Which ARZ WR is helped more by Edge? (1 Viewer)

[bocksheesh]

There is always a debate in an explosive passing offense when a real RB arrives as to whether it will improve or hurt the WRs numbers.

Does it keep defenses more honest thus freeing up the WRs? Or does it reduce their opportunities for targetting as well as redzone attempts?

I usually think it balances itself out. But what I also believe is that inevitably the arrival of a premiere RB - even if the run blocking still stinks - will cut into at least one of the WRs opportunities.

So the question is: does Edge's arrival in ARZ impact Fitzgerald or Boldin more based on their respective WR positions and route running?

I'm at a loss. Curious as to people's thoughts.

 

[redman]

This is a false choice IMHO. Why would one be helped (or hurt) any more than the other as a general matter?

 

[fatness]

James will score some TD's that, before he joined the team, would likely have gone to WR's. It's hard to see that as a help fantasy-wise.

 

[bocksheesh]

This is a false choice IMHO. Why would one be helped (or hurt) any more than the other as a general matter?

Well, that's the question. It could be, as you suggest, that neither are hurt or helped any more or less than the other.However, it's also possible that depending on the types of receptions Boldin and Fitzgerald had last season, one is more or less likely to be impacted.For instance, will the likelihood that Edge will get more redzone opportunities impact either of those WRs because one tended to get a lot of short yardage passing TDs?Or will the guy in the slot lose some opportunities because Edge is likely to get more screen and dump off passes?I don't know the answer to any of these questions. Curious if others do.

 

[bocksheesh]

James will score some TD's that, before he joined the team, would likely have gone to WR's. It's hard to see that as a help fantasy-wise.

I agree. So is that more likely to impact Fitzgerald or Boldin? Did one of those WRs tend to score more short yardage and/or jump-ball TDs last season than the other?

 

[TheLastDispatch]

Edge might score some TDs that otherwise would have gone to Boldin or Fitz, but with a respectable RB rather than a joke defenses will now have to pay attention to the run or be burned all day. This is why Edge's prescence will open up some room for Fitz and Boldin.

 

[redman]

James will score some TD's that, before he joined the team, would likely have gone to WR's. It's hard to see that as a help fantasy-wise.

You seem to think that there's a hard ceiling on TD's under which the team must operate. I don't necessarily agree. While I do think that the WR's last year benefitted from an extremely poor running game - maybe the worst one in the NFL - I think they can overall increase the number of TD's that they score, especially if they can keep Warner and Edge healthy. There were, after all, only two - that's right, two - TD's scored by RB's for the Cards all last year, and that's both running and receiving; they only scored 24 total TD's as an offense, or only 1.5 per game. Again, I think Boldin and Fitz will generally be good for the numbers they put up last year, with only slight declines given that 1) the team should be improved overall and have to pass less late in games to catch up, and 2) they have more and better offensive options. I don't see a way to predict one's stats changing more than the other's do.

 

[imeimex]

I see Boldin as the more possesion type receiver, although he is a stud and can do it all, but I think if anyone was to be hurt it would be him. I see Edge contributing to moving the ball down the field. Edge has never been a very good goalline back, but I think he will put the Cardinals into scoring position more often. Therefore if I had to pick one that Edge might help it would be Fitz, because he is a huge target in the red zone. Of course this is just my perception, and really is not backed by any statistical analysis.

 

[cstu]

I'm leaning toward both equally, but if I'd have to choose I'd say Fitz because it will be easier for him to get open in the endzone. Overall, I don't see Boldin or Fitz' numbers changes much from last year.

 

[SSOG]

Again, I think Boldin and Fitz will generally be good for the numbers they put up last year, with only slight declines given that 1) the team should be improved overall and have to pass less late in games to catch up, and 2) they have more and better offensive options. I don't see a way to predict one's stats changing more than the other's do.

The numbers they put up last year were HISTORIC. They became... what, the third 100-reception teammates? If you think the Arizona Pair are going to match those numbers, you probably thought that Peyton Manning was good for at least 40 TDs last season.Arizona passed 670 times and ran 360. That is *INSANE*, and that's not happening again. There is going to be a SERIOUS decline in WR production this season. The only reason Fitz and Boldin are still so high is we don't know who is due for the fall.Personally, I prefer Boldin. He's more of the deep threat, so if James causes defenders to play closer to the LoS, Boldin benefits while Fitz suffers. Boldin's also a much more proven commodity who, unless I'm mistaken, currently holds the NFL record for most receptions per game (a WHOPPING 6.475 catches per game *AVERAGE*, which pro-rates to an AVERAGE season of 104 catches). Oh, and Boldin's not the guy who was getting the red zone TDs.JMHO.

 

[bocksheesh]

Again, I think Boldin and Fitz will generally be good for the numbers they put up last year, with only slight declines given that 1) the team should be improved overall and have to pass less late in games to catch up, and 2) they have more and better offensive options. I don't see a way to predict one's stats changing more than the other's do.

The numbers they put up last year were HISTORIC. They became... what, the third 100-reception teammates? If you think the Arizona Pair are going to match those numbers, you probably thought that Peyton Manning was good for at least 40 TDs last season.Arizona passed 670 times and ran 360. That is *INSANE*, and that's not happening again. There is going to be a SERIOUS decline in WR production this season. The only reason Fitz and Boldin are still so high is we don't know who is due for the fall.Personally, I prefer Boldin. He's more of the deep threat, so if James causes defenders to play closer to the LoS, Boldin benefits while Fitz suffers. Boldin's also a much more proven commodity who, unless I'm mistaken, currently holds the NFL record for most receptions per game (a WHOPPING 6.475 catches per game *AVERAGE*, which pro-rates to an AVERAGE season of 104 catches). Oh, and Boldin's not the guy who was getting the red zone TDs.JMHO.

Now THAT'S a good bit of insight. Thanks SSOG. Exactly what I was looking for.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Again, I think Boldin and Fitz will generally be good for the numbers they put up last year, with only slight declines given that 1) the team should be improved overall and have to pass less late in games to catch up, and 2) they have more and better offensive options. I don't see a way to predict one's stats changing more than the other's do.

The numbers they put up last year were HISTORIC. They became... what, the third 100-reception teammates? If you think the Arizona Pair are going to match those numbers, you probably thought that Peyton Manning was good for at least 40 TDs last season.Arizona passed 670 times and ran 360. That is *INSANE*, and that's not happening again. There is going to be a SERIOUS decline in WR production this season. The only reason Fitz and Boldin are still so high is we don't know who is due for the fall.Personally, I prefer Boldin. He's more of the deep threat, so if James causes defenders to play closer to the LoS, Boldin benefits while Fitz suffers. Boldin's also a much more proven commodity who, unless I'm mistaken, currently holds the NFL record for most receptions per game (a WHOPPING 6.475 catches per game *AVERAGE*, which pro-rates to an AVERAGE season of 104 catches). Oh, and Boldin's not the guy who was getting the red zone TDs.JMHO.

i definitely disagree that these guys had historic seasons. Sure 100 catches apiece is a lot, but of the top ten receivers last year, they have the #8, and #9 ranked yards per catch. There is room there to cushion a drop in receptions. They had a combined 17 TDs. Thats it. I am pretty sure that isnt even in the top 20 for combined TDs by 2 teamates. There is definitely room for improvement there. Even drew bennett and derick mason combined for more TDs than that a couple years ago. These are great receivers. Having an all around better offense would only help them. The only way edge hurts them is if they still suck on offense and turn into a running team. With this talent, i dont see it happening. How many TDs did those Rams teams score? 60? i think the numbers they had last year are probable for this year, not a longshot.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

i definitely disagree that these guys had historic seasons. Sure 100 catches apiece is a lot, but of the top ten receivers last year, they have the #8, and #9 ranked yards per catch. There is room there to cushion a drop in receptions. They had a combined 17 TDs. Thats it. I am pretty sure that isnt even in the top 20 for combined TDs by 2 teamates. There is definitely room for improvement there. Even drew bennett and derick mason combined for more TDs than that a couple years ago.

These are great receivers. Having an all around better offense would only help them. The only way edge hurts them is if they still suck on offense and turn into a running team. With this talent, i dont see it happening. How many TDs did those Rams teams score? 60? i think the numbers they had last year are probable for this year, not a longshot.

Edge will help Arizona establish a higher rate of scoring drives than they had last year. He might take a few TDs that otherwise would have gone to Fitz or Boldin, but with a higher scoring rate Fitz and Boldin will still see more TDs. Fitz and Boldin's reception totals may go down, but overall they should benefit from the increase in scoring and longer drives.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

Personally, I prefer Boldin. He's more of the deep threat, so if James causes defenders to play closer to the LoS, Boldin benefits while Fitz suffers. Boldin's also a much more proven commodity who, unless I'm mistaken, currently holds the NFL record for most receptions per game (a WHOPPING 6.475 catches per game *AVERAGE*, which pro-rates to an AVERAGE season of 104 catches). Oh, and Boldin's not the guy who was getting the red zone TDs.JMHO.

Fitz posted 27 catches of 20+ yards and 4 of 40+ yards. Boldin posted 21 of 20+ and 5 of 40+. Doesn't really support Boldin being more of a deep threat.

 

[nflguru]

I think it may hurt both of them.. Reasons being:

1. If they can successfully run the football then the clock will tick tick tick..

2. Rushing tds will take away from the short yardage passes

3. If they are actually winning and not coming from behind all of the time, they will run the ball and clock

I like both receivers and had Boldin last season.. Each week it was a crap shoot as to which wr would have the monster numbers.. As you can see they were close with 3 tds more on the part of Fitz.

Fitz 103 rec, 1409 yds, 10 tds

Bol 102 rec, 1402 yds, 7 tds

What kind of projections are expected with these two? I haven't really looked into this, just wondering if there are any out there that go above or below the 2005 numbers.

 

[Shiver44]

- James takes away touchdowns and pass attempts.

- Leonard Pope takes away red zone touchdowns.

- The scoring defense will meet the yardage defense, and that means even fewer passes.

- When Warner is injured, Leinart will limit their value.

What it comes down to is I doubt either Fitzgerald or Boldin will even come close to last year's totals. They will not produce elite numbers this year.

 

[intrinsic]

stud running back comes to a team with great receivers and no running game. can anyone think of a team this happened to in the past to draw any comparisons to?

 

[Gopher State]

No doubt both WR numbers will go down this year with Edge in the back field. Edge is a good pass receiver and goal line back. I don't think either WR will finish in the top ten wr class this year.

 

[flooredyas]

I say the answer is neither. Rackers is the one whose numbers will take a tumble. The Cards will score much more than in the past, room for all 3 of these guys to excell. The one thing that casts a shadow is the quality of Navarre as the backup QB. Leinert by holding out is losing ground daily. McCown proved very serviceable last year. Warners health is critical.

 

[MLBrandow]

If I had to pick one, I'd say Boldin, since he will see more targets.

 

[kutta]

It is very hard to predict which WR will suffer a decline, if either, but here are some thoughts:

1. There were at least two times last year that I remember where Boldin lined up in the backfield and scored a TD. There could have been more. I suspect we won't be seeing much of that this year.

2. I agree that Rackers is the one who will see a decrease. The Cards had lots of trouble moving the ball in the red zone last year. Getting those first downs on third and fourth and short will only help the TD production of the team. They not only couldn't convert in the redzone, but they could not convert any third and shorts last year. They should see a big increase in sustained drives, which will help support the total team TD's.

3. I don't see the WR TD totals going down - I see the RB TD totals going up. There is no reason why the Cards can't support the same WR TD's as last year, as well as an additional 8 rushing TD's.

4. It is quite possible that the WR numbers go up this year. Last year the WR's were doubled every single down. Teams would drop 7 or 8 guys in coverage, and the WR's still put up crazy numbers. I can't wait to see what Bodlin and Fitz will do with single converage because there is no way teams will be able to drop everyone back this year.

5. The danger here is if Warner gets hurt. That could REALLY hurt the offense, and Boldin and Fitz would suffer.

6. The talk around camp is that Pope is looking really good and they are expecting him to contribute this year. This team has never had a TE, so it will be interesting to see if he affects the numbers or steals some TDs.

 

[videoguy505]

Wasn't Fitz targeted more on TD passes once the Cards were inside the 20? Both got opportunities outside of the red zone, but my impression was Fitz was the one that was looked to once they got close, and it's those TDs that will go to Edge.