What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Which Bust reason do you ignore the most? (1 Viewer)

Which Bust reason do you ignore the most?

  • Injury history

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Character issue

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Speed

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • BMI

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    0
voted injury history because it's so unpredictable.

I'm not a huge fan of the BMi stuff though, and tend to ignore BMI entirely for WRs and all but ignore it for RB's

 
Injury History.

Though sometimes i just got a hunch to stay away from a player cause i got a feeling he's gonna get injured. This year that player is ADP :goodposting:

 
I'm flabbergasted that Injury history is tied for the lead. I guess those 5 voters haven't been burned by the bum knee or chronic ######l pain.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Speed...

So many guys have sub par 40 times at Combines or otherwise (Anquan Boldin, Jerry Rice, Chad Johnson IIRC) but there's a big difference between 40 Yard Dash with no equipment and football speed. I'll take the guy with the 4.50-4.55 40 who looks much faster on the field over the 4.45 40 yard guy who trained himself for it but still looks average on the field.

My answer was more aimed at incoming rookies though I'm unsure if you're talking rookies or everybody in the NFL.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
awesomeness said:
Hoss_Cartwright said:
awesomeness said:
Injury History. Though sometimes i just got a hunch to stay away from a player cause i got a feeling he's gonna get injured. This year that player is ADP :goodposting:
Click to expand...
or ______________ (fill in the many thousands of names). Lately that could be Malcom Kelly.
Click to expand...
so at 1.2 last year you took Stephen Jackson? Well im the guy who took Westbrook at 1.5.
Click to expand...
what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?
 
Hoss_Cartwright said:
I'm flabbergasted that Injury history is tied for the lead. I guess those 5 voters haven't been burned by the bum knee or chronic ######l pain.
Click to expand...
Sure I've been burned...but I've also stolen many players that way.But to be clear...I read this as HISTORY. If a player is still recovering or hurt at draft time (not yet proven they are back healthy), that's an entirely different ball of wax.

I suspect most voting injury history are viewing it the same way.

 
Very interesting thing we have going here. I didn't realize it when I posted this thread, but it does open my eyes on a lot of things. It answers some of what owners think when they draft rookies in dynasty leagues and /or draft in redraft leagues. I wish I would have made a distinction in the thread title. Character issues probably means more in dynasty leagues than redraft leagues. Speed probably means the same for both, BMI leans more toward redraft leagues, and injury history means more to redraft leagues, with a disclaimer. It means a lot to dynasty leagues if the very thought of the injury lingering exits. Especially if it involves anything below the belt.

 
Even though BMI does a good of explaining difference like short and small, there are not enough of ALL RBs in the NFL outside of the target BMI range to be of any predictive use.

 
Chronic injuries, maybe. But that's it.

I think every situation is different and it's hard to put a generic label over a specific situation.

 
Got to be BMI for me, as there are positions where it just doesn't matter - or at least there are other things that sem more important:

K, QB, IDP's - I've never seen BMI touted for any of them, so by default they would be ignored if I saw them.

 
I love drafting guys with attitude problems or something to prove. Like drafting a wild horse before is broken. With the right situation they can turn into a stud.

 
Character for me. If you can play, you can play. What do I really care if a guy is a turd in real life?

And in the grand sceme, relatively few guys that you could tag with "character issues" ever see a game of suspension due to that fact that it's not even worth considering to me.

 
Anthony Borbely said:
Chronic injuries, maybe. But that's it. I think every situation is different and it's hard to put a generic label over a specific situation.
Click to expand...
I also consider whether the player has sat for many injuries or if he's able to play through them. Take Westbrook, seems the guy is almost always banged up, yet he plays. OTOH, take Jeremy Shockey, it might be my perception, but he seems to miss time for injuries where other players would play.
 
Anthony Borbely said:
Chronic injuries, maybe. But that's it.



I think every situation is different and it's hard to put a generic label over a specific situation.
Click to expand...
Exactly. Every player should be evaluated independently and on his very individual situation. For one a lack of speed could be the killer, for another character could be the problem, and another could have serious injury issues. On the other hand a player could be so skilled we overlook his lack of speed, or research a character problem to find it is mostly meaningless, or the injury history is nothing major just fluky. One case at a time. Draw your best conclusions. Favor no particular issue over the others.
 
Hoss_Cartwright said:
It answers some of what owners think when they draft rookies in dynasty leagues and /or draft in redraft leagues. I wish I would have made a distinction in the thread title. Character issues probably means more in dynasty leagues than redraft leagues. Speed probably means the same for both, BMI leans more toward redraft leagues, and injury history means more to redraft leagues, with a disclaimer. It means a lot to dynasty leagues if the very thought of the injury lingering exits. Especially if it involves anything below the belt.
Click to expand...
BMI matters more in dynasty leagues, IMO... the primary benefit is figuring out which RBs have workhorse capacity and which don't. In a redraft league, BMI is trumped by opportunity. BMI matters for WRs, but its usefulness is more limited.
 
Since I have no idea wtf BMI even is and never even heard of it before it became some weird trendy thing here this year, that's the easy choice.

 
Speed. I was a player that never ran track. Was never taught technique. Never timed a 40 better than 4.8, but was always faster in pads, on the field, than guys who timed .2-.3 faster than me (never could catch those 4.4 f***ers though). I relate to those who are undervalued because of what a stopwatch says about you in shorts.

 
I read an article that said the five most common reasons for a player to bust is

1. age

2. coming off a career year after compiling mediocre stats for most of their career

3. major competition brought in for their job either in the draft or free agency

4. had a major injury the previous season

5. switched teams and the new team is much less talented than the old

A lot of times, your fellow fantasy GMs won't be aware of negative developments like this, causing the player in question to be drafted far higher than they should.

Under this criteria the following players are risks:

Wes Welker - 2

Javon Walker - 5

Willie Parker - 3

DeAngelo Williams - 3

Also

Derek Anderson - 2

Edgerrin James - 1

John Kitna - 1

Derrick Mason - 3

Reggie Williams - 4

Joey Galloway - 1

Bobby Engram - 2

 
Last edited by a moderator:
kaa said:
I read an article that said the five most common reasons for a player to bust is

1. age

2. coming off a career year after compiling mediocre stats for most of their career

3. major competition brought in for their job either in the draft or free agency

4. had a major injury the previous season

5. switched teams and the new team is much less talented than the old

Derek Anderson - 2

Edgerrin James - 1

John Kitna - 1

Derrick Mason - 3, 1

Reggie Williams - 4

Joey Galloway - 1

Bobby Engram - 2, 1, 4
Click to expand...
 
kaa said:
I read an article that said the five most common reasons for a player to bust is1. age2. coming off a career year after compiling mediocre stats for most of their career3. major competition brought in for their job either in the draft or free agency4. had a major injury the previous season5. switched teams and the new team is much less talented than the oldA lot of times, your fellow fantasy GMs won't be aware of negative developments like this, causing the player in question to be drafted far higher than they should.Under this criteria the following players are risks:Wes Welker - 2Javon Walker - 5Willie Parker - 3DeAngelo Williams - 3Also Derek Anderson - 2Edgerrin James - 1John Kitna - 1Derrick Mason - 3Reggie Williams - 4Joey Galloway - 1Bobby Engram - 2
Click to expand...
DeAngelo and Javon are going in the 9th and 14th rounds in 10 team drafts, pretty hard for them to be 'busts'. DA had 3 starts and 5 games in his career at QB, not nearly enough time to talk about his career.
 
FUBAR said:
Anthony Borbely said:
Chronic injuries, maybe. But that's it. I think every situation is different and it's hard to put a generic label over a specific situation.
Click to expand...
I also consider whether the player has sat for many injuries or if he's able to play through them. Take Westbrook, seems the guy is almost always banged up, yet he plays. OTOH, take Jeremy Shockey, it might be my perception, but he seems to miss time for injuries where other players would play.
Click to expand...
15915151514not a guy who misses a lot of time. I don't like shockey, but hes no #####.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

JohnnyU
The Psychology Behind Trading
4 5 6
Replies
274
Views
5K
Chaka
Chaka
Joe Bryant
An Apology - Building And Creating A Better Shark Pool
3 4 5
Replies
200
Views
6K
Dan Lambskin
Dan Lambskin
Joe Bryant
Tell Us About Your Home League!
Replies
27
Views
932
Joey Wright
Joey Wright

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top