I'm more than a little upset that Mendenhall will be getting pulled at the goal line. In my mind this drops him to a high end #2 running back. I picked Mendenhall with the understanding that he would be getting to td's in the backfield.
I thought 10 td's was his floor this year. Now it's possible that he ends up with around 6 td's and becomes nothing more than a #2 back.
Am I off base on this or did I truly waste my #1 draft choice?
I just don't get this. Mendenhall has been seriously overvalued this year. I just watched him go in the 1st round of a draft 2 weeks ago. Sure it was a Pitt homer draft but still, come on. Why in the world would you think his floor is 10 rushing TDs? You do realize as a team Pitt only rushed for 10 TDs last year. Only 7 of those were by RBs (all Mendenhall). Now they have lost their best Olineman, best WR and QB for 4 games and Mendehall has a floor of 10 TDs?
Despite losing Colon, this unit is going to be considerably BETTER at run blocking this year, so long as they stay healthy. Pouncey is a huge upgrade over Hartwig. Flozell gives whoever the QB is something like a 1 in 4 chance of being killed on every snap, but he's still a bulldozer on the run. Word out of camp is that the addition of Flozell has payed its BIGGEST dividends in that in a matter of weeks, he has taught Starks more about being big, nasty, and punishing than Starks had learned his entire career to date. The G's were already fine in the run game. So I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see a significant bump in YPC over the course of the year.The loss of Holmes is going to be much ado about nothing. Good player, don't get me wrong. But the secret that hasn't seemed to trickle out of the Burgh yet is that Mike Wallace is primed to take that role and run with it. Guy is blazing fast, has great hands, runs crisp routes, and unlike Holmes, is an absolute sponge when it comes to learning day-to-day. That includes making the most of having history's best blocking, dirtiest WR on the opposite side of the field. Wallace is going to be a more complete WR than Holmes could ever dream of being. He's probably not going to have the raw #'s Holmes did last year...at least not right away, but Holmes isn't going to be missed nearly as much as people think in the overall machinery of that offense.
The QB thing is a mixed blessing, of course. D's are going to stack up on the PIT run game, but at the same time, PIT's going to lean on that run game a lot more. Whether that comes out as a net positive for Mendy's stats over the first few games is hard to guess. Probably work out for him once or twice, and fail to once or twice, but it certainly doesn't crater his value to be option 1, 2, and 3 most drives for the first four weeks.
I do agree that anyone suggesting a FLOOR of 10 TD's is stark, raving mad. But I think that's true for maybe everyone but ADP and maybe Turner. I don't think 10 is at all a stretch, though.