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Who's the 2016 NFL MVP right now? (2 Viewers)

I would tend to think that playing lights out and winning when you HAVE to win is rather valuable. 
But what does struggling in the first half of the season say?  There are two sides to it and I don't think it's fair to just pick the one that supports one's opinion only.  He had a great final six games when it mattered by why wasn't he as good when the games didn't matter as much?

 
But what does struggling in the first half of the season say?  There are two sides to it and I don't think it's fair to just pick the one that supports one's opinion only.  He had a great final six games when it mattered by why wasn't he as good when the games didn't matter as much?
Took a while getting used to the worst RB situation in football?

 
I'm not looking to bury Rodgers, but if GB didn't start 4-6, they wouldn't have had to have all those elimination games. So losing increased his stock when he started winning? That seems odd. 
Odd indeed.  Yet sports are odd and the loses were on the team while the streak, well, that fell clearly on his shoulders, if one wants to believe.  Again, I am not going to pursue defending this narrative as it will appear I am pushing the narrative.  I think this year belongs to Ryan.  I simply wanted to see the argument made not from unusual combinations of stats in a forced manner but in a context explanation..

 
Took a while getting used to the worst RB situation in football?
Did they have the worst situation though?  I know it was bad but was it as bad as some make it to be.  I still don't understand why they didn't just stick with Montgomery earlier when it seemed the public new he was the best option.

 
Odd indeed.  Yet sports are odd and the loses were on the team while the streak, well, that fell clearly on his shoulders, if one wants to believe.  Again, I am not going to pursue defending this narrative as it will appear I am pushing the narrative.  I think this year belongs to Ryan.  I simply wanted to see the argument made not from unusual combinations of stats in a forced manner but in a context explanation..
That seems odd.  The 4-6 part of the season was the team's fault but the 6-0 part was all because of Rodgers?  I'm not sure it works that way.

 
Question: "You have Rogers, Ryan, Brady and Zeke in the race for the MVP.  But hypothetically speaking, lets say Rogers is tiny.  Tiny Rogers.  He's about 14" tall.  How do you think he would fare in the MVP race now?"

Answer: "LOL.  That's an easy one.  Tiny Rogers all the way! He could run under the legs of an entire D.  He might rush for 2500 yrds.  You can't overlook Tiny Rogers potential rushing stats in this scenario.  MVP...MVP"

Question: "Ok, another scenario.  Big game this weekend for the Packers against the Cowboys.  Let's say for some reason the plane is delayed and the Packers don't make it to the game.  Only Rogers shows up.  So it's Rogers against the Cowboys.  How do you think Rogers would fare?"

Answer:  "Are we talking Regular Rogers or Tiny Rogers?"

Question: "Regular Rogers"

Answer: "Ok Bro...I was worried you might say Tiny Rogers.  If it's regular Rogers all by himself against the Cowboys...I'm going to have to say Rogers wins this game in a close one...kicking a late field goal to win 17-14."

 
But what does struggling in the first half of the season say?  There are two sides to it and I don't think it's fair to just pick the one that supports one's opinion only.  He had a great final six games when it mattered by why wasn't he as good when the games didn't matter as much?
Takes a young team time to find their way?  Also, if Rodgers first half was as bad as is being sold by some his cumulative stats would be no were near as close to Ryan's as they are.   His play was not fairly analyzed.  Writers and Analysts wanted a hot takes for their own glorification and they pushed a narrative that was not necessarily reflective of play.  Small sample size variability joined with small minds, ambitious for attention.

 
That seems odd.  The 4-6 part of the season was the team's fault but the 6-0 part was all because of Rodgers?  I'm not sure it works that way.
It might when he played as well as he did in those 6 games. 

Aaron Rodgers says that he is sorry for not having the single greatest season in NFL history. 

 
Did they have the worst situation though?  I know it was bad but was it as bad as some make it to be.  I still don't understand why they didn't just stick with Montgomery earlier when it seemed the public new he was the best option.
Yes, it was. 

And how many situations do you think Montgomery would have done much from the RB position?  Only other one I can think of is with Brady.

 
Takes a young team time to find their way?  Also, if Rodgers first half was as bad as is being sold by some his cumulative stats would be no were near as close to Ryan's as they are.   His play was not fairly analyzed.  Writers and Analysts wanted a hot takes for their own glorification and they pushed a narrative that was not necessarily reflective of play.  Small sample size variability joined with small minds, ambitious for attention.
I'm not sure anyone is saying his first half of the season was bad, it just wasn't up to par with an MVP season or even a typical Rodgers season.  People were thinking something was off with him and the team those first 10 games.  He still put up good stats because he's a great QB but it didn't look like MVP type play.  His final 6 games were that of an MVP and that's why he's in the discussion.  The reason why many don't have him as the top MVP is because of those first 10 games though because they are looking at the total season and not just a section of the season.  This is how I am looking at it at least.

 
But Ryan did have one of the great seasons in NFL history, hence the award for MVP.
As I have said, I was never arguing against that.  I merely thought the devil's advocate position that some were espousing, and some apparently bought, was not being made as well as I thought it could be made.  Myself, I am swayed more or less by the position Anarchy 99 and others have taken. (Essentially your position). 

 
But Ryan did have one of the great seasons in NFL history, hence the award for MVP.
Statistcally.  Need to add that 

Brady and Rodgers played better and were more important to their teams. 

Ryan will win the MVP.  Good for him.  Voters pick the best stats.  I simply dont agree with doing that every year, this being one of them.  

 
And speaking of stats, there are many ways to view them.  28-2 is freaking ridiculous during an 11-1 stretch.  That means winning.  That means less late game stats because less late game stats were needed.  Hence, the total numbers will be down when that is the case. 

 
Statistcally.  Need to add that 

Brady and Rodgers played better and were more important to their teams. 

Ryan will win the MVP.  Good for him.  Voters pick the best stats.  I simply dont agree with doing that every year, this being one of them.  
This is not at all correct though.  We have no idea who is more important to their team because we didn't see them play without them.  The exception was Brady and we saw the Pats go 3-1 with a second and third string QB.  That tells me the Patriots are still good overall even without Brady.

 
And speaking of stats, there are many ways to view them.  28-2 is freaking ridiculous during an 11-1 stretch.  That means winning.  That means less late game stats because less late game stats were needed.  Hence, the total numbers will be down when that is the case. 
One could also look at that and see a very well coached team with a great game plan that doesn't need to throw all over the place and force throws than can lead to more TOs.  One may think that since the team as a whole is so good that the QB can be very conservative which means he doesn't put up huge numbers but also doesn't turn the ball over.  

It can be viewed a few different ways.

 
One could also look at that and see a very well coached team with a great game plan that doesn't need to throw all over the place and force throws than can lead to more TOs.  One may think that since the team as a whole is so good that the QB can be very conservative which means he doesn't put up huge numbers but also doesn't turn the ball over.  

It can be viewed a few different ways.
28-2.  Not 10-2.  Lol at conservative getting 28-2.  

Yes the Pats are better overall than Atl.  That is part of why Brady won as many games as Ryan did and did it in 4 less games.  

 
Let's just say Rodgers was lethal to start the season and GB won 6 or 7 in a row . . . and then they ended 4-6. Would people really be considering Rodgers a MVP candidate? I guess timing is everything. The narrative would change to how GB backed into the playoffs and what was wrong with Rodgers.

 
Let's just say Rodgers was lethal to start the season and GB won 6 or 7 in a row . . . and then they ended 4-6. Would people really be considering Rodgers a MVP candidate? I guess timing is everything. The narrative would change to how GB backed into the playoffs and what was wrong with Rodgers.
Well, it actually is more valuable to be playing great heading into the playoffs than it is to be playing great week 1.  So maybe.  

 
Julio isn clearly better than Nelson??????  I mean??????
Nelson has three seasons with 13+ TDs; Jones has never scored more than 10. They are equally productive per target in terms of yardage and Nelson produces many more TDs per target. 

Oh, and those two games Julio Jones missed this year? Where Mohammad freaking Sanu was Ryan's best receiver? He went 35/51 (68.6%) for 523 yards and five TDs. 

 
Also in the WILL THE HISTORICAL NUMBERS HOLD UP category . . .

Since the league went to the current configuration of 8 divisions in 2002, there were 13 teams that won their WC game by at least 20 points. The average score was 33-8 in those games. This year, there are two teams that won by 20+ in the WC round (GB +25, SEA +20).

The record in the following divisional round game for those teams was 4-9, with the average score dropping from 33-8 to 18-27. Of those 13 teams, the only one that went on to win a title was the Giants.

 
Let's just say Rodgers was lethal to start the season and GB won 6 or 7 in a row . . . and then they ended 4-6. Would people really be considering Rodgers a MVP candidate? I guess timing is everything. The narrative would change to how GB backed into the playoffs and what was wrong with Rodgers.
That is indeed the nature of narratives.  Still, I think narratives can be as enlightening as old fashioned, pre-analytic stats. The arguments may appear less objective since one cannot argue numbers on a page are not the number, though those of more subtle appreciation of the game will certainly concede that numbers do not tell the whole story, sports in general, and football is about more than the numbers.  Me, I fell in love with the narratives of the game, the stories, the voice of John Facenda, not with box scores from teams not necessarily similarly situated to each other.  In the end, however, I recognize there is a definition for the award, not written in ink, but written in custom, and that custom gives great deference and regard to outstanding statistical performance on teams with top records.

 
Forgot to mention that GB has now had only 1 turnover in their past 7 games. I can't say I have done a ton of research on how often that occurs, but I will guess "hardly ever" would not be that far off. The Packers are going to start turning the ball over more (that's just elementary statistics and probability). Whether that is their death knell who knows, but Rodgers will likely have to face more adversity that he already has (even with all the must win games), as teams don't keep extending 17-1 turnover ratios.

Also of note, AR is 4-4 on the road in the playoffs. In his last 5 playoff road games, his QB rating was 77.9, 93.5, 55.8, 91.5, and 55.4. I get that tons of people will say "but look at the hot streak he is on." Duly noted.

I'm not covering any new ground here, but it's tough to win on the road against playoff teams. Here are the career home/road splits against teams that made the playoffs for the 8 QBs left in the tournament. Oh, and by the way, the line to bash Matt Ryan forms to the right.

Brady:
Home 45-11 (.804)
Road 21-21 (.500)

Smith
Home 12-11 (.522)
Road 9-28 (.243)

Big Ben
Home 28-17 (.622)
Road 13-20 (.394)

Osweiler
Home 5-0 (1.000)
Road 0-4 (.000)

Prescott
Home 1-1 (.500)
Road 2-1 (.667)

Ryan
Home 10-15 (.400)
Road 9-20 (.310)

Wilson
Home 17-3 (.850)
Road 8-8 (.500)

Rodgers
Home 19-8 (.704)
Away 12-20 (.375)
 

 
CalBear said:
Nelson has three seasons with 13+ TDs; Jones has never scored more than 10. They are equally productive per target in terms of yardage and Nelson produces many more TDs per target. 

Oh, and those two games Julio Jones missed this year? Where Mohammad freaking Sanu was Ryan's best receiver? He went 35/51 (68.6%) for 523 yards and five TDs. 
Good thread for the following comment:

Rodgers>>>>>>>>>>>Ryan

 
FUBAR said:
It's not that different from 4th quarter comeback victories, except on a larger scale.  
Yeah I would agree.  But then you have to look at WHY the comebacks were necessary.  If a guy plays like garbage for 3 and a half quarters then pulls a Tebow-esque comeback, well, that isn't the same as a 42-40 comeback where a QB was playing very well before the comeback.   Also, a QB gets a comeback credited to them if a RB takes it 80 yards to the house for the win, or on a screen or whatever. 

Every part of all of this has to be looked at.  Way too many generalizations going on. 

My guess is the actual voters do not do their due diligence on all this.

 
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CalBear said:
1) We're talking about MVP for this year, not "who is the best QB". And all of those other factors were there last year, too. Except this year Julio got hurt. 

2) He made three Pro Bowls, finished in the top 10 in passing yardage six times, top 10 in TDs five times, and led the league in completion percentage in 2012. He's #3 in passing yardage since taking over the starting job in 2008 at age 23 (behind only Brees and Rivers). Devonta Freeman is nothing special as a RB, and his receivers outside of Julio are average at best. And Julio isn't clearly better than Jordy Nelson. 

Matt Ryan has been a very solid performer at QB for a long time, in the tier with Rivers and Roethlisberger. 
Yeah.  Solid.  Not special.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I feel some are really struggling with separating how good a player is and how great their career has been with how one player performed in just this one season.  This is about who had the best season and deserves this year's MVP.  It's not a popularity or talent contest.
I'm not struggling at all.  I'm suggesting that the Falcons weren't special this year due to Matt Ryan.  It was mostly due to other factors - like scheme, coaching, RB talent, etc.

 
I'm not struggling at all.  I'm suggesting that the Falcons weren't special this year due to Matt Ryan.  It was mostly due to other factors - like scheme, coaching, RB talent, etc.
So the Packers and Patriots were not successful due to other factors like scheme, coaching, RB talent, etc...

I think a pretty big part of the Patriot's success has to do with scheme and coaching.

I have a feeling the Packer's have a decent amount of success from their scheme and coaching as well.

Basically you're suggesting that the Falcons would be almost as good without Ryan, even though we have no way of knowing?

 
Here are a few opinions from some sports writers that think Ryan is the MVP.  I share the same opinions.  There were a couple writers that picked Rodgers, Brady and even Dak but their arguments were not all that strong.

Chris Burke (SI): Matt Ryan, Falcons. Having just witnessed in person Aaron Rodgers’ dismantling of the Lions’ secondary, it’s tough to venture off in another direction here. And yet, there is something to be said for what Ryan did all season long. Emphasis on "all season long." Rodgers had a little downturn earlier, and Tom Brady missed Weeks 1-4, while Ryan was en route to career numbers. He finished as the league leader in a ton of categories, including net yards per attempt, yards per completion and TD percentage. Atlanta had the most explosive offense in the game this season, and it’s because of how Ryan spread the ball around.

Cameron DaSilva (FOX Sports): Matt Ryan, Falcons. This year is unlike any other when it comes to MVP. Matt Ryan, Ezekiel Elliott, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are all deserving for one reason or another, but Ryan should win it. Consider this: Every quarterback in NFL history to average 300 passing yards and have a passer rating above 110 has won MVP or finished second to a QB who also did that. Ryan is the only player with those numbers this year.

Jonathan Jones (SI): Matt Ryan, Falcons. Atlanta’s quarterback came up just shy of 5,000 passing yards throwing to Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and six or seven other guys you’ve never heard of. Indeed, Ryan benefited from Kyle Shanahan and Alex Mack, but every MVP candidate has a significant crutch. Ryan was consistently great for 16 games—not Weeks 4-17 (cough, Brady), not the past six weeks (cough, Rodgers).

Peter Schrager (FOX Sports) Matt Ryan, Falcons. He was my MVP after four weeks, eight weeks, 12 weeks, and he had his best performances in Weeks 13-17. So, quit looking to find the MVP. He's made the case. All season long. Matt Ryan was the best player—and the most important to his team's success—in the NFL this season.

 
These debates are what happens when you try to assign an individual award to a team game. Opinions will certainly vary, but I don't think the voters have been that off base over the years. The point of the game is for your team to win, so winning should be a huge portion of the MVP recipe or DNA.

As for some of the things being bandied about, many of the supposed negatives that are being used to detract from some of the candidates have nothing at all to due with the candidates themselves.

For example, running game, defense, schedule, injuries, coaching, OL strength, play calling, system, scheme, etc. have NOTHING to do with the QB. Is it Tom Brady's fault his team allowed the fewest points this year? Isn't that what teams are supposed to try to do?

As has been said many times over in this thread, it's a team game. Some comments in here would suggest that candidates from (potentially) inferior teams should win the MVP seemingly every year and penalize the teams that have all the attributes I just listed. Sticking with the Brady theme, is it his fault BB is his head coach? Is that part of the new appendix to the voting . . . candidates cannot come from the team with the best coach.

I would also suggest that the offense's impact on the defense is greater than zero. Score a lot of points and the defense doesn't have to worry as much. Don't give a steady stream of giveaways to the opposition in your own red zone and your defense will give up fewer points. Hold on to the ball and play keep away, the defense gets more rest and has fewer plays to defend.

In this scenario, I think there are times where having a pass heavy team could actually hurt the defense. Throw three quick incompletions and your defense is right back on the field. A more balanced offense might help keep the offense on the field . . . but it could hurt the QB's passing totals by 1) losing out production to RB's, 2) running fewer plays by keeping the clock moving, and 3) give the impression that the QB wasn't doing much to win (see, Bell, Le'Veon as EXHIBIT A in the game against MIA where he literally had every yard in one of the Steelers' drives).

The players are locked into their teams and whatever good or bad that entails. Tom Brady has to play with mostly non-descript receivers with Gronk being hurt, but in return he gets the Pats defense and BB. Rodgers has to suffer from having no running game and no defense, so he in turn can benefit from having no running game and no defense. Ryan gets to benefit from playing 9 games in a dome and putting up video game scoring totals, but then has to take the crap people will fling at him because his team won easier than some of the others.

Rodgers can be lauded for winning 6 games in a row down the stretch. Roethlisberger was in a similar do or die situation for the most part, and the Steelers won 6 down the stretch to get in the playoffs. I guess Rodgers winning his 6 games by 11 points per game was that much more impressive than Big Ben only winning his 6 games by 10 ppg. And I guess Rodgers winning streak trumps Brady's 7 game streak to end the season with a 16 point margin of victory. I get it. Rodgers had more style points and Brady should be eliminated because he his TD to INT was only 16-1 down the stretch compared to Rodgers 15-0 TD to INT ratio over his last 6 games to get to the playoffs.

When the baseline or expected level of performance is set so high, doing great things becomes the norm. This was the 6th time Brady won his last 6 games like Rodgers did. One other time his TD to INT ratio in his final 6 games was 17-0, and clearly 17-0 in 2010 was better than 16-1 like it was this year.

Most years there will be a lot of players with hot streaks, teams that go on good runs to make the playoffs, RBs with crazy numbers (did anyone even bring up DJohnson's 15 games in a row with 100+ yfs?), or as Seinfeld would say unbelievable feats of strength. Not sure why Ryan beating the Rams and 49ers down the stretch by 4 TD in each game is a net negative (it's the system . . . it's the running game . . . it's Julio F'ing Jones, man!)  Yet Rodgers gets more props for beating the Bears by 3 points and only scoring 30. And the Falcons beat the Packers this year on top of it.

Six of the Packers 10 wins were one possession wins. Six of the Falcons wins were by 14 points or more. But that's just another example of why RODGERS is the one that's more valuable.

To bring things full circle, every year there will by segmented stats, opinions on talent of teammates, breakdowns of numbers to the nth degree to make a case to pimp up a guy. So many players can make a case for being MVP. IMO, that's why the voters look at wins as a barometer. It's hard to argue against which teams won more. It's right there in black and white.

 
Yeah, and applying a qualifier to one person on their candidacy and not on the others is, honestly, dumb.

Ryan benefited from good coaching and surrounding talent?

OK, did Zeke or Ryan or Rodgers?

Yes? Ummm, OK, then why is it valid?

If Brady is still in the discussion, despite the presence of BB, then why would Ryan get knocked down because of Kyle freaking Shanahan?  Come on now.

 
Basically you're suggesting that the Falcons would be almost as good without Ryan, even though we have no way of knowing?
Yep, that is basically what he is saying, seeing as how he has Ryan as just a shade behind a couple guys in the MOST VALUABLE PLAYER race. 

 
For example, running game, defense, schedule, injuries, coaching, OL strength, play calling, system, scheme, etc. have NOTHING to do with the QB. Is it Tom Brady's fault his team allowed the fewest points this year? Isn't that what teams are supposed to try to do?
I realize I am just picking out one sentence from a large post, but there is quite a bit here that is just wrong.  I would say it is safe to say a seasoned vet MVP caliber QB like these guys has a lot to do with the running game, play calling, system, and scheme. 

 
I realize I am just picking out one sentence from a large post, but there is quite a bit here that is just wrong.  I would say it is safe to say a seasoned vet MVP caliber QB like these guys has a lot to do with the running game, play calling, system, and scheme. 
I was referencing others in this thread that immediately picked apart reasons why someone should lose points in the MVP discussion. I have been pushing the narrative that you mentioned all along. IMO, a QB that audibles out of a pass to a run to extend a drive is helping his team more than the QB that might take a sack to get knocked out of FG range, throw an ill advised pass that could get picked off, or stop the clock and allow the opposition one more chance to score. I realize these are extreme examples, and they might only come into play a few times a year in terms of wins or losses. But they do. One bad decision can cost your team a game (a la Matt Ryan and the Eric Berry pick two to lose against Kansas City, going from winning to losing on an extra point).

 
Hawkeye21 said:
Did they have the worst situation though?  I know it was bad but was it as bad as some make it to be.  I still don't understand why they didn't just stick with Montgomery earlier when it seemed the public new he was the best option.
Sickle Cell issue

 
Yep, that is basically what he is saying, seeing as how he has Ryan as just a shade behind a couple guys in the MOST VALUABLE PLAYER race. 
No, not really.  Rather, it means the Falcons would suffer the loss of Ryan less than the Packers would suffer the loss of Rodgers.  Assuming a similar replacement QB.

 
No, not really.  Rather, it means the Falcons would suffer the loss of Ryan less than the Packers would suffer the loss of Rodgers.  Assuming a similar replacement QB.
I know, but he was saying that YOU were making it seem like Ryan is pretty much average and that the Falcons would be just fine without him.

That is obviously not the case. 

 
Good thread for the following comment:

Rodgers>>>>>>>>>>>Ryan
In his entire career, Julio Jones has led his own team outright in TDs only twice (2012 and 2015). This year, some guy named Taylor Gabriel, who was cut by Cleveland, had more TDs than Jones. 

Jones has never been a dominant scoring threat, and that's on Jones, not on Ryan. Atlanta has never been worse than #16 in offense since Ryan took over, and has been top 10 six times in 9 years. And somehow the reason Ryan had a historic season this year is that they, what, added Mohammad Sanu and Taylor Gabriel? Seriously, that's the argument you're making?

 
In his entire career, Julio Jones has led his own team outright in TDs only twice (2012 and 2015). This year, some guy named Taylor Gabriel, who was cut by Cleveland, had more TDs than Jones. 

Jones has never been a dominant scoring threat, and that's on Jones, not on Ryan. Atlanta has never been worse than #16 in offense since Ryan took over, and has been top 10 six times in 9 years. And somehow the reason Ryan had a historic season this year is that they, what, added Mohammad Sanu and Taylor Gabriel? Seriously, that's the argument you're making?
Rodgers is a better QB than Ryan, and that is what has allowed Jordy Nelson to rival Julio in the statistical department.  Julio is a better WR than Nelson.

That is the argument I am making.  

 
Yeah.  Solid.  Not special.
Until this year. This year, he was special. Certainly if Rivers or Roethlisberger had a season like this one they'd be MVP candidates, especially if the two other best candidates had a slow start and poorer stats (Rodgers) or were suspended for four games (Brady). 

Rivers' best season was 2009, when he led the league in yards/attempt and took San Diego to 13-3 and probably should have gotten more consideration for MVP (he finished third to Manning and Brees, who both had seasons without question marks). Roethlisberger's never had a season near as good as Ryan's 2016, but he probably should have gotten more love for his 2014 season where he led the league in passing yardage, though the Steelers were only 11-5 to the Packers', Cowboys and Patriots 12-4 (Rodgers won). 

 
Rodgers is a better QB than Ryan, and that is what has allowed Jordy Nelson to rival Julio in the statistical department.  Julio is a better WR than Nelson.

That is the argument I am making.  
If Julio were a better WR than Nelson, he'd also be a better WR than Taylor Gabriel, who scored as many TDs as him this year. He has not been a dominant scorer relative to other receivers on his own team.

 
If Julio were a better WR than Nelson, he'd also be a better WR than Taylor Gabriel, who scored as many TDs as him this year. He has not been a dominant scorer relative to other receivers on his own team.
So gabriel is better than Julio? 

WTF kinda wacked out argument did i get myself into here.

 
If Julio were a better WR than Nelson, he'd also be a better WR than Taylor Gabriel, who scored as many TDs as him this year. He has not been a dominant scorer relative to other receivers on his own team.
You're right that he doesn't score many TDs.  But when over the past 4 years,  Jullio had averaged 109 yards receiving per game - 12 more than Antonio Brown, 25 yards more than Nelson's best 4 years (removing Nelson's down 2012 but including his 2011). maybe there's more to "how good this wr is" than scoring TDs.  

Is ted ginn a better player than Greg Olsen?

 

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