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When to target qbs in redraft? (1 Viewer)

need2know

need2know

Footballguy
What's the consensus on when to take a qb?

Qbs are deep obviously 

I have never been one to take one early,  not gonna change now.   Ideally, I would like to get one of the mid range qbs like brady, Eli and pair him with a late guy like winston or taylor.

The problem is the people in my drafts don't comprehend math and take qbs super early.  I know 3 to 5 qbs will be gone in rounds 1 and 2.  This is great as it will push wr and rb to me I shouldn't nornally be able to get.  But this creates a situation where by rounds 4 and 5 if I want a brady or Eli I am forced to take him there.

Should I follow the herd and take the QB early to get the one I want or just settle for whatevers left over.  If I don't take one in rounds 4 or 5 I will most likely get a 10 to 15 ranked qb. But my team will be loaded every where else... anyone else have this situation?

 
When people take QBs early in my redrafts, I just sit back and load up on WRs and RBs. Let them battle it out over the QBs. You'll still more than likely be fine if you're one of the last ones to grab a QB. The position is so deep, that it really isn't worth it to grab one early. The difference between QB5 and QB12 last year was 1.7ppg. You can easily make that up with your RBs and WRs.

 
Wait until the 10th and take Rivers. You'll be stocked with depth and be able to survive injuries and make any trades you want. After injuries, other owners will be coming to you to trade. 

 
I don't even think of a QB until the 10th or 11th round. Basically, once I reach the point where I am not too interested in any of the RB/WR and I have a TE. This year guys like Rivers, Stafford, Romo, Tyrod, Cousins, Winston, Fitzpatrick, Ryan and more are all available very late. My preference is drafting 2 of the following: Rivers, Cousins, Tyrod. I feel each has the upside to be year long top 6 fantasy QB. If they bust, no big deal as streaming is usually an option in redraft leagues. Obviously, this can change depending on roster sizes, number of teams in your league, scoring quirks or any quirks with WW. 

 
I think the sentiments of "don't take a QB early" is way too simplistic in nature. Your league's scoring system matters. We get 6 pts per TD for QBs so it places an emphasis on QBs. Also, I have a Dynasty league background which means I do ALOT more homework on backups then the average Joe redrafter. This allows me to take a no doubter QB such as Cam/Rogers etc.... each year because I'm stronger at unearthing sleepers later in the draft. I've won my league the last 2 years using this method. There is no surefire means to winning any league. Know your system and don't be a sheep.

 
We also do 6 pts per passing td but i don't take a qb until later in the draft. There are only 14 or 15 of them out there draftable so don't waste an early pick on them. Simple philosophy. 

 
As for 6pt per TD. Every QB gets the extra 6 points for the TDs so I don't think it has any impact other than scrambling QBs take a slight hit. Fitzpatrick threw 31 TD passes last year. He got all those extra points just like Rodgers did. Assuming your league is pretty standard, you are better off streaming a QB than just drafting QB9-12 and playing him. 

 
Having said what I just said, target 3 QBs you feel will be productive, high ceiling, no doubters and understand their ADP before the draft. Take them when you feel it's right and don't reach.

 
eaglesfan7 said:
We also do 6 pts per passing td but i don't take a qb until later in the draft. There are only 14 or 15 of them out there draftable so don't waste an early pick on them. Simple philosophy. 
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Yup 2 of my leagues are 6 pt passing TD leagues. I'm trying to think back to last season, but I believe of the 4 teams that were in the semis in both leagues, none of the 4 took a QB before the 6th round.

Going back and looking at the Top 12 QBs from last season: 3 of them were most likely not even drafted (Bortles, Cousins, Fitzpatrick) and 4 of them (Palmer, Manning, Stafford, Rivers) were more often than not taken towards the bottom part of the starting QBs drafted. So, 7 of the top 12 QBs from last year were either taken late or not at all.

 
MattFancy said:
Yup 2 of my leagues are 6 pt passing TD leagues. I'm trying to think back to last season, but I believe of the 4 teams that were in the semis in both leagues, none of the 4 took a QB before the 6th round.

Going back and looking at the Top 12 QBs from last season: 3 of them were most likely not even drafted (Bortles, Cousins, Fitzpatrick) and 4 of them (Palmer, Manning, Stafford, Rivers) were more often than not taken towards the bottom part of the starting QBs drafted. So, 7 of the top 12 QBs from last year were either taken late or not at all.
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Don't forget Cam was a later pick as well. He had a rough 2014 and with KB injured, nobody was very high on Cam. FF Calc lists Cam as having been on average the 15th QB taken last year in drafts between Rivers and Bridgewater. Palmer was QB17 and Tyrod was QB20 (he was a starting quality fantasy QB when healthy). 

 
This is the problem with waiting.....everyone waits. From the 7th on, it's hard to pass if a good one is sitting there. I hate to do it but sometimes I do because when the run starts there isn't much left pretty fast.

 
The only way I'm taking a QB earlier is if everyone else is waiting too and one of the top guys falls to around the 7th round.  I did a mock on another site for a 10 teamer and I was able to get Brees in the 8th round.

I am going to wait until the end because there are just too many QBs to take late.  I will be fine with taking Rivers or someone around there.  Just look at the guys going undrafted in some leagues like Stafford, Dalton and Tannehill.

I also don't think that scoring rules matter much.  Unless it's a 2 QB league you can still wait on a QB since they are all going by the same scoring system.  It doesn't matter if they are getting 4 or 6 points per TD, it shouldn't change your rankings.

 
Funkley said:
This is the problem with waiting.....everyone waits. From the 7th on, it's hard to pass if a good one is sitting there. I hate to do it but sometimes I do because when the run starts there isn't much left pretty fast.
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I just told you more than half the teams i play with never wait.  Not in 10+ years

 
Unless the other players in your draft are all taking two QBs then you shouldn't worry about getting a QB late.  Once other teams start grabbing a second QB then you need to act but otherwise there are plenty available.

 
Funkley said:
I'd rather have your problem. My league waits. Wish they went earlier.
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Is it because you have more people to compete with when grabbing RBs and WRs?  Other than that it's not a big deal.  It allows you to wait and still get a top 5 QB.

 
Funkley said:
This is the problem with waiting.....everyone waits. From the 7th on, it's hard to pass if a good one is sitting there. I hate to do it but sometimes I do because when the run starts there isn't much left pretty fast.
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Well if everyone waits, that means you'll get good value on a QB. I'm in the waiting on QB camp, but if there's value that presents itself at the position, I'll grab when before I usually do. For instance, if I'm drafting this year and say Brees is still floating around out there in the 7th, I'll take him. I have him in the top 3 this year, so IMO, that would be great value.

Usually, I'll just wait though because there isn't a huge difference between QB5 and QB12. I say QB5 because most of the time in my leagues there's 3 or 4 QBs gone by the end of the 2nd.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
No, you just take the same late QB you were always going to take.  The worst you can do is get the 12th ranked QB, not a big deal.  I wouldn't stress over it.
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I guess it highlights the difference between waiting and knowing that you will likely settle for a bottom tier option vs waiting and still hoping to snipe a middle tier. 

 
Funkley said:
I guess it highlights the difference between waiting and knowing that you will likely settle for a bottom tier option vs waiting and still hoping to snipe a middle tier. 
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I just wouldn't worry about the QB position.  You should go into your draft feeling confident that you are going to have a decent QB regardless of which round you take him in.  

Do you really feel having the top rated QB over the 12th rated QB is going to make or break your team?  I don't the difference is enough to stress over.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I just wouldn't worry about the QB position.  You should go into your draft feeling confident that you are going to have a decent QB regardless of which round you take him in.  

Do you really feel having the top rated QB over the 12th rated QB is going to make or break your team?  I don't the difference is enough to stress over.
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yes/no

If all 12 of the top 12 play to their projections then yeah, it won't matter much but if someone (Winston??) ends up playing like a top 5 then it could really matter. 

 
Funkley said:
yes/no

If all 12 of the top 12 play to their projections then yeah, it won't matter much but if someone (Winston??) ends up playing like a top 5 then it could really matter. 
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Of course not every QB will play to their projections. Not even half of them did last year. Luck and Rodgers were the first 2 QBs off the board in just about every draft last season. Luck was injured and was ineffective even when he was playing. Rodgers finished in the bottom half of the Top 12. So why is it important to draft a QB early?

 
MattFancy said:
Of course not every QB will play to their projections. Not even half of them did last year. Luck and Rodgers were the first 2 QBs off the board in just about every draft last season. Luck was injured and was ineffective even when he was playing. Rodgers finished in the bottom half of the Top 12. So why is it important to draft a QB early?
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Nothing to do with my point. Some people wait on QB because they are statistically so similar that it doesn't matter who you get say 7-12. Some people wait not because 7-12 are similar but they wait because the position is too unpredictable so why bother taking one early. So there are different reasons to wait and I think being able to judge the difference matters. :shrug:

 
MattFancy said:
Of course not every QB will play to their projections. Not even half of them did last year. Luck and Rodgers were the first 2 QBs off the board in just about every draft last season. Luck was injured and was ineffective even when he was playing. Rodgers finished in the bottom half of the Top 12. So why is it important to draft a QB early?
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Last year, First time I ever drafted QB early, and it was these two (in two different leagues) .  :yucky:

 
Generally 4-5 QB's are gone in the first 24 picks in my league.  Hoping some good talent falls.  Also hoping for a top 3 pick.

 
it seems like the past 2 years, a mid round guy  blew up and was the top guy.

i like the idea of taking someone who i wont be streaming every week... its great in theory to stream, but can very frustrating as well. and in theory the guy you need every week in on the waiver wire... i prefer to avoid that and take someone in rounds 5-12.. but you just need to see how your league is rolling also.

i was just looking at a team by team realistically there is about 4-6 teams who I want no part of there qb situation.

another 6-8 where i could manage with  and the rest  I'd be completely fine starting that qb all year barring injury of course.

 
I have 4pt passing TD's.  Most of the guys draft a QB early and I tried to stream.  I got lucky and picked up Bortles off the WW in week 3 or 4.  I'll be drafting RB and WR until late.

 
if its 4 pt passing td,  then guys like cam, and wilson probably have more value cause they will score a few tds with their legs compared to eli, ben rivers etc... I'd say brady but it seems like he had a few rushing tds last year, same with cousin but that number will come down

 
In most drafts I'm targeting Brady in the 6th and Eli Manning in the 8th...if higher ranked QBs slide I'll consider them but this is who I'm mostly targeting.

 
Yeah, it's a good year to wait on QB.

That being said, I saw a ranking earlier today that had Newton at #4. Wtf?

 
I try to only draft one QB in most of my drafts just so I can have that extra RB or WR, especially when it's this early.

 
Funkley said:
not if you are on the wrong side of the QB run when it starts
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THIS is the key here. Study your league tendencies and know your fellow drafters if possible..... Have a good idea of when ANY runs will start, and try to be on the right side of them. 

 
Hawkeye21 said:
Same here except I will skip the kicker if the league rules allow for it.  No need to pick up a kicker until the day before the first game.
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agreed, I typically skip the kicker and defense (unless its someone i plan to use all year)  until the day before also.. for some reason in my first draft this year.. i drafted a kicker and defense..

 
I'll grab a defense because it's unlikely anything is going to change with the defensive rankings before the season starts.  With kickers we have no idea which ones are making their team or if they'll make it through the preseason healthy.  The only kicker I would ignore this for is Gostkowski.

 
I've been playing fantasy for 12 years. Up until last year, I was all in on the "Grab one solid mid-tier guy and hope he blows up." Sometimes that paid off (got both Brees and Rodgers in their "leap" years), but more often than not I still ended up with a solid guy like Romo.

Last year I got into streaming, mostly through necessity (took Peyton in one league, Tannehill in another. Yikes!) It worked out pretty well, and if I had figured out earlier what I was doing, it would have been even better. Given that, as well as the depth at QB this year, I'm planning on waiting (probably 9th or 10th in 16-team leagues). 

But this is important: I don't think you go into the draft planning on streaming. I think you target later round guys who are either a) undervalued or b) could blow up. In the first category, I'd put Rivers or Stafford (although I'd probably have to go a round or two earlier on Rivers). In the latter, I really like Winston this year. I don't think he's ready to make the leap, but I think his ceiling is Luck's second season, when he was something like QB6.

I'll also probably pair him with a high-floor/low-ceiling guy like Taylor, in part to make sure I start off the year with two dedicated slots for QBs. That way if any of my choices don't work out, I have streaming to fall back on.

Of course, all of this falls out the window if a Brees or Wilson is still available in Round 4. If I think I can get value on an elite QB, I'd go for that and not worry about a backup.

 
Zftcg has got it right. Stream is a fall back plan. Aim for a guy with a big upside like a Tyrod or Cousins. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Zftcg has got it right. Stream is a fall back plan. Aim for a guy with a big upside like a Tyrod or Cousins. 
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If we're talking streaming...I like Cutler and Fitz...both going around QB#25, Cutler in particular should be great value.

 
Ilov80s said:
Zftcg has got it right. Stream is a fall back plan. Aim for a guy with a big upside like a Tyrod or Cousins. 
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That's funny. We agree on the strategy, but I think Taylor has a low ceiling, and Cousins gives me major Nick Foles flashbacks (though as a DC homer, I hope I'm wrong on that). I plan on avoiding him entirely.

 
TripItUp said:
If we're talking streaming...I like Cutler and Fitz...both going around QB#25, Cutler in particular should be great value.
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Jets have the toughest QB SoS first 5 weeks including game 1 vs Bengals so I wouldn't take Fitz to stream. Cutler opens at Houston so wouldn't go there either. If I wanted to wait late and stream I go with Matt Ryan as he starts at home against Tampa. 

 
zftcg said:
That's funny. We agree on the strategy, but I think Taylor has a low ceiling, and Cousins gives me major Nick Foles flashbacks (though as a DC homer, I hope I'm wrong on that). I plan on avoiding him entirely.
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Cousins has big downside but he showed top 5 ceiling last year. Tyrod was a top 10 ppg QB in his first year starting, I think he can be an every week starter again. I like Rivers but he's being drafted as top 12 QB in most leagues. No issue with Staff or Winston. There's a lot of options!

 
Ilov80s said:
Jets have the toughest QB SoS first 5 weeks including game 1 vs Bengals so I wouldn't take Fitz to stream. Cutler opens at Houston so wouldn't go there either. If I wanted to wait late and stream I go with Matt Ryan as he starts at home against Tampa. 
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didn't realize we were talking only first five games...I was speaking to the entire season...good points though.

 
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