Which Pill Do You Choose? (Stolen from Twitter/X) (1 Viewer)

[IvanKaramazov]

This has been making the rounds in my little Twitter circle. It seems be extremely divisive, so I figured it would make a fun topic for the FFA. Here it goes:

Everyone responding to this poll chooses between a green pill and an orange pill.

If > 50% of people choose the green pill, everyone lives.
If not, orange pills live and green pills die.

Which do you choose?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Here's a link to the Twitter thread. The original question had the pills colored as blue and red, which I think was hijacking some of the respondents because of the political associations. I am definitely taking the orange pill and I cannot imagine being talked out that view, but I am somehow in the minority on Twitter which is kind of amazing. Let's see how the FFA stacks up.

 

[ChiefD]

Beer.

 

[Snoopy]

matrix....red pill

 

[titusbramble]

What if I choose both?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

What if I choose both?

Oh no, I'm not making two stops.

 

[Grahamburn]

Green. Couldn't live with myself afterward if not anyway. Plus, you'd be left all alone with the most selfish people on the planet if you go orange.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Green pill.

I was gonna go orange at first, because I live either way and I'm selfish. But then I realized I don't want to live in a world where all the selfless green pill folks who would risk their lives to save humanity are gone, and all that's left are people like me.

 

[Northern Voice]

Green, and this thread won't make it through the night.

 

[belljr]

Hint: the selfish people are going to live either way

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Here's a link to the Twitter thread. The original question had the pills colored as blue and red, which I think was hijacking some of the respondents because of the political associations. I am definitely taking the orange pill and I cannot imagine being talked out that view, but I am somehow in the minority on Twitter which is kind of amazing. Let's see how the FFA stacks up.

Those colors are from the matrix

 

[Scoresman]

I voted orange and then immediately went to the store and bought all the toilet paper.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

So ... it's a Prisoner's Dilemma?

 

[Zow]

So ... it's a Prisoner's Dilemma?

That's exactly how I took it.

As a group, the choice is green. As an individual, the choice is orange.

 

[Zow]

I voted orange and then immediately went to the store and bought all the toilet paper.

... while not wearing a mask.

 

[NutterButter]

I assume you don't get to collaborate with anybody. I don't think I could choose the orange knowing my kids might choose the green and potentially die.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

The main reason why I think this is interesting is because when I saw it the first time, I just assumed that obviously everybody would pick orange, and I was shocked to see that the result actually went the other way. And despite reading a large number of responses to this, the green pill runs very strongly against every moral intuition I possess. The fact that folks intuit this problem so differently makes me wonder if it's an ethical equivalent of "what color is the dress?"

I have a theory that that the "green people" are reading some things into the question that I'm not, but I'm not sure about that at all.

 

[dkp993]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

 

[dkp993]

have a theory that that the "green people" are reading some things into the question that I'm not, but I'm not sure about that at all

Yes, that you’re potentially killing huge groups of people. Why would anyone risk that?

 

[Grahamburn]

The main reason why I think this is interesting is because when I saw it the first time, I just assumed that obviously everybody would pick orange, and I was shocked to see that the result actually went the other way. And despite reading a large number of responses to this, the green pill runs very strongly against every moral intuition I possess. The fact that folks intuit this problem so differently makes me wonder if it's an ethical equivalent of "what color is the dress?"

I have a theory that that the "green people" are reading some things into the question that I'm not, but I'm not sure about that at all.

Logically everyone should pick orange and then everyone lives. People aren't logical.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

The main reason why I think this is interesting is because when I saw it the first time, I just assumed that obviously everybody would pick orange, and I was shocked to see that the result actually went the other way. And despite reading a large number of responses to this, the green pill runs very strongly against every moral intuition I possess. The fact that folks intuit this problem so differently makes me wonder if it's an ethical equivalent of "what color is the dress?"

I have a theory that that the "green people" are reading some things into the question that I'm not, but I'm not sure about that at all.

The PD is entirely a function of trust. If you trust the other person, it makes sense to choose the option that maximizes everyone's outcome. If you don't, it makes sense to choose the one that maximizes your own. (There's a reason it's the Prisoner's Dilemma). So people's choices most likely reflect their level of trust in society as a whole

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

Ah, so I suppose in that sense it is different from the Prisoner's Dilemma, since there are two potential best-case outcomes. In the classic PD, the individual's choice is between a guaranteed less-bad outcome or taking a chance on a best-case outcome (with the downside risk of a worst-case outcome)

 

[Don Quixote]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

That is assuming competency of everyone selecting though. My 7 year old’s favorite color is green, so I’m pretty sure he is taking green.

 

[Northern Voice]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

That is assuming competency of everyone selecting though. My 7 year old’s favorite color is green, so I’m pretty sure he is taking green.

And if you change your individual starting premise from "everyone should pick orange" to "some people will pick green"... it should be pretty easy.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

Ah, so I suppose in that sense it is different from the Prisoner's Dilemma, since there are two potential best-case outcomes. In the classic PD, the individual's choice is between a guaranteed less-bad outcome or taking a chance on a best-case outcome (with the downside risk of a worst-case outcome)

Yeah, it's not a prisoners' dilemma. There is no dominant strategy here (in the jargon, "green pill" is only weakly dominated by "orange pill" whereas in a PD "cooperate" is strictly dominated by "defect") and there are multiple equilibria in this game. But I was mainly interested in how people read their moral intuitions into the game. Specifically the "orange = selfish = bad" chain that the majority sees.

When I read this question, I too looked at it as a game theory problem at first, but then I thought about a bit morally since it involves life and death and all. And my mind immediately gravitated to "Should I put my life in the hands of of a bunch of strangers when I could just -- not do that?" In terms of the Aristotelean mean, the green pill seems like it veers way more toward recklessness than bravery, because everybody who needs rescuing in the green pill scenario could have simply not done that in the first place.

It's kind of like the difference between risking your life to pull an adult out of a burning car (great!) versus risking your life to save that same adult when he's trapped on the summit of Mt. Everest (don't do that). I think I'm hard-wired to see the green pill people sitting on the top of Everest and everybody else sees them burning to death in a random auto accident. Or that's one idea anyway.

 

[dkp993]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

Sure but if everyone takes the green pill everyone lives AND there is no risk associated. If we’re banking on the “everyone taking it angle” why add any risk?

 

[Ilov80s]

Green. Easy. Only a psycho would take the orange.

 

[Runkle]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

So, if almost everyone takes Orange, almost everyone lives, but the people who weren't smart enough to intuit that die.
Meanwhile, if just enough people take Green, everyone lives, and the people that couldn't intuit that also live too.

 

[Caveman33]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

Right, this poll doesn't make much sense to me. There is no dilemma. Just select the orange pill and you live. There is no reason for anyone to select the green pill.

 

[Caveman33]

At first glance it seems selfish to take the orange pill, are you a monster who wants people to die?

Then you realize that if everyone takes the orange pill everyone lives, nobody dies.

Are the people who understand this and still choose green just selfish or stupid?


(I admittedly could be misunderstanding the OP and I am the stupid one)

Virtue signaling for twitter clout I assume. "I am so selfless that I will risk my life for nothing!"

 

[Northern Voice]

It's kind of like the difference between risking your life to pull an adult out of a burning car (great!) versus risking your life to save that same adult when he's trapped on the summit of Mt. Everest (don't do that).

Either way, I'm still saving the dog first.

 

[Ilov80s]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

Right, this poll doesn't make much sense to me. There is no dilemma. Just select the orange pill and you live. There is no reason for anyone to select the green pill.

If most people take the orange, nobody dies. If most people take the green, people will die.

 

[Caveman33]

The poll should probably be:
If > 50% of people choose the green pill, everyone lives.
If not, 3/4 of orange pills live and green pills die.

There needs to be some risk for selecting orange, in order to justify the risk of cooperation with everyone else. As it stands, there is no dilemma.

 

[Ilov80s]

At first glance it seems selfish to take the orange pill, are you a monster who wants people to die?

Then you realize that if everyone takes the orange pill everyone lives, nobody dies.

Are the people who understand this and still choose green just selfish or stupid?


(I admittedly could be misunderstanding the OP and I am the stupid one)

Virtue signaling for twitter clout I assume. "I am so selfless that I will risk my life for nothing!"

Nothing? Trying to make sure nobody who misunderstands the exercise, is unintelligent, disabled, a child, etc. dies doesn't seem like nothing.

 

[Northern Voice]

Honestly, if you've read this far and you're still staying orange, it's a problem. You can't assume the premise that everyone will choose orange, you have to now see that some people will choose green and having that knowledge plus the threshold for green only being 50%, it really should be a no brainer.

 

[Caveman33]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

Right, this poll doesn't make much sense to me. There is no dilemma. Just select the orange pill and you live. There is no reason for anyone to select the green pill.

If most people take the orange, nobody dies. If most people take the green, people will die.

I think you mean the opposite, but there is no reason for anyone to take green. We can all select orange and all live.

 

[Ilov80s]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

Right, this poll doesn't make much sense to me. There is no dilemma. Just select the orange pill and you live. There is no reason for anyone to select the green pill.

If most people take the orange, nobody dies. If most people take the green, people will die.

I think you mean the opposite, but there is no reason for anyone to take green. We can all select orange and all live.

One is a step simply to save yourself. The other is a step to try to save everyone- even those who don't really understand the exercise.

 

[ghostguy123]

In this country??? Even if everyone had weeks to discuss it and debate it, green would hit like 45% and they'd all die.
People suck.

 

[Grahamburn]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

Right, this poll doesn't make much sense to me. There is no dilemma. Just select the orange pill and you live. There is no reason for anyone to select the green pill.

If most people take the orange, nobody dies. If most people take the green, people will die.

I think you mean the opposite, but there is no reason for anyone to take green. We can all select orange and all live.

How many times have you been in a situation where everyone in a group has been 100% in agreement on anything?

 

[ghostguy123]

Maybe was answered, but............is the idea here that people are allowed to discuss it before voting, or that no discussion is allowed prior to vote.

 

[Caveman33]

At first glance it seems selfish to take the orange pill, are you a monster who wants people to die?

Then you realize that if everyone takes the orange pill everyone lives, nobody dies.

Are the people who understand this and still choose green just selfish or stupid?


(I admittedly could be misunderstanding the OP and I am the stupid one)

Virtue signaling for twitter clout I assume. "I am so selfless that I will risk my life for nothing!"

Nothing? Trying to make sure nobody who misunderstands the exercise, is unintelligent, disabled, a child, etc. dies doesn't seem like nothing.

Honestly, if you've read this far and you're still staying orange, it's a problem. You can't assume the premise that everyone will choose orange, you have to now see that some people will choose green and having that knowledge plus the threshold for green only being 50%, it really should be a no brainer.

That is a fair point, and assuming that our choices will be made in complete isolation, there may be a very small percentage of people are incapable of making a logical decision. I guess I don't trust people enough. The majority here are saying green and probably the majority on twitter also said green. But when their lives are actually on the line, would the majority really risk it? I don't think so.

 

[Moe.]

This doesn’t even make sense to me and if you choose green I am assuming you misread the prompt. This isn’t a prisoner’s dilemma

 

[Moe.]

Green pill.

I was gonna go orange at first, because I live either way and I'm selfish. But then I realized I don't want to live in a world where all the selfless green pill folks who would risk their lives to save humanity are gone, and all that's left are people like me.

How are they risking their lives to save humanity? Are you thinking they want to cover the people who misunderstood and accidentally clicked the wrong button?

 

[ChicoCat]

The best answer is orange; regardless of individual or group. For the individual....orange allows you to not "play the game". You're alive regardless. For the group, if everyone takes the orange pill....then noone will die.

 

[Juxtatarot]

I have faith in the FFA community so I picked green. If I were on Twitter, I'd probably pick orange.

 

[Moe.]

Honestly, if you've read this far and you're still staying orange, it's a problem. You can't assume the premise that everyone will choose orange, you have to now see that some people will choose green and having that knowledge plus the threshold for green only being 50%, it really should be a no brainer.

So I should die too because some people made a choice that makes no sense? There is zero way >50% of people are picking green. I don’t even see orange as immoral, not even close

 

[Moe.]

Maybe was answered, but............is the idea here that people are allowed to discuss it before voting, or that no discussion is allowed prior to vote.

Yeah like let’s just get a PSA out there that we can opt out of this sicko’s game by all picking orange

 

[Northern Voice]

"Why wouldn't everyone pick orange, they won't die"

"Why wouldn't everyone pick green, no one dies"

 

[Caveman33]

Why would anyone ever choose a pill that has everyone else (or at least a large populace of people) die? That makes zero sense, unless of course you are Thanos.

Just to be clear, everybody who takes the orange pill lives no matter what. If everybody takes the orange pill, nobody dies.

I just want to make sure nobody gets the wrong idea, like that you're automatically zapping somebody if you take the orange pill. There is an everybody-takes-orange equilibrium where everyone lives.

Right, this poll doesn't make much sense to me. There is no dilemma. Just select the orange pill and you live. There is no reason for anyone to select the green pill.

If most people take the orange, nobody dies. If most people take the green, people will die.

I think you mean the opposite, but there is no reason for anyone to take green. We can all select orange and all live.

How many times have you been in a situation where everyone in a group has been 100% in agreement on anything?

When approaching an intersection with a group of people, I think we have always 100% agreed not to step out in front of a bus. Some people, a very small percentage, might not understand that everyone can wait for the red light (select orange) and live. That is sad and unfortunate but the risk involved with selecting green is so much greater. We could also talk about society and +/-EV but I don't want to be even more of an insensitive jerk than I already am.