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What to expect from Mark Ingram upon return from suspension? (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Curious what y’all think will shake out in NOS after week 4. 

I know it’s only week 3, but that would seem to be a good time to think about it. 

Is he a target to buy? To sell? 

Will he be business as usual from last year, or start in Payton’s doghouse? 

Is the tough saints schedule a concern for anyone? How will his return impact Kamara? 

I considered posting this in the “buy low / sell high” topic, but given the situation, I figured it was worthy of its own conversation.   :shrug:

note: this isn’t an assistant coach question. It’s intended to be a discussion. I have Ingram on one roster & don’t plan on buying or selling.

 

Interseptopus

Footballguy
He's better than Gillislee, and Gillislee is getting roughly 33% of the carries. Kamara is not doing too well on the ground (3.6 ypc), and that isn't really his strength anyways- he's way more effective through the air

I'd expect him to get >50% of the ground work depending how well he is performing. I can't imagine Kamara continuing to get 67% at that YPC unless it improves. 

 
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menobrown

Footballguy
The offense is more one dimensional without him then I anticipated and if I had some concern of Kamara's role growing at expense of Ingram's I don't any longer. I think they would very much like to return to the formula they used last year.

Now, and I'd say the same thing about Edelman, he took PED's for a reason and always some concern that you might see a reduction in performance without them.

 

Team Smokin'

Footballguy
I'd say business as usual when Ingram returns. Saints are a better team with him in the game. Low-mid range RB 1. I targeted him and own him in all my 3 leagues. I have Edelman in 2 and not that it matters, but I also have Cooks in all 3.

I will be psyched to plug in Ingram and forget it when he returns.

Ingram helps everyone in NO from Brees to the D. Kamara benefits too! Thomas? Well, his TD production prolly takes a dip some?

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
The offense is more one dimensional without him then I anticipated and if I had some concern of Kamara's role growing at expense of Ingram's I don't any longer. I think they would very much like to return to the formula they used last year.
That was my thought preseason - Peyton came out and said Kamara’s role wouldn’t change, and then they went out and signed Glee, which supported that. 

And it seems their ground game has been sluggish without Ingram. 

Now, and I'd say the same thing about Edelman, he took PED's for a reason and always some concern that you might see a reduction in performance without them.
Possible, absolutely. But Ingram looked pretty electric in the preseason from what I saw.

i was also encouraged that they deliberately used him more because of the pending suspension, because they said they wanted him as game-ready as possible.

i think they’ll use him for sure. I’m wondering if it’ll be identical to last year. My gut says they need him in that role. 

 

lod001

Footballguy
No idea what to expect. Anyone got some history on players who have sat for 3-4 games to start the season? I'm guessing he doesn't get a full workload (which is normally 1/2 the carries)

 

dipandglide

Footballguy
He's a great buy for contenders. He should be fresh and returns to a fantasy-friendly situation. He should have a high RB2 floor with some upside as we've seen the last few years.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
No idea what to expect. Anyone got some history on players who have sat for 3-4 games to start the season? I'm guessing he doesn't get a full workload (which is normally 1/2 the carries)
At least you know he didn’t get hurt weeks 1-4.  :shrug:

usage out of the gate is a question mark. Given the situation I’m going to assume he’s gonna work his butt off, and Peyton is the kind of coach who uses his weapons. 

I wouldn’t doubt he’d come out with his normal role, especially given the tough schedule. As some have pointed out - his role makes Kamara that much more effective/dangerous. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
He's a great buy for contenders. He should be fresh and returns to a fantasy-friendly situation. He should have a high RB2 floor with some upside as we've seen the last few years.
Agreed - and the NOS defense keeps getting exposed deep. Part of that would seem to be the Saints inability to control the clock, which keeps the defense on the field more. 

An effective Ingram should help give the defense a much-needed blow while the Saints have longer drives...in theory, of course.

 

Wise Old Owl

Footballguy
I think he probably slots back into his role from last year. My biggest concern is the amount of rushing TD's they had last year seemed way too high. Brees threw only 23 last year, easily his lowest total the whole time he has been in New Orleans. A big part of Ingram's value last year was his 12 TD's on the ground. I think he has difficulty repeating that TD pace even if he get's his workload from last year. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I think he probably slots back into his role from last year. My biggest concern is the amount of rushing TD's they had last year seemed way too high. Brees threw only 23 last year, easily his lowest total the whole time he has been in New Orleans. A big part of Ingram's value last year was his 12 TD's on the ground. I think he has difficulty repeating that TD pace even if he get's his workload from last year. 
One could also argue that more shots at the end zone = more DPI = more opportunity at the stripe? 

 

boltsfan

Footballguy
Think he will do well, likely similar to last year. Although he can come back after week 4, week 5 is a bye.

In dynasty, good trade if you can get a top 5 rookie pick for next year?

 

enyce

Footballguy
he will return to his role last year.  whether that means he puts up RB1 numbers like he did last year is to be seen but he isn't coming back to a diminished role.  it is clear that the Saints miss him through two weeks of the season.  The offense is not the same without him.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Possibly. I'm not down on Ingram and I think he's a great buy low right now. I just don't think he's going to come in and be on the same pace that got him rb5 in standard last year.
4 fewer games will do that for sure. 

If things break right & he resumes his 2017 role, I could see him top 15 ROS, with top 10 upside.   :shrug:

 

matttyl

Footballguy
Given that the bye is week 6, I don't think I can just start him week 5 right back from suspension....so it will be week 7 before he sniffs the starting lineup.  Hoping the best, and that he returns to last year's form, but the question is how much did PEDs contribute to that.

 

dcgangstas

Footballguy
The Saints really do miss Mark Ingram's ability to pound the rock between the tackles.  He adds a degree of physicality that Kamara doesn't.  

I'd expect around 12-15 touches (remember Ingram had 58 catches last year), while Kamara will get 16-19 touches.   There was a bit of a "changing of the guard" at the tail end of the 2017 season.  Kamara by far is the more explosive of the two, so he's going to get his catches and touches.   Payton will probably even have both of them on the field in certain situations, and position Kamara as a flanker to match up with a safety or a linebacker (pity the LB that has to cover that guy).  

I have both and will have both in my lineup.  

 
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TheDemon

Footballguy
Possibly. I'm not down on Ingram and I think he's a great buy low right now. I just don't think he's going to come in and be on the same pace that got him rb5 in standard last year.
I don't see how he's a buy low. His suspension was well-known before most drafts, and his outlook hasn't changed based on current conditions on the offense.

 

Wise Old Owl

Footballguy
I don't see how he's a buy low. His suspension was well-known before most drafts, and his outlook hasn't changed based on current conditions on the offense.
Maybe buy low isn't the right phrase but I do think now is the best time to acquire him. His value will only go up as we get closer to him returning. It is also possible that his owner started 0-2 and needs to make moves now and can't afford to wait 2 more weeks for his return. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I don't see how he's a buy low. His suspension was well-known before most drafts, and his outlook hasn't changed based on current conditions on the offense.
Some owners may:

• be desperate for a “start now” guy due to injury/poor drafting

• lose faith that Ingram will come back to form (we’ve heard this hinted at a time or two in here)

And it’s possibly a “buy low” compared to when he comes back and has a 12 carry/2 reception/100+ APY/1 TD game. 

If that happens, whatever price he was while suspended can only go up. 

Of course he could come back and lay an egg in his week 5 debut, which would then be a good buy-low opportunity as well. 

 

Truebluey

Footballguy
Kamara isn't doing much between the tackles.  Ingram will get fed and it will open things up altogether for the offense.
Interestingly, the stats indicate Kamara is doing well between the tackles. His DVOA is top 12 as a runner, and of course #1 among RBs as a receiver. 

What IS clear is that Sean doesn't want to over use him on the ground, and the guys they have used in Ingrams place have not been up to the job. The Daints NEED Ingram to get their running game ticking over, so I think you will see his typical workload immediately. I would have no hesitation starting him in Week 5.

 

PhantomJB

Footballguy
No way anyone's gonna pry him off my roster at this point. My whole draft strategy was oriented around acquiring him at a reasonable ADP.

In preseason Game 3 Ingram got both the entire 2nd and 4th series and looked great, so I have no concerns about usage relative to 2017 or performance coming off PED's.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
I'd say business as usual when Ingram returns. Saints are a better team with him in the game. Low-mid range RB 1. I targeted him and own him in all my 3 leagues. I have Edelman in 2 and not that it matters, but I also have Cooks in all 3.

I will be psyched to plug in Ingram and forget it when he returns.

Ingram helps everyone in NO from Brees to the D. Kamara benefits too! Thomas? Well, his TD production prolly takes a dip some?
Just a gut feeling, but I really don't see it happening this way.  He will for sure get a bunch of touches, but this just feels like a situation that isn't going to shake out the way people hoped.  I'd expect him to be a mid range RB2, but don't see last year's numbers being replicated.

With RBs this year, it's pretty much safe to say that the expected, consistent situation will not happen.

 

TheDemon

Footballguy
Maybe buy low isn't the right phrase but I do think now is the best time to acquire him. His value will only go up as we get closer to him returning. It is also possible that his owner started 0-2 and needs to make moves now and can't afford to wait 2 more weeks for his return. 
Fair enough. I can see how this and HS Guy's "start-now requirement" theory could have the Ingram owners potentially selling.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Just a gut feeling, but I really don't see it happening this way.  He will for sure get a bunch of touches, but this just feels like a situation that isn't going to shake out the way people hoped.  I'd expect him to be a mid range RB2, but don't see last year's numbers being replicated.

With RBs this year, it's pretty much safe to say that the expected, consistent situation will not happen.
Mid-range RB2/Flex is what I drafted him for as a floor, so if that’s the case I’ll be delighted at the ADP I took him (7.01)

anything better is a win. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Fair enough. I can see how this and HS Guy's "start-now requirement" theory could have the Ingram owners potentially selling.
Well; you can also see skepticism in other posts...whether it’s post-PED performance reduction, or usage concerns, maybe the Ingram owner feels this way too.

also remember that not everyone comes to the draft prepared. I guarantee some folks picked Ingram not knowing he was suspended. That happens every year. “Omg what a steal, I can believe you chumps didn’t take him rounds 3-4!”

hes suspended, dude. 

:doh:  

every year. 

 

Deamon

Footballguy
Mid-range RB2/Flex is what I drafted him for as a floor, so if that’s the case I’ll be delighted at the ADP I took him (7.01)

anything better is a win. 
Ya but I think his price (usually 5th round) had the suspension baked in already.  Those who drafted him there, likely would have taken him in the 2nd/3rd round without suspension.  You're hoping for a low end RB1 at that price tag.

You seemed to have gotten him much cheaper than most.  So for you, 7th round likely means you have 3 rbs on your roster ahead of him.  For most, he was their 3rd RB taken.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Ya but I think his price (usually 5th round) had the suspension baked in already.  Those who drafted him there, likely would have taken him in the 2nd/3rd round without suspension.  You're hoping for a low end RB1 at that price tag.

You seemed to have gotten him much cheaper than most.  So for you, 7th round likely means you have 3 rbs on your roster ahead of him.  For most, he was their 3rd RB taken.
He was my 3rd RB - I stacked up on WRs after Gurley.

 

voiceofunreason

Footballguy
He's better than Gillislee, and Gillislee is getting roughly 33% of the carries. Kamara is not doing too well on the ground (3.6 ypc), and that isn't really his strength anyways- he's way more effective through the air

I'd expect him to get >50% of the ground work depending how well he is performing. I can't imagine Kamara continuing to get 67% at that YPC unless it improves. 
So two games for Kamara at under 4 ypc means more than 16 games last year over 6? Ingram is a backup on his own team, it’s amazing how high he’s been ranked all year. I wouldn’t be comfortable with him as more than my rb3 at the most. You can’t even count on goaline work as Kamara has been very good there too.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
So two games for Kamara at under 4 ypc means more than 16 games last year over 6? Ingram is a backup on his own team, it’s amazing how high he’s been ranked all year. I wouldn’t be comfortable with him as more than my rb3 at the most. You can’t even count on goaline work as Kamara has been very good there too.
At least your user name is accurate. :lol:  

Ingram is ranked where he was because he’s an excellent running back. And he’s not the backup, he’s the thunder part of that committee.

He’s an effective short yardage runner & if he immediately slides into a role with 1/3 to 3/5 of the touches, he’s going to be worth every penny of his 5th round ADP. 

 

ILUVBEER99

Footballguy
I own Kamara and love him.  That said Ingram will likely take a similar role to last season.  Kamara is better when he's not running between the tackles 10 times a game.  Those are Ingram carries once he comes back.  Both can put up big numbers...just like they did last season.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
I posted this in the buy low/sell high thread. Posting it here because I see similar "He's a buy low..." comments.

As an Ingram owner you would have to come at me with a very strong offer. No way am I selling low on a guy I knew on draft day would not provide RoI until week 6 and drafted accordingly. Additionally I would not sell low when that guy would have been one of the first 12 RBs drafted without the suspension. Even more so when the Saints are, so far, averaging 2.9 ypc with Kamara leading the way at 3.6 ypc, which indicates (to me) that they will look to Ingram a lot to help bolster the running game when he returns.

No, he is not a buy low.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
I think Ingram will be in a 50:50 timeshare at worst.

However everyone needs to pump the breaks a little. The Saints still have two full games without him to see if Kamara can get his YPC up, it's not like he averaged 6.1 ypc in every game last year, he had six games with sub 4.0 ypc so let's not assume 3.6 is his ceiling.

Even so; if everything breaks right for Kamara, Ingram will get a heavy workload because Payton is a dynamic coach who will use his players in the role he envisions. They can both catch but clearly Kamara fits that role in the offense and will probably be used there primarily as he was last year.

Owner of both should expect a full blown timeshare and pray for a repeat of last season's efficiency.

 

Elevencents

Footballguy
I’m more worried about the defenses they are facing in the immediate weeks coming back. As a Kamara owner I am glad he has basically led me to 3 straight wins because I absolutely see a drop off after the bye. I think Ingram will still do well but I don’t see him repeating his numbers from last year. 

 

lsutigers

Footballguy
I’m more worried about the defenses they are facing in the immediate weeks coming back. As a Kamara owner I am glad he has basically led me to 3 straight wins because I absolutely see a drop off after the bye. I think Ingram will still do well but I don’t see him repeating his numbers from last year. 
This!  Redskins (top 10), Bye, Ravens, Vikings, Rams, Bengals (top 3), Eagles (no. 1).  Trying to unload him where possible. 

Personal update - traded Ingram and M. Goodwin for Drake and Edelman.

 
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