Why is everyone so down on COREY DILLON? (1 Viewer)

[Tong Po]

I know he's on the wrong side of 30. And I know he missed a few games last year. But he's scored 13 TDs two years in a row for a strong New England team. Just 2 seasons ago he had a 1600 yard season. Yet there he sits at RB31 in the staff rankings. Nobody even has him in the top 20.

Is there something I'm missing? Is it because of the rookie he's got on his heels? Everything I've been reading talks about how he's in fantastic shape and looking to prove his critics wrong.

 

[DoctorFantasy]

I know he's on the wrong side of 30. And I know he missed a few games last year. But he's scored 13 TDs two years in a row for a strong New England team. Just 2 seasons ago he had a 1600 yard season. Yet there he sits at RB31 in the staff rankings. Nobody even has him in the top 20.Is there something I'm missing? Is it because of the rookie he's got on his heels? Everything I've been reading talks about how he's in fantastic shape and looking to prove his critics wrong.

I have to agree with you. I think he is undervalued. Sure - Maroney will steal a few carries, but Dillon will be starter barring total ineffectiveness (doubt this will happen) or injury. I have been shuffling him within the 20-23 range among RBs.

 

[einstein2u]

I am targeting him....i still think he has some gas in the tank. makes a very nice 4th round pick....5th round he is a steal.

 

[agent 86]

From my standpoint, I tend to downgrade all Pats a few spots (right or wrong) due to Belichick's methods of holding back info on injuries and who plays. I've been burned in the past and I prefer to let my leaguemates worry about this. Additionally, Dillon appeared slower to me last year. The fast that the Pats took a RB in the 1st round speaks volumes. I think Maroney will be used as a change of pace as early as game one and may take on a bigger share of the touches depending on how he performs. Obviously, none of this is news, but I guess most "experts" see Dillon as a part of a RBBC with limited upside do to his age and recent injury history.

IMHO, he has some value where he's being drafted, but if he ends up on any of my teams, I will hope for some early success and look to move him by the bye week.

 

[Big Score]

Dillon as a part of a RBBC with limited upside do to his age and recent injury history.

The only thing I'd add is that Dillon has a LOT of mileage.And it's not good mileage.

Dude was THE option in Cincy for years. Every D coordinator and every D player in the NFL knew it. Stop Dillon and you stop the Bungles. The guy was a marked man.

 

[Tong Po]

Well for him to be ranked in the RB 27-31 range, most people must expect a fall off in TDs, right? Even if Maroney steals some carries... I gotta believe Dillon will continue to get the goal line carries. With the strength of the Pats offense moving the ball, a healthy Dillon should be good for 10-15 TDs. So I'm guessing a lot of people are predicting him to break down?

 

[Rounders]

He's this years SOD.

Grab him in the 4th/5th rounds and you have a 2nd round talent on your hands.

 

[packersfan]

Shhhhh

 

[mistersmith]

From my standpoint, I tend to downgrade all Pats a few spots (right or wrong) due to Belichick's methods of holding back info on injuries and who plays. I've been burned in the past and I prefer to let my leaguemates worry about this. Additionally, Dillon appeared slower to me last year. The fast that the Pats took a RB in the 1st round speaks volumes. I think Maroney will be used as a change of pace as early as game one and may take on a bigger share of the touches depending on how he performs. Obviously, none of this is news, but I guess most "experts" see Dillon as a part of a RBBC with limited upside do to his age and recent injury history.

IMHO, he has some value where he's being drafted, but if he ends up on any of my teams, I will hope for some early success and look to move him by the bye week.

 

[pigskinliquors]

Antsports currently has him as RB 25:

25. Corey Dillon RB NEP 4.10.18 3.04 6.04

I don't think I would draft him much sooner. The three backs going right before him are Bell, Foster and Dunn. I can see taking him before Bell, but Foster and Dunn have more upside IMO.

 

[David Yudkin]

Speaking as A) staff and B) someone that watches every Patriots game living in New England . . .

The issue is not so much that Dillon is completely done, but more that if he slips he could lose his job in a heartbeat.

Last year, Dillon got in the doghouse by having some partially undisclosed injury and did not seem like he made a ton of effort to play through it. He finally got to the point where he said he would rather sit than play at anything than 100%--not exactly what Coach B was looking for as an answer.

So he took some time off and eventually came back and was not very explosive. In fact, lumbering would be a better term. He looked old, slow, and did not have any elusiveness. He rarely tried to cut or avoid defenders and was fairly easy to bring down. He did pretty well at the goal line, but he was nowhere near the same back as he was in 2004.

While I can't speak for the entire staff, I suspect that they remember the slow and plodding Dillon from last year and see a young and talented Maroney on the roster. Should Dillon get nicked up again, it's not out of the question to think that Dillon could lose the job or see a big chunk of his workload transferred to Maroney.

They were talking about this the other day on talk radio and tv, and the local analysts felt that Dillon would get the lion's share early in the year and by the end of the year they felt it would migrate to 50/50 with Maroney by the end of the season once Maroney got his feet wet.

I think the carry breakdown will be 200-250 carries for Dillon and 100-150 carries for Maroney, but I may be in the minority (with Dillon getting the lion's share of the TD).

He makes a nice RB3 and could possibly pass as a RB2 for teams that took other positions early. He should be ok, but those thinking he will bounce back into the Top 10 will probably be disappointed.

 

[HEhateME]

Everyone agree that Maroney is the starter in 2007. I think yes. But how likely is it that there be a slow phase out of Dillon that might stretch into 2008??

 

[MLBrandow]

From my standpoint, I tend to downgrade all Pats a few spots (right or wrong) due to Belichick's methods of holding back info on injuries and who plays. I've been burned in the past and I prefer to let my leaguemates worry about this. Additionally, Dillon appeared slower to me last year. The fast that the Pats took a RB in the 1st round speaks volumes. I think Maroney will be used as a change of pace as early as game one and may take on a bigger share of the touches depending on how he performs. Obviously, none of this is news, but I guess most "experts" see Dillon as a part of a RBBC with limited upside do to his age and recent injury history.

IMHO, he has some value where he's being drafted, but if he ends up on any of my teams, I will hope for some early success and look to move him by the bye week.

Agree with everything but this. Maroney will see spot duty at best this year.

 

[agent 86]

From my standpoint, I tend to downgrade all Pats a few spots (right or wrong) due to Belichick's methods of holding back info on injuries and who plays. I've been burned in the past and I prefer to let my leaguemates worry about this. Additionally, Dillon appeared slower to me last year. The fast that the Pats took a RB in the 1st round speaks volumes. I think Maroney will be used as a change of pace as early as game one and may take on a bigger share of the touches depending on how he performs. Obviously, none of this is news, but I guess most "experts" see Dillon as a part of a RBBC with limited upside do to his age and recent injury history.

IMHO, he has some value where he's being drafted, but if he ends up on any of my teams, I will hope for some early success and look to move him by the bye week.

Agree with everything but this. Maroney will see spot duty at best this year.

I agree with your point about spot duty at first, but I see Maroney playing a bigger role as the season moves on. One of the reasons Belichick is one of the great NFL coaches is his ability to adjust and alter his plans during the season or even during games. If Maroney can hit holes quicker, avoid tacklers, stay on his feet and basically do all the things Dillon can no longer do the way he used to, he'll begin to see more touches. I don't think Maroney is known for his receiving skills, so he'll help the team more as a 1st and 2nd down RB. I can see him taking 50% by week 7 (after the bye) assuming he's healthy and Dillon hasn't been reborn.

 

[shadow2k]

I owned Dillon last year. I watched him play all year. Getting the ball, plodding forward, ramming into a non-existent hole and falling over. It was ugly. Then he got injured, and it went from bad to worse. NE played around with the Injury Report. Dillon would be announced as the starter, suit up...then sit on the sideline until the #3 FB got shot in the back of the leg while clearly looking better than Dillon had all year.

I'd let someone else deal with this headache. He's not going to return to his glory days. And while he could very possibly score some TD's...it's like relying on Stephen Davis. Don't get me wrong, I played both these guys to start the year, because they were both in the top 10 and continued to score...for a while. But that only lasts for so long, and isn't the consistency you need.

Unless you personally watch Dillon outperform at least the backup FB this year in the preseason, I'd keep Dillon ranked fairly low.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Dillon really looked like he lost a step last year in every game I saw him. As David explained above, there is little reason to expect upside from him during 2006, IMO. He may see 200 carries, but with a 3.44 yards per attempt average last year as a team (3.5 yards per carry for Dillon), that doesn't even get close to 1000 rushing yards. Even at 250 carries, you'd see 875 rushing yards, max, assuming Dillon has lost as many steps as he appeared to have lost last year. 2005 Patriots stats here.

Also, Dillon hasn't played a full slate of 16 games during the past 3 years, and has averaged less than 4 yards per carry during 2 of those 3 seasons.

The end of his career as an elite fantasy RB is here - the end of his NFL career is in sight, IMO.

 

[LHUCKS]

Watch Maroney this preseason and you'll see why.

 

[Jason Wood]

History just isn't kind to guys his age, with his workload coming off subpar years. It would be one thing if he banged out another 1,100 yard season last year, but he showed major skill degradation. He could EASILY exceed his projected ADP because of the TD production, but then again last year belied Dillon's historical TD per touch ratio as much as his yardage totals did.

 

[packersfan]

Corey Dillon 2006 = Curtis Martin 2004?

I think it's possible.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Dillon will lead the league in rushing. But I think Dillon, like Martin in 2004, will prove to be a veteran RB who can be had for a very good price who significantly outperforms his ADP this season. If you have Dillon as your RB3 this year (as many of us who owned Martin did in 2004) I think you're going to be very happy with the results. His TD potential alone gives him strong RB3 value alone in my opinion. Excluding the playoffs, he scored in every game he played in last season except for three (and in one of those games he topped 100 yards rushing so he provided a strong fantasy performance).

Granted, the "Will he or won't he play?" question could remain an issue. But I think he's primed for one more strong season. He seems plenty motivated. I think he has one last gasp in him just as Martin did in 2004.

 

[shadow2k]

Corey Dillon 2006 = Curtis Martin 2004?I think it's possible.

Martin had almost 1,600 combined yards in '03. He wasn't showing signs of losing anything. People were down on him because his TD totals hit rock bottom.

 

[Unlucky]

When a RB starts to run out of gas, I stay far away. RBs typically don't have big rebound years late in their career. With the milage that Dillon has seen, odds are against him rebounding to have a big year.

He may get the TDs, but his carries, yards, and especially receiving numbers will disappoint you.

 

[David Yudkin]

When a RB starts to run out of gas, I stay far away. RBs typically don't have big rebound years late in their career. With the milage that Dillon has seen, odds are against him rebounding to have a big year. He may get the TDs, but his carries, yards, and especially receiving numbers will disappoint you.

I guess it depends where you draft him. I recently picked him up in the 5th round as a 3rd RB (current ADP is 39th overall). IMO, his TD alone should make him a decent 3rd RB (26 TD in 27 games as a Patriot).

 

[packersfan]

Corey Dillon 2006 = Curtis Martin 2004?I think it's possible.

Martin had almost 1,600 combined yards in '03. He wasn't showing signs of losing anything. People were down on him because his TD totals hit rock bottom.

Again, I'm not saying the situations are exactly alike. I'm not predicting Dillon will lead the league in rushing. I'm simply saying that I believe Dillon, like Martin in 2004, will be a veteran RB who falls and will outperform his ADP. If he falls into the fourth or fifth round and you can snap him up as your RB3 -- which is what happened with many Martin owners in 2004 (myself included) I think you're going to be pleased. Just a gut feeling. I have no empirical data to support it.

 

[joffer]

When a RB starts to run out of gas, I stay far away. RBs typically don't have big rebound years late in their career. With the milage that Dillon has seen, odds are against him rebounding to have a big year. He may get the TDs, but his carries, yards, and especially receiving numbers will disappoint you.

I guess it depends where you draft him. I recently picked him up in the 5th round as a 3rd RB (current ADP is 39th overall). IMO, his TD alone should make him a decent 3rd RB (26 TD in 27 games as a Patriot).

how many TDs are you seeing?

 

[David Yudkin]

When a RB starts to run out of gas, I stay far away. RBs typically don't have big rebound years late in their career. With the milage that Dillon has seen, odds are against him rebounding to have a big year. He may get the TDs, but his carries, yards, and especially receiving numbers will disappoint you.

I guess it depends where you draft him. I recently picked him up in the 5th round as a 3rd RB (current ADP is 39th overall). IMO, his TD alone should make him a decent 3rd RB (26 TD in 27 games as a Patriot).

how many TDs are you seeing?

My crystal ball is showing 10.

 

[JetsJetsJets]

I protected Dillon in my Keeper League, but this will be the last year - even if he has a stud year. He is my #3 (bye week / injury guy). I think he will get used inside the 20 and therefore be a good source of TDs, but I can't see him as an every down back anymore. I would be thrilled with 15 touches/game.