Will ANY of you take Fred Taylor... (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

I've outlined all the warning signs why MJD will have trouble repeating his 2006 performance IF he does not get a lot more touches. As it stands now, I do not see him getting a huge workload, so his moster YPC from last year should go way down and his TD total should also see a precipitous drop off. Long story short, those two stats were off the chart last year and you can count the number of times those were repeated the following year on maybe one finger. And that might be too high.

I agree that he won't maintain his 5.7 YPC, and he likely won't scores every 14 touches, either. I see no reason, however, that he won't see additional touches in 2007. The presence of Fred Taylor will likely prevent MJD from being a 350+ touch "true feature back," of course, but given his performance last year, the Jags would be insane not to get him the rock a bit more.Is 225 carries and 50 catches realistic? I think so, and with that number of touches he should be near 1500 total yards. The TDs will be more difficult to predict, but Taylor hasn't really been a TD threat, scoring 6, 2, and 5 times during his last three healthy years (2003, 2004, 2006). As stated above, I just don't see Greg Jones as much of a threat anywhere on the field, so MJD should see goal line work; how much is open to interpretation. I feel relatively confident projecting him (at this early date, anyway) in the neighborhood of 10 TDs.I feel comfortable drafting 1500/10 around the round 1/2 turn in normal sized leagues, particularly considering the upside there if something happens to Fred Taylor. I don't buy the "too small to be a workhorse" theory at all. MJD is short, yes, but he isn't small in any sense of the word. Guy looks like a bowling ball with legs out there.

MJD had 166-941-5.7-13 with 46-436-2 last year. Off the cuff I might guess 200-880-4.4-7 and 50-400-1 this year. So total fantasy points dropping from 228 to 176. Last year that would have ranked 18th (which is where Fred Taylor ranked).IMO, it's tough to really rank exceedingly high in a true RBBC UNLESS there are off-the-chart perfromances like MJD had last year. I'm not saying that it's impossible, just statistically it has not happened very often. MJD was one of only four RBs since 1970 that had 225 fantasy points on fewer than 225 touches (along with James Brooks in 88, Icky Woods in 88, and Lionel James in 85.)

4.4 is a really low YPC considering both he and Taylor were above 5.0 last year. I could see him dropping off to the high 4.XX but the nice thing about a RBBC is the YPC is usually a little higher than if he were the workhorse. A 15 to 8 drop in TDs may happen but that seems on the low side as well unless you think they'll pull him at the goalline, which seems improbable to me since that's one of his greatest strengths.

I certainly don't have a crystal ball and those numbers were my best guess at the moment. But consider that in 2005 the Jags team YPC was only 3.9, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could revert to their old form.And I doubt that in two games against the Colts that the Jags approach 600 rushing yards as a team again next year.I think that the QB injury situation led to more of a ground attack than originally anticipated. While that did move the ball on the ground effectively at times, the team ended up dipping from 12 to 8 wins last year (related or unrelated). I recall the team was hoping to go with a more vertical pasisng attack last year and I wonder if they will talk that up again for this year.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

We are not really all that far apart. Like fruity pebbles, I tend to think that his YPC will be closer to 5 than 4, maybe in the 4.7 - 4.8 range (and 5+ wouldn't shock me after last year), which puts his rushing yardage over 1K. The Jags have amassed 500+ RB carries the past two years, and I don't see that changing. MJD appears to be the best RB there, and should see a nice chunk of those 500 carries, plus his 50ish receptions. I guess I just see less risk here, given the explosive big play potential evident in his play as a rookie. I look at a list of RBs that I'd prefer at the top of the draft, and it thins out pretty fast up there at the top. I'd prefer to take him early in the 2nd, but can envision scenarios in which he looks like the BPA in the late first (1.11, 1.12 or so).

 

[The Football Freak]

I've outlined all the warning signs why MJD will have trouble repeating his 2006 performance IF he does not get a lot more touches. As it stands now, I do not see him getting a huge workload, so his moster YPC from last year should go way down and his TD total should also see a precipitous drop off. Long story short, those two stats were off the chart last year and you can count the number of times those were repeated the following year on maybe one finger. And that might be too high.

I agree that he won't maintain his 5.7 YPC, and he likely won't scores every 14 touches, either. I see no reason, however, that he won't see additional touches in 2007. The presence of Fred Taylor will likely prevent MJD from being a 350+ touch "true feature back," of course, but given his performance last year, the Jags would be insane not to get him the rock a bit more.Is 225 carries and 50 catches realistic? I think so, and with that number of touches he should be near 1500 total yards. The TDs will be more difficult to predict, but Taylor hasn't really been a TD threat, scoring 6, 2, and 5 times during his last three healthy years (2003, 2004, 2006). As stated above, I just don't see Greg Jones as much of a threat anywhere on the field, so MJD should see goal line work; how much is open to interpretation. I feel relatively confident projecting him (at this early date, anyway) in the neighborhood of 10 TDs.I feel comfortable drafting 1500/10 around the round 1/2 turn in normal sized leagues, particularly considering the upside there if something happens to Fred Taylor. I don't buy the "too small to be a workhorse" theory at all. MJD is short, yes, but he isn't small in any sense of the word. Guy looks like a bowling ball with legs out there.

MJD had 166-941-5.7-13 with 46-436-2 last year. Off the cuff I might guess 200-880-4.4-7 and 50-400-1 this year. So total fantasy points dropping from 228 to 176. Last year that would have ranked 18th (which is where Fred Taylor ranked).IMO, it's tough to really rank exceedingly high in a true RBBC UNLESS there are off-the-chart perfromances like MJD had last year. I'm not saying that it's impossible, just statistically it has not happened very often. MJD was one of only four RBs since 1970 that had 225 fantasy points on fewer than 225 touches (along with James Brooks in 88, Icky Woods in 88, and Lionel James in 85.)

4.4 is a really low YPC considering both he and Taylor were above 5.0 last year. I could see him dropping off to the high 4.XX but the nice thing about a RBBC is the YPC is usually a little higher than if he were the workhorse. A 15 to 8 drop in TDs may happen but that seems on the low side as well unless you think they'll pull him at the goalline, which seems improbable to me since that's one of his greatest strengths.

I certainly don't have a crystal ball and those numbers were my best guess at the moment. But consider that in 2005 the Jags team YPC was only 3.9, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could revert to their old form.And I doubt that in two games against the Colts that the Jags approach 600 rushing yards as a team again next year.I think that the QB injury situation led to more of a ground attack than originally anticipated. While that did move the ball on the ground effectively at times, the team ended up dipping from 12 to 8 wins last year (related or unrelated). I recall the team was hoping to go with a more vertical pasisng attack last year and I wonder if they will talk that up again for this year.

They didn't have MJD yet and their offensive line wasn't gelling like it did this last season. With the addition of Pashos I only see more running lanes. Their best games were when they ran first and only passed minimally to set up the run. Del Rio is no idiot, he will be running quite a lot this year. I think MJD will average 12-15 carries a game while Taylor will average 10-12 a game. Taylor doesn't need lots of carries to hit his goals, as was displayed last year, and even with those limited carries his hammies were acting up more and more as the season wore on. He will be used well, there still is gas in the tank, but MJD will be the guy getting more opportunities. Whether they are up or down, MJD will be the second half runner and he will be worked in by the halfway point in the second quarter, just like they did last year, and he will get his stats. 225 carries/1080 yards/14 TDs60 catches/540 yards/3 TDs(16 games, rather than the 13 he was used last year)

 

[David Yudkin]

I've outlined all the warning signs why MJD will have trouble repeating his 2006 performance IF he does not get a lot more touches. As it stands now, I do not see him getting a huge workload, so his moster YPC from last year should go way down and his TD total should also see a precipitous drop off. Long story short, those two stats were off the chart last year and you can count the number of times those were repeated the following year on maybe one finger. And that might be too high.

I agree that he won't maintain his 5.7 YPC, and he likely won't scores every 14 touches, either. I see no reason, however, that he won't see additional touches in 2007. The presence of Fred Taylor will likely prevent MJD from being a 350+ touch "true feature back," of course, but given his performance last year, the Jags would be insane not to get him the rock a bit more.Is 225 carries and 50 catches realistic? I think so, and with that number of touches he should be near 1500 total yards. The TDs will be more difficult to predict, but Taylor hasn't really been a TD threat, scoring 6, 2, and 5 times during his last three healthy years (2003, 2004, 2006). As stated above, I just don't see Greg Jones as much of a threat anywhere on the field, so MJD should see goal line work; how much is open to interpretation. I feel relatively confident projecting him (at this early date, anyway) in the neighborhood of 10 TDs.I feel comfortable drafting 1500/10 around the round 1/2 turn in normal sized leagues, particularly considering the upside there if something happens to Fred Taylor. I don't buy the "too small to be a workhorse" theory at all. MJD is short, yes, but he isn't small in any sense of the word. Guy looks like a bowling ball with legs out there.

MJD had 166-941-5.7-13 with 46-436-2 last year. Off the cuff I might guess 200-880-4.4-7 and 50-400-1 this year. So total fantasy points dropping from 228 to 176. Last year that would have ranked 18th (which is where Fred Taylor ranked).IMO, it's tough to really rank exceedingly high in a true RBBC UNLESS there are off-the-chart perfromances like MJD had last year. I'm not saying that it's impossible, just statistically it has not happened very often. MJD was one of only four RBs since 1970 that had 225 fantasy points on fewer than 225 touches (along with James Brooks in 88, Icky Woods in 88, and Lionel James in 85.)

4.4 is a really low YPC considering both he and Taylor were above 5.0 last year. I could see him dropping off to the high 4.XX but the nice thing about a RBBC is the YPC is usually a little higher than if he were the workhorse. A 15 to 8 drop in TDs may happen but that seems on the low side as well unless you think they'll pull him at the goalline, which seems improbable to me since that's one of his greatest strengths.

I certainly don't have a crystal ball and those numbers were my best guess at the moment. But consider that in 2005 the Jags team YPC was only 3.9, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could revert to their old form.And I doubt that in two games against the Colts that the Jags approach 600 rushing yards as a team again next year.I think that the QB injury situation led to more of a ground attack than originally anticipated. While that did move the ball on the ground effectively at times, the team ended up dipping from 12 to 8 wins last year (related or unrelated). I recall the team was hoping to go with a more vertical pasisng attack last year and I wonder if they will talk that up again for this year.

They didn't have MJD yet and their offensive line wasn't gelling like it did this last season. With the addition of Pashos I only see more running lanes. Their best games were when they ran first and only passed minimally to set up the run. Del Rio is no idiot, he will be running quite a lot this year. I think MJD will average 12-15 carries a game while Taylor will average 10-12 a game. Taylor doesn't need lots of carries to hit his goals, as was displayed last year, and even with those limited carries his hammies were acting up more and more as the season wore on. He will be used well, there still is gas in the tank, but MJD will be the guy getting more opportunities. Whether they are up or down, MJD will be the second half runner and he will be worked in by the halfway point in the second quarter, just like they did last year, and he will get his stats. 225 carries/1080 yards/14 TDs60 catches/540 yards/3 TDs(16 games, rather than the 13 he was used last year)

Thanks for your projections. I think the TD total is highly inflated, but that's why they play the games. Ii also think that Drew had an enormously high percentage of long plays/TDs that inflated his totals. IIRC, Drew had 12 plays of 20+ yards including 5 or 6 of 40+ and another 30 plays of 10+ yards. That's like 42 big plays out of basically 200 touches. IMO, that's an exceptionally high percentage and I would be very surprised if he had as many huge plays next year as that is pretty much a rarity.

 

[The Football Freak]

I've outlined all the warning signs why MJD will have trouble repeating his 2006 performance IF he does not get a lot more touches. As it stands now, I do not see him getting a huge workload, so his moster YPC from last year should go way down and his TD total should also see a precipitous drop off. Long story short, those two stats were off the chart last year and you can count the number of times those were repeated the following year on maybe one finger. And that might be too high.

I agree that he won't maintain his 5.7 YPC, and he likely won't scores every 14 touches, either. I see no reason, however, that he won't see additional touches in 2007. The presence of Fred Taylor will likely prevent MJD from being a 350+ touch "true feature back," of course, but given his performance last year, the Jags would be insane not to get him the rock a bit more.Is 225 carries and 50 catches realistic? I think so, and with that number of touches he should be near 1500 total yards. The TDs will be more difficult to predict, but Taylor hasn't really been a TD threat, scoring 6, 2, and 5 times during his last three healthy years (2003, 2004, 2006). As stated above, I just don't see Greg Jones as much of a threat anywhere on the field, so MJD should see goal line work; how much is open to interpretation. I feel relatively confident projecting him (at this early date, anyway) in the neighborhood of 10 TDs.I feel comfortable drafting 1500/10 around the round 1/2 turn in normal sized leagues, particularly considering the upside there if something happens to Fred Taylor. I don't buy the "too small to be a workhorse" theory at all. MJD is short, yes, but he isn't small in any sense of the word. Guy looks like a bowling ball with legs out there.

MJD had 166-941-5.7-13 with 46-436-2 last year. Off the cuff I might guess 200-880-4.4-7 and 50-400-1 this year. So total fantasy points dropping from 228 to 176. Last year that would have ranked 18th (which is where Fred Taylor ranked).IMO, it's tough to really rank exceedingly high in a true RBBC UNLESS there are off-the-chart perfromances like MJD had last year. I'm not saying that it's impossible, just statistically it has not happened very often. MJD was one of only four RBs since 1970 that had 225 fantasy points on fewer than 225 touches (along with James Brooks in 88, Icky Woods in 88, and Lionel James in 85.)

4.4 is a really low YPC considering both he and Taylor were above 5.0 last year. I could see him dropping off to the high 4.XX but the nice thing about a RBBC is the YPC is usually a little higher than if he were the workhorse. A 15 to 8 drop in TDs may happen but that seems on the low side as well unless you think they'll pull him at the goalline, which seems improbable to me since that's one of his greatest strengths.

I certainly don't have a crystal ball and those numbers were my best guess at the moment. But consider that in 2005 the Jags team YPC was only 3.9, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could revert to their old form.And I doubt that in two games against the Colts that the Jags approach 600 rushing yards as a team again next year.I think that the QB injury situation led to more of a ground attack than originally anticipated. While that did move the ball on the ground effectively at times, the team ended up dipping from 12 to 8 wins last year (related or unrelated). I recall the team was hoping to go with a more vertical pasisng attack last year and I wonder if they will talk that up again for this year.

They didn't have MJD yet and their offensive line wasn't gelling like it did this last season. With the addition of Pashos I only see more running lanes. Their best games were when they ran first and only passed minimally to set up the run. Del Rio is no idiot, he will be running quite a lot this year. I think MJD will average 12-15 carries a game while Taylor will average 10-12 a game. Taylor doesn't need lots of carries to hit his goals, as was displayed last year, and even with those limited carries his hammies were acting up more and more as the season wore on. He will be used well, there still is gas in the tank, but MJD will be the guy getting more opportunities. Whether they are up or down, MJD will be the second half runner and he will be worked in by the halfway point in the second quarter, just like they did last year, and he will get his stats. 225 carries/1080 yards/14 TDs60 catches/540 yards/3 TDs(16 games, rather than the 13 he was used last year)

Thanks for your projections. I think the TD total is highly inflated, but that's why they play the games. Ii also think that Drew had an enormously high percentage of long plays/TDs that inflated his totals. IIRC, Drew had 12 plays of 20+ yards including 5 or 6 of 40+ and another 30 plays of 10+ yards. That's like 42 big plays out of basically 200 touches. IMO, that's an exceptionally high percentage and I would be very surprised if he had as many huge plays next year as that is pretty much a rarity.

Watching him play and rip off those big runs after getting hit multiple times is part of the reason I am so sold on him as a RB. He was very consistant last year getting into the endzone most games, and really fought for every yard. I just don't see the dropoff, but I am not being paid for my opinion so grains of salt must be passed to all.I see him as a high character, hard working team player who has a total skill set. He may be small, but he has good mass at 212, so what you see as a small overacheiver, I see as a powerful guy with a low center of gravity who won't take as many major hits as the big backs. If he was like Dunn in size to mass ratio I would not be nearly as optomistic, but I just don't see his size as an issue. It wasn't much of an issue when he started at the end of last year with Taylor out with hammy problems. Also, a lot of his TDs were short. The big plays were in the middle of the field. Greg Jones may punch in a few, but MJD was quite solid in that job last year and I don't see Del Rio messing with something that was working. The team floundered when he tried to force the vertical game, not when they were calling run after run.ETA: Don't let the end of year record fool you. They have a powerful running game and it should be very solid again this year. Their lacksadasical approach to fixing the passing game this offseason speaks volumes to how worried they aren't.