have a completely different talent pool to choose from because the drafts are different and that pool may or may not be "better". Plus nobody knows who is better at that point so it's a random assessment.

I would also say that the talent difference between 2.07 and 2.12 is negligible and part of a range that is likely equivalent. While theoretically there could be an incremental improvement the reality of it is there isn't any difference in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Ray_T]

Every one of those owners getting Hall at 1.6 have access to better talent at 2.7 than the Hall owner with a 2.12 pick.

This isn't true in reality. Those other Hall owners are in a completely different draft and likely have a completely different talent pool to choose from because the drafts are different and that pool may or may not be "better". Plus nobody knows who is better at that point so it's a random assessment.

I would also say that the talent difference between 2.07 and 2.12 is negligible and part of a range that is likely equivalent. While theoretically there could be an incremental improvement the reality of it is there isn't any difference in the grand scheme of things.

I was in a draft where someone took Hall at #1. kind of surprised a few people but any top 5 pick should go #1 at least sometimes. and most people consider him to be top 5

 

[BassNBrew]

Every one of those owners getting Hall at 1.6 have access to better talent at 2.7 than the Hall owner with a 2.12 pick.

This isn't true in reality. Those other Hall owners are in a completely different draft and likely have a completely different talent pool to choose from because the drafts are different and that pool may or may not be "better". Plus nobody knows who is better at that point so it's a random assessment.

I would also say that the talent difference between 2.07 and 2.12 is negligible and part of a range that is likely equivalent. While theoretically there could be an incremental improvement the reality of it is there isn't any difference in the grand scheme of things.

Totally disagree. Don't have the time to flesh it out.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'll have to re-read it because it's been awhile. I think what it means is that if you took all the finishes of the QB1 over the ten years that they would be higher than the QB2 which would be higher than the QB3, etc. Over any specific year it will fluctuate.

If this is the case then ADP is irrelevant to those tables because they are based on after the fact numbers.

That was my point from the beginning. ADP would matter more if people drafted perfectly but that doesn't happen.

ADP 1- 4, 8, 1, 4, 10 = 5.4
ADP 2 - 1, 15, 4, 3, 9 = 6.4
ADP 3 - 7, 20, 1, 8, 3 = 7.8

3 ADP positions and their actual finishing position over 5 years. In any given year the end result looks random, over time it reflects the ADP. The early the masses draft a player the more likely the outcome will be better. If you draft to maximize ADP value, over time your results will be better than the average.

Going back to an actual example from today. 72 teams in this league so there are 6 copies of every player. One guy took Breece at 1.1. The other two copies available today went at #3 and #6. The guy who took Breece at 1 spotted the guy at 6 302 draft points. How much value is that? 1.1 and 4.7 = 1.6 and 2.12. He has basically spotted anyone getting Hall at 1.6 or later a 2.12 for a 4.7. So now not only does his flag plant on Hall have to be right, he has to find an early 3rd round talent with his 4.12 pick just to be on par.

I think you're completely wrong to look at it this way. I think you're overstating the difference if you picked Breece Hall at 1.01 when his ADP was 1.06. If it's redraft, you both got Hall with your 1st round pick so there's no "draft value" gained or lost. You're not "spotting" the guy who took Hall at 1.6 ANY draft value. Plus I've not yet been in a redraft league where you can trade picks, so "trade down and accumulate draft capital" is moot.

If you're in a different league structure that does allow trading picks, then you both have to (A) find a trade partner and (B) actually get Hall with the pick you traded down into - you aren't guaranteed to get Hall in the trade down scenario. If you don't, then you're comparing "value of Hall at 1.01" vs. "value of whoever you got (who wasn't Hall) at the tradedown spot + who you get with the extra draft picks for making the trade."

Most of my small leagues allow trading draft picks. But let’s focus on the large leagues where there are hundreds of Breece owners. Every one of those owners getting Hall at 1.6 have access to better talent at 2.7 than the Hall owner with a 2.12 pick. Now you not only have to be right on Hall to beat the non Hall owners, you have to do better at your 2.12 than all the guys at 2.7. Studies say your odds are slim.

Note that in the types of contests above this more so applies to middle rounds when in theory you should have multiple options to chose from. The most successful owners will have several plant your flag guys and be able to pivot to the ones that are price appropriately

Let's presume you get randomly assigned your draft slot or otherwise can't trade it. If you think Hall is the #1 best pick in fantasy football, why would you not pick him with the 1.01 draft slot?

The entire premise of this thought experiment is "I think Hall is the best possible pick in the draft." If I have the 1.01 draft pick, why would I not pick him at 1.01 just because his ADP is 1.06? If instead I pick someone else other than Hall whose ADP is higher, then I'm getting lower expected points from that player.

"I think the player whose ADP is 1.06 will score 50 more fantasy points in 2024 than the player whose ADP is 1.01, so I should pick the 1.01 ADP player and score 50 less points this season so my opponents don't gain "draft value"?

I don't know about you but I don't get extra points in my league for "I drafted this player for less than his expected ADP cost." I get points for the actual yards gained, touchdowns scored, and other stuff. There's no scoring category for "this guy had a 3rd round ADP, but I drafted him in the 7th round" that gives me fantasy points.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'll have to re-read it because it's been awhile. I think what it means is that if you took all the finishes of the QB1 over the ten years that they would be higher than the QB2 which would be higher than the QB3, etc. Over any specific year it will fluctuate.

If this is the case then ADP is irrelevant to those tables because they are based on after the fact numbers.

That was my point from the beginning. ADP would matter more if people drafted perfectly but that doesn't happen.

ADP 1- 4, 8, 1, 4, 10 = 5.4
ADP 2 - 1, 15, 4, 3, 9 = 6.4
ADP 3 - 7, 20, 1, 8, 3 = 7.8

3 ADP positions and their actual finishing position over 5 years. In any given year the end result looks random, over time it reflects the ADP. The early the masses draft a player the more likely the outcome will be better. If you draft to maximize ADP value, over time your results will be better than the average.

Going back to an actual example from today. 72 teams in this league so there are 6 copies of every player. One guy took Breece at 1.1. The other two copies available today went at #3 and #6. The guy who took Breece at 1 spotted the guy at 6 302 draft points. How much value is that? 1.1 and 4.7 = 1.6 and 2.12. He has basically spotted anyone getting Hall at 1.6 or later a 2.12 for a 4.7. So now not only does his flag plant on Hall have to be right, he has to find an early 3rd round talent with his 4.12 pick just to be on par.

I think you're completely wrong to look at it this way. I think you're overstating the difference if you picked Breece Hall at 1.01 when his ADP was 1.06. If it's redraft, you both got Hall with your 1st round pick so there's no "draft value" gained or lost. You're not "spotting" the guy who took Hall at 1.6 ANY draft value. Plus I've not yet been in a redraft league where you can trade picks, so "trade down and accumulate draft capital" is moot.

If you're in a different league structure that does allow trading picks, then you both have to (A) find a trade partner and (B) actually get Hall with the pick you traded down into - you aren't guaranteed to get Hall in the trade down scenario. If you don't, then you're comparing "value of Hall at 1.01" vs. "value of whoever you got (who wasn't Hall) at the tradedown spot + who you get with the extra draft picks for making the trade."

Most of my small leagues allow trading draft picks. But let’s focus on the large leagues where there are hundreds of Breece owners. Every one of those owners getting Hall at 1.6 have access to better talent at 2.7 than the Hall owner with a 2.12 pick. Now you not only have to be right on Hall to beat the non Hall owners, you have to do better at your 2.12 than all the guys at 2.7. Studies say your odds are slim.

Note that in the types of contests above this more so applies to middle rounds when in theory you should have multiple options to chose from. The most successful owners will have several plant your flag guys and be able to pivot to the ones that are price appropriately

Let's presume you get randomly assigned your draft slot or otherwise can't trade it. If you think Hall is the #1 best pick in fantasy football, why would you not pick him with the 1.01 draft slot?

The entire premise of this thought experiment is "I think Hall is the best possible pick in the draft." If I have the 1.01 draft pick, why would I not pick him at 1.01 just because his ADP is 1.06? If instead I pick someone else other than Hall whose ADP is higher, then I'm getting lower expected points from that player.

"I think the player whose ADP is 1.06 will score 50 more fantasy points in 2024 than the player whose ADP is 1.01, so I should pick the 1.01 ADP player and score 50 less points this season so my opponents don't gain "draft value"?

I don't know about you but I don't get extra points in my league for "I drafted this player for less than his expected ADP cost." I get points for the actual yards gained, touchdowns scored, and other stuff. There's no scoring category for "this guy had a 3rd round ADP, but I drafted him in the 7th round" that gives me fantasy points.

You are correct that you would take Hall. That said, history says that you thinking that in the first place is most likely wrong. You need to be very judicious with your flag plants. If you are good enough that your flag plants are correct a lot of the time, then you should quit your day job and play FF for a living.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have another thread that correlates with this one and might help answer some questions

The BIG One

I have the first 90 picks according to ADP at many places. -I break them down for both 10 and 12-team leagues so you can see how difficult it is in larger leagues trying to get the edge on other GMs. I feel like I should have worked even longer on this and it does need more commentary, perhaps...

forums.footballguys.com

Cheers!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I have another one for this topic:
Ya know how if you’re around a smell long enough, you can go “nose blind”? Where everyone else smells it, but you don’t because you’re around it a lot? I had friends who lived in Turlock, there were massive chicken farms.

In the heat of the summer, the town smelled something fierce. I went out to play poker with my friends and their friends and I asked, “how do you deal with this smell all summer” and they, to a man, said “after a while ya just don’t notice it any more.”

This is also applicable to drafting. Whether it’s a mock draft or a real one, it’s human nature to look for your targets in certain ranges of the draft, but ignore others. Through mocking, or tiering players up, it’s a natural tendency to (for example) be in the 2nd round, and look for the players you expect to be there.

And that might cause you to miss a player that shouldn't be there.

Like the NFFC draft I did on Wednesday. One of the “lessons learned” for me from last year was from going back to the draft board and asking myself why I picked X player when Y player was still on the board? And time and again it was because I was looking for a player at a position I expected to be there instead of taking a tick to sort through the positions to see if there was someone unexpected.

It seems like a very obvious thing to do, and honestly I felt a little simple-minded to have overlooked it.

Back in the day I drafted with paper. I’d spend days creating my binder with color-coded tabs by position, and would cross off names each pick. Then at my turn I’d check every position page in my binder. So this isn’t a new practice for me, rather one that technology sort of defeated. Using software to draft, and software to track picks, it’s easier to forget this simple round by round exercise.

In this example I was fully planning on going WR1 ~> WR2, for weeks. I mocked that way heavily. And just before the draft I looked down at my notepad, where I’d written “check every position”.

After round 1 I did just that, and Gibbs was sitting there at 2.06, long past where he should have been.

I strikes me that the 5 teams picking before me in the 2nd may have had a preconceived target, and simply not looked at RB. It was 2 RB (Barkley/Henry) 2 WR and a TE.

So yeah - not sure what you’d call that. Confirmation bias? Probably that.

So my simple trick to winning your draft is be open minded and diligent. Check every position every round and be willing to change from your predetermined plan. Getting your targets is great. But getting your target who fell 1/2 a round late is even better.


Insomniac, out.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I have another one for this topic:
Ya know how if you’re around a smell long enough, you can go “nose blind”? Where everyone else smells it, but you don’t because you’re around it a lot? I had friends who lived in Turlock, there were massive chicken farms.

In the heat of the summer, the town smelled something fierce. I went out to play poker with my friends and their friends and I asked, “how do you deal with this smell all summer” and they, to a man, said “after a while ya just don’t notice it any more.”

This is also applicable to drafting. Whether it’s a mock draft or a real one, it’s human nature to look for your targets in certain ranges of the draft, but ignore others. Through mocking, or tiering players up, it’s a natural tendency to (for example) be in the 2nd round, and look for the players you expect to be there.

And that might cause you to miss a player that shouldn't be there.

Like the NFFC draft I did on Wednesday. One of the “lessons learned” for me from last year was from going back to the draft board and asking myself why I picked X player when Y player was still on the board? And time and again it was because I was looking for a player at a position I expected to be there instead of taking a tick to sort through the positions to see if there was someone unexpected.

It seems like a very obvious thing to do, and honestly I felt a little simple-minded to have overlooked it.

Back in the day I drafted with paper. I’d spend days creating my binder with color-coded tabs by position, and would cross off names each pick. Then at my turn I’d check every position page in my binder. So this isn’t a new practice for me, rather one that technology sort of defeated. Using software to draft, and software to track picks, it’s easier to forget this simple round by round exercise.

In this example I was fully planning on going WR1 ~> WR2, for weeks. I mocked that way heavily. And just before the draft I looked down at my notepad, where I’d written “check every position”.

After round 1 I did just that, and Gibbs was sitting there, long past where he should have been.

I strikes me that the 5 teams picking before me in the 2nd may have had a preconceived target, and simply not looked at RB. It was 4 WR and a TE.

So yeah - not sure what you’d call that. Confirmation bias? Probably that.

So my simple trick to winning your draft is be open minded and diligent. Check every position every round and be willing to change from your predetermined plan. Getting your targets is great. But getting your target who fell 1/2 a round late is even better.


Insomniac, out.

I still use paper -- but I don't do NFFC or anything like that which has a site portal to draft/auction from. I have a redraft that's in person and an auction league where we bid in a Microsoft Teams chat window. And I look at my papers for every position as often as possible. I don't think that would work as well with a site portal.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I still use paper -- but I don't do NFFC or anything like that which has a site portal to draft/auction from. I have a redraft that's in person and an auction league where we bid in a Microsoft Teams chat window. And I look at my papers for every position as often as possible. I don't think that would work as well with a site portal.

I draft my home league 7 days from today. People from 4 states & 11 counties coming to town.

Stickers on a board. Pony keg. Gonna be fun.

I’ll be using draft software. I retired the old pen & binder years ago. I’m never going back.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Drinking too much.

This one got me last year.

But to be fair (to be faaaaaaaaair) it was because The FBG draft Dominator didn’t correctly identify how my CBS league had edge DE vs LB. Spending a 7th on Micah Parsons makes a lot of sense when he’s a DE. When he’s a LB he’s a 15th round pick. Unfortunately I didn’t catch it until the sticker was on the board.

I’m very much hoping that’s fixed this year, but it does lead back to this topic:

If you play IDP, always check to see what position your host site has a player listed as. Don’t trust draft software unless you’re positive it’s accurate.

When MFL shuffled their DL/LB slots last year, I was suddenly the proud owner of 8 DL. still took will anderson

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

When MFL shuffled their DL/LB slots last year, I was suddenly the proud owner of 8 DL. still took will anderson

Yeah, I had 2 LB turn into DL in one 16-team league in that cluster. That sucked. Had to mad scramble to deal for LB or I wouldn’t have been able to field a lineup.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

When MFL shuffled their DL/LB slots last year, I was suddenly the proud owner of 8 DL. still took will anderson

Yeah, I had 2 LB turn into DL in one 16-team league in that cluster. That sucked. Had to mad scramble to deal for LB or I wouldn’t have been able to field a lineup.

Same. Anzolone was a nice pick up.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

One more for this topic, and it’s one I learned 20 years ago, and still marvel that people don’t do in every level of draft from my home league to high stakes.

When you’re sitting at 2-3-4-5-6 position, or 7-8-9-10-11 position, and headed for the turn, look at the needs of the teams ahead of you.

Not in the 1st or 2nd or even 3rd round. Those are BPA, follow your plan, etc.

But as you get deeper into the draft - for example, if it’s not TE-P
if you’re planning on taking a good TE…
and you’re drafting in the 5th position
& teams 1, 2, & 4 all took elite TE early
and it’s coming back towards 1 in the 4th round (or 5th with 3RR)
And there are 3 TE you like left to choose from
do not, and I repeat, DO NOT, take a TE in that round, because 99% likely you’ll get (at least 1 of) your guy(s) on the way back.

Same applies to QB. If you take a QB late, or you’re looking at a 3rd tier QB, and you’re sitting at 7 position, and teams 8-10-12 all have their QB1, and there are 3 QB you have in the same tier, DO NOT take a QB on the way to the turn. Your guy will be there on the way back.

It is very rare that any team is going TE-TE in the early rounds outside of TE-P format, and equally rare in single QB leagues that any team is going to go QB-QB or take 2 in the 1st 5 rounds.

There are always exceptions, but as a general rule, all you’re doing by not paying attention to the turns is giving away value at WR & RB to the teams after and then before you, and hurting yourself in the process.

I do this exercise just about every round past the 3rd. It doesn’t take but a second. You won’t always be right. But it applies to WR & RB as well.

if you have 2 players you like, with roughly equal drop-off to the next tier use this as a tiebreaker. You’re sitting at the 11th position and team 12 started RB-RB, and your plan is to take a RB and a WR? Take the WR 1st. Or if team 12 started WR-WR and there’s a RB & 2 WR you like? Take the RB.

Again, it’s not foolproof. Sometimes a team will throw you a curveball.

But it does work often enough that it’s worth considering. Especially with the QB, and to slightly lesser extent TE, and especially in 1 QB & non-TE-P formats.

ETA: I watched a team in my last NFFC rotowire online championship fail at this 2x They were team 4. Once when picking a TE in the 5th (on the way back) when teams 1-3 all had TE, then again in the 7th taking a QB on the way back when teams 1-3 all had QB.

He took a WR on the way back in the 6th and a RB on the way back in the 8th. Both turns saw runs at those positions, costing him tiers of drop-off. Real world example. I yelled at the screen both times. lol

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Rookies Rookies and more Rookies

-Look at ARich in '23 and JJ McCarthy already in 2024, maybe Richardson truly needed the rest of the season and JJ too but it seems like rookies and especially at QB, a hang nail and they are OUT that week, a little bruise or sore this n that, maybe a month or more. In fact let's err on the side of caution and just shut it down for the rest of the year.

I wold extend this out to Wide Receivers and Running Backs, look how cautious they were with Bijan last season.
I would be cautious about loading up on Rookies, especially if you play in Dynasty, you got more info on all the rookies than most of your Redraft GMs combined so CYE

Daniels and Williams are being taken as starter options in Redraft at QB11 and QB12 off the board.
Harrison in the early Mid 2nd Round
Not many rookie RBs being taken as anything more than RB3 this year.
I don't find a lot of Championship rosters loaded with Rookies most years in Redraft,

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Not many rookie RBs being taken as anything more than RB3 this year.

It's a very weak RB class. The best prospect is Brooks, who is hurt. We might see a different pattern in future years.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Not many rookie RBs being taken as anything more than RB3 this year.

It's a very weak RB class. The best prospect is Brooks, who is hurt. We might see a different pattern in future years.

I do like Benson despite Conner having 1,200/9TD last year, he's 29 and been in the NFL a long time by RB standards
Conner gets between 180-200 carries yer season only played in 13 games '22 and '23
Benson is going to have some weeks where he gets the start, I like his upside and have been scooping him up as an RB4 type
If he does well when he gets some touches, that would lead to a few more.
His ability to pick up the blitz or pass block for Murray at QB will be essential to any snaps they give him.

 

[blips24]

I have another one for this topic:
Ya know how if you’re around a smell long enough, you can go “nose blind”? Where everyone else smells it, but you don’t because you’re around it a lot? I had friends who lived in Turlock, there were massive chicken farms.

In the heat of the summer, the town smelled something fierce. I went out to play poker with my friends and their friends and I asked, “how do you deal with this smell all summer” and they, to a man, said “after a while ya just don’t notice it any more.”

This is also applicable to drafting. Whether it’s a mock draft or a real one, it’s human nature to look for your targets in certain ranges of the draft, but ignore others. Through mocking, or tiering players up, it’s a natural tendency to (for example) be in the 2nd round, and look for the players you expect to be there.

And that might cause you to miss a player that shouldn't be there.

Like the NFFC draft I did on Wednesday. One of the “lessons learned” for me from last year was from going back to the draft board and asking myself why I picked X player when Y player was still on the board? And time and again it was because I was looking for a player at a position I expected to be there instead of taking a tick to sort through the positions to see if there was someone unexpected.

It seems like a very obvious thing to do, and honestly I felt a little simple-minded to have overlooked it.

Back in the day I drafted with paper. I’d spend days creating my binder with color-coded tabs by position, and would cross off names each pick. Then at my turn I’d check every position page in my binder. So this isn’t a new practice for me, rather one that technology sort of defeated. Using software to draft, and software to track picks, it’s easier to forget this simple round by round exercise.

In this example I was fully planning on going WR1 ~> WR2, for weeks. I mocked that way heavily. And just before the draft I looked down at my notepad, where I’d written “check every position”.

After round 1 I did just that, and Gibbs was sitting there at 2.06, long past where he should have been.

I strikes me that the 5 teams picking before me in the 2nd may have had a preconceived target, and simply not looked at RB. It was 2 RB (Barkley/Henry) 2 WR and a TE.

So yeah - not sure what you’d call that. Confirmation bias? Probably that.

So my simple trick to winning your draft is be open minded and diligent. Check every position every round and be willing to change from your predetermined plan. Getting your targets is great. But getting your target who fell 1/2 a round late is even better.


Insomniac, out.

In my family league Olave dropped 2-3 rounds later than he should have. No one wanted a piece of the NO offense. My son "broke down" and drafted him.

 

[OzyMan]

Drafting with a forward lens vs backwards one is critical, but I do think the FF community is getting wiser to this. But that's a good way of putting it.

...here are a few of mine.

DST's matter: Time and time again, I hear...'wait until Round 16 to get your DST'. But I prefer to grab my DST early. And quite frankly, sometimes I'll grab 2. Generally, by going this route, you can get 1/2 Top 5 units. And they make great in-season deal additives and invariably everyone elses pre-season favorite sleepers bust and the WW starts to get picked clean at this position.

Time is a flat circle: 2 years ago when DeAndre Hopkins was suspended for 6 games, he was ridiculosuly cheap. But because he was missing Weeks 1-6, he generated no interest. In 9 games, he went 64/717/3...close to WR1 production...for WR4 prices. Draft a 14 week team...not just what looks good Week 1. Whether it's PUP guys, suspended guys...think about full season impact.

Boring is beautiful: Tyler Lockett has made a (fantasy) career out of continually over performing his ADP. The dirty secret about ADP is not only is it largely a popularity contest, but there's sex appeal attached to it as well. But our goal should be to buy production so look for situations as much as players and build your structure by reverse engineering your team.

Great observations. I especially like the Tyler Locket point. Myself, I like to create a roster that balances high risk high reward guys with a base of reliable, steady every week guys who won’t typically go off but also deliver steady numbers…like getting a wr in ppr who will get you a steady stream of receptions even if the yardage and tds aren’t great.

 

[OzyMan]

I have another one for this topic:
Ya know how if you’re around a smell long enough, you can go “nose blind”? Where everyone else smells it, but you don’t because you’re around it a lot? I had friends who lived in Turlock, there were massive chicken farms.

In the heat of the summer, the town smelled something fierce. I went out to play poker with my friends and their friends and I asked, “how do you deal with this smell all summer” and they, to a man, said “after a while ya just don’t notice it any more.”

This is also applicable to drafting. Whether it’s a mock draft or a real one, it’s human nature to look for your targets in certain ranges of the draft, but ignore others. Through mocking, or tiering players up, it’s a natural tendency to (for example) be in the 2nd round, and look for the players you expect to be there.

And that might cause you to miss a player that shouldn't be there.

Like the NFFC draft I did on Wednesday. One of the “lessons learned” for me from last year was from going back to the draft board and asking myself why I picked X player when Y player was still on the board? And time and again it was because I was looking for a player at a position I expected to be there instead of taking a tick to sort through the positions to see if there was someone unexpected.

It seems like a very obvious thing to do, and honestly I felt a little simple-minded to have overlooked it.

Back in the day I drafted with paper. I’d spend days creating my binder with color-coded tabs by position, and would cross off names each pick. Then at my turn I’d check every position page in my binder. So this isn’t a new practice for me, rather one that technology sort of defeated. Using software to draft, and software to track picks, it’s easier to forget this simple round by round exercise.

In this example I was fully planning on going WR1 ~> WR2, for weeks. I mocked that way heavily. And just before the draft I looked down at my notepad, where I’d written “check every position”.

After round 1 I did just that, and Gibbs was sitting there at 2.06, long past where he should have been.

I strikes me that the 5 teams picking before me in the 2nd may have had a preconceived target, and simply not looked at RB. It was 2 RB (Barkley/Henry) 2 WR and a TE.

So yeah - not sure what you’d call that. Confirmation bias? Probably that.

So my simple trick to winning your draft is be open minded and diligent. Check every position every round and be willing to change from your predetermined plan. Getting your targets is great. But getting your target who fell 1/2 a round late is even better.


Insomniac, out.

In my family league Olave dropped 2-3 rounds later than he should have. No one wanted a piece of the NO offense. My son "broke down" and drafted him.

NOLA might be sneaky good for fantasy this year. Olave should do great ppr work and Shaheed is flying well under the radar.

 

[JohnnyU]

Rookie Fever and redraft is a deadly combination.

 

[darksideofoz]

not just for redraft leagues, but especially important if you play in more than one league, but still important if you're only in one league.

the easiest way to gain an advantage over your competitors in fantasy is to know and understand your league rules better than they do.

so many times I see people playing weird and it almost always is because they don't know or understand the league rules.

a few years ago 2 of the leagues I commish switched to superflex. during the discussion leading up to the vote, and even mentioned right in the poll, it was made known that QB scoring was going to be nerfed from what we had for years to better align the QB2s with the other flex position players. week 10, same guy in both leagues, finally realized that the scoring had changed and that he had overdrafted his QBs a bit. He threw a holy fit about it, accused me of pulling a fast one on the league even. Everyone laughed at him and sent him links to the rules pages and snapshots of the poll (which he voted in) and the message board discussions.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@Statorama

-Bat signal received, been thinking about this redraft thread nonstop the last several days.
Wondering if I needed to redo the whole thing for '25 but then I go back and read what I first posted...I don't think i would change much, the theme remains the same

Good time to reboot this and start sharing my notes thus far in the off season

1st round landmines are abundant this year, almost all of the 1st round RBs outside of Gibbs could be major risks.
The same RBs you were stoked to get late 1st thru the 2nd-3rd round last season are all going in the top half of the 1st

Jeanty is a mid 1st round pick in some circles right now

 

[Ministry of Pain]

For anyone that wants to poo poo my index cards from the OP

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

JRE and Robert Rodriguez, go about 5 minutes in, he talks about the index cards, I've used them for a lot of things my entire life, was happy to hear Rodriguez discuss this.

 

[Scoresman]

I dont know what to think about first round landmines anymore. Such a craps shoot.

I specifically targeted Tyreek Hill in the first round last year because he was one of the safest if not the safest first round picks. Then he loses Tua for a large number of games. Most studs would be able to sustain even with a backup QB, but Miami essentially had practice squad QBs backing him up. It's baffling how a team with Tua at QB would invest so terribly in a backup QB.

 

[Statorama]

@Statorama

-Bat signal received, been thinking about this redraft thread nonstop the last several days.
Wondering if I needed to redo the whole thing for '25 but then I go back and read what I first posted...I don't think i would change much, the theme remains the same

Good time to reboot this and start sharing my notes thus far in the off season

1st round landmines are abundant this year, almost all of the 1st round RBs outside of Gibbs could be major risks.
The same RBs you were stoked to get late 1st thru the 2nd-3rd round last season are all going in the top half of the 1st

Jeanty is a mid 1st round pick in some circles right now

Awesome - yeah, nobody is sneaking Jeanty into Rd 2.

I'm sure it's mentioned earlier, but panic-picking at the end of a run is a trap I've seen almost every re-draft.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

@Statorama

-Bat signal received, been thinking about this redraft thread nonstop the last several days.
Wondering if I needed to redo the whole thing for '25 but then I go back and read what I first posted...I don't think i would change much, the theme remains the same

Good time to reboot this and start sharing my notes thus far in the off season

1st round landmines are abundant this year, almost all of the 1st round RBs outside of Gibbs could be major risks.
The same RBs you were stoked to get late 1st thru the 2nd-3rd round last season are all going in the top half of the 1st

Jeanty is a mid 1st round pick in some circles right now

Awesome - yeah, nobody is sneaking Jeanty into Rd 2.

I'm sure it's mentioned earlier, but panic-picking at the end of a run is a trap I've seen almost every re-draft.

Jeanty just went 13th overall in a 15-man best ball we're doing over in the Mock Draft forum, I actually though that might count as a 2.01 or turn pick in a 10-12 team redraft league so he's not going in the Top 6-8 picks as often as he was earlier in the summer

 

[@GregoryLKellogg]

I have a few of these but what I'm about to share is going to be painful for some of you.

-I used to sit there and run stats all day in the 90s, then the internet and sites like this one made it a little easier to get a grand total and make a few adjustments, I did that for a while.
Here is the truth, a few players at all the positions are consistent year in and year out and it's really not that many, very few WRs can post 1,000 yds a year 3-4-5 years in a row, it's not common.

Why do we try and pigeon hole ourselves by being chained to a bunch of stats that are not likely to show up the same as last season or as they are projected?
Many will giggle and laugh at me but I use index cards and just keep making notes on the back after the season and so on and so forth and sometimes I have to staple a 2nd index card to keep writing season after season. Sometimes we forget about big things that happen during the season that we should try and remember when we are evaluating players in July for Redrafts

Many times stats don't tell the whole story and we forget sometimes why we like or dislike a player.
I might write something like this on the back, scored but was busted coverage in a blowout, that's important IMHO, when are these stats coming and are they sustainable?

Not exactly blowing your kilt up yet you say? I have a few more for you to chew on.


-ADP or Average Draft Position...now I love me some ADP but not for the reasons you might think.
This is MoP on the com, we're not passing out popcorn and lollipops right now, you need to know why this tool is so valuable in my eyes vs what most use it for.
I'm a rotten no good Son of a Biscuit and when the herd takes off, MoP uses that info not only to go another way but to also circumvent you and your ability to take players off my personal draft board that might be coveted. I cannot tell you the number of times I read things like "What was I gonna do on the 4/5 turn?"...well what difference does it make what round it is other than the fact you have a certain number of roster spots?

Outside the Box: What if you knew players that were going later in other rounds or very late or even undrafted but you could peer into the future and see their stats?
What if in order to get these guys and not run out of roster spots, you had to start drafting guys in the 8th or 9th round, double digits but it's the 4/5 turn and there isn't anyone down the board next 2-3 rounds that will help you because you can see their stats as well, what would you do? Would you just keep taking guys that aren't gonna help you? Hell Bleeping No, you would start collecting all the top players even if you have to reach because its really not a reach when you get comfortable with your evaluations of players.

I have news some of you, there are guys going in the 1st round that shouldn't which is scary and we're gonna hear these folks cry about it before we even get out of September
There are guys going in the 2nd and 3rd round, maybe a little further out that I think will be 1st round picks next year, see what I did there? Who will be drafted in the 1st round of 2025?
And if you think that's a goofball way of thinking, all the better for MoP

BTW: Underdog $3 best ball leagues, payout is 27-10-6, no waivers, just draft and forget about it.
Best ball vs setting a line up each week but no real management needed. If you haven't checked it out, I would tell you it's a great way to practice up for some of your other more established leagues, don't get hung up that it's best ball, that's the best format for what they are doing or offering here.

My 3rd entry into this OP is going to focus on what I find to be misleading many times and folks fall for it every year time and time again...just to really land the plane I am going to share something some of you may not be aware of but you would if you frequent the FFA...75% of all TV ads running right now are put there by Pharmaceutical companies "Talk to Your Doctor" Without going on a complete sidetrack I just want to get your attention and understand that ALL of us are victims to wanting to find answers and then we get served some info that really does not help but appears like a real solution such as "O-O-O-OZempic, you knowwwwww, never believe what we say"

And so I turn to the Sports media/social media outlets/media of all kinds
Now I like a good camp report as much as the next person, eyes on the field and can see who the fastest guy is, which WR is having the best connection with the QB, etc...
But the reality is most of these folks get paid to report on the team, however they cannot come right out and say this team sucks in preseason

Chris Perkins
Omar Kelly
Armando Salguero...he carried that Miami flag for many years when they SUCKED
Barry
Greg Cote, yes him too
David Hyde
and I can keep naming the local beat writers for the Miami Dolphins, there's 1 or 2 that are not connected directly to the Miami Herald, The Palm Beach Post...these guys that write have to be welcome into the building of the teams they support. If you're banned from the stadium for being honest, you can't exactly get a good interview after the game. Most of these writers are *** kissers to be honest with you. I had a guy inside that was working with Miami back in 2010-2011, somewhere around that time I felt lucky to have am inside connection. I can't reveal this guy's name for what I'm about to share but when I would go to support him at events and mingle, I quickly discovered he had a rather large cocaine problem and I don't judge, we've all been there...oh we haven't? OK, but here is what I know about people who are trying to work professionally and are addicted to drugs, they usually cannot filter and will make bad decisions at terrible times and find themselves out of a job...this guy was too honest and he didn't last long around here.

The guys who keep their jobs on the local level tend to kiss up to the owner and players, it's just part of the job
Who do you think leaks out info to the public when "sources" within the organization want to use a media member for their selfish purposes?
We all got to make a living, these guys are no different and they try not to bite the hand that feeds them but we gotta call it like it is.

-Let's take that and expand out on a lot of websites that are not really local but spit out info faster than you can print and read it on the run up to the season starting
I would bet there are numerous articles online I can find that will tell you Cooper Kupp is toast and Puka Nacua is now the bonafide No 1 in L.A.
And I bet there are numerous articles that are telling you to grab Cooper Kupp and cash in on his discount in the 3rd-4th round
Whatever player you want to find out about, you'll find an article online to meet your needs, I just don't think many writers can watch games the same as I do and I definitely don't think they take down note cards and keep an ongoing list of items to draw from.

From opening kick off to about the last whistle on SNF, i try and watch as many/ALL of them. You know people in your leagues that don't and yet they will draft players they've rarely seen play and hope for the best.
And I know what a few of you are thinking and that brings me to FBG which I feel is one of the more/most honest sites and they should be, not affiliated with any one team, just a passion for what we do here in the Shark Pool, reporting the facts as they see it. Joe has every game covered on Sunday, he has people that will watch all 3 hours without much interruption, most newspaper writers have deadlines and a lot of their article is already written by about midway thru the 3rd quarter and a few of them are too busy drinking and eating hot dogs up in the press box to really focus on the game.

-Media bad, dishonest and spits out misinformation, you're far better off watching the games yourself and forming your own opinions...in a nutshell

I like the Twitter clips where guys break down film as we are watching it, I find those to be somewhat informative but again they just focus on one or two plays sometimes, doesn't tell the whole story. Did I say Twitter? Sorry, what's it called now, Y or Z?

And with this I am going to pause and conclude the OP but i want to hear from many of you and you tell me what traps you find common
I have more but this is a good place to stop and digest some of this. I'm sure a few of you are going to tell me I'm nuts and have counter POV, all good

Great thread !

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

@Statorama

-Bat signal received, been thinking about this redraft thread nonstop the last several days.
Wondering if I needed to redo the whole thing for '25 but then I go back and read what I first posted...I don't think i would change much, the theme remains the same

Good time to reboot this and start sharing my notes thus far in the off season

1st round landmines are abundant this year, almost all of the 1st round RBs outside of Gibbs could be major risks.
The same RBs you were stoked to get late 1st thru the 2nd-3rd round last season are all going in the top half of the 1st

Jeanty is a mid 1st round pick in some circles right now

Awesome - yeah, nobody is sneaking Jeanty into Rd 2.

I'm sure it's mentioned earlier, but panic-picking at the end of a run is a trap I've seen almost every re-draft.

Jeanty just went 13th overall in a 15-man best ball we're doing over in the Mock Draft forum, I actually though that might count as a 2.01 or turn pick in a 10-12 team redraft league so he's not going in the Top 6-8 picks as often as he was earlier in the summer

I still don't think that's good value, but I have a pretty hard/fast rule about drafting rookies in the top half of a redraft.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Another one that just popped into my head, and it’s a trap I think everyone falls into:

When you’re OTC, even though you (hypothetically) went RB/RB, you don’t love the WR on the board in the 3rd, so you go TE1. Then in the 4th you still don’t love the WR on the board, so you go QB1. Then in the 5th you still don’t love the WR on the board, so you take a 3rd RB.

Now it’s the 6th and you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel for WR. You’ve reached on a TE & QB, and put yourself into a hole.

Sometimes you have to bite the bullet and take a player at a position of need that maybe you don’t love because pro tip: the players on the board *never, ever get better* in the next round.

Points are points. If I don’t love a guy but they’re gonna give me WR1-2 production, and are available when I need a WR1-2, imma take em if it looks like a tier drop is coming.

The lesson is to never punt on a position. It will only get worse as the draft goes on.