Why is Chris Johnson the consensus #1? (1 Viewer)

[sgtrobo]

1973 O.J. Simpson - 2003 yards rushing, 12 TDs (RB1)

1974 O.J. Simpson - 1125 yards rushing, 3 TDs (RB10)

1984 Eric Dickerson - 2105 yards rushing, 14 TDs (RB2 - James Wilder had almost 700 yards receiving)

1985 Eric Dickerson - 1234 yards rushing, 12 TDs (RB11)

1997 Barry Sanders - 2053 yards rushing, 11 TDs (RB1)

1998 Barry Sanders - 1491 yards rushing, 4 TDs (RB10)

1998 Terrell Davis - 2008 yards rushing, 21 TDs (RB1)

1999 Terrell Davis - 211 yards rushing, 2 TDs (RB77)

2003 Jamal Lewis - 2066 yards rushing, 14 TDs (RB4)

2004 Jamal Lewis - 1006 yards rushing, 7 TDs (RB25)

no 2000-yard rusher in history ever followed up with a season better than 10th place.

I get it that he's talented. So were the rest. I get that his line is dominant. The others had dominant lines also (well, not so much Barry). I get that he may not get injured, but Barry and OJ didn't miss any games, Dickerson missed 2 and Lewis missed 4. Obviously TD broke, but still, history repeats itself

EVERYONE who follows NFL history knew that Brady wasn't going to repeat his 2007 season (injury notwithstanding) just as everyone who had a clue knew that Peyton wouldn't match 2004.

Steve Slaton and Jamal Charles are "way too small to carry a full season's load", right? He's the same size as Slaton and Charles. Chris Johnson had 358 rushes and 50 receptions. I don't believe in that whole myth of the 370 or anything, but 408 touches is quite a bit.

So why is Chris Johnson considered the consensus #1 when history has taught us that it simply won't happen again? Sorry if this is a repeat thread, I'm sure someone has discussed this elsewhere and I just missed it.

 

[joffer]

who should be #1?

 

[Bhdevault]

AP

 

[zed2283]

I've got Peterson #1.

 

[aesclepius]

Of course, LaDainian Tomlinson followed up his 2,162 total yards performance with 2,360 the next year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

true while he might not have 2000k again. LT was the consesus #1 FFL pick for seasons upon seasons (well like 4)

To me you not only want a safe pick as #1 you want the guy with the highest ceiling as well. CJ2k has that

 

[Rick James]

I do think it's strange that no one mentions the "curse of 370" when talking about CJ24, but last year people wouldn't shut up about it when talking about Michael Turner.

 

[aesclepius]

Edgerrin James followed up his 2,139 total yards performance with 2,303 the next year.

 

[Jerry Lawler]

If your point is that the top pick is usually outperformed by someone from the field of other RB's, I agree. Chris Johnson likely won't be RB1. However, when you pick first, you don't have the option to select "whoever does best out of the players not named Chris Johnson." You have to place your bet on one guy. Personally, I would take Peterson, but I think Chris Johnson is an excellent first pick too.

If you're arguing that you should always avoid a 2K yard rusher, that's a different discussion.

 

[Jeremy]

Of course, LaDainian Tomlinson followed up his 2,162 total yards performance with 2,360 the next year.

And Marshall Faulk did it 4 years in a row. Tiki Barber did it the last 3 years of his career. Maybe not all rushing, but it certainly wouldn't be the first time in NFL history that a young RB had back to back monster seasons.

 

[ImTheScientist]

If someone told me the RB I pick in the first round would finish top 10 I would take it.

 

[Banger]

chances are he won't run for 2,000 yards again but you don't need a stat degree to figure that out. Not picking a player this year because of a bunch of completely different and unrelated players is pretty bad logic. What those players did or didn't do has absolutely ZERO bearing on what CJ will do this year. You have to evaluate his situation based on his current situation....

Is the QB, offensive scheme and line the same? yes

does he have a threat pushing him for carries or is his role expected to change? no

Is he injured or holding out? no

CJ CRUSHED all RBs last year...he could have a 17% reduction in pts and still have been the #1 back. A 22% reduction he would be the #2 back, a 28% reduction and he'd be the #3 back, nearly a 34% reduction and he'd be the #4 back? He absolutely crushed everyone last year. Even if his numbers drop 20%-30% he's still a lock for the top 5.

 

[Jayrod]

1973 O.J. Simpson - 2003 yards rushing, 12 TDs (RB1)1974 O.J. Simpson - 1125 yards rushing, 3 TDs (RB10)1984 Eric Dickerson - 2105 yards rushing, 14 TDs (RB2 - James Wilder had almost 700 yards receiving)1985 Eric Dickerson - 1234 yards rushing, 12 TDs (RB11)1997 Barry Sanders - 2053 yards rushing, 11 TDs (RB1)1998 Barry Sanders - 1491 yards rushing, 4 TDs (RB10)1998 Terrell Davis - 2008 yards rushing, 21 TDs (RB1)1999 Terrell Davis - 211 yards rushing, 2 TDs (RB77)2003 Jamal Lewis - 2066 yards rushing, 14 TDs (RB4)2004 Jamal Lewis - 1006 yards rushing, 7 TDs (RB25)no 2000-yard rusher in history ever followed up with a season better than 10th place.I get it that he's talented. So were the rest. I get that his line is dominant. The others had dominant lines also (well, not so much Barry). I get that he may not get injured, but Barry and OJ didn't miss any games, Dickerson missed 2 and Lewis missed 4. Obviously TD broke, but still, history repeats itselfEVERYONE who follows NFL history knew that Brady wasn't going to repeat his 2007 season (injury notwithstanding) just as everyone who had a clue knew that Peyton wouldn't match 2004.Steve Slaton and Jamal Charles are "way too small to carry a full season's load", right? He's the same size as Slaton and Charles. Chris Johnson had 358 rushes and 50 receptions. I don't believe in that whole myth of the 370 or anything, but 408 touches is quite a bit.So why is Chris Johnson considered the consensus #1 when history has taught us that it simply won't happen again? Sorry if this is a repeat thread, I'm sure someone has discussed this elsewhere and I just missed it.

You're in the 2 slot, huh?

 

[fightingillini]

no 2000-yard rusher in history ever followed up with a season better than 10th place.I get it that he's talented. So were the rest. I get that his line is dominant. The others had dominant lines also (well, not so much Barry). I get that he may not get injured, but Barry and OJ didn't miss any games, Dickerson missed 2 and Lewis missed 4. Obviously TD broke, but still, history repeats itselfEVERYONE who follows NFL history knew that Brady wasn't going to repeat his 2007 season (injury notwithstanding) just as everyone who had a clue knew that Peyton wouldn't match 2004.Steve Slaton and Jamal Charles are "way too small to carry a full season's load", right? He's the same size as Slaton and Charles. Chris Johnson had 358 rushes and 50 receptions. I don't believe in that whole myth of the 370 or anything, but 408 touches is quite a bit.So why is Chris Johnson considered the consensus #1 when history has taught us that it simply won't happen again? Sorry if this is a repeat thread, I'm sure someone has discussed this elsewhere and I just missed it.

Look, he doesn't need to rush for 2000+ to be the #1 FF RB. But I do think CJ has a great chance at 2000 all purpose yards again. I have him projected for 1500 yards rushing and 450 yards receiving......along with 14 TDs. I have him slotted with 350 touches total......300 carries and 50 receptions. Yes I agree that his touches are going to go down and I have him with 58 less than last year. But CJ is a lock to get 20-25 touches a game. TEN would be nuts not to get the best player on their team and maybe the best RB in the NFL the ball......A LOT. The guy can take it to the house on virtually any play.....I wouldn't bet against him.Could Peterson end up the #1 FF RB? Yes. Can MJD? Yes. Can Ray Rice? Yes if McGahee isn't a big TD vulture. When picking #1 overall, you want a player that is going to be an elite talent and finish in the top 4 or 5 most valuable players. CJ, if healthy, is a virtual lock at that IMO.

 

[PahtyTom]

I do think it's strange that no one mentions the "curse of 370" when talking about CJ24, but last year people wouldn't shut up about it when talking about Michael Turner.

lol maybe because it doesn't apply since he didn't have 370 carries?

 

[Resident A]

I'm not buying Light Blue Jesus this year. Yes, he had a phenomenal 2009. The problem is that my leagues use 2010 stats for scoring this year. I draft players based on how I think they'll do this year.

If you're in a league that uses last year's numbers for scoring, then LBJ is easily #1.

 

[Go deep]

Because history has absolutely nothing to do with what Chris Johnson will do this year.

 

[Go deep]

I'm not buying Light Blue Jesus this year. Yes, he had a phenomenal 2009. The problem is that my leagues use 2010 stats for scoring this year. I draft players based on how I think they'll do this year.If you're in a league that uses last year's numbers for scoring, then LBJ is easily #1.

How do you think CJ will do in 2010, and what are you basing it on?

 

[[icon]]

I'm not buying Light Blue Jesus this year. Yes, he had a phenomenal 2009. The problem is that my leagues use 2010 stats for scoring this year. I draft players based on how I think they'll do this year.If you're in a league that uses last year's numbers for scoring, then LBJ is easily #1.

How do you think CJ will do in 2010, and what are you basing it on?

These sort of questions always get answered with sound rationale. I do always find these sorts of threads amusing. [iNSERT PLAYER HERE] WILL NOT ACCOMPLISH [iNSERT AMAZING FEAT HERE] AGAIN THIS YEAR!!!1!There's a limb somewhere out there but you're noway near being on it. HOw about you provide some actual analysis on what player makes a better choice toward achieving that goal.

 

[joffer]

I'm not buying Light Blue Jesus this year. Yes, he had a phenomenal 2009. The problem is that my leagues use 2010 stats for scoring this year. I draft players based on how I think they'll do this year.If you're in a league that uses last year's numbers for scoring, then LBJ is easily #1.

incite like this is why this board is so great

 

[Resident A]

I'm not buying Light Blue Jesus this year. Yes, he had a phenomenal 2009. The problem is that my leagues use 2010 stats for scoring this year. I draft players based on how I think they'll do this year.If you're in a league that uses last year's numbers for scoring, then LBJ is easily #1.

How do you think CJ will do in 2010, and what are you basing it on?

If healthy, I predict CJ will be around RB8. I just see no way he repeats last year. I come up with my own rankings regardless of the consensus. Too many sheeple out there buy in.

 

[[icon]]

I'm not buying Light Blue Jesus this year. Yes, he had a phenomenal 2009. The problem is that my leagues use 2010 stats for scoring this year. I draft players based on how I think they'll do this year.If you're in a league that uses last year's numbers for scoring, then LBJ is easily #1.

How do you think CJ will do in 2010, and what are you basing it on?

If healthy, I predict CJ will be around RB8. I just see no way he repeats last year. I come up with my own rankings regardless of the consensus. Too many sheeple out there buy in.

What are your projections for CJ3 (touches/yards/td - rec/yards/tds)?What 7 RBs do you have in front of him (and their projections if you're that confident in them)?My projection is that you don't answer those two questions

 

[Da Guru]

I think Johnson dodged the injury bullet last season. I probably would take CJ at #1, but am very happy that I don`t have the #1 pick.

 

[Rick James]

I do think it's strange that no one mentions the "curse of 370" when talking about CJ24, but last year people wouldn't shut up about it when talking about Michael Turner.

lol maybe because it doesn't apply since he didn't have 370 carries?

lol, so there's a difference between 370 and 358+50 receptions? really?

 

[fightingillini]

I'm not buying Light Blue Jesus this year. Yes, he had a phenomenal 2009. The problem is that my leagues use 2010 stats for scoring this year. I draft players based on how I think they'll do this year.If you're in a league that uses last year's numbers for scoring, then LBJ is easily #1.

How do you think CJ will do in 2010, and what are you basing it on?

If healthy, I predict CJ will be around RB8. I just see no way he repeats last year. I come up with my own rankings regardless of the consensus. Too many sheeple out there buy in.

So what do you expect to happen? That CJ gets 100+ less touches? That is YPC drop to 4.2? That he scores 6 less TDs? Last year, RB8 was Ryan Grant. He had 282 carries, 25 receptions, 1450 all purpose yards, and 11 TDs. Say that's the RB8 benchmark. Is your projection of CJ only about 1500 all purpose yards and 11 TDs?

 

[ericttspikes]

I'm not buying Light Blue Jesus this year. Yes, he had a phenomenal 2009. The problem is that my leagues use 2010 stats for scoring this year. I draft players based on how I think they'll do this year.If you're in a league that uses last year's numbers for scoring, then LBJ is easily #1.

How do you think CJ will do in 2010, and what are you basing it on?

If healthy, I predict CJ will be around RB8. I just see no way he repeats last year. I come up with my own rankings regardless of the consensus. Too many sheeple out there buy in.

Wow, gutsy call there. I like predictions that go against the grain, but that doesn't pass the eyeball test.What do you predict that will happen this year to make such a drop? I can see him perhaps not breaking as many long TD runs. But, as others have mentioned the dude crushed in most scoring systems and has little competition for carries. In one league I was in he almost doubled MJDs points, who was the #2 scoring RB. He did double Peterson's points, who was RB #5. I can't think of another player who dominated that much over the #2 scorer at their position ever.I've seen a lot of football in my life and Johnson has skills that few have had. I can't see him falling out of the top 5 unless he gets hurt. He's young, hungry and has some sick ability.

 

[Cassius]

I'm not buying Light Blue Jesus this year. Yes, he had a phenomenal 2009. The problem is that my leagues use 2010 stats for scoring this year. I draft players based on how I think they'll do this year.If you're in a league that uses last year's numbers for scoring, then LBJ is easily #1.

How do you think CJ will do in 2010, and what are you basing it on?

If healthy, I predict CJ will be around RB8. I just see no way he repeats last year. I come up with my own rankings regardless of the consensus. Too many sheeple out there buy in.

You're basically punishing him for having an amazing, all-time season in 2009. As is the OP. It's not smart.

 

[death of the cool]

I have the 1st pick and I am taking CJ. Do I expect the same season? heck no, but I expect him to be in the top 5 backs this year with the potential to dominate again.

Injuries? You can't predict that type of thing......Heck, Peterson has been injured more than Johnson has...but that doesn't seem to sway anyone.

By not picking CJ....I think you are just overthinking things, and really giving the people below you in the draft a nice gift.

 

[shader]

I think there is a very good chance that Chris Johnson is a once-in-a-lifetime player. I thought that chance existed going into last year, and then he put up 2,000 yards in year 2.

Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, Ladainian Tomlinson...all these guys were consensus number 1 or 2 picks throughout the prime of their careers.

I think right now, Chris Johnson is on a path similar to those three.

We're talking about a guy on the way to the HOF if he stays healthy. He might have the best game speed the NFL has ever seen out of the running back position.

Yeah, I worry that he is going to be a 6-7 year player if that, but while he's playing, he is at a level of "special" that the NFL rarely gets to see.

If they stay healthy, CJ and ADP will be 1 and 2 for the next 3 years, much like LT and SA were for 3-4 years.

 

[Clifford]

If any pick you make at the 1 spot finishes top five at their position you've done a great job drafting. And as much as we all love to be fierce, independent hunter-gatherers around here, fact is that when you're talking top five, consensus is your best bet. If 2 out of the top five ADP finish top five at their respective position, that's pretty good.

 

[sgtrobo]

ok, a few points

1) I'm an old man and I've been doing this for awhile. Monster YFS seasons back to back aren't rare. Monster rushing seasons back to back are rare, and history has a funny way of repeating itself.

2) I'm not saying Chris Johnson is #13 or anything. I'm asking why he is SO far ahead of everyone else for #1? 10 of 12 FBG's have him ranked #1 and the others have him ranked #2.

3) No, I don't have the #2 spot (grin) but if I did I'd grab MJD instead of Chris Johnson

Anyway, not poking fun or trying to criticize, just trying to get the mindset. Tons of articles go up year after year talking about the turnover in the top positions and one thing that has been consistent is that 2k yard rushers don't repeat, nor do they come close. I think Chris Johnson is an insane talent, but I don't think he's any more talented than Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, or O.J. Simpson (no glove jokes, please)

 

[[icon]]

As I stated earlier... it's extremely easy to project someone as not repeating a tremendous feat. The HARD part is projecting who is more likely to surpass them. It's one thing to say "CJ won't finish #1". Congrats. Now let's hear you project who WILL finish #1.

 

[sgtrobo]

Adrian Peterson or MJD, depending upon your league scoring

 

[death of the cool]

also....something happening 5 times in 40 years does not make me worry about it too much. I think you would have been better served focusing on his workload instead of 2,000 yard rushers.

I also dont think the gap between CJ and the rest of the field is enormous...but i still believe CJ is the guy to take. I would be happy with any of the top 4.

 

[sgtrobo]

can't argue with that one. I mentioned workload in the original post, although I think he's young enough to deal with that, especially as he doesn't take really big hits most of the time.

 

[Mister CIA]

I'm not buying Light Blue Jesus this year. Yes, he had a phenomenal 2009. The problem is that my leagues use 2010 stats for scoring this year. I draft players based on how I think they'll do this year.If you're in a league that uses last year's numbers for scoring, then LBJ is easily #1.

incite like this is why this board is so great

Nicely done.

 

[aesclepius]

Since 1990, only 5 backs chosen as #2 in the FF drafts have finished in the top 3.

Why do we keep drafting #2's? They're just a POS.

 

[[icon]]

Adrian Peterson or MJD, depending upon your league scoring

The amount of detail in your posts is astounding. How about some numbers? Thoughts on why CJs workload will diminish and those who you project past him will increase? Again... you're taking the easy route here. Lots of noise in here... let's get some signal mixed in with it, shall we?

 

[shader]

As a Titan lover and someone who watched every CJ carry last year...don't believe the hype that he "doesn't take hits".

He got destroyed the last 4-5 games of the year. I was so mad with the coaching staff for running him over and over, even if it was a quest for 2,000 yards.

Now I think CJ might be young enough where it won't hurt him, but he took a bunch of licks last year, especially towards the end.

I'll be furious with Jeff Fisher if he keeps running him 25 times a game, especially in situations where the game is out of hand. That's a good way to prematurely end the career of a potential hall of famer.

 

[sgtrobo]

Adrian Peterson or MJD, depending upon your league scoring

The amount of detail in your posts is astounding. How about some numbers? Thoughts on why CJs workload will diminish and those who you project past him will increase? Again... you're taking the easy route here. Lots of noise in here... let's get some signal mixed in with it, shall we?

ok, I gave a good bit of detail in my original post, and then you asked "who would I pick 1st"??I'm not trying to take any easy route at all. Chris Johnson projections285 carries, 4.5 YPC, ~1290 (ish) yards rushing45 receptions, 350 yards12 total TDssolid 4th overallI think the primary determining factor will be the health of his offensive line. There's a good bit of movement as well, with Amano moving from LG to C, Leroy Harris taking over at C (possibly), and Dave Stewart having arthroscopic surgery on his knee. I think the whole "curse of 370" thing is overemphasized and random, but a 195 lb dude with > 400 touches should be a cause for concern.Remember, I'm not talking about Johnson being a bust. However, 2000 yard seasons, like 40+ TD passes and just about any record-setting accomplishment, is MOSTLY due to talent, but a lot of it is due to the stars aligning just right, the whole "regression to the mean" thing. I think teams are going to gameplan specifically for him and that will lower his effectiveness.I'm projecting him for about 1650 YFS and a dozen TDs. Excellent season, simply not RB1.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I'm not trying to take any easy route at all. Chris Johnson projections285 carries, 4.5 YPC, ~1290 (ish) yards rushing45 receptions, 350 yards12 total TDssolid 4th overallI think the primary determining factor will be the health of his offensive line. There's a good bit of movement as well, with Amano moving from LG to C, Leroy Harris taking over at C (possibly), and Dave Stewart having arthroscopic surgery on his knee. I think the whole "curse of 370" thing is overemphasized and random, but a 195 lb dude with > 400 touches should be a cause for concern.Remember, I'm not talking about Johnson being a bust. However, 2000 yard seasons, like 40+ TD passes and just about any record-setting accomplishment, is MOSTLY due to talent, but a lot of it is due to the stars aligning just right, the whole "regression to the mean" thing. I think teams are going to gameplan specifically for him and that will lower his effectiveness.I'm projecting him for about 1650 YFS and a dozen TDs. Excellent season, simply not RB1.

I appreciate you taking a stand and offering projections. I personally expect CJ to see more carries, but your YPC and TD assumptions don't seem unreasonable to me. Seem relatively fair. While CJ averaged 4.9 YPC in 2008 and 5.6 YPC last year, it's reasonable to expect regression from such a high level.I think the biggest concern I have with your overall perspective on CJ is that you expect him to finish as RB4, and you use this as justification for why he's not the consensus #1 RB. Really, do you have that much more confidence in AP, Ray Rice, MJD or others finishing #1? I mean, when you get to the point of projecting 1650 yds and 12 TDs, it's basically a crapshoot at that point. If anything, given that you seem slightly more bearish than most, I'd say those type of projections from a "skeptic" only serve to support the choice of CJ at #1.

 

[sgtrobo]

nonono. I think people are getting too wrapped up in the whole "RB1" vs. "RB4" thing

Yes, I have more faith in AP, MJD and Michael Turner finishing higher. I do hear you regarding the whole crapshoot, but I think that it's safe to call MJD, Turner and AD stud TD guys. They're all great goal line backs. Now, Flash, for his size, is DAMN GOOD between the tackles (especially for how good Tenn's IOL is), but I definitely think 16 TDs by CJ won't be repeated.

I guess my issue is that, when it comes time to draft that 1.01, so many people are tripping over themselves to trade up to 1.01, even out of the 1.02/03/04 spots to grab Johnson because they're convinced that he will be the highest scoring RB in the NFL

Shark move #1 - make the trade, and take them for a ride

Shark move #2 - draft Johnson, and then trade him right before the start of the season and win BIG

I did #2 in 2008 in several leagues, using Brady as bait. I don't know how many poor slobs gave up Drew Brees + to grab Brady (Brees was my primary target in 2008, FWIW)

anyway, just bored at school today so I figured I'd throw this out there. These Legal classes I'm taking are PAINFULLY boring.

 

[bonesman]

I think teams are going to gameplan specifically for him and that will lower his effectiveness.

As if teams weren't specifically gameplanning for him last season.

 

[sgtrobo]

so I post predictions and then I post things like "the primary determining factor will be the health of his offensive line"

and I follow it up with a player-by-player analysis of his OL, including injuries and player movements

then I mention his size and the workload that he took last season, then I mention basic history, and then, the LAST thing I mention is that teams will gameplan for him more

and you automatically skip to the "gameplan" part and ignore the rest

 

[bonesman]

and you automatically skip to the "gameplan" part and ignore the rest

Because that's the only thing that stood out to me as totally ridiculous... you don't think defensive coordinators were keying on Johnson last year?

 

[sgtrobo]

and you automatically skip to the "gameplan" part and ignore the rest

Because that's the only thing that stood out to me as totally ridiculous... you don't think defensive coordinators were keying on Johnson last year?

absolutely, but it wasn't until Vince Young came back that he exploded, because they had to figure out a way to contain BOTH.I'm not a Vince Young fan at all, but planning for a speedster like CJ while trying to contain a QB like Young who is mobile makes for a tougher assignment than planning for the speedster with an upright corpse at QBagain, not saying that DCs are going to "figure" CJ out, just stating why I think he won't do as well. Another season to gameplan can only help, right?side note, who does Tennessee have from the NFC this season? I know last season they had the NFC West

 

[death of the cool]

If you told me when I am picking CJ at #1 that he would be RB4 at season's end....I would still take it.

 

[bonesman]

side note, who does Tennessee have from the NFC this season? I know last season they had the NFC West

The big, bad NFC East

 

[Pack43]

Adrian Peterson or MJD, depending upon your league scoring

In the league I have the #1 pick, CJ3 outscored the next closest RB by over 100 fantasy points last year. Still seems like the safest bet for me.

 

[dickey moe]

If you told me when I am picking CJ at #1 that he would be RB4 at season's end....I would still take it.

/threadWill CJ necessarily be the #1 RB? Maybe not. Will he be top 4 barring injury? It's extremely likely.