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Who to believe about Finley? (1 Viewer)

Part of the reason for Finley's success last season was that Rodgers was constantly under pressure and often did not have enough time to let Jennings' deep routes develop. That often worked to the benefit of Driver, Finley and others. The TE's were never featured much in the passing game under McCarthy until last season (targeted just under 25% last year, compared to 17.3% in 2006, 16.5% in 2007 and 14.1% in 2008). Granted, they didn't have a pass-catching talent like Finley in those prior years, but if the Packers pass protection improves, which is likely, I expect McCarthy to revert to his old ways in the passing game. Also, don't forget they have Donald Lee, Spencer Havner (5 td's last year) and a very interesting rookie in Andrew Quarless, who has Finley's size, is faster, but is a bit raw.Of course he could have an excellent, historical season this year, but I think it is ridiculous to claim any certainty that Finley will be top 5 in terms of fantasy production. He could have an excellent season for the Packers but still be out of the top 10 fantasy-wise.
Havner only had 4 TDs in the regular season, and all 4 came while Finley was out. If anything, that's another reason to be optimistic about Finley IMO because it's likely that he would've exceeded Havner's production in those games. Lee is a basically a non-factor at this stage as well. I know the line had issues, but there's no guarantee that it's going to be any better this year, and I don't think that makes a huge difference for Finley regardless- a bad O-line equals more short stuff to him maybe, but it also means he has to stay in to block more frequently, and less downfield opportunities for him as well. As you said, Finley is the best TE McCarthy has had, so it's hard to read much into the % of TE target stats at this point.I own him and I agree that he's a bit overvalued, but there's a lot to be excited about if he can keep it together. He has the size, talent, and situation, and he's only 23 years old.
 
Part of the reason for Finley's success last season was that Rodgers was constantly under pressure and often did not have enough time to let Jennings' deep routes develop. That often worked to the benefit of Driver, Finley and others. The TE's were never featured much in the passing game under McCarthy until last season (targeted just under 25% last year, compared to 17.3% in 2006, 16.5% in 2007 and 14.1% in 2008). Granted, they didn't have a pass-catching talent like Finley in those prior years, but if the Packers pass protection improves, which is likely, I expect McCarthy to revert to his old ways in the passing game. Also, don't forget they have Donald Lee, Spencer Havner (5 td's last year) and a very interesting rookie in Andrew Quarless, who has Finley's size, is faster, but is a bit raw.

Of course he could have an excellent, historical season this year, but I think it is ridiculous to claim any certainty that Finley will be top 5 in terms of fantasy production. He could have an excellent season for the Packers but still be out of the top 10 fantasy-wise.
I disagree with this. Most of Rodgers sacks came in the 1st half of the year, once Tauscher was in place the Packers offensive line played decent. Finley put up his numbers in the 2nd half of the season when the offensive line played much better. I really don't think McCarthy ignored the TE in the past because that's how his offense is structured, he just never had a decent receiving TE (which you touched upon) until Finley came along. To me that's the real reason why they didn't use the TE's much. Lee was/is average at best and I think that's why they came up with that 4 WR set that they used a ton in Brett's last year. McCarthy is all about exploiting mismatches and noone creates bigger mismatches than Finley. He's too fast for LB and too big for DB's and I don't see how he's not at least the 2nd most targeted receiver for the Pack. I could actually see him being target more than Jennings.
Its hard to say whether they went to Finley more by choice due to his talent/mismatches, or by design to avoid sacks by using quicker routes. Probably some of each. In any event, I'm a big fan and would love to see him have a massive break-out year. I just wanted to point out some question marks to temper some of the extreme optimism for Finley. He's got some injury history, some maturity issues and his situation, while generally favorable, is not necessarily ideal. I think we could all easily name 6-8 TE's (including Finley) who are more or less a toss-up as to where they end up at the end of the season. Given that, I'd prefer to draft the 6th or 7th guy rather than reaching for Finley at 2 or 3.
 
it is hard to get a read on finley, does most of the board favor him over vernon davis? Mostly because of situation?
Not me, I think Davis comes right back with another big year. Their pass schedule is easy, his WR's are emerging enough to help take all the pressure off of him unlike a young Todd Heap, I'd take Davis over Finley without thinking much more about it.
I don't know. The weakness of Davis is that he has only been good with Alex Smith throwing him the ball. I don't know a whole lot about Alex Smith and what I do know scares me. Do you vouch for him?
 
Its hard to say whether they went to Finley more by choice due to his talent/mismatches, or by design to avoid sacks by using quicker routes. Probably some of each. In any event, I'm a big fan and would love to see him have a massive break-out year. I just wanted to point out some question marks to temper some of the extreme optimism for Finley. He's got some injury history, some maturity issues and his situation, while generally favorable, is not necessarily ideal. I think we could all easily name 6-8 TE's (including Finley) who are more or less a toss-up as to where they end up at the end of the season. Given that, I'd prefer to draft the 6th or 7th guy rather than reaching for Finley at 2 or 3.
This is the most important point, IMO. There is very good quality depth at TE this year, it simply does not make sense to reach for the top 3 or 4 guys.I love Finley, I think he can be a dominant force at TE. I own him on all three of my dynasty teams. In redraft, however, I am unlikely to land him; the days when there were 2 or 3 great receiving TEs are gone, there are a bunch of good-great receiving TEs.

 
With the passing going on in the league now and the "new" Tightends I would expect that 100 receptions to get passed again and soon.

I agree though that Clark and Gates are two TEs that can be at the top of the heap most years.

I can see Finley joining them though since all the Packers do is throw the ball and Rodgers is a very good QB. He also seems to like Finley quite a bit.

It really is going to come down to whether or not Finley's knee is healthy.
That's all well and good, and those are reasons why someone might think that Finley has AS MUCH upside as Clark or Gates, but in my opinion there's no logical way to defend the claim that he has MORE upside than either of those guys. Especially Gates, who might be the only veteran receiving option (note: Malcolm Floyd doesn't count) on a team with a top-5 QB that had a brutal running game last season and will be starting a rookie RB this season. Gates had 1150/8 receiving last year... with VJAX in the lineup! What might he do this year without him? When upside goes to bed at night, he dreams of Antonio Gates.

well he was 9th in his rookie season so i will bet you an FBG membership net season he will be top 10 in PPG. for atlest 13 games played at the te position... Game?
Actually, he was 54th in his rookie season.
you said top 10 and you wont back it up. Forget it...
You're misreading his post. He never predicted that Finley would fail to make the top 10. He said that it's crazy to predict that Finley was a *LOCK* for the top 5 (exact quote: "I think it is ridiculous to claim any certainty that Finley will be top 5"). Please note that he didn't say it was ridiculous to predict top 5, he said it was ridiculous to predict top 5 WITH CERTAINTY (meaning he thought it was ridiculous to claim that his FLOOR was top 5). He then offered up a random possibility- that Finley had a good season from Packers' management's standpoint but finished outside of the top 10- as an example of why it's ridiculous to claim that Finley had a top-5 floor. While he did mention the words "top 10", his post was always about whether Finley was a lock to finish in the top 5.
 
That's all well and good, and those are reasons why someone might think that Finley has AS MUCH upside as Clark or Gates, but in my opinion there's no logical way to defend the claim that he has MORE upside than either of those guys.
Of course there is, if you are playing in a Dynasty League.
 
I pick at the beginning of a 12 team snake draft (redraft). I like Finley a lot and will draft him OR Vernon Davis at their current ADP (end of 4th beginning of 5th) IF there are no other picks that excite me. I think you must consider the remaining TE's you'd settle for and if you'll likely be able to get them at their ADP. Example, I likely WON'T get Gonzo because he going at the end of the 5th round/beginning of 6th almost without exception, so he's out. Owen Daniels MIGHT fall to me at the end of the 6th. So, if someone like Boldin/Benson fall to me in the 4th/5th, I will take them over Finley and settle for hoping for Daniels or end up with a Winslow/Carlson/Cooley type. If my other options are Nicks/Best at the 4th/5th turn, I'll end up with Finley or Davis.

 
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I pick at the beginning of a 12 team snake draft (redraft). I like Finley a lot and will draft him OR Vernon Davis at their current ADP (end of 4th beginning of 5th) IF there are no other picks that excite me. I think you must consider the remaining TE's you'd settle for and if you'll likely be able to get them at their ADP. Example, I likely WON'T get Gonzo because he going at the end of the 5th round/beginning of 6th almost without exception, so he's out. Owen Daniels MIGHT fall to me at the end of the 6th. So, if someone like Boldin/Benson fall to me in the 4th/5th, I will take them over Finley and settle for hoping for Daniels or end up with a Winslow/Carlson/Cooley type. If my other options are Nicks/Best at the 4th/5th turn, I'll end up with Finley or Davis.
Is Benson really going that late? I can't imagine a scenario where he doesn't make it out of the third round.
 
wanted to add my two sense for what it's worth. when considering Finley, and whether or not he's overvalued, you have to look at the TEs as a whole. Usually I structure my drafts aroudn the QB and TE positions because they are just much easier to "figure out" than RBs and WRs, simply because you only need 1 of each. (excluding backups, of course).

So I expect the TEs to go something like this:

[*]Clark

[*]Gates

[*]Davis

[*]Witten

[*]Finley

[*]Celek

[*]Gonzo

[*]Z.Miller

[*]Winslow

[*]Daniels

[*]Cooley

[*]H. Miller

[*]Carleson

etc

However, I have decided on a two-part TE strategy. 1) I'm looking for Finley or Celek around the 5/6th rounds, or 2) i'm looking for Miller, Winslow, etc, later.

In addition to my disposition to avoid early TEs, I want to avoid the top 4 guys for specific reasons.

1. Clark - While I owned him last year and loved every minute of it, I expect that part of his 100 catch season last year was due to losing A. Gonzalez. Clark is essentially a slot receiver in that offense. While Collie was pretty good for a rookie last year, Peyton targetting Clark often in the middle of the field due to matchups. Frequently Clark would have a monster game followed by a quiet one (5 for 50, quiet by his lofty standards). I expect Collie to mature, Gonzo to play some, Garcon to improve, Wayne to get his, etc. I wouldn't project another 100 catch season. And i don't like taking the 1st TE off the board.

2. Gates - I actually expect this guy to be the #1 TE at the end of season due to the loss of VJax. gates is basically the #1 WR in this offense now, and he should continue to produce catches, yards, and TDs in great numbers. the only thing i don't like about gates is his 4th round price tag. You have to be 100% certain the TE will explode if you take him that early.... and i'm only 90% certain on gates. (only doubts i have are that the offense will be less potent without vjax and mcneil, and theres a chance matthews isn't all that.)

3. Davis - I don't trust Smith to put up the numbers again, 1 because of his talent, and 2 because i expect the team to return to a run-first squad rather than a wide open passing attack.

4. Witten - too many targets in dallas, and he never gets many TDs.

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5 and 6. Finley and Celek. these are the guys who have just as much a chance as the 4 listed above to finish top 3-5, but for a cheaper price. Both can be had in about the 6th round. However I think it MORE likely that some other guy in the real draft will have a man-crush on Finley than Celek. I think it more likely that someone will jump on finley in the 4th or something crazy than Celek. If Celek falls to the 6th, he's my guy. The 1 negative about Finley is the number of targets in GB - assuming Driver comes back healthy, there are then 4 legit WRs on the roster (similar situarion to Clark). Contrast that to someone like Gates who is the clear cut #1 target among all SD options, and i think you can see my point.

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If someone springs for those guys or if there are sick RBs available around that time, which there often are, I have no problem passing on them and then targetting, in order, the following guys: Zach miller, Kellen winslow, or Heath miller in the 8th+ rounds. you might notice that i have Zach Miller as the 8th TE off the board. it has already been aluded to in this thread, but if you expect to steal z.miller in the 12th round, forget it. he's everyone's favorite sleeper.

I like winslow because he's in a situation similar to Gates. there are only rookie WRs, strougher, and george clooney that team. winslow is essentially the number 1 target.

Heath miller is the new zach miller. as i said, everyone knows zach is the best value for TE this year. Don't expect some fool to pick owen daniels or chris cooley before him just cos that's what the mock drafts and ADP data says. heath will benefit from the departure of Holmes.

***

in summary, if finley goes before the 5th/6th round, then yes i consider him to be overvalued. if he comes to you in the 6th, you should seriously consider him. but it's certainly a leap of faith to take him well before his ADP to make sure you get him... of course, that's what makes fantasy fun. I for one do not follow the VBD religion espoused on here. I just don't see the value of saying, "well, i know LT is DONE, but he's such a great VALUE in the 9th round!"

Take who you want, based on your convictions, and don't be afraid to reach to make sure you get your guy.

 
Great discussion in this thread.

I like Finley for all the reasons mentioned but during my mocks I have either taken Gates in the 4th or waited until later and taken guys like Celek if he slips, Shianco, Keller, Cooley, Millers, etc.

TE seems really deep this year. I think if there is one of the top 3 or 4 you really like then take them otherwise just wait. For me Gates is the guy based on proven consistency but I can see a good case for taking Finley a round or 2 later. As well as a good case for waiting on any number of TEs. Did I mention I think TE is REALLY deep this year.

 

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