When to Drop a Non-Performer? (1 Viewer)

[RamMan]

I saw a similar thread asking for opinions on when a "good" player should be dropped - but what about non-performing players? For you, when is it time to cut them loose and for whom?

Guys like DWill, JStew, Lynch, Addai, Knowshon, Manningham, TBMW, Collie, etc - all players who have perfomed well enough in past seasons - are all sucking out of the gate this season. When is it time to drop them in favor of potential upside guys like Delone Carter, Murray, Ridley, Powell, Cruz, Smith, etc? Especially for those of us in super competitive leaues with very short benches. My bench is littered with some of these wads and it absolutely locks me out of playing the waiver wire as I'd like. You just know that as soon as you drop one of them they will get scooped up immediately with no chance of getting them back later.

I suppose the question should be: does the guy I'm considering dropping have a better chance to turn things around than the upisde guy has of eventually breaking out? Easy to ask - not so easy to answer. Just wondering how some of you guys handle the issue. TIA..

 

[solorca]

I think you have to evaluate this one on a case by case example. Personally, here is what I would think on some of the guys you mentioned...

DWill - You probably drafted him as a RB2 or 3 at least, so cutting him is a big hit. He hasn't performed yet, but he is a notorious slow starter and is coming off of an injury. I think I would hold him for a few more weeks just to see if he regains some of his past performance.

J Stewart - He has actually been putting up decent stats over the past few weeks, and has been getting quite involved in the passing game. I would definitely hang on here.

Marshawn Lynch - His numbers have been horrible and he plays on a terrible team. He doesn't have a ton of upside this season, so I would probably drop him for a decent player that may help my team.

Joseph Addai - Changing of the guard at QB, along with some signs of life last week. I think I would hold just to see how things pan out over the next week or two.

Moreno - I wouldn't have drafted him at all this season, because I saw Mcgahee being the bell-cow in this offense, from all of the years of watching John Fox in Carolina. With taht said, he has been hurt, so I would give him a few weeks to get back to see how the split shakes out. If I could trade him for some value, I would probably do so.

Mario Manningham - He had 7 targets in week one and 7 in the first half of week two. I'll hold on to him to see how he performs when he gets back from his injury. Of all the guys you have listed, I would keep him and Stewart over the rest.

Mike Williams - He's put up WR4 numbers so far this season, with the exception of the second game. While not great, I doubt you'll find better options on the waiver wire. His talent leads me to believe that you should hold him.

Austin Collie - I would probably have already dropped him, but if he's still on your roster, I would hang on just off the off chance he's a favorite target of Painter.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Thanks for posting this. I've been trying to formulate this question for the past few days, but haven't been able to figure out now not to trigger the IMPORTANT MESSAGE ABOUT THE SHARK POOL response. Would love to hear what the Pool thinks.

 

[MDSkinner]

I agree with the above that it needs to be reviewed on a case by case basis. However, I think Addai seems to be an odd addition to this list. In one PPR league I am in he is ranked 21st RB even with the below average first week, and in a non-ppr league he is ranked 22nd RB even with that below average first week. He has been solid and possibly above where people ranked him this year in some cases. Seems like an odd addition to this list for me, I would not want him as my RB1 but he has been a solid contributor so far this year.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I think some part of the equation of the thought process behind making the tough decision of cutting a non-performing good player loose is your FF record. If you're 0-3 or 1-2 and your lineup continues to roll out 6 point duds, you need to make changes. Some would call it panic moves, but I think it's saving your season before it's too late. If you're 3-0 or 2-1, you can afford to wait patiently for the non-performer to come up to speed. But if I need to drop the nonperformer, I have a set of criteria to examine....

Factors I consider in no particular order are:

1) Has the player's PT situation changed? Is there a capable backup that is stealing his carries/targets? Is this trending a certain direction?

2) How is the general trend of the team? Are there key injuries at other positions/shaky coaching situations that can set back the teams progress and scoring potential. Is the player on a "hot" team or a "cold" team?

3) Is the reason for underperforming related to injury? If so, is it the type that is easily recovered from, or a lingering issue?

4) How do the coaches feel about the player. Does he have management support? Is there buyin that the player will be eventually used more?

5) Consider if the player is just a slow starter, or if it's apparent he's washed up. This is a judgment call, but you get a good indication when you attempt to shop them and nobody cares.

 

[RamMan]

I think you have to evaluate this one on a case by case example. Personally, here is what I would think on some of the guys you mentioned...DWill - You probably drafted him as a RB2 or 3 at least, so cutting him is a big hit. He hasn't performed yet, but he is a notorious slow starter and is coming off of an injury. I think I would hold him for a few more weeks just to see if he regains some of his past performance.J Stewart - He has actually been putting up decent stats over the past few weeks, and has been getting quite involved in the passing game. I would definitely hang on here.Marshawn Lynch - His numbers have been horrible and he plays on a terrible team. He doesn't have a ton of upside this season, so I would probably drop him for a decent player that may help my team.Joseph Addai - Changing of the guard at QB, along with some signs of life last week. I think I would hold just to see how things pan out over the next week or two.Moreno - I wouldn't have drafted him at all this season, because I saw Mcgahee being the bell-cow in this offense, from all of the years of watching John Fox in Carolina. With taht said, he has been hurt, so I would give him a few weeks to get back to see how the split shakes out. If I could trade him for some value, I would probably do so.Mario Manningham - He had 7 targets in week one and 7 in the first half of week two. I'll hold on to him to see how he performs when he gets back from his injury. Of all the guys you have listed, I would keep him and Stewart over the rest.Mike Williams - He's put up WR4 numbers so far this season, with the exception of the second game. While not great, I doubt you'll find better options on the waiver wire. His talent leads me to believe that you should hold him.Austin Collie - I would probably have already dropped him, but if he's still on your roster, I would hang on just off the off chance he's a favorite target of Painter.

Good analysis. As I mentioned, I suppose it comes down to if you believe the non-performer has a better chance to turn it around than the upisde guy has of breaking out.A good example of how paralyzed one can get, I have Gore on my roster and didn't even attempt to pick up Hunter this week because I have Lynch, Addai, DWill, and JStew on my bench. I just didn't see that Hunter had any better chance to break out this season than the guys on my bench. At most, barring injury, I see that the 49er backfield might develop into a full blown RBBC - in which case Hunter is still not worth as much as a lead RB (even in a system as bad as Seattle's). Just sux not being able to pick up some of the more compelling waiver players because of all of the dregs on my bench....

 

[RamMan]

I think some part of the equation of the thought process behind making the tough decision of cutting a non-performing good player loose is your FF record. If you're 0-3 or 1-2 and your lineup continues to roll out 6 point duds, you need to make changes. Some would call it panic moves, but I think it's saving your season before it's too late. If you're 3-0 or 2-1, you can afford to wait patiently for the non-performer to come up to speed. But if I need to drop the nonperformer, I have a set of criteria to examine....Factors I consider in no particular order are:1) Has the player's PT situation changed? Is there a capable backup that is stealing his carries/targets? Is this trending a certain direction?2) How is the general trend of the team? Are there key injuries at other positions/shaky coaching situations that can set back the teams progress and scoring potential. Is the player on a "hot" team or a "cold" team? 3) Is the reason for underperforming related to injury? If so, is it the type that is easily recovered from, or a lingering issue?4) How do the coaches feel about the player. Does he have management support? Is there buyin that the player will be eventually used more?5) Consider if the player is just a slow starter, or if it's apparent he's washed up. This is a judgment call, but you get a good indication when you attempt to shop them and nobody cares.

These are all good....thanks for the contribution. This is where the tough work of fantasy comes in - trying to make assesments on facts and not emotion. Just becasue you wasted a high draft pick on a guy and he's performed in the past doesn't necessarily mean he'll do it again. I also agree with your points about a team's record. I'm 0 - 3 right now and need to make changes. Which, oddly enough, makes the decisions even more difficult since I don't want to over-react and lose all chance of reocvering.

 

[Ditka is God]

I think some part of the equation of the thought process behind making the tough decision of cutting a non-performing good player loose is your FF record. If you're 0-3 or 1-2 and your lineup continues to roll out 6 point duds, you need to make changes. Some would call it panic moves, but I think it's saving your season before it's too late. If you're 3-0 or 2-1, you can afford to wait patiently for the non-performer to come up to speed. But if I need to drop the nonperformer, I have a set of criteria to examine....Factors I consider in no particular order are:1) Has the player's PT situation changed? Is there a capable backup that is stealing his carries/targets? Is this trending a certain direction?2) How is the general trend of the team? Are there key injuries at other positions/shaky coaching situations that can set back the teams progress and scoring potential. Is the player on a "hot" team or a "cold" team? 3) Is the reason for underperforming related to injury? If so, is it the type that is easily recovered from, or a lingering issue?4) How do the coaches feel about the player. Does he have management support? Is there buyin that the player will be eventually used more?5) Consider if the player is just a slow starter, or if it's apparent he's washed up. This is a judgment call, but you get a good indication when you attempt to shop them and nobody cares.

These are all good....thanks for the contribution. This is where the tough work of fantasy comes in - trying to make assesments on facts and not emotion. Just becasue you wasted a high draft pick on a guy and he's performed in the past doesn't necessarily mean he'll do it again. I also agree with your points about a team's record. I'm 0 - 3 right now and need to make changes. Which, oddly enough, makes the decisions even more difficult since I don't want to over-react and lose all chance of reocvering.

Bingo. Your objective is to make the playoffs. Period. You do what you have to do to get there. If that means biting the bullet on a high draft choice then so be it as long as you have compelling options on your waiver wire, through trading, etc. We're at the point in the season where trends - production, number of targets, etc., - become harder to ignore even in cases where there are extenuating circumstances. Its a bad feeling when you come to the realization you missed on a high draft pick, and it's made much worse if the guy you drop goes on to post the type of production you originally expected and he's now on another roster. But you have to be able to live with that. A lot of guys think the league is won on draft night; I have always believed the league is won by being aggressive during weeks 2-4 in repositioning your team. My $0.02.