Who is the #1 QB? (2 Viewers)

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Leaning more and more Allen with each passing moment, even over Froggy Fresh, tho I do think Mahomes has the higher floor and is most likely of any QB to at least finish in the top tier (i.e. at most a point or two away from the #1 in PPG).

I think I am a bit jaded b/c last year I had Allen in two (of three) leagues and Hurts in the other and in both cases, injury sapped them come playoff time, where Mahomie kept rolling hot through the end.

Ultimately, this game is not about who finishes #1 overall in total points. And it's also not about #1 in PPG. I have to regularly remind myself every draft season, this game is actually about who is still left standing and scoring elite PPG in weeks 15-17. Odds still favor Froggy to be that guy this season, but man, do I luv Hurts and Allen is just boss.

Your last paragraph is great advice.

I also might be letting personal experience cloud my judgment. Had Allen two years ago, got bounced in the playoffs. Took Mahomes last year and didn't bother drafting a backup (I was starting him no matter what, and figured he comes with an "extra" bench spot by not taking a backup). Gamble paid off, won the league. If I took Allen or Hurts I'd definitely be looking for a decent backup due to the running.

But that's just luck. Mahomes could have gotten hurt and I would have been doomed. I should be more objective about it.

 

[LawFitz]

Mahomes could have gotten hurt and I would have been doomed. I should be more objective about it.

As objectively as I can imagine it, Mahomes is least likely of the three to be hampered by injuries come fantasy playoff time. That said, it's no guarantee at all he will be. Just speaking relatively between the three of them.

This is why I can't place Lamar above them, even though I believe on a PPG (when healthy) basis, he will be the #1 QB this season. I consider his injury risk far greatest among the big four.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Took Mahomes last year and didn't bother drafting a backup

What did you do on the bye week - just take a zero?

 

[Smack Tripper]

Burrow... worse D and healthy WR

 

[Chaka]

Burrow... worse D and healthy WR

He's definitely in the conversation to finish number one overall. However, as thought experiment. I don't think anyone drafts Burrow, Lamar, Herbert or anyone else if Mahomes, Allen & Hurts are still on the board.

 

[Judge Smails]

I play in a league with bonus points for milestones. 300 yards, 100 yards rushing etc. Bonus points for long plays, etc.

What the net effect really is, is that a QB who throws for 260, runs for 60, and runs in two TDs can get easily outscored by a guy who throws for 320 yards, and maybe has two intermediate TD passes. The total yardage of the rushing QB can be more than the pure passer, but if the passer hits milestones, he gets a big bump.


In THAT league, Joe Burrow is my guy,

I'm in exactly that league. Also 6 point TD's. Last year here were our totals:

Mahomes - 509 points
Allen - 475
Hurts - 432
Burrow - 430
Geno - 373
Trevor - 355
Cousins - 354
Goff - 347
Herbert - 342
Fields - 339
Jones - 329
Brady - 326
All others - under 300

Jackson was up there in his big season but usually the guys who don't have 300 yard games and a lot of passing TD's don't get to the top tier in our scoring. What Burrow did without having Chase for a lot of games speaks to his upside. And he did it without running. So if anyone threatens the big 3 it's Burrow to me. Geno, Cousins, Goff, and Jones don't have ceilings much higher than what they have shown. Trevor is ascending but they will be balanced - not just air it out. Herbert can definitely take a step back up with a healthy Oline. We saw his floor last year.

I think it's a big 4 with Burrow in there. Lamar has the upside but you really have to believe the new offensive coordinator is going to air it out but I'll believe it when I see it. Jackson was good through the air only when teams feared the run. It was off play action and RPO stuff. Don't love him as a pure drop back guy.

I'm drafting in the 2 slot. Pretty good shot that 1 of the big 3 is going to drop to me at the 2/3 turn. Mahomes will be gone, and I'm thinking one of Hurts or Allen goes. I'm likely to pull the trigger on the one that is left over unless there is a WR I love on the board. If I don't get them then Lamar, Burrow, Herbert and Trevor are likely gone before my next pick. The only one I'd reach for potentially is Burrow. Starting to talk myself into him Or I'll wait and go for a Cousins, Goff or Geno type. They are almost free.

 

[Keith1]

I play in a league with bonus points for milestones. 300 yards, 100 yards rushing etc. Bonus points for long plays, etc.

What the net effect really is, is that a QB who throws for 260, runs for 60, and runs in two TDs can get easily outscored by a guy who throws for 320 yards, and maybe has two intermediate TD passes. The total yardage of the rushing QB can be more than the pure passer, but if the passer hits milestones, he gets a big bump.


In THAT league, Joe Burrow is my guy,

I'm in exactly that league. Also 6 point TD's. Last year here were our totals:

Mahomes - 509 points
Allen - 475
Hurts - 432
Burrow - 430
Geno - 373
Trevor - 355
Cousins - 354
Goff - 347
Herbert - 342
Fields - 339
Jones - 329
Brady - 326
All others - under 300

Jackson was up there in his big season but usually the guys who don't have 300 yard games and a lot of passing TD's don't get to the top tier in our scoring. What Burrow did without having Chase for a lot of games speaks to his upside. And he did it without running. So if anyone threatens the big 3 it's Burrow to me. Geno, Cousins, Goff, and Jones don't have ceilings much higher than what they have shown. Trevor is ascending but they will be balanced - not just air it out. Herbert can definitely take a step back up with a healthy Oline. We saw his floor last year.

I think it's a big 4 with Burrow in there. Lamar has the upside but you really have to believe the new offensive coordinator is going to air it out but I'll believe it when I see it. Jackson was good through the air only when teams feared the run. It was off play action and RPO stuff. Don't love him as a pure drop back guy.

I'm drafting in the 2 slot. Pretty good shot that 1 of the big 3 is going to drop to me at the 2/3 turn. Mahomes will be gone, and I'm thinking one of Hurts or Allen goes. I'm likely to pull the trigger on the one that is left over unless there is a WR I love on the board. If I don't get them then Lamar, Burrow, Herbert and Trevor are likely gone before my next pick. The only one I'd reach for potentially is Burrow. Starting to talk myself into him Or I'll wait and go for a Cousins, Goff or Geno type. They are almost free.

"You'll get nothing, and like it!"

(couldn't resist given your user name and avatar).

Don't wait for Cousins, Goff or Geno. They will be Ok most weeks but they are not likely to lead you to the playoffs when all is said and done.

 

[Jamesinaz]

Monday night. Ready to go.

So, you chose Rogers?

Can't figure out this response. Rogers?

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Took Mahomes last year and didn't bother drafting a backup

What did you do on the bye week - just take a zero?

I picked up some trash for the week. If my record had been good enough and I loved my bench, I was prepared to take the zero. But too many games in that league come down to just a few points, so a guy who could get me even 10-12 could make a difference (Mahomes was around 25 a week in that system).

If you ask me who I picked up and whether it mattered, I couldn't tell you. But I did feel like I had an "extra" bench spot which gave me some breathing room and allowed me to speculate more. I remember that part.

 

[Instinctive]

FWIW I would be taking Lamar.

 

[dschuler]

Surprised so many people voted Mahomes. While I think he’s easily the best QB in the NFL, he has to have almost a perfect season and the run QBs (Allen, Hurts, Jackson, Fields) need to not hit their ceiling for him to finish QB1. I think Hurts and Allen offer more upside, but Mahomes has the safest and highest floor due to a low injury risk.

 

[Chaka]

FWIW I would be taking Lamar.

You think Lamar will finish as QB1 overall or you think you would actually select Lamar even if Mahomes, Allen & Hurts were available?

 

[Chaka]

Surprised so many people voted Mahomes. While I think he’s easily the best QB in the NFL, he has to have almost a perfect season and the run QBs (Allen, Hurts, Jackson, Fields) need to not hit their ceiling for him to finish QB1. I think Hurts and Allen offer more upside, but Mahomes has the safest and highest floor due to a low injury risk.

My feelings exactly. Mahomes will finish top 5 almost certainly but the one time he hit #1 overall he needed 5,000 yards & 50+ TDs. That's a lot to ask even for him.

 

[Instinctive]

FWIW I would be taking Lamar.

You think Lamar will finish as QB1 overall or you think you would actually select Lamar even if Mahomes, Allen & Hurts were available?

It's kind of an irrelevant question, unless I think Lamar wouldn't be available at my next pick and it was QB time.

I would, in order:
1. Pass on those 3 and take Lamar at the next pick I have because I do believe Lamar is QB1 this year and would rather have him, all the better if it means I can wait a round and stack an extra RB or WR
2. Take Lamar if I know or highly suspect my league is gonna take all 4 QBs before my next pick

 

[Chaka]

FWIW I would be taking Lamar.

You think Lamar will finish as QB1 overall or you think you would actually select Lamar even if Mahomes, Allen & Hurts were available?

It's kind of an irrelevant question, unless I think Lamar wouldn't be available at my next pick and it was QB time.

I would, in order:
1. Pass on those 3 and take Lamar at the next pick I have because I do believe Lamar is QB1 this year and would rather have him, all the better if it means I can wait a round and stack an extra RB or WR
2. Take Lamar if I know or highly suspect my league is gonna take all 4 QBs before my next pick

I appreciate that.

The thread is not about draft strategy it's asking if all QBs are available which one would you select?

 

[Instinctive]

FWIW I would be taking Lamar.

You think Lamar will finish as QB1 overall or you think you would actually select Lamar even if Mahomes, Allen & Hurts were available?

It's kind of an irrelevant question, unless I think Lamar wouldn't be available at my next pick and it was QB time.

I would, in order:
1. Pass on those 3 and take Lamar at the next pick I have because I do believe Lamar is QB1 this year and would rather have him, all the better if it means I can wait a round and stack an extra RB or WR
2. Take Lamar if I know or highly suspect my league is gonna take all 4 QBs before my next pick

I appreciate that.

The thread is not about draft strategy it's asking if all QBs are available which one would you select?

I think I answered that. If I know I have to take one of them, I'd take Lamar. I just think it's kind of a stupid question. Things don't occur in a vacuum. They occur in context.

 

[General Malaise]

I think Trevor Lawrence is about to challenge the recod for TDs in a season. 55 is the number. I think he gets close to that this year.

 

[Chaka]

I think Trevor Lawrence is about to challenge the recod for TDs in a season. 55 is the number. I think he gets close to that this year.

Do you really? Wow.

You gonna draft him over Mahomes?

 

[General Malaise]

I think Trevor Lawrence is about to challenge the recod for TDs in a season. 55 is the number. I think he gets close to that this year.

Do you really? Wow.

You gonna draft him over Mahomes?

Well.....I didn't get that chance. I'm in 5 leagues. 4 of them have some version of a 'keeper' and, well, Mahomes was kept in all of them. The 5th one is a fun family league with auto-draft, so I'm 0-5 on being able to secure Mahomes.

BUT - I did get a chance to take Lawrence in the league with the highest entry fee and I'm super excited about it. I think he's going to make an enormous jump with the right coach, a good running game and a bunch of weapons at his disposal. Add in the worst division in football (arguably) and I think we're looking at a guy who is about to set the football world on fire.

 

[General Malaise]

I also traded Trevor Lawrence to my dad for Russell Wilson in Trevor's rookie year. My dad hasn't let me forget it. Like....."Hey son, how you doing, thanks for inviting me over for dinner. I bet you'd like Trevor Lawrence back, huh?".

Nothing like getting trash talked by your 80 year old dad.

 

[massraider]

"Hey son, how you doing, thanks for inviting me over for dinner. I bet you'd like Trevor Lawrence back, huh?"

Everytime he leaves to go home, he should stop at the door, and say: Broncos Country, Let's Ride

 

[Gally]

Surprised so many people voted Mahomes. While I think he’s easily the best QB in the NFL, he has to have almost a perfect season and the run QBs (Allen, Hurts, Jackson, Fields) need to not hit their ceiling for him to finish QB1. I think Hurts and Allen offer more upside, but Mahomes has the safest and highest floor due to a low injury risk.

My feelings exactly. Mahomes will finish top 5 almost certainly but the one time he hit #1 overall he needed 5,000 yards & 50+ TDs. That's a lot to ask even for him.

But the reason to take Mahomes as the #1 QB is not because I expect him to be the QB1. It's because I expect him to have the best chance to be no worse than QB5. He brings more floor and still a high ceiling. He is the best combo of those two things and that is why I would take him as the first QB off the board.

That being said, I will never get Mahomes because I am not going to spend what is needed to get him. I like the Herbert/Lawrence area for a QB. They are the last of the tier that I think have a good chance of being in the top 5 QB's and their price point is just so much better than it makes sense to wait and go with one of them.

So to answer the question it is Mahomes but in reality I will go with Herbert/Lawerence because of their cost point to upside ratio.

 

[Gally]

I think Trevor Lawrence is about to challenge the recod for TDs in a season. 55 is the number. I think he gets close to that this year.

Do you really? Wow.

You gonna draft him over Mahomes?

Yes because of the price point of the two. I can wait and let someone else spend high to get Mahomes and then get Lawrence or Herbert later and I believe that they both have a great chance to finish Top 5 without paying top 5 prices.

 

[General Malaise]

"Hey son, how you doing, thanks for inviting me over for dinner. I bet you'd like Trevor Lawrence back, huh?"

Everytime he leaves to go home, he should stop at the door, and say: Broncos Country, Let's Ride

I didn't even bother keeping Russell Wilson after last year. We can keep 4. I went with Pickett, Love and Tua instead of Wilson. I'm sure it'll come back to bite me, but I'm done. He can throw the ball 8 yards into the turf for another owner.

 

[Chaka]

I think Trevor Lawrence is about to challenge the recod for TDs in a season. 55 is the number. I think he gets close to that this year.

Do you really? Wow.

You gonna draft him over Mahomes?

Yes because of the price point of the two. I can wait and let someone else spend high to get Mahomes and then get Lawrence or Herbert later and I believe that they both have a great chance to finish Top 5 without paying top 5 prices.

I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding of the question I am asking in this thread.

The question isn't about a value proposition.

It's: in your fantasy draft you are going to pick a QB, no matter what, sent down from on high, written in stone and every QB is on the board. Who do you pick?

I agree with the value proposition I am just curious who people would draft as the first QB off the board.

I believe, in that situation your answer is Mahomes.

 

[Gally]

I believe, in that situation your answer is Mahomes.

Correct and I voted accordingly in the pole.

 

[Mitchie]

Anyone changing their mind with the Kelce injury? Early reports are maybe not that serious but that could possibly change.

 

[BassNBrew]

Not one mention of Fields?

Improved weapons. And he's still going to run.

LOL...Fields dies if he runs that much again. Great FF QB, but no way he's topping all of Allen, Mahomes, Hurts, Burrow, LJax

Leaning more and more Allen with each passing moment, even over Froggy Fresh, tho I do think Mahomes has the higher floor and is most likely of any QB to at least finish in the top tier (i.e. at most a point or two away from the #1 in PPG).

I think I am a bit jaded b/c last year I had Allen in two (of three) leagues and Hurts in the other and in both cases, injury sapped them come playoff time, where Mahomie kept rolling hot through the end.

Ultimately, this game is not about who finishes #1 overall in total points. And it's also not about #1 in PPG. I have to regularly remind myself every draft season, this game is actually about who is still left standing and scoring elite PPG in weeks 15-17. Odds still favor Froggy to be that guy this season, but man, do I luv Hurts and Allen is just boss.

Your last paragraph is great advice.

I also might be letting personal experience cloud my judgment. Had Allen two years ago, got bounced in the playoffs. Took Mahomes last year and didn't bother drafting a backup (I was starting him no matter what, and figured he comes with an "extra" bench spot by not taking a backup). Gamble paid off, won the league. If I took Allen or Hurts I'd definitely be looking for a decent backup due to the running.

But that's just luck. Mahomes could have gotten hurt and I would have been doomed. I should be more objective about it.

Mahomes rolled his ankle and still posted massive numbers days later...LJax does the same and missed months.

I think Trevor Lawrence is about to challenge the recod for TDs in a season. 55 is the number. I think he gets close to that this year.

Remind us again...weed is legal in your state correct?

 

[BassNBrew]

@Chaka Major props for figuring out a way to get Eagles fans to admit the schedule was cake last year. I bow down.

 

[ericttspikes]

I had this decision. Mahomes went and I took Hurts over Allen. In hindsight I'm thinking it might of been a mistake, but my reasoning was that I believe the Eagles are a better team than the Bills and I believe Hurts is still ascending. My gut says we've seen peak Allen, which is great, but feel there may be more upside with Hurts. We'll find out.

Burrow should be in the conversation as well. The guy is tough as nails, but the pounding he takes worried me last year and having him not be 100% to start this year tipped the scales a bit. My gut also says Herbert could easily be #1 this year, at least top 3. Wasn't sure he'd come back to me, and he would've, so that stings a bit.

 

[zeeshan2]

I'm shocked I'm the only who has voted Allen.

He's a better passer than Hurts, a better runner than Mahomes, and he's been better than Mahomes each of the last 3 seasons.

I think people keep waiting for something that's never going to happen when it comes to Allen running less. They say they will reduce it every year, its gone up 3 straight seasons.

not to mention he could have had even more FP without the bills red zone issues and his lingering injury last year

 

[Manster]

I went heavy on Hurts.......so it'll probly be Herbert

Honestly it feels like he is being undervalued this season based on his injury last year. I expect him to light it up.