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What Situation Do You Think Fantasy GMs are Overlooking the Most? (1 Viewer)

Revo

Revo

Footballguy
I think most fantasy owners are overlooking the addition of Brian Leonard to St Louis' backfield. No, he won't encroach on Jackson's rushing yardage, but he likely will take down that huge reception total. I believe Jackson is clearly worthy of the #2 spot -- but that said, I don't believe he'll come close to 90 catches again. 60-65 catches may be more like it.

What situation do you believe most fantasy owners don't want to acknowledge?

 
I think many owners are downright delusional about Frank Gore and MJD. Neither will approach what they did last year.

 
I don't like the guy but I think Cedric Benson will be a steal at his current ADP. He plays in a weak division and he has a fairly tame schedule.

I also think Edge will bounce back this year and maybe crack the top 10 in RB scoring. I like the ARZ offensive potential and it should be a wide open division this year.

And in non-PPR leagues, I think a lot of people are overvaluing Reggie Bush. Deuce is still a primary part of the rushing game and I don't see how Bush can crack the top 10 RB in scoring without PPR. He would need to get an extra 500 yards and at least 5 extra TDs to make up for no PPR in order to keep pace with the top 10 RB's. It certainly seems possible, but I don't see that happening with Deuce in the picture.

 
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I don't think people realize just how good the Green Bay Def/ST was last year.

Sacks:

46 (4th)

INT:

23 (3rd)

Def TD:

5 (tied 2nd)

 
Revo said:
I think most fantasy owners are overlooking the addition of Brian Leonard to St Louis' backfield. No, he won't encroach on Jackson's rushing yardage, but he likely will take down that huge reception total. I believe Jackson is clearly worthy of the #2 spot -- but that said, I don't believe he'll come close to 90 catches again. 60-65 catches may be more like it.What situation do you believe most fantasy owners don't want to acknowledge?
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I think fantasy owners will "OVER"-Look situations... meaning they will put too much stock in things like Brian Leonard. I put the over under on Jacksons catches at 80.... You are putting too much stock in someone that hasn't proved he will be on the field...I do think people will be riding the end of last year, and put way too much stock in second halves of the season... only to cut ties with players midway through the season and see them explode after that... too many fantasy owners buy high and sell low... I think people will overlook the RB situation around the league... outside of LT and Jackson, I think the rest of the group is a crap shoot... of the next 8 RB's taken in each draft... 4 probally won't make the top 10... this year has more ? marks then any... between injury, coming off big years, splitting time, changing teams, and coaching changes... who knows...
 
Cixelsyd said:
Revo said:
I think most fantasy owners are overlooking the addition of Brian Leonard to St Louis' backfield. No, he won't encroach on Jackson's rushing yardage, but he likely will take down that huge reception total. I believe Jackson is clearly worthy of the #2 spot -- but that said, I don't believe he'll come close to 90 catches again. 60-65 catches may be more like it.
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I think fantasy owners will "OVER"-Look situations... meaning they will put too much stock in things like Brian Leonard. I put the over under on Jacksons catches at 80.... You are putting too much stock in someone that hasn't proved he will be on the field...
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I'll gladly take the under.While I understand your point with Leonard, don't forget the signing of McMichael and Bennet.
 
I see undervalued situations in Jacksonville and Carolina pretty much across the board with the exception of the Jags running game.

Regarding the Jags:

First, I'm probably one of the last people on the planet that believes Byron Leftwhich is the answer at QB. The learning curve has been steep for sure but I could see a Drew Brees type of development for the man this year where the light finally comes on. (No I'm not saying his stats can compare to Brees' '06 - just that this could be a big offseason leap for him from a game management point of view).

Second is the Jags schedule. Aside from Indy, Tennessee and Houston twice each - they also get the Chiefs and Saints as well. However one thing should be noted. The Jags have a tough fantasy playoff schedule this year. Weeks 14-16 (typical playoff weeks for the standard league) will be home vs. the Panthers, @ the Steelers and back home versus the Raiders. All Jags players could be very nice sell-high players to transition your team for the playoffs in re-draft leagues.

Third, (this one will make most people chuckle but I believe it's HUGE) - Rookie punter Adam Podlesh. In 2006 the Jags sat at dead-last in the NFL in net-punting average. Short punts set up short fields, short fields set up patient, "take what they give us" opposing offenses. This is a unit that ranked third in the league last season, despite losing its best pass rusher (Reggie Hayward), starting middle linebacker (Mike Peterson), starting weak-side linebacker (Pat Thomas) and starting strong safety (Donovin Darius) for most of the 2006 season. Mix in a punting unit that now will be to some degree better than dead last in the league? Jacksonville could be downright spooky playing on a short field this year.

Regarding the Panthers:

Really the only thing that needs to be said is injuries were the name of te game up and down this O-line last year and who knows how healthy DeAngelo was on any given week. Historically this team has had a really solid rushing attack (with very pedestrian talent at RB) and other than last year they've been a team that produces at least a fantasy-relevent #2 WR and borderline fantasy starter at QB. I just see '06 being the exception to the rule for them.

 
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I see FF'ers overlooking Strength of Schedule

Of course, SoS shouldn't really factor into the top studs (i.e. taking Jamal Lewis over LT because of SoS). But to overlook SoS when it comes to equal value middle-of-the-road players is a mistake. For example, Jay Cutler and Eli Manning are ranked as QB's 15 & 16 on this site. If Eli had the hardest SoS in the NFL for rushing, but the easiest for passing, and it was vice versa for Cutler, who would you take?

 
The Jags O will explode to next level (see Saints last year). Carolina's healthy OL (and their schedule) puts S. Smith ahead of the other big 6.

 
crimsonrebel said:
Anthony Borbely said:
War Ensemble said:
Block said:
I think many owners are downright delusional about Frank Gore and MJD. Neither will approach what they did last year.
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Agreed. :)
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I don't see anything that tells me Gore will not have a monster year.
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I see him with a broken hand and having had several semi serious injuries during his college and pro career. Hard to have a monster year if youre not even in uniform.
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A broken hand doesn't worry me at all. Predicting injuries is crazy.
 
I think Phillips will use his depth in Dallas and mess up some FF guys plans. They're pretty deep at some positions. So I think Phillips manages the Boys with the notion of trying somehow to keep them fresh for the playoffs. Backup LBs, young WRs, a safety other than Roy, Barber, once a game seems to be "in hand" I could see him getting his backups in esp since they're quite good for backups.

 
elcohiba said:
The Jags O will explode to next level (see Saints last year). Carolina's healthy OL (and their schedule) puts S. Smith ahead of the other big 6.
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InterestingI think Del Rio will always want to be a power O and wish he could run 60 times a game.Interesting to see a different point of view
 
crimsonrebel said:
Anthony Borbely said:
War Ensemble said:
Block said:
I think many owners are downright delusional about Frank Gore and MJD. Neither will approach what they did last year.
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Agreed. :goodposting:
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I don't see anything that tells me Gore will not have a monster year.
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I see him with a broken hand and having had several semi serious injuries during his college and pro career. Hard to have a monster year if youre not even in uniform.
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But does his injury history make someone "downright delusional" who's high on him? That's a strong statement to make. I see some things that could actually point to BETTER numbers (potential emergence of Vernon Davis, DJax's presence and possible continued development of Alex Smith). Don't get me wrong, those are several "if's" and I'm not insinuating he will be healthy an entire season but if he is, I don't think he'll just approach the numbers he put up last year - he'll surpass them.
 
Gore's hand, a couple fumbles and Mich Robinson being a top 15 RB

 
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Cadillac Williams getting an Oline and QB.

Gore's unexpected breakout that will probably improve.

The natural ability David Boston has if he decides to use it.

Antonio Bryant will be signed and will be a good player.

 
Many of the confusing situations, people are ignoring or don't want to bother with. These are the places to pan for your late round/early year WW gold.

Tenn RB

MInn WR

Tenn WR

Car RB

Jax WR

OAK WR

To name a few.

 
Anthony Borbely said:
crimsonrebel said:
Anthony Borbely said:
War Ensemble said:
Block said:
I think many owners are downright delusional about Frank Gore and MJD. Neither will approach what they did last year.
Click to expand...
Agreed. :lmao:
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I don't see anything that tells me Gore will not have a monster year.
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I see him with a broken hand and having had several semi serious injuries during his college and pro career. Hard to have a monster year if youre not even in uniform.
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A broken hand doesn't worry me at all. Predicting injuries is crazy.
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I agree. Speculating injuries is a non-sensical way to monitor and predict a players seasonal output. As for production, I do not expect as many rushing yards and most likely a few less catches (50) but there is no question he puts up more TD's this year. He wasnt the goal line back for approx. 10 games last year. this year he is the unquestioned goal line recipient of those opprtunities. i see 14-16 tds in the crystal ball. :thumbup:as for the original question. I think L. Booker could see some additional work if ronnie struggles at all. maybe even some goal line work, maybe? I still love ronnie brown, nonetheless....
 
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Anthony Borbely said:
A broken hand doesn't worry me at all. Predicting injuries is crazy.
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It bugs me that their seems to be little reason to rush him and he wasn't resting/letting that broken hand heal. Of course I'm no doc but I don't think it was healed up in a day or two or however little he was out. I do feel like whenever this kinda thing has happenned in the past it becomes a nagging injury all season long.I'm not saying Gore will stink or anything like that it's just...I just don't see why they didn't rest him more
 
Bri said:
Anthony Borbely said:
A broken hand doesn't worry me at all. Predicting injuries is crazy.
Click to expand...
It bugs me that their seems to be little reason to rush him and he wasn't resting/letting that broken hand heal. Of course I'm no doc but I don't think it was healed up in a day or two or however little he was out. I do feel like whenever this kinda thing has happenned in the past it becomes a nagging injury all season long.I'm not saying Gore will stink or anything like that it's just...I just don't see why they didn't rest him more
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really? With who?

 
Dirty Weasel said:
I see FF'ers overlooking Strength of Schedule
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I take the opposite approcah and say that people look too much into SOS.There's so much unpredictability (i.e., seemingly easy matchups turn out to be tough ones, and vice versa), while so much changes year to year in terms of how defenses perform.

 
I think offensive lines in general.

I'm not as high on Marshawn Lynch as I am on some other RBs/rookies simply because the Buffalo Bills O-Line has been so poor.

In the past 3 seasons...

2006: 3.70 YPC as a team. McGahee - 3.8 YPC.

2005: 3.75 YPC as a team. McGahee - 3.8 YPC.

2004: 3.88 YPC as a team. McGahee - 4.0 YPC.

Maybe I'm putting too much stock in the first pre-season game but the Bills O-Line didn't impress me much in the run game when Lynch was in.

 
Dirty Weasel said:
I see FF'ers overlooking Strength of ScheduleOf course, SoS shouldn't really factor into the top studs (i.e. taking Jamal Lewis over LT because of SoS). But to overlook SoS when it comes to equal value middle-of-the-road players is a mistake. For example, Jay Cutler and Eli Manning are ranked as QB's 15 & 16 on this site. If Eli had the hardest SoS in the NFL for rushing, but the easiest for passing, and it was vice versa for Cutler, who would you take?
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Cutler.The Giants are imploding before the season has even started.
 
Alot of FF GMs overlook the old guys in redraft. And I'm not saying this from a high and mighty position, I'm just as guilty.

I've stayed away from Joey Galloway / Mushin Muhammed / Rod Smith / Issac Bruce for the past 4-5 seasons !

And all those years these guys finished WAY higher in point totals than the young bucks I took. Sexy picks aren't always the answer.

What amazes me the most recently is how Caddy could be abandoned so quickly and how Gore can be crowned so soon.

Gore is great when hes healthy but so are alot of other guys ! In inaugural dynasty's and such , I'd be scared as hell to take Gore as my RB1, I'm not saying he wont pan out but we need to see some consistency 1st right?

Caddy on the other hand seems to be held solely responsible for the TB implosion last year

 
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thehornet said:
Bri said:
Anthony Borbely said:
A broken hand doesn't worry me at all. Predicting injuries is crazy.
Click to expand...
It bugs me that their seems to be little reason to rush him and he wasn't resting/letting that broken hand heal. Of course I'm no doc but I don't think it was healed up in a day or two or however little he was out. I do feel like whenever this kinda thing has happenned in the past it becomes a nagging injury all season long.I'm not saying Gore will stink or anything like that it's just...I just don't see why they didn't rest him more
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really? With who?
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which players have been rushed back from an injury?
 
BigSteelThrill said:
Block said:
I think many owners are downright delusional about Frank Gore and MJD. Neither will approach what they did last year.
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:moneybag: MJD yesterday: 5 touches = 50 yards.
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Excellent barometer to use there.Seriously though, Jones-Drew, with Taylor there will not duplicate what he did last year. Not even come within 10% of what he did last year point wise which will mean he will not outproduce his average draft position.I think fantasy football owners are not giving the supposed bottom teams more credit with fantasy production.Favre and Drive will be top 15 in their categories.Dunn never gets enough credit but will put up solid numbers.Benson will surprise this year out of the Bears backfield.Branch in Seattle will surpass where he is going in drafts.I am leery of Dallas because it is Wade Phillips. What has he produced as a coach previously fantasy wise?
 
It is excellent. It shows what he did last year, this year.

And that is make mega yardage (and score TDs) on limited touches.

He will do more of the same. If you dont recognize that, you will be missing out.

I think a situation that people are overlooking is just how dynamic Drew really is.

Heck, I think I will regret not taking him because I will overlook him...

because of all the side talk, even though it doesnt change what he is fully capable of doing.

The cream always rises and yet you still cant get that darn horse to drink the water.

 
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BigSteelThrill said:
Block said:
I think many owners are downright delusional about Frank Gore and MJD. Neither will approach what they did last year.
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:goodposting: MJD yesterday: 5 touches = 50 yards.
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3 touches, 7 yards. The 43 receiving are for Matt Jones (M. Jones), not M. Jones-Drew. I was confused too.That being said, I like the Jax offense and MJD as well. If he's going as RB 15-18, I think that he is being overlooked.Benson is being overlooked as well. He should be RB 10-12.
 
DawnBTVS said:
I think offensive lines in general.I'm not as high on Marshawn Lynch as I am on some other RBs/rookies simply because the Buffalo Bills O-Line has been so poor.In the past 3 seasons...2006: 3.70 YPC as a team. McGahee - 3.8 YPC.2005: 3.75 YPC as a team. McGahee - 3.8 YPC.2004: 3.88 YPC as a team. McGahee - 4.0 YPC.Maybe I'm putting too much stock in the first pre-season game but the Bills O-Line didn't impress me much in the run game when Lynch was in.
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It was two carries.
 
gheemony said:
BigSteelThrill said:
Block said:
I think many owners are downright delusional about Frank Gore and MJD. Neither will approach what they did last year.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: MJD yesterday: 5 touches = 50 yards.
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3 touches, 7 yards. The 43 receiving are for Matt Jones (M. Jones), not M. Jones-Drew. I was confused too.That being said, I like the Jax offense and MJD as well. If he's going as RB 15-18, I think that he is being overlooked.Benson is being overlooked as well. He should be RB 10-12.
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Excellent catch. :thumbup: It gave Drew the live player updates. playbyplay shows just Jones, not Jones-Drew.
 
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ClownDogs said:
Challenge Everything said:
Seriously though, Jones-Drew, with Taylor there will not duplicate what he did last year. Not even come within 10% of what he did last year point wise which will mean he will not outproduce his average draft position.
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IIRC, wasn't Taylor there last year too? Why will anything change??????
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Greg Jones. This isn't a two headed beast, its a three headed monster. Greg Jones is the player that is being overlooked in Jacksonville. He is going to steal 2 -3 TDs from MJD and that all it takes for him to be a worthwhile, but not quite 2nd round RB. Touchdowns in this situation are notoriously hard to predict and thats the basis of alot of his value. Those 3 TD losses means he has to add 200 yards to his already excellent totals. And he is going to be extremely inconsistent (which is why I love him for draftmasters type leagues), one game 160 yards with 7 catches and 3 touhdowns next week 3 touches. Can this happen to a backup running back without an injury to Fred Taylor? If Fragile Freddy has a significant preseason injury, MJD is top 5, but without one???
 
Some great points. I for one am not that impressed with the RB crop this year. I have the 4th pick and am considering Manning there mainly because I think he will be a far better producer than the RB's ranked 4-10. Last season Cadillac Williams was a concensus top ten back & I drafted him at 9. Sure as hell wished I would've taken Manning there instead. Don't overlook talent and a great player regardless of position.

 
One thing I think people are overlooking is the possibility that Bradley overtakes Berrian and/or Muhammad in Chicago. I thought Bradley was better than Berrian two years ago, and he could still be better today. Muhammad is older, so who knows.

 
Block said:
One thing I think people are overlooking is the possibility that Bradley overtakes Berrian and/or Muhammad in Chicago. I thought Bradley was better than Berrian two years ago, and he could still be better today. Muhammad is older, so who knows.
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Lovie Smith said today that Bradley is line to get more opportunities for Rex Grossman to overthrow him.
 
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