Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Why do people like Moreno (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
- Start date
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
See Forte, Matt.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Seems like that happens all the time, one or two per season.Anyway, with Moreno its the usual lure of what might be potential any rookie offers. Combine that with the fact that he doesn't have world beaters competing with him at the spot, the coach is embattled and Moreno is his 1st 1st round pick, the QBs they have aren't so hot and the kid should get plenty of opportunity. He has talent, the only question is whether he can stay healthy. It's a good play in round 5 if you haven't locked up your 2 starters with solid guys.
Last edited by a moderator:
Buffaloes
Footballguy
3 carries, 18 yards. Showed decent burst but definitely not enough of a sample size to say anything either way.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
More like once in a while...last year was an exception with Slaton, Forte, Johnson.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
What about Smith?Lynch and Peterson in 2007?Only year in recent memory a rookie didn't put up enough to be a viable FF starter is probably 2003.More like once in a while...last year was an exception with Slaton, Forte, Johnson.Seems like that happens all the time, one or two per season.
Last edited by a moderator:
War Eagle
Footballguy
Because the dude has mad skills and there's always one rookie who comes out and rocks! Out of the group of backs this year A. he is in a situation to easily get the #1 spot B. the Denver O-Line is good
All he needs is to stay healthy and get a chance.
That's why.
Mad P-O-T-E-N-T-I-A-L!
All he needs is to stay healthy and get a chance.
That's why.
Mad P-O-T-E-N-T-I-A-L!
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Definitely, but other years have produced none...actually last year was a huge exception to the rule.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Clearly this is the argument.Are you high on the Denver offense?
bengalbuck
Footballguy
What year was there no impact rookie RB? I don't recall that ever happening.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
2006: Bush, Maroney, Addai, MJD2005: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac2004: Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones, Juluis Jones2003: total whiff2002: Portis2001: LaDainian, Anthony Thomas, Travis Henry2000: Jamal Lewis
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I would argue against several of those being worthy of a #55 ADP.Wouldn't you?
Buffaloes
Footballguy
Yeah, still not understanding this one....
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Sure for a couple, but over half those guys were legitimate RB2 or RB1s those years. Spending a 5th round pick for a viable RB2 possible RB1? Sounds fair to me.I would argue against several of those being worthy of a #55 ADP.Wouldn't you?
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Reports out of camp haven't been of the "this guy is amazing" effect. Granted, I'm not at camp, but form most accounts I've read he's been decent but not great.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I'm certainly high on the Denver OL, one of the best in the league. He'll be successful.
Really? I just looked at my leagues stats, and for at least the past 3-4 years there is always 2 or more rookies that have good impact...last year there were 4 in the top 25.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Okay so let's take away three from that list...now you're down to 11 in the last 7 years that made a fantasy impact. Throw in the fact that the Denver offense is in a tailspin and he's been injured...the risks start to add up.If I had heard Chris Johnson-like reports of "oh my gosh this guy is going to be amazing" coming out of Denver that would be one thing, but the fact that I haven't coupled with the obvious risks associated with a rookie runner flag him as a low ceiling and low floor type of player for me. At pick 55 there's a lot better IMHO.Sure for a couple, but over half those guys were legitimate RB2 or RB1s those years. Spending a 5th round pick for a viable RB2 possible RB1? Sounds fair to me.I would argue against several of those being worthy of a #55 ADP.Wouldn't you?2006: Bush, Maroney, Addai, MJD
2005: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac
2004: Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones, Juluis Jones
2003: total whiff
2002: Portis
2001: LaDainian, Anthony Thomas, Travis Henry
2000: Jamal Lewis
Last edited by a moderator:
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
2003: Domanick Davis (RB14)2002: William Green (RB27)
2005: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac
2004: Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones, Juluis Jones
2003: total whiff
2002: Portis
2001: LaDainian, Anthony Thomas, Travis Henry
2000: Jamal Lewis
2001: Michael Bennett (RB29)
2001: Kevan Barlow (RB30)
2000: Ron Dayne (RB29)
Last edited by a moderator:
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Exactly, there are none. Are McDaniels and the player just being super secretive about how great he is?
Buffaloes
Footballguy
FWIW, I think the Broncos offense will move the ball. They have a top OL and have shown the ability to move the ball in preseason despite missing Moreno. Here is what I posted on Moreno in another thread. **I do not have him in any leagues**
I would have no problem taking him as a #2 RB right now after loading up on a couple WRs. Buckhalter and Hillis are going to get carries too but after 3 preseason (yes, I know preseason) games, the Bronco offense has showed it will throw to its backs early and often. Kyle Orton has a history of checking down to his RBs too. Hillis will probably get a good chunk of GL carries but Buckhalter has looked like a decent change of pace guy at best so far. Combine this with the fact Moreno was drafted at 12 and I think Moreno becomes the starter sooner than later. I seem to remember McDaniels mentioning that Moreno fits the mold of a 3 down back (running, blocking receiving) as well. His sample size thus far is extremely small (3 carries) but he easily looked like he had the most burst out of the Denver backs on those plays. Take this info with as much salt as you'd like but I think he is going to help a lot of teams this fall.
I would have no problem taking him as a #2 RB right now after loading up on a couple WRs. Buckhalter and Hillis are going to get carries too but after 3 preseason (yes, I know preseason) games, the Bronco offense has showed it will throw to its backs early and often. Kyle Orton has a history of checking down to his RBs too. Hillis will probably get a good chunk of GL carries but Buckhalter has looked like a decent change of pace guy at best so far. Combine this with the fact Moreno was drafted at 12 and I think Moreno becomes the starter sooner than later. I seem to remember McDaniels mentioning that Moreno fits the mold of a 3 down back (running, blocking receiving) as well. His sample size thus far is extremely small (3 carries) but he easily looked like he had the most burst out of the Denver backs on those plays. Take this info with as much salt as you'd like but I think he is going to help a lot of teams this fall.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
ADP #55 is the key here...2003: Domanick Davis (RB14)2002: William Green (RB27)
2005: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac
2004: Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones, Juluis Jones
2003: total whiff
2002: Portis
2001: LaDainian, Anthony Thomas, Travis Henry
2000: Jamal Lewis
2000: Ron Dayne (RB29)
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I like this post...okay, fair argument that Denver will be better than they have in the preseason...I don't totally agree, but it's a solid argument.Also a good argument about Orton checking down a lot.Good Post.
Mediocre? He had runs of 9, 5, and 4 yards, and reportedly looked very quick in doing so. How is that mediocre? Unproven, certainly, but not medicore in his only three carries of preseason.Rookie RBs that make an impact in FF seem to happen almost every year. Barry Sanders (1989), Emmitt Smith (1990), Jerome Bettis (1993), Marshall Faulk (1994), Curtis Martin (1995), Terrell Davis (1995), Eddie George (1996), Warrick Dunn (1997), Corey Dillon (1997), Fred Taylor (1998), Edgerrin James (1999), Ricky Williams (1999), Jamal Lewis (2000), LaDainian Tomlinson (2001), Clinton Portis (2002), Kevin Jones (2004), Julius Jones (2004), Ronnie Brown (2005), Cadillac Williams (2005), Reggie Bush (2006), Joseph Addai (2006), Maurice Drew (2006), Adrian Peterson (2007), Marshawn Lynch (2007), Jonathan Stewart (2008), Matt Forte (2008), Chris Johnson (2008), Steve Slaton (2008), and Kevin Smith (2008) all made an impact in FF as rookies.
Papa Schnay
Footballguy
LHUCKS, It's almost like he's held out or been injured all this time! LOL
At 55 overall, it's not worth the risk. I'd say in a dynasty format this guy's solid but not this year. He needs time to
1) Learn the playbook
2) Get in shape
3) Recover all the way from his knee injury
4) Build rapport
5) Gain the trust of his coaches
6) Denver to figure out what they're doing at QB
Once all 6 happen, they should be good to go...but I'd say that takes until next year.
I still think he's an 1000+ yard (combined) guy this season with all the turmoil and extra carries being stolen though
At 55 overall, it's not worth the risk. I'd say in a dynasty format this guy's solid but not this year. He needs time to
1) Learn the playbook
2) Get in shape
3) Recover all the way from his knee injury
4) Build rapport
5) Gain the trust of his coaches
6) Denver to figure out what they're doing at QB
Once all 6 happen, they should be good to go...but I'd say that takes until next year.
I still think he's an 1000+ yard (combined) guy this season with all the turmoil and extra carries being stolen though
Last edited by a moderator:
Mr. Anonymous
Footballguy
A number of posters here are in keeper leagues (though they don't preface everything they post with that) and that influences the interest in and draft position of players like Moreno. Moreno went in the middle of the fourth round in my keeper league which was two rounds before he "should" have gone based on what he'll probably do this year.
We can only keep one player a year and therefore Moreno is an iffy keeper prospect (will he be worth a 1st round pick for the 2010 season?) If it was dynasty, he'd be worth even more.
I mildly considered drafting Moreno in the 4th but he got grabbed before I had to make the decision. Also, I was loaded at RB at that point and was glad not to be tempted into a drafting mistake. But I was secretly bummed he went before I had that shot at him.
We can only keep one player a year and therefore Moreno is an iffy keeper prospect (will he be worth a 1st round pick for the 2010 season?) If it was dynasty, he'd be worth even more.
I mildly considered drafting Moreno in the 4th but he got grabbed before I had to make the decision. Also, I was loaded at RB at that point and was glad not to be tempted into a drafting mistake. But I was secretly bummed he went before I had that shot at him.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Right...that's what kills him in my ranking methodology...which heavily favors upside players...I just don't see the risk/reward argument for an ADP of #55.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Can we like Moreno regardless of his ADP?????
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
RB14 is ~ADP 27RB27 is ~ADP 60ADP #55 is the key here...2003: Domanick Davis (RB14)2002: William Green (RB27)2006: Bush, Maroney, Addai, MJD
2005: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac
2004: Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones, Juluis Jones
2003: total whiff
2002: Portis
2001: LaDainian, Anthony Thomas, Travis Henry
2000: Jamal Lewis
2000: Ron Dayne (RB29)
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Here are the RBs typically in the 5th round range given the latest ADPs
arren McFaddenJoseph AddaiThomas JonesKnowshon MorenoDerrick WardLarry JohnsonI'm having a hard time seeing which of these guys has more upside and less risk than Moreno here.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Not really.ADP #55 is the key here...2003: Domanick Davis (RB14)2002: William Green (RB27)
2005: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac
2004: Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones, Juluis Jones
2003: total whiff
2002: Portis
2001: LaDainian, Anthony Thomas, Travis Henry
2000: Jamal Lewis
2000: Ron Dayne (RB29)
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
WFT? If there are none, how are you reading that he's "decent but not great"?And, yes, McDaniels is being super secretive because that's his M.O.Your original point -- that he looks poor in preseason action -- is preposterous. He's had all of three carries and showed a very impressive burst on those carries.Exactly, there are none. Are McDaniels and the player just being super secretive about how great he is?
We have a winnner!Here are the RBs typically in the 5th round range given the latest ADPs
LHUCKS
Footballguy
...and the players, rest of the staff? Nobody has said anything really...
"preseason action" includes training camp.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Now we're getting to the real discussion, in non-ppr I like all of those players sans Jones and Ward more than Moreno.We have a winnner!Here are the RBs typically in the 5th round range given the latest ADPs
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Why? Addai's in a time share and probably gets less goal line. McFadden is on as bad a team as Moreno and has stiffer competition for carries than Moreno. Larry Johnson's line isn't good as Moreno's, though the skill players are nominally better, and he's on the wrong side of 30.Now we're getting to the real discussion, in non-ppr I like all of those players sans Jones and Ward more than Moreno.We have a winnner!Here are the RBs typically in the 5th round range given the latest ADPs
Buffaloes
Footballguy
FWIW, There has not been much chatter about any players, goood or bad in the MSM for Denver this year. Moreno missed most of camp and then was injured early in the 1st preseason game. Camp reports on the orangemane fan website have said that Moreno looks the part. However, those camp reports are few since Moreno missed a good part of camp due to a hold out and missed a better part due to injury. I wouldn't take the lack of chatter about Moreno as either good or bad since the sample size is small. I definitely wouldn't hold it against him. To me, that's the biggest issue. There is not much to go off of with Moreno. He has been limited in camp and has only 3 carries in preseason. It's going to be a bit of a risk at his ADP, but who in that range isn't a risk? Going off his college pedigree, the fact he was drafted so high when the team had other pressing issues, and knowing that the Bronco system will use its backs as receivers quite often lead me to believe the risk is minimal when you consider who else (RB) is being taken in that range.
War Eagle
Footballguy
No, but I'm not high on Detroits either and CJ is a fantasy stud.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Fair enough, sounds like we disagree on his upside and to some extent his risk. What do you see as his ceiling?
Wow... couldn't possibly be further from the truth.2008- Forte (4th), Slaton (6th), CJ (11th), Kevin Smith (18th)2007- Adrian Peterson (3rd), Marshawn Lynch (12th)2006- MJD (8th), Addai (11th), Bush (17th)2005- Caddy (19th)2004- Willis McGahee (9th), Kevin Jones (21st)2003- Dom Williams (nee Davis) (14th)2002- Clinton Portis (4th), Marcel Shipp (21st)2001- Tomlinson (7th), Rhodes (11th), A-Train (13th)2000- Mike Anderson (4th), Jamal Lewis (16th)1999- Edgerrin James (1st), Olandis Gary (14th)You ready to cry uncle yet, or you want me to keep going? That's 22 top-24 fantasy RBs in 10 years, for an average of 2.2 per season, including 13 top-12 (i.e. fantasy RB1s) and another three that checked in at 13th or 14th. Take special note of the fact that 3 of those top-24 finishes (and two of the top-5 finishes) came from previous Denver RBs.I would be THRILLED to get a legit RB2 (i.e. top-24 RB) with the #55 overall pick.Seriously, LHUCKS, you could not POSSIBLY be any further from the truth on this one.LHUCKS said:More like once in a while...last year was an exception with Slaton, Forte, Johnson.Gr00vus said:LHUCKS said:
LHUCKS
Footballguy
we already looked at this earlier in the thread...there were about 11 RBs in the last 7 years. I don't think that number supports an ADP of #55 IMHO.
Cool. You've pulled this "11 RBs in 7 years" number out of thin air and are tossing it around like it's a fact. I've provided concrete examples and year-end rankings of TWENTY TWO RBs who have finished as top-24 fantasy backs in the last 10 years. Forgive me if I'd rather stick to that whole "twenty two in 10 years" bit (you know, the one that's backed up with actual tangible data).
Moreno. That Denver O-line is sick, and I think McDaniels is going to have something to prove after drafting him so highly.
Incogneto
Footballguy
How can you possibly say that his ceiling is no more than ADP#55? We haven't even seen what he is capable of in the NFL, behind one of the best lines in the league.
The fact is that the backfield there is not as crowded as we really think. Jordan will not be on the roster, and Buckhalter will be a 3rd down back. We are left with Hillis being the backup.
I see Moreno (barring injury) to have 280 carries for 1250 yds, 40 catches for 300 yds receiving, 10 tds combined. that would be his ceiling, and make him a top 10 back
The fact is that the backfield there is not as crowded as we really think. Jordan will not be on the roster, and Buckhalter will be a 3rd down back. We are left with Hillis being the backup.
I see Moreno (barring injury) to have 280 carries for 1250 yds, 40 catches for 300 yds receiving, 10 tds combined. that would be his ceiling, and make him a top 10 back
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I didn't say that.I said his ceiling isn't high enough to justify pick #55.
