What's The Earliest You Draft Rodgers ? (1 Viewer)

[humpback]

LOL  Between who?  It's not likely he's going to score 100 more points than the 4th QB who could be had quite a bit later.

For the stats that I have projected for my 6 point QB league the 100 point difference is the QB15.  I'm not starting the QB15 in my league for the season.

In a 6 point QB league it can change the order of QBs but it shouldn't really change which rounds you're drafting your QB in.

What if you're pick quite a bit later busts and you end up with the 8th or 12th QB?

You're correct in saying that Rodgers is consistently finishing at the top of QBs but so is Brees and Brady.  The huge difference is that you can get Brees in the 4th round.  Brady tends to go shortly after Rodgers in the third round.  If lots of points and consistency is your criteria then it seems Brees makes the most sense because you can get three great players before him yet.

Unfortunately it isn't nearly this simple- only 1 team is going to end up with Brees, it's far from a guarantee that you can just wait and get him instead.

I was curious how my one 6 point TD league finished last year.  Rodgers finished the season as the top QB with 462 points.  Ryan finished next with 445 then Brees with 436.  Its a full point PPR league that awards 10 bonus points for over 400 passing yards, 150 rushing yards and 200 receiving yards.  Neither of those top 3 QBs were on the the top 7 finishing teams.  .  The teams that did well had great RBs and WRs.  Rodgers was drafted at 2.04 last year in this league.  Maybe it was a fluke, I don't know

I just looked back another year and saw the same thing and this was a year that league's QB scoring settings were crazy.  Wilson had 630 points.  Rodgers was not on a top team and the other top teams just had random QBs.  Once again the guys who won had great RBs and WRs.

I had to go back to 2014 to find a team that had Rodgers on their team and finished in the top 3, he finished 3rd.  He also had Antonio Brown and Marshawn Lynch on his team.  Once again this year's top teams had great RBs and WRs.  The second place guy had Cutler as his QB to finish the season.

These are tiny sample sizes, but you're acting as if drafting Rodgers precludes you from having good players at other positions. As your last example shows, clearly it does not.

 

[Hawkeye21]

What if you're pick quite a bit later busts and you end up with the 8th or 12th QB?

Unfortunately it isn't nearly this simple- only 1 team is going to end up with Brees, it's far from a guarantee that you can just wait and get him instead.

These are tiny sample sizes, but you're acting as if drafting Rodgers precludes you from having good players at other positions. As your last example shows, clearly it does not.

In the last three years Rodgers was taken in the 2nd, 1st and 2nd round.  The teams drafting him were skipping players like OBJ, Julio, AJG, Jordy, Evans, DeMarco and McCoy.  These were all players on the winning teams as well.

I won't argue that the sample size is small though and could be completely specific to this league.  The leagues I play in greatly alter my opinion on strategies though.  I play in a full PPR 6 point passing TD league and a half PPR 4 point passing TD league and I treat QB the same in both of them.

 

[humpback]

In the last three years Rodgers was taken in the 2nd, 1st and 2nd round.  The teams drafting him were skipping players like OBJ, Julio, AJG, Jordy, Evans, DeMarco and McCoy.  These were all players on the winning teams as well.

I won't argue that the sample size is small though and could be completely specific to this league.  The leagues I play in greatly alter my opinion on strategies though.  I play in a full PPR 6 point passing TD league and a half PPR 4 point passing TD league and I treat QB the same in both of them.

Again, tiny sample size and based on ADP Rodgers wasn't going before most of those guys most of those years, but using that logic the teams drafting him were also passing on guys like Charles, AP, Hill, Eddie Lacy, Doug Martin, Montee Ball, CJ Anderson, Brandon Marshall, AJG (yes he belongs on my list 2 out of those 3 years), Dez, Keenan Allen, Watkins, Allen Robinson, and several other guys who you would have been better off skipping as well (depending on the year).

See how that works?

 

[Hawkeye21]

Again, tiny sample size and based on ADP Rodgers wasn't going before most of those guys most of those years, but using that logic the teams drafting him were also passing on guys like Charles, AP, Hill, Eddie Lacy, Doug Martin, Montee Ball, CJ Anderson, Brandon Marshall, AJG (yes he belongs on my list 2 out of those 3 years), Dez, Keenan Allen, Watkins, Allen Robinson, and several other guys who you would have been better off skipping as well (depending on the year).

See how that works?

I see how it works and it seems to me the teams winning in my league are the ones picking the right RBs and WRs, not QBs.

 

[humpback]

I see how it works and it seems to me the teams winning in my league are the ones picking the right RBs and WRs, not QBs.

Case closed, I guess.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I have this same concern in a heavy QB scoring distance league-

2016 scoring-

QB1- 496, QB 6- 379, QB 12- 357

RB1- 326, RB 12- 172, RB24- 128

WR1- 214, WR 12- 157, WR 24- 135

Based on these numbers, obviously all QBs are high scorers, but is the gap for the awesome ones enough to take the top ones earlier than usual. 

 

[Koya]

Probably August 26th or whenever my draft is.  No way I'm taking him before then.

 

[fightingillini]

I see how it works and it seems to me the teams winning in my league are the ones picking the right RBs and WRs, not QBs.

Come on.  You win titles by picking the right players.

A team in one of my leagues won when taking Rodgers in the mid 2nd round after taking Julio in the 1st.  Guy hit big on Gordon, D Murray and drafted Michael Thomas late.

That said, the earliest I would take Rodgers is the mid-late 3rd round.

 

[Hawkeye21]

Come on.  You win titles by picking the right players.

A team in one of my leagues won when taking Rodgers in the mid 2nd round after taking Julio in the 1st.  Guy hit big on Gordon, D Murray and drafted Michael Thomas late.

That said, the earliest I would take Rodgers is the mid-late 3rd round.

Wow!  Must have crushed it in that league.  That's some good picking.

 

[fightingillini]

Wow!  Must have crushed it in that league.  That's some good picking.

Exactly, that's the point.  And that owner did crush it.....he was 11-2 in the regular season.

I agree that your odds are better by taking RBs and WRs early and taking a QB later, but it's not the only way to build a winning team.

 

[Tanner9919]

His passes looked more wobbly and he was pretty poor on the road - I'm not saying it will happen this season, just that he's 39 so it's coming eventually.

I agree, his passes looked like ducks and he was atrocious on the road, with a QB rating a full 13 pts lower than at home ( 95 road to 108 @ home)

his career numbers in december are down compared to the rest of the season. he is NOT a good fantsy playoff QB, especially if he's on the road ,outdoors in cold weather..

I'l pass on Brees, always have..

couple years back, I took Rodgers 2nd overall in a 10 team league with flex players, wow did I have to scramble to get players off the waiver wire..WRs went flying off the board, then RBs..I won that year but it's hard to do when you take a QB so early..but with all the uncertainty at the top of the draft this season, suspensions to Elliott , etc,  it makes perfect sense to draft Rodgers early..he's a rock, the most steady performer in FF today.in my 2 leagues ,  he was worth 505 pts last season..Brees was 487, Ryan 468, and Cousins 424..next nearest guys were in the 370 range..

you can bet the FARM that Ryan's numbers will come back to earth this season, and if Brees looks like he did with the wobbly passes last year, he'll drop in fantasy stats as well.

Cousins might actually move up in pts, he has a better supporting cast of WRs, and the defense might not be able to hold water, thus calling for more passing and 300 yard games, but it essentially leaves Rodgers alone atop the QB heap..yeah Brady will be there as well, but Rodgers is just the best QB out there and it's not even close..and the turmoil at the RB position with GB,combined with a explosive WR corps including the rejuvenated Nelson, Rodgers might actually be significantly better than everyone else..

it's hard to get excited about anyone in the top 10 ,outside of A. Brown. thas why I'd take the Ole STandby, Aaron Rodgers, as a first round pick and never look back..

he's worth significantly more than even A. Brown, that you just have to make a halfway decent team with the rest of your roster and you're guaranteed a playoff spot..

 

[shadyridr]

That's the thing. Every year some "idiot" takes Rodgers "too early" and the rest of their team looks like garbage and every year that guy has a winning record and you scratch your head trying to figure out why. 

 

[hotboyz]

LOL  Between who?  It's not likely he's going to score 100 more points than the 4th QB who could be had quite a bit later.

For the stats that I have projected for my 6 point QB league the 100 point difference is the QB15.  I'm not starting the QB15 in my league for the season.

In a 6 point QB league it can change the order of QBs but it shouldn't really change which rounds you're drafting your QB in.

In my league #1 QB scored 95 more pts than #5 QB 120 more pts than #6

 

[Ack88]

2015 here was my draft

1.08 - Dez Bryant 30 catches 400 yards and 3 tds hurt most of the year

2.07 - Jeremy Hill  almost 240 touches 850 yards the 11 tds were nice, but was pretty much unstartable after week 3.

3.08 - Joseph Randle had one good game against the Falcons

4.07 - Hopkins great pick

5.08 - another whiff with Andre Ellington

From here out I killed the draft

6.07 Allen Robinson

7.08 Eifert

8.07 Jarvis Landry

9.08 Cam Newton

10.07 Michael Floyd

11.08 David Johnson

12.07 Doug Baldwin

13.08 Bortles

then grabbed McFadden late, and the rest is history.

You certainly did crush the back end. Well done!

To our original discussion, it appears like to you need to hit the back end nearly perfectly to overcome poor 3 rounds. IMO, Rodgers is a risk mitigation specialist. You know exactly what you are getting and will have a positional advantage every single week. Hard to pass that up in round 3.

 

[msudaisy26]

You certainly did crush the back end. Well done!

To our original discussion, it appears like to you need to hit the back end nearly perfectly to overcome poor 3 rounds. IMO, Rodgers is a risk mitigation specialist. You know exactly what you are getting and will have a positional advantage every single week. Hard to pass that up in round 3.

Thanks and to be honest it was a lot of luck. No way would I grab a rookie David Johnson if I didn't have Ellington, since this was a redraft. I also took Cam because he was the last guy I felt comfortable with as a starter and it was after a run of qb's, and Floyd was an auto pick because my internet went out lol.

 

[The Big Donkey]

in a 2Qb league, 1.3

Just curious who went first and second here.   

 

[mphtrilogy]

D johnson, lbell.. but if bell holds out much longer.. 1.2