What have you learned about processing preseason news? (1 Viewer)

[rschroeder1]

Two storylines from this year stick out to me: Ja'Mar Chase having a terrible camp, and Trey Sermon shining.

I would be curious to know what strategies people use to use or reject preseason reports. Generally, I try to ignore any report that doesn't specifically mention something football/skill related, but that approach failed with Sermon.

I've read complaints on this site that there is too much info, reducing any research edge. I'm getting to the point where I think there is too much noise, and I'm trying to be better about processing it.

 

[TampaMike19]

Two storylines from this year stick out to me: Ja'Mar Chase having a terrible camp, and Trey Sermon shining.

I would be curious to know what strategies people use to use or reject preseason reports. Generally, I try to ignore any report that doesn't specifically mention something football/skill related, but that approach failed with Sermon.

I've read complaints on this site that there is too much info, reducing any research edge. I'm getting to the point where I think there is too much noise, and I'm trying to be better about processing it.

Beat writers in preseason can suck it 

 

[Deamon]

Two storylines from this year stick out to me: Ja'Mar Chase having a terrible camp, and Trey Sermon shining.

I would be curious to know what strategies people use to use or reject preseason reports. Generally, I try to ignore any report that doesn't specifically mention something football/skill related, but that approach failed with Sermon.

I've read complaints on this site that there is too much info, reducing any research edge. I'm getting to the point where I think there is too much noise, and I'm trying to be better about processing it.

I think analysts are more and more looking for clicks, looking to become relevant by putting out constant content, and trying to be "first" to make a call.

I'm not sure how I'll adjust to that because I admittedly do follow and listen to a lot of stuff preseason. 

But you're right, those Chase and Sermon reports threw me and a LOT of people off this preseason.  This board was full of very smart people who were pumping Sermon and fading Chase.  It's almost like doing MORE research hurt in this situation, and those who 'overdrafted Chase' and "let Sermon fall", rode to riches.

 

[menobrown]

I would be curious to know what strategies people use to use or reject preseason reports.

Nothing what I'd term bulletproof but experience with the beat writers, as best I can I try and remember who really got stuff wrong or right.

And in your initial post you highlighted a few of the players that beat writers got wrong but on the flip side I'd point out guys that beat writers got me stronger on such as Deebo and Kupp along with players that due to beat writer influence I got properly lower on, like a Claypool.

The answer to the question you pose would pretty much be the key to unlocking fantasy success IMO, that and good old fashioned luck. Beat writers win some and lose some but they are our eyes and ears for a ton of info we don't otherwise get so I find them to be a valuable resource, preseason reports/hype to be a valuable tool, but weeding out the bad info is key and again to me that's more of a process.

 

[shadrap]

they were right on M. Williams, wrong on Bryon Edwards again.  L. Shenault was pumped all preseason also.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Two storylines from this year stick out to me: Ja'Mar Chase having a terrible camp, and Trey Sermon shining.

I actually argued with a few people at the time how ridiculous they were about being concerned by a week of bad practices. There was actually  topic started about him dropping balls in practice.

 

[Rubi]

I've learned that pre-season news,except for season ending injuries,should be ignored.

 

[Tom Hagen]

Beat writers in preseason can suck it 

I'm really struggling with how a beat writer can be around the team all through camp and preseason and have no idea the team wasn't enamored with Sermon.  On the flip side, I don't recall one writer talking about Stafford's connection with Kupp prior to the season.  Are the teams really good at hiding things or are beat writers just not paying attention?

 

[floods]

I think analysts are more and more looking for clicks, looking to become relevant by putting out constant content, and trying to be "first" to make a call.

This is where I land. Media is about ad sales, and whatever generates those clicks is what writers write about, particularly when it can be made hyperbolic. Writers are benefitted by readers' incredibly short memories.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'm really struggling with how a beat writer can be around the team all through camp and preseason and have no idea the team wasn't enamored with Sermon.  On the flip side, I don't recall one writer talking about Stafford's connection with Kupp prior to the season.  Are the teams really good at hiding things or are beat writers just not paying attention?

I don't think Stafford fully understood how good Kupp was a getting open until things went "live".

 

[fightingillini]

I don't think Stafford fully understood how good Kupp was a getting open until things went "live".

This.

What happens in reality is that teams will attack and attack a certain way until the league figures out how to stop it.  Everyone know that TEN is going to run he ball with Derrick Henry (when he's healthy) or IND is going to run Jonathan Taylor, but the defenses still can't stop it.    Everyone knows that Rodgers is going to throw to Adams on 3rd and short, and somehow teams just can't stop it.  Same thing applies for Kupp.   Teams had game film to figure out how to take Kupp out of the game, but never could figure it out.  Also it helps that LAR is very creative at getting Kupp open.  So it's Kupp's talent as well as good scheming. 

 

[Payne]

I don't think we learned anything we didn't already know. Some rumblings end up true, some do not. 

Historically I would study pre-season games and make my own conclusions. I take notes on who is getting the targets or carries. This year was not very helpful and it may not be a good strategy moving forward. 

I also go with my gut. I loved B Cooks this year, but none of the experts were. Easy #1 WR on a team that would be behind all year? Yes please. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

Almost all my early off-season focus is centered around the draft. Obviously you take note of FA activity even in redraft, but I tend to roster mostly guys still on their rookie deal (not exclusively but 2nd/3rd year breakouts make up 50% or more of my roster every year.) My off-season intake peaks in April & May. Once OTAs are over I check out for a good six weeks.

At that point I have formed a lot of opinions on what I think about players. I rank rookies before we know the landing spots. Of course situation matters (massively) but I try to complete talent evaluations before knowing where rookies are going. 

There’s a lot of white noise in preseason. I try to view it through the prism of what I learned February-May. It’s imperfect, more art than science, but I look for situations that have been repeatedly confirmed. Draft profiles that translate into teams taking the player early or moving up bc they really want him. OTA reports that are confirmed by performance in TC/PS.

I was surprised how many were on the Sermon train. I know a certain staff member who was on a lot of podcasts saying he was the best RB in the class had impact. But that was a minority view. Personally I thought Najee had the best situation and the two NC RBs the most talent. Etienne was too muddled for my taste - weird pick, strange HC who looked like a disaster before they even put in pads, et al.

Chase was the most complete WR profile we had seen in years. Although some cautioned “don’t expect him to put up Jefferson type production bc that was super rare”, he was def the cream of a pretty strong class. The various reports mid to late camp were confusing and it DEFINITELY made me hesitant to take him. But my recollection is not knowing how Chase/Higgins/Boyd would shake out was as big of a factor.

I’m tuned into TC/PS noise but it’s pretty rare for players to come completely out of nowhere - and that goes for either direction IME. For example: Toney seemed like a reach for his NFL draft position, gadgety guy who would be a project bc he’s not good at his craft yet, IMMATURE (big red flag), injury prone, bad situation, et al. Super easy avoid. ARSB was the opposite in almost every aspect. Value pick, good hands & footwork, good blocker, maybe a better RL than fantasy WR, had opportunity, and was a OTA/TC star every.single. day. Easy choice for a sleeper.

IDK, it’s imperfect. I am imperfect. I’m lucky if I’m right 60% of the time. Players bust all the time. Injuries happen. Regimes change. We make decisions based on the best available information and sometimes it’s not enough. I’m OK with making mistakes.

I always have the attitude I’m either winning or I’m learning. If you screw something up, try to learn from it. But I think it’s good to acknowledge that you’ll screw something up again. It just be that way sometimes.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I don't think we learned anything we didn't already know. Some rumblings end up true, some do not. 

Historically I would study pre-season games and make my own conclusions. I take notes on who is getting the targets or carries. This year was not very helpful and it may not be a good strategy moving forward. 

I also go with my gut. I loved B Cooks this year, but none of the experts were. Easy #1 WR on a team that would be behind all year? Yes please. 

Cooks in the 9th as my WR4 (became WR3) was my best value pick. Seemed like a slam dunk value pick.

AGREED about the value of PS games this year. Almost worthless. Going to be interesting to see if that’s a one off or the new normal.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I'm not sure how I'll adjust to that because I admittedly do follow and listen to a lot of stuff preseason. 

But you're right, those Chase and Sermon reports threw me and a LOT of people off this preseason.  This board was full of very smart people who were pumping Sermon and fading Chase.  It's almost like doing MORE research hurt in this situation, and those who 'overdrafted Chase' and "let Sermon fall", rode to riches.

Reminds me of "smart money" coming in late when betting football. Sometimes the original line was the smarter one.

 

[menobrown]

I'm really struggling with how a beat writer can be around the team all through camp and preseason and have no idea the team wasn't enamored with Sermon.  On the flip side, I don't recall one writer talking about Stafford's connection with Kupp prior to the season.  Are the teams really good at hiding things or are beat writers just not paying attention?

Regarding Kupp I read about his connection with Stafford all over the place, it's why I mentioned him earlier in this thread about being someone beat writers got me higher on. In fact the beat writers point blank kept referring to their connection,  the drumbeat was loud on this one.

As for Sermon they whiffed but I don't recall them being so much enamored of him as saying he was running with the 1's from what they saw and that was accurate. Those same beat writers, and again I referenced this earlier, point blank said Deebo was having the best camp by far of any WR on the team and that Aiyuk was not doing so great but people were still drafting Aiyuk several rounds ahead of him. I was myself until two beat writers said this and it was game changing information.

So to those of you who say beat writers suck and the info is worthless I could not disagree more. This is a competitive game and how much info you dig and how you personally process that info is absolutely huge to help you get any rise above the masses relying on easily obtainable rotoblurb type news everyone sees with minimal effort. My take is if someone thinks beat writers are worthless you are not following the right beat writers, digging hard enough for news or just not processing the info correctly. Not trying to be an #### and understand not everyone has time, but beat writers are a supreme wealth of info.

 

[Gally]

I don't think we learned anything we didn't already know. Some rumblings end up true, some do not. 

Historically I would study pre-season games and make my own conclusions. I take notes on who is getting the targets or carries. This year was not very helpful and it may not be a good strategy moving forward. 

I also go with my gut. I loved B Cooks this year, but none of the experts were. Easy #1 WR on a team that would be behind all year? Yes please. 

I think pre-season games are terrible with regards to targets/carries/etc.  Pre-season is all about the eye test for me.  I really don't care if they are getting a ton of looks (as that usually happens to guys they don't care if they get injured).  I want to see if a guy looks smooth at the NFL level.  Does he have good technique and looks like he belongs.  That to me is the most important thing. 

As an example, I had never heard of Jermichael Finley.  I happened to be watching a replay of the Packers preseason game right before my dynasty draft.  I saw Finley and how good he looked athletically for a TE and how big he was compared to other NFL'ers.  After watching a few series I made a note and drafted him really late that year.  He was awesome and I never would have done that without seeing him pass the eye test in that preseason game.  It had nothing to do with targets or carries or etc. 

 

[Gally]

Regarding Kupp I read about his connection with Stafford all over the place, it's why I mentioned him earlier in this thread about being someone beat writers got me higher on. In fact the beat writers point blank kept referring to their connection,  the drumbeat was loud on this one.

As for Sermon they whiffed but I don't recall them being so much enamored of him as saying he was running with the 1's from what they saw and that was accurate. Those same beat writers, and again I referenced this earlier, point blank said Deebo was having the best camp by far of any WR on the team and that Aiyuk was not doing so great but people were still drafting Aiyuk several rounds ahead of him. I was myself until two beat writers said this and it was game changing information.

So to those of you who say beat writers suck and the info is worthless I could not disagree more. This is a competitive game and how much info you dig and how you personally process that info is absolutely huge to help you get any rise above the masses relying on easily obtainable rotoblurb type news everyone sees with minimal effort. My take is if someone thinks beat writers are worthless you are not following the right beat writers, digging hard enough for news or just not processing the info correctly. Not trying to be an #### and understand not everyone has time, but beat writers are a supreme wealth of info.

I don't think you can make this type of blanket statement at all.  As @menobrownpointed out you can have good and bad beat writers.  Figuring out which is which is probably the most important thing you can do with respect to camp news.   Figure out which beat guys give quality info and which do not is a big factor.  

Also being able to differentiate the noise from the news as someone else pointed out.   A good rule of thumb I have gone by is many times "good" news is fluff and can typically be considered noise.  So-and-so is in the best shape of his life type things.  But repeated bad news usually is a time to perk up.  In camp most beat writers want to paint a rosy picture because it helps get them access but bad news is usually something frowned upon so if its coming out then I perk up.  It's not to say all bad news is reliable (see Chase) but I at least pay more attention and try and see if I can get it corroborated in some way in order to accept it.  

 

[Payne]

I think pre-season games are terrible with regards to targets/carries/etc.  Pre-season is all about the eye test for me.  I really don't care if they are getting a ton of looks (as that usually happens to guys they don't care if they get injured).  I want to see if a guy looks smooth at the NFL level.  Does he have good technique and looks like he belongs.  That to me is the most important thing. 

As an example, I had never heard of Jermichael Finley.  I happened to be watching a replay of the Packers preseason game right before my dynasty draft.  I saw Finley and how good he looked athletically for a TE and how big he was compared to other NFL'ers.  After watching a few series I made a note and drafted him really late that year.  He was awesome and I never would have done that without seeing him pass the eye test in that preseason game.  It had nothing to do with targets or carries or etc. 

Yeah, this is kind of what I meant. I worded it poorly. I look at both opportunity shares and the eye test. I always valued the "dress rehearsal" game 3 more than most as I truly think it did show who would get the opportunities throughout the season. 

 

[TampaMike19]

I think you just gotta follow the teams and transactions, hope for some continuity year over year, and draft accordingly. Remember draft day price on rookies as well and maybe exploit negative news.

I don't know - it's easier said than done. I think people swing the pendulum too far in both directions when it comes to bullish and bearish news. We should take the news as a small data point but nothing major, because I didn't grab Chase anywhere because "I thought I knew more than the market." Odds are, we don't know much more if any than the market these days. You really gotta grind for some advantages. 

 

[Dizzy]

I actually argued with a few people at the time how ridiculous they were about being concerned by a week of bad practices. There was actually  topic started about him dropping balls in practice.

There was something else too... a Twitter thing between he and his girlfriend... suggested a "situation" had occurred between them, later taken down. People started writing him off immediately.

 

[Dizzy]

Preseason news, including things that happen on the field in preseason, is at best - meaningless, and at worst - misleading.

Having said that, it's always been that way. It's just much worse now than it used to be.

As @Rubi mentioned, injury news is the only true news... and that gets played with no more than ever.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

the real answer for most will be "not a damn thing"".   

People will still bite the hook of a slow news day with regard to beat writer stories about players having good or bad camps, much of which is rumor or coach-speak. What coach is going to say of the player they just drafted, "he looks like trash, we wish we'd never drafted him." - none. 

Regarding the Chase drops, it's actually still been a problem for him. He's just been so good/productive otherwise that they've been glossed over/minimized. But you can bet if he drops a crucial pass in the playoffs that costs them the game, his season-long struggle with drops is going to be the headline, regardless of how many sideline circus catches he makes. 

And regarding the situation with his g/f that @Dizzy pointed out, that was a substantial story, given attention by a reliable beat writer about a tweet posted by his then- pregnant g/f that suggest some sort of abusive situation.  I'm sorry, but that's worthy of attention from every FF manager, and was justifiably a cause for concern. In a post-Ray Rice age of the NFL suspending players for things like this (not to mention some of us preferring not to roster scumbags who beat their pregnant girlfriends/wives) that sort of story will always be relevant, regardless of whether she deleted it or not. 

Downplaying a potentially serious situation as some sort of dumb overreaction by FF managers is not the way to approach that, IMO. And purely from a dynasty perspective, it should absolutely be a cause for concern when investing in such a player with a top 2 pick. Look at the Ruggs situation - had dynasty owners known about his propensity to drink & drive, would he have still been a top 10 dynasty selection? Red flags are red flags. 

But yeah - post hoc analysis Chase was a great pick, so long as that story (or another like it) doesn't resurface & impact his career 

Overall I try not to read into too much in the preseason. I do try to determine if players who ended the prior year with injury are fully recovered, etc. 

 

[Chaka]

Flip a coin.

Heads you agree with the hype/criticism

Tails you disagree with the hype/criticism

 

[Chaka]

FTR Chase was dropping a seemingly significant % of passes and Sermon was apparently shining so, what're ya gonna do?

 

[Banger]

Preseason is preseason and it's always been difficult to read the tea leaves and it's only gotten harder with essentially most players not playing in the preseason these days.  Things ebb and flow as new players get acclimated/have difficulty, deal with playbooks and entirely new way of life.  This year changes nothing for me...you pick talent, situations, opportunity and balance vs the cost to acquire and hope for the best.  

 

[Tau837]

So to those of you who say beat writers suck and the info is worthless I could not disagree more. This is a competitive game and how much info you dig and how you personally process that info is absolutely huge to help you get any rise above the masses relying on easily obtainable rotoblurb type news everyone sees with minimal effort. My take is if someone thinks beat writers are worthless you are not following the right beat writers, digging hard enough for news or just not processing the info correctly. Not trying to be an #### and understand not everyone has time, but beat writers are a supreme wealth of info.

Agree. As one example, Daniel Popper is the Chargers beat writer for the Athletic, and I think he is a very good source.

 

[themeistersinger]

Agree. As one example, Daniel Popper is the Chargers beat writer for the Athletic, and I think he is a very good source.

So besides him, who do people think are good / bad beat writers?  I personally like Joe Buscaglia at The Athletic covering the Bills.  I don't remember who the guy was last year, but I'd say the guy that was fluffing Bryan Edwards for the Raiders in preseason 2020 was definitely not reliable.

You also always have to keep in mind that coaches don't always want to tip their hands.  A good beat writer could still get misled by the coaching staff.  For one thing, a guy like Shanahan seems to love playing mind games, not just with the beat writers but with his own players.  So even a highly professional beat writer might have no clue what a guy like Shanahan would be thinking.