The Doctor
Footballguy
Who would you consider trading heads up for him. He is definitely a solid wr3 play im jujst wondering if anyone has dealt him recently what you received/gave for him
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What is A.J Green's value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter The Doctor
- Start date
Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
I can only speak from a dynasty perspective, so he's worth the 1.01 in 2012 rookie draft or a top 10 player+. Essentially he carries top value.
netnalp
Footballguy
I haven't dealt him yet, but I keep getting offers for AJ Green & one of my RBs for Andre Johnson. I haven't accepted yet because I think Green and Johnson are = straight up as fantasy WRs the rest of the season. Plus as a keeper AJ would cost me a 1st round pick while Green only a 9th.
Warrior
Footballguy
Sounds very fair, both ways.
Shermanator
Footballguy
He's on pace for 1200+ yards and 10tds this year. He is definitely top 20 going forward and easily a WR2 with WR1 potential. The only question mark is whether or not Dalton can get him the ball. So far that question has been answered YES in capitol letters. He is also worth more than the 1.01 pick in rookie drafts, he has already proven he belongs, and is a bona fide stud in the making.
The only problem with establishing his worth IMO is that the owners that do not own him, do not realize how good he really is, so that skews his worth.
To me he is worth any of the following running backs straight up...Mendenhall, CJ, Matthews, Stephen Jackson, Best, to name a few. Getting the other owner to realize this, is another story.
The only problem with establishing his worth IMO is that the owners that do not own him, do not realize how good he really is, so that skews his worth.
To me he is worth any of the following running backs straight up...Mendenhall, CJ, Matthews, Stephen Jackson, Best, to name a few. Getting the other owner to realize this, is another story.
Corn Rocket
Footballguy
I agree with this!
The Chicken Roaster
Footballguy
For a redraft? I couldn't disagree with you more. Weeks 10-16 (the most important generally) AJ will have monster numbers compared to Green imo. At the end of the day, Cinci still has a rookie QB and during that stretch they play Bal and Pitt 4 times.I actually have both of them, so I hope they do equalize each other though haha
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The Chicken Roaster
Footballguy
Check those stats. Yahoo (which is what I use) has Pittsburgh giving up the least points to WR's this season. Baltimore 16th. Baltimore at home is a completely different beast though.Either way, their 2nd half of the season will be a much tougher one. Also, once Benson gets suspended, I doubt that'll help anything either.
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duaneok66
Footballguy
eh, I use footballoutsiders.com, which tracks stats per play. So obviously that is where the diescrpeancy lies. My point is that A J Green is a bonafide #1WR, and as such he should be started against most defenses. BAL is the only defense I'd consider benching him against . . .
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
In dynasty, I would rank in behind megatron and Dez, however I might even take green over Dez until Dez proves his health... Jones isn't far behind.
The Chicken Roaster
Footballguy
He's a #1 talent but I don't see him putting up #1 stats for the rest of the season. QB's don't throw it to Ike Taylor. If he's matched up against Green all game, I doubt he gets more than 10-12 catches in the two games. Taylor's Resume:
Boldin: 4-74-0
Obamanu: 4-34 (and he may have been covering Williams who had one catch)
R. Wayne: 3-24
A. Johnson 4-36 (obv got hurt in the 2nd quarter, but after he went out Hou WR's caught 0 passes)
N. Washington: 5-69
I'm not saying you should bench him, but don't expect much from him from any of those 4 games this year. I'm not attacking you; more or less giving Ike Taylor the props he deserves. One of the most underrated players in the league.
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shadyridr
Footballguy
10-12 catches in two games is equivalent to an 80-96 catch season
duaneok66
Footballguy
first of all, very good post because unlike most on here, you actually backed it up with detailed facts . . .
still, that's a middling bunch . . .
Washington is a defacto #1 after Britt went down, Wayne has no QB, Obomanu is a career backup, and Johnson was hurt during the game so he doesnt count . . . Even Boldin is only an intermediate, YAC guy . . .
I'd take Green over all the above (except a healthy Johnson of course). . .
we are both right in not expecting top tier numbers against the Steelers and Ravens . . .
still, that's a middling bunch . . .
Washington is a defacto #1 after Britt went down, Wayne has no QB, Obomanu is a career backup, and Johnson was hurt during the game so he doesnt count . . . Even Boldin is only an intermediate, YAC guy . . .
I'd take Green over all the above (except a healthy Johnson of course). . .
we are both right in not expecting top tier numbers against the Steelers and Ravens . . .
The Chicken Roaster
Footballguy
Yes, except I wasn't predicting his games... I was predicting his ceiling. Also going with those catches, are zero touchdowns and ~40-80 yards. You can do better than a 5 catch for 60 yards receiver which is what I expect from him in both of those games.
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
I agree with Chicken Roaster that Pitt and Bal are less than ideal matchups, but one of those 4 games (Bal) is actually week 17. And while I am not thrilled with the week 10-13 gauntlet of Pitt, @ Bal, Cle, @Pitt the playoff line-up (weeks 14-16) of Hou, @StL, AZ looks pretty juicy to me.
The Chicken Roaster
Footballguy
Damn, for some reason I thought Baltimore was week 16. Nice catch. You make an excellent point. So in conclusion my friends... Green won't help you much getting to the playoffs but if you can get there anyway... he'll be very very valuable. (and with AJ, White, and Maclin this could be what I'm looking at)
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Agreed. So as far as strategy, I might suggest that those of you who don't have Green (but have playoff bound teams that can either bench him or live with anticipated WR3 production in weeks 10-13) make some trade offers to teams that:- have Green- will be struggling just to get to the playoffs- can be shown that Green won't help them to get thereAlternatively, those who have Green but will be struggling to reach the playoffs may want to try to sell him soon to a team that is already thinking playoffs.As always, just my opinion.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Love his talent. He has surpassed my expectations for sure. I wrote him off a bit because of his situation...mistake.
The Chicken Roaster
Footballguy
Especially if he goes off this week which he very well could. If you're 2-4 with Green after this week, he might be a perfect sell high. It sucks he won't be on your team during the playoffs but hey, you gotta be in it to win it.
shnikies
Footballguy
Boldin tied his season highObamanu's season high is 6-51
Wayne, I guess I'll give credit despite the quarterback play and the fact they switched QB's mid-game
Johnson, Injured in the 2nd quarter and I don't give a rat's ### what he did against Jacoby Jones
Washington, I'll give him credit but 5-69 (80 for 1104) seems about average for Nate Washington
Also, predicting A.J. Green won't get in the end zone is a complete shot in the dark. The only guy on that list who I might rather have as a goal line receiver is Johnson.
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shnikies
Footballguy
Green has 10 games left and AJ has 8 games left (if he doesn't return until week 8) so you have to calculate how many more points Green would get than an average receiver (AJ's replacement) for the two weeks AJ is out and then compare to the amount of points AJ will outscore Green for the 8 weeks they both play. I think Andre Johnson is still more valuable but it's definitely closer than you would think.
Reepicheep
Footballguy
For those keeping score, even 1000/8 would be a subtantial accomplishment. Pretty sure this kid is for real.
duaneok66
Footballguy
The Chicken Roaster
Footballguy
Fantasy doesn't work that way. It's a week-to-week comparison. If Green goes off for 300 yards this week, then awesome he won you one week, but if he goes off for 50 yards the next two weeks he could lose you two weeks. But when you add it up, 400 yards in 3 weeks is excellent even though you went 1-2. So let's look at it week-to-week:week 6 choose Green
week 7 push (Green bye, let's assume Johnson out)
week 8 Jax@Hou, Cin@Sea choose Johnson
week 9 Cle@Hou, Cin@Ten choose Johnson
week 10 Hou@TB, Pit@Cin choose Johnson
week 11 AJ Bye, choose Green
week 12 Hou@Jax, Cle@Cin choose Johnson
week 13 Atl@Hou, Cin@Pit choose Johnson
week 14 Hou@Cin. choose Johnson
So, until the playoffs, I would choose to start a healthy AJ (obviously this is a ridiculously important assumption of this post), 6 out of the next 8 weeks over Green, and that's the length of most leagues regular seasons. The only questionalbe one is week 8 since it's Johnson's first game back so you may be weary. You could talk me into 5 of the 8 weeks. Some of these matchups are close, or may favor Green slightly based on pure matchup, but let's not forget Andre Johnson is the BEST Wide Receiver in the freakin' league. Don't get carried away.
Now, let's look at the playoffs. A.J. Green has a couple great matchups against St. Louis and Arizona at home (could be snowing). But the argument ends when you look at Andre Johnson's week 15 and 16:
HOME against both Carolina and Indy. I don't think this comparison is very close at all.
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shnikies
Footballguy
Though, judging value solely on total points doesn't make sense, basing it on amount of times one outscores the other doesn't either. How many times will AJ outscore Green by enough points that he will win you a week as opposed to Green? Sure, he might outscore Green by several points for however amount of weeks but what about the times he doesn't play, by how many points will Green outscore AJ's replacement? Remember, I never said Green is more valuable, look at the bolded in my post, I was just saying people underestimate the effect of missing several weeks has on a player's value.
netnalp
Footballguy
I should have specified keeper, forgot to put that in. I didn't do the AJ for Green trade because the guy wanted Gore & Green. My starting WRs are S. Smith Carolina & Green. If I traded for AJ, I'd have to play Garcon as my #2 till AJ gets healthy and Torain or Ingram as my #2 RB. I think I'd lose too much. Also AJ can't be kept next year and Green would only cost me a 9th round pick to keep.If it were Redraft, I'd counter with Green & Torain for AJ. I think AJ is better but not by much, maybe an average of 3 points a game when healthy. But with him missing time and his injury I'm not going to pay much more than Green for him.
fantasizing
Footballguy
AJ Green is the next Randy Moss.
Right now, he's getting alot of targets from Dalton. So even if Dalton struggles, Green will get his fair share of receptions and TD's
because he's targetted so much.
Right now, he's getting alot of targets from Dalton. So even if Dalton struggles, Green will get his fair share of receptions and TD's
because he's targetted so much.
eakfootball
Footballguy
You would rank Green and Dez above guys like Fitz and Nicks?
Reepicheep
Footballguy
Easy now!!!
T with T
Footballguy
Wr3???? are you kidding me.. he is a top 10 scorer in ppr, and not to mention how many passes Dalton missed which could have been tds... Green could have 2-3 more tds had Dalton been able to hit him up.. A wr 3 would be 24-36 ranked not top 10 bud... He is a low end wr1 with Top tier potential...
footballnerd
Footballguy
this makes me feel good that hes my WR3, but his 3 great games were against weaker pass Defs (DEN, BUF, JAX), he might not have as great of weeks the coming 5 games.
boonesfarm4me
Footballguy
the moops
Footballguy
bizkliz
Footballguy
man, i love this kid.-biz-
