Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
Your last paragraph is great advice.Leaning more and more Allen with each passing moment, even over Froggy Fresh, tho I do think Mahomes has the higher floor and is most likely of any QB to at least finish in the top tier (i.e. at most a point or two away from the #1 in PPG).
I think I am a bit jaded b/c last year I had Allen in two (of three) leagues and Hurts in the other and in both cases, injury sapped them come playoff time, where Mahomie kept rolling hot through the end.
Ultimately, this game is not about who finishes #1 overall in total points. And it's also not about #1 in PPG. I have to regularly remind myself every draft season, this game is actually about who is still left standing and scoring elite PPG in weeks 15-17. Odds still favor Froggy to be that guy this season, but man, do I luv Hurts and Allen is just boss.
I also might be letting personal experience cloud my judgment. Had Allen two years ago, got bounced in the playoffs. Took Mahomes last year and didn't bother drafting a backup (I was starting him no matter what, and figured he comes with an "extra" bench spot by not taking a backup). Gamble paid off, won the league. If I took Allen or Hurts I'd definitely be looking for a decent backup due to the running.
But that's just luck. Mahomes could have gotten hurt and I would have been doomed. I should be more objective about it.