IMO I already refuted 2011 in the
How Drew Brees is being underestimated thread:
Regarding 2009:
Brees: 363/514 (
70.6%), 4388 passing yards (
8.5 YPA),
34 passing TDs (
6.6%),
11 interceptions (
2.1%),
109.6 passer rating,
83.4 QBR, 15 games, 13-2 record
Manning:
393/
571 (68.8%),
4500 passing yards (7.9 YPA), 33 passing TDs (5.8%), 16 interceptions (2.8%), 99.9 passer rating, 81.3 QBR, 16 games*,
14-2 record*
Brees was definitely statistically superior in 2009. However:
- Manning played 1 drive in the 3rd quarter in game 15, and left the game with the lead. He played just over 1 quarter in the 16th game, and that game was tied when he left. Those were the only 2 losses for the Colts that season. They willingly sacrificed a shot at an undefeated season to rest players for the playoffs once the games no longer mattered to their playoff seeding. So the Colts lost zero games that Manning finished. Voters may have considered that the Colts could have gone undefeated had they tried, and given Manning some level of credit for that.
- IND had no run game. The Colts were 30th in yards per attempt and last in yards. New Orleans was 6th in yards per attempt and 7th in yards. The passing game was 77% of the Colts' yards and 67% of the Saints' yards. Manning was asked to do more for his offense.
- Manning had 7 game winning drives and 7 fourth quarter comebacks that season, which was a record at the time. Brees had 2 and 4, respectively. This may not be a great stat, but it probably impacted the voting - this was the seasonn Belichick went for it on 4th and 2 to avoid giving Manning the ball in the fourth quarter.
- Not sure this would have factored into the voting, but Brees had HC Payton and Manning had rookie HC Caldwell.
IMO Manning won because he was close enough to Brees statistically that items 1-3 above made the difference.
IMO Rodgers clearly deserved MVP in 2011, but I think Manning vs. Brees in 2009 was a toss-up that could have gone either way... but if forced to choose, like the voters, I favor Manning by a slight amount.