I am sure I will get flamed no mater what I post, as I have been tabbed as both the biggest Brady lover and Brady hater by different people. I hate to ever agree with
Eli Manning, but I think it will be tougher for Brady than people are making it out to be. Brady's numbers have been dropping the last few years. Many will point to the rest of the NE offense and not Brady as the cause for this, and I am not sure I am 100% on board with that conclusion.
Here were his annual passer rating numbers: 2016: 112.2, 2017: 102.8, 2018: 97.7, 2019: 88.0
Here were his PFF rating scores (and rankings): 2016: 98.0 (1), 2017: 95.5 (1), 2018: 90.7 (5), 2019: 80.4 (10)
I watched all of NE's games last season, and IMO, Brady was not as sharp as in prior seasons. Maybe that's because he knew he was leaving after the season, the lack of talent, injuries, play calling . . . who knows. He had 4 strong games at the beginning of the season, but really struggled over the second half of the season . . . which BTW was when his OL was healthy and played the best it did all season.
Week 09: 80.4 rating, 6.2 YPA
Week 10: 67.3 rating, 4.6 YPA
Week 11: 70.8 rating, 5.1 YPA
Week 12: 85.9 rating, 6.9 YPA
Week 13: 63.3 rating, 4.7 YPA
Week 14: 86.6 rating, 4.4 YPA
Week 15: 111 rating, 8.2 YPA
Week 16: 88.4 rating, 7.6 YPA
Playoff: 59.4 rating, 5.6 YPA
Over that stretch, Brady had a 56.5% completion, 5.9 YPA, and 78.5 passer rating. To put things into perspective, here's where Brady would have ranked in those categories if he had performed at that level over the entire season:
Completion%: 32 out of 32 qualified QB, YPA: 32 out of 32 qualified QB, Passer Rating: 31 out of 32 qualified QB (Andy Dalton was at 78.3)
By comparison, let's look at Peyton Manning's 2014 season, where his YEARLY TOTALS looked good (66.2% completion, 4,727 passing yards, 39 TD, 15 INT, 7.9 YPA, 101.5 passer rating). But his second half of the season numbers didn't look anywhere near as good. Over his final 8 games: 62.7% completion, 84.6 passer rating, 6.9 YPA. Like I just spelled out for Brady, had Manning produced like that over the entire season:
Completion%: 21 out of 32 qualified QB, YPA: 27 out of 32 qualified QB, Passer Rating: 23 out of 32 qualified QB
We all know what happened to Manning the following year at 39 . . . playing with the same great batch of offensive players he did the season before.
I get it . . . Brady hasn't had multiple neck surgeries. He's moving to a team with more weapons. It's potentially the greatest collection of offensive talent he's ever played with. But it doesn't change he will be 43 years old. Playing with an entirely different set of players (except Gronk). In a new system. Without the demanding standards of BB. Potentially with very little ramp up or practice time. IMO, there's a reason BB didn't want Brady (not the other way around), and it's not just about money (NE could have figured out a way to get under the cap if they actually wanted him).
I don't believe 2020 Tom Brady is anywhere near 2007 Tom Brady, and that's the offensive comparison I have seen people making. I hope I'm wrong, as I love Brady. I really do hope he does well in Tampa. But I think he and the Bucs will have a lot of bumps along the way and things may not play out in the way some people are predicting. IMO, at 43, Brady is an average QB with good weapons. I don't think he will come anywhere near 5,000 passing yards. I think he will be a lot closer to 4K than 5K (if he plays 16 games).