'Herm23 said:
'wiscstlatlmia said:
'rizzler said:
'Greg Russell said:
From his tweets it sounds like Foster was sick today. If so I wonder if that was a factor for why the Texans went as RBBC as they did, or if it is something we'll see more of.
Edit to add: If anyone has access to play count (not just touches) for both players for the game I'd be interested to hear what the breakdown was.
to be fair, Foster had 34.... I repeat, 34 touches of the ball today.So, yes, while it's true that Tate had 11 carries, it was still nowhere close.
And yes, Foster was apparently extremely sick with the flu... which makes his performance even more amazing
111/31= 3.5 YPC ...I'm not trying to be annoying, but I have no clue what is impressive about that number. The receiving yards per catch is impressive though.
If this were not Foster, you would not be impressed by that number. If Kevin Smith put up 111 yards on 31 carries, would that be impressive?
Actually, you have that part backwards.If this were not Foster, YOU would be saying it was a truly impressive performance and lauding his ability to fight and gain aggressive, tough yards against one of the best run defenses in the league. This wasn't the Cleveland Browns or St. Louis Rams defense he did this against, it was the Atlanta Falcons defense, where running backs have been going to die for 15 straight weeks.Repeat after me: "Arian Foster is a great player and I have been wrong every step of the way."
It will be therapeutic to say it and finally get it off your chest, trust me.
To review:
- His first knock would be that he wouldn't be able to keep the job and would devolve into a timeshare with Tate. That concern died when Tate exploded onto the scene the first 3 weeks of the season and Foster still came back and resumed his dominant lead back role
- His second knock was that he couldn't produce without Andre Johnson lining up wide to draw so much of the defensive attention and pressure. That concern died weeks 5 through 11 when Andre Johnson hurt his hamstring and missed every one of their games, yet Foster continued to perform at a top level and didn't miss a single beat
- His 3rd knock was that he was purely a product of the offense and that he couldn't keep producing if the offense regressed and the situation wasn't as perfect as it was. That concern is now dying after 2 weeks of still top level production (one of those against the 2nd best run defenses in the league) despite a low round rookie QB, no Andre Johnson, the flu, and a myriad of other issues.
I'm sure you will find some sort of excuse to come up with next, but the reality is you have lost this argument every...single...step...of...the...way. There are no excuses left. The answer is Arian Foster is an extremely, extremely good football player who just so happens to play in a running back friendly offense, but is PLENTY capable of continuing to produce at truly elite levels (meaning best running back in the league levels) even if that situation regresses.
Something that has been lost here. I have never once argued that Foster is a fluke or anything like that. All I have been saying the entire time is that his stats are a bit inflated by the fact that hes running for Houston and there fantastic line. If you checked my dynasty rankings that I do, You'll notice Foster is in the top 5. If you guys think me saying foster is a top 5 fantasy back is a bust, then you have me. He has also moved past McFadden IMO in dynasty, because McFadden is building a resume of not being able to stay healthy.I think a lot of people are arguing at me because they see the thread name (why you hate Arian Foster) and think I'm in here bashing him and pulling the Tim Tebow Hater thread thing....I'M NOT!!!!!!!!!!! He is a top 5 dynasty back and pretty much the clear #1 fantasy RB for redraft next year. WHAT I AM SAYING is that he is not an elite back.
Saying Foster is playing well the past two games is your guys opinion and I value that, but I wouldn't say Its more impressive than any of what MJD Sjax or Forte have been doing for YEARS in there miserable situations. Those three have been playing with what Foster is playing with right now...FOR YEARS!
When Steven Jackson averaged 3.9 and 4.0 YPC the past few years people claimed he was taking a step back(me included), but then I watched the games. He was not taking a step back, theres just literally nowhere to go because the defense is completely focused on him. Somehow MJD is just a boss and keeps all of his stats pretty, even though hes in the same situation. Regardless, it's still sad to see talents like him get stuck on crap teams.
Forte is what Foster would be doing if he didn't have Houstons line IMO. At the Beginning of this thread I will concede, I definitely underrated his Receiving ability. But Look at the comparison Forte to Foster this year from a rushing standpoint.
Foster:
Yards916 Carries 224 YPC: 4.1
Forte:
Yards 997 Carries 203 YPC:4.9
Forte is .8 yards higher per carry with a worse line. Now, people are going to say I'm 'still not adding in those receiving yards huh'... to make it sound like I'm biasing my argument. Foster's 12.4 YPC is one of the most impressive stats of the entire season to me, that is unheard-of for a running back. But I'm NOT saying Foster is a bust guys lol, I'm really not.
Forte was my biggest misjudgment on talent ever I think. I looked at his 3.9 YPC from his rookie year and said he was a bust, without even watching much of him. Ever since then, I learned from my mistakes and do not say a word about guys I have not watched extensively.
Even though hes averaging 4.1 YPC , does that mean hes not running well? certainly not. But let me put things in perspective for you.
Guys with over 150 carries averaging 4.5 YPC or over:
Maurice Jones Drew
Ray Rice
Lesean McCoy
Matt Forte
Beanie Wells
Adrian Peterson
Steven Jackson
Willis Mcgahee
Fred Jackson
Demarco Murray
Ryan Mathews
Guys with over 150 carries averaging 4.4 YPC or less:
Michael Turner
Arian Foster
Frank Gore
Marshawn Lynch
Chris Johnson
Cedric Benson
Shonn Green
Michael Bush
Rashard Mendenhall
BenJarvis Green Ellis
Reggie Bush
If I gave you guys a blind study and didn't tell you how I separated these two groups. Which group would you say has more talent on average. I bet most, if not all would pick group 1. Do I think foster belongs in group 1 based on what he is as an overall talent? of course I do. I think Foster and CJ2k are the guys that stick out like soar thumbs in group 2 as clearly being of better talent. The difference between Foster and Johnson, Johnson held out and had not shown signs of his real self till around week 9. Within the past 3 weeks hes ran for over 130 yards 3 times (130, 190 and 153) and his YPC in the past 4 weeks is 5.7. Now, some subjective info for myself. CJ ran for 13 yards on 12 carries against the Falcons. Perhaps the Falcons is an elite run D, I have not seen enough of them to be honest. Regardless, I have little Doubt Chris Johnson will be above 4.5 by the end of the year, I have a feeling Foster is going to be under 4.
I was not comparing Ben Tate to Foster because I thought he was better, I was pointing out that Tate is averaging 1.4 more yards per carry than foster in the same offense. Someone pointed out that because Tate was a change of pace back and the offense was not scheming for him so he would have an easier time than Foster. I would agree with that and I would also concede that Tates YPC would not be 5.5 if he was the lead back the entire year. I dont think it would be as low as 4.1 though.
Multiple people have used the statement ' well why dont you watch the games'. I would not argue something I didn't believe I am well versed in. I watched A LOT of Foster from last year on NFL rewind(a phenomenal device), as much as I need to watch more of him from this year, I have caught quite a bit of the action. As I've said in other threads, I'll say it here, he has humongous holes to run through. Does that mean I think hes a bust because I'm saying that? no, it means he has huge holes to run through. It means Houston's line is fantastic, I'm not the only one thinking that. Thats my opinion, it may not even be true, I'm not an NFL head coach.
Finally, I do not think Foster is an elite back. I believe he is an above average back and is no doubt a top 10 back in the league. I think he is grouped in With Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, Fred Jackson and Potentially Ray Rice, I think thats the tier. I would Put Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, LesSean McCoy Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones Drew ahead of him if I was grading strictly on talent and skill set. Where he moves in front of McFadden is he is a workhorse and is able to carry the load all year for his team(unlike McFadden). Is that really a sin to have Foster grouped in with those guys? I dont see what is wrong with that and I dont know why people are so quick to rip me for saying that. The top 5 guys are just on another level than the rest of the guys in the league, at least thats what I've seen from the games.
I dont think about the stats when I'm watching all the games. One thing I would point to to prove this is the guys I was really high on coming into this year:
Felix Jones
Arrelious Benn
Beanie Wells
CJ Spiller
Matthew Stafford
Ben Tate
Brandon Lloyd
Greg Little
Darren Mcfadden
Jonathan Stewart
Sam Bradford
Mike Wallace
Some are busts, some haven't gotten an opportunity, some are studs.I think dynasty is a lot more abstract of a game than most think. I try to be as unbiased as possible, sometimes I'm right , sometimes I'm wrong. But I know one thing, the days of me being critical of an NFL players talent is long gone, all these guys are unbelievable and I love watching all of them. Maybe I will change my mind, I have a lot of games to watch this summer before my final decisions are made on a lot of guys. Just trying to enjoy the fantasy season and now the fantasy football playoffs!!!