What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

What we learned after week 1 (1 Viewer)

Kittle may be the next TE to blossom. Between his chemistry with Garoppolo and the lack of quality wideouts (especially if Goodwin is sidelined), that might set up Kittle for a very nice season if he can stay healthy.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
shadyridr said:
Exactly why these threads end up being pointless. Fantasy foorball is such a week to week hobby its silly to make long term projections based on one week results. Its all matchups and injuries.
Click to expand...
The truth, as always, is in the middle.

Definitely true that matchups/injuries are huge dependencies to fantasy success, and WK1 over-reactions are a yearly occurrence.

That said, what separates successful GMs in this hobby are ones who are able to recognize trends and capitalize on them the earliest, and WK1 often does give good directional cues.

While you don't want to overcorrect for a small 1-game sample, fortune favors the bold who can separate anomaly from trend and act on it before others.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
The truth, as always, is in the middle.

Definitely true that matchups/injuries are huge dependencies to fantasy success, and WK1 over-reactions are a yearly occurrence.

That said, what separates successful GMs in this hobby are ones who are able to recognize trends and capitalize on them the earliest, and WK1 often does give good directional cues.

While you don't want to overcorrect for a small 1-game sample, fortune favors the bold who can separate anomaly from trend and act on it before others.
Click to expand...
Recognize trends is very important. This THREAD is useless because EVERYONE posts their opinion and perhaps only 2 or 3 of them will end up being true. Good luck figuring out which one. I'd love to look at last year's thread and see how many were true.

 
shadyridr said:
Recognize trends is very important. This THREAD is useless because EVERYONE posts their opinion and perhaps only 2 or 3 of them will end up being true. Good luck figuring out which one. I'd love to look at last year's thread and see how many were true.
Click to expand...
Isn't that true of every thread on this board? And pretty much anything written in regards to FF?

Idea of it all is to collate a diversity of views, look critically and objectively at the drivers behind the opinions you are seeing, and make your best informed guess as to the moves you need to make to continue to improve your team and win games. That's pretty much the essence of this hobby. 

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Isn't that true of every thread on this board? And pretty much anything written in regards to FF?

Idea of it all is to collate a diversity of views, look critically and objectively at the drivers behind the opinions you are seeing, and make your best informed guess as to the moves you need to make to continue to improve your team and win games. That's pretty much the essence of this hobby. 
Click to expand...
Yep, that's why I read these threads. Nothing is gospel(maybe stats)-pick up some tidbits here & there & make some moves in trying to best the other teams in your league.  That's about it & have some fun along the way.

 
kyoun1e said:
No they are not.

Howard significantly out touched Cohen. Furthermore, Howard caught 5 passes!

My takeaway is this: CHI offense looks more dynamic, the defense is improved, and those two factors combined are going to increase Howard's value.
Click to expand...
This. If anyone only watched the first few series of the game, they may even say Cohen had the upper hand on touches. Howard was game planned as a blocker and a decoy early on, even on the trubisky's td run. but that's just smart game planning by Nagy imo to tell the defenders, hey focus on Cohen!

Having said all this, don't think Howard will be a true bell cow stat wise and probably will not perform to his ADP as a result. He looked good, but this offense is definitely more dynamic and will not need to be one dimensional. they're gonna be fun to watch and Howard will get his touches enough to be a RB2 as a floor.

tough loss there bears fans, that could have eliminated another 35% of my survivor pool with Saints going down.

 
shadyridr said:
Exactly why these threads end up being pointless. Fantasy foorball is such a week to week hobby its silly to make long term projections based on one week results. Its all matchups and injuries.
Click to expand...
Perhaps. But they are really fun to read and participate in. Especially after waiting the whole off season. 

 
shadyridr said:
Recognize trends is very important. This THREAD is useless because EVERYONE posts their opinion and perhaps only 2 or 3 of them will end up being true. Good luck figuring out which one. I'd love to look at last year's thread and see how many were true.
Click to expand...
Here are some I found actually posted on this messageboard

Some that were pretty good predictions

  • It surprised me that ADP and Lacy couldn't muster anything for one game against their old teams.  Drop drop drop.
  • If the Eagles can get any kind of decent play from their defensive backfield they're gonna be a handful.
  • Ty Montgomerys usage... I don't see how he stays healthy with that usage.
  • I know they played a terrible Saints D but I misread/misjudged the fantasy landscape in MIN....in a big way....their players are better than I thought they were (improved)...I have to let go of some of the old leftover feelings about certain teams being a fantasy wasteland.....those two WR's are legit....
  • there is a reason Dalton doesn't get much fantasy respect....he may have some big games that even out his stats at the end of the year....but it's really hard to have confidence in him as a weekly play....
  • matt ryan will be qb2 with Brady and Brees not yet done but older guys dealing with a very athletic nfl
  • I don't think Cincy will be able to keep Mixon off the field for too long, so maybe he'll break out as early as today.
  • Kamara. if the usage continues the way it did last week, it is a matter of time before he blows up.
  • Austin Sefarian Jenkins. Looks to be starting TE for the Jets after one more week on suspension if you are in need. 
  • Just throwing darts but I'm watching James Conner in Pitt. If (IF) Bell gets hurt Tomlin doesn't seem to change his RB usage (many/most coaches would switch to more of a RBBC) making Conner one of the higher usage prospects.
(Didn't come to fruition until this year - but it was a nice prediction)

  • i just grabbed george kittle.rookie tight ends rarely make much noise on the waiver wire so i doubt you'd have to spend TOO MUCH to get him after this week.but... there's a very good chance he's cheaper today than he will be next tuesday/wednesday. he played almost every snap in week 1 and 6 targets is nothing to scoff at for a TE. he's also a SPARQ freak who the team really, really loved all thru camp. if you've got the roster spot in a deep league, he's not a bad speculative add.
Click to expand...
Some "meh" predictions:

  • AP is done
  • bmarsh is done
 (I wouldn't have wanted these guys in 2017, but "done" was too harsh.)

  • If MIN OL can keep this up, then Bradford becomes a top 15 QB and Diggs, Cook, Thielen and Rudolph should all have solid years.
(The "Bradford" part was wrong, but the rest was good)

  • Corey Clement of PHI. Blount is a mule, Smallwood is a dunce at pass pro, and Pumphrey has done nothing impressive. I posted a few weeks ago that no Eagles RB was worth owning because it was a death time share but it's possible they're all so terrible (other than Sproles' 5-10 touches a game) that someone like Clement emerges as the only guy trying.
  • Alex Collins was just signed to the Ravens 53 man roster.  He's just RB depth, but you never know.
  • Corey Davis turned into a pumpkin. I think he will have more good days than bad, but I think it was a heavy dose of realism with him for his owners. I was disappointed I missed out, still am, but I think those WR1/2 expectations were tempered a little bit back to WR3/flex
  • TEN lost but they could very easily win the division......  (close)
  • Perine is a good one in redraft, assuming he wasn't drafted. If the Redskins look bad on offense again, they're going to have to think about making the move away from Kelley. It's only a matter of time.
Click to expand...
And of course, some missed predictions:

  • this is Eli and ben's last season
  • Terrence Williams may be a top 25 wr
  • Randall Cobb looked really good.  If he stays healthy...it will be inconsisent FF wise week to week between he and Adams with sprinkles of big games from Bennett IMO.  Jordy gets his.
  • it's fun to make fun of CLE.....but they are going to be competitive every week I think....
  • I think Corey Davis will end up being a steal for the way he fell in many drafts....
  • I like Kendall Wright to have a decent bounceback year.
  • JJ Nelson is a guy with an opportunity.  I can't see the ARI run game being leaned on like it was.  And their second best receiver is gone with DJ out.  
  • I like Dwayne Washington, and he'll have his days, as might Theo Riddick, but Washington is the thumper, and for this season at least, the Lions are committed to using him in a variety of ways.  I don't think 10 touchdowns are too big of a stretch for him (nor do I think that number will be a stretch for Kenny Golladay).  
Click to expand...

 
Underachievers said:
There's really no format that I would take Bell over Connor right now.   

Connor is more valuable than Bell in  redraft simply because Bell is sitting out and it could be for most of the season.

It's pretty much set in stone now that Connor will be the lead RB in Pittsburgh even after this season since  Bell will be gone and also 31 years old.  So that makes Connor more valuable in keeper/dynasty also.
Click to expand...
Bell is aging 5 years in one calendar year. Is he taking reverse PEDs?

 
I learned that in no way can I discount ARod no matter what. Also I learned that GB D and O will phone it in until the season is on the line. Seems Worrisome in some way that still makes you pick them at home but wonder. 

 
That just because the QB you are playing gets knocked out and carted off into the locker room, that doesn't mean he won't come back to destroy your fantasy team.

Aaron Rodgers is my fantasy kryptonite.

 
Skoo said:
That just because the QB you are playing gets knocked out and carted off into the locker room, that doesn't mean he won't come back to destroy your fantasy team.

Aaron Rodgers is my fantasy kryptonite.
Click to expand...
Didn't play against him this week  

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
they always start the season and games slow......the coaches don't have this team prepared.....ever....
Click to expand...
How do you prepare for multiple dropped TDs? Rivers has to have the NFL lead for most touchdowns dropped over his career. You can only hit your receivers in the hands so many times before you just have an aneurysm.  

 
FF Ninja said:
How do you prepare for multiple dropped TDs? Rivers has to have the NFL lead for most touchdowns dropped over his career. You can only hit your receivers in the hands so many times before you just have an aneurysm.  
Click to expand...
He has a rv that let's him watch film to and fro LA ..he also has a team of paramedics on stand by to sedate him after every throw. 

 
1) TE is going to be a big mess this year, unless you have Gronk.  And even then, you have to hope that Gronk stays healthy.

2) BUF is actually worse that I thought.  Sorry for anyone drafting McCoy.

3) The 1st 4 draft slots were considered "king" this year.  Doesn't look it right now.  Bell is still holding out.  DJ and Zeke look like their respective offenses are going to make it hard for them to deliver top 4 value.

4) While I am optimistic about the Bears improving on offense, they still have a lot of work to do.

5) Matt Ryan may be the most overrated QB in the NFL.

6) Regression.....what regression?  Kamara is a flat out stud in a perfect situation.  Would not be surprised if he's the top RB in fantasy this year in PPR leagues. 

 
zamboni said:
Kittle may be the next TE to blossom. Between his chemistry with Garoppolo and the lack of quality wideouts (especially if Goodwin is sidelined), that might set up Kittle for a very nice season if he can stay healthy.
Click to expand...
I read that he dropped an 80 yard TD. If he had caught that, he'd be a hot commodity right now. 

 
Lamar Miller never topped 75 yards last year.  Looked great yesterday and should have been given 100 and a TD.  That blue walk in was bs after lamar ran them all the way down the field.

 
SCT said:
Lamar Miller never topped 75 yards last year.  Looked great yesterday and should have been given 100 and a TD.  That blue walk in was bs after lamar ran them all the way down the field.
Click to expand...
Stayed away cuz of last year. Figures.

 
FF Ninja said:
I read that he dropped an 80 yard TD. If he had caught that, he'd be a hot commodity right now. 
Click to expand...
ya, he dropped it, not sure he would have scored but probably I guess. Very next play Jimmy through the pick 6. Between that and the fumble on the 1 yard line the game would have been much closer.

 
What I learned:

Le'Veon Bell loses an $865,000 game check each week he sits out.  Good googly moogly that's a lot of scratch

Khalil Mack should never drop back into coverage

Mitch Trubisky has a lot to learn about being an NFL QB.  Given that he was taken ahead of Mahomes and Watson, his lack of development to this point has to be troubling for Bears fans.

Saints Defense much worse than was thought going into the season.

All the miles have taken a toll on Greg Olsen

Tyreek Hill might be the most underrated player in the NFL.  I don't think casual fans (non-ff players) have caught up with him yet.

 
mikec171 said:
Perhaps. But they are really fun to read and participate in. Especially after waiting the whole off season. 
Click to expand...
Agreed they are fun to read but they are fairly useless.

loompa17 said:
Here are some I found actually posted on this messageboard

Some that were pretty good predictions

Some "meh" predictions:

And of course, some missed predictions:
Click to expand...
Somehow I doubt these are all from the week 1 thread of last year.

 
fightingillini said:
1) TE is going to be a big mess this year, unless you have Gronk.  And even then, you have to hope that Gronk stays healthy.
Click to expand...
Agreed. 

It's a one game sample size, but it looks like Mahomes is going to funnel the offense more toward Hill than Kelce to a greater degree than Alex Smith did.

On a positive TE note, Jordan Reed had more receiving yards than any Washington WR.  If Reed stays healthy (huge "if") he could be a steal at the price people were getting him at in drafts.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
One thing I re-learned. People will overreact to week 1 and be unable to distinguish a bad week from an actual red flag. Many of these "things learned" so far wouldn't draw a mention if they happened in week 8.

A sample of things that were said after week 1 last year...

  • No Saints RB will be worth owning. Their offense looks terrible and they'll all vulture from each other
  • Sam Bradford is a QB 1 this year
  • Mike Gillislee is the back to own in NE
Click to expand...


shadyridr said:
Exactly why these threads end up being pointless. Fantasy foorball is such a week to week hobby its silly to make long term projections based on one week results. Its all matchups and injuries.
Click to expand...
Both of you are correct that many of these predictions are incorrect, but there ARE things we can learn. For instance, often (not always) week 1 snap shares are indicative of future snap shares. 

 
- LeVeon Bell costs himself a lot of money in the future by sitting out.  Steelers proved it was next man up in this case to an extent.  James Conner is a top 10 fantasy player in any format while Bell is out.  I don't see him getting much more than 5yr $70mil in the offseason, in which case he is already costing himself money.

- I am still not sold on Mahomes as an every week starter.  He was 8/20 for 87 yards when you take Hill's stats off of the box score.  Don't get me wrong, he looked great at times, has an awesome arm, but also missed some easy throws, didn't ever get too pressured, and they played with a lead.  I would like to see him getting hit and having to throw to win a game before I put him in a QB1 category.  Hunt splitting carries was a little worrisome, but he's still a borderline RB1 if that is the case.

- Dalvin Cook looked explosive.  His most impressive carry might have come on his fumble, when he exploded through the hole and broke through the 49ers run defense.  He will absolutely be a RB1 if heathy.

- The Jags are huge favorites to win AFC South.  Fournette still has durability issues but is easily a top 10 RB when on the field.

- Giants have to be happy with the skill playmakers on offense, all looked good.

- Cowboys looked to be the worse team in the NFC East, but their defense played pretty well.  Redskins looked better than I anticipated on both sides of the ball.  Jordan Reed is a top 3 TE when healthy.

- Winston's days are limited in TB.  Most surprising score of the day, Kamara will be an absolute monster these first four weeks with Ingram suspended.

- Watson showed a lot of rust and uncertainty but played against the best coach in his first week back, give the Texans offense some time before you panic.

- Seahawks defense is in fact a shell of itself, and the offense relies too heavily on Wilson.  Rams are huge favorites to win division, 49ers are 2nd.

- No player on the Bills offense except McCoy has any fantasy value. 

- Although K Stills put up numbers, it was without Parker and production came from a huge play.  He has value, but this game might have been a smoking mirror.

- Bengals and Ravens are better than we think, NFC North might be competitive this year.  Ravens WRs actually have some fantasy value.  Mixon and Green looked like good picks as well.

- Chargers will never change, they always seems to get down big and early and fight rest of the year to make up lost ground.  So many drops and mistakes.  This bodes well for Rivers, who will likely need to be in the hurry up or in passing situations.

- Eagles, Titans, Browns, and Packers have talented running backs but could turn into a case of running back roulette where you don't know which one will get the points for the week.

- Browns are still the Browns, as only they can end a losing streak by not winning a game.  Gordon and Landry are the players to own for fantasy purposes on this offense, not their running backs.

 
Despite a loss, I learned Chicago's offense will score points, and Nagy calls a good game. They will get a lot better too as Trubisky develops.

 
Drew Brees is back to absolute top 3 QB, and may be #1. The Saints D forced one punt.  At home.

Mahomes is the real deal from an NFL perspective.  The game was a bit of a mirage as teams will now game plan for those 2 1 yard shovel passes

Arizona is just bad.  Bradford was terrible

Garrapolo is human and got careless with the ball but I saw some absolute elite throws.  He will still be very good.

The Bills - no explanation necessary

TJ Yeldon is not being talked about enough.  Looks very good when Fournette is out

Travis Benjamin should be cut.  Today

 
*** My week one overreactions ***

Guys I stayed away from due to their ADP in almost all my leagues and I'm glad I did:

McCoy, Graham, Kelce, Royce Freeman, Watkins, Tre Burton, McCaffrey, Deshaun Watson.

Guys I avoided in most leagues due to their ADP and it was a mistake:

Tyreek, Cobb, Mike Evans, Julio, Theilen.

Guys I drafted in multiple leagues and that was the right call:

Mixon, Doyle, Michael Thomas, Luck, Brees, Stills, Kittle.

Guys I drafted in a lot of leagues that are already concerning me:

Drake, Sony Michel, Corey Davis, Kyle Rudolph.

 
Drake will be okay. This week was basically his floor and he still almost hit 10 ppg in ppr. As long as you got him at RB2 prices or lower, I think he's going to meet or exceed his draft slot in ppr.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Rotoworld posted the info in one of their player blurbs. 
Click to expand...
Hmmm.  Is it possible he just was never to be a part of the game plan?  Decoy?  I don't see how he would only garner 3 targets otherwise.  Even if QB/WR chemistry takes time, that would relate more to incomplete passes, not lack of targets.  Idk.  Just a hold for now.

 
EBF said:
Drake will be okay. This week was basically his floor and he still almost hit 10 ppg in ppr. As long as you got him at RB2 prices or lower, I think he's going to meet or exceed his draft slot in ppr.
Click to expand...
I agree. I don't regret drafting Drake at all.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Ministry of Pain
Tell the Sharks what your team's Biggest Needs are going into the off season and NFL Draft '25
Replies
17
Views
625
dickey moe
dickey moe
JohnnyU
Your thoughts on the 2026 Wide Receiver Class?
Replies
3
Views
168
JohnnyU
JohnnyU
Joe Bryant
  • Poll Poll
Las Vegas Setting Lines - What they think will happen vs Equal bets on both sides
Replies
42
Views
786
Leroy Hoard
Leroy Hoard

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top