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Where do you draft DeAngelo Williams next year? (1 Viewer)

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Footballguy
Spinoff from another thread where I was taking about DeWilliams dominating the Playoffs.

He was great...doing what he should (and more) against bad defenses and doing just fine (sometimes thru the receiving game) against tougher defenses. But he started slowly (not sure about his total carries and YPC in first 6 game or so).

As the season moved on, he mostly dominated poor defenses (KC, OAK, NO, ARI, DET, DEN) on a team that completely relied on the running game. I still think there's something potentially wrong with Delhomme.

Anyways, exceptions include the Monday Night game against TB and the NYG game.

The other odd thing is that his two monster games were a result of Jon Stewart sitting out for a few quarters after getting dizzy or some sort of head injury (GB and NYG) and DeAngelo getting a couple extra 1 yard TD dives in those games as a result (going from a great 2 TD game to monster 4 TD game).

So, where do you take him next year? CAR and John Fox will 1) Run first 2) be loyal to him as his vet RB for sure, 3) and my guess is that Jon Stewart will continue to be banged up, giving DeAngelo great chances to reproduce games like those from this week. I think if you can grab DeAngelo in the 1st round and Jon Stewart around 5 or 6, you'll have a great RB1 regardless.

I think he's possibly a top 3 RB, in standard and PPR leagues, possibly mixed in with ADP, MTurner, Forte, Jacobs, MJD, Lynch, Westbrook, Portis, LT?, SSlaton?, MBIII, Gore, ChJohnson.

DeAngelo 2008:

Week 1: 90 total yards @SD

Week 2: 25 total yards vCHI

Week 3: 44 total yards @MIN

Week 4: 66 total yards vATL

Week 5: 148 total yards, 3TDs vKC

Week 6: 35 total yards @TB

Week 7: 70 total yards, 1 TD vNO

Week 8: 123 total yards, 1 TD vARI

Week 9: BYE

Week 10: 143 total yards, 1 TD @OAK

Week 11: 120 total yards, 2 TD vDET

Week 12: 121 total yards, 1TD, 1 2pt @ATL

Week 13: 76 total yards, 4 TD @GB

Week 14: 192 total yards, 2 TD vTB

Week 15: 91 total yards, 1 TD vDEN

Week 16: 108 rush yards, 4 TDs @NYG

 
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He's a very intriguing player. Assuming you're talking redraft, I suspect he gets drafted no later than early second. He'll no doubt go mid-late 1st in many league after finishing the season as the #1 RB in standard formats and making a lot of positive FF noise at playoff time. I suspect there will still be a lot of fear and skepticism that Stewart will take carries from him, but your average FFer will grab the guy who ripped off 20(+?) TDs the prior year and is not going to worry about Stewart. if Deangelo keeps up the dynamic play, fear of Stewart should be as irrelevant next year as it ended up being this year, IMHO.

Another interesting question is where Stewart gets drafted. Like was discussed at the beginning of this season, grabbing both of these players is a decent strategy. I'd guess Stewart goes where Deangelo went this season, between 7th-9th. I'll be targetting him.

 
The presence of Stewart will likely drop him to the late first early 2nd. He will be a risky pick debated by many. I imagine most FF'ers would be willing to roll the dice on him as their 2nd RB so he will likely have to be drafted in the 1st if you want him.

There will be a lot of debate about where to take Stewart based on his ADP which is likely going to be much higher than the average handcuff/2nd part of a RBBC. Will it be cost effective to take him at his ADP to lock up the Carolina running game or are you better off going all in and letting some other team take Stewart?

 
The presence of Stewart will likely drop him to the late first early 2nd. He will be a risky pick debated by many. I imagine most FF'ers would be willing to roll the dice on him as their 2nd RB so he will likely have to be drafted in the 1st if you want him.There will be a lot of debate about where to take Stewart based on his ADP which is likely going to be much higher than the average handcuff/2nd part of a RBBC. Will it be cost effective to take him at his ADP to lock up the Carolina running game or are you better off going all in and letting some other team take Stewart?
I think he is a top 5 pick next year personally. He looks like the best running back in the NFL to me when I watch him play. Great instincts, great speed, breaking tackles, changing field - he is doing it all. Also has a great OL and plays in a proficient offense.I am more impressed with him than I am with AP. I think he looks like the better running back, and better football player. I own AP in a dynasty league, and have been discussing trading him for Williams (with a little sugar on top). Not sure if I can bring myself to do it, but what I see when I watch DeAngelo play is the best RB in the NFL right now. What I see whan I watch AP play is a darn good RB on 1st and 2nd down who does not catch passes, and is having a very hard time holding the ball - and on top of that runs very recklessly making him a risk. Chester Taylor is every bit as much a factor as Stewart is - although Taylor will not be for as long. Plus, the MIN offense is weak and unimaginative, and the OL looks overrated.Didnt mean to turn it into a AP vs DWill thread, but I am thinking that the consensus top pick will likely be AP, and I am not sure if DeAngelo should not be in that discussion - which I guess is relevant to this thread even though it is a semi-hijack.
 
He's a player I'm going to avoid in the first round next year, and I'll therefore let someone else reach for him a year late.

 
He was the best RB in the NFL and FF this year ... The only one I would pick higher is AP.

Pick him high and follow him up with Stewart in the 2nd or 3rd. Carolina has the best runing game in the NFL.

You can start them both and still end up with 100 and 2 tds from both of them (which they did this year).

If either gets hurt you are likely to have the best FF RB

 
I am more impressed with him than I am with AP. I think he looks like the better running back, and better football player. I own AP in a dynasty league, and have been discussing trading him for Williams (with a little sugar on top). Not sure if I can bring myself to do it, but what I see when I watch DeAngelo play is the best RB in the NFL right now. What I see whan I watch AP play is a darn good RB on 1st and 2nd down who does not catch passes, and is having a very hard time holding the ball - and on top of that runs very recklessly making him a risk. Chester Taylor is every bit as much a factor as Stewart is - although Taylor will not be for as long. Plus, the MIN offense is weak and unimaginative, and the OL looks overrated.Didnt mean to turn it into a AP vs DWill thread, but I am thinking that the consensus top pick will likely be AP, and I am not sure if DeAngelo should not be in that discussion - which I guess is relevant to this thread even though it is a semi-hijack.
FWIW, I expect Peterson to take part in more 3rd downs in the future. Childress gets quite a lot of local flack for having Peterson on the sidelines, particularly on crucial drives. IMHO you can get quite a bit of sugar on top of that trade. I do think Deangelo has NFL staying power though, and has shown enough to be pursued heavily once he gets to FA (assuming health). Both are nice dynasty RBs.
 
What a difference 4 months makes. It wasn't that long ago people were completely writing off DeAngelo Williams (including his own team that drafted his replacement after only 2 seasons.) The guy was never really given a chance his first two seasons so it's great to see him excel. I don't see anything wrong with taking the guy in the top 5, but he has a talented 1st round RB behind him that he splits time with. There's a lot of risk involved.

They also play in the NFC South a division that is constantly in flux. No team has won the division two years in a row since the division was created prior to 2002. Carolina ranked 14th in rushing yards and 28th in TD's last year. In 2006 they were 24th in yards and 28th in TD's. This year they are 4th in yards and 1st in TD's. Will that continue? It's not like they have a lot of room for improvement when you are already ranked #1 in rushing.

 
Very intriguing question. I agree with the redraft sentiment of late 1st or early 2nd round. With the year Deangelo had, I don't see Stewart taking the reins next year, if at all.

What do you guys think of his keeper value? I'm in a keep 2 league and will be keeping ADP (in spite of the aforementioned lack of pass catching and unimaginative offense) and have to decide between Deangelo and Chris Johnson. all year I had CJ pegged as my 2nd keeper but Deangelo has me thinking long and hard after what he's done this 2nd half. I think Lendale is less of a long term threat than Stewart so I am leaning CJ, but it's tough. Of course, Tenn also refuses to throw CJ the ball, and has an unimaginative O....

 
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He was the best RB in the NFL and FF this year ... The only one I would pick higher is AP. Pick him high and follow him up with Stewart in the 2nd or 3rd. Carolina has the best runing game in the NFL.You can start them both and still end up with 100 and 2 tds from both of them (which they did this year).If either gets hurt you are likely to have the best FF RB
seems kind of obvious to me, but next year <> this year
 
Stewart in the 2nd or 3rd. Carolina has the best runing game in the NFL.
I'd say 5th at the earliest unless I see mocks where people are drafting Stewart as a #2 RB.
:confused: No way anyone should draft 2 rbs from the same team in the first 3 rounds. Thats insane!!!
That may be true, but in 2004, I drafted Priest Holmes from the #3 draft position and took LJ in the 4th. Some weeks, I started both of them and it worked out well. Granted, Priest got himself injured and LJ dominated from there, but if the same happened in Carolina watch out! BTW, I also won the SB in that league in '04.
 
Stewart in the 2nd or 3rd. Carolina has the best runing game in the NFL.
I'd say 5th at the earliest unless I see mocks where people are drafting Stewart as a #2 RB.
:confused: No way anyone should draft 2 rbs from the same team in the first 3 rounds. Thats insane!!!
That may be true, but in 2004, I drafted Priest Holmes from the #3 draft position and took LJ in the 4th. Some weeks, I started both of them and it worked out well. Granted, Priest got himself injured and LJ dominated from there, but if the same happened in Carolina watch out! BTW, I also won the SB in that league in '04.
Fine but that seems more like the exception than the rule. I cannot imagine there not being better options than Jonathan Stewart in round 2 or 3. I would take a less talented starting rb in that round instead.
 
I gotta see what happens with Jordan Gross. Whether he re-signs with the Panthers will go a long way towards my thoughts on DeAngelo Williams next season.

 
You can start them both and still end up with 100 and 2 tds from both of them (which they did this year).If either gets hurt you are likely to have the best FF RB
I did this in one league, taking Brady (ouch) and some WR, then taking the CAR and TEN backfields. Worked out pretty well, esp when TEN or CAR played DET, OAK, KC...
 
he'll be severely overrated next year
Those are my thoughts, also, esp with the data I posted at the top of the thread. His 4 TD games were a bit fluke-ish, but if Jon Stewart keeps getting dinged, I'll take those flukes (esp when the non-flukes are 1-2 TDs rushing or receiving).Still not alot of talk here in this thread about the fact that only 2 of his good games were against good DEF, and the 4TD games were padded by (2) 1 yard plunges that would have been Jon Stew's, had he been 'ok.' That's my concern with him going into next year; maybe he's a 1200 and 12 TD guy next year if Jon Stew stays healthy. I'd rather go with MiTurner or maybe even a Chris Johnson.
 
Guys predicting Williams' rapid fall back to earth next year should bear one thing in mind: He started very slowly this year.

If DeAngelo could actually have a reasonably solid start in 2009, he wouldn't need mulitiple games with 4 TDs to match his 2008 production.

I'll go on record as one who see's DeAngelo as a top 5 producer next year, who's stats will remain reliable. He's got a young O line, steady passing game, and he's begun to use the offseason very well (thanks to a heart to heart with Vinny T.) If he's available in your league after the first round, you should be very surprised and draft him.

 
IMO he will be over rated next year. I would take him in late 1st but more likely in the leagues that I play in. Someone will take him mostly like in the top 6 picks in about 95% of the drafts next year.

I still think you have to look at Peterson #1 at this point. Childress needs to realize what he has for a back or get out of town. Turner to me is a lock at #2 and I might take him 1 if I get the chance.Mularkey has always done a great job producing top RB when he is running the offense.

 
I still think you have to look at Peterson #1 at this point. Childress needs to realize what he has for a back or get out of town. Turner to me is a lock at #2 and I might take him 1 if I get the chance.
That's what I am thinking. I might take DeAngelo if he fell to me around 9 or 10, but figure he will be a top 4 or 5 pick...assuming general concensus will be ADP, Turner, DeAngelo, Westbrook, Forte, MJD... If I am picking top 3, I would probably take Turner over ADP and Forte.
 
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He isn't close to AP or MJD in talent. That being said, I'd take him in the top 5 next season based on 16 td's in 8 games

It wont surprise me if Stewart becomes a vulture and eats away on his tds.

 
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A couple of points I want to emphasize from my original post:

1. DeAngelo had one good game (vs. KC) in his first 6 in 2008. ONE.

2. He had good games vs. BAD Defenses in most cases (TB, NYG the exceptions).

3. Jon Stewart WAS the goalline back and did take those carries most of the season. DeAngelo's two 4-TD games were the result of Jon Stewart being pulled out of those games (with some head issues/possible concussions) and DeAngelo getting a couple of extra 1 yard plunges in each of those games.

So, yes, lots of touchdowns. Yes, running team. Yes, Fox loves his veterans.

BUT...like Rothlesburger's 32 TDs last season, I think that DeAngelo's value will be inflated and he is likely to be a much more 'normal' 10-12 TD guy, which is not bad for a late 1st or 2nd round pick in 10 team leagues, but not a top 5 guy, in my opinion.

 
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He isn't close to AP or MJD in talent. That being said, I'd take him in the top 5 next season based on 16 td's in 8 games

It wont surprise me if Stewart becomes a vulture and eats away on his tds.
How can you say that? You can prefer MJD, but to say that the two aren't even close is extremelty subjective.
 
Stewart in the 2nd or 3rd. Carolina has the best runing game in the NFL.
I'd say 5th at the earliest unless I see mocks where people are drafting Stewart as a #2 RB.
:mellow: No way anyone should draft 2 rbs from the same team in the first 3 rounds. Thats insane!!!
That may be true, but in 2004, I drafted Priest Holmes from the #3 draft position and took LJ in the 4th. Some weeks, I started both of them and it worked out well. Granted, Priest got himself injured and LJ dominated from there, but if the same happened in Carolina watch out! BTW, I also won the SB in that league in '04.
Fine but that seems more like the exception than the rule. I cannot imagine there not being better options than Jonathan Stewart in round 2 or 3. I would take a less talented starting rb in that round instead.
Now that's a new draft strategy ... Go for the less talented players.
 
I have DWill in a one player keeper PPR League. I think I have to give up like a 12th rd pick next yr to keep DWill. Seems like a no-brainer to keep DWill and see where I can get Stewart.

For what it is worth, I think DWill will be overrated next yr, but still has an amazing upside if his carries/game somehow increase. Remember this guy has done most of his damage in the 2nd half of this yr.

Lastly, I see a lot of comparisons to ADP. I really think Forte will be awesome next yr.....primary ball carrier and catches a ton of passes.

 
A couple of points I want to emphasize from my original post:

1. DeAngelo had one good game (vs. KC) in his first 6 in 2008. ONE.

2. He had good games vs. BAD Defenses in most cases (TB, NYG the exceptions).

3. Jon Stewart WAS the goalline back and did take those carries most of the season. DeAngelo's two 4-TD games were the result of Jon Stewart being pulled out of those games (with some head issues/possible concussions) and DeAngelo getting a couple of extra 1 yard plunges in each of those games.
1) Williams started slow, granted-but you also have to take into account other factors. Smith was out for the first two games, and the offense was not operating on all cylinders. In 3 of those 1st 6 games, Williams got 13 or less touches. He wouldn't get less than 15 touches in any other games. Also, who was he playing? SD, Chi, Min, Atl, KC, & TB. With the exception of KC, all these defenses were in the top 1/3 in the NFL (with regards to FF points for RBs). 2) Isn't that what you expect STUD (FF) RBs to do: have good games against the teams they are supposed to? Let's compare him to Turner, since they were in the same division & they played most of the same opponents (and, since many in this thread have said he would clearly be ahead of D-WILL next year). Turner had 11 good games, while Williams had 10 good games (100+yds OR 50yds+TD).

Turner's good games came against: Car, Den, Det, GB, KC, Min, NO, NO, Oak, SD, & TB (once).

William's good games came against: Ari, Atl, Den, Det, GB, KC, NO, NYG, Oak, & TB (once). **Williams also had 90 total yards vs SD (Turner had 120)

As you can see, many of their good games came against the same opponents (bolded). Turner added good games against Car, Min, and SD, while Williams replaced those with good games against Ari, Atl, & NYG. In addition, Williams "bad" game against SD was not much worse than Turner's "good" game: Williams 90 yards, Turner 120 yards.

These two have similar results with similar schedules (Turner has about 60 more total yards, while Williams has 4 more TDs)

3) This IS NOT true. Stewart is NOT the goal-line or short yardage back in Carolina. Williams and Stewart ARE NOT situational RBs (with the lone exception that in obvious passing situations, Williams would sometimes replace Stewart). Unless one back was winded bya a long run or injured, they didn't replace one another for goal-line, short-yardage, or 3rd down situations. On the year, Williams had 41 short-yardage carries. He converted 26 first downs & scored 11 TDs. Stewart had 37 short-yardage carries, converted 21 first downs & scored 6 TDs. WIth regards to goal-line carries, Williams had 12 carries inside the 5, while Stewart had 8 carries inside the 5. Williams converted 8 for TDs, while Stewart converted 6 for TDs. As you can see, there is no goal-line RB.

Personally, I feel like Williams SHOULD come down from his production this year. 2008 was a huge year for him, but I still feel like he should be a top 10 RB in 2009.

 
Stewart in the 2nd or 3rd. Carolina has the best runing game in the NFL.
I'd say 5th at the earliest unless I see mocks where people are drafting Stewart as a #2 RB.
:shrug: No way anyone should draft 2 rbs from the same team in the first 3 rounds. Thats insane!!!
That may be true, but in 2004, I drafted Priest Holmes from the #3 draft position and took LJ in the 4th. Some weeks, I started both of them and it worked out well. Granted, Priest got himself injured and LJ dominated from there, but if the same happened in Carolina watch out! BTW, I also won the SB in that league in '04.
Fine but that seems more like the exception than the rule. I cannot imagine there not being better options than Jonathan Stewart in round 2 or 3. I would take a less talented starting rb in that round instead.
Now that's a new draft strategy ... Go for the less talented players.
I'll let you draft a very talented backup rb in the 2nd round over a less talented starting rb. Please report results back to me next year.............. :excited:
 
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A couple of points I want to emphasize from my original post:

1. DeAngelo had one good game (vs. KC) in his first 6 in 2008. ONE.

2. He had good games vs. BAD Defenses in most cases (TB, NYG the exceptions).

3. Jon Stewart WAS the goalline back and did take those carries most of the season. DeAngelo's two 4-TD games were the result of Jon Stewart being pulled out of those games (with some head issues/possible concussions) and DeAngelo getting a couple of extra 1 yard plunges in each of those games.
1) Williams started slow, granted-but you also have to take into account other factors. Smith was out for the first two games, and the offense was not operating on all cylinders. In 3 of those 1st 6 games, Williams got 13 or less touches. He wouldn't get less than 15 touches in any other games. Also, who was he playing? SD, Chi, Min, Atl, KC, & TB. With the exception of KC, all these defenses were in the top 1/3 in the NFL (with regards to FF points for RBs). 2) Isn't that what you expect STUD (FF) RBs to do: have good games against the teams they are supposed to? Let's compare him to Turner, since they were in the same division & they played most of the same opponents (and, since many in this thread have said he would clearly be ahead of D-WILL next year). Turner had 11 good games, while Williams had 10 good games (100+yds OR 50yds+TD).

Turner's good games came against: Car, Den, Det, GB, KC, Min, NO, NO, Oak, SD, & TB (once).

William's good games came against: Ari, Atl, Den, Det, GB, KC, NO, NYG, Oak, & TB (once). **Williams also had 90 total yards vs SD (Turner had 120)

As you can see, many of their good games came against the same opponents (bolded). Turner added good games against Car, Min, and SD, while Williams replaced those with good games against Ari, Atl, & NYG. In addition, Williams "bad" game against SD was not much worse than Turner's "good" game: Williams 90 yards, Turner 120 yards.

These two have similar results with similar schedules (Turner has about 60 more total yards, while Williams has 4 more TDs)

3) This IS NOT true. Stewart is NOT the goal-line or short yardage back in Carolina. Williams and Stewart ARE NOT situational RBs (with the lone exception that in obvious passing situations, Williams would sometimes replace Stewart). Unless one back was winded bya a long run or injured, they didn't replace one another for goal-line, short-yardage, or 3rd down situations. On the year, Williams had 41 short-yardage carries. He converted 26 first downs & scored 11 TDs. Stewart had 37 short-yardage carries, converted 21 first downs & scored 6 TDs. WIth regards to goal-line carries, Williams had 12 carries inside the 5, while Stewart had 8 carries inside the 5. Williams converted 8 for TDs, while Stewart converted 6 for TDs. As you can see, there is no goal-line RB.

Personally, I feel like Williams SHOULD come down from his production this year. 2008 was a huge year for him, but I still feel like he should be a top 10 RB in 2009.
:shrug: particularly in regards to doing well vs. bad defenses. Just because these guys SHOULD do that doesn't mean they always do. In fact, it's quite common to be disappointed when a stud doesn't blow up vs. a bad defense. People couldn't understand why AP didn't have 250 yds vs. NO this year. It happens and happens quite often. The fact that DeWill did so well EVERY WEEK against bad defenses is not a negative just because he played bad defenses. The fact that he had monster games in that stretch against 2 ELITE defenses is even better.
 
He isn't close to AP or MJD in talent. That being said, I'd take him in the top 5 next season based on 16 td's in 8 games

It wont surprise me if Stewart becomes a vulture and eats away on his tds.
How can you say that? You can prefer MJD, but to say that the two aren't even close is extremelty subjective.
How I can say that? One guy has performed for 1 year. The other has more or less performed for 3 years with a horrible OL and a coach who doesn't understand he has one of the 2 best RB's in football.MJD would break records with the blocking DW got.

2006 Carolina 13 121 501 38.5 4.1 1

2007 Carolina 16 144 717 44.8 5.0 4

2008 Carolina 15 248 1337 89.1 5.4 18

Look at that 3rd yr breakout.....check out the 3rd/yr wr breakout thread

 
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I am really fortunate...I took him in the 10th round this year so next year, I get to take him a a keeper in the 5th round.

However if it was a 100% redraft, I would agree with some here that I would have a hard time taking him in the 1st round.

Not that he wouldn't be worthy of being taken in the first...because clearly he is....I just don't know that I would want to take the risk.

With nearly every team using mutiple RB combos - depending on my draft position, I may target a top 3 QB in the first round for the first time in my life.

 
2) Isn't that what you expect STUD (FF) RBs to do: have good games against the teams they are supposed to? 3) Williams and Stewart ARE NOT situational RBs.... ...but I still feel like he should be a top 10 RB in 2009.
Great stuff...great stats (esp with the carries in the first 6 games and goalline stuff). I agree 100%. DWill is a great top 10, but probably a risky top 3.That being said, if you take him top 3 and grab Stewart in the 5th or 6th round, it's as sound a strategy as taking ADP/Chester with those same picks. You should get great production from a #1RB, and possibly a 1-2 punch vs. bad DEF where you start both. And if one gets injured, you are probably looking at 1-2TD/game upside.
 
He isn't close to AP or MJD in talent. That being said, I'd take him in the top 5 next season based on 16 td's in 8 games

It wont surprise me if Stewart becomes a vulture and eats away on his tds.
How can you say that? You can prefer MJD, but to say that the two aren't even close is extremelty subjective.
How I can say that? One guy has performed for 1 year. The other has more or less performed for 3 years with a horrible OL and a coach who doesn't understand he has one of the 2 best RB's in football.MJD would break records with the blocking DW got.

2006 Carolina 13 121 501 38.5 4.1 1

2007 Carolina 16 144 717 44.8 5.0 4

2008 Carolina 15 248 1337 89.1 5.4 18

Look at that 3rd yr breakout.....check out the 3rd/yr wr breakout thread
THIRD YEAR BREAKOUT????You mean because he had more than 100 more carries than the previous year(s) ?

You mean because he was finally the lead back instead of the COP runner?

You mean because he was finally used correctly AND had Great blocking?

 
Williams is going to be a tough one to figure for redraft next year. He basically has nowhere to go but down, given you just don't see guys score 20+ total TDs like it's nothing, but the Carolina running game seems to have been re-energized with the improved line play.

Invariably, omeone in my money leagues is going to take him earlier than I'm comfortable with. I'm not willing to risk a mid-first on him....yet...and I assume that's the minimum for what it takes to land him. I may change my mind in a month. Then change it back, etc. etc.

Other factors need to be considered though. Like how many of his OLer are potentially flying the coop via FA? I'm pretty sure Gross is free agent. Anyone else?

 
He isn't close to AP or MJD in talent. That being said, I'd take him in the top 5 next season based on 16 td's in 8 games

It wont surprise me if Stewart becomes a vulture and eats away on his tds.
How can you say that? You can prefer MJD, but to say that the two aren't even close is extremelty subjective.
:goodposting: The whole "talent" argument is hilarious to me. Obviously Williams was a first round pick so someone thought he was talented at some point. At the same time, so was Benson...subjective for sure and there is nothing (after seeing this season where D-Will was given a real chance) that tells me that MJD is far more talented than D-Will.

 
The Carolina rushing game has put up incredible numbers this, each running back has been productive. While Deangelo probably will not score 20 TDs next season, I would expect his yardage to stay the same and his TDs not to take enough of a hit that would bump him out of the first round.

 
doesn't surprise me that most fbg's think he's overrated for next year. most fbg's also thought he was going to be second fiddle to stewart this year. some people never learn. he'll be available around pick 7 or later in a lot of leagues which is the most value you'll ever get in the first round. he probably won't repeat as the #1 RB but you can take it to the bank that he'll be a strong RB1.

kind of surprised that the same thread isn't going around with turner, a guy who put up similar #'s for only one year AND has the concern over a large # of carries and atlanta potentially throwing the ball more. at least dwill is a talented receiver who could see an upswing in those #'s next year if someone figures out how to slow down the running game.

 
I heard on the radio that if Williams has a rushing TD tomorrow of 30 or more yards he will tie a record set by Jim Brown 50 yrs ago for the most TDs of 30+ yards. Do people honestly expect him to repeat numbers like that next season? Was everyone - including his own team who took Stewart with the 13th overall pick - wrong about Williams last year? He may be more talented then most thought he was a year ago, but there is no way he is as talented as some make him out to be today. He was an absolute steal in most fantasy drafts this past year, but he will be very overvalued next year.

 
I've seen a lot of folks write off DeAngelo because of Jon Stewart being in the same backfield in 2009. Yet, I don't see those same people writing off Adrian Peterson, Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Maurice Jones-Drew, etc...it's rare these days when a RB isn't sharing touches. Williams has been an absolute beast, to argue that kind of talent and production was a fluke belies history. If healthy, it's difficult to find many comparable examples of someone putting up Williams stats and then falling short of a RB1 grade the following year.

 
I've seen a lot of folks write off DeAngelo because of Jon Stewart being in the same backfield in 2009. Yet, I don't see those same people writing off Adrian Peterson, Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Maurice Jones-Drew, etc...it's rare these days when a RB isn't sharing touches. Williams has been an absolute beast, to argue that kind of talent and production was a fluke belies history. If healthy, it's difficult to find many comparable examples of someone putting up Williams stats and then falling short of a RB1 grade the following year.
List of guys with 18+ rushing TDs in a single season (from pro-football reference):1. LaDainian Tomlinson (27) 28 2006 SDG2. Priest Holmes (30) 27 2003 KAN Shaun Alexander (28) 27 2005 SEA4. Emmitt Smith (26) 25 1995 DAL5. John Riggins+ (34) 24 1983 WAS6. Terrell Davis (26) 21 1998 DEN Priest Holmes (29) 21 2002 KAN Emmitt Smith (25) 21 1994 DAL Terry Allen (28) 21 1996 WAS Joe Morris (25) 21 1985 NYG11. Larry Johnson (26) 20 2005 KAN12. Chuck Muncie (28) 19 1981 SDG Earl Campbell+ (24) 19 1979 HOU Jim Taylor+ (27) 19 1962 GNB15. Spec Sanders (29) 18 1947 NYY DeAngelo Williams (25) 18 2008 CAR LaDainian Tomlinson (26) 18 2005 SDG Marshall Faulk (27) 18 2000 STL Emmitt Smith (23) 18 1992 DAL George Rogers (28) 18 1986 WAS Eric Dickerson+ (23) 18 1983 RAMPretty elite list
 
I would have no problem taking him in the first round.... Stewart will not take away DWilla's long TD runs, and he's clearly become the Goal Line back too. :goodposting:

 
Here is the list of players who have averaged 5.4 ypc or higher with over 200 carries

1 Adrian Peterson rb 2007 22 1 14 238 1341 5.63 12 238.90

2 Frank Gore rb 2006 23 2 16 312 1695 5.43 8 272.00

3 Clinton Portis rb 2003 22 2 13 290 1591 5.49 14 274.50

4 Clinton Portis rb 2002 21 1 16 273 1508 5.52 15 289.20

5 Marshall Faulk rb 1999 26 6 16 253 1381 5.46 7 314.90

6 Barry Sanders rb 1997 29 9 16 335 2053 6.13 11 319.80

7 Robert Smith rb 1997 25 5 14 232 1266 5.46 6 188.30

8 Barry Sanders rb 1994 26 6 16 331 1883 5.69 7 264.60

9 James Brooks rb 1989 31 9 16 221 1239 5.61 7 208.50

10 Eric Dickerson rb 1984 24 2 16 379 2105 5.55 14 306.40

11 Walter Payton rb 1977 23 3 14 339 1852 5.46 14 308.10

12 O.J. Simpson rb 1975 28 7 14 329 1817 5.52 16 362.30

13 O.J. Simpson rb 1973 26 5 14 332 2003 6.03 12 279.30

14 Leroy Kelly rb 1966 24 3 14 209 1141 5.46 15 246.70

15 Jim Brown rb 1963 27 7 14 291 1863 6.40 12 303.10

16 Jim Taylor rb 1962 27 5 14 272 1474 5.42 19 272.00

17 Jim Brown rb 1960 24 4 12 215 1257 5.85 9 212.10

Even more elite list than the one I posted above. He's on both. If he were to completely bomb and disappoint next year, he'd literally be a one of a kind to do that after putting up the #'s he has.

 
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I've seen a lot of folks write off DeAngelo because of Jon Stewart being in the same backfield in 2009. Yet, I don't see those same people writing off Adrian Peterson, Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Maurice Jones-Drew, etc...it's rare these days when a RB isn't sharing touches. Williams has been an absolute beast, to argue that kind of talent and production was a fluke belies history. If healthy, it's difficult to find many comparable examples of someone putting up Williams stats and then falling short of a RB1 grade the following year.
I don't think it's that Stewart is in the backfield per say, I think it's that the team clearly identified the RB position as a position that they needed to address first and foremost in this past year's draft.
 
Here is the list of players who have averaged 5.4 ypc or higher with over 200 carries1 Adrian Peterson rb 2007 22 1 14 238 1341 5.63 12 238.902 Frank Gore rb 2006 23 2 16 312 1695 5.43 8 272.003 Clinton Portis rb 2003 22 2 13 290 1591 5.49 14 274.504 Clinton Portis rb 2002 21 1 16 273 1508 5.52 15 289.205 Marshall Faulk rb 1999 26 6 16 253 1381 5.46 7 314.906 Barry Sanders rb 1997 29 9 16 335 2053 6.13 11 319.807 Robert Smith rb 1997 25 5 14 232 1266 5.46 6 188.308 Barry Sanders rb 1994 26 6 16 331 1883 5.69 7 264.609 James Brooks rb 1989 31 9 16 221 1239 5.61 7 208.5010 Eric Dickerson rb 1984 24 2 16 379 2105 5.55 14 306.4011 Walter Payton rb 1977 23 3 14 339 1852 5.46 14 308.1012 O.J. Simpson rb 1975 28 7 14 329 1817 5.52 16 362.3013 O.J. Simpson rb 1973 26 5 14 332 2003 6.03 12 279.3014 Leroy Kelly rb 1966 24 3 14 209 1141 5.46 15 246.7015 Jim Brown rb 1963 27 7 14 291 1863 6.40 12 303.1016 Jim Taylor rb 1962 27 5 14 272 1474 5.42 19 272.0017 Jim Brown rb 1960 24 4 12 215 1257 5.85 9 212.10Even more elite list than the one I posted above. He's on both. If he were to completely bomb and disappoint next year, he'd literally be a one of a kind to do that after putting up the #'s he has.
I don't think anyone's saying he will "completely bomb". I think people are saying that he will be overvalued next year in terms of his fantasy value.
 
Here is the list of players who have averaged 5.4 ypc or higher with over 200 carries1 Adrian Peterson rb 2007 22 1 14 238 1341 5.63 12 238.902 Frank Gore rb 2006 23 2 16 312 1695 5.43 8 272.003 Clinton Portis rb 2003 22 2 13 290 1591 5.49 14 274.504 Clinton Portis rb 2002 21 1 16 273 1508 5.52 15 289.205 Marshall Faulk rb 1999 26 6 16 253 1381 5.46 7 314.906 Barry Sanders rb 1997 29 9 16 335 2053 6.13 11 319.807 Robert Smith rb 1997 25 5 14 232 1266 5.46 6 188.308 Barry Sanders rb 1994 26 6 16 331 1883 5.69 7 264.609 James Brooks rb 1989 31 9 16 221 1239 5.61 7 208.5010 Eric Dickerson rb 1984 24 2 16 379 2105 5.55 14 306.4011 Walter Payton rb 1977 23 3 14 339 1852 5.46 14 308.1012 O.J. Simpson rb 1975 28 7 14 329 1817 5.52 16 362.3013 O.J. Simpson rb 1973 26 5 14 332 2003 6.03 12 279.3014 Leroy Kelly rb 1966 24 3 14 209 1141 5.46 15 246.7015 Jim Brown rb 1963 27 7 14 291 1863 6.40 12 303.1016 Jim Taylor rb 1962 27 5 14 272 1474 5.42 19 272.0017 Jim Brown rb 1960 24 4 12 215 1257 5.85 9 212.10Even more elite list than the one I posted above. He's on both. If he were to completely bomb and disappoint next year, he'd literally be a one of a kind to do that after putting up the #'s he has.
I don't think anyone's saying he will "completely bomb". I think people are saying that he will be overvalued next year in terms of his fantasy value.
Well, and I'm saying when you look at the 2 lists that comprise people that have accomplished what he's done this year (his ypc and his TD totals), it would be a shock for him to not finish in the top 10. The guy didn't just put together a decent season. He's put up some amazing #'s. It's easy to say "yeah, but he'll regress to the mean or his #'s will fall of or there's no way he can keep up that kind of production". But, when you look at the guys who've done what he's done, you just don't find any "flukes" on those lists. Bottomline is--DeAngelo is not a fluke nor are his #'s. You can see that watching him play and you can see that in his #'s. If you use a high pick on him, I highly doubt you'll be disappointed and I don't think he's going to be overvalued at all.
 
I've seen a lot of folks write off DeAngelo because of Jon Stewart being in the same backfield in 2009. Yet, I don't see those same people writing off Adrian Peterson, Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Maurice Jones-Drew, etc...it's rare these days when a RB isn't sharing touches. Williams has been an absolute beast, to argue that kind of talent and production was a fluke belies history. If healthy, it's difficult to find many comparable examples of someone putting up Williams stats and then falling short of a RB1 grade the following year.
I don't think it's that Stewart is in the backfield per say, I think it's that the team clearly identified the RB position as a position that they needed to address first and foremost in this past year's draft.
Like many things in the NFL, that was a very logical conclusion to make [i made the same one] when the Panthers took Stewart high and then Otah right behind him. But so many things don't pan out each year the way we, or the teams expected. The Panthers probably intended for Stewart to be the starter sooner rather than later, but no matter how they got there, the fact is Williams answered the bell with an MVP-like season. This wasn't the case of a guy like Chester Taylor or Justin Fargas putting together a "nice" season while keeping a young stud at bay, this is a case of a highly regarded back finally putting together a great season, and one that has only been matched by some of the best runners in league history. Big difference.
 
I've seen a lot of folks write off DeAngelo because of Jon Stewart being in the same backfield in 2009. Yet, I don't see those same people writing off Adrian Peterson, Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Maurice Jones-Drew, etc...it's rare these days when a RB isn't sharing touches. Williams has been an absolute beast, to argue that kind of talent and production was a fluke belies history. If healthy, it's difficult to find many comparable examples of someone putting up Williams stats and then falling short of a RB1 grade the following year.
I don't think it's that Stewart is in the backfield per say, I think it's that the team clearly identified the RB position as a position that they needed to address first and foremost in this past year's draft.
Like many things in the NFL, that was a very logical conclusion to make [i made the same one] when the Panthers took Stewart high and then Otah right behind him. But so many things don't pan out each year the way we, or the teams expected. The Panthers probably intended for Stewart to be the starter sooner rather than later, but no matter how they got there, the fact is Williams answered the bell with an MVP-like season. This wasn't the case of a guy like Chester Taylor or Justin Fargas putting together a "nice" season while keeping a young stud at bay, this is a case of a highly regarded back finally putting together a great season, and one that has only been matched by some of the best runners in league history. Big difference.
The Panthers clearly want to run the ball and had just lost Foster, who was their leading rusher the last 3 years. The biggest drawback to D-Will IMO was that he was unable to push Foster out before that and when the Panthers finally gave up on him they drafted a RB high. D-Will responded like Drew Brees and some other great players do, by showing his team that he should be the man. J-Stew isn't going anywhere, but neither is D-Will. This almost certainly will be a RBBC with somewhere around 2200 / 25 to go around, which is plenty for both even if it's a 50-50 split.

I don't know that I could draft D-Will in the top 10, over guys like Portis or Lynch, but if I'm drafting at the 1/2 turn, he's probably going to be on my team if available.

 
I heard on the radio that if Williams has a rushing TD tomorrow of 30 or more yards he will tie a record set by Jim Brown 50 yrs ago for the most TDs of 30+ yards. Do people honestly expect him to repeat numbers like that next season? Was everyone - including his own team who took Stewart with the 13th overall pick - wrong about Williams last year? He may be more talented then most thought he was a year ago, but there is no way he is as talented as some make him out to be today. He was an absolute steal in most fantasy drafts this past year, but he will be very overvalued next year.
I disagree and I thought he was the most all-around talented back in his draft class. MJD probably holds that distinction now, but D-Will does not lack the talent to be elite.
 
I think this year finally gave us the answer to a question that many had posed. Was Foster still the starter bc Fox thought he was better or because he's more loyal to vets and is slow to give 1st and 2nd year players the job? When Foster was brought in, many thought he looked better than S. Davis but he had to wait his turn. Then they drafted DeWill in the 1st round and everyone was convinced he'd have the starting job. Yet, he had to sit behind Foster for 2 years. Then, Carolina takes Stewart in the 1st round and many thought it was because he was the destined starter (much like DeWill 2 years earlier), and lo and behold, DeWill was the starter on day 1 and has remained there since then. Some may point that it was because of his performance, but in fact, DeWill started off the year quite slowly and didn't do anything to really "win" the job. Yet, it remained his and allowed him to put together the year he has.

I think at this point it can be reasonably concluded that Fox simply does not trust rookie and even 2nd year RB's to be lead ball carriers for his team even if they are outproducing the more veteran players. We've now seen this happen 3 times in a row. The argument that DeWill must not be good because he couldn't beat out Foster was incorrect, IMHO. He was clearly putting up better #'s, they shipped off Foster and kept DeWill, and despite the fact they drafted Stewart in the 1st round, I do NOT think it was because they did not think DeAngelo was up to the task. To me, this is simply how Fox does things. And if someone is arguing that DeWill's 2008 season is a fluke and that in his 1st 2 years he couldn't even beat out Foster, then I really think that's faulty thinking. The past several years in Carolina have proven that to be the case.

Foster was a 2nd round pick and did not get the starting job until his 3rd year despite outperforming S. Davis

DeWill was a 1st round pick and did not get the starting job until his 3rd year despite outperforming D. Foster

J. Stewart was a 1st round pick and did not get the starting job despite the fact that everyone thought DeWill wasn't even good enough to beat out Foster. Unless by injury or miracle, I don't see Stewart having the starting job until his 3rd year (at the earliest). However, I also think there's a good chance DeWill signs elsewhere after next year and it will be Stewart's job in that magical 3rd year. At that point, I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina drafts ANOTHER RB in the 1st/2nd round and we can have the same argument again.

 
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Let someone else pick him in the first round. I think he definitely has peaked this year and J. Stew will only be more involved as a 2nd year guy. They played a cake schedule too. AFC East and NFC North are pretty easy draws.

 

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