Why so high on Curtis Lofton? (1 Viewer)

[benyamen]

It seems like almost all the buzz around young LB's here is about Curtis Lofton. Why so high on him? According to the numbers he only had 72 solos, 27 assists, and 1 sack in 15 starts. What's so much to be excited about there to have him at an average of the #11 LB in the dynasty rankings ahead of guys like Henderson, Briggs, Mayo, Tatupu, Ware, etc?

Maybe I should ask this in the coach forum, but the reason I ask about him is that I can get him for a 6th round pick in our reserve draft and make him eligible as a developmental player stashee (kept on roster without counting against it) and move my developmental player (Chris Long) to my DL2 slot or I can just get Justin Smith for that same 6th round pick to fill my DL2.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Curtis Lofton did not play in the nickel packages last season. I was waiting for the full set of stats to come in for an uber-post about this, but check out the player participation logs available for Lofton.

W1 (DET) -- 47% defensive snaps

W2 (TB) -- 70% defensive snaps

W5 (GB) -- 42% defensive snaps

W6 (CHI) -- 63% defensive snaps

W10 (NO) -- 23% defensive snaps

W12 (CAR) -- 53% defensive snaps

W15 (TB) -- 63% defensive snaps

W16 (MIN) -- 58% defensive snaps

Despite playing just over half of the defensive snaps last season, alongside two very solid OLBs and an above-average run supporting safety tandem, Lofton had 72 solos. That's a ridiculously high solo:snap ratio. With the turnover at OLB, another offseason in the playbook and his expected transition to every down player/huddle leader/communicator wearer/etc, he looks like a near lock to top 90 solos. And if he's anywhere near capable in coverage, projecting 72 solos from 60% of the defensive snaps to full time duty would suggest he's a lock to top 100 solos. That's pushing it a bit, but a closer look at the context of those 72 solos definitely supports an argument that Lofton is a LB1 in 2009 and beyond.

Later this summer, when all the snap numbers and percentages are available, I'll put together that huge post showing just how silly that solo:snap ratio is.

And, once again, it's clear proof that the arguments we've seen elsewhere that knowing who plays in the nickel package is much ado about nothing are absolutely dead wrong. Lofton and Leroy Hill and Keith Rivers are very likely to prove the point yet again this season.

Oh, and if the choice is between Justin Smith and Curtis Lofton, it's unequivocally Lofton. Stash him on your DTS if you like, but you'll be promoting him after Week 1.

 

[benyamen]

Curtis Lofton did not play in the nickel packages last season. I was waiting for the full set of stats to come in for an uber-post about this, but check out the player participation logs available for Lofton.

W1 (DET) -- 47% defensive snaps

W2 (TB) -- 70% defensive snaps

W5 (GB) -- 42% defensive snaps

W6 (CHI) -- 63% defensive snaps

W10 (NO) -- 23% defensive snaps

W12 (CAR) -- 53% defensive snaps

W15 (TB) -- 63% defensive snaps

W16 (MIN) -- 58% defensive snaps

Despite playing just over half of the defensive snaps last season, alongside two very solid OLBs and an above-average run supporting safety tandem, Lofton had 72 solos. That's a ridiculously high solo:snap ratio. With the turnover at OLB, another offseason in the playbook and his expected transition to every down player/huddle leader/communicator wearer/etc, he looks like a near lock to top 90 solos. And if he's anywhere near capable in coverage, projecting 72 solos from 60% of the defensive snaps to full time duty would suggest he's a lock to top 100 solos. That's pushing it a bit, but a closer look at the context of those 72 solos definitely supports an argument that Lofton is a LB1 in 2009 and beyond.

Later this summer, when all the snap numbers and percentages are available, I'll put together that huge post showing just how silly that solo:snap ratio is.

And, once again, it's clear proof that the arguments we've seen elsewhere that knowing who plays in the nickel package is much ado about nothing are absolutely dead wrong. Lofton and Leroy Hill and Keith Rivers are very likely to prove the point yet again this season.

Oh, and if the choice is between Justin Smith and Curtis Lofton, it's unequivocally Lofton. Stash him on your DTS if you like, but you'll be promoting him after Week 1.

I completely agree that playing the nickle makes a difference, I just had no idea that he was missing that many snaps b/c of it. Thanks.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I completely agree that playing the nickle makes a difference, I just had no idea that he was missing that many snaps b/c of it. Thanks.

Though it varies from game to game and team to team due to offensive style faced and game situation, here's a column I wrote in Week 3 of the 2007 season that argued that defenses might be expected to use subpackages around 40% of the time based on down and distance playcalling data from Doug Drinen's database. I've since seen coaching comments that suggest they use a base defense anywhere from 40-60% of the time and the last two years of data from profootballfocus support the numbers as well.I've seen arguments that suggest that the nickel defense is just a third down defense and isn't really relevant in a discussion about opportunity. That's vastly underestimates the impact of defensive subpackages. Considering that the average defense sees nearly 60 snaps a week, lopping off 40% of those snaps costs a player nearly 400 snaps a year.

In Lofton's case, in the eight games noted above, he sat for 270 of his team's defensive snaps. That's an average of nearly 34 a game, though the average includes one game in which he sat 62 of the team's 80 snaps -- against the spread offense of New Orleans. Taken without context, Lofton's 67 solos might be the most misleading stat of the 2008 season.

 

[ork1]

Curtis Lofton got off to a horrible start last season I actually got him on the WW. He's young - he's going to see a lot more action - his offense will put points on the board and if you can get him - grab him!! c

 

[Jene Bramel]

Here's the rest of the participation data on Lofton from 2009.

Draw your own conclusions.

CL   ATL	PCT1	 31	64	48.44%2	 46	66	69.70%3	 39	73	53.42%4	 56	66	84.85%5	 27	64	42.19%6	 45	72	62.50%7	 BYE   BYE	BYE8	 39	72	54.17%9	 26	36	72.22%10	18	80	22.50%11	49	58	84.48%12	36	69	52.17%13	33	55	60.00%14	34	65	52.31%15	46	73	63.01%16	42	72	58.33%17	21	72	29.17%WC	40	62	64.52%	 628  1119	56.12%

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I thought I'd check out a few of his more involved weeks --- average snaps for ATL is 66

(46) wk 2 @TB (28 rushes) - 5-3 tackles

(56) wk 4 @Car (33 rushes) - 7-1

(45) wk 6 Chi (23 rushes) - 7-1

(49) wk 11 Den (25 rushes) - 6-2

(46) wk 15 TB (26 rushes) - 3-4

Only 3 PDs and 0 INTs on the year, but maybe those will be pimping up now, considering the circumstances.