Who Will Win a Bowl First? (2 Viewers)

[twitch]

Gimme a break. Collins was 12-4 leading Carolina to a title game. He was 12-4 with the Giants and a SB QB. Yes. The man knows how to win. He also led Penn State to an undefeated season his sr. season as I recall. Right, he's a winner in my book. Did he win every last game, or not lead some bad teams? Lets maintain some perspective.

In the five seasons before last year, Collins was 16-33.

Right, and in the 3 seasons I mentioned he was 39-10. Your point? My point is in the last 7 years, Jay Cutler has not participated in ONE single winning football season.

 

[trader jake]

Hijack special in here...

Cutler - young, big armed QB on a team with a solid defense and good running game

Cassell - growing QB in a rebuilding effort in KC. Pioli has an impeccable track record

McDaniels - Crennel and Wise don't make me a big believer in Belichick assistants

I voted for Cutler - Cassell second and McDaniels a distant third

 

[Chase Stuart]

Gimme a break. Collins was 12-4 leading Carolina to a title game. He was 12-4 with the Giants and a SB QB. Yes. The man knows how to win. He also led Penn State to an undefeated season his sr. season as I recall. Right, he's a winner in my book. Did he win every last game, or not lead some bad teams? Lets maintain some perspective.

In the five seasons before last year, Collins was 16-33.

Right, and in the 3 seasons I mentioned he was 39-10. Your point? My point is in the last 7 years, Jay Cutler has not participated in ONE single winning football season.

We generally think that what happened in 2008 is more relevant than what happened in 1998. We also grade players based on their individual accomplishments and not their team ones. Willie Parker isn't the best RB in the league just because he won the SB.But I know you're .

 

[The Jacket]

Cassel, because he's got the best GM who knows how to build a championship team.

Amazing how short-sighted a lot of folks here are. KC sucked last year (with a completely different team), there's no way they could possibly compete for a championship in, say, 2014. Good f'ing Lord.

 

[FUBAR]

Cassel, because he's got the best GM who knows how to build a championship team.

Amazing how short-sighted a lot of folks here are. KC sucked last year (with a completely different team), there's no way they could possibly compete for a championship in, say, 2014. Good f'ing Lord.

I'll agree that 2014 is a reasonable projection for KC. Denver will have a new coach by 2014.

Chicago will be in the Super Bowl by 2012. Not sure if they win it, but I'd bet they'll be in it.

I'm not voting for Cutler, but I'll vote for da Bears.

 

[Silver & Black]

Jamarcus Russell

 

[Banger]

Cassel, because he's got the best GM who knows how to build a championship team.

Amazing how short-sighted a lot of folks here are. KC sucked last year (with a completely different team), there's no way they could possibly compete for a championship in, say, 2014. Good f'ing Lord.

Pioli wasn't an option. What are the chances that Cassel is the QB for them or any NFL team in 2014?

 

[Couch Potato]

"None of the above" down?

Count me as vote #2.

 

[The Jacket]

Cassel, because he's got the best GM who knows how to build a championship team.

Amazing how short-sighted a lot of folks here are. KC sucked last year (with a completely different team), there's no way they could possibly compete for a championship in, say, 2014. Good f'ing Lord.

Pioli wasn't an option. What are the chances that Cassel is the QB for them or any NFL team in 2014?

Very high in my estimation. They didn't trade for him to play one year, and I fully expect him to play out a six-year deal. Make it 2012 or 2013 if you prefer - the point is that things can change fast. Look at some of the teams at the top of the 2006 draft -- Tennessee, New Orleans, Arizona.

 

[Despyzer]

What are the chances that Cassel is the QB for them or any NFL team in 2014?

Very high in my estimation. They didn't trade for him to play one year, and I fully expect him to play out a six-year deal. Make it 2012 or 2013 if you prefer - the point is that things can change fast. Look at some of the teams at the top of the 2006 draft -- Tennessee, New Orleans, Arizona.

So the "things can change very fast" argument doesn't apply to your very high expectations that you fully expect him to play out a six year deal? I don't get it. How many QBs do we know are going to start for the same franchise this year that have started each of the previous five? Palmer, P. Manning, Brady, E. Manning, McNabb, Roethlisberger, Hasselback, and maybe Bulger and Delhomme. That's less than a third of the league and some pretty impressive names. Are you really sure Cassel has a "very high" chance of being one of these guys?

 

[FUBAR]

What are the chances that Cassel is the QB for them or any NFL team in 2014?

Very high in my estimation. They didn't trade for him to play one year, and I fully expect him to play out a six-year deal. Make it 2012 or 2013 if you prefer - the point is that things can change fast. Look at some of the teams at the top of the 2006 draft -- Tennessee, New Orleans, Arizona.

So the "things can change very fast" argument doesn't apply to your very high expectations that you fully expect him to play out a six year deal? I don't get it. How many QBs do we know are going to start for the same franchise this year that have started each of the previous five? Palmer, P. Manning, Brady, E. Manning, McNabb, Roethlisberger, Hasselback, and maybe Bulger and Delhomme. That's less than a third of the league and some pretty impressive names. Are you really sure Cassel has a "very high" chance of being one of these guys?

what's the average life expectancy of a starting QB in the NFL? While most of the starting QBs in 2002 were older than Cassel is now, remember the young guns with promise - Couch, Carr, Harrington, Aaron Brooks (only played 3 years at that point)... sure, some pan out well, but far more fail.

 

[cstu]

Cassel, because he's got the best GM who knows how to build a championship team.

Amazing how short-sighted a lot of folks here are. KC sucked last year (with a completely different team), there's no way they could possibly compete for a championship in, say, 2014. Good f'ing Lord.

Pioli wasn't an option. What are the chances that Cassel is the QB for them or any NFL team in 2014?

Very high in my estimation. They didn't trade for him to play one year, and I fully expect him to play out a six-year deal. Make it 2012 or 2013 if you prefer - the point is that things can change fast. Look at some of the teams at the top of the 2006 draft -- Tennessee, New Orleans, Arizona.

Are you Matt Cassel?

 

[The Jacket]

What are the chances that Cassel is the QB for them or any NFL team in 2014?

Very high in my estimation. They didn't trade for him to play one year, and I fully expect him to play out a six-year deal. Make it 2012 or 2013 if you prefer - the point is that things can change fast. Look at some of the teams at the top of the 2006 draft -- Tennessee, New Orleans, Arizona.

So the "things can change very fast" argument doesn't apply to your very high expectations that you fully expect him to play out a six year deal?

No. TEAMS can change very fast (I thought that was clear), but not so much players. And I happen to think Cassel is a keeper. Obviously, if he flames out, my entire argument is null, unless they somehow find a different franchise QB.

 

[twitch]

Gimme a break. Collins was 12-4 leading Carolina to a title game. He was 12-4 with the Giants and a SB QB. Yes. The man knows how to win. He also led Penn State to an undefeated season his sr. season as I recall. Right, he's a winner in my book. Did he win every last game, or not lead some bad teams? Lets maintain some perspective.

In the five seasons before last year, Collins was 16-33.

Right, and in the 3 seasons I mentioned he was 39-10. Your point? My point is in the last 7 years, Jay Cutler has not participated in ONE single winning football season.

We generally think that what happened in 2008 is more relevant than what happened in 1998. We also grade players based on their individual accomplishments and not their team ones. Willie Parker isn't the best RB in the league just because he won the SB.But I know you're .

What exactly was I fishing for there, Chase? Someone to prove exactly how much of a winner Kerry Collins is? Cmon. You veered me off path with this debate over whether or not that guy's a winner. All Ive offered is that he won big with Penn St., Carolina, and the Giants. Did I feel a need to dig up his career record to prove he was a "winner"? Not really. The man knows how to win. But as for "what happened in 2008"? With Collins? Oh, just another highly successful season as a starting QB. I dont recall the record off hand. It was good. Generally speaking, most players arent judged by wins and losses. Theyre judged by production in other areas that people just love to deliberate over. But the reality of the situation is Quarterback isnt just any position. Fair or not, those guys ultimately ARE judged by wins and losses. Some choose to place statistical production above that. But most of the QBs themselves wouldnt do that. The good ones have a more clear understanding of the bottom line.

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

Cassel, because he's got the best GM who knows how to build a championship team.

Amazing how short-sighted a lot of folks here are. KC sucked last year (with a completely different team), there's no way they could possibly compete for a championship in, say, 2014. Good f'ing Lord.

How much stock do you put in Belichek making Pioli's players? The high profile departures, Weiss, Crennel, Mangini, while yes, coaches, have all emerged from the New England camp hyped, but have largely flopped. That doesn't mean Pioli if I'm not mistaken the next success from the Belichek tree will be the first one.

 

[Tau837]

"None of the above" down?

 

[Tau837]

"None of the above" down?

Count me as vote #2.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Here's a fun little factoid for Twitch.

Since Jay Cutler came into the league, which NFL quarterback has the best winning percentage when the defense holds its opponents to 23 points or less? The answer: Jay Cutler, who has won 92.3% of his games when the defense allows 23 points or less. And we're not talking about 7 points or less or something like that here, 23 is a fairly sizeable number for a stat like this, and to win 92.3% of the games under that number is pretty remarkable. It's not Cutler's fault that he plays for one of the few teams in the league that is more likely to allow 30+ points than they are to allow less than 20.

You're right in saying that the quarterback is the most important position on the field, but it's still only 1 position and you give it way, way too much credit. As others have posted, the other teams with defenses that gave up as many points as Denver's were winning 2 and 3 games a year, not 7 and 8 like Denver won. Cutler's 15-17 record the last two years is NOT a mark against him, it's a testament to how good the offense he's lead has been considering that other teams with defenses that bad have records closer to 5-27 over that span.

Kerry Collins is a good example of where your theory DOESN'T work, so I'm not sure why you keep bringing him up. When he is surrounded by bad players, they lose miserably. When he is surrounded by great players, they do well. That doesn't make him a winner, that makes him a roleplayer.

Also, for the love of all that is holy please stop bringing up whether or not people were a "winner" in college. You're only embarrassing yourself with that point. The list of "winners" in college that ended up being flops in the pro's is 10 times the size of those that went on to become successful.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Here's a fun little factoid for Twitch.Since Jay Cutler came into the league, which NFL quarterback has the best winning percentage when the defense holds its opponents to 23 points or less? The answer: Jay Cutler, who has won 92.3% of his games when the defense allows 23 points or less. And we're not talking about 7 points or less or something like that here, 23 is a fairly sizeable number for a stat like this, and to win 92.3% of the games under that number is pretty remarkable. It's not Cutler's fault that he plays for one of the few teams in the league that is more likely to allow 30+ points than they are to allow less than 20.You're right in saying that the quarterback is the most important position on the field, but it's still only 1 position and you give it way, way too much credit. As others have posted, the other teams with defenses that gave up as many points as Denver's were winning 2 and 3 games a year, not 7 and 8 like Denver won. Cutler's 15-17 record the last two years is NOT a mark against him, it's a testament to how good the offense he's lead has been considering that other teams with defenses that bad have records closer to 5-27 over that span.Kerry Collins is a good example of where your theory DOESN'T work, so I'm not sure why you keep bringing him up. When he is surrounded by bad players, they lose miserably. When he is surrounded by great players, they do well. That doesn't make him a winner, that makes him a roleplayer.Also, for the love of all that is holy please stop bringing up whether or not people were a "winner" in college. You're only embarrassing yourself with that point. The list of "winners" in college that ended up being flops in the pro's is 10 times the size of those that went on to become successful.

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=1868

Collins ranks as one of the worst "winners" in NFL history, when you adjust for the number of points (and a couple of other things) his defense allows.

WinsAdded   rnk================================Peyton Manning	   +35.2 (  1)John Elway		   +30.7 (  2)Tom Brady			+27.0 (  3)Brett Favre		  +25.7 (  4)Dan Marino		   +25.4 (  5)Joe Montana		  +23.9 (  6)Daryle Lamonica	  +19.2 (  7)Ken Stabler		  +18.9 (  8 )Jim Kelly			+17.8 (  9)Steve Young		  +17.0 ( 10)Roger Staubach	   +16.1 ( 11)Randall Cunningham   +15.5 ( 12)Johnny Unitas		+15.0 ( 13)Dan Fouts			+14.9 ( 14)Fran Tarkenton	   +14.8 ( 15)Norm Van Brocklin	+14.8 ( 16)Y.A. Tittle		  +14.6 ( 17)Danny White		  +13.7 ( 18)Terry Bradshaw	   +12.9 ( 19)Joe Theismann		 +9.8 ( 20)Kurt Warner		   +9.7 ( 21)Otto Graham		   +9.6 ( 22)Rich Gannon		   +9.4 ( 23)Ben Roethlisberger	+9.3 ( 24)Steve McNair		  +9.2 ( 25)Trent Green		   +8.8 ( 26)Jeff Hostetler		+8.5 ( 27)Jay Schroeder		 +8.5 ( 28)Frank Ryan			+8.4 ( 29)Matt Hasselbeck	   +8.3 ( 30)Drew Brees			+8.1 ( 31)Bobby Layne		   +8.1 ( 32)Eli Manning		   +8.0 ( 33)Philip Rivers		 +7.8 ( 34)Dave Krieg			+7.8 ( 35)Stan Humphries		+7.7 ( 36)John Brodie		   +7.6 ( 37)Bill Nelsen		   +7.0 ( 38)Jake Delhomme		 +6.9 ( 39)Marc Bulger		   +6.6 ( 40)Mark Rypien		   +6.4 ( 41)Donovan McNabb		+6.2 ( 42)Jim Hart			  +6.0 ( 43)Neil Lomax			+5.7 ( 44)Len Dawson			+5.6 ( 45)Warren Moon		   +5.5 ( 46)Charley Johnson	   +5.4 ( 47)Daunte Culpepper	  +5.3 ( 48)Boomer Esiason		+5.1 ( 49)Bert Jones			+5.0 ( 50)Tony Eason			+5.0 ( 51)Joe Namath			+5.0 ( 52)Bart Starr			+4.8 ( 53)Phil Simms			+4.6 ( 54)Steve Grogan		  +4.5 ( 55)Troy Aikman		   +4.4 ( 56)Jack Kemp			 +4.3 ( 57)Ed Brown			  +4.0 ( 58)Michael Vick		  +4.0 ( 59)Dan Pastorini		 +3.9 ( 60)Brian Sipe			+3.9 ( 61)Jim McMahon		   +3.5 ( 62)Carson Palmer		 +3.4 ( 63)Pat Haden			 +3.2 ( 64)Jim Zorn			  +3.0 ( 65)Roman Gabriel		 +2.8 ( 66)Jake Plummer		  +2.7 ( 67)Jim Plunkett		  +2.4 ( 68)Don Meredith		  +2.4 ( 69)Wade Wilson		   +2.3 ( 70)Marc Wilson		   +2.3 ( 71)Neil O'Donnell		+2.2 ( 72)Bobby Hebert		  +2.2 ( 73)David Woodley		 +2.2 ( 74)Tom Flores			+2.1 ( 75)Tommy Kramer		  +2.0 ( 76)George Blanda		 +1.7 ( 77)Jeff Garcia		   +1.7 ( 78)Tobin Rote			+1.6 ( 79)John Hadl			 +1.6 ( 80)Brad Johnson		  +1.4 ( 81)Billy Wade			+1.4 ( 82)Billy Kilmer		  +1.3 ( 83)Gus Frerotte		  +1.3 ( 84)Aaron Brooks		  +1.1 ( 85)Kordell Stewart	   +1.1 ( 86)Bob Griese			+1.1 ( 87)Earl Morrall		  +0.9 ( 88)Erik Kramer		   +0.9 ( 89)Mike Phipps		   +0.7 ( 90)Doug Flutie		   +0.7 ( 91)Mike Tomczak		  +0.4 ( 92)Sonny Jurgensen	   +0.3 ( 93)Elvis Grbac		   +0.1 ( 94)Milt Plum			 +0.1 ( 95)Scott Mitchell		-0.0 ( 96)Rodney Peete		  -0.0 ( 97)Vince Ferragamo	   -0.1 ( 98)Charlie Conerly	   -0.2 ( 99)Mark Brunell		  -0.3 (100)Steve Bartkowski	  -0.4 (101)Babe Parilli		  -0.5 (102)Richard Todd		  -0.6 (103)Brian Griese		  -0.6 (104)Ken Anderson		  -0.6 (105)Jeff Blake			-0.6 (106)Ken O'Brien		   -0.8 (107)Bernie Kosar		  -1.1 (108)Chad Pennington	   -1.3 (109)Jay Fiedler		   -1.5 (110)Jon Kitna			 -1.5 (111)Gary Danielson		-2.2 (112)Don Majkowski		 -2.3 (113)Bubby Brister		 -2.4 (114)Bob Avellini		  -2.5 (115)Joe Kapp			  -2.9 (116)Greg Landry		   -2.9 (117)Eric Hipple		   -3.0 (118)Jim Everett		   -3.4 (119)Drew Bledsoe		  -3.5 (120)Lynn Dickey		   -3.9 (121)Craig Morton		  -4.0 (122)Doug Williams		 -4.1 (123)Mike Livingston	   -4.1 (124)Bill Munson		   -4.2 (125)Kerry Collins		 -4.6 (126)Chris Chandler		-4.7 (127)Chris Miller		  -4.7 (128)Bill Kenney		   -4.8 (129)Lamar McHan		   -4.9 (130)Mark Malone		   -5.1 (131)Jeff George		   -5.2 (132)Dave M. Brown		 -5.3 (133)Eddie LeBaron		 -5.3 (134)Mike Pagel			-5.5 (135)Tim Couch			 -5.5 (136)Bob Berry			 -5.6 (137)Tony Banks			-5.9 (138)Cotton Davidson	   -6.0 (139)Rick Mirer			-6.2 (140)Joe Ferguson		  -6.9 (141)Bobby Douglass		-6.9 (142)Steve DeBerg		  -7.0 (143)Steve Beuerlein	   -7.0 (144)Ron Jaworski		  -8.3 (145)Jim Harbaugh		  -8.5 (146)Trent Dilfer		  -9.9 (147)Vinny Testaverde	 -10.6 (148)David Carr		   -10.8 (149)Joey Harrington	  -12.4 (150)Norm Snead		   -14.3 (151)Archie Manning	   -15.8 (152)

Of course, even grading QBs by wins after adjusting for defenses still isn't perfect. But it's a lot better than regular old winning percentage.

 

[bcr8f]

These 3 teams averaged 6.3 wins and 9.7 losses last year.

 

[twitch]

Here's a fun little factoid for Twitch.Since Jay Cutler came into the league, which NFL quarterback has the best winning percentage when the defense holds its opponents to 23 points or less? The answer: Jay Cutler, who has won 92.3% of his games when the defense allows 23 points or less. And we're not talking about 7 points or less or something like that here, 23 is a fairly sizeable number for a stat like this, and to win 92.3% of the games under that number is pretty remarkable. It's not Cutler's fault that he plays for one of the few teams in the league that is more likely to allow 30+ points than they are to allow less than 20.You're right in saying that the quarterback is the most important position on the field, but it's still only 1 position and you give it way, way too much credit. As others have posted, the other teams with defenses that gave up as many points as Denver's were winning 2 and 3 games a year, not 7 and 8 like Denver won. Cutler's 15-17 record the last two years is NOT a mark against him, it's a testament to how good the offense he's lead has been considering that other teams with defenses that bad have records closer to 5-27 over that span.Kerry Collins is a good example of where your theory DOESN'T work, so I'm not sure why you keep bringing him up. When he is surrounded by bad players, they lose miserably. When he is surrounded by great players, they do well. That doesn't make him a winner, that makes him a roleplayer.Also, for the love of all that is holy please stop bringing up whether or not people were a "winner" in college. You're only embarrassing yourself with that point. The list of "winners" in college that ended up being flops in the pro's is 10 times the size of those that went on to become successful.

Yeah, youre just a little too bright for me to hang with. I better bow out while I still have hollow leg left to stand on. Cutler's the losingest "winner" Ive ever seen in my life. That's funny stuff. You guys are cute. Thanks for the laugh.

 

[twitch]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=1868

Collins ranks as one of the worst "winners" in NFL history, when you adjust for the number of points (and a couple of other things) his defense allows.

WinsAdded   rnk================================Peyton Manning	   +35.2 (  1)John Elway		   +30.7 (  2)Tom Brady			+27.0 (  3)Brett Favre		  +25.7 (  4)Dan Marino		   +25.4 (  5)Joe Montana		  +23.9 (  6)Daryle Lamonica	  +19.2 (  7)Ken Stabler		  +18.9 (  8 )Jim Kelly			+17.8 (  9)Steve Young		  +17.0 ( 10)Roger Staubach	   +16.1 ( 11)Randall Cunningham   +15.5 ( 12)Johnny Unitas		+15.0 ( 13)Dan Fouts			+14.9 ( 14)Fran Tarkenton	   +14.8 ( 15)Norm Van Brocklin	+14.8 ( 16)Y.A. Tittle		  +14.6 ( 17)Danny White		  +13.7 ( 18)Terry Bradshaw	   +12.9 ( 19)Joe Theismann		 +9.8 ( 20)Kurt Warner		   +9.7 ( 21)Otto Graham		   +9.6 ( 22)Rich Gannon		   +9.4 ( 23)Ben Roethlisberger	+9.3 ( 24)Steve McNair		  +9.2 ( 25)Trent Green		   +8.8 ( 26)Jeff Hostetler		+8.5 ( 27)Jay Schroeder		 +8.5 ( 28)Frank Ryan			+8.4 ( 29)Matt Hasselbeck	   +8.3 ( 30)Drew Brees			+8.1 ( 31)Bobby Layne		   +8.1 ( 32)Eli Manning		   +8.0 ( 33)Philip Rivers		 +7.8 ( 34)Dave Krieg			+7.8 ( 35)Stan Humphries		+7.7 ( 36)John Brodie		   +7.6 ( 37)Bill Nelsen		   +7.0 ( 38)Jake Delhomme		 +6.9 ( 39)Marc Bulger		   +6.6 ( 40)Mark Rypien		   +6.4 ( 41)Donovan McNabb		+6.2 ( 42)Jim Hart			  +6.0 ( 43)Neil Lomax			+5.7 ( 44)Len Dawson			+5.6 ( 45)Warren Moon		   +5.5 ( 46)Charley Johnson	   +5.4 ( 47)Daunte Culpepper	  +5.3 ( 48)Boomer Esiason		+5.1 ( 49)Bert Jones			+5.0 ( 50)Tony Eason			+5.0 ( 51)Joe Namath			+5.0 ( 52)Bart Starr			+4.8 ( 53)Phil Simms			+4.6 ( 54)Steve Grogan		  +4.5 ( 55)Troy Aikman		   +4.4 ( 56)Jack Kemp			 +4.3 ( 57)Ed Brown			  +4.0 ( 58)Michael Vick		  +4.0 ( 59)Dan Pastorini		 +3.9 ( 60)Brian Sipe			+3.9 ( 61)Jim McMahon		   +3.5 ( 62)Carson Palmer		 +3.4 ( 63)Pat Haden			 +3.2 ( 64)Jim Zorn			  +3.0 ( 65)Roman Gabriel		 +2.8 ( 66)Jake Plummer		  +2.7 ( 67)Jim Plunkett		  +2.4 ( 68)Don Meredith		  +2.4 ( 69)Wade Wilson		   +2.3 ( 70)Marc Wilson		   +2.3 ( 71)Neil O'Donnell		+2.2 ( 72)Bobby Hebert		  +2.2 ( 73)David Woodley		 +2.2 ( 74)Tom Flores			+2.1 ( 75)Tommy Kramer		  +2.0 ( 76)George Blanda		 +1.7 ( 77)Jeff Garcia		   +1.7 ( 78)Tobin Rote			+1.6 ( 79)John Hadl			 +1.6 ( 80)Brad Johnson		  +1.4 ( 81)Billy Wade			+1.4 ( 82)Billy Kilmer		  +1.3 ( 83)Gus Frerotte		  +1.3 ( 84)Aaron Brooks		  +1.1 ( 85)Kordell Stewart	   +1.1 ( 86)Bob Griese			+1.1 ( 87)Earl Morrall		  +0.9 ( 88)Erik Kramer		   +0.9 ( 89)Mike Phipps		   +0.7 ( 90)Doug Flutie		   +0.7 ( 91)Mike Tomczak		  +0.4 ( 92)Sonny Jurgensen	   +0.3 ( 93)Elvis Grbac		   +0.1 ( 94)Milt Plum			 +0.1 ( 95)Scott Mitchell		-0.0 ( 96)Rodney Peete		  -0.0 ( 97)Vince Ferragamo	   -0.1 ( 98)Charlie Conerly	   -0.2 ( 99)Mark Brunell		  -0.3 (100)Steve Bartkowski	  -0.4 (101)Babe Parilli		  -0.5 (102)Richard Todd		  -0.6 (103)Brian Griese		  -0.6 (104)Ken Anderson		  -0.6 (105)Jeff Blake			-0.6 (106)Ken O'Brien		   -0.8 (107)Bernie Kosar		  -1.1 (108)Chad Pennington	   -1.3 (109)Jay Fiedler		   -1.5 (110)Jon Kitna			 -1.5 (111)Gary Danielson		-2.2 (112)Don Majkowski		 -2.3 (113)Bubby Brister		 -2.4 (114)Bob Avellini		  -2.5 (115)Joe Kapp			  -2.9 (116)Greg Landry		   -2.9 (117)Eric Hipple		   -3.0 (118)Jim Everett		   -3.4 (119)Drew Bledsoe		  -3.5 (120)Lynn Dickey		   -3.9 (121)Craig Morton		  -4.0 (122)Doug Williams		 -4.1 (123)Mike Livingston	   -4.1 (124)Bill Munson		   -4.2 (125)Kerry Collins		 -4.6 (126)Chris Chandler		-4.7 (127)Chris Miller		  -4.7 (128)Bill Kenney		   -4.8 (129)Lamar McHan		   -4.9 (130)Mark Malone		   -5.1 (131)Jeff George		   -5.2 (132)Dave M. Brown		 -5.3 (133)Eddie LeBaron		 -5.3 (134)Mike Pagel			-5.5 (135)Tim Couch			 -5.5 (136)Bob Berry			 -5.6 (137)Tony Banks			-5.9 (138)Cotton Davidson	   -6.0 (139)Rick Mirer			-6.2 (140)Joe Ferguson		  -6.9 (141)Bobby Douglass		-6.9 (142)Steve DeBerg		  -7.0 (143)Steve Beuerlein	   -7.0 (144)Ron Jaworski		  -8.3 (145)Jim Harbaugh		  -8.5 (146)Trent Dilfer		  -9.9 (147)Vinny Testaverde	 -10.6 (148)David Carr		   -10.8 (149)Joey Harrington	  -12.4 (150)Norm Snead		   -14.3 (151)Archie Manning	   -15.8 (152)

Of course, even grading QBs by wins after adjusting for defenses still isn't perfect. But it's a lot better than regular old winning percentage.

And as usual, re-defining the term overanalyze. I fell asleep on page 17, btw. Sorry, that's just too much information for anyone's good.

 

[bcr8f]

Here's a fun little factoid for Twitch.

Since Jay Cutler came into the league, which NFL quarterback has the best winning percentage when the defense holds its opponents to 23 points or less? The answer: Jay Cutler, who has won 92.3% of his games when the defense allows 23 points or less. And we're not talking about 7 points or less or something like that here, 23 is a fairly sizeable number for a stat like this, and to win 92.3% of the games under that number is pretty remarkable. It's not Cutler's fault that he plays for one of the few teams in the league that is more likely to allow 30+ points than they are to allow less than 20.

You're right in saying that the quarterback is the most important position on the field, but it's still only 1 position and you give it way, way too much credit. As others have posted, the other teams with defenses that gave up as many points as Denver's were winning 2 and 3 games a year, not 7 and 8 like Denver won. Cutler's 15-17 record the last two years is NOT a mark against him, it's a testament to how good the offense he's lead has been considering that other teams with defenses that bad have records closer to 5-27 over that span.

Kerry Collins is a good example of where your theory DOESN'T work, so I'm not sure why you keep bringing him up. When he is surrounded by bad players, they lose miserably. When he is surrounded by great players, they do well. That doesn't make him a winner, that makes him a roleplayer.

Also, for the love of all that is holy please stop bringing up whether or not people were a "winner" in college. You're only embarrassing yourself with that point. The list of "winners" in college that ended up being flops in the pro's is 10 times the size of those that went on to become successful.

Well in that case the Bears will be 12-4 next season. Of their losses they gave up over 23 only four timrs.

 

[money.never.sleeps]

I don't believe any of these teams will be winning a Super Bowl but if I had to choose I'd go Bears. (even though the defense isn't what it once was, holes in offensive line and dont say Orlando Pace is going to be a big difference or stay healthy.. there's a reason the offensive line thin Rams let him go, and no true #1 WR.. I don't believe Devin Hester is a reliable answer either) They also traded off picks which they could've addressed these needs with.

Guess its a gamble so we'll see if Cutler is the answer instead of filling holes they prob. needed desperately more.

I like what the Chiefs have done but they've got a long ways to go. Def. not out of the question.

Mcdaniels... either a genius or fired within 3 seasons.