Thanks for this information SSOG - having read alot of threads on the Broncos - I know that this posting should be accurate (excluding intangibles that no one can predict: injuries / trades / etc.)...
While we might disagree on your Edge and Lamont rankings... that is not the question at hand here...
I would like to know what you think of Mike Bell - for long term... i.e. do you think that one should jump on him at the end of the first round of [DYNASTY] rookie drafts (instead of Julius Norwood for example) or do you think that Shanny will be more than contempt to show that it's the system and not the runner - and that Bell stats that you are projecting above (with "rookie discount") will only last for one season?...
I know it's difficult to predict right now - but do you see Mike Bell differently than Orlandis Gary for one? (or Mike Anderson or Quentin Griffin... or even Terrell Davis / Clinton Portis to a certain extent)... is he going to be the main RB for '06 or for a few years in your opinion?
My stance on Dynasty is always that Denver's RBs are underrated in redraft and overrated in Dynasty. This year was the third straight season where Denver let their leading rusher leave town rather than pay him even a modest (for a starting RB) salary. They have enough confidence that they won't ever overpursue a player. Also, as a rule, Denver is always bringing in new RBs to compete for the job. It doesn't matter WHO they have at RB, whether it's Olandis Gary, Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, or Quentin Griffin... Denver always brings in more RBs.Mike Bell throws a bit of a wrench into this "overrated in dynasty" theory. He was an undrafted free agent, so he'll be DIRT CHEAP over the life of his contract. That gives a chance that he'll be starting for two or even three straight seasons. On the other hand, the fact that he won the starting job doesn't mean he's really good- it only means he's better than everything else Denver had on the roster. If they draft a solid RB next season, Mike Bell could go all Reuben Droughns on us and disappear into the sunset.
MBell is a big gamble. Denver has shown no loyalty to its runningbacks. Unlike guys like Bush, Tomlinson, Alexander, Johnson, etc, who all have significant resources tied up into them and are therefore practically guaranteed a starting job for years to come, Mike Bell has NOTHING to keep the team from cutting him or replacing him at any point. He's a gamble that could pay off spectacularly like Clinton Portis has in Dynasty leagues... but on the other hand, he could always go the way of Anderson, Gary, or Griffin. As a result, I'm sticking to my original position- as a Denver RB, he's underrated in redraft and overrated in Dynasty- although at this point in time, before he's ever gotten an NFL carry, it's all mostly speculation and guesswork.