Which of the 2nd year QBs will you draft as your QB1 (1 Viewer)

[mlball77]

I can't believe Vince Young is getting fewer votes than Leinart and Cutler. You have to believe he will rush for 500-700 yards and at least 5 TD's. That separates him from Leinart and Cutler, because he can have pedestrian passing stats and still put up solid fantasy numbers.

2800 passing + 600 rushing = 4000 passing.

Please breakdown which players will catch what to total 2800 receiving yards in Tennessee.

In all fairness, Young passed for 1437 yards in his last eight games, along with 7 TDs, 6 INTs... and ran for 415 yards and 5 TDs.

I don't think its a huge stretch to project him to throw for 2800 yards in 07 if you aren't projecting some sort of injury etc.

I love it when people take a great half season and then adapt that to the "norm" or "baseline" moving forward. Do people actually expect VY to run for 830 yards and 10 TD?

1. I did not say Young would rush for 830 and 10.2. Young didn't start the first few games of last year and, imo, should be 'given' his first few games started since he was a rookie and learning a ton. Just my opinion. I didn't pick and choose what games to use with Young, I took half of a season starting, which looks to have included some good and bad D's... and thats all we really have to work with. Its not like I cherry picked his last 4 games or something... Young's sample size is small, no argument there, but we don't have a ton to work with right now.

3. I believe that using the second half of 2006 for an idea of what one might expect for Young in 07 is at least as strong as an argument to make on his behalf as saying, "Who does he have to throw to?", is for an argument against him.

4. Tenn passed for nearly 2600 yards last year and 200 more yards doesn't seem like a ton to me personally. I have already conceded that I think its fair to question this with some of the pieces they have lost, but I also think one could argue that a little more experience for Young should counteract such losses.

5. My general point was not that Young would post 2800 passing yards in 07, but that it wasn't outlandish at all, and I stick to such. We can agree to disgree on that matter I suppose. Either way, I was merely participating in what I feel was an interesting conversation and think your level of condescension was not even close to the excellence the staff here should be promoting. Just my opinion.

 

[-OZ-]

I can't believe Vince Young is getting fewer votes than Leinart and Cutler. You have to believe he will rush for 500-700 yards and at least 5 TD's. That separates him from Leinart and Cutler, because he can have pedestrian passing stats and still put up solid fantasy numbers.



I'm starting to think the SHARK play is to wait even longer and grab 2 of these guys late-Young and Leinart or Romo)

The only problem is foreseeing their inconsistency. One of the biggest frustrations I faced last year was judging which of my youngish WRs would have a bad game. I was horrible at judging, as I benched Lee Evans for his 265/2 game, Roy Williams for a couple of his big games, Braylon Edwards for his good streak, and even Hines Ward for his monster game last year. Now, I might just be bad at this game, but I don't think that's the case. Maybe QBs are easier to tell, but I don't think any of these 3 will be this year.

That said, in my main league, VY is my 1a with Ben Roethlisberger my 1b. In a redraft, I can see getting the same two by waiting, and I like the combo very much.

Or did you just intend to play the QB who is performing better throughout the year?

 

[SSOG]

I can't believe Vince Young is getting fewer votes than Leinart and Cutler. You have to believe he will rush for 500-700 yards and at least 5 TD's. That separates him from Leinart and Cutler, because he can have pedestrian passing stats and still put up solid fantasy numbers.

2800 passing + 600 rushing = 4000 passing.

Please breakdown which players will catch what to total 2800 receiving yards in Tennessee.

Doesn't matter- do you really think that Leinart or Cutler are going to pass for 4,000? I was just giving an example of how an otherwise awful passing season could still be a phenomenal fantasy season thanks to strong rushing value.Besides, only 10 teams in the past 4 years have passed for less than 2800 yards- that's just 2.5 a year. I suppose you could bet on Tennessee being one of the bottom two passing offenses in the league, but statistically, the odds are strongly against it. Last season, if you asked everyone which teams would fail to break the 2800 yards passing mark, I'm sure a lot of people would have guessed Buffalo (3051), San Fran (2890), or Oakland (2850), maybe Chicago (3446) or Houston (3032), and all of them would have been wrong. I don't think 2800 yards passing is that unreasonable of a projection, unless you're expecting Young to get hurt.No matter how putrid an offense looks to be, it's more likely to NOT be bottom 2 than it is to be bottom 2. In fact, I'll make you a gentleman's wager- if Tennessee finishes 31st or 32nd in passing, you win, and if Tennessee finishes 30th, 29th, 28th, 27th, 26th, or better, then I win. Or, if you'd rather, then if Tennessee as a team passes for less than 2800 yards, you win, and if they go for more than 2800 yards, I win. Is that the sort of bet you'd be willing to lay money on at even odds if you were in Vegas?

 

[David Yudkin]

I can't believe Vince Young is getting fewer votes than Leinart and Cutler. You have to believe he will rush for 500-700 yards and at least 5 TD's. That separates him from Leinart and Cutler, because he can have pedestrian passing stats and still put up solid fantasy numbers.

2800 passing + 600 rushing = 4000 passing.

Please breakdown which players will catch what to total 2800 receiving yards in Tennessee.

Doesn't matter- do you really think that Leinart or Cutler are going to pass for 4,000? I was just giving an example of how an otherwise awful passing season could still be a phenomenal fantasy season thanks to strong rushing value.Besides, only 10 teams in the past 4 years have passed for less than 2800 yards- that's just 2.5 a year. I suppose you could bet on Tennessee being one of the bottom two passing offenses in the league, but statistically, the odds are strongly against it. Last season, if you asked everyone which teams would fail to break the 2800 yards passing mark, I'm sure a lot of people would have guessed Buffalo (3051), San Fran (2890), or Oakland (2850), maybe Chicago (3446) or Houston (3032), and all of them would have been wrong. I don't think 2800 yards passing is that unreasonable of a projection, unless you're expecting Young to get hurt.No matter how putrid an offense looks to be, it's more likely to NOT be bottom 2 than it is to be bottom 2. In fact, I'll make you a gentleman's wager- if Tennessee finishes 31st or 32nd in passing, you win, and if Tennessee finishes 30th, 29th, 28th, 27th, 26th, or better, then I win. Or, if you'd rather, then if Tennessee as a team passes for less than 2800 yards, you win, and if they go for more than 2800 yards, I win. Is that the sort of bet you'd be willing to lay money on at even odds if you were in Vegas?

All I care about is what Young did, not what the Titans did, for passing yards. In the past 10 years, there have been 171 QB that have thrown for 2,800 yards in a season. With a total of 313 team seasons, that means that 45% of the time a team DOES NOT have a QB throw for 2,800 yards regardless of who the receivers are.Again, ignoring the receivers, there have been 18 QB that have rushing for 500 yards in a season in the past 20 years and 8 did not reach 2800 yards passing. I'm not saying it's impossible for Young to get 2,800 yards passing, but we've been saying the same thing about Michael Vick, and he has only done it one time in 6 years.

 

[Hawk]

I would not be surprised if Vince runs for 800 yards, though my projection would be 600. 10 rushing TD's is unlikely, but I'd say anything fewer than 5 rushing TD's over a 16 game span for Vince is also unlikely, especially at this stage of his career.

As for 2,800 yards receiving:

B.Jones 800 yards

Rest of WR's 1,000 yards

TE's 700 yards

RB's 300 yards

Doesnt seem too far fetched to me. Because of his rushing ability, I think Vince has the best shot of the 2nd year QB's to be top 10. He was also pretty consistent last year scoring at least one passing or rushing TD in nearly every game he started. So I would feel better relying on him as a QB1 than Leinart or Cutler, though Leinart would be my second choice and he has a good shot at being a top 10 QB as well. I say this assuming its a 4 pt per passing TD league. In a 6 point per passing TD league, I might favor Leinart a little over Young due to the quality of Leinart's WR's.

 

[BassNBrew]

I can't believe Vince Young is getting fewer votes than Leinart and Cutler. You have to believe he will rush for 500-700 yards and at least 5 TD's. That separates him from Leinart and Cutler, because he can have pedestrian passing stats and still put up solid fantasy numbers.

2800 passing + 600 rushing = 4000 passing.

Big Rushing QB with zero help from skill positions players = Stretcher

Michael Vick down? Randall Cunningham down? Donovan McNabb down?Soon to be downtown.Down.Down the last couple of years.

 

[-OZ-]

I can't believe Vince Young is getting fewer votes than Leinart and Cutler. You have to believe he will rush for 500-700 yards and at least 5 TD's. That separates him from Leinart and Cutler, because he can have pedestrian passing stats and still put up solid fantasy numbers.

2800 passing + 600 rushing = 4000 passing.

Big Rushing QB with zero help from skill positions players = Stretcher

Michael Vick down? Randall Cunningham down? Donovan McNabb down?Soon to be downtown. - Nothing to do with VY. VY is the anti-VickDown. Well, now he is. Down the last couple of years. true, not the comparison I would want to prove how VY won't get injured. McNabb has only played 16 regular season games in 3 of his 8 seasons. Yet, McNabb is the closest we have to VY. VY is actually lankier and quicker

 

[waylander]

I'm going with Vince here, for all the reasons already mentioned.

As far as the little jab at the guy about going by the last 8 games of VY's season, I think you missed his point. He wasn't doing that to illustrate a norm, he was doing that to illustrate progression.

If any of you truly feel that VY's rookie numbers are his ceiling, then you might want to quit FF because you have no eye for talent.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

If any of these are your QB1 in a 6pt TD pass league you've dropped the ball in your draft.

In our league (6pt /TD), Cutler was top ten in PPG LAST year as a rookie.

 

[LordofTheBling]

Vince Young is on the cover of Madden this year so don't even bother with him.

 

[SSOG]

I can't believe Vince Young is getting fewer votes than Leinart and Cutler. You have to believe he will rush for 500-700 yards and at least 5 TD's. That separates him from Leinart and Cutler, because he can have pedestrian passing stats and still put up solid fantasy numbers.

2800 passing + 600 rushing = 4000 passing.

Please breakdown which players will catch what to total 2800 receiving yards in Tennessee.

Doesn't matter- do you really think that Leinart or Cutler are going to pass for 4,000? I was just giving an example of how an otherwise awful passing season could still be a phenomenal fantasy season thanks to strong rushing value.Besides, only 10 teams in the past 4 years have passed for less than 2800 yards- that's just 2.5 a year. I suppose you could bet on Tennessee being one of the bottom two passing offenses in the league, but statistically, the odds are strongly against it. Last season, if you asked everyone which teams would fail to break the 2800 yards passing mark, I'm sure a lot of people would have guessed Buffalo (3051), San Fran (2890), or Oakland (2850), maybe Chicago (3446) or Houston (3032), and all of them would have been wrong. I don't think 2800 yards passing is that unreasonable of a projection, unless you're expecting Young to get hurt.No matter how putrid an offense looks to be, it's more likely to NOT be bottom 2 than it is to be bottom 2. In fact, I'll make you a gentleman's wager- if Tennessee finishes 31st or 32nd in passing, you win, and if Tennessee finishes 30th, 29th, 28th, 27th, 26th, or better, then I win. Or, if you'd rather, then if Tennessee as a team passes for less than 2800 yards, you win, and if they go for more than 2800 yards, I win. Is that the sort of bet you'd be willing to lay money on at even odds if you were in Vegas?

All I care about is what Young did, not what the Titans did, for passing yards. In the past 10 years, there have been 171 QB that have thrown for 2,800 yards in a season. With a total of 313 team seasons, that means that 45% of the time a team DOES NOT have a QB throw for 2,800 yards regardless of who the receivers are.Again, ignoring the receivers, there have been 18 QB that have rushing for 500 yards in a season in the past 20 years and 8 did not reach 2800 yards passing. I'm not saying it's impossible for Young to get 2,800 yards passing, but we've been saying the same thing about Michael Vick, and he has only done it one time in 6 years.

Unless you are predicting Vince Young is going to get injured (a questionable practice, in my mind), or unless you project that someone else is going to get some playtime over him (a questionable prediction, in my mind), then there is no difference between what Young passes for and what Tennessee passes for.

 

[Futeki]

I can't believe Vince Young is getting fewer votes than Leinart and Cutler. You have to believe he will rush for 500-700 yards and at least 5 TD's. That separates him from Leinart and Cutler, because he can have pedestrian passing stats and still put up solid fantasy numbers.

2800 passing + 600 rushing = 4000 passing.

Please breakdown which players will catch what to total 2800 receiving yards in Tennessee.

Doesn't matter- do you really think that Leinart or Cutler are going to pass for 4,000? I was just giving an example of how an otherwise awful passing season could still be a phenomenal fantasy season thanks to strong rushing value.Besides, only 10 teams in the past 4 years have passed for less than 2800 yards- that's just 2.5 a year. I suppose you could bet on Tennessee being one of the bottom two passing offenses in the league, but statistically, the odds are strongly against it. Last season, if you asked everyone which teams would fail to break the 2800 yards passing mark, I'm sure a lot of people would have guessed Buffalo (3051), San Fran (2890), or Oakland (2850), maybe Chicago (3446) or Houston (3032), and all of them would have been wrong. I don't think 2800 yards passing is that unreasonable of a projection, unless you're expecting Young to get hurt.No matter how putrid an offense looks to be, it's more likely to NOT be bottom 2 than it is to be bottom 2. In fact, I'll make you a gentleman's wager- if Tennessee finishes 31st or 32nd in passing, you win, and if Tennessee finishes 30th, 29th, 28th, 27th, 26th, or better, then I win. Or, if you'd rather, then if Tennessee as a team passes for less than 2800 yards, you win, and if they go for more than 2800 yards, I win. Is that the sort of bet you'd be willing to lay money on at even odds if you were in Vegas?

All I care about is what Young did, not what the Titans did, for passing yards. In the past 10 years, there have been 171 QB that have thrown for 2,800 yards in a season. With a total of 313 team seasons, that means that 45% of the time a team DOES NOT have a QB throw for 2,800 yards regardless of who the receivers are.Again, ignoring the receivers, there have been 18 QB that have rushing for 500 yards in a season in the past 20 years and 8 did not reach 2800 yards passing. I'm not saying it's impossible for Young to get 2,800 yards passing, but we've been saying the same thing about Michael Vick, and he has only done it one time in 6 years.

Unless you are predicting Vince Young is going to get injured (a questionable practice, in my mind), or unless you project that someone else is going to get some playtime over him (a questionable prediction, in my mind), then there is no difference between what Young passes for and what Tennessee passes for.

Throw out all of the seasons that a team had more than one starter and see what the stats look like. Alternatively, only look at team's overall passing stats. Anything else means you expect injury or Young getting benched.The Eagles didn't have a QB throw for 2800 yards last year, yet the team passed for over 4k...

 

[Captain Quinoa]

Here's the problem with Young - he is going to have some really good games and some REALLY bad games. And you have no idea when they will be. QB rushing (especially TD's) is just too inconsistent to predict game to game. I'm personally not comfortable with a guy who might put up 92 yds passing being my QB. Survivor league I'd take him no problem.

At least with Leinart and Cutler you can play matchups and expect a certain amount of production. Not to mention they have much better weapons around them.

 

[PsychoMan]

I know Romo & Rivers aren't technically 2nd year QB's (just their 2nd year starting) but how would you feel about one of them as your #1 with say Ben, Favre or Eli as backup...

Grossman should be included in this discussion as well.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Here's the problem with Young - he is going to have some really good games and some REALLY bad games. And you have no idea when they will be. QB rushing (especially TD's) is just too inconsistent to predict game to game.

Do you have any evidence for this- or is this just hunch? Vick was extremely consistent last year in terms of FF scoring .If you define a bad game as sub 8 point game, in my 6pt all td league here is a look at the number of bad games:Vick: 2Young: 4 (includes week 1 when he barely played)Leinart:3Palmer: 3Brees: 3Bulger: 3 Most QB's have some really bad games. It is just when Vick or Young has them, people say- "That's running QB's for you", and when Brees or Palmer has them people say "Bad break- that doesn't happen often."

 

[Hawk]

Here's the problem with Young - he is going to have some really good games and some REALLY bad games. And you have no idea when they will be. QB rushing (especially TD's) is just too inconsistent to predict game to game.

Do you have any evidence for this- or is this just hunch? Vick was extremely consistent last year in terms of FF scoring .If you define a bad game as sub 8 point game, in my 6pt all td league here is a look at the number of bad games:Vick: 2Young: 4 (includes week 1 when he barely played)Leinart:3Palmer: 3Brees: 3Bulger: 3 Most QB's have some really bad games. It is just when Vick or Young has them, people say- "That's running QB's for you", and when Brees or Palmer has them people say "Bad break- that doesn't happen often."

Doesn;t make much sense to include week 1 for Vince when he wasn't the starter and barely played. As a starter, Vince had only 3 games under 10 fantasy points, one was his first start against Dallas, and the other two were against Jax who seemed to have his number last year.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

Here's the problem with Young - he is going to have some really good games and some REALLY bad games. And you have no idea when they will be. QB rushing (especially TD's) is just too inconsistent to predict game to game.

Do you have any evidence for this- or is this just hunch? Vick was extremely consistent last year in terms of FF scoring .If you define a bad game as sub 8 point game, in my 6pt all td league here is a look at the number of bad games:Vick: 2Young: 4 (includes week 1 when he barely played)Leinart:3Palmer: 3Brees: 3Bulger: 3 Most QB's have some really bad games. It is just when Vick or Young has them, people say- "That's running QB's for you", and when Brees or Palmer has them people say "Bad break- that doesn't happen often."

Doesn;t make much sense to include week 1 for Vince when he wasn't the starter and barely played. As a starter, Vince had only 3 games under 10 fantasy points, one was his first start against Dallas, and the other two were against Jax who seemed to have his number last year.

Likewise, doesn't make much sense to include Leinart's first action vs Atlanta or the last game vs SF where he got knocked out in the first half after throwing for 162 yards and a TD.8 points, 10 points --- what's with these arbitrary cutoffs? Please post VY and ML game by game scoring. And putting words in people's mouths is not a good way to make your point.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Here's the problem with Young - he is going to have some really good games and some REALLY bad games. And you have no idea when they will be. QB rushing (especially TD's) is just too inconsistent to predict game to game.

Do you have any evidence for this- or is this just hunch? Vick was extremely consistent last year in terms of FF scoring .If you define a bad game as sub 8 point game, in my 6pt all td league here is a look at the number of bad games:Vick: 2Young: 4 (includes week 1 when he barely played)Leinart:3Palmer: 3Brees: 3Bulger: 3 Most QB's have some really bad games. It is just when Vick or Young has them, people say- "That's running QB's for you", and when Brees or Palmer has them people say "Bad break- that doesn't happen often."

Doesn;t make much sense to include week 1 for Vince when he wasn't the starter and barely played. As a starter, Vince had only 3 games under 10 fantasy points, one was his first start against Dallas, and the other two were against Jax who seemed to have his number last year.

Likewise, doesn't make much sense to include Leinart's first action vs Atlanta or the last game vs SF where he got knocked out in the first half after throwing for 162 yards and a TD.8 points, 10 points --- what's with these arbitrary cutoffs? Please post VY and ML game by game scoring. And putting words in people's mouths is not a good way to make your point.

I am guessing ML is Matt Leinart? This is th scoring in my 6 points per TD/ -3 turnover league: VY MLW1 -1.92 -w2 12.64 -w3 - -w4 5.50 -4.7w5 9.82 19.52w6 13.44 18.28w7 B 2.62w8 19.88 9.48w9 4.92 Bw10 15.34 10.44w11 14.94 21.52w12 31.86 16.20w13 20.32 13.44w14 20.32 17.98w15 3.80 4.86w16 31.42 12.48w17 8.98 -I wasn't cherry picking numbers-How do you want to define bad game? <10Vick: 2Young: 6 (includes week 1 when he barely played)Leinart:4 (1 game not starter per CQ)Palmer: 4Brees: 4Bulger: 4Games <6Vick: 2Young: 4 (includes week 1 when he barely played)Leinart:3 (1 game not starter per CQ)Palmer: 3Brees: 2Bulger: 2

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Likewise, doesn't make much sense to include Leinart's first action vs Atlanta or the last game vs SF where he got knocked out in the first half after throwing for 162 yards and a TD.8 points, 10 points --- what's with these arbitrary cutoffs? Please post VY and ML game by game scoring. And putting words in people's mouths is not a good way to make your point.

Almost every QB has games where they get knocked out or they come in relief> Leinart in week 17 put up similar stats in limited duty as Young did in week 2. I am sure there were other situations involving other QB's. If you want to go game by game for everyone, feel free.

 

[Hawk]

Interesting numbers for Leinart and Young. What they really show is that Young pretty much kicked Leinart's ### over the second half of the season.

VY ML

w8 19.88 9.48

w9 4.92 B

w10 15.34 10.44

w11 14.94 21.52

w12 31.86 16.20

w13 20.32 13.44

w14 20.32 17.98

w15 3.80 4.86

w16 31.42 12.48

w17 8.98 -

Leinart only broke 18 pts once in that 10 week span which was his season high 21.52 pts. Vince did it 5 times including two games over 31 points.

Even if you throw out weeks 9 and 17 (since ML did not play those and had no points), in the 8 weeks where both played, Vince outscored Leinart 157.88 to 106.4. That's a pretty good fantasy whoopin, and it solidifies my thinking that Vince has more upside than Leinart this year.

What these numbers show also is that Vince was pretty good over that 10 week stretch outside of the week 9 and week 15 games against Jacksonville. So if you do end up with Vince as your QB1 this year, look for a back-up QB that has favorable match-ups the weeks that Tennessee plays Jax so that you can sub him in for Vince those two weeks if necessary.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

Odd scoring systems and parsing statistics? It's officially a shark pool thread.

How about Leinart's solid game against the Bears which juuuuust so happens to fall 1 week outside of the range you are looking at?

 

[David Yudkin]

Here's the thing that concerns me about drawing conclusions on inexperienced QBs that ended the year on hot streaks or had a couple really strong months.

In 2002 in his first year as a starter, Michael Vick tore it up over the second half of the season, averaging 25 ppg and drawing unbelievable hype. At that point he was the total package, as projecting his 8 game stats over 16 games would have had him at almost 3700 yards, 24 TD passes, 800+ rushing yards and 8 rushing TD. Vick didn't do much in 2003 due to injury, but in subsequent years he never came close to performing that well.

The fact of the matter is that most people take what was produced and many times use the axiom that PLAYER X will build on that to either do better or at a minimum do the same. See Johnson comma Larry for uber inflated projections based on his 2005 numbers, ferreting out partial games, not starting, etc. just like people will typically do. Yes, LJ still did very well but some people were quick to label him a "bust" even scoring "just" 334 fantasy points last year (BTW, the 15th best season ever by a RB).

Vince Young could very well have a strong season this year, but judging the landscape in some of my leagues it will be next to impossible for him to have any ROI based on where I see him getting drafted IN MY LEAGUES. I'm not hating on Young, just getting a lay of the landscape. In fact, I am a big advocate of running QBs and have tried to roster them whenever possible if the price was right.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

How about Leinart's solid game against the Bears which juuuuust so happens to fall 1 week outside of the range you are looking at?

Not sure what you mean.No games fall outside of the range. You asked me to list every game of the season. So, I listed every game of the season. His game against the bears is listed-week 6: 18.28 points.Edit- Sorry, I didn't see that you were replying to Hawk's post.

 

[SSOG]

Here's the thing that concerns me about drawing conclusions on inexperienced QBs that ended the year on hot streaks or had a couple really strong months.In 2002 in his first year as a starter, Michael Vick tore it up over the second half of the season, averaging 25 ppg and drawing unbelievable hype. At that point he was the total package, as projecting his 8 game stats over 16 games would have had him at almost 3700 yards, 24 TD passes, 800+ rushing yards and 8 rushing TD. Vick didn't do much in 2003 due to injury, but in subsequent years he never came close to performing that well.The fact of the matter is that most people take what was produced and many times use the axiom that PLAYER X will build on that to either do better or at a minimum do the same. See Johnson comma Larry for uber inflated projections based on his 2005 numbers, ferreting out partial games, not starting, etc. just like people will typically do. Yes, LJ still did very well but some people were quick to label him a "bust" even scoring "just" 334 fantasy points last year (BTW, the 15th best season ever by a RB).Vince Young could very well have a strong season this year, but judging the landscape in some of my leagues it will be next to impossible for him to have any ROI based on where I see him getting drafted IN MY LEAGUES. I'm not hating on Young, just getting a lay of the landscape. In fact, I am a big advocate of running QBs and have tried to roster them whenever possible if the price was right.

I think Michael Vick is a great comparison. Vick has been nothing but a disappointment since 2002... but he's still finished 12th (in 15 games), 10th (in 15 games), and 4th in his three reasonably full seasons since then. Three years, three QB1 finishes.I'm probably not going to wind up with Vince Young on any of my rosters, but it's hard to argue that any of the others have a better chance of finishing in the top 12 than Young does. Of the three QBs, he's the best fantasy option. He has a higher price, yes. He's potentially overrated, sure. Doesn't change the fact that he's the best fantasy option of the three, and the one I'd feel most comfortable with as my QB1.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

For fun:

player Att Cmp Comp % yds Yd/A TDs Int Sacked Rating rush rushtdmanning 35.9 20.4 56.7 233.7 6.5 1.63 1.75 1.38 71.2 3.88 0.00 mcnabb 18.0 8.8 49.1 79.0 4.4 0.67 0.58 2.33 60.1 26.08 0.00 brees 32.9 20.0 60.8 205.3 6.2 1.06 1.00 1.50 76.9 8.13 0.06 palmer 33.2 20.2 60.9 222.8 6.7 1.38 1.38 1.92 77.3 3.62 0.08 vick 14.1 6.3 44.2 98.1 6.9 0.25 0.38 2.63 62.7 36.13 0.13 roeth 21.1 14.0 66.4 187.2 8.9 1.21 0.79 2.14 98.1 4.00 0.07 favre 31.4 20.1 64.1 215.1 6.9 1.20 0.87 2.27 85.3 13.20 0.07 elway 23.5 11.2 47.5 151.2 6.4 0.64 1.27 0.00 54.9 13.27 0.09 cutler 27.4 16.2 59.1 200.2 7.3 1.80 1.00 2.60 88.5 3.60 0.00leinart 31.4 17.8 54.1 212.3 6.8 0.92 1.00 1.75 74.0 4.08 0.17 young 23.8 12.3 49.1 146.6 6.2 0.80 0.87 1.67 66.7 36.80 0.47Those numbers are first year starting stats adjusted so all numbers are per game. Sorry about the formatting, if someone wants to fix, feel free. Hopefully, they are good enough to get by.The reason I looked those numbers up was to indicate that all three of these rookies are doing VERY well when compared to their peers who have ended up being good (in some cases great) pros. Elway is thrown in for fun, but also illustrates a point.

Of course, you know that nealy all of those guys had VASTLY improved sophmore (for starting purposes) seasons, as most QBs do. In several cases, the 2nd year was the guys BEST year. These guys will probably improve too - at least the ones that have WRs to throw to.

I think most of the 2nd year guys are being under-rated (throw in Campbell and Jackson). Any one of them could end up being a "surprise" top 10 or even top 5 (just like more than a few of the guys listed above were in their 2nd years). Obviously, some of them will flop, but if you see one you like (Cutler looks good to me and had a GREAT YPA for a rookie), take a shot.

 

[Hawk]

Odd scoring systems and parsing statistics? It's officially a shark pool thread. How about Leinart's solid game against the Bears which juuuuust so happens to fall 1 week outside of the range you are looking at?

Actually, one game outside the range I looked at was Leinart's 2.62 point stinker. But Leinart did have two solid games before that in weeks 5 and 6. I just thought it was interesting how much better Vince did than Leinart as the season wore on. I had never seen the numbers side by side like that, so I was surprised.I'd rank them 1) VY, 2) ML, 3) JC as far as who I'd rather have as a QB1, but all three of them have good potential. Quite a good crop of QB's in that draft class.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

For those of you (and there are a lot) that seem to easily prefer Leinart to Cutler, can anyone explain that to me?

Cutler had considerably better stats per game last year, is on a MUCH better team with a system that has a history of being kind to QBs, and was drafted right around the same place. Leinart has the great receivers, but is going into a new offense and has a rookie head coach.

I think Leinart will be a really good QB at some point, but for next year, I'd much rather have Cutler.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

These guys will probably improve too - at least the ones that have WRs to throw to.

 

[SSOG]

For those of you (and there are a lot) that seem to easily prefer Leinart to Cutler, can anyone explain that to me?Cutler had considerably better stats per game last year, is on a MUCH better team with a system that has a history of being kind to QBs, and was drafted right around the same place. Leinart has the great receivers, but is going into a new offense and has a rookie head coach. I think Leinart will be a really good QB at some point, but for next year, I'd much rather have Cutler.

I actually have Cutler ahead of Leinart, but I can easily see someone ranking it the other way around. Any argument there will undoubtedly begin with Boldin and end with Fitzgerald... and personally, I think it's a pretty strong argument. The reason I'm not buying into it is that J-Walk is as good as either of those luminaries, which means Leinart has a drastically better 2nd WR... while Denver has a better O-Line, TEs, RBs, and defense (better defense = better starting field position), and will very likely wind up outscoring Arizona as a team by a significant margin (40% of 30 total TDs is still more than 50% of 20 total TDs).

 

[-OZ-]

For those of you (and there are a lot) that seem to easily prefer Leinart to Cutler, can anyone explain that to me?Cutler had considerably better stats per game last year, is on a MUCH better team with a system that has a history of being kind to QBs, and was drafted right around the same place. Leinart has the great receivers, but is going into a new offense and has a rookie head coach. I think Leinart will be a really good QB at some point, but for next year, I'd much rather have Cutler.

I think it's mostly that fans/FFers tend to look at Boldin and Fitz and think "WOW, Leinart has the best WR duo in the league..." (which is wrong btw). Fact is, their OL isn't good (yet anyway), and while Edge is a good RB, he's not the same as he was in Indy. meanwhile, Cutler gets a much better OL, a RB who at this point is practically as good, and WRs/TE who aren't that much worse. The fine point here is Denver will probably be in the lead more than AZ, and might run more. (which is arguable)I think they're very close, but VY is the best of the 3.

 

[AB in DC]

Bump.

The more I think about these three, the more I start to think that the choice among these three is obvious.

Talent-wise, all three were rated as top-tier QB prospects in the draft. So let's break this down:

2006 stats (PPG)

1a. Cutler (16.60)

1b. Young (16.19 - but includes some games where he wasn't a starter)

3. Leinart (14.65)

Coaching staff

1a. Cutler (Shanahan)

2. Young (Fisher)

3. Leinart (Whisenhunt in first year)

2007 offensive line

1. Cutler (DEN)

2. Young (TEN)

3. Leinart (ARI)

2007 receiving options (RB/TE)

1. Cutler (Henry/Bell/Graham/Scheffler)

2. Leinart (Edge/Shipp/?/?)

3. Young (Brown/?/Troupe/Scaife)

2007 receiving options (WR)

1. Leinart (Fitz/Boldin/BJohnson/?)

2. Cutler (Walker/Marshall/Stokely/RSmith)

3. Young (BJones/?/?/?)

In almost every dimension, Cutler appears to be well ahead of the other two sophomores. And using the same breakdown, he'd compare favorably to most of the other young QBs (e.g. Romo, Rivers, Smith, Roethlisberger) as well.

Cutler's only downside is inexperience, but we've seen plenty of second-year pros perform well in recent years, so this is not a huge negative. Other than that, Jay Cutler seems like a no-brainer top-10 QB.

 

[steelcityman]

I'm in a NFC only league, Leinart is who I am taking, McNabb, Bulger, Brees and maybe Kitna or Romo will be protected already. I dont see any better options this year.