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Will the Real Ed Reed Please Stand Up (1 Viewer)

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
reed is probably one of the biggest head scratchers in the IDP world, coming off his worst pro season... of course he was hurt last season, so maybe things will be back to normal... but maybe not so fast...

in previous seasons (year before he beat out james farrior for defensive POY) he overcame a lack of huge tackle numbers playing behind ray lewis with lots of big plays... INTs, & the occasional sack, FF & INT... sometimes on the same play (i think he did this to brunell)...

INTs are notoriously capricious & hard to replicate from season to season, except for all but a few players (active safeties - darren sharper & tony parrish)... i distinctly remember citing as a positive before last season that CBs can be avoided, whereas safeties can't so easily...

connected with that thought, in PFW team report issue that just hit newssatnds, there was a cool article on new breed of safeties (also roy williams, sean taylor, troy polamalu, bob sanders, michael boulware, etc)... it used to be a forsaken position... you went there if you weren't quick or fast or athletic enough to play CB... but in recent seasons, some of the best overall defenders in the league are playing the position...

polamalu was a huge part of the PIT defense last season, a big difference maker that may have been difference between making/winning super bowl or not (& probably supplanted farrior as team's most dangerous & explosive defensive player that offenses had to account for most)... he can run & cover like CB, hit like MLB & has instincts & range of safety...

back to the thought of... can an offense avoid a safety like throwing away from CB... PFW quoted NFL personnel guy or scout saying in reference to taylor... why cover half the field when you can cover the whole field? interesting thought, & i hadn't heard it put in quite that way before...

i did hear last season reporting that it DID seem as QBs were very cognizant of where reed was on every play... so while they couldn't just simply throw to one side like if he was CB... presumably if he cheated up they could throw over him, if he was back the could in turn throw short... it does stand to reason that after his monster 2004 season he would have an even higher profile... with lewis out or hurt a lot, reed would have been their most dangerous defensive player...

sorry for the circuitous preamble to the question here for the board, & hopefully grist for the IDP conversational mill...

can a safety be avoided almost as effectively as CB if offense is determined to (it could involve opting to not go downfield as much, contingent on where reed lines up)... is anybody else concerned that reed could be looking at fewer INTs going forward (or was 2005 just a transient situation & we shouldn't read to much into it in the way of trends?)...

 
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I don't see any reason why you couldn't avoid a ball-hawking safety altogether.

However, I haven't noticed that teams are avoiding the deep zones patrolled by the elite ball-hawking safeties. Most OCs just aren't willing to throw that many pages out of the playbook. I saw Reed and Polamalu challenged many times last season. Both are very aggressive and willing to take chances and rely on their recovery speed to bail them out. Teams can beat them by overloading their zones with receivers and using ball fakes, double moves, etc. Of course, you've got to have the personnel to pull it off.

I think Reed's coverage stats are pretty dependent on the overall success of the team. When the Ravens are behind, Reed doesn't have the same number of opportunities to make big plays against opposing quarterbacks taking chances. Also, Reed doesn't get to see the crappy Bengals QB du jour or Tommy Maddox four times a season. Frye should be an improvement as well. You'd think the pass rush would impact Reed opportunities as well, but the Ravens had two more sacks last season than in 2004, when Reed had his career season.

I see Reed's counting stats in the 3-5 INT and 10-15 PD range this season. And since he didn't project above 70 tackles last season, he likely never will. I think his career seasons are behind him, but given his premier ball skills, instincts, and the way the Ravens will use him, his stats should be solid enough to keep him among the top ten safeties.

 
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thanx, jene...

great response... one of your points made me think...

about that he was tested often... i wonder if he was tested EVEN MORE previous three seasons. leading up to the apex where he was establihing himeself as one of best overall defenders (not just DB or safety) in NFL... probably not too much of a stretch to think so his rookie year, & maybe even soph, but he can't have been much of a surprise after?

if they have stat on how many times a DB is tested, i don't have them... :) which is why homer, regional insider perspective is so invaluable in cases like this... & what makes shark pool & IDP boards such great resources, being storehouses of all those multiple perspectives from all over the country...

good points about QB position being upgraded big time within division... i almost noted that earlier... palmer & roethliesberger don't throw a lot of INTs...

its hard to not think about pass rush, too, like you also observed... ngata might not only help ray ray but suggs if he can consistently command double teams... a breakout season by suggs (he has the talent to take it to next level) might force a few more spaz throws per season...

and another good point about overall situation & whether they have lead on a regular basis... with mcnair, healthy lewis, mason reunited with mcnair, clayton's second season coming off a spectacular 2005 second half, heap healthy, OL healthier, the stars are aligned for a potentially much better season on offense this year... i could easily see that last factor alone leading to anywhere from 1-3 more INTs over course of season...

reed has proven he is one of most dangerous in business once ball is in his hands (TDs on defense & ST in past)... the more INTs he gets, increases the liklihood he gets a TD, which could bump him up a half dozen spots if he would have otherwise been in a tight grouping of DBs in IDP scoring...

 
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Good analysis all around guys, nothing that I can really add, but I'll reiterate that Reed's value has taken a hit because the Ravens haven't been front runners the last few years. Also, I agree with Bob, but would go even farther, he is the most dangerous DB in the league once he has the ball - his long returns are astounding considering that as a safety he doesnt get cheap ones like CBs do (jumping out patterns and going to the end zone unimpeded)

 

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