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Bush still has room to grow as a wideout , MJD will never even smell that realm.6'0 vs 5'7 is an advantage any way you look at it. Even with the height diff Bush is faster and more agile(quick twitch included) than Drew.There so much Bush can do, I dont think NO's has maximized Bush yet. With MJD its easy to utilize him , he an easy read , a human wreckingball , give him the rock run up the gut.
Dude I like MJD ALOT but Reggie Bush? Compare MJD to Steven Jackson i would tell you MJD could be just as good fantasy wise or better , Larry Johnson ? ..sure There pure hardnose Runningbacks , Reggie is different , hes more than a Runningback , Hes a WR and just a overall put me somewhere to make a playguy. You wont see the Jags gameplanning for MJD like NO will for Bush and its not because one staff sucks , its becasue Bush can do more for your offense.Just give Reggie some time guys damn.
I was with you up until Bush being Lucky and I guess MJD wasnt ?MJD walked into a kickass running game with Fragile Fred there to teach you ropes and all they did was feed him the rock.Bush had to compete with Joe Horn/Colston/D Henderson on the recieving end and Deuce on the RB side and was thrown a hell of alot more playbook to learn than MJD. I still dont think NO's has tapped Bush's potential.
Tim, I hate to do this to you but you are asking me to make a fool of you so I shall. The comment about comparable stats means that you can't just look at two numbers and assume one makes a player better than another. In this case total number of receptions can't be looked at in order to assume who has the better hands. Opportunity plays a big role. These numbers are for arguments sake, because I don't know the actual targets. For arguments sake, if Bush had 150 targets and caught 89 of them and MJD had 60 targets and caught 46 of them, which has the better hands? Which made the most of the opportunities given. We all know that Bush got a lot of opportunities to catch the ball. Did he make more of those opportunities than what MJD with his? I don't know. But if you simply look at the number of catches a guy has and assume he has better hands then you are very short sighted which is pretty much evident by this post which shows an utter lack of understanding of statistics. Sure you can't say that a guy that was targetted twice and caught both is better because the two catches doesn't have enough statistical weight to be calculated. It's called statistical power.....Oh, never mind....Might as well
Of course they are. What else are we supposed to compare? College stats? I'm sure those are comparable too, right. Reggie had a much better year so he must be the better back, right? What did I say all last offseason? With that O-Line at USC Bush never ran through holes. He ran through hallways opened by that massive O-line. Nobody gets that kinda room in the NFL and Reggie is behind the curve on running between the tackles because of it. Sure, he got better as the season went on, but not as much as MJD did.
Comedy. If we do the same for Bush, his numbers drop too. Maybe head back to college for a stats class.
These were exactlu the stats I was looking for. MJD is MUCH better between the tackles and seems to be just as good if not a little better at catching the ball. I'm guessing there is not statistical difference between the 73% and 75% but I'm not doing the analysis of variance to find out. But at least he made just as many catches based on targets as Bush did and got more yards with those catches....What else you got BJs? Gonna explain how the moon's cycle affects the running of Bush but not MJD? Or are you going to attempt to argue the stats some more because that's just funny!?!?!
First off in a PPR Dynasty league last year - MJD put up 288.70 and Bush put up 281.10 so from that perspective im not swayed.About your lats 2 paragraphs... I have yet to mention any crap about defenses, we both agree we only have 1 year of data. MJD can only get a little better than what he was last year ... a kickass runningback on a run first team, people act like MJD was so deprived by being put in his situation and Bush was given so much.Bush can become something the NFL has never seen someone who could be one of the best at WR and RB.Were all entitled to our opinions and EVERYONE here is really speculating no matter who you choose , its just too premature. But I will say this Bush is bigger(as a target), faster and more agile can be used in ways MJD cannot and this is why I belive when all is said and done Bush will go down as a unique NFL game-breaker.Good grief Sleeper_43,That looks like a sentence taken directly from KISSREGGIE'SBUTT.COM. Come on.MJD scored in 12 out of 14 games in which he touched the ball more than 4 times.Bush scored in only 7 out of 18 games.Who impacted more games for their team?How can you say Bush had more impact while keeping a straight keyboard?Please spare me the tired argument about him taking the attention of the entire Defense, blah, blah, blah. Yes, Reggie is a blessed football player and yes the Saints play calling faked a few Defenses out. That argument is purely subjective and completely ignores the possible play fakes for the Jaguars when comparing MJD or any other possible RB.You only have one year of data for each guy anything else is hype. Saying that Bush will be this or that in the future is ridiculous, claiming that another RB is less than Bush is ridiculous as well especially when no data supports your claims. Bush finished with less than a 4 YPR clip for the season, and he underperformed compared to his hype and to MJD no matter what figures you choose to leave out in order to elevate Bush!
Whats funny is you saying MJD's got better hands than Bush , I think your forgeting whose the more one dimensional of the two.Do you really think MJD had to grasp as much as Bush did his rookie season, I really think Bush will be able to react more this year and think less.O and MJD got more carries than Bush last year I guess the numbers are all skewed now!These were exactlu the stats I was looking for. MJD is MUCH better between the tackles and seems to be just as good if not a little better at catching the ball. I'm guessing there is not statistical difference between the 73% and 75% but I'm not doing the analysis of variance to find out. But at least he made just as many catches based on targets as Bush did and got more yards with those catches....What else you got BJs? Gonna explain how the moon's cycle affects the running of Bush but not MJD? Or are you going to attempt to argue the stats some more because that's just funny!?!?!
Before you dismiss the small guy's receiving talents, MJD did have 46 receptions (3 games he had 0 receptions) so he seems to be a serviceable receiver out of the backfield. Now his being 5'6" wont make him the best option to split out in the slot or wide like Reggie Bush occasionally would line up for the Saints.MJD seems like the kind of reliable, consistent week to week 80-100 combined yards & 1 TD, while Bush is feast or famine--50 combined yards, or 150-200 total yards and 3-4 TDs.
I agree that Drew was also lucky. But I think Drew would have been productive in just about any situation. He's a RB that can run away from defenders and make them miss. He can break tackles and catch the ball. He's has all the skills of a traditonal third down back but can also pick up short yardage and run through people. He could have found a niche on just about any team.Does that mean Bush stinks? Not at all. I'm a big fan of Reggie and think he has once in a decade skills. But I think the first half of last season proved that his skills are not the type that you can just plug into any existing offense. I'd guess that at least half the teams in the NFL would have tried to force feed Bush into a more traditonal rolls either as a featured RB or just used him like a traditional third down back. He would not have been nearly as productive in such rolls. NO looked at his skills and tailored a position for him to play, that was lucky.
Is it fair to say one person might get more targets becasue they a regarded by thier staff as a better reciever? I promise you MJD wont ever ever line up at WR like Bush will and run crisp routes.The rest of your comments i agree on.Tim, I hate to do this to you but you are asking me to make a fool of you so I shall. The comment about comparable stats means that you can't just look at two numbers and assume one makes a player better than another. In this case total number of receptions can't be looked at in order to assume who has the better hands. Opportunity plays a big role. These numbers are for arguments sake, because I don't know the actual targets. For arguments sake, if Bush had 150 targets and caught 89 of them and MJD had 60 targets and caught 46 of them, which has the better hands? Which made the most of the opportunities given. We all know that Bush got a lot of opportunities to catch the ball. Did he make more of those opportunities than what MJD with his? I don't know. But if you simply look at the number of catches a guy has and assume he has better hands then you are very short sighted which is pretty much evident by this post which shows an utter lack of understanding of statistics. Sure you can't say that a guy that was targetted twice and caught both is better because the two catches doesn't have enough statistical weight to be calculated. It's called statistical power.....Oh, never mind....Might as well
Oh, and gotta love you comment that the stats we are comparing are from last year
I also loved how you wanted to take out MJD's long runs because they inflate his YPC
Try comparing their gamelogs from last season and see if you still feel that way.
Is it fair to say one person might get more targets because his team made him the highest paid RB in the entire NFL and figured since they were paying him such an insane amount of money, they had to use him a lot?Unless, of course, you think Ryan Leaf got so many pass attempts because he had his team convinced that he was the best player on the roster. And Boller lasted so long with Baltimore because he kept showing the coaches so much on the field.
Do you read the post or just patting yourself on the back right away telling you how great you are?I'll actually just ask you a quick ?. Did you watch alot of the games last year or did you just see sportscenter or read the game stats at the end? Cause if you saw the games live, which I don't think you did alot of, you wouldn't be comparing the 2 at recieving. Also answer me this, which I asked early about your world changing theoryTim, I hate to do this to you but you are asking me to make a fool of you so I shall. The comment about comparable stats means that you can't just look at two numbers and assume one makes a player better than another. In this case total number of receptions can't be looked at in order to assume who has the better hands. Opportunity plays a big role. These numbers are for arguments sake, because I don't know the actual targets. For arguments sake, if Bush had 150 targets and caught 89 of them and MJD had 60 targets and caught 46 of them, which has the better hands? Which made the most of the opportunities given. We all know that Bush got a lot of opportunities to catch the ball. Did he make more of those opportunities than what MJD with his? I don't know. But if you simply look at the number of catches a guy has and assume he has better hands then you are very short sighted which is pretty much evident by this post which shows an utter lack of understanding of statistics. Sure you can't say that a guy that was targetted twice and caught both is better because the two catches doesn't have enough statistical weight to be calculated. It's called statistical power.....Oh, never mind....Might as well
Oh, and gotta love you comment that the stats we are comparing are from last year
I also loved how you wanted to take out MJD's long runs because they inflate his YPC
would say Alstott has better hands if he caught the only 2 passes thrown his way in a year. I mean he is 2 for 2, his % is higher. I do remember many of things you said about Bush, you said how awful he was and overrated.....do ou think your right? Obviously if you think he is an awful player you didn't see the games... like I thought or you know nothing about football which is a good possibility. I'm waiting for you to make me look like a fool cause I didn't see it.
And you've got Reggie Bush. Difference?Do you read the post or just patting yourself on the back right away telling you how great you are?I'll actually just ask you a quick ?. Did you watch alot of the games last year or did you just see sportscenter or read the game stats at the end? Cause if you saw the games live, which I don't think you did alot of, you wouldn't be comparing the 2 at recieving. Also answer me this, which I asked early about your world changing theoryTim, I hate to do this to you but you are asking me to make a fool of you so I shall. The comment about comparable stats means that you can't just look at two numbers and assume one makes a player better than another. In this case total number of receptions can't be looked at in order to assume who has the better hands. Opportunity plays a big role. These numbers are for arguments sake, because I don't know the actual targets. For arguments sake, if Bush had 150 targets and caught 89 of them and MJD had 60 targets and caught 46 of them, which has the better hands? Which made the most of the opportunities given. We all know that Bush got a lot of opportunities to catch the ball. Did he make more of those opportunities than what MJD with his? I don't know. But if you simply look at the number of catches a guy has and assume he has better hands then you are very short sighted which is pretty much evident by this post which shows an utter lack of understanding of statistics. Sure you can't say that a guy that was targetted twice and caught both is better because the two catches doesn't have enough statistical weight to be calculated. It's called statistical power.....Oh, never mind....Might as well
Oh, and gotta love you comment that the stats we are comparing are from last year
I also loved how you wanted to take out MJD's long runs because they inflate his YPC
I got a sig bet with you that Reggie Bush outscores MJD in our league this year Scotty, YOU IN?
For you that don't know The Fanatic just recieved MJD in a trade and is now showing his homerism for the guy.
I've had him since last year and before I drafted him I pimped him as being a stud. I didn't just get him and and then since he was on my team decide how good he was. That is the definition of being a homer. It is jumping up 5 or 6 spots cause he is now on your team which is something I didn't do.
I realize you don't know jack about stats Tim, but I thought you could at least read. Go back up and read the bolded parts. I tried to explain that there has to be a significant amount of catches for the catch per target stat to have relavence. In fact I used a RB getting two targets and catching both and yet you tried to use that very same example against my much more reliable statistical example. Sad....just sad....And did I see Bush play? Of course I did. I caught some games and who could miss the hourly highlight reel on ESPN. I really loved the game where he had like 5 carries. One was for 6 yards where he made some beautiful juke moves. That play was all over ESPN. If you watched the rest of the game you would've seen Bush have 4 or 5 more carries, all for losses. But the hype machine was in full swing and you had a stiffy the rest of the week every time you saw sportscenter show the highlight.Do you read the post or just patting yourself on the back right away telling you how great you are?I'll actually just ask you a quick ?. Did you watch alot of the games last year or did you just see sportscenter or read the game stats at the end? Cause if you saw the games live, which I don't think you did alot of, you wouldn't be comparing the 2 at recieving. Also answer me this, which I asked early about your world changing theoryTim, I hate to do this to you but you are asking me to make a fool of you so I shall. The comment about comparable stats means that you can't just look at two numbers and assume one makes a player better than another. In this case total number of receptions can't be looked at in order to assume who has the better hands. Opportunity plays a big role. These numbers are for arguments sake, because I don't know the actual targets. For arguments sake, if Bush had 150 targets and caught 89 of them and MJD had 60 targets and caught 46 of them, which has the better hands? Which made the most of the opportunities given. We all know that Bush got a lot of opportunities to catch the ball. Did he make more of those opportunities than what MJD with his? I don't know. But if you simply look at the number of catches a guy has and assume he has better hands then you are very short sighted which is pretty much evident by this post which shows an utter lack of understanding of statistics. Sure you can't say that a guy that was targetted twice and caught both is better because the two catches doesn't have enough statistical weight to be calculated. It's called statistical power.....Oh, never mind....Might as well
Oh, and gotta love you comment that the stats we are comparing are from last year
I also loved how you wanted to take out MJD's long runs because they inflate his YPCComedy. If we do the same for Bush, his numbers drop too. Maybe head back to college for a stats class.
I got a sig bet with you that Reggie Bush outscores MJD in our league this year Scotty, YOU IN?
For you that don't know The Fanatic just recieved MJD in a trade and is now showing his homerism for the guy.
fixed. if you're going to throw out stats make sure they're correct
For the exact same reason you used in your own post is why its un balanced to compare him to the other WRs on the team or in the league....he had alot of swing passes and dumps. Starting your catches 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage is far from an advantage. If he lined up wide for all the catches im sure we'd be looking at different numbers.
This is well put an this is what i see the consensus believing. The hype makes people hate more than normal for some reason. Its not Bushs fault hes hyped to be a god by some. I agree MJD is the consistent and smart pick but when Bush showed flashes of his best last year the flashes are things that MJD cant do, so i guess im just saying Bushs ceiling seems so much higher to me and it is worth the few fantasy points diff (less than 10 in a standard ppr) to see if that comes out more often in him during his 2nd season.
In a non PPR league Bush had 171 points last year. MJD had 219. Major difference. League scoring is vital in this debate. In a PPR league Bush is on equal footing with MJD and has a much higher potential. If Bush just gets his YPC up to say 4.2 and still catches 90 balls a year he will be a monster in PPR leagues. In non PPR leagues he still has a way to go to catch MJD's production.I have the feeling this thread is going to get bumped every Sunday all season long, particularly when one of these guys has a bad game and the other has a good game....Should be fun....Sleeper 43 said:
understood. for comparrisons you might want to stick with season stats. not everyone makes the playoffs, and there is less confusion. you also might want to research bush's YAC. that might strengthen you're conclusion.my contention has always been that bush is an eric metcalf clone. having been a browns, and falcons fan, i saw alot of eric. not that eric didn't have a good 13 year career. he had 2 season's of 600 yards rushing, and finished with a little over 2000 for his career. not what the browns had envisioned though when they traded up to take him in the top ten as a RB. he did have several 50, & 60 reception seasons, and one 104 catch season with the falcons as a WR.metcalf and bush share one very similar aspect. they both could score a TD anytime they thouched the ball. AS LONG AS no one touched them. i don't think bushed proved anything his rookie season. you can yell about splits, and his 2nd half all you want. he still ended up with dreadful numbers. sure he caught 88 passes at 8 yards per. considering how he was used, that average should have been 2 points higher. if he dosn't start doing more with them, they start throwing somewhere else. how about 3.6 on his running. it's not like he was doing 3rd and ones. c'mon. duece did the grunt work, and bush got the gravy plays, and still was 1/2 a yard short of 4.0. i think the most glaring is the measly 7.7 on punt returns. dennis northcutt could do better than that with 1 arm tied behind his back. i think bush has alot of work to do this year, to substantiate his hypeDancing Bear said:
Pretty sure I missed this, but can someone explain to me, why did MJD have a better year?Luck?Bush was on the #1 offense, was force fed the ball, given lots of RZ touches.Again, why did MJD have a better year? From what I can tell, the answer is that Bush is an elite talent, got off to a rough start, but if you look at him in the 2nd half, he's pretty much dominating the NFL.So the better RB had a harder time translating to the NFL. The better RB had less production in the 2nd half then MJD.I didn't know being "elite talent" make things harder. An average joe like MJD I guess can assimilate easier.
Uh, no Tim, these are seperate issues. Apples to oranges. And you need to stop trying to argue stats because you don't know what you are talking about. Seriously, you are making a fool of yourself. I would go into more detail here but it will go over your head. Not taking a shot here, but it's pretty obvious that you don't fully understand the argument you are trying to refute and every time you post trying to argue these numbers you look more ridiculous. A wise man once said it is better to be thought of a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. You keep opening your mouth and removing more and more doubt.Sig bet that MJD outscores reggie in our league this year barring injury? Sure thing....How long? A week? Two weeks? A month? You call it....
Jurb, I respect your opinion and I think the numbers do show that MJD clearly had the better year and even a very slight edge in the 2nd half.That being said, I do think that it is possible that MJD "snuck" up on the league a little bit. Teams did not spend the hours dissecting his tendencies as of yet, but teams were clearly preparing for Bush. Now this does not mean that I think Bush is better, I am just stating that it would be unfair to say that teams were as worried about MJD as they were Bush even if the talent around Bush was better. Watching film, there were times Bush was doubled coming out of the backfield which is really rare.Yeah, OK let's do that. Only 2nd half stats:MJDDid you watch the Saints/Eagles in the playoffs. The Eagles were so scared of Reggie in the flats that the vaunted TE trio of Miller/Owens/Campbell combined for over 100 yards.You'd think people in the "shark pool" would watch more football.
| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 10 hou | 3 11 | 56 | 1 || 11 nyg | 9 45 | 16 | 1 || 12 buf | 8 78 | 47 | 1 || 13 mia | 5 46 | 0 | 1 || 14 ind | 15 166 | 15 | 2 || 15 ten | 25 98 | 47 | 1 || 16 nwe | 19 131 | 41 | 2 || 17 kan | 12 46 | 16 | 1 |Rushing: 96 carries, 621 yds, 6.47 avgReceiving: 25 rec, 238 yds, 9.52 avg
10 total TDs
107.4 total yds, 1.25 Tds per game
Bush
+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 10 pit | 10 49 | 40 | 1 || 11 cin | 13 51 | 58 | 0 || 12 atl | 5 24 | 21 | 0 || 13 sfo | 10 37 | 131 | 4 || 14 dal | 6 37 | 125 | 1 || 15 was | 7 14 | 19 | 0 || 16 nyg | 20 126 | 23 | 1 || 17 car | 3 20 | 13 | 1 | phi | 12 52 1 | 3 22 0 chi | 4 19 0 | 7 132 1Rushing: 90 carries, 429 yds, 4.77 avgReceiving: 52 rec, 584 yds, 11.2 avg
101.3 total yds, 0.90 Tds per game
Even your cherry picked stats show MJD as the better player. MJD scored more TDs in less games and on far less touches (I gave Bush the benefit of his 2 playoff games). Furthermore, MJD has better total yardage, the same yds per touch and a far better yds per carry.
For all the progress Bush made during the 2nd half of last season. He was in reality only shipping away at the iceberg that was catching up to MJD.
I'll go sig bet for Tues through Mon. after each game (all 16 inclusing bye weeks so you can atlewast get 1). The higher scorer for the week gets the signatureAnd your right, I don't get those stats with all the curveballs you put in. If you made a statement and followed it I would follow it just fine. Name calling and insults usually show that one person can't find anything useful to say to back up their statements so they have to switch to this approach. You made a statement with a theory and I made the exact same statement with the same theory. Apples to oranges
cause one shows your point and one doesn't. Your reasoning of argueing is "Cause I said so." Doesn't work around here kid....How's that Ricky's gonna be starting in Miami thing working for you. Another wrong projection by Scotty the genius...and you think I look foolish.Again I like MJD but just think Bush is better, that was the original ?.
You really missed the point here. What Fanatic is trying to say here is that statical quantity is the telling difference between a guy like alsott and MJD. For example, if by some stroke of luck I happen to be on the field for one play and happen to break a long run, it tells nothing about my actual ability. If I continued to do so over an extended period of time, then it may be telling that I do have ability. Comparing 2 catches to an entire season's worth of catches is akin to comparing apples and orange.Forgive me for being so blunt, but shouldnt this be obvious? That aside, I really see no room for agreement here. Its hard to compare because of their respective situations; while Jacksonville was a run-first team and Drew is the epitome of tough, gritty running, he will have to put up with Taylor stealing a good chunk of carries and also will have to deal with a new OC who has repeatedly stated his interest in developing the downfield passing game via play-action. While this in theory should help Drew's stats, it still remains to see if the Jaguars have the skill players to pull this off. However, barring a major overhaul he will get a sizeable chunk of carries and fully expect him to replicate his success from last year. Bush also is a very dynamic talent, but because of his abilities, using him as an every-down, between the tackles back doesnt play up to his skills and really isnt his forte. That is limiting him from a fantasy standpoint but he more than makes up for it by his spellbinding efforts to create, gain yards out of nowhere and knack to break a long one if defenses aren't careful. The Saints vertical attack is going to aid him through his tenure in New Orleans as defenses will be forced to stay honest and pin their ears back against Colston and Meachem, two amazingly talented recievers. But I will say this. If the Jaguars can open up the arial attack this year, the two backs become subject to a more refined criticism. Sure the Jaguars wont recreate what the saints currently have but I think its a safe bet to say at this moment, that if Leftwich can get the passing game off the ground, we wont be having this conversation. MJD is really in a prime spot to just explode. Its downright scary to think what he can be doing in a more potent and versatile offense.So this is my next post with a more consistent player of Marion Barber running the ball compared to LJ.Tell me why this isn't the same as MJD catches and Bush's.
Forgive me for being so blunt, but shouldnt this be obvious?
That aside, I really see no room for agreement here. Its hard to compare because of their respective situations; while Jacksonville was a run-first team and Drew is the epitome of tough, gritty running, he will have to put up with Taylor stealing a good chunk of carries and also will have to deal with a new OC who has repeatedly stated his interest in developing the downfield passing game via play-action. While this in theory should help Drew's stats, it still remains to see if the Jaguars have the skill players to pull this off. However, barring a major overhaul he will get a sizeable chunk of carries and fully expect him to replicate his success from last year.
Bush also is a very dynamic talent, but because of his abilities, using him as an every-down, between the tackles back doesnt play up to his skills and really isnt his forte. That is limiting him from a fantasy standpoint but he more than makes up for it by his spellbinding efforts to create, gain yards out of nowhere and knack to break a long one if defenses aren't careful. The Saints vertical attack is going to aid him through his tenure in New Orleans as defenses will be forced to stay honest and pin their ears back against Colston and Meachem, two amazingly talented recievers.
But I will say this. If the Jaguars can open up the arial attack this year, the two backs become subject to a more refined criticism. Sure the Jaguars wont recreate what the saints currently have but I think its a safe bet to say at this moment, that if Leftwich can get the passing game off the ground, we wont be having this conversation. MJD is really in a prime spot to just explode. Its downright scary to think what he can be doing in a more potent and versatile offense.
While I agree with the criteria you outlined above, I am hesitant to say that Greg Jones will be a force in this offense anymore. Sure he is a very talented back and has adequate ball skills but nowhere close to those that Drew possesses. Word from the Jaguars staff says that Jones is fully recovered and has bulked himself up- probably to take over the role primarily as a lead blocker. That said, I surely can see him getting touches in the red zone if they pull MJD to have a breather, but with a very good back between the 20's in Fred Taylor, I dont see tiredness being an issue for Jones-Drew. Del Rio has publicly stated that he wants players to be on the field as much as possible. Using Jones as anything other than a lead blocker would really be minimizing the effect of the Jaguar's rushing attack. And with him blocking, the possibilities for their continued success on the ground is really looking promising- especially from a dynasty standpoint.
Valid point, with the loss of KBrady there is a lot of speculation that the TE position will be much more of a recieving area than a blocking area as it was for most of the last 3 seasons. GJones is indeed going to be looked at as a FB, just my gut tells me that he will always be the first option for Del Rio when it's 3/4th and one/two and/or goal to go from inside the 5. Time will tell.As for him not being a lock to make the roster as some one else posted, yes he is, he is a mortal lock to make the roster.
Again, apples and oranges. I will explain this to you as well.Dont be caught up by the YPC. Dig a bit deeper into his splits. If so, you will see that Marion Barber has been utilized primarily as a situational back, gaining vitually all of his fantasy value in the red-zone. This should be very clear if you had watched any dallas football this season. However, he has barely had any work in the first half of games, leaving him fresh while the defensive front tires. Again, his effectiveness is clearly shown with his work on 2nd and 3rd downs where he puts up a nice YPC but also on 1st down where he sports a pretty hefty YPC. So how is he different/worse than LJ?So this is my next post with a more consistent player of Marion Barber running the ball compared to LJ.Tell me why this isn't the same as MJD catches and Bush's.You really missed the point here. What Fanatic is trying to say here is that statical quantity is the telling difference between a guy like alsott and MJD. For example, if by some stroke of luck I happen to be on the field for one play and happen to break a long run, it tells nothing about my actual ability. If I continued to do so over an extended period of time, then it may be telling that I do have ability. Comparing 2 catches to an entire season's worth of catches is akin to comparing apples and orange.
Forgive me for being so blunt, but shouldnt this be obvious?
That aside, I really see no room for agreement here. Its hard to compare because of their respective situations; while Jacksonville was a run-first team and Drew is the epitome of tough, gritty running, he will have to put up with Taylor stealing a good chunk of carries and also will have to deal with a new OC who has repeatedly stated his interest in developing the downfield passing game via play-action. While this in theory should help Drew's stats, it still remains to see if the Jaguars have the skill players to pull this off. However, barring a major overhaul he will get a sizeable chunk of carries and fully expect him to replicate his success from last year.
Bush also is a very dynamic talent, but because of his abilities, using him as an every-down, between the tackles back doesnt play up to his skills and really isnt his forte. That is limiting him from a fantasy standpoint but he more than makes up for it by his spellbinding efforts to create, gain yards out of nowhere and knack to break a long one if defenses aren't careful. The Saints vertical attack is going to aid him through his tenure in New Orleans as defenses will be forced to stay honest and pin their ears back against Colston and Meachem, two amazingly talented recievers.
But I will say this. If the Jaguars can open up the arial attack this year, the two backs become subject to a more refined criticism. Sure the Jaguars wont recreate what the saints currently have but I think its a safe bet to say at this moment, that if Leftwich can get the passing game off the ground, we wont be having this conversation. MJD is really in a prime spot to just explode. Its downright scary to think what he can be doing in a more potent and versatile offense.
So does rb's carries have this same rule of thumb? Is this like saying don't be impressed with LJ's big #'s last year cause he had more carries than let's say a guy like Marion Barber? Should you be more impressed with Marion Barber cause his ypc were higher? So are you telling me that Marion Barber is more talented at running than LJ? That is the same reasoning that you had with Bush's more reception attempts isn't it?
You might very well be right in the end. I guess Training Camp will tell all.Its really refreshing to see more Jaguars' fans, especially on this board. God knows we need more. While we might be a minority on this board, I must say that the majority ive encountered really know their stuff.
I can't believe I'm even posting here again. Tim, you will never get this. No matter how hard you try. This is not an debate it's remedial stats for you. We keep explaining it and you keep missing the point. Perfect use of this emoticon earlier:So this is my next post with a more consistent player of Marion Barber running the ball compared to LJ.Tell me why this isn't the same as MJD catches and Bush's.
Forgive me for being so blunt, but shouldnt this be obvious?
That aside, I really see no room for agreement here. Its hard to compare because of their respective situations; while Jacksonville was a run-first team and Drew is the epitome of tough, gritty running, he will have to put up with Taylor stealing a good chunk of carries and also will have to deal with a new OC who has repeatedly stated his interest in developing the downfield passing game via play-action. While this in theory should help Drew's stats, it still remains to see if the Jaguars have the skill players to pull this off. However, barring a major overhaul he will get a sizeable chunk of carries and fully expect him to replicate his success from last year.
Bush also is a very dynamic talent, but because of his abilities, using him as an every-down, between the tackles back doesnt play up to his skills and really isnt his forte. That is limiting him from a fantasy standpoint but he more than makes up for it by his spellbinding efforts to create, gain yards out of nowhere and knack to break a long one if defenses aren't careful. The Saints vertical attack is going to aid him through his tenure in New Orleans as defenses will be forced to stay honest and pin their ears back against Colston and Meachem, two amazingly talented recievers.
But I will say this. If the Jaguars can open up the arial attack this year, the two backs become subject to a more refined criticism. Sure the Jaguars wont recreate what the saints currently have but I think its a safe bet to say at this moment, that if Leftwich can get the passing game off the ground, we wont be having this conversation. MJD is really in a prime spot to just explode. Its downright scary to think what he can be doing in a more potent and versatile offense.
So does rb's carries have this same rule of thumb? Is this like saying don't be impressed with LJ's big #'s last year cause he had more carries than let's say a guy like Marion Barber? Should you be more impressed with Marion Barber cause his ypc were higher? So are you telling me that Marion Barber is more talented at running than LJ? That is the same reasoning that you had with Bush's more reception attempts isn't it?
There is a big difference between how many times a guy is handed the ball and how many times a guy is thrown to. The likelihood of dropping the ball on a handoff is very, very small and doesn't really reflect a RB's running ability. But, how many times a guy is targetted and what percentage he catches the ball is a big indicator of how good a receiver the guy is. The sheer number of times a guy catches the ball isn't a good indicator. If RBX has 50 receptions and RBY has 60 receptions, according to your logic, RBY is the better WR. But if RBX was only thrown to 55 times and RBY was thrown to 120 times then who is the better receiver? RBX had a 90+% catch rate while RBY had a 50% rate. The fact that this has to be explained to you is ridiculous and should be proof enough that you need to stop argueing about stats.Yea camp should give us some indications, some excerps from what was seen at passing camp, "At passing camp this week, I saw a lot of spread-type formations. I saw a lot of balls thrown in Lewis’, Wiggins’ and Greg Estandia’s directions. Wrighster, of course, is rehabbing from labrum surgery and is not participating in practice." This is from a local beat writter.I needed to find a new playground so I'l be posting a bit more here, nice to meet a fellow Jags fan.
This is weak to say the least.You're playing JAX. Watching film. Who are you game planning to stop? Gerrard? Leftwich? Matt Jones? Fragile Fred?Jurb, I respect your opinion and I think the numbers do show that MJD clearly had the better year and even a very slight edge in the 2nd half.That being said, I do think that it is possible that MJD "snuck" up on the league a little bit. Teams did not spend the hours dissecting his tendencies as of yet, but teams were clearly preparing for Bush. Now this does not mean that I think Bush is better, I am just stating that it would be unfair to say that teams were as worried about MJD as they were Bush even if the talent around Bush was better. Watching film, there were times Bush was doubled coming out of the backfield which is really rare.Yeah, OK let's do that. Only 2nd half stats:MJDDid you watch the Saints/Eagles in the playoffs. The Eagles were so scared of Reggie in the flats that the vaunted TE trio of Miller/Owens/Campbell combined for over 100 yards.You'd think people in the "shark pool" would watch more football.
| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 10 hou | 3 11 | 56 | 1 || 11 nyg | 9 45 | 16 | 1 || 12 buf | 8 78 | 47 | 1 || 13 mia | 5 46 | 0 | 1 || 14 ind | 15 166 | 15 | 2 || 15 ten | 25 98 | 47 | 1 || 16 nwe | 19 131 | 41 | 2 || 17 kan | 12 46 | 16 | 1 |Rushing: 96 carries, 621 yds, 6.47 avgReceiving: 25 rec, 238 yds, 9.52 avg
10 total TDs
107.4 total yds, 1.25 Tds per game
Bush
+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 10 pit | 10 49 | 40 | 1 || 11 cin | 13 51 | 58 | 0 || 12 atl | 5 24 | 21 | 0 || 13 sfo | 10 37 | 131 | 4 || 14 dal | 6 37 | 125 | 1 || 15 was | 7 14 | 19 | 0 || 16 nyg | 20 126 | 23 | 1 || 17 car | 3 20 | 13 | 1 | phi | 12 52 1 | 3 22 0 chi | 4 19 0 | 7 132 1Rushing: 90 carries, 429 yds, 4.77 avgReceiving: 52 rec, 584 yds, 11.2 avg
101.3 total yds, 0.90 Tds per game
Even your cherry picked stats show MJD as the better player. MJD scored more TDs in less games and on far less touches (I gave Bush the benefit of his 2 playoff games). Furthermore, MJD has better total yardage, the same yds per touch and a far better yds per carry.
For all the progress Bush made during the 2nd half of last season. He was in reality only shipping away at the iceberg that was catching up to MJD.
If you were a franchise (not fantasy) and the two players were there after watching them play, who would you take as your pick? I don't think the answer is clearly MJD. If I had to choose, I would probably take Bush (very close) even though it is clear that MJD was the better runner last year.
I guess I am saying is that it is pretty close and I like to watch how players do after they are the focus of a defense.
I'll do it at the end of the year and I'll enjoy it.We'll see how much better MJD is than Bush this year.This year try to watch both guys and have an opinion from what you've seen instead of what you see on paper.Done argueing, you just make sense to me. I will still go on record saying that if a guy is targeted more than his staff wants the ball in his hands which usually you would do for a more talented player. Respond if you want but I'm done argueing you. Some people always just think they are right.See ya
It's pretty clear you never watched Maurice in college. He did just that in college. But, this is not part of Jacksonville's offensive scheme.It's not that Maurice can't, but that Jacksonville won't put him out there.Is it fair to say one person might get more targets becasue they a regarded by thier staff as a better reciever? I promise you MJD wont ever ever line up at WR like Bush will and run crisp routes.The rest of your comments i agree on.Tim, I hate to do this to you but you are asking me to make a fool of you so I shall. The comment about comparable stats means that you can't just look at two numbers and assume one makes a player better than another. In this case total number of receptions can't be looked at in order to assume who has the better hands. Opportunity plays a big role. These numbers are for arguments sake, because I don't know the actual targets. For arguments sake, if Bush had 150 targets and caught 89 of them and MJD had 60 targets and caught 46 of them, which has the better hands? Which made the most of the opportunities given. We all know that Bush got a lot of opportunities to catch the ball. Did he make more of those opportunities than what MJD with his? I don't know. But if you simply look at the number of catches a guy has and assume he has better hands then you are very short sighted which is pretty much evident by this post which shows an utter lack of understanding of statistics. Sure you can't say that a guy that was targetted twice and caught both is better because the two catches doesn't have enough statistical weight to be calculated. It's called statistical power.....Oh, never mind....Might as well
Oh, and gotta love you comment that the stats we are comparing are from last year
I also loved how you wanted to take out MJD's long runs because they inflate his YPC
