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When you're high on a player... (1 Viewer)

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Footballguy
When you're drafting in multiple leagues:

Let's say you're high on a guy like Reuben Droughns. Do you go after him in EVERY league or do you hedge your bet a bit so you don't have all your leagues counting on him.

Just curious how others approach this.

 
Yes.

Palmer, CJ and Fitz in every league last year. Of course, I took K. Jones too so you win some and you loose some.

 
I hedge...probably not wise, but I would hate to go down the drain in numerous money leagues on one freak injury. Last year it worked against me as I had Santana and Smith rated higher then everyone else around.

 
I hedge...probably not wise, but I would hate to go down the drain in numerous money leagues on one freak injury. Last year it worked against me as I had Santana and Smith rated higher then everyone else around.
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Please ignore the above...I see this is the thread where we discuss how we took Tiki, CJ, Gates, Smith, Palmer, LJ, Moss, Anderson, Galloway, and Rackers as our starters in every league last year.
 
Yes.

Palmer, CJ and Fitz in every league last year. Of course, I took K. Jones too so you win some and you loose some.
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Wow, you really have to be in the right spot drafting to land CJ in every league.
 
I either drafted or trade for those players in each league. Strong gut feeling and, as I said, it worked some and, as in the case with Jones, failed early and often. If I feel that optimistic about a player and his chances, then I will do what I feel is within reason to draft and or trade for that player.

 
After grabbing a guy in the first couple leagues, I begin taking him lower and lower. Sometimes I still end up with him in every draft just because I like him more than everyone else. I try to get him cheaper though as I dont really care to own one player in every league.

 
After grabbing a guy in the first couple leagues, I begin taking him lower and lower. Sometimes I still end up with him in every draft just because I like him more than everyone else. I try to get him cheaper though as I dont really care to own one player in every league.
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This is the type of thing I was searching for. Nice advice. :goodposting:
 
When you're drafting in multiple leagues:

Let's say you're high on a guy like Reuben Droughns. Do you go after him in EVERY league or do you hedge your bet a bit so you don't have all your leagues counting on him.

Just curious how others approach this.
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The answer should be yes, but you don't overpay. You target your guys as a value pick in a certain spot, but you don't force it to get them. For example, if the average draft position for the guy is 3.08 you don't take him at 2.12 if that is your spot, you hope you get him at 3.12. That being said it is very nice having the same players to root for and if you rank the guy as a 2.06 then you have to make the choice.Last year every place you looked had Lamont as the 18th best or later RB. I wrote in many places people were way under estimating his value and I would expect him to finish around the top 10. I had him ranked 11th myself so I grabbed him in the 2nd round any time I could (I never picked in the 1st 2 picks in the 2nd round. I traded him in all my leagues half way in the season and received top 10 value.

 
I tend to try and acquire the same player as well, but that doesn't necessarily mean I will be successful in doing so. There always seems to be someone else in the league that likes that player more than me.

 
If they fall to me, yes, but like Liquid Tension stated, if the value is not there I won't reach for them.

 
I tend to go a step further than UnknownCoach. Even though I like a certain player, he still is where he is in my rankings. Every player has value when they drop far enough. If I think LT2 is going to dominate this year, he moves a little farther up. If i think KJ bombs this year, he moves down, but if for some reason I can grab him as an RB3 or RB4 (i know it wont happen, hypothetical here), I will. Either way, reaching = losing, IMHO; especially in the first 3-4 rounds.

 
Yes

Got Carson Palmer, Bears defense, Antonio Gates, Willie Parker, Mike Anderson in every league last year :thumbup:

(And I was "in-the-money" in every one of my 3 leagues. Either won regular season title or post season title)

But I also got Charles Rogers in every one of my leagues.....luckily it was all in round 12 or later, and he was dropped to be dead on the WW since week 4. :banned:

 
I hedge...probably not wise, but I would hate to go down the drain in numerous money leagues on one freak injury.  Last year it worked against me as I had Santana and Smith rated higher then everyone else around.
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Please ignore the above...I see this is the thread where we discuss how we took Tiki, CJ, Gates, Smith, Palmer, LJ, Moss, Anderson, Galloway, and Rackers as our starters in every league last year.
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:lmao:
 
Yes , I understand the concept of "value" and "reaching for a player".

But.

Stupid question. How do you determine what is reaching?

example- I had I. Jordan as my number 7 overall player last year , why don't I take him as soon as I need to take a rb #1, given that the other six players are gone. Plus the fact rbs usually go fast. and the tier is not usually 12 players deep.

... anyplayer can be used.. Last year there where many.

S Smith

LJ

M Anderson

CPalmer

Brady

If choosing so called sleepers(Galloway) in the second round is what one means by reaching . then never mind.. haha....

Also..... When choosing a player does the confidence in your projection factor into the players value?

 
More or less, but the cost has to be reasonable and the deal has to make sense.

As far as dynasty leagues go, I tend to draft the same guys in a lot of my rookie drafts each year. I had five rookie drafts last year and ended up with the following players in multiple leagues:

Adrian McPherson (5 leagues)

Chris Henry (4 leagues)

Cadillac Williams (2 leagues)

Kirk Morrison (2 leagues - both of my IDP leagues)

Justin Tuck (2 leagues)

The jury's still out on McPherson and Tuck, but the other three guys have all shown that they can play (although Henry's penchant for hollow tip bullets has put his status in limbo).

Anyhow, my general strategy in dynasty leagues is to identify 20-30 guys that I like and then draft nothing but those guys. I don't do big rankings because I think it's a waste of time. I just identify players that I like and then make sure to get them on my team. I find that my biggest mistakes occur when I deviate from my gut instinct.

 
No. Honestly, rarely I am in position to get guys I am high w/o reaching or overpaying to get him. my big exception last year was Mike Anderson. I bought Shanny's rhetoric and wound up with him in 4 or 5 leagues.

 
Also..... When choosing a player does the confidence in your projection factor into the players value?
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Yes. Ben Roethlisberger is a guy that I thought was really undervalued last year. I made a point to target him in my dynasty drafts and ended up taking him far higher than his ADP (I believe I drafted him in the 6th round of two 12 team leagues). Also, I traded Drew Bennett and Chris Brown for him in a PPR dynasty league with QB-heavy scoring. I appeared to be taking a big loss in this deal, but I was so confident in Roethlisberger that I was going to pay big time to get him on my team. It's still early, but I'm pleased with the deal so far.Anyway, I think you have to be willing to gamble a bit if you think a guy is severely underrated by the consensus. I identify a few of these guys every year. I've been wrong about a couple of them in the past (Q. Morgan, O. Smith), but I've had a pretty good success rate and only seem to be getting better.

 
Yes , I understand the concept of "value" and "reaching for a player".

But.

Stupid question. How do you determine what is reaching?

example- I had I. Jordan as my number 7 overall player last year , why don't I take him as soon as I need to take a rb #1, given that the other six players are gone. Plus the fact rbs usually go fast. and the tier is not usually 12 players deep.

... anyplayer can be used.. Last year there where many.

S Smith

LJ

M Anderson

CPalmer

Brady

If choosing so called sleepers(Galloway) in the second round is what one means by reaching . then never mind.. haha....

Also..... When choosing a player does the confidence in your projection factor into the players value?
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Well you have to use some judgement. One way to think about it though is that if you did that in every round there is very little chance you will win UNLESS EVERY one of your predictions is correct; and that would be rare. For example, you mentioned Lamont, but most places had him as the 18th best RB so when you count other players being taken (Manning, Moss...) there was a great chance that Lamont would be available in the 2nd round. This is key because if a few times the guy you really want falls to you in the following round you get a huge bonus...and it will happen a few times out of your 20 picks...if you give it a chance
 
The answer is Yes, especially if you have a guy that is rated higher in your projections than others have him.

If you think that the consensus #22 WR is going to perform as a Top 12 guy, you go and get him around WR15-18 draft slot. It may seem like a reach to the casual observer, but you think you have great value (Top 12 at 16 slot).

Value still there, but you are not overpaying.

Also, as a side note, owning the same player in multiple leagues allows you to (A) know the handcuffs, (B) know the backup, and © follow the news on multiple teams all by following your guy.

 
The answer is Yes, especially if you have a guy that is rated higher in your projections than others have him.

If you think that the consensus #22 WR is going to perform as a Top 12 guy, you go and get him around WR15-18 draft slot. It may seem like a reach to the casual observer, but you think you have great value (Top 12 at 16 slot).

Value still there, but you are not overpaying.

Also, as a side note, owning the same player in multiple leagues allows you to (A) know the handcuffs, (B) know the backup, and © follow the news on multiple teams all by following your guy.
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That's all well and good until your steal of the draft is caught in the airport with an artificial penis and you're starting Mike "1.67 yards and a" Cloud "of bust" in a dozen money leagues.
 
When you're drafting in multiple leagues:

Let's say you're high on a guy like Reuben Droughns. Do you go after him in EVERY league or do you hedge your bet a bit so you don't have all your leagues counting on him.

Just curious how others approach this.
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For me personally, it is in effect two different animals: redraft vs. dynasty. In my dynasty leagues, if I really like a player, I try to acquire him in as many leagues as I can over a period of time where his perceived value is lower than my projected outlook.In redrafts I very rarely ever do this, and if it does occur, it is mostly by accident. Too much is determined by draft order. And at the end of the year, the deck is reshuffled anyway. At least in a dynasty league, you can give up too much in year one to make it back in years 2 through X.

 
The year the experts were saying Dayne would be a star his rookie year and Tiki was nothing I drafted TIKI late in every draft! Needless to say I won all my leagues that year! lol Just a hint I picked up watching pre season!

I even announced it on the boards preseason and still no one beleived me and some made fun of me. He won me 2 or 3 grand that year!

But of my 8 current dynasty teams I can't think of any one player on more then 2 teams off top of my head at this time. That is more so because of never having the same draft pick per league I guess and going with the flow which is different per draft with different owners and rules each league.

I have a rule of thumb I always follow to help prevent stacking up players.

I never play in any two leagues exactly the same.

Back when Dayne was a rookie, Dynasty was unheard of to me! It was mostly re draft each year or progressive keepers, draft value leagues and one per position keeper leagues which many I still play in to this day. I wish it was dynasty back then and I still owned Barber all these years on all those teams. hehe

I ALREADY have a late round RB sleeper for this year. I have announced it more then once. Of coarse pre season I will know for sure but absolutly no one on football guys seem to beleive me at this time. Reminds me of Tiki, Daynes rookie year.

Larry Johnson or Stephen Alexander will be on my third team soon. I traded up to get the pick and one of them will be a Buckeyedawg for a third time soon! Just havn't made up my mind which one plus the first pick could make the decision for me. hehe

Owens has been on a lot of my teams in past. But not DYNASTY.

S. Smith is on 2. Hopefully 3 if he gets to end of second round.

I seem to get stuck with Hasselbeck a lot. Used to have Bulgar a lot but never again after costing me a championship. Once a player screws me I avoid them permanently. Bulgar, Vick, McNair, Dillon, McAllister are a few big names on my permanent avoid list.

Enough TIPS for now. lol

 
I do more 'grouping' than 'slotting' when I determine worth. I think too many people put up artificial pecking orders. I try to identify a few players I like at each position and end up with similar talent in most of my leagues but I don't force an artificial bracketed tier into my redrafts. There is a lot of talent out there. Just draft well in the mid rounds and try to hope your early picks do not get hurt.

 
The answer is Yes, especially if you have a guy that is rated higher in your projections than others have him.

If you think that the consensus #22 WR is going to perform as a Top 12 guy, you go and get him around WR15-18 draft slot. It may seem like a reach to the casual observer, but you think you have great value (Top 12 at 16 slot).

Value still there, but you are not overpaying.

Also, as a side note, owning the same player in multiple leagues allows you to (A) know the handcuffs, (B) know the backup, and © follow the news on multiple teams all by following your guy.
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This is absolutely correct. If you expect Player A to perform at WR10 level when he is ADP WR 42, why would you wait until ADP40+ WRs are going off the board and risk losing him ... grab him a little early, when he is still dynamyte value but you have minimized the risk of losing him ...
 
FF is like stocks, I like to be diversified.

I play in leagues with different scoring rules, roster requirements, # of teams, etc., so players' value varies from league to league.

I really don't see the point in playing in a bunch of leagues that are similar and having the same roster for each.

All that being said, if I know a guy is undervalued, I won't hesitate to get him on multiple squads, but normally my rosters end up being pretty different for reasons stated above.

 
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I tend to go a step further than UnknownCoach. Even though I like a certain player, he still is where he is in my rankings. Every player has value when they drop far enough. If I think LT2 is going to dominate this year, he moves a little farther up. If i think KJ bombs this year, he moves down, but if for some reason I can grab him as an RB3 or RB4 (i know it wont happen, hypothetical here), I will. Either way, reaching = losing, IMHO; especially in the first 3-4 rounds.
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:goodposting: Exactly. I don't EVER "target" players. There are probably certain guys that I'll either end up with because I'm high on, or miss because I'm low on, but I'll never start a draft intending to go after particular players. If they are there and they're the highest guy on my ranking I'll take them. If they're not the highest guy, I'll pass.

I ended up with Steve Smith on all but one of my teams last season because I was high on him. But I didn't go after him specifically, I just happened to have him ranked about 2 rounds higher than most people. But in one league someone actually had him ranked a round higher than I did. But even had I known that the guy had him ranked a round higher than me, I still wouldn't have taken him in that round.

 
Certainly not with QB1, RB1 or WR1. I usually like to protect myself there even when they're available. As I move down my roster, I will start targeting guys who I believe are vastly underrated by the FF community in general. And unless we're talking drastically different scoring systems, my bench's usually tend to look very similar.

 
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I use tiers, and if there's two similar players available, one that I happen to have in another league, one that I don't, I'll generally go with the guy I don't.

I have a few players in multiple dynasty leagues and have had the same players in redraft leagues.

In my 3 dynasties,

players I have in all 3: Duckett and Charles Rogers (got him in my 3rd league this off season at a very good value IMO)

In 2: LT / Turner, R Woods, McNair, Jason Campbell, Keyshawn, Shockey, Justin Smith, and Troy Polomalu.

Only LT, Shockey and TP are sure starters. Most of these are bench players I expect to outperform their current value.

 
absolutely, I had Deuce, Javon, Culpepper, Michael Clayton, and Barlow on every one of my teams last year.

 
I do in the late rounds - if I think a guy will break out, I pick him.

In the early rounds, draft position determines who's available too much to plan to get a specific player.

Some years this works very well for me, others it doesn't. Last year was one where it didn't - I had Reche Caldwell on all my teams.

 
The answer is Yes, especially if you have a guy that is rated higher in your projections than others have him.

If you think that the consensus #22 WR is going to perform as a Top 12 guy, you go and get him around WR15-18 draft slot. It may seem like a reach to the casual observer, but you think you have great value (Top 12 at 16 slot).

Value still there, but you are not overpaying.
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This is exactly what I DON'T do. If I think the #22 WR (let's say that he projects to like an 8th round pick) is going to be top 12, I will draft him in the 8th round. If someone else gets him before me, I'll trade for him later. After all, to most everyone else, the guy is just you average 20something ranked WR - you won't have to spend much to get him. I might reach a tiny bit for guy I really like, but otherwise I let the draft come to me.
 
The answer is Yes, especially if you have a guy that is rated higher in your projections than others have him.

If you think that the consensus #22 WR is going to perform as a Top 12 guy, you go and get him around WR15-18 draft slot. It may seem like a reach to the casual observer, but you think you have great value (Top 12 at 16 slot).

Value still there, but you are not overpaying.
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This is exactly what I DON'T do. If I think the #22 WR (let's say that he projects to like an 8th round pick) is going to be top 12, I will draft him in the 8th round. If someone else gets him before me, I'll trade for him later. After all, to most everyone else, the guy is just you average 20something ranked WR - you won't have to spend much to get him. I might reach a tiny bit for guy I really like, but otherwise I let the draft come to me.
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A nice theory, but what happens when that owner has the same expectations?
 
I only play in a single league now, but before this year I always played in 2 or 3. So did I try to land players I was high on in every league? Absoloutely. I have to trust my judgement/projections and try to draft the best team possible. If I am high on a player, I obviously think he will perform well, so I will try to land him in every league, but I try to squeeze some value by waiting as long as possible..

If youre high on a player, why WOULDNT you want him on all of your squads?? FF is hit and miss. You gotta swing for the fences sometimes.

 
The answer is Yes, especially if you have a guy that is rated higher in your projections than others have him.

If you think that the consensus #22 WR is going to perform as a Top 12 guy, you go and get him around WR15-18 draft slot. It may seem like a reach to the casual observer, but you think you have great value (Top 12 at 16 slot).

Value still there, but you are not overpaying.
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This is exactly what I DON'T do. If I think the #22 WR (let's say that he projects to like an 8th round pick) is going to be top 12, I will draft him in the 8th round. If someone else gets him before me, I'll trade for him later. After all, to most everyone else, the guy is just you average 20something ranked WR - you won't have to spend much to get him. I might reach a tiny bit for guy I really like, but otherwise I let the draft come to me.
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A nice theory, but what happens when that owner has the same expectations?
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Yeah, that happens. One thing I learned early on is that no matter how good you are at FF, otehr teams are going to have some good players on them, are going to hit on some sleepers, and are going to compete with you. The thing is that my whole draft strategy is built around the reality that we aren't very good at knowing exactly which players will be good. When I have a strong feeling about a player that has statistical and football basing, I still only half-trust it. If I can't land that specific player in the draft because I won't reach for him, so be it. I'll make another good choice in that draft slot.
 
Logically, it makes sense.

If you are high on a player, you will probably take them before others will. If, for example, you take Chad Johnson ahead of Marvin Harrison in one league, and in another league you take Marvin Harrison first, then you are admitting to yourself that you have no idea what you are doing. You just made a mistake in one of the leagues.

 
Logically, it makes sense.

If you are high on a player, you will probably take them before others will. If, for example, you take Chad Johnson ahead of Marvin Harrison in one league, and in another league you take Marvin Harrison first, then you are admitting to yourself that you have no idea what you are doing. You just made a mistake in one of the leagues.
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Unless you have Manning in the league that you just took Harrison in.:tandem:

 
I always go value in the beginning rounds. I don't like to reach. But in the later rounds when it doesn't matter so much if you do reach a little there are guys that I like that I try to make sure I don't miss out on. For example I always reach a little for B.Pool in my leagues because I think he'll be a stud. But I'll never take someone like Fitz over Caddy just cause I like Fitz better.

 
It's true that the early rounds play out differently than the later ones, but for me at least, it's opposite to what you're describing.

In rounds 1-3 I take the guys I am surest about, without any regard to concensus rankings or perceived values. I took Culpepper in the first round af a 16-team draft (roughly 1.09, iirc) two years ago b/c I believed in him and knew he wouldn't be available to me in the next round (and yes, I managed just fine at RB thanks to Curtis Martin in round 3, who turned in a career year).

In later rounds, I'm much more strict about getting value. It's a discipline thing - I think the later rounds are the keys to winning. If I like a guy and take him in round 10 instead of round 12, what that means is that I get guy I like + 12th rounder instead of guy I like +10th rounder, which is what would have happened if I didn't reach. If I don't get that guy in round 12, at least I'll get 10th rounder + guy I like 2nd best in round 12. Reaching for guys ends up leading you to having a very thin team with too many moonshots, instead of a very deep team with a handful of good shots at the jackpot.

 
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