What's the Deal with Mewelde Moore? :) (1 Viewer)

[Eminence]

Granted I've only seen him play in limited action the year he started 4 games for the Steelers. But he honestly hasn't put up BAD stats anytime he's played.

http://www.nfl.com/players/meweldemoore/profile?id=MOO557284

He's 5,11 and 218. Which fits the build for starting back.

What's the deal here?

 

[Touchdown There]

I am confused on this also. Mendenhall was one of my well-thought out sleepers in the 2009 drafting season. He had a total of 7 rushes for 45 yards in his first three games. Tomlin benches him for week 3, so the natural thing to do is drop Mendenhall and target Mewelde Moore.

You know how this turns out. Tomlin gives Mendenhall 29 carries for a bazillion yards in week 4 and has a stellar year overall. Why would Tomlin do this considering Moore was just as productive?

 

[Sweet Love]

There is a thread somewhere around here as to why Moore has/has not been granted an opportunity to start. Some feel he just randomly fell through the cracks while others (like myself) feel that for all the coaches he has had over the years, he would have been given the rock as a bell-cow at some point if something was really "there". In three years we may be having this conversation about Jerome Harrison; but if you want a real conspiracy theory, look no further than Aaron Brooks. In seven years, he tossed 123 TDs, rushed for 13Tds and 1500+ yards. At one point of that 7 year career, he tossed for at least 21 TDs and 3500 yards four years. He was out of the league by 30 after spending one year with the Raiders. I am not saying he is God's gift to the QB position, but how a guy like that could be out of the league w/o any legal issues or real "locker room cancer" issues, is just beyond weird.

 

[purestrength]

I haven't been drafting MM this year because coaches don't seem to have major plans for him at the moment. But if I find out he's going to start this season/next season/whenever, I'll jump through hoops to obtain him.

Bottom line: Mewelde Moore produces when he starts.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

So are we agreeing that we don't know what to do with this guy to date?

 

[David Yudkin]

Link to old thread on this same topic

 

[Chaka]

With Willie Parker out of Pittsburgh I like MM as a 3rd down back with great potential as Mendenhall's backup.

I like Mendenhall but I don't see why he is a mortal lock to repeat last year's numbers (I think he is going way too high in drafts right now). Take Willie Colon (tee hee) out of the picture and we could easily see Mendenhall's production drop off.

A guy like MM seems to offer more upside this year than in years past.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

Link to old thread on this same topic

DavidIncredibly not helpful, last post is from July 09 - might as well been a link to the Arabic translation of Moby ****. Situation is very different now with Mendenhall being a consensus top 10-12 rb, no Big Ben and lots of questions about the O-line.

We would be interested in your opinion though.

 

[SSOG]

Mewelde Moore is Jerious Norwood North. Plain and simple.

The problem with fantasy owners is that we often just look at rate stats and project out based on them, assuming they're an accurate measure of skill. The truth is that health is a skill, too. You could take all of ADP, CJ3, MJD, and Steven Jackson's talent and put it in the body of an RB with osteoporosis, and that RB would be worthless at an NFL level. Flat-out worthless. He'd have one spectacular carry, and then an NFL safety would come up at the end, lay wood, and break every bone in his body. Durability is a physical attribute every bit as much as speed and change-of-direction ability. Speed is just a measure of the strength of certain muscles. Durability is the measure of the strength of bones and tendons. I don't know why everyone is insistent on treating them as radically different things (like one thing is a skill and one thing is just random chance). As I said, health is as much a skill as speed or leaping ability.

NFL coaches are, by and large, very good at what they do. The NFL is a competitive marketplace, so the 32 coaches in the league likely almost all reside among the top 50 or 100 coaches in the entire nation. They know what they're doing. With that backdrop, keep in mind that three RADICALLY DIFFERENT coaching regimes have had Mewelde Moore (Mike Tice, Brad Childress, Mike Tomlin). Each one of them has seen MeMo go out and be the most effective RB on the entire roster... and each one of them has decided, independently of the others, to limit his usage. The rest of the NFL saw how effective MeMo was, yet no coach was willing to offer him big money to sign him (as opposed to Michael Turner, who was as effective in as limited of a role and who then secured a major-money contract with Atlanta). These coaches obviously know something that we, the casual fans, do not. That something might be that MeMo wears down easily. It might be that he's not durable enough to handle a full load. It might be that his stats are deceiving for one reason or another. I don't know what the reason is, but I know that the reason exists. My eyes and the stats tell me one thing (MeMo is unstoppable), but every other coach in the NFL tells me something completely different (MeMo will never be more than a replaceable role player, albeit a useful one). In this case, I'm going to err on the side of the coaches.

Earlier this year, I looked at a strange phenomenon where the more carries per game an RB got, the less likely he was to get injured. My conclusion from that wasn't that getting more carries reduced the chance for injury, it was that coaches wouldn't give a lot of carries to an RB unless they were sure he ranked very high in the "health" skill. It's further reinforcement of the "coaches are smart" theory. They know what they're doing. If they constantly refuse to give a guy the larger workload he seems to deserve, there's probably a very good reason for it.

This is why I call MeMo "Jerious Norwood North", and why I call Leon Washington "Jerious Norwood East" (although I'll have to change that now that he's in Seattle), and why I call Sproles "Jerious Norwood West". All four of these guys, in my mind, are from the same mold. Electric talents who excel in a limited role who coaches are reluctant to ever give an extended role to. I would never bet on any of these guys being fantasy relevant beyond an RB3 role outside of PPR leagues or leagues that reward return yardage.

 

[ultimatefootballnetwork]

Mewelde Moore is Jerious Norwood North. Plain and simple.

The problem with fantasy owners is that we often just look at rate stats and project out based on them, assuming they're an accurate measure of skill. The truth is that health is a skill, too. You could take all of ADP, CJ3, MJD, and Steven Jackson's talent and put it in the body of an RB with osteoporosis, and that RB would be worthless at an NFL level. Flat-out worthless. He'd have one spectacular carry, and then an NFL safety would come up at the end, lay wood, and break every bone in his body. Durability is a physical attribute every bit as much as speed and change-of-direction ability. Speed is just a measure of the strength of certain muscles. Durability is the measure of the strength of bones and tendons. I don't know why everyone is insistent on treating them as radically different things (like one thing is a skill and one thing is just random chance). As I said, health is as much a skill as speed or leaping ability.

NFL coaches are, by and large, very good at what they do. The NFL is a competitive marketplace, so the 32 coaches in the league likely almost all reside among the top 50 or 100 coaches in the entire nation. They know what they're doing. With that backdrop, keep in mind that three RADICALLY DIFFERENT coaching regimes have had Mewelde Moore (Mike Tice, Brad Childress, Mike Tomlin). Each one of them has seen MeMo go out and be the most effective RB on the entire roster... and each one of them has decided, independently of the others, to limit his usage. The rest of the NFL saw how effective MeMo was, yet no coach was willing to offer him big money to sign him (as opposed to Michael Turner, who was as effective in as limited of a role and who then secured a major-money contract with Atlanta). These coaches obviously know something that we, the casual fans, do not. That something might be that MeMo wears down easily. It might be that he's not durable enough to handle a full load. It might be that his stats are deceiving for one reason or another. I don't know what the reason is, but I know that the reason exists. My eyes and the stats tell me one thing (MeMo is unstoppable), but every other coach in the NFL tells me something completely different (MeMo will never be more than a replaceable role player, albeit a useful one). In this case, I'm going to err on the side of the coaches.

Earlier this year, I looked at a strange phenomenon where the more carries per game an RB got, the less likely he was to get injured. My conclusion from that wasn't that getting more carries reduced the chance for injury, it was that coaches wouldn't give a lot of carries to an RB unless they were sure he ranked very high in the "health" skill. It's further reinforcement of the "coaches are smart" theory. They know what they're doing. If they constantly refuse to give a guy the larger workload he seems to deserve, there's probably a very good reason for it.

This is why I call MeMo "Jerious Norwood North", and why I call Leon Washington "Jerious Norwood East" (although I'll have to change that now that he's in Seattle), and why I call Sproles "Jerious Norwood West". All four of these guys, in my mind, are from the same mold. Electric talents who excel in a limited role who coaches are reluctant to ever give an extended role to. I would never bet on any of these guys being fantasy relevant beyond an RB3 role outside of PPR leagues or leagues that reward return yardage.

This is quite a post. It's really thorough and reasoned. I do believe there is some merit to your theory, because even I don't think he's suited for 25-30 touches per game either and I'm as high on Moore as anyone. It's a logical thought too. Because, as you mentioned:

I don't know what the reason is, but I know that the reason exists. My eyes and the stats tell me one thing (MeMo is unstoppable), but every other coach in the NFL tells me something completely different (MeMo will never be more than a replaceable role player, albeit a useful one).

...so a common concern for Moore's durability makes a lot of sense and those are the whispers that have certainly been around for his entire career. But it's a demonstrably false premise. Seriously.

Moore hasn't missed a game due to injury since week 10 of his rookie season in 2004

Think about that. Other than the games in the 2007 season where Brad Childress bizarrely refused to play or trade Moore, Moore has played in every game for the last 5 and a half seasons. And of those 5 full seasons, Moore has had over 900 all purpose yards in 3 of them, including being 2nd in yards from scrimmage during the Steelers Super Bowl season. So we aren't talking about a guy who has a clean jersey on the sidelines.

Moore started every game in college until he broke his wrist, missing the last 3 games of his senior year. Moore's missed a total of 8 games to injury in the last 10 years combined. I'd say thats pretty durable.

So I agree that there is a bizarre, seemingly unknowable reason why Moore doesn't touch the ball more, but it surely can't be his actual durability.

 

[SSOG]

...so a common concern for Moore's durability makes a lot of sense and those are the whispers that have certainly been around for his entire career.

But it's a demonstrably false premise. Seriously.

Moore hasn't missed a game due to injury since week 10 of his rookie season in 2004

Think about that. Other than the games in the 2007 season where Brad Childress bizarrely refused to play or trade Moore, Moore has played in every game for the last 5 and a half seasons. And of those 5 full seasons, Moore has had over 900 all purpose yards in 3 of them, including being 2nd in yards from scrimmage during the Steelers Super Bowl season. So we aren't talking about a guy who has a clean jersey on the sidelines.

Moore started every game in college until he broke his wrist, missing the last 3 games of his senior year. Moore's missed a total of 8 games to injury in the last 10 years combined. I'd say thats pretty durable.

So I agree that there is a bizarre, seemingly unknowable reason why Moore doesn't touch the ball more, but it surely can't be his actual durability.

So MeMo hasn't missed a game. So what? All that means is that he's durable enough to handle his current workload. It doesn't mean he's durable enough to handle a larger workload. Jerious Norwood was pretty healthy through 3 years and the Falcons still wouldn't give him more workload. Leon Washington had never missed a game prior to last season and yet the Jets still limited his touches (and now the Seahawks have brought him in to give him limited touches again). Darren Sproles has appeared in 62 of the possibly 64 games in his career, and we all saw what happened when he got a bigger workload last season (3.7 yards per carry and major struggles by the San Diego ground game).As I said in the thread I linked to, the more carries an RB gets, the less likely he is to miss games due to injury. This is because coaches are very good at recognizing just how much workload an RB can handle and then giving him that amount and nothing more. The fact that MeMo keeps getting a light workload despite not getting injured might be an indicator that his coaching staffs are convinced that if he got a heavier workload he WOULD get injured.

Even aside form injury, though, there are lots of reasons why coaching staffs might be reluctant to upgrade his workload. Some RBs wear down much quicker than others, for instance. Even if he didn't get hurt, it's possible that MeMo would dramatically drop in effectiveness if he got ridden harder. And coaches would know if that's the case, because while we only see him 16 days a year, the coaching staffs see him 200 days a year. We've seen him get 439 career carries. His coaches have probably seen him get 10,000 carries. It's almost certain that they know something that we don't... so when they refuse to give him a greater workload, the logical assumption is that it's due to some insight they've gleaned from the hundreds of rigorous practices that they've put him through.

Mewelde Moore's career high is 12 touches a game. There's a reason for that, even if we don't understand what that reason is.

 

[ultimatefootballnetwork]

...so a common concern for Moore's durability makes a lot of sense and those are the whispers that have certainly been around for his entire career.

But it's a demonstrably false premise. Seriously.

Moore hasn't missed a game due to injury since week 10 of his rookie season in 2004

Think about that. Other than the games in the 2007 season where Brad Childress bizarrely refused to play or trade Moore, Moore has played in every game for the last 5 and a half seasons. And of those 5 full seasons, Moore has had over 900 all purpose yards in 3 of them, including being 2nd in yards from scrimmage during the Steelers Super Bowl season. So we aren't talking about a guy who has a clean jersey on the sidelines.

Moore started every game in college until he broke his wrist, missing the last 3 games of his senior year. Moore's missed a total of 8 games to injury in the last 10 years combined. I'd say thats pretty durable.

So I agree that there is a bizarre, seemingly unknowable reason why Moore doesn't touch the ball more, but it surely can't be his actual durability.

So MeMo hasn't missed a game. So what? All that means is that he's durable enough to handle his current workload. It doesn't mean he's durable enough to handle a larger workload. Jerious Norwood was pretty healthy through 3 years and the Falcons still wouldn't give him more workload. Leon Washington had never missed a game prior to last season and yet the Jets still limited his touches (and now the Seahawks have brought him in to give him limited touches again). Darren Sproles has appeared in 62 of the possibly 64 games in his career, and we all saw what happened when he got a bigger workload last season (3.7 yards per carry and major struggles by the San Diego ground game).As I said in the thread I linked to, the more carries an RB gets, the less likely he is to miss games due to injury. This is because coaches are very good at recognizing just how much workload an RB can handle and then giving him that amount and nothing more. The fact that MeMo keeps getting a light workload despite not getting injured might be an indicator that his coaching staffs are convinced that if he got a heavier workload he WOULD get injured.

Even aside form injury, though, there are lots of reasons why coaching staffs might be reluctant to upgrade his workload. Some RBs wear down much quicker than others, for instance. Even if he didn't get hurt, it's possible that MeMo would dramatically drop in effectiveness if he got ridden harder. And coaches would know if that's the case, because while we only see him 16 days a year, the coaching staffs see him 200 days a year. We've seen him get 439 career carries. His coaches have probably seen him get 10,000 carries. It's almost certain that they know something that we don't... so when they refuse to give him a greater workload, the logical assumption is that it's due to some insight they've gleaned from the hundreds of rigorous practices that they've put him through.

Mewelde Moore's career high is 12 touches a game. There's a reason for that, even if we don't understand what that reason is.

Ok, but none of those guys got 6000+ yards from scrimmage in college either. And Leon Washington did get hurt, missing more games this season than Moore has in his career. So I get your point and do believe there is some validity to it, I don't buy the whole "The coaches must know better" mantra. Mike Tice was no genius. If I recall correctly, Tice got caught making excuses to keep Moore from taking Michael Bennett's job. Bennett was "his guy". Brad Childress isn't much better in the "common sense" department. In Moore's one season with Childress, Childress played both Artose Pinner and Ciatrick Fason over Moore and then turned down Tampa Bay's trade offer only to deactivate Moore for the rest of the season and then lost him to free agency (I remember clearly because I picked Moore up on waivers on the trade rumors and was dumbfounded when the trade didn't go down). So instead of taking a 5th round pick for a player that he didn't activate on some gamedays, Childress preferred nothing. So you'll forgive me if I don't take Childress or Tice's words for it.

NFL coaches are not the all-knowing scouts you make them out to be. They are wrong about players close to 50% of the time and that's without players improving and regressing. The Cowboys have had Miles Austin riding the pine behind Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton and Sam Hurd for years. Oops.

You are right that there are limits to how much of a workload is appropriate for Moore, Leon Washington and Jerius Norwood should get, but there are also plenty of flat out mistakes.

Moore is a great, great sleeper play this year because he's the only credible RB behind Rashard Mendenhall. Now Rashard Mendenhall is a guy who I believe is not durable. Ray Lewis already crushed his collarbone once, the same game that Moore ran Ray Ray over. Moore may get a some touches out of necessity and you know he'll put up numbers.

 

[SSOG]

Ok, but none of those guys got 6000+ yards from scrimmage in college either. And Leon Washington did get hurt, missing more games this season than Moore has in his career. So I get your point and do believe there is some validity to it, I don't buy the whole "The coaches must know better" mantra.

Mike Tice was no genius. If I recall correctly, Tice got caught making excuses to keep Moore from taking Michael Bennett's job. Bennett was "his guy". Brad Childress isn't much better in the "common sense" department. In Moore's one season with Childress, Childress played both Artose Pinner and Ciatrick Fason over Moore and then turned down Tampa Bay's trade offer only to deactivate Moore for the rest of the season and then lost him to free agency (I remember clearly because I picked Moore up on waivers on the trade rumors and was dumbfounded when the trade didn't go down). So instead of taking a 5th round pick for a player that he didn't activate on some gamedays, Childress preferred nothing. So you'll forgive me if I don't take Childress or Tice's words for it.

NFL coaches are not the all-knowing scouts you make them out to be. They are wrong about players close to 50% of the time and that's without players improving and regressing. The Cowboys have had Miles Austin riding the pine behind Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton and Sam Hurd for years. Oops.

You are right that there are limits to how much of a workload is appropriate for Moore, Leon Washington and Jerius Norwood should get, but there are also plenty of flat out mistakes.

Moore is a great, great sleeper play this year because he's the only credible RB behind Rashard Mendenhall. Now Rashard Mendenhall is a guy who I believe is not durable. Ray Lewis already crushed his collarbone once, the same game that Moore ran Ray Ray over. Moore may get a some touches out of necessity and you know he'll put up numbers.

It seems to me that you're basing an awful lot on the premise that Mike Tice *AND* Brad Childress *AND* Mike Tomlin are all idiots. Those three coaches are a cumulative 99-78 (56%), so they must know something about coaching. And every other coach in the league must be blind, too, since none of them offered MeMo a decent contract or gave him a shot at a starting job when he was a free agent. If it was just one coaching staff, I could buy into the "maybe they made a mistake" argument. When it's epidemic throughout the entire league like it has been with MeMo, then I'm far less forgiving.

 

[az_prof]

SSOG nailed it on the head; durability. I am a Vikings fan and have been watching MM all his career. As a rookie he was really impressive but he couldn't stay on the field. Had he been able to stay healthy he would have won the starting job, but he couldn't. I don't see any reason to think that will change now that he is older. He is a good change of pace back but he is not a featured back.

 

[zadok]

In baseball parlance, he's a relief pitcher.

 

[SSOG]

In baseball parlance, he's a relief pitcher.

And there's nothing wrong with being a relief pitcher. He's a hell of a football player and an extremely valuable addition to the Steelers. I'm a big fan of his. He saved their bacon in a huge way in '08 when Parker went down (and he actually saved my bacon, too, because his stint as a starter coincided perfectly with some injuries to my starters). He brings a lot to the table and he makes the Steelers a much better team. I can say the exact same thing about Jerious Norwood, Darren Sproles, and Leon Washington. They're just the kinds of guys whose real value will always outstrip their fantasy value.

 

[Chaka]

Forget about whether he is a 16 game starter. The way I see it is that he produces when called upon and this year with Willie Parker out of town he is much closer to being called upon than in the past.

If Mendenhall goes down even SSOG will try to roster him. (eta: at least I think he would).

 

[Godsbrother]

Forget about whether he is a 16 game starter. The way I see it is that he produces when called upon and this year with Willie Parker out of town he is much closer to being called upon than in the past.

If Mendenhall goes down even SSOG will try to roster him. (eta: at least I think he would).

Mewelde's role is of a 3rd down back and there is no guarantee he would step in as starter should Mendenhall go down.

The Steelers backup RB situation is completely up in the air. Dwyer and Redman certainly have a chance to win the job.

 

[treat88]

Pre 2009 I would have agreed that Moore was a capable back that simply hadn't gotten a chance due to durability concerns.

His play last year changed my opinion.

He was absolutely horrible last year even within his limited role. He's never been an explosive back (Norwood/Washington are really bad comps) but he had zero burst and no vision. More concerningly he really struggled in blitz recognition/pick-up and was easily covered by LBs when he got into the pattern. The one positive contribution he made was as the designated PR inside the 10 as he was dependable on the fair catch. With no exaggeration, he was a complete liability when he was on the field last year. Just brutal.

Due to the lack of proven options behind Mendenhall he would likely play a role if an injury occurred but I think that role would be small and offers very little upside.

I think what little value he carried is all but gone.

 

[ultimatefootballnetwork]

It seems to me that you're basing an awful lot on the premise that Mike Tice *AND* Brad Childress *AND* Mike Tomlin are all idiots. Those three coaches are a cumulative 99-78 (56%), so they must know something about coaching. And every other coach in the league must be blind, too, since none of them offered MeMo a decent contract or gave him a shot at a starting job when he was a free agent. If it was just one coaching staff, I could buy into the "maybe they made a mistake" argument. When it's epidemic throughout the entire league like it has been with MeMo, then I'm far less forgiving.

Didn't say anything about Tomlin. Tomlin loves Moore, even if Moore had his worst season last year. But Tice won't get another shot at being a head coach and Childress, besides an uncommon stroke of luck in getting Brett Favre, bet his career on Tavaris Jackson. Yes Brad Childress is an insecure idiot. As for being a relief pitcher, I think that's a good comparison. But the rotation is thin this year, so to speak, and so that relief pitcher is closer to ending up in the rotation by default. The only other options right now have proven nothing at the NFL level.

 

[SSOG]

Forget about whether he is a 16 game starter. The way I see it is that he produces when called upon and this year with Willie Parker out of town he is much closer to being called upon than in the past.If Mendenhall goes down even SSOG will try to roster him. (eta: at least I think he would).

Yes, I would roster him if Mendenhall went down... but the same is true of roughly 31 other backup RBs in the NFL (I'd roster them if the starter went down, not if Mendenhall went down ). As I said, I used to be a MeMo owner and it's entirely possible that he won me a title in 2008 (his play when my starters were hurt was instrumental in me earning a bye). I'm not hating on MeMo. With that said, I'm pretty sure he's in one of those situations where he's #2 on the depth chart because he's going to be the second RB getting his number called in any given game... but if the #1 goes down, then the #3 would leap him and he'd remain #2. In other words, he's not a backup, he's a CoP.

 

[dickey moe]

Could be fantasy gold if Mendenhall goes down.

 

[Chaka]

Forget about whether he is a 16 game starter. The way I see it is that he produces when called upon and this year with Willie Parker out of town he is much closer to being called upon than in the past.If Mendenhall goes down even SSOG will try to roster him. (eta: at least I think he would).

Yes, I would roster him if Mendenhall went down... but the same is true of roughly 31 other backup RBs in the NFL (I'd roster them if the starter went down, not if Mendenhall went down ). As I said, I used to be a MeMo owner and it's entirely possible that he won me a title in 2008 (his play when my starters were hurt was instrumental in me earning a bye). I'm not hating on MeMo. With that said, I'm pretty sure he's in one of those situations where he's #2 on the depth chart because he's going to be the second RB getting his number called in any given game... but if the #1 goes down, then the #3 would leap him and he'd remain #2. In other words, he's not a backup, he's a CoP.

I don't know this for a fact but I think it's unlikely that Tomlin would rely on a rookie (Dwyer) over the stable veteran who produces every time he gets an opportunity.Not sure if Redman has shown anything but up to now he has been a ST guy. I guess it's possible he could make a jump, my money is on MeMo

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Mewelde Moore is Jerious Norwood North. Plain and simple.

The problem with fantasy owners is that we often just look at rate stats and project out based on them, assuming they're an accurate measure of skill. The truth is that health is a skill, too. You could take all of ADP, CJ3, MJD, and Steven Jackson's talent and put it in the body of an RB with osteoporosis, and that RB would be worthless at an NFL level. Flat-out worthless. He'd have one spectacular carry, and then an NFL safety would come up at the end, lay wood, and break every bone in his body. Durability is a physical attribute every bit as much as speed and change-of-direction ability. Speed is just a measure of the strength of certain muscles. Durability is the measure of the strength of bones and tendons. I don't know why everyone is insistent on treating them as radically different things (like one thing is a skill and one thing is just random chance). As I said, health is as much a skill as speed or leaping ability.

NFL coaches are, by and large, very good at what they do. The NFL is a competitive marketplace, so the 32 coaches in the league likely almost all reside among the top 50 or 100 coaches in the entire nation. They know what they're doing. With that backdrop, keep in mind that three RADICALLY DIFFERENT coaching regimes have had Mewelde Moore (Mike Tice, Brad Childress, Mike Tomlin). Each one of them has seen MeMo go out and be the most effective RB on the entire roster... and each one of them has decided, independently of the others, to limit his usage. The rest of the NFL saw how effective MeMo was, yet no coach was willing to offer him big money to sign him (as opposed to Michael Turner, who was as effective in as limited of a role and who then secured a major-money contract with Atlanta). These coaches obviously know something that we, the casual fans, do not. That something might be that MeMo wears down easily. It might be that he's not durable enough to handle a full load. It might be that his stats are deceiving for one reason or another. I don't know what the reason is, but I know that the reason exists. My eyes and the stats tell me one thing (MeMo is unstoppable), but every other coach in the NFL tells me something completely different (MeMo will never be more than a replaceable role player, albeit a useful one). In this case, I'm going to err on the side of the coaches.

Earlier this year, I looked at a strange phenomenon where the more carries per game an RB got, the less likely he was to get injured. My conclusion from that wasn't that getting more carries reduced the chance for injury, it was that coaches wouldn't give a lot of carries to an RB unless they were sure he ranked very high in the "health" skill. It's further reinforcement of the "coaches are smart" theory. They know what they're doing. If they constantly refuse to give a guy the larger workload he seems to deserve, there's probably a very good reason for it.

This is why I call MeMo "Jerious Norwood North", and why I call Leon Washington "Jerious Norwood East" (although I'll have to change that now that he's in Seattle), and why I call Sproles "Jerious Norwood West". All four of these guys, in my mind, are from the same mold. Electric talents who excel in a limited role who coaches are reluctant to ever give an extended role to. I would never bet on any of these guys being fantasy relevant beyond an RB3 role outside of PPR leagues or leagues that reward return yardage.

I think the simpler explanation is that very talented backs avoid getting hit much better than marginal and poor backs. "Health" is the same skill as "Good RB" in my opinion.

 

[faulkfan]

Ok, but none of those guys got 6000+ yards from scrimmage in college either. And Leon Washington did get hurt, missing more games this season than Moore has in his career. So I get your point and do believe there is some validity to it, I don't buy the whole "The coaches must know better" mantra.

Mike Tice was no genius. If I recall correctly, Tice got caught making excuses to keep Moore from taking Michael Bennett's job. Bennett was "his guy". Brad Childress isn't much better in the "common sense" department. In Moore's one season with Childress, Childress played both Artose Pinner and Ciatrick Fason over Moore and then turned down Tampa Bay's trade offer only to deactivate Moore for the rest of the season and then lost him to free agency (I remember clearly because I picked Moore up on waivers on the trade rumors and was dumbfounded when the trade didn't go down). So instead of taking a 5th round pick for a player that he didn't activate on some gamedays, Childress preferred nothing. So you'll forgive me if I don't take Childress or Tice's words for it.

NFL coaches are not the all-knowing scouts you make them out to be. They are wrong about players close to 50% of the time and that's without players improving and regressing. The Cowboys have had Miles Austin riding the pine behind Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton and Sam Hurd for years. Oops.

You are right that there are limits to how much of a workload is appropriate for Moore, Leon Washington and Jerius Norwood should get, but there are also plenty of flat out mistakes.

Moore is a great, great sleeper play this year because he's the only credible RB behind Rashard Mendenhall. Now Rashard Mendenhall is a guy who I believe is not durable. Ray Lewis already crushed his collarbone once, the same game that Moore ran Ray Ray over. Moore may get a some touches out of necessity and you know he'll put up numbers.

It seems to me that you're basing an awful lot on the premise that Mike Tice *AND* Brad Childress *AND* Mike Tomlin are all idiots. Those three coaches are a cumulative 99-78 (56%), so they must know something about coaching. And every other coach in the league must be blind, too, since none of them offered MeMo a decent contract or gave him a shot at a starting job when he was a free agent. If it was just one coaching staff, I could buy into the "maybe they made a mistake" argument. When it's epidemic throughout the entire league like it has been with MeMo, then I'm far less forgiving.

rather than suggest that the coaches who didn't use him were idiots, it is possible that they felt like they had better options. It may also be that the organization had someone they wanted in the game, perhaps a big contract they didn't want on the bench. Remember that there is still the issue of fans and fans come to games to see certain players. That is why the NFL is almost to the point where you can't tackle a QB, because fans want to see Manning on the field.I don't know if this is why Moore has never got a legitimate shot, but it offers a possible explanation.