Why Slaton may be better than ADP next season. (1 Viewer)

[weasel3515]

So that this doesn't get moved to The Assistant Coach forum (where my other similar thread belongs), I'll make a case here based on scoring in a sample league:

Avg. 50+pt. games 40+pt. 30+pt. 20+pt. Single-digit games TDs Receptions

Slaton 25.9 1 1 8 12 1 10 50

ADP 27.2 1 2 7 11 1 10 21

Here's how they did against shared opponents:

Slaton ADP

Tennessee 32, 25 34

Jacksonville 50, 36 22

Indianapolis 36, 31 40

Detroit 25 23, 19

Chicago 33 37, 34

Green Bay 33 53, 29

Considering how they did against their division foes (teams they'll play for sure twice every season), Slaton's numbers were slightly better.

I predict Minnesota will implode next year. They have no QB, and ADP will continue to see 8 in the box. At some point he'll get hurt. Regardless, Chester will continue to vulture TDs and most of the receptions (important in PPR leagues). Conversely, I predict Houston will win the division next year and only improve offensively. Andre Johnson (as stated during the game today) makes it impossible for teams to stack the box against Slaton who remains in the lineup in all game situations.

Yes, I'm serious here, we'll see next season if my predictions are correct.

 

[thatguy]

So that this doesn't get moved to The Assistant Coach forum (where my other similar thread belongs), I'll make a case here based on scoring in a sample league:

Avg. 50+pt. games 40+pt. 30+pt. 20+pt. Single-digit games TDs Receptions

Slaton 25.9 1 1 8 12 1 10 50

ADP 27.2 1 2 7 11 1 10 21

Here's how they did against shared opponents:

Slaton ADP

Tennessee 32, 25 34

Jacksonville 50, 36 22

Indianapolis 36, 31 40

Detroit 25 23, 19

Chicago 33 37, 34

Green Bay 33 53, 29

Considering how they did against their division foes (teams they'll play for sure twice every season), Slaton's numbers were slightly better.

I predict Minnesota will implode next year. They have no QB, and ADP will continue to see 8 in the box. At some point he'll get hurt. Regardless, Chester will continue to vulture TDs and most of the receptions (important in PPR leagues). Conversely, I predict Houston will win the division next year and only improve offensively. Andre Johnson (as stated during the game today) makes it impossible for teams to stack the box against Slaton who remains in the lineup in all game situations.



Yes, I'm serious here, we'll see next season if my predictions are correct.

They won't be.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

Houston will almost assuredly bring in a bruising RB because the Texans are terrible in short yardage. This will greatly limit Slaton in my opinion.

 

[SteelerMurf]

Houston will almost assuredly bring in a bruising RB because the Texans are terrible in short yardage. This will greatly limit Slaton in my opinion.

Kubiak did not want to use Slaton so much. He is great, but you can't expect him to keep up that carries per game average and have any decently long career with his size.

 

[skillz]

Slaton who remains in the lineup in all game situations.

Slaton actually gets pulled at the goal line at times. Green vultured quite a few TD's from him and so did Leach last week. Depending on who gets signed/drafted in the off-season, I could definitely see a scenario where Slaton gives way to another RB at the goal line which will significantly cut into his TD total. I am not saying Slaton won't be a good RB to have next year, but I don't see him as having a better season than ADP who rushed for over 1,700 yards this year and plays in a relatively soft division.

 

[massraider]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

 

[-OZ-]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

 

[massraider]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

In my main league, Slaton had 13 points less that ADP this season. This league does reward big play TDs, I should mention.I was not a believer in Slaton at the draft, but he has really been great all year. I think there's a chance he will be in a better offense next year than the Vikings.not saying it's a lock, but I think Slaton is very for real.

 

[bluesclues]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

I agree with this statement.ADP is a great runner - but he lacks horribly in PPR format leagues.I would rather have Slaton in a PPR league format that rewards 1 pt per reception.

 

[weasel3515]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

I agree with this statement.ADP is a great runner - but he lacks horribly in PPR format leagues.I would rather have Slaton in a PPR league format that rewards 1 pt per reception.

In our PPR league it is one point per reception. That means that in a game like today, with 5 receptions, Slaton almost got the equivalent of another TD. That really hurts ADP's value. I also think the Texans offense and team as a whole will only get better. They have lots of good personnel in place on both sides of the ball and I don't expect the same out of the Titans (no QB and if Haynesworth goes down) and I think the Colts will start to slide. Either QB for the Texans is capable and they have AJ and Daniels (not to mention Walter and Andre Davis) to keep defenses honest. Would I gamble my life savings (pre-Wall St. crash) on it? No, but I'd invest in it in a PPR league.

 

[gonzobill5]

So that this doesn't get moved to The Assistant Coach forum (where my other similar thread belongs), I'll make a case here based on scoring in a sample league: Avg. 50+pt. games 40+pt. 30+pt. 20+pt. Single-digit games TDs Receptions Slaton 25.9 1 1 8 12 1 10 50ADP 27.2 1 2 7 11 1 10 21Here's how they did against shared opponents: Slaton ADPTennessee 32, 25 34Jacksonville 50, 36 22Indianapolis 36, 31 40Detroit 25 23, 19Chicago 33 37, 34Green Bay 33 53, 29 Considering how they did against their division foes (teams they'll play for sure twice every season), Slaton's numbers were slightly better. I predict Minnesota will implode next year. They have no QB, and ADP will continue to see 8 in the box. At some point he'll get hurt. Regardless, Chester will continue to vulture TDs and most of the receptions (important in PPR leagues). Conversely, I predict Houston will win the division next year and only improve offensively. Andre Johnson (as stated during the game today) makes it impossible for teams to stack the box against Slaton who remains in the lineup in all game situations.Yes, I'm serious here, we'll see next season if my predictions are correct.

fifty point games? never heard of such things. if childress returns your projections for the vikes may be true. houston could really surprise people next year if the defense takes a step forward, but i think tenn, indy, and jax all have a better shot at the division.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

This is why I love ppr leagues. They are full of people like this that don't understand how much receptions change player values. ADP was barely a top 10 back in ppr leagues this year. Slaton was better than him. So no, it doesn't have to be more than the standard 1 or .5

 

[gonzobill5]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

This is why I love ppr leagues. They are full of people like this that don't understand how much receptions change player values. ADP was barely a top 10 back in ppr leagues this year. Slaton was better than him. So no, it doesn't have to be more than the standard 1 or .5

i don't think he was referring to player values. there is something up with this league if ADP had a 50 point game. but if you want to continue the debate, i'd take ADP over slaton in ppr in a heartbeat, just like forte.

 

[-OZ-]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

This is why I love ppr leagues. They are full of people like this that don't understand how much receptions change player values. ADP was barely a top 10 back in ppr leagues this year. Slaton was better than him. So no, it doesn't have to be more than the standard 1 or .5

FWIW I was actually kidding, but thanks for the personal insult. Anything is possible, but would you actually take Slaton above AD?And yes, that scoring does seem wacky.

 

[weasel3515]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

This is why I love ppr leagues. They are full of people like this that don't understand how much receptions change player values. ADP was barely a top 10 back in ppr leagues this year. Slaton was better than him. So no, it doesn't have to be more than the standard 1 or .5

FWIW I was actually kidding, but thanks for the personal insult. Anything is possible, but would you actually take Slaton above AD?And yes, that scoring does seem wacky.

Scoring for RBs is:2 pts. for every 10 yds. rushing2 pts. for every 10 yds. receiving6 pts. for every TD1 pt. for every 10 yds. passing1 pt. for each reception-2 pts. for each fumble

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Even in a PPR where they scored similar this year I'd much rather have AD. With AD you know what you're getting. When he's healthy he'll get the ball, and he'll be great. Slaton could easily end up dropping off the face of the planet for no apparent reason like so many rookies that finished strong have done recently (Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, William Green, Cadillac Williams, Tatum Bell, etc etc). I don't think Slaton's upside is any higher than Peterson's even in a PPR, so there isn't really anything to make it worth taking that extra risk to me.

 

[gianmarco]

Even in a PPR where they scored similar this year I'd much rather have AD. With AD you know what you're getting. When he's healthy he'll get the ball, and he'll be great. Slaton could easily end up dropping off the face of the planet for no apparent reason like so many rookies that finished strong have done recently (Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, William Green, Cadillac Williams, Tatum Bell, etc etc). I don't think Slaton's upside is any higher than Peterson's even in a PPR, so there isn't really anything to make it worth taking that extra risk to me.

The minimal amount that some of these "ppr" guys might outscore Peterson by doesn't outweigh the much larger difference in their floors. It's very easy to look at final rankings for a year and think they will be duplicated the following year. Where's Jamal Lewis this year? Where's Grant? Where's Addai? These guys were all top 10 RB's just 1 yr ago. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Slaton won't be a top 10 RB next year. I'm not saying Forte won't be a top 10 RB next year. I'm not saying CJ3 won't be a top 10 RB next year. But, I am saying that SOME of the guys in the top 10 now won't be there next year even if I don't know which one. And those 3 guys are a much bigger risk to be "that guy" than Peterson is. Even in PPR.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

This is why I love ppr leagues. They are full of people like this that don't understand how much receptions change player values. ADP was barely a top 10 back in ppr leagues this year. Slaton was better than him. So no, it doesn't have to be more than the standard 1 or .5

FWIW I was actually kidding, but thanks for the personal insult. Anything is possible, but would you actually take Slaton above AD?And yes, that scoring does seem wacky.

If Houston doesn't sign another rb, then yes, easily. I am through giving reasons why. Do a search if interested. And you clearly weren't kidding as you still say the scoring system does seem wacky. In WCOFF scoring, Slaton was a much better player to own this year than ADP. gianmarco: jamal lewis doesn't catch passes, grant was easy to predict, and addai was a victim of injuries (his own and his O-line) so he carried the same risk as any back in the top 10. God I love ppr leagues. If only there were more overvalued backs like ADP and Turner. DeWill is heading down that same path.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Even in a PPR where they scored similar this year I'd much rather have AD. With AD you know what you're getting. When he's healthy he'll get the ball, and he'll be great. Slaton could easily end up dropping off the face of the planet for no apparent reason like so many rookies that finished strong have done recently (Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, William Green, Cadillac Williams, Tatum Bell, etc etc). I don't think Slaton's upside is any higher than Peterson's even in a PPR, so there isn't really anything to make it worth taking that extra risk to me.

The minimal amount that some of these "ppr" guys might outscore Peterson by doesn't outweigh the much larger difference in their floors. It's very easy to look at final rankings for a year and think they will be duplicated the following year. Where's Jamal Lewis this year? Where's Grant? Where's Addai? These guys were all top 10 RB's just 1 yr ago. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Slaton won't be a top 10 RB next year. I'm not saying Forte won't be a top 10 RB next year. I'm not saying CJ3 won't be a top 10 RB next year. But, I am saying that SOME of the guys in the top 10 now won't be there next year even if I don't know which one. And those 3 guys are a much bigger risk to be "that guy" than Peterson is. Even in PPR.

This is a reasonable argument but ignores the fact that ADP has less than 10 points in almost 1/3rd of his career games. Far too inconsistent. Good ppr backs don't have this trait.

 

[Banger]

Don't overthink it. ADP>>>Slaton. Slaton had a real nice year but I certainly wouldn't look to build my fantasy future around him, ADP in a heartbeat.

 

[theplayer11]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

This is why I love ppr leagues. They are full of people like this that don't understand how much receptions change player values. ADP was barely a top 10 back in ppr leagues this year. Slaton was better than him. So no, it doesn't have to be more than the standard 1 or .5

oh really? 'm in a 1PPR league and 3 of the top 4 RBs did not get over 22 catches. Maybe people do understand...and you don't.BTW, Peterson was the #4 ranked RB in 1 PPR leagues..don't know where you are getting your stats.#1 Deangelo - 22 catches 325 pts#2 Forte - 64 316#3 Turner - 6 306#4 Peterson - 21 300#5 MJD - 62 294

 

[tribecalledjeff]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

This is why I love ppr leagues. They are full of people like this that don't understand how much receptions change player values. ADP was barely a top 10 back in ppr leagues this year. Slaton was better than him. So no, it doesn't have to be more than the standard 1 or .5

oh really? 'm in a 1PPR league and 3 of the top 4 RBs did not get over 22 catches. Maybe people do understand...and you don't.BTW, Peterson was the #4 ranked RB in 1 PPR leagues..don't know where you are getting your stats.#1 Deangelo - 22 catches#2 Forte - 64#3 Turner - 6#4 Peterson - 21#5 MJD - 62

This is not WCOFF scoring, which is what I'm referring to. Total points is not all that matters. I'm done discussing this subject as I don't want to convince the masses that ADP is overvalued. It's in my best interest to keep him so.

 

[theplayer11]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

This is why I love ppr leagues. They are full of people like this that don't understand how much receptions change player values. ADP was barely a top 10 back in ppr leagues this year. Slaton was better than him. So no, it doesn't have to be more than the standard 1 or .5

oh really? 'm in a 1PPR league and 3 of the top 4 RBs did not get over 22 catches. Maybe people do understand...and you don't.BTW, Peterson was the #4 ranked RB in 1 PPR leagues..don't know where you are getting your stats.#1 Deangelo - 22 catches#2 Forte - 64#3 Turner - 6#4 Peterson - 21#5 MJD - 62

This is not WCOFF scoring, which is what I'm referring to. Total points is not all that matters. I'm done discussing this subject as I don't want to convince the masses that ADP is overvalued. It's in my best interest to keep him so.

not familiar with WCOFF scoring...just 1pt/10 yards..6 pt tds...1 ppr...pretty standard...he might be overvalued in your system, but in most, he is notBTW, you never mentioned your wacky scoring system until your 3rd post in this thread.

 

[gianmarco]

Even in a PPR where they scored similar this year I'd much rather have AD. With AD you know what you're getting. When he's healthy he'll get the ball, and he'll be great. Slaton could easily end up dropping off the face of the planet for no apparent reason like so many rookies that finished strong have done recently (Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, William Green, Cadillac Williams, Tatum Bell, etc etc). I don't think Slaton's upside is any higher than Peterson's even in a PPR, so there isn't really anything to make it worth taking that extra risk to me.

The minimal amount that some of these "ppr" guys might outscore Peterson by doesn't outweigh the much larger difference in their floors. It's very easy to look at final rankings for a year and think they will be duplicated the following year. Where's Jamal Lewis this year? Where's Grant? Where's Addai? These guys were all top 10 RB's just 1 yr ago. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Slaton won't be a top 10 RB next year. I'm not saying Forte won't be a top 10 RB next year. I'm not saying CJ3 won't be a top 10 RB next year. But, I am saying that SOME of the guys in the top 10 now won't be there next year even if I don't know which one. And those 3 guys are a much bigger risk to be "that guy" than Peterson is. Even in PPR.

This is a reasonable argument but ignores the fact that ADP has less than 10 points in almost 1/3rd of his career games. Far too inconsistent. Good ppr backs don't have this trait.

Not sure why you're looking at "career" games. Last year was his rookie year and he far exceeded expectations, but to lump that into what he's done this year and to project him forward is silly.I'm looking at my 1 ppr league and AP had all of 3 games under 10 pts (one of which was 9.5). 3/16 is not inconsistent at all. On the flipside, he had six games of 20. So, not only is he scoring double digits in 13/16 games, but he's also putting up big points in half of those 13 games.

 

[-OZ-]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

This is why I love ppr leagues. They are full of people like this that don't understand how much receptions change player values. ADP was barely a top 10 back in ppr leagues this year. Slaton was better than him. So no, it doesn't have to be more than the standard 1 or .5

FWIW I was actually kidding, but thanks for the personal insult. Anything is possible, but would you actually take Slaton above AD?And yes, that scoring does seem wacky.

If Houston doesn't sign another rb, then yes, easily. I am through giving reasons why. Do a search if interested. And you clearly weren't kidding as you still say the scoring system does seem wacky. In WCOFF scoring, Slaton was a much better player to own this year than ADP. gianmarco: jamal lewis doesn't catch passes, grant was easy to predict, and addai was a victim of injuries (his own and his O-line) so he carried the same risk as any back in the top 10. God I love ppr leagues. If only there were more overvalued backs like ADP and Turner. DeWill is heading down that same path.

Clearly Congrats on coming close to the H.K. / LHUCKS blowhard schtick. With some more practice, you can become one of them.

 

[Balance]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

This is why I love ppr leagues. They are full of people like this that don't understand how much receptions change player values. ADP was barely a top 10 back in ppr leagues this year. Slaton was better than him. So no, it doesn't have to be more than the standard 1 or .5

FWIW I was actually kidding, but thanks for the personal insult. Anything is possible, but would you actually take Slaton above AD?And yes, that scoring does seem wacky.

If Houston doesn't sign another rb, then yes, easily. I am through giving reasons why. Do a search if interested. And you clearly weren't kidding as you still say the scoring system does seem wacky. In WCOFF scoring, Slaton was a much better player to own this year than ADP. gianmarco: jamal lewis doesn't catch passes, grant was easy to predict, and addai was a victim of injuries (his own and his O-line) so he carried the same risk as any back in the top 10. God I love ppr leagues. If only there were more overvalued backs like ADP and Turner. DeWill is heading down that same path.

Clearly Congrats on coming close to the H.K. / LHUCKS blowhard schtick. With some more practice, you can become one of them.

jeff has long strived for such status, but falls short despite his efforts.When it comes to predicting the future, people only look more and more ridiculous when they pull this know-it-all schtick.

 

[puckalicious]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

This is why I love ppr leagues. They are full of people like this that don't understand how much receptions change player values. ADP was barely a top 10 back in ppr leagues this year. Slaton was better than him. So no, it doesn't have to be more than the standard 1 or .5

Ok bear with me here going OT, I don't play in PPR leagues. Isn't the whole point of PPR to increase the value of WR/TE to be on par with RB? I thought the whole idea was that only WR/TE got the 1 PPR and RB's got no PPR. So your just boosting everybody's value relative to the QB then? I guess I don't see the point for adding PPR for RB's.That being said, I would much rather have ADP than Slaton. The time off Tavaris Jackson had this season will help him improve next season IMO and he will steadily improve. Berrian is a pretty good WR and Rice should improve as well giving them a respectable passing game. All positives for ADP obviously. I think Houston will bring in a short yardage/GL type back to be the COP to Slaton and thus limit his value a bit.

 

[gonzobill5]

If you are in a PPR, I think it is very possible.

how many points do you get per reception? More than the standard 1 or .5, it has to be.

This is why I love ppr leagues. They are full of people like this that don't understand how much receptions change player values. ADP was barely a top 10 back in ppr leagues this year. Slaton was better than him. So no, it doesn't have to be more than the standard 1 or .5

FWIW I was actually kidding, but thanks for the personal insult. Anything is possible, but would you actually take Slaton above AD?

And yes, that scoring does seem wacky.

If Houston doesn't sign another rb, then yes, easily. I am through giving reasons why. Do a search if interested. And you clearly weren't kidding as you still say the scoring system does seem wacky. In WCOFF scoring, Slaton was a much better player to own this year than ADP. gianmarco: jamal lewis doesn't catch passes, grant was easy to predict, and addai was a victim of injuries (his own and his O-line) so he carried the same risk as any back in the top 10.

God I love ppr leagues. If only there were more overvalued backs like ADP and Turner. DeWill is heading down that same path.

hahahahahahahahah.hahahahahahahahaha.

DeWill was a solid ppr back even before this year. How in the world is he overvalued? I could easily see him catch 50 balls next year as he's on the field in the majority of carolina's third downs. Only difference between this year and last is that they didn't face a bunch of 3rd and longs.

Would love to have you in my league and watch you land a top 3 pick, then pass on the top three rb's for steve slaton, while i get next year's steve slaton in the 10th round.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Not sure why you're looking at "career" games. Last year was his rookie year and he far exceeded expectations, but to lump that into what he's done this year and to project him forward is silly.

So ADP can project forward to improve because he far exceeded expectations, but Slaton can't?

I'm looking at my 1 ppr league and AP had all of 3 games under 10 pts (one of which was 9.5). 3/16 is not inconsistent at all. On the flipside, he had six games of 20. So, not only is he scoring double digits in 13/16 games, but he's also putting up big points in half of those 13 games.

In a standard WCOFF scoring system (1/10 yards, 6 TD, 1 per catch), ADP had 5 games below 10 points. Weeks 3, 5, 6, 11, and 16. That's 5/17. Last year he had 4/14 single digit scoring weeks. In both years he put up single digits in week 16. Sure, that's not predictable that he'll do it in week 16, but I'm not willing to take almost a 30% chance that he will.Michael Turner had 4 single digit games.DeAngelo Williams had 4.Forte? 0.LT? 1.Sjax (when healthy)? 1.ADP is a hell of a back, and in non-ppr he is a clear #1 to me, but he is not even close to the #1 pick in a ppr.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

hahahahahahahahah.hahahahahahahahaha.DeWill was a solid ppr back even before this year. How in the world is he overvalued? I could easily see him catch 50 balls next year as he's on the field in the majority of carolina's third downs. Only difference between this year and last is that they didn't face a bunch of 3rd and longs.

Really? With his 23 catches last year and rb30 finish he was a solid ppr back last year? Or were you impressed by his 22 catches this year? I'm curious as to how you can possibly justify thinking that his receptions will more than double from 22/23 to get to 50 next year. He is #1 this year because he has 18 TDs, including two 4 TD games. TDs are the most unpredictable stat there is. I can think of numerous reasons his TDs could go down, none why they could increase, and a lot of luck that has to happen for them to stay the same. Do you think DeWill is a top 3 back in ppr next year?

Would love to have you in my league and watch you land a top 3 pick, then pass on the top three rb's for steve slaton, while i get next year's steve slaton in the 10th round.

I only play auction, and I guarantee none of those 3 guys (Turner, DeWill, ADP) will be on my team as they will go for a hell of a lot more than I'm willing to pay.

 

[theplayer11]

Not sure why you're looking at "career" games. Last year was his rookie year and he far exceeded expectations, but to lump that into what he's done this year and to project him forward is silly.

So ADP can project forward to improve because he far exceeded expectations, but Slaton can't?

I'm looking at my 1 ppr league and AP had all of 3 games under 10 pts (one of which was 9.5). 3/16 is not inconsistent at all. On the flipside, he had six games of 20. So, not only is he scoring double digits in 13/16 games, but he's also putting up big points in half of those 13 games.

In a standard WCOFF scoring system (1/10 yards, 6 TD, 1 per catch), ADP had 5 games below 10 points. Weeks 3, 5, 6, 11, and 16. That's 5/17. Last year he had 4/14 single digit scoring weeks. In both years he put up single digits in week 16. Sure, that's not predictable that he'll do it in week 16, but I'm not willing to take almost a 30% chance that he will.Michael Turner had 4 single digit games.DeAngelo Williams had 4.Forte? 0.LT? 1.Sjax (when healthy)? 1.ADP is a hell of a back, and in non-ppr he is a clear #1 to me, but he is not even close to the #1 pick in a ppr.

not even close even though he was 4th in standard 1 ppr leagues this year?

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Not sure why you're looking at "career" games. Last year was his rookie year and he far exceeded expectations, but to lump that into what he's done this year and to project him forward is silly.

So ADP can project forward to improve because he far exceeded expectations, but Slaton can't?

I'm looking at my 1 ppr league and AP had all of 3 games under 10 pts (one of which was 9.5). 3/16 is not inconsistent at all. On the flipside, he had six games of 20. So, not only is he scoring double digits in 13/16 games, but he's also putting up big points in half of those 13 games.

In a standard WCOFF scoring system (1/10 yards, 6 TD, 1 per catch), ADP had 5 games below 10 points. Weeks 3, 5, 6, 11, and 16. That's 5/17. Last year he had 4/14 single digit scoring weeks. In both years he put up single digits in week 16. Sure, that's not predictable that he'll do it in week 16, but I'm not willing to take almost a 30% chance that he will.Michael Turner had 4 single digit games.DeAngelo Williams had 4.Forte? 0.LT? 1.Sjax (when healthy)? 1.ADP is a hell of a back, and in non-ppr he is a clear #1 to me, but he is not even close to the #1 pick in a ppr.

not even close even though he was 4th in standard 1 ppr leagues this year?

Somebody better explain what standard 1 ppr leagues are to me then. I'm referring to WCOFF, which is 1 ppr, 1 pt/10 yards, and 6 for TD.All of my arguments are based on that scoring system, which is one that ADP finished 9th in. Not 4th.

 

[theplayer11]

Not sure why you're looking at "career" games. Last year was his rookie year and he far exceeded expectations, but to lump that into what he's done this year and to project him forward is silly.

So ADP can project forward to improve because he far exceeded expectations, but Slaton can't?

I'm looking at my 1 ppr league and AP had all of 3 games under 10 pts (one of which was 9.5). 3/16 is not inconsistent at all. On the flipside, he had six games of 20. So, not only is he scoring double digits in 13/16 games, but he's also putting up big points in half of those 13 games.

In a standard WCOFF scoring system (1/10 yards, 6 TD, 1 per catch), ADP had 5 games below 10 points. Weeks 3, 5, 6, 11, and 16. That's 5/17. Last year he had 4/14 single digit scoring weeks. In both years he put up single digits in week 16. Sure, that's not predictable that he'll do it in week 16, but I'm not willing to take almost a 30% chance that he will.Michael Turner had 4 single digit games.DeAngelo Williams had 4.Forte? 0.LT? 1.Sjax (when healthy)? 1.ADP is a hell of a back, and in non-ppr he is a clear #1 to me, but he is not even close to the #1 pick in a ppr.

not even close even though he was 4th in standard 1 ppr leagues this year?

Somebody better explain what standard 1 ppr leagues are to me then. I'm referring to WCOFF, which is 1 ppr, 1 pt/10 yards, and 6 for TD.All of my arguments are based on that scoring system, which is one that ADP finished 9th in. Not 4th.

OK..I forgot about our 3 point bonus for 100 yards rushing..that must bring him from 9th to 4th.

 

[NFL-ons]

The argument here is that at the end of 2009, Slaton will perform better than ADP, NOT that one should draft Slaton over ADP. The discussion has not made any estimates as to what the ADP (average draft position) of each player will be next year. Much like Jacobs this year, concerns over what his production will be could cause Slaton's draft postion to fall and if he does perform in excess of where he is drafted he will be a value.

Ultimately, it is the value of players that increase a manager's chances of winning his/her league. If I thought Slaton would perform as a top 5 RB next year and I was able to draft him around ADP 24, I would be ecstatic. Then maybe I could have ADP and Slaton on the same team.

Does anyone have any thoughts as to where they think Slaton will be drafted next year?

 

[Rev]

Even in a PPR where they scored similar this year I'd much rather have AD. With AD you know what you're getting. When he's healthy he'll get the ball, and he'll be great. Slaton could easily end up dropping off the face of the planet for no apparent reason like so many rookies that finished strong have done recently (Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, William Green, Cadillac Williams, Tatum Bell, etc etc). I don't think Slaton's upside is any higher than Peterson's even in a PPR, so there isn't really anything to make it worth taking that extra risk to me.

The minimal amount that some of these "ppr" guys might outscore Peterson by doesn't outweigh the much larger difference in their floors. It's very easy to look at final rankings for a year and think they will be duplicated the following year.

Where's Jamal Lewis this year? Where's Grant? Where's Addai? These guys were all top 10 RB's just 1 yr ago.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Slaton won't be a top 10 RB next year. I'm not saying Forte won't be a top 10 RB next year. I'm not saying CJ3 won't be a top 10 RB next year. But, I am saying that SOME of the guys in the top 10 now won't be there next year even if I don't know which one. And those 3 guys are a much bigger risk to be "that guy" than Peterson is. Even in PPR.

well said.

 

[weasel3515]

The argument here is that at the end of 2009, Slaton will perform better than ADP, NOT that one should draft Slaton over ADP. The discussion has not made any estimates as to what the ADP (average draft position) of each player will be next year. Much like Jacobs this year, concerns over what his production will be could cause Slaton's draft postion to fall and if he does perform in excess of where he is drafted he will be a value.

Ultimately, it is the value of players that increase a manager's chances of winning his/her league. If I thought Slaton would perform as a top 5 RB next year and I was able to draft him around ADP 24, I would be ecstatic. Then maybe I could have ADP and Slaton on the same team.

Does anyone have any thoughts as to where they think Slaton will be drafted next year?

I would expect Slaton to be gone by the end of the second round. Top 15 RBs that will be drafted, in no order, just listed by going down divisions IMO are:Lynch

TJ

MJD

CJ3

Slaton

LT

Westy

Portis

MBIII

ADP

Forte

D-Wil

Turner

Gore

S-Jax

Something you might find interesting, is Earl Campbell's career stats:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CampEa00.htm

ADP's look similar and I wouldn't expect him to last any longer or produce at that high level for any longer either.

 

[FavreCo]

Take a look at that Houston schedule!!!!!!!

Yummy!!!!!!!

The Texans will play home games against AFC South rivals Tennessee, Indianapolis and Jacksonville as well as New England, the New York Jets, Oakland, San Francisco and Seattle.

The Texans will play road games against the Titans, Colts and Jaguars as well as Arizona, St. Louis, Buffalo, Miami and Cincinnati.

 

[bcr8f]

I hope so. It looks like Childress is sticking around and he'll screw up ADP again.

 

[encaitar]

Take a look at that Houston schedule!!!!!!!Yummy!!!!!!!The Texans will play home games against AFC South rivals Tennessee, Indianapolis and Jacksonville as well as New England, the New York Jets, Oakland, San Francisco and Seattle. The Texans will play road games against the Titans, Colts and Jaguars as well as Arizona, St. Louis, Buffalo, Miami and Cincinnati.

And? Look at Peterson's schedule. Games against the NFC north are almost guaranteed 100 yards and a TD if not more, plus he plays Arizona, St. Louis, Seattle, San Fransisco, Cincinatti, and Cleveland. His only two worrisome games are against Pittsburgh and Baltimore(final two games not yet decided).I think they both end up with very good years next year, but there's no way in hell I would draft Slaton over ADP. Peterson had 1750 yards and 10 TDs without having a big game this year. If he has a few 180, 3 td games next year(with that schedule he should easily), then I wouldn't be surprised by 1900 and 15 TDs next year. I can't see Slaton's ppr stats catching him up to that number.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Not sure why you're looking at "career" games. Last year was his rookie year and he far exceeded expectations, but to lump that into what he's done this year and to project him forward is silly.

So ADP can project forward to improve because he far exceeded expectations, but Slaton can't?

I'm looking at my 1 ppr league and AP had all of 3 games under 10 pts (one of which was 9.5). 3/16 is not inconsistent at all. On the flipside, he had six games of 20. So, not only is he scoring double digits in 13/16 games, but he's also putting up big points in half of those 13 games.

In a standard WCOFF scoring system (1/10 yards, 6 TD, 1 per catch), ADP had 5 games below 10 points. Weeks 3, 5, 6, 11, and 16. That's 5/17. Last year he had 4/14 single digit scoring weeks. In both years he put up single digits in week 16. Sure, that's not predictable that he'll do it in week 16, but I'm not willing to take almost a 30% chance that he will.Michael Turner had 4 single digit games.DeAngelo Williams had 4.Forte? 0.LT? 1.Sjax (when healthy)? 1.ADP is a hell of a back, and in non-ppr he is a clear #1 to me, but he is not even close to the #1 pick in a ppr.

not even close even though he was 4th in standard 1 ppr leagues this year?

Somebody better explain what standard 1 ppr leagues are to me then. I'm referring to WCOFF, which is 1 ppr, 1 pt/10 yards, and 6 for TD.All of my arguments are based on that scoring system, which is one that ADP finished 9th in. Not 4th.

My PPR league awards 1 point per reception, 1 per 5 yards rushing and 1 per 8 yards receiving (yardage being fractionalized) as well as the obligatory 6 per TD. In that league, ADP still averaged a full point more per game than did Slaton this year.With little talent behind him on the bench, Slaton accounted for 62% of the team's carries and touched the ball on 31% of the offensive plays. He also had 3.6 carries to every 1 of Ahman Green's carries. ADP on the other hand, with Chester Taylor behind him, accounted for 70% of his team's carries and touched the ball on 38% of the offensive plays. He also had 3.6 carries to every 1 of Chester Taylor's carries.At 201 pounds, Slaton is ripe for having a decent alternating back to come in to split time with him. While ADP isn't huge at 217 (the same weight as D.Williams, ironically) I don't see him being as vulnerable to a split backfield. In short, I'd rather gamble that ADP gets similar touches in 2009 than I would that Slaton gets similar touches in 2009.And if Childress ever decides to use ADP more in passing situations the gulf between them widens and it won't even be close. Further, if the Vikings get any consistency in the passing game to help keep the chains moving, I could easily see ADP tacking on a few more touches or at least a few more TD's, which would widen the gap even further.This shouldn't be construed as Slaton-hating. I just think there is a ceiling with these smaller guys - or at least a ceiling perceived by their coaches - that over time tends to limit their touches and makes banking on them as a top 10 pick a more risky proposition than is going with a bigger, all-purpose back.

 

[Warhogs]

I hope so. It looks like Childress is sticking around and he'll screw up ADP again.

I don't think Chilly was making ADP fumble. He better learn to take care of the football or he should be sitting on the bench. He killed the Vikes in a few games.

 

[gonzobill5]

hahahahahahahahah.hahahahahahahahaha.DeWill was a solid ppr back even before this year. How in the world is he overvalued? I could easily see him catch 50 balls next year as he's on the field in the majority of carolina's third downs. Only difference between this year and last is that they didn't face a bunch of 3rd and longs.

Really? With his 23 catches last year and rb30 finish he was a solid ppr back last year? Or were you impressed by his 22 catches this year? I'm curious as to how you can possibly justify thinking that his receptions will more than double from 22/23 to get to 50 next year. He is #1 this year because he has 18 TDs, including two 4 TD games. TDs are the most unpredictable stat there is. I can think of numerous reasons his TDs could go down, none why they could increase, and a lot of luck that has to happen for them to stay the same. Do you think DeWill is a top 3 back in ppr next year?

Would love to have you in my league and watch you land a top 3 pick, then pass on the top three rb's for steve slaton, while i get next year's steve slaton in the 10th round.

I only play auction, and I guarantee none of those 3 guys (Turner, DeWill, ADP) will be on my team as they will go for a hell of a lot more than I'm willing to pay.

this year, carolina backs caught 36 passes, a real outlier when you look at them historically. In '07 they caught 58, in '06 95. DeAngelo had 23 and 33 catches in a part time role the past two seasons, and got the large majority of catches this year. DeAngelo is clearly going to be their guy on 3rd downs as Stewart isn't suited for that role. I think around 50 sounds reasonable next year.

 

[weasel3515]

Take a look at that Houston schedule!!!!!!!Yummy!!!!!!!The Texans will play home games against AFC South rivals Tennessee, Indianapolis and Jacksonville as well as New England, the New York Jets, Oakland, San Francisco and Seattle. The Texans will play road games against the Titans, Colts and Jaguars as well as Arizona, St. Louis, Buffalo, Miami and Cincinnati.

And? Look at Peterson's schedule. Games against the NFC north are almost guaranteed 100 yards and a TD if not more, plus he plays Arizona, St. Louis, Seattle, San Fransisco, Cincinatti, and Cleveland. His only two worrisome games are against Pittsburgh and Baltimore(final two games not yet decided).I think they both end up with very good years next year, but there's no way in hell I would draft Slaton over ADP. Peterson had 1750 yards and 10 TDs without having a big game this year. If he has a few 180, 3 td games next year(with that schedule he should easily), then I wouldn't be surprised by 1900 and 15 TDs next year. I can't see Slaton's ppr stats catching him up to that number.

First, thanks for the schedule-that makes me feel even better about posting this thread! Second, as for 180 yd, 3 TD games-I think that is highly unlikely given that he had only 1 game with that many yards this season and only two with 2 TDs each. As long as Chester is around and ADP isn't involved in the passing game, ADP's ceiling is about what you would have gotten this season. I think Slaton has more upside. Even if Slaton is spelled (as Moats did on Sunday), he still puts up top-10 stats.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

this year, carolina backs caught 36 passes, a real outlier when you look at them historically. In '07 they caught 58, in '06 95. DeAngelo had 23 and 33 catches in a part time role the past two seasons, and got the large majority of catches this year. DeAngelo is clearly going to be their guy on 3rd downs as Stewart isn't suited for that role. I think around 50 sounds reasonable next year.

So how is next year going to be different from this year? Stewart is here now and will be here next year. Williams is the 3rd down back now and will be next year. This is a run first team now and will be next year. Nothing about his situation will change and there is absolutely no reason to predict a 100% increase in his number of catches from this season. The team has clearly wanted to get him an average of 2 catches a game for the last 3 years, no matter what his playing time was. All of a sudden next year they are going to want to double that?Do you think Steve Smith will catch 160 balls next year? Sounds absurd, right? More than double what he got this year and about a 50% increase over his career high even though there is no major change in his situation, just like you are predicting for Williams. Maybe Clinton Portis, despite never having caught more than 47 balls, catches 100 next year. Do you realize that this is the kind of thing you are predicting? A guy who has been in the league for 3 years to basically double his average production in a category?

 

[Rozelle]

Not sure why you're looking at "career" games. Last year was his rookie year and he far exceeded expectations, but to lump that into what he's done this year and to project him forward is silly.

So ADP can project forward to improve because he far exceeded expectations, but Slaton can't?

I'm looking at my 1 ppr league and AP had all of 3 games under 10 pts (one of which was 9.5). 3/16 is not inconsistent at all. On the flipside, he had six games of 20. So, not only is he scoring double digits in 13/16 games, but he's also putting up big points in half of those 13 games.

In a standard WCOFF scoring system (1/10 yards, 6 TD, 1 per catch), ADP had 5 games below 10 points. Weeks 3, 5, 6, 11, and 16. That's 5/17. Last year he had 4/14 single digit scoring weeks. In both years he put up single digits in week 16. Sure, that's not predictable that he'll do it in week 16, but I'm not willing to take almost a 30% chance that he will.

Michael Turner had 4 single digit games.

DeAngelo Williams had 4.

Forte? 0.

LT? 1.

Sjax (when healthy)? 1.

ADP is a hell of a back, and in non-ppr he is a clear #1 to me, but he is not even close to the #1 pick in a ppr.

not even close even though he was 4th in standard 1 ppr leagues this year?

Somebody better explain what standard 1 ppr leagues are to me then. I'm referring to WCOFF, which is 1 ppr, 1 pt/10 yards, and 6 for TD.All of my arguments are based on that scoring system, which is one that ADP finished 9th in. Not 4th.

My PPR league awards 1 point per reception, 1 per 5 yards rushing and 1 per 8 yards receiving (yardage being fractionalized) as well as the obligatory 6 per TD. In that league, ADP still averaged a full point more per game than did Slaton this year.With little talent behind him on the bench, Slaton accounted for 62% of the team's carries and touched the ball on 31% of the offensive plays. He also had 3.6 carries to every 1 of Ahman Green's carries. ADP on the other hand, with Chester Taylor behind him, accounted for 70% of his team's carries and touched the ball on 38% of the offensive plays. He also had 3.6 carries to every 1 of Chester Taylor's carries.

At 201 pounds, Slaton is ripe for having a decent alternating back to come in to split time with him. While ADP isn't huge at 217 (the same weight as D.Williams, ironically) I don't see him being as vulnerable to a split backfield. In short, I'd rather gamble that ADP gets similar touches in 2009 than I would that Slaton gets similar touches in 2009.

And if Childress ever decides to use ADP more in passing situations the gulf between them widens and it won't even be close. Further, if the Vikings get any consistency in the passing game to help keep the chains moving, I could easily see ADP tacking on a few more touches or at least a few more TD's, which would widen the gap even further.

This shouldn't be construed as Slaton-hating. I just think there is a ceiling with these smaller guys - or at least a ceiling perceived by their coaches - that over time tends to limit their touches and makes banking on them as a top 10 pick a more risky proposition than is going with a bigger, all-purpose back.

I’m a big Slaton fan, but couldn’t bet on him to outdo Peterson next year.I think people who have seen Slaton play will value him higher. I watch Houston play every week (thank God for NFL Sunday Ticket); this kid looks special,

He plays much bigger than he is and showed he can be a feature back.

Slaton can probably play around 210ish and not lose a step. His yards after contact have to be among the best in the NFL. He is a deceivingly strong inside runner who can break tackles, and make people miss, also has the burst and speed to go the distance every time he touches the ball. He’s one of those rare breeds that get stronger as the game goes on, does a lot of damage in the 4th quarter. He generally does something every game that makes you say “Wow”.

Houston is a team on the rise; they’re Denver south in terms of their running game, and Slaton is basically the same size as Portis when Portis was in Denver.

Houston’s O-line will improve; they have the best in the business with Alex Gibbs. Slaton is a perfect fit in Gibbs’ zone blocking scheme. He may lose some goal line carries, but still should be good for double digit TDs. In today’s NFL every back is going to have to share the load.