wanted to add my two sense for what it's worth. when considering Finley, and whether or not he's overvalued, you have to look at the TEs as a whole. Usually I structure my drafts aroudn the QB and TE positions because they are just much easier to "figure out" than RBs and WRs, simply because you only need 1 of each. (excluding backups, of course).
So I expect the TEs to go something like this:
[*]Clark
[*]Gates
[*]Davis
[*]Witten
[*]Finley
[*]Celek
[*]Gonzo
[*]Z.Miller
[*]Winslow
[*]Daniels
[*]Cooley
[*]H. Miller
[*]Carleson
etc
However, I have decided on a two-part TE strategy. 1) I'm looking for Finley or Celek around the 5/6th rounds, or 2) i'm looking for Miller, Winslow, etc, later.
In addition to my disposition to avoid early TEs, I want to avoid the top 4 guys for specific reasons.
1. Clark - While I owned him last year and loved every minute of it, I expect that part of his 100 catch season last year was due to losing A. Gonzalez. Clark is essentially a slot receiver in that offense. While Collie was pretty good for a rookie last year, Peyton targetting Clark often in the middle of the field due to matchups. Frequently Clark would have a monster game followed by a quiet one (5 for 50, quiet by his lofty standards). I expect Collie to mature, Gonzo to play some, Garcon to improve, Wayne to get his, etc. I wouldn't project another 100 catch season. And i don't like taking the 1st TE off the board.
2. Gates - I actually expect this guy to be the #1 TE at the end of season due to the loss of VJax. gates is basically the #1 WR in this offense now, and he should continue to produce catches, yards, and TDs in great numbers. the only thing i don't like about gates is his 4th round price tag. You have to be 100% certain the TE will explode if you take him that early.... and i'm only 90% certain on gates. (only doubts i have are that the offense will be less potent without vjax and mcneil, and theres a chance matthews isn't all that.)
3. Davis - I don't trust Smith to put up the numbers again, 1 because of his talent, and 2 because i expect the team to return to a run-first squad rather than a wide open passing attack.
4. Witten - too many targets in dallas, and he never gets many TDs.
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5 and 6. Finley and Celek. these are the guys who have just as much a chance as the 4 listed above to finish top 3-5, but for a cheaper price. Both can be had in about the 6th round. However I think it MORE likely that some other guy in the real draft will have a man-crush on Finley than Celek. I think it more likely that someone will jump on finley in the 4th or something crazy than Celek. If Celek falls to the 6th, he's my guy. The 1 negative about Finley is the number of targets in GB - assuming Driver comes back healthy, there are then 4 legit WRs on the roster (similar situarion to Clark). Contrast that to someone like Gates who is the clear cut #1 target among all SD options, and i think you can see my point.
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If someone springs for those guys or if there are sick RBs available around that time, which there often are, I have no problem passing on them and then targetting, in order, the following guys: Zach miller, Kellen winslow, or Heath miller in the 8th+ rounds. you might notice that i have Zach Miller as the 8th TE off the board. it has already been aluded to in this thread, but if you expect to steal z.miller in the 12th round, forget it. he's everyone's favorite sleeper.
I like winslow because he's in a situation similar to Gates. there are only rookie WRs, strougher, and george clooney that team. winslow is essentially the number 1 target.
Heath miller is the new zach miller. as i said, everyone knows zach is the best value for TE this year. Don't expect some fool to pick owen daniels or chris cooley before him just cos that's what the mock drafts and ADP data says. heath will benefit from the departure of Holmes.
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in summary, if finley goes before the 5th/6th round, then yes i consider him to be overvalued. if he comes to you in the 6th, you should seriously consider him. but it's certainly a leap of faith to take him well before his ADP to make sure you get him... of course, that's what makes fantasy fun. I for one do not follow the VBD religion espoused on here. I just don't see the value of saying, "well, i know LT is DONE, but he's such a great VALUE in the 9th round!"
Take who you want, based on your convictions, and don't be afraid to reach to make sure you get your guy.