Where do you draft DeAngelo Williams next year? (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

Let someone else pick him in the first round. I think he definitely has peaked this year and J. Stew will only be more involved as a 2nd year guy. They played a cake schedule too. AFC East and NFC North are pretty easy draws.

I believe you meant AFC West (esp. since the AFC East is NOT an easy draw). Nonetheless, the NFC north does have 2 teams ranked in the top 4 in rush defense allowed and SD is 11th. That's also ignoring the fact he had to run against TB twice as well as the NYG. Also, the same could also be said about Turner but most aren't. And unlike Turner, DeWill didn't disappear against those better run defenses.

 

[Slider]

I gotta see what happens with Jordan Gross. Whether he re-signs with the Panthers will go a long way towards my thoughts on DeAngelo Williams next season.

 

[bostonfred]

I think this year finally gave us the answer to a question that many had posed. Was Foster still the starter bc Fox thought he was better or because he's more loyal to vets and is slow to give 1st and 2nd year players the job? When Foster was brought in, many thought he looked better than S. Davis but he had to wait his turn. Then they drafted DeWill in the 1st round but he had to sit behind Foster for 2 years. Then, Carolina takes Stewart in the 1st round and many thought it was because he was the destined starter (much like DeWill 2 years earlier), and lo and behold, DeWill was the starter on day 1 and has remained there since then. Some may point that it was because of his performance, but in fact, DeWill started off the year quite slowly and didn't do anything to really "win" the job. Yet, it remained his and allowed him to put together the year he has.I think at this point it can be reasonably concluded that Fox simply does not trust rookie and even 2nd year RB's to be lead ball carriers for his team even if they are outproducing the more veteran players. We've now seen this happen 3 times in a row. The argument that DeWill must not be good because he couldn't beat out Foster was incorrect, IMHO. He was clearly putting up better #'s, they shipped off Foster and kept DeWill, and despite the fact they drafted Stewart in the 1st round, I do NOT think it was because they did not think DeAngelo was up to the task. To me, this is simply how Fox does things. And if someone is arguing that DeWill's 2008 season is a fluke and that in his 1st 2 years he couldn't even beat out Foster, then I really think that's faulty thinking. The past several years in Carolina have proven that to be the case.Foster was a 2nd round pick and did not get the starting job until his 3rd year despite outperforming S. DavisDeWill was a 1st round pick and did not get the starting job until his 3rd despite outperforming D. FosterJ. Stewart was a 1st round pick and did not get the starting job despite the fact that everyone thought DeWill wasn't even good enough to beat out Foster. Unless by injury or miracle, I don't see Stewart having the starting job until his 3rd year (at the earliest). However, also a good chance DeWill signs elsewhere and it will be Stewart's. At that point, I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina drafts ANOTHER RB in the 1st/2nd round and we can have the same argument again.

I like this line of thinking a lot. I also think it's a good team management philosophy. We know that you need two RBs in the NFL. We also know that there are very few backs who can carry the load year after year without wearing down. And we also know that, while rookie backs can generally step in from day one in the NFL, they need time to improve at pass blocking, reading their blocks, and receiving. If you want to build a running/defense team, one good philosophy would be to continually replenish these guys, keep their value low early so you don't have to pay them a huge contract, then get rid of them when it becomes clear they've earned one.

 

[gianmarco]

Let someone else pick him in the first round. I think he definitely has peaked this year and J. Stew will only be more involved as a 2nd year guy. They played a cake schedule too. AFC East and NFC North are pretty easy draws.

Btw, this scheduling thing got me thinking and I wanted to look at the different divisions and how they ranked overall in rush defenses (ranked using YPG allowed). This is how they are ordered from best rush defenses to worst:1) NFC East (6th, 8th, 9th, 13th). Tough from top to bottom2) AFC East (7th, 10th, 12th, 19th)). Buffalo is below average but otherwise has 3 teams in the top 12. 3) AFC North/NFC North. Each division has 2 elite rush defenses (Pitt/Balt vs. Minn/Chicago) and 2 very bad rush defenses (Clev/Cincy vs. GB/Det)4) AFC South (5th, 14th, 23rd, 25th). One elite defense (Tenn), one average (Jax) and 2 poor defenses (Indy/Houston)5) NFC South/NFC West -- Both have all 4 teams that are average or below. NFC South (16th, 18th, 21st, 22nd) and NFC West (15th, 17th, 20th, 28th)6) AFC West -- One above average defense (SD--11th), and 3 of the worst defenses in the NFL (27th, 30th, 31st)Then, I looked at who played who. Here is how I would rank them in terms of easiest schedule to hardest schedule with the representative RB's)AFC East -- AFC West/NFC West (5th/6th) -- T. Jones, R. Brown/Ricky, K. Faulk/Morris, LynchNFC North -- NFC South/AFC South (4th/5th) -- AP, Forte, Grant, K. SmithNFC South -- AFC West/NFC North (6th/3rd) -- DeWill, Turner, Bush/P. Thomas, Graham/DunnNFC East -- AFC North/NFC West (3rd/5th) -- Portis, Jacobs/Ward, Barber, WestbrookAFC West -- NFC South/AFC East (5th/2nd) -- LT, LJ, Fargas/DMac, Denver stableAFC North -- AFC South/NFC East (5th/1st) -- J. Lewis, McGahee/McClain, Parker/M. Moore, BensonAFC South -- AFC North/NFC North (3rd/3rd) -- CJ3/LenDale, Addai/Rhodes, MJD/Taylor, SlatonNFC West -- NFC East/AFC East (1st/2nd) -- Gore, SJax, Hightower/Arrington, Morris/J. JonesIf you factor in their own division in who they faced, this is how it goes from easist to hardest (with the bottom 3 having it significantly worst than the top 5):NFC SouthAFC West/AFC EastNFC NorthAFC SouthNFC East/AFC NorthNFC WestLooking at this, you can draw a few generalized conclusions:1. It's good that Turner, DeWill, and Bush/PT have had good years but they've had pretty easy schedules overall compared to others. Just an FYI.2. LT's disappointing season looks worse considering he had a fairly easy rushing schedule, particularly getting to face 3 of the very worst rush defenses TWICE during the year.3. T. Jones has looked good but he's also benefitted from a nice schedule. Likewise, you could say Lynch should have done more than he has. It seems he may never be a true #1 RB. 4. AP and Forte benefited from decent schedules. Grant has also been relatively disappointing although he is in the top 10 in rushing yds in the NFL.5. What CJ3/MJD/Slaton have done given their rushing schedule is pretty impressive. Those 3 look to be for real and it's not surprising.6. Those NFC East RB's are studs. Portis/Westy/Barber/Jacobs are all at the top of the league and all of them faced pretty brutal schedules. Not only that, but those rushing defenses are amazing too since they have to all face these RB's. 7. Not only do the AFC North RB's mostly suck, but it doesn't help their schedule is pretty tough.8. Gore and SJax are truly studs to have produced what they did given their schedule. Out of conference games vs. AFC East/NFC East is brutal. 7 of those 8 teams are ranked 13th or better. At least they got to run against the NFC West, but still. Again, just some generalizations, but was fun to look at.

 

[SteelerMurf]

Let someone else pick him in the first round. I think he definitely has peaked this year and J. Stew will only be more involved as a 2nd year guy. They played a cake schedule too. AFC East and NFC North are pretty easy draws.

I believe you meant AFC West (esp. since the AFC East is NOT an easy draw). Nonetheless, the NFC north does have 2 teams ranked in the top 4 in rush defense allowed and SD is 11th. That's also ignoring the fact he had to run against TB twice as well as the NYG. Also, the same could also be said about Turner but most aren't. And unlike Turner, DeWill didn't disappear against those better run defenses.

You are right I meant AFC West.This was a cake schedule.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/schedule/CAR

Not sure what you are looking at saying that 2 teams out of Atlanta, NO, and TB are top 4 in rushing defense in the NFL

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?off...mp;d-447263-p=1

What I do see on there is that Carolina played 5 out of the bottom 7 rushing defenses. That's one out of about every 3 games against CAKE opponents.

All I am saying is he won't repeat these numbers. I see him as Willie Parker after his one great season where a ton of his stats came on long breakaway runs. I just don't think it's repeatable and he is really in a RBBC situation next year with JStew carrying much more of the load.

Instead of the easy schedule this year, next year they get the NFC East and AFC East (OUCH)

Again, I will let someone else use a first round pick on him.

 

[gianmarco]

Let someone else pick him in the first round. I think he definitely has peaked this year and J. Stew will only be more involved as a 2nd year guy. They played a cake schedule too. AFC East and NFC North are pretty easy draws.

I believe you meant AFC West (esp. since the AFC East is NOT an easy draw). Nonetheless, the NFC north does have 2 teams ranked in the top 4 in rush defense allowed and SD is 11th. That's also ignoring the fact he had to run against TB twice as well as the NYG. Also, the same could also be said about Turner but most aren't. And unlike Turner, DeWill didn't disappear against those better run defenses.

Not sure what you are looking at saying that 2 teams out of Atlanta, NO, and TB are top 4 in rushing defense in the NFL

You need to read more carefully. You already confused the AFC East and West earlier. I specifically said the NFC NORTH has 2 of the top defenses in the league. Carolina played the NFC North this year.

 

[SteelerMurf]

You need to read more carefully. You already confused the AFC East and West earlier. I specifically said the NFC NORTH has 2 of the top defenses in the league. Carolina played the NFC North this year.

Yep, read over that too fast (my brain is not at full speed with all this time off from work).....but my overall points still stand, even if they did have a couple tough matchups, its' proven in the nice breakdown post (not mine) that they had an easy schedule.

And I would guess next years will be one of the tougher with their schedule AFC East and NFC East

 

[gianmarco]

Yep, read over that too fast.....but my overall points still stand, even if they did have a couple tough matchups, its' proven in the nice breakdown post (not mine) that they had an easy schedule.And I would guess next years will be one of the tougher with their schedule AFC East and NFC East

Yes, I got your overall point and I pointed out above in that schedule analysis that he has indeed had one of the easiest schedules this year. At the same time, there are RB's EVERY year that have similarly easy schedules and they don't put up 5.4 ypc averages with 240 carries and score 20 TDs. Those #'s put him in ELITE company in the history of the NFL. Go look at the lists of the players that have accomplished either of those. The fact that he accomplished BOTH is even more impressive, easy schedule or not. To expect him to repeat those #'s would be foolish, but to think he'll fall out of the top 10 is also short-sighted as well if you're only reason is because "he had an easy schedule". He has a very good shot at repeating a top 5 finish and the guy has had a truly remarkable season. I think some people are writing him off way too quickly.

 

[:bag:]

This was posted in the Case for DeAngelo Williams thread, but it bears reposting despite it's dating:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writ...ek14/index.html

When the Panthers used their top pick in April's draft to select Jonathan Stewart, it was assumed the rookie would become the team's lead back with DeAngelo Williams continuing to contribute in a complementary role. But Williams' improvement as a runner, especially on inside runs, has resulted in a role reversal.

Williams has been the team's starter throughout the season and has thrived in the smash mouth attack. He's seventh on the rushing list with 955 yards, including five 100-yard games. He's also scored in five consecutive games, running his season total to 11.

His 16.1 carries per game are fewer than any rusher in the top 10 other than the Texans' Steve Slaton, but Williams has been effective with a light workload. His 4.9 yards per carry are fourth best among league leaders, and his 10 runs over 20 yards are the fifth-most in the league. Not surprisingly, Williams' success in his new role has scouts throughout the league singing his praises.

"He is the kind of runner that you want on your team," said an AFC personnel executive. "He is explosive and instinctive. He is strong enough to take the pounding, but also has the speed and quickness to take it the distance. People always talk about wanting 'big' backs, but he is the type of back that you build your team around. "

But what took so long? At least one Panthers official attributes it to patience, saying, "He had a horrible offensive line in college, so he had to create his big play opportunities. When he entered the league, he still didn't trust the offensive line and would try to bounce everything outside instead of staying with the play. As he has matured, he has learned how to stay on track and let his big plays come to him."

Williams, the Panthers' top pick in 2006, sat behind former starter DeShaun Foster for his first two seasons, despite flashing more big-play ability than his predecessor. While Foster average a respectable 3.5 yards per carry, Williams gained five yards per clip and produced six runs over 20 yards in 2007. Williams also produced two 100-yard games without starting a single game last season. In spite of his solid production as a back up, many wondered if Williams could carry the load as the team's starter heading into the 2008.

"There were questions about his toughness and ability to handle the workload," said a Panthers' official. "He wasn't a true inside runner, and didn't finish his runs with authority... I think that he has exceeded everyone's expectations in those aspects."

 

[Smarge]

Not sure how you could watch the guy this season and not believe he's an elite back. I can't wait to get the guy at #6 next year in a re-draft while lesser players like Lynch potentially go ahead of him.