Will J-stew overthrow D-Will (1 Viewer)

[JaxBill]

It might all depend on how much TC that JStew misses because of INJ. JFox might feel that DWill has more chemistry with MMoore and give him more PT.

Are you TRYING to use as much shorthand as possible?

I guess I shoulda used the

 

[bostonfred]

Furthermore, there isn't a single example of Carolina, under Fox, getting rid of a RB before they had to have to "pay them the big bucks." Lamar Smith and Stephen Davis were past their prime when they left and neither were demanded "big bucks." Foster wasn't as good as Williams, and he didn't get "big bucks" elsewhere.

Good stuff. A couple things. First, great job with the numbers you posted. I think they're consistent with what I said - that they groom a #2 until they replace the #1 - it's just that what I referred to as them "running the #1 into the ground", you refer to as "sticking with the veteran". We're talking about the same thing - at least until now, the veteran has seemed to get the bulk of the carries. Even when DeAngelo was outperforming Foster. Similarly, when you say that they didn't have to pay Davis or Smith the big bucks because they were "past their prime", again, I say that that's because they "ran them into the ground" - ran them until they weren't good anymore.

I think we agree, for the most part - they run the lead back until he can't run anymore while grooming a young guy behind him to eventually take over, they try to always have two good backs, and they tend to stick with the veteran. I think we also agree that they will probably stick with their veteran again this year, even if the younger guy looks good.

If I'm reading you correctly, it seems like you disagree that they'd let DeAngelo walk. And you may be right - I don't know for sure. It wouldn't surprise me if they re-signed him. This is a somewhat unique situation in that there's no compelling reason to let Williams go, although he may be very expensive.

Good post.

Not necessarily that they wouldn't let him walk. Rather I disagree that this is (definitely) his last year in Carolina. Williams is the lead back, and (IMO) the Panthers can't be sure they can rely on Stewart to be the lead back for an entire season. I've posted several times before (in other threads) that Stewart is super-talented, but (and he's admitted this himself recently), he's NEVER been 100% healthy in the NFL. The Panthers know that he can be successful when his carries are limited. They don't yet know if he can be the lead RB, for a full season. Furthermore, they have one of the most successful running games in the league, and that is, in large part, due to the talent of their two RBs, and how they use them. As someone once said, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." So, IMO, it comes down to money. Will Williams want more money? Sure, he's earned it, and he'll want to cash in.

Could the Panthers give it to him? That depends on how much Williams would want.

Steven Jackson became the highest paid NFL RB when he signed a 5 year, $49.3 million contract extension. Because the last 2 years will likely be voided, it was essentially a 3 year extension (through 2011). However, the key, as with all NFL contracts, is the guaranteed money. There was $21 million in guaranteed money in that contract. Jackson was 25 when he signed that extension, a year younger than Williams.

MJD signed an extension last year, as well. His deal involved $17.5 million in guaranteed money. Jones-Drew is two years younger than Williams.

Williams will be 28 next off-season, when he could become a free agent. His age will prevent (IMO) him from getting a legitimate long-term deal. Any contract would probably be a two, or three year deal. It might look longer on paper, but any later years would likely be able to be voided. The guaranteed money will be the key.

If Jackson could get $21 million, and Jones-Drew could get $17.5, I would expect Williams' agent to hope for between $10-$15 million in guaranteed money.

If the Panthers didn't want to give Williams $15 million in guaranteed money, they could use their franchise tag on him in 2011. In 2010, the franchise tag for RBs commanded an $8.156 million salary, guaranteed. I'm assuming it would be AT LEAST the same in 2011. If Carolina tagged Williams, they get his services for 1 more year. Williams could then become a free agent in 2012, OR Carolina could tag him again. If he becomes a free agent in 2012, (and assuming no significant decrease in production or injury in 2010), I believe he could expect to get contract offers similar to what Chester Taylor ($7 million in guarantees) received. At the very worst, he should expect contract offers similar to what Thomas Jones ($3 million first year, $2 million second year) received.

Even if Williams got franchised in 2011 for $8 million, and then signed a FA contract in 2012 with $5 million guaranteed, he probably wouldn't lose much guaranteed money than if he was able to sign a FA contract in 2011. If Carolina chose to use the franchise tag on him AGAIN in 2012, then (IMO) Williams would actually come out ahead, with regards to guaranteed money.

So these scenarios shouldn't hurt Williams, financially. But would they make sense for Carolina?

The last two times Carolina has "needed" a RB, they chose to obtain one via the draft, rather than free agency. They selected Williams at #27 in 2006, and then Stewart at #13 in 2008. Stewart's deal contained $10.8 million in guaranteed money. In 2010, the Chargers gave Ryan Matthews (the #12 pick) over $15 million in guaranteed money. Obviously no one knows what is going to happen with the NFL and the NFLPA, but going on the status quo, the Panthers would likely have to shell out as much, if not more guaranteed money for a 1st round RB as they would for Williams services if they franchised him.

So (IMO) franchising Williams would make financial sense for Carolina, as they'd likely be giving out less guaranteed money, for more of a guaranteed result.

That's why I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that 2010 is Williams' last year in Carolina.

Well done.

 

[az_prof]

is this DW's last year on his current deal?

Yes.

The approaching end of the Labor Agreement and the possibility of a hold out in 2011 mitigates against contract extensions this season. Why lock a 27 year old player in to a long term, expensive contract if they aren't going to be playing in the first year of that contract? The team will have paid out millions in guaranteed money to get the contract signed, could potentially get no return on investment in first year of new contract, and the veteran will be one year older when play resumes in 2012. Williams is 27 now and will be 28 in 2011; if there were a lock in 2011, he would be 29 in 2012 when the Panthers would start to get any performance in return for that contract renewal.If he isn't renewed by the beginning of this season, it isn't going to happen.

 

[Bayhawks]

I see close to a 50-50 split this year. I also think Stewart is every bit as talented as Williams. Stewart had corrective surgery to alleviate the Achilles problems. Before that, he still played all 16 games in both of his years and put up pretty strong numbers. Not too shabby for a RB who was never 100% healthy. They expect him to be now that he addressed the problem with the surgery. I also think there will be more times when the Panthers will ride the hot hand.

Anthony,You (and I) have posted in several Stewart/Williams threads this offseason. You have consistently maintained that you believe there is going to be a 50/50 split this year. I'm not trying to challenge you on that, but would you mind explaining what makes you see that? I know that it's your opinion, and that everyone's entitled to their opinion; however since you are a staff member here, I tend to give more credence to your (and other staff that post) opinions.I don't see why there would be a split, and here are the reasons why:1) Before Williams got injured in game 14 last year, the carries were being split ALMOST EXACTLY the same way they were in 2008: Williams 210 carries (59%), Stewart 148 carries (41%). In 2008, Williams had 273 (60%), Stewart had 184 (40%). They didn't change last year, after Stewart had an impressive rookie year, why should we expect change in 2010?2) John Fox is loyal to his veterans, even when it's incredibly obvious that he shouldn't be. He did it when he continued to play Stephen Davis over DeShaun Foster. He did it when he continued to play Foster over Williams, and he did it when Delhomme was horrible last year. In this particular case, it's not even obvious that the veteran is inferior to the younger player, so why should we expect this coach to change his demonstrated practices?3) I've read/heard the argument that Stewart has played with injuries his first two years, and that is why he was limited to around 40% of the carries.If that's the case, it's still holding true. Stewart, who was reported to be 100% on July 18th, and was expected to be good to go at the start of training camp, now "hopes" to get the green light to practice before the end of TC (all news from Rotoworld). Either he's 100% and the Panthers are being careful with him, or he's not 100% yet. In either scenario, I can't see how that would indicate an increase in Stewart's workload. If they are being careful with him now, why shouldn't we expect that to continue (as it has the past few years) during the season? If he's not 100% now, 7 months after his surgery, well after the expected rehab time, why should we blindly assume that he'll be 100% healthy and take more carries?4) I've also read/heard the argument that Stewart is a better interior/short-yardage runner, and so that's a reason he will get more work. I don't believe it's true. Based on watching the two of them, and on the stats, they are both effective at the interior runs. IMO, Williams is slightly better at receiving, and therefore offers more options when he's in the game. I wouldn't think that the Panthers are going to limit those options just to get Stewart more work, for the sake of getting him more work.I would expect a similar split to the last 2 years: Williams 250 carries (56%), Stewart 200 carries (44%). I can't see any legitimate reason to expect otherwise.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I see close to a 50-50 split this year. I also think Stewart is every bit as talented as Williams. Stewart had corrective surgery to alleviate the Achilles problems. Before that, he still played all 16 games in both of his years and put up pretty strong numbers. Not too shabby for a RB who was never 100% healthy. They expect him to be now that he addressed the problem with the surgery. I also think there will be more times when the Panthers will ride the hot hand.

Anthony,You (and I) have posted in several Stewart/Williams threads this offseason. You have consistently maintained that you believe there is going to be a 50/50 split this year. I'm not trying to challenge you on that, but would you mind explaining what makes you see that? I know that it's your opinion, and that everyone's entitled to their opinion; however since you are a staff member here, I tend to give more credence to your (and other staff that post) opinions.I don't see why there would be a split, and here are the reasons why:1) Before Williams got injured in game 14 last year, the carries were being split ALMOST EXACTLY the same way they were in 2008: Williams 210 carries (59%), Stewart 148 carries (41%). In 2008, Williams had 273 (60%), Stewart had 184 (40%). They didn't change last year, after Stewart had an impressive rookie year, why should we expect change in 2010?2) John Fox is loyal to his veterans, even when it's incredibly obvious that he shouldn't be. He did it when he continued to play Stephen Davis over DeShaun Foster. He did it when he continued to play Foster over Williams, and he did it when Delhomme was horrible last year. In this particular case, it's not even obvious that the veteran is inferior to the younger player, so why should we expect this coach to change his demonstrated practices?3) I've read/heard the argument that Stewart has played with injuries his first two years, and that is why he was limited to around 40% of the carries.If that's the case, it's still holding true. Stewart, who was reported to be 100% on July 18th, and was expected to be good to go at the start of training camp, now "hopes" to get the green light to practice before the end of TC (all news from Rotoworld). Either he's 100% and the Panthers are being careful with him, or he's not 100% yet. In either scenario, I can't see how that would indicate an increase in Stewart's workload. If they are being careful with him now, why shouldn't we expect that to continue (as it has the past few years) during the season? If he's not 100% now, 7 months after his surgery, well after the expected rehab time, why should we blindly assume that he'll be 100% healthy and take more carries?4) I've also read/heard the argument that Stewart is a better interior/short-yardage runner, and so that's a reason he will get more work. I don't believe it's true. Based on watching the two of them, and on the stats, they are both effective at the interior runs. IMO, Williams is slightly better at receiving, and therefore offers more options when he's in the game. I wouldn't think that the Panthers are going to limit those options just to get Stewart more work, for the sake of getting him more work.I would expect a similar split to the last 2 years: Williams 250 carries (56%), Stewart 200 carries (44%). I can't see any legitimate reason to expect otherwise.

Stewart was never 100% last year and who knows how the results would have played out if he was. There is no way this can be ignored. I am not concerned in the least that Stewart is not 100% right now. I have not seen anything to indicate real concern about him being healthy when it's time to play. I know some will not agree with this and that is their choice. I am not concerned at all. I believe they are being careful because that is the smart thing to do. They saw what he can do last year and have no reason at all to rush him back. This is a non issue to me. Again, others can disagree if they want to.Using the past is not always a predictor for the future, especially with Stewart's health last year. I really don't see how people can ignore Stewart not being healthy last year. I think it easily could have cost him a lot of carries, but nobody knows for sure. Nobody knows how the carries would have been divided if Stewart was healthy all year. Stewart could have easily gotten more, or it could have stayed like it was. But nobody knows for sure. It's all opinion. I also think Stewart is not only as good and talented as Williams, but better. I know most will not agree because he supposedly has not proven it yet, but I believe it. I don't think a person has to have proof to form an opinion like this. Ask the Miles Austin owners and non owners about needing proof before deciding. Those like me who did not believe lost out. Those who formed an opinion without proof were rewarded.In today's NFL, I think any coach who has 2 of the top 5 or so talented RBs on their team would be smart to split the carries. That is not what is best for fantasy, obviously, but 2 fresh studs is a real weapon.The above, along with Stewart's dominant performance at the end of last year are the main reasons I see more of an even split. I seriously do not think Fox knew Stewart would be as dominant as he was last year. That makes a big difference. He knows now; he only thought that before. I know most will not agree and that is fine, but I have no reservations with what I just said.

 

[Bayhawks]

Stewart was never 100% last year and who knows how the results would have played out if he was. There is no way this can be ignored. I am not concerned in the least that Stewart is not 100% right now. I have not seen anything to indicate real concern about him being healthy when it's time to play. I know some will not agree with this and that is their choice. I am not concerned at all. I believe they are being careful because that is the smart thing to do. They saw what he can do last year and have no reason at all to rush him back. This is a non issue to me. Again, others can disagree if they want to.

Using the past is not always a predictor for the future, especially with Stewart's health last year. I really don't see how people can ignore Stewart not being healthy last year. I think it easily could have cost him a lot of carries, but nobody knows for sure. Nobody knows how the carries would have been divided if Stewart was healthy all year. Stewart could have easily gotten more, or it could have stayed like it was. But nobody knows for sure. It's all opinion.

So you don't see how people can ignore Stewart not being healthy last year, but you are perfectly capable of ignoring the fact that he is not healthy right now?

I also think Stewart is not only as good and talented as Williams, but better. I know most will not agree because he supposedly has not proven it yet, but I believe it. I don't think a person has to have proof to form an opinion like this. Ask the Miles Austin owners and non owners about needing proof before deciding. Those like me who did not believe lost out. Those who formed an opinion without proof were rewarded.

I understand where you are coming from, but since you are a staff member, (and maybe I'm the only one who does this) I place extra weight to the positions that you guys put forth. I know that you and the other staff members don't have crystal balls, but when one of you says things like "I expect a 50/50 split," or "Stewart is better than Williams," I expect there to be some justification behind it. It's not the same as if it were some random member making those statemetns.

In today's NFL, I think any coach who has 2 of the top 5 or so talented RBs on their team would be smart to split the carries. That is not what is best for fantasy, obviously, but 2 fresh studs is a real weapon.

I agree with this point, and that is exactly what Fox has done the past two years. You are saying that you think he should change what he's been doing, without any rhyme or reason why.

The above, along with Stewart's dominant performance at the end of last year are the main reasons I see more of an even split. I seriously do not think Fox knew Stewart would be as dominant as he was last year. That makes a big difference. He knows now; he only thought that before.

Based on this line of thinking, though, Williams should have gotten a much bigger piece of the pie after his dominant performance in 2008, which was a hell of a lot more impressive than Stewart's 3 game hot streak last year. Yet, the split was ALMOST IDENTICAL in 2009, as it was in 2008. Williams dominated in 2008, Fox kept the status quo. Stewart dominates (for a much shorter stretch) in 2009, but we should expect Fox to change? Doesn't make sense.

 

[Catbird]

Are we really arguing at great length about whether the split will be 56-44 or 50/50? Now that Stewart is expected to be fully healthy and is more of a veteran himself, a little safer in protection, etc. I think a 50/50 split is a pretty good bet, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if DeAngelo remaines the 'starter' and gets a few more carries. I just don't think agruing over whether it'll be 56/44 or 50/50 is worth a lot of argument, particularly where both have a history of being nicked now and then, and this year's nicks probably will have a lot more to say about the split than any pre-season split differential - even if we knew exactly what Fox was planning to do. I sugest you each take the guy you like better and wish each other well.

 

[Bayhawks]

Are we really arguing at great length about whether the split will be 56-44 or 50/50? Now that Stewart is expected to be fully healthy and is more of a veteran himself, a little safer in protection, etc. I think a 50/50 split is a pretty good bet, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if DeAngelo remaines the 'starter' and gets a few more carries. I just don't think agruing over whether it'll be 56/44 or 50/50 is worth a lot of argument, particularly where both have a history of being nicked now and then, and this year's nicks probably will have a lot more to say about the split than any pre-season split differential - even if we knew exactly what Fox was planning to do. I sugest you each take the guy you like better and wish each other well.

Catbird,It's not so much the percentages of the carries, exactly, but rather how they are distributed. If Williams continues to get approximately 55-60% of the carries, IN THE SAME WAY THE CARRIES HAVE BEEN SPLIT the last two years, then he will be a viable FF starter (whether he'll be a RB1 or RB2 is another debate) and Stewart will not be a RELIABLE FF RB2. The last 2 years, when both backs have been healthy, Williams has been a consistent, reliable FF RB. Stewart has not, because his carries have not been consistent or reliable. He'd go 6 carries for 12 yards in week 6 (2008) against TB, then 15 carries for 115 and 2 TDs in week 13 against TB. He'd get 17 carries one game, and only 7 the next. If Fox decides to go to a 50/50 split, it would likely cause that to change. Williams would get less carries, becoming less reliable and consistent, and Stewart would get more, becoming more reliable and consistent. It's not as simple as saying "it's only a 6% difference in carries (about 25 or so a season), so I'll just take one or the other." The way those carries are distributed are the key.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I also think Stewart is not only as good and talented as Williams, but better. I know most will not agree because he supposedly has not proven it yet, but I believe it. I don't think a person has to have proof to form an opinion like this. Ask the Miles Austin owners and non owners about needing proof before deciding. Those like me who did not believe lost out. Those who formed an opinion without proof were rewarded.

I understand where you are coming from, but since you are a staff member, (and maybe I'm the only one who does this) I place extra weight to the positions that you guys put forth. I know that you and the other staff members don't have crystal balls, but when one of you says things like "I expect a 50/50 split," or "Stewart is better than Williams," I expect there to be some justification behind it. It's not the same as if it were some random member making those statemetns.

There is plenty of justification in my post for why I think there will be a 50-50 split. I gave plenty of reasons to back up my opinions throughout my post. I'm not sure what you expect, but I can say without hesitation that I refuse to only use past history as a predictor for the future. Just because the splits were a certain way last year does not mean they will be the same this year. If I believe Stewart is a better player or has more talent and said the opposite because of only looking at the past, I would be doing the FBG community a disservice and also falling into the groupthink trap. I'm not going to post something that I don't believe no matter how outlandish you or anyone else thinks it is.

I believe with conviction everything I stated about the Stewart situation and gave my reasons why. I leave it up to others to agree or disagree. You are right; I don't have a crystal ball...but neither does anyone else.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I also think Stewart is not only as good and talented as Williams, but better. I know most will not agree because he supposedly has not proven it yet, but I believe it. I don't think a person has to have proof to form an opinion like this. Ask the Miles Austin owners and non owners about needing proof before deciding. Those like me who did not believe lost out. Those who formed an opinion without proof were rewarded.

I understand where you are coming from, but since you are a staff member, (and maybe I'm the only one who does this) I place extra weight to the positions that you guys put forth. I know that you and the other staff members don't have crystal balls, but when one of you says things like "I expect a 50/50 split," or "Stewart is better than Williams," I expect there to be some justification behind it. It's not the same as if it were some random member making those statemetns.

There is plenty of justification in my post for why I think there will be a 50-50 split. I gave plenty of reasons to back up my opinions throughout my post. I'm not sure what you expect, but I can say without hesitation that I refuse to only use past history as a predictor for the future. Just because the splits were a certain way last year does not mean they will be the same this year. If I believe Stewart is a better player or has more talent and said the opposite because of only looking at the past, I would be doing the FBG community a disservice and also falling into the groupthink trap. I'm not going to post something that I don't believe no matter how outlandish you or anyone else thinks it is.

I believe with conviction everything I stated about the Stewart situation and gave my reasons why. I leave it up to others to agree or disagree. You are right; I don't have a crystal ball...but neither does anyone else.

AB - from reading your posts, your primary rationale (for Stewart receiving more carries) seems to be:1. Stewart was injured last year, so we don't really know how Fox would have used him IF Stewart had been healthy

2. Stewart is more talented than Williams, so you expect him to get more carries

3. Stewart performed very well at the end of 2009, so you expect him to get more carries

I'm probably missing some important nuance in your points, but is that your rationale?

 

[Bayhawks]

I also think Stewart is not only as good and talented as Williams, but better. I know most will not agree because he supposedly has not proven it yet, but I believe it. I don't think a person has to have proof to form an opinion like this. Ask the Miles Austin owners and non owners about needing proof before deciding. Those like me who did not believe lost out. Those who formed an opinion without proof were rewarded.

I understand where you are coming from, but since you are a staff member, (and maybe I'm the only one who does this) I place extra weight to the positions that you guys put forth. I know that you and the other staff members don't have crystal balls, but when one of you says things like "I expect a 50/50 split," or "Stewart is better than Williams," I expect there to be some justification behind it. It's not the same as if it were some random member making those statemetns.

There is plenty of justification in my post for why I think there will be a 50-50 split. I gave plenty of reasons to back up my opinions throughout my post. I'm not sure what you expect, but I can say without hesitation that I refuse to only use past history as a predictor for the future. Just because the splits were a certain way last year does not mean they will be the same this year. If I believe Stewart is a better player or has more talent and said the opposite because of only looking at the past, I would be doing the FBG community a disservice and also falling into the groupthink trap. I'm not going to post something that I don't believe no matter how outlandish you or anyone else thinks it is.

I believe with conviction everything I stated about the Stewart situation and gave my reasons why. I leave it up to others to agree or disagree. You are right; I don't have a crystal ball...but neither does anyone else.

Anthony,Sorry if you took my post as bashing you. I didn't mean it that way.

The way I read it, you think that Stewart is more talented than Williams, and you think that Fox has to have realized that because of Stewart's performance at the end of last year. You also think that Stewart will be fully healthy come the regular season. When I said "justification," maybe I should have said evidence or proof, but I feel that those were the wrong words.

Basically, I read it as you saying these are your opinions based on the way you are interpreting the situation in Carolina, not that it is based on quotes from Fox, the Panthers, beat writers, etc.

I don't agree with your opinion, but that doesn't mean it's wrong.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I also think Stewart is not only as good and talented as Williams, but better. I know most will not agree because he supposedly has not proven it yet, but I believe it. I don't think a person has to have proof to form an opinion like this. Ask the Miles Austin owners and non owners about needing proof before deciding. Those like me who did not believe lost out. Those who formed an opinion without proof were rewarded.

I understand where you are coming from, but since you are a staff member, (and maybe I'm the only one who does this) I place extra weight to the positions that you guys put forth. I know that you and the other staff members don't have crystal balls, but when one of you says things like "I expect a 50/50 split," or "Stewart is better than Williams," I expect there to be some justification behind it. It's not the same as if it were some random member making those statemetns.

There is plenty of justification in my post for why I think there will be a 50-50 split. I gave plenty of reasons to back up my opinions throughout my post. I'm not sure what you expect, but I can say without hesitation that I refuse to only use past history as a predictor for the future. Just because the splits were a certain way last year does not mean they will be the same this year. If I believe Stewart is a better player or has more talent and said the opposite because of only looking at the past, I would be doing the FBG community a disservice and also falling into the groupthink trap. I'm not going to post something that I don't believe no matter how outlandish you or anyone else thinks it is.

I believe with conviction everything I stated about the Stewart situation and gave my reasons why. I leave it up to others to agree or disagree. You are right; I don't have a crystal ball...but neither does anyone else.

AB - from reading your posts, your primary rationale (for Stewart receiving more carries) seems to be:1. Stewart was injured last year, so we don't really know how Fox would have used him IF Stewart had been healthy

2. Stewart is more talented than Williams, so you expect him to get more carries

3. Stewart performed very well at the end of 2009, so you expect him to get more carries

I'm probably missing some important nuance in your points, but is that your rationale?

Regarding number 1, I believe Fox was forced to limit Stewart because of his injury. Nobody knows how he would have been used if not for the injury. Regarding number 3, I believe Fox knew Stewart was good, but I do not think Fox knew that Stewart would be as dominant as he was at the end of the year.

Those are the 2 key reasons, along with my belief that a 50-50 time share will keep both backs fresher and 2 studs that are fresh is a lethal thing for an offense to have. Neither RB is better than the other enough to demand the lions share of the carries.

Regarding number 2, the talent thing is just an opinion more than fact because nobody can "prove" who has more talent. History usually shows who the better player is, but we won't know that for a few years. Obviously, Williams has proven more to this point, but he has been healthier and played longer so that is not a surprise. But that doesn't mean he will be better (or not better) going forward.

 

[Largie]

if the team starts out terrible....what's the ratio then? I'd expect the franchise moves Stewart into a bigger role/carry and lowers DWill's as he moves into the FA market.

 

[Bayhawks]

if the team starts out terrible....what's the ratio then? I'd expect the franchise moves Stewart into a bigger role/carry and lowers DWill's as he moves into the FA market.

I've heard people say this and read people post this idea numerous times, and not just about the Carolina duo. I can't remember a single time, however, when it's actually happened. Has a team ever played a lesser player/back-up just because he was under contract for the next year and the starter wasn't?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

if the team starts out terrible....what's the ratio then? I'd expect the franchise moves Stewart into a bigger role/carry and lowers DWill's as he moves into the FA market.

I've heard people say this and read people post this idea numerous times, and not just about the Carolina duo. I can't remember a single time, however, when it's actually happened. Has a team ever played a lesser player/back-up just because he was under contract for the next year and the starter wasn't?

Wouldn't the team play the FA RB more...to damage up his body and save their back of the future?

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I also think Stewart is not only as good and talented as Williams, but better. I know most will not agree because he supposedly has not proven it yet, but I believe it. I don't think a person has to have proof to form an opinion like this. Ask the Miles Austin owners and non owners about needing proof before deciding. Those like me who did not believe lost out. Those who formed an opinion without proof were rewarded.

I understand where you are coming from, but since you are a staff member, (and maybe I'm the only one who does this) I place extra weight to the positions that you guys put forth. I know that you and the other staff members don't have crystal balls, but when one of you says things like "I expect a 50/50 split," or "Stewart is better than Williams," I expect there to be some justification behind it. It's not the same as if it were some random member making those statemetns.

There is plenty of justification in my post for why I think there will be a 50-50 split. I gave plenty of reasons to back up my opinions throughout my post. I'm not sure what you expect, but I can say without hesitation that I refuse to only use past history as a predictor for the future. Just because the splits were a certain way last year does not mean they will be the same this year. If I believe Stewart is a better player or has more talent and said the opposite because of only looking at the past, I would be doing the FBG community a disservice and also falling into the groupthink trap. I'm not going to post something that I don't believe no matter how outlandish you or anyone else thinks it is.

I believe with conviction everything I stated about the Stewart situation and gave my reasons why. I leave it up to others to agree or disagree. You are right; I don't have a crystal ball...but neither does anyone else.

Anthony,Sorry if you took my post as bashing you. I didn't mean it that way.

The way I read it, you think that Stewart is more talented than Williams, and you think that Fox has to have realized that because of Stewart's performance at the end of last year. You also think that Stewart will be fully healthy come the regular season. When I said "justification," maybe I should have said evidence or proof, but I feel that those were the wrong words.

Basically, I read it as you saying these are your opinions based on the way you are interpreting the situation in Carolina, not that it is based on quotes from Fox, the Panthers, beat writers, etc.

I don't agree with your opinion, but that doesn't mean it's wrong.

Below is what I saw about the surgery: Link

Stewart hopes he'll have a much more pain-free season this year after his Jan. 20 operation by team orthopedist Dr. Robert Anderson, widely considered the nation's top foot surgeon for professional athletes.

Stewart, a 2008 first-round draft pick, said Anderson shaved away excess calcium deposits and cleaned out his bursa sacs during the procedure.

Basically, he had a bone spur which rubbed against the Achilles and aggravated it. There is nothing wrong with his Achilles.I have not seen any quotes from the Panthers that suggest any concern about Stewart's health, despite him not being 100% yet. Everything I have read suggests the surgery was not major and corrective. I have not seen anything that indicates the Panthers being concerned about it, which tells me they are just being cautious. If there is something that says otherwise, I have not seen it.

I have also not seen any quotes from the Panthers coaches regarding how the carries will be divided. If there are some, I'd like to see them.

Those are the things that I have based a lot of my opinions on.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

if the team starts out terrible....what's the ratio then? I'd expect the franchise moves Stewart into a bigger role/carry and lowers DWill's as he moves into the FA market.

I've heard people say this and read people post this idea numerous times, and not just about the Carolina duo. I can't remember a single time, however, when it's actually happened. Has a team ever played a lesser player/back-up just because he was under contract for the next year and the starter wasn't?

Wouldn't the team play the FA RB more...to damage up his body and save their back of the future?

I don't think losing would change anything having to do with the carries either way. I would be more worried about Steve Smith if they lose early because it could mean a rookie QB would be playing at some point.

 

[Bayhawks]

Basically, he had a bone spur which rubbed against the Achilles and aggravated it. There is nothing wrong with his Achilles.

I have not seen any quotes from the Panthers that suggest any concern about Stewart's health, despite him not being 100% yet. Everything I have read suggests the surgery was not major and corrective. I have not seen anything that indicates the Panthers being concerned about it, which tells me they are just being cautious. If there is something that says otherwise, I have not seen it.

I have also not seen any quotes from the Panthers coaches regarding how the carries will be divided. If there are some, I'd like to see them.

Those are the things that I have based a lot of my opinions on.

Not for nothing, Anthony, but wouldn't him being on the PUP list for the first 10 days (and counting) of camp indicate that they are concerned? You said as much yourself. You said they're being cautious. If they are being cautious, wouldn't that be because they are concerned. Otherwise, why wouldn't Williams be on PUP? Why wouldn't the Jags put Jones-Drew on PUP? Why wouldn't the Vikings have Peterson on PUP? I'm sure they would want to be "cautious" with those guys, as well.

I respect the fact that you have your opinion, and you're sticking to it, but to say that the Panthers aren't concerned with Stewart's injury is misleading.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Basically, he had a bone spur which rubbed against the Achilles and aggravated it. There is nothing wrong with his Achilles.

I have not seen any quotes from the Panthers that suggest any concern about Stewart's health, despite him not being 100% yet. Everything I have read suggests the surgery was not major and corrective. I have not seen anything that indicates the Panthers being concerned about it, which tells me they are just being cautious. If there is something that says otherwise, I have not seen it.

I have also not seen any quotes from the Panthers coaches regarding how the carries will be divided. If there are some, I'd like to see them.

Those are the things that I have based a lot of my opinions on.

Not for nothing, Anthony, but wouldn't him being on the PUP list for the first 10 days (and counting) of camp indicate that they are concerned? You said as much yourself. You said they're being cautious. If they are being cautious, wouldn't that be because they are concerned. Otherwise, why wouldn't Williams be on PUP? Why wouldn't the Jags put Jones-Drew on PUP? Why wouldn't the Vikings have Peterson on PUP? I'm sure they would want to be "cautious" with those guys, as well.

I respect the fact that you have your opinion, and you're sticking to it, but to say that the Panthers aren't concerned with Stewart's injury is misleading.

If they are concerned, I would have to believe there would be mention of it somewhere. They are being cautious as they should. There is a difference between concerned and cautious. Plus, we have not even reached the first preseason game yet. They have no reason at all to rush Stewart back.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Basically, he had a bone spur which rubbed against the Achilles and aggravated it. There is nothing wrong with his Achilles.

I have not seen any quotes from the Panthers that suggest any concern about Stewart's health, despite him not being 100% yet. Everything I have read suggests the surgery was not major and corrective. I have not seen anything that indicates the Panthers being concerned about it, which tells me they are just being cautious. If there is something that says otherwise, I have not seen it.

I have also not seen any quotes from the Panthers coaches regarding how the carries will be divided. If there are some, I'd like to see them.

Those are the things that I have based a lot of my opinions on.

Not for nothing, Anthony, but wouldn't him being on the PUP list for the first 10 days (and counting) of camp indicate that they are concerned? You said as much yourself. You said they're being cautious. If they are being cautious, wouldn't that be because they are concerned. Otherwise, why wouldn't Williams be on PUP? Why wouldn't the Jags put Jones-Drew on PUP? Why wouldn't the Vikings have Peterson on PUP? I'm sure they would want to be "cautious" with those guys, as well.

I respect the fact that you have your opinion, and you're sticking to it, but to say that the Panthers aren't concerned with Stewart's injury is misleading.

How would placing someone on the PUP, in and of itself, show that a team is "concerned" about a player? Putting a guy on PUP could simply mean that a player is following normal recovery trajectory (but isn't ready to practice yet), so the team has the player on PUP to save a roster spot for training camp.Given that not a single article has come out suggesting that Stewart is behind schedule on his recovery, it's very reasonable to assume that this is precisely why the Panthers have him on PUP - to save a roster spot for training camp - and not out of any particular "concern" for Stewart's health.

 

[-jb-]

We're each about 220 or 230 carries a year. I'd rather have that than 300-plus carries a year. That wears on your legs and you're not going to last long doing that.

- DeAngelo Williams, clipped from FFI2010That said, I still like Williams chances to blow up this year,

 

[Bayhawks]

How would placing someone on the PUP, in and of itself, show that a team is "concerned" about a player?

Because you don't put guys on the PUP who are healthy? Because TC is considered important and valuable, and if they felt he was able to participate, they would want him to, so the fact that they are holding him out demonstrates that they are CONCERNED he might re-aggravate/re-injure his achilles?

Putting a guy on PUP could simply mean that a player is following normal recovery trajectory (but isn't ready to practice yet), so the team has the player on PUP to save a roster spot for training camp.

Given that not a single article has come out suggesting that Stewart is behind schedule on his recovery, it's very reasonable to assume that this is precisely why the Panthers have him on PUP - to save a roster spot for training camp - and not out of any particular "concern" for Stewart's health.

Oh, really?? Should be ready for MAY mini-camps

5 topics down, April 5-expected to be ready by Training Camp

He was expected to be ready for Mini-camps, and then by Training camps He hasn't been ready to participate in either. Since he's missed two (significant) events he was supposed to be ready for, wouldn't that qualify as behind "behind schedule?"

And, for good measure, I couldn't find a quote from Fox, or Panthers management that shows that Stewart isn't healthy, so (as the saying goes), I went to the "horses mouth."

Stewart quote, 5 paragraphs in

"Once I get healthy, it's going to be one of the best days of my life." -Jonathan Stewart

Stewart himself, on July 31 admitted he wasn't healthy. But despite what the man himself says, we are supposed to believe that he's not behind schedule in his recovery?

 

[Bayhawks]

We're each about 220 or 230 carries a year. I'd rather have that than 300-plus carries a year. That wears on your legs and you're not going to last long doing that.

- DeAngelo Williams, clipped from FFI2010That said, I still like Williams chances to blow up this year,

That quote was from March, when Williams was being interviewed for an ESPN article. It may be Williams being a "team player," or he may really feel that way. Either way, (IMO)it's the context in which the quote was made that is important. Williams was guessing about the numbers. What I think he meant was what Carolina was doing was working, and he was happy with that. Here's more of that same quote:

With me and Jonathan back there and sharing it the way we do, that’s a real treat and neither one of us is going to get worn out."

You could take this part of the quote as meaning what has happened in the past is going to continue to happen; ie-Williams getting the larger % of carries, with Stewart close behind.

“It’s going to be close to a 50-50 split no matter what," Williams said. “That’s what the coaching staff and the front office wants and it’s also what Jonathan and I want. It’s good for both of us. We’re at our best when it’s that way."

And here is the first mention I've read from anyone in the Panther organization of a 50-50 split. This I would consider as support for the belief that Stewart will get more carries.To be fair, though, after reading the entire article, and ALL of Williams' statements therein, I believe he was merely pointing out that he was fine with the way things have gone in Carolina the last 2 years, and he saw no need to change. I don't think he was necessarily predicting a shift to more of an even, 50-50 split between him and Stewart.

ETA-The last paragraph is merely my interpretation of what Williams said in this article back in March.

 

[-jb-]

We're each about 220 or 230 carries a year. I'd rather have that than 300-plus carries a year. That wears on your legs and you're not going to last long doing that.

- DeAngelo Williams, clipped from FFI2010That said, I still like Williams chances to blow up this year,

That quote was from March, when Williams was being interviewed for an ESPN article. It may be Williams being a "team player," or he may really feel that way. Either way, (IMO)it's the context in which the quote was made that is important. Williams was guessing about the numbers. What I think he meant was what Carolina was doing was working, and he was happy with that. Here's more of that same quote:

With me and Jonathan back there and sharing it the way we do, that’s a real treat and neither one of us is going to get worn out."

You could take this part of the quote as meaning what has happened in the past is going to continue to happen; ie-Williams getting the larger % of carries, with Stewart close behind.

“It’s going to be close to a 50-50 split no matter what," Williams said. “That’s what the coaching staff and the front office wants and it’s also what Jonathan and I want. It’s good for both of us. We’re at our best when it’s that way."

And here is the first mention I've read from anyone in the Panther organization of a 50-50 split. This I would consider as support for the belief that Stewart will get more carries.To be fair, though, after reading the entire article, and ALL of Williams' statements therein, I believe he was merely pointing out that he was fine with the way things have gone in Carolina the last 2 years, and he saw no need to change. I don't think he was necessarily predicting a shift to more of an even, 50-50 split between him and Stewart.

ETA-The last paragraph is merely my interpretation of what Williams said in this article back in March.

Killer. I didn't know where the quote came from. Thanks. Still high in Williams. Own both.

 

[az_prof]

if the team starts out terrible....what's the ratio then? I'd expect the franchise moves Stewart into a bigger role/carry and lowers DWill's as he moves into the FA market.

I've heard people say this and read people post this idea numerous times, and not just about the Carolina duo. I can't remember a single time, however, when it's actually happened. Has a team ever played a lesser player/back-up just because he was under contract for the next year and the starter wasn't?

In this case, the players are equal; there isn't a "lesser player/back up." Therefore, it might make sense to give the player that is your future more PT when the season appears to be over since the other guy is going to be gone anyway. If the FA player were far superior, no, you wouldn't do that. But that's not the case.

 

[cvnpoka]

5050 is not the most likely scenario but it would not be surprising, and it may be the best. my gut says 55/45 in dw favor. yawn.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

5050 is not the most likely scenario but it would not be surprising, and it may be the best. my gut says 55/45 in dw favor. yawn.

No offense but if it ends up 55/45, the guys who are saying it's 50/50 get credit for being correct here. Nobody is going to get it exactly right down to the percent, being within 5 percent would be pretty darn good. If it ends up being 70/30 for one way, then obviously someone missed the boat.I'm in the camp where Stewart is going to have to prove it to me. I don't like that he's not entirely healthy right now and that's been his problem his entire career.

 

[doubletrouble]

Who cares, both RBs will be over 1k and should have 10+ TDs each

 

[Bayhawks]

if the team starts out terrible....what's the ratio then? I'd expect the franchise moves Stewart into a bigger role/carry and lowers DWill's as he moves into the FA market.

I've heard people say this and read people post this idea numerous times, and not just about the Carolina duo. I can't remember a single time, however, when it's actually happened. Has a team ever played a lesser player/back-up just because he was under contract for the next year and the starter wasn't?

In this case, the players are equal; there isn't a "lesser player/back up." Therefore, it might make sense to give the player that is your future more PT when the season appears to be over since the other guy is going to be gone anyway. If the FA player were far superior, no, you wouldn't do that. But that's not the case.

But I don't think it's ever happened? Montana/Young? Rice/Owens? Watters/Alexander? I can't think of any others, but I don't think it's ever happened. IMO, it's an idea formed by people like us who watch football. It makes sense to us, but isn't utilized by "real" football people b/c it's not practical.

 

[Bayhawks]

Who cares, both RBs will be over 1k and should have 10+ TDs each

The point is that if the situation stays the same as it was the last two years (closer to 60/40 than 50/50), Stewart doesn't have any real value unless Williams gets hurt. His carries and FF points are too sporadic and unpredictable to reliably start him as a FF RB. If the split is 50/50, he should be more reliable (and Williams, conversely, less so). That's why people care.

 

[Grahamburn]

The first thing that popped out at me about the 2009 season and the Carolina Panthers running game is the fact that other than the Minnesota game in week 15 (where DeAngelo was injured and shut down for the year), DeAngelo outrushed Stewart in every single contest. All of them. Every game in which both backs were healthy and on the field, DeAngelo led the team in rushing yards, carries, and overall touches.

2009 Carolina Game Logs

That's very telling about how the Carolina coaching staff sees the running game when both backs are healthy. I realize that Stewart is an extremely talented player, but so is Williams, as evidenced by his yards per carry the last two seasons. They're both going to get carries. The point is that when they're healthy, Williams is clearly the lead back.

It's a fine line to be walking regarding the carry split between these two guys. Some people are projecting a 50/50 split, but I don't see what's changed in Carolina to warrant that line of thinking. If it stays the same way it has been for the last two years (roughly 57%/43%), then Williams is the player you can confidently insert into your lineup on a weekly basis. If the Panthers want to run the ball 30 times a game, and they do. It'll average out to about 17 for Williams and 13 for Stewart. DeAngelo is more involved in the passing game so he'll be able to supplement a poor rushing day with a few catches.

Stewart's carries and big games are too inconsistent to be a RB2. Unless DeAngelo is injured it's difficult to count on him for consistent fantasy points. I'd be ecstatic with him as a RB3, because he'll approach 1,000 yards and double digit TDs, but you'll never know when they're coming.

If anyone cares, I'm a Stewart owner.

 

[DropKick]

Stewart won't get the majority of the carries until Williams gets hurt or declines in effectiveness.

Not only is this a good post, but he did it without having to use those cute little nicknames for the players. What a breath of fresh air that is.

Like "JohnnyU"?But, agreed, forced nicknames are pretty weak.57.364% / 42.636% Williams. And I'm not worried about Stewart's injury status. Seems like their annual MO is to put some tag on Stewart only to declare him ready for the start of the season.Stewart's price tag is (too?) high. Won't describe him as boom/bust based on ADP because, even with a healthy Williams, he is a viable fill-in or borderline #2 starter.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The first thing that popped out at me about the 2009 season and the Carolina Panthers running game is the fact that other than the Minnesota game in week 15 (where DeAngelo was injured and shut down for the year), DeAngelo outrushed Stewart in every single contest. All of them. Every game in which both backs were healthy and on the field, DeAngelo led the team in rushing yards, carries, and overall touches.

Regarding the bolded part, Stewart was hurt all year, so both backs were never healthy.

 

[MongoL3]

Had both last year in a redraft league and Stewart seemed to have a good week every other week. I usually went with Deangelo when both were healthy but it was a crap shoot most weeks. Luckily Dwill got hurt and rode Stewart to a championship but i cant count on that type of luck again. For where they both go in drafts i will let someone else worry about that headache.

 

[Grahamburn]

The first thing that popped out at me about the 2009 season and the Carolina Panthers running game is the fact that other than the Minnesota game in week 15 (where DeAngelo was injured and shut down for the year), DeAngelo outrushed Stewart in every single contest. All of them. Every game in which both backs were healthy and on the field, DeAngelo led the team in rushing yards, carries, and overall touches.

Regarding the bolded part, Stewart was hurt all year, so both backs were never healthy.

Semantics. Stewart didn't miss a game all season, and he looked pretty great to me carrying the load at the end of the year. The fact that Stewart has been nicked up for two straight years is an idictment of his ability to ever be 100% healthy. He still isn't participating in camp yet. I realize he had surgery to correct his issues, and I do hope he gets to the point where he is completely injury free.

That being said, if he can't get healthy or stay healthy. How is he going to earn more carries? If anything, Carolina would be more inclined to lighten his load to keep him from constantly being on the injury report.

 

[Bayhawks]

The first thing that popped out at me about the 2009 season and the Carolina Panthers running game is the fact that other than the Minnesota game in week 15 (where DeAngelo was injured and shut down for the year), DeAngelo outrushed Stewart in every single contest. All of them. Every game in which both backs were healthy and on the field, DeAngelo led the team in rushing yards, carries, and overall touches.

Regarding the bolded part, Stewart was hurt all year, so both backs were never healthy.

But he's still not 100% (by his own admission), so nothing's changed.Rephrase: when both backs were healthy enough to be on the field, here are Stewart's FF points (assuming FBG scoring, using decimal scoring, and no PPR):

game 1-6.7

game 2-7.9

game 3-0.1

game 4-10.5

game 5-17.0

game 6-4.5

game 7-8.7

game 8-3.8

game 9-20.2

game 10-4.3

game 11-3.5

game 12-18.6

game 13-2.9

game 14-18.3

To clarify what Grahamburn posted, the only week where Stewart outrushed Williams WHEN BOTH RBS WERE ABLE TO PLAY, was week 14, when Williams re-injured his ankle and only got 6 carries.

So, until Williams was lost for the year, Stewart averaged 9.1 FF ppg. Furthermore 9/14 games were BELOW that 9.1 ppg average. I can't imagine anyone being comfortable with that as your RB2.

If the situation stays the same this year, that is what you can expect, a boom or bust RB. If he's your RB3, that's not that bad, but as RB2, I wouldn't want that.

 

[Manster]

all you gotta do is think like the panthers and not in terms of FF.

they are going to run the crap outta the ball. why wouldnt they do a close to 50-50 split? keep both guys fresh.

BUT, DWill is a tad more explosive and has a little more upside.

if one is not healthy the other is a top 5 RB easy. both healthy, DWill is the guy to have imo. although Stew might represent the better value.

 

[Grahamburn]

all you gotta do is think like the panthers and not in terms of FF.

they are going to run the crap outta the ball. why wouldnt they do a close to 50-50 split? keep both guys fresh.

BUT, DWill is a tad more explosive and has a little more upside.

if one is not healthy the other is a top 5 RB easy. both healthy, DWill is the guy to have imo. although Stew might represent the better value.

They already are close to a 50/50 split. I doubt the Panthers are concerned with carry totals during a game. They aren't looking at the playbook saying "Well, we gave that last carry to DeAngelo, let's give the next one to Jonathan."Historically, which is two seasons with these two players, they're about 57/43 in favor of Williams when both backs suit up. That's extremely close to 50/50 in my eyes, but it's a significant enough difference to make Williams the much more reliable player.

I don't see the reasoning behind taking carries away from the player with the career 5.1 ypc average (5.5 and 5.2 in these last two seasons respectively) in favor of the player with the career 4.9 ypc average.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

The first thing that popped out at me about the 2009 season and the Carolina Panthers running game is the fact that other than the Minnesota game in week 15 (where DeAngelo was injured and shut down for the year), DeAngelo outrushed Stewart in every single contest. All of them. Every game in which both backs were healthy and on the field, DeAngelo led the team in rushing yards, carries, and overall touches.

Regarding the bolded part, Stewart was hurt all year, so both backs were never healthy.

But he's still not 100% (by his own admission), so nothing's changed.Rephrase: when both backs were healthy enough to be on the field, here are Stewart's FF points (assuming FBG scoring, using decimal scoring, and no PPR):

game 1-6.7

game 2-7.9

game 3-0.1

game 4-10.5

game 5-17.0

game 6-4.5

game 7-8.7

game 8-3.8

game 9-20.2

game 10-4.3

game 11-3.5

game 12-18.6

game 13-2.9

game 14-18.3

To clarify what Grahamburn posted, the only week where Stewart outrushed Williams WHEN BOTH RBS WERE ABLE TO PLAY, was week 14, when Williams re-injured his ankle and only got 6 carries.

So, until Williams was lost for the year, Stewart averaged 9.1 FF ppg. Furthermore 9/14 games were BELOW that 9.1 ppg average. I can't imagine anyone being comfortable with that as your RB2.

If the situation stays the same this year, that is what you can expect, a boom or bust RB. If he's your RB3, that's not that bad, but as RB2, I wouldn't want that.

 

[HenryMuto]

USA Today quote on Stewart ranking

13. Jonathan Stewart - Apparently, not many people have seen Stewart play. I noticed him ranked twentieth among running backs by NFL.com. Please, whoever makes those rankings, watch some clips of this guy. Dude has destructive power, speed to turn the corner, and insane open-field moves. Playing hurt, he had 100-plus yards in four of his last five games, and is now healthy. Give me "The Daily Show" in the third round over DeAngelo Williams in the late first all day long. Because Stewart is better.

 

[Bayhawks]

USA Today quote on Stewart ranking13. Jonathan Stewart - Apparently, not many people have seen Stewart play. I noticed him ranked twentieth among running backs by NFL.com. Please, whoever makes those rankings, watch some clips of this guy. Dude has destructive power, speed to turn the corner, and insane open-field moves. Playing hurt, he had 100-plus yards in four of his last five games, and is now healthy. Give me "The Daily Show" in the third round over DeAngelo Williams in the late first all day long. Because Stewart is better.

Here's the thing. Whoever wrote this report didn't dig that deep.1) While Stewart does have "destructive power," Williams has more speed to turn the corner, and his open-field moves are better, as well.2) Those 4 100 yard games were all games in which Stewart got 16+ carries. Guess how many 16+ carry games he had when Williams was healthy? TWO.Why would you want a RB in the 3rd round who is going to average 11 carries a game? Because unless something changes, that is about what Stewart will get.

 

[jurb26]

Stewart love on this board has been out of control for over 2 years now.

 

[jurb26]

5050 is not the most likely scenario but it would not be surprising, and it may be the best. my gut says 55/45 in dw favor. yawn.

No offense but if it ends up 55/45, the guys who are saying it's 50/50 get credit for being correct here. Nobody is going to get it exactly right down to the percent, being within 5 percent would be pretty darn good. If it ends up being 70/30 for one way, then obviously someone missed the boat.

I'm not sure I understand this. Most people who think Williams will get more carries think it's going to be the same split that it has been for the past 2 years, 60/40. So if it ends up 55/45 are both camps now correct?

 

[xenon]

Anyone consider drafting and potentially starting both of them?

 

[fightingillini]

Are we really arguing at great length about whether the split will be 56-44 or 50/50? Now that Stewart is expected to be fully healthy and is more of a veteran himself, a little safer in protection, etc. I think a 50/50 split is a pretty good bet, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if DeAngelo remaines the 'starter' and gets a few more carries. I just don't think agruing over whether it'll be 56/44 or 50/50 is worth a lot of argument, particularly where both have a history of being nicked now and then, and this year's nicks probably will have a lot more to say about the split than any pre-season split differential - even if we knew exactly what Fox was planning to do. I sugest you each take the guy you like better and wish each other well.

Catbird,It's not so much the percentages of the carries, exactly, but rather how they are distributed. If Williams continues to get approximately 55-60% of the carries, IN THE SAME WAY THE CARRIES HAVE BEEN SPLIT the last two years, then he will be a viable FF starter (whether he'll be a RB1 or RB2 is another debate) and Stewart will not be a RELIABLE FF RB2. The last 2 years, when both backs have been healthy, Williams has been a consistent, reliable FF RB. Stewart has not, because his carries have not been consistent or reliable. He'd go 6 carries for 12 yards in week 6 (2008) against TB, then 15 carries for 115 and 2 TDs in week 13 against TB. He'd get 17 carries one game, and only 7 the next. If Fox decides to go to a 50/50 split, it would likely cause that to change. Williams would get less carries, becoming less reliable and consistent, and Stewart would get more, becoming more reliable and consistent. It's not as simple as saying "it's only a 6% difference in carries (about 25 or so a season), so I'll just take one or the other." The way those carries are distributed are the key.

If the carries are split 50/50, you could have DWill get 22 car in one game and 10 in another, depending on the gameflow and how each back is doing. I would be very worried about spending a 1st round or even early 2nd round pick on DAngelo if he's at risk for only getting 10-15 carries for a good number of games.

 

[Thanatos]

Why do I feel like I'm reading a repeat of last years DeAngelo Williams versus Jonathan Stewart debate? I swear if I go look it up it will be virtually the same thread, carbon copied with the addition of the 2009 stats added.

At this point I don't feel any different about this situation than I did a year ago.

 

[Nate]

It would be the height of stupidity for Carolina not to use both of these guys a lot.

 

[OnThInIcE911]

J-Stew owners need to stop deluding themselves into thinking JS will ever overtake DA on the depth chart until DA's skills begin to decline or he leaves the team. We have a pretty good sample size of what happens when they are both healthy and nothing points to it changing. Fox loves his vets so just keep praying for injuries.

 

[Steelfan7]

Basically, he had a bone spur which rubbed against the Achilles and aggravated it. There is nothing wrong with his Achilles.I have not seen any quotes from the Panthers that suggest any concern about Stewart's health, despite him not being 100% yet. Everything I have read suggests the surgery was not major and corrective. I have not seen anything that indicates the Panthers being concerned about it, which tells me they are just being cautious. If there is something that says otherwise, I have not seen it. I have also not seen any quotes from the Panthers coaches regarding how the carries will be divided. If there are some, I'd like to see them. Those are the things that I have based a lot of my opinions on.

I believe you are down playing Stewart's post surgery condition. It does not take 7+ months to recover from typical minor cleanup type surgery.

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

Saturday morning: Stewart's back